democrat hillary clinton appears to have a slight edge over republican rival donald trump in a number of battleground states and among important demographic groups based on an analysis of the millions of votes already cast both at polling places and by absentee ballot. mrs. clinton is seeing positive signs of enthusiasm in such states as florida and nevada. she is also seeing strong turnout rates in the early vote from latinos and women. but mr. trump may have an advantage in the midwestern battlegrounds of ohio and iowa, where democratic voter interest appears to be flagging compared with the 2012 presidential, records show. according to data compiled by the united states elections project and the associated press, at least 17 million votes had already been cast as of<u+00a0>friday. early voting is under way in a number of top-tier battlegrounds including florida, nevada, iowa and north carolina. absentee voting has been happening in some form in every state, thanks to laws that require military and overseas ballots to be ready by september. <u+201c>clinton has opened up a national lead in the polling, and there are some states that have been following that lead in the state polling,<u+201d> said michael mcdonald, who runs the united states elections project and is one of the foremost experts on early voting. <u+201c>we can also see similar patterns of movement in the early vote as well.<u+201d> ballots are secret, but many states release the partisan registration of the voters requesting and returning absentee ballots or voting in-person. while those numbers don<u+2019>t take into account voters who cross over and vote for a candidate of the other party, the early numbers can provide clues into voter enthusiasm and the potential makeup of the electorate. in florida, republicans typically have an advantage in early and absentee voting numbers, but this year, the parties are in a virtual dead heat in ballot returns and votes cast. democrats also cite an increase in female and latino participation in early voting, with the clinton campaign using state data to note that 133,000 latino voters have returned ballots<u+2014>a 99% increase from this point in 2012. republicans note that the early-voting sites in some gop-leaning counties aren<u+2019>t yet open. in nevada, the first week of early and absentee voting showed democrats ahead by about 25,000 votes on the strength of returns in clark county, the state<u+2019>s population center that includes las vegas. democrats attribute their strength among the state<u+2019>s latino voters for the increase. republicans are running in closer in washoe county, home to reno. the gop is also ahead in absentee ballots statewide. in north carolina , the number of early voting sites in the state has been reduced since the last election, but participation is about on par with this point in 2012. as of friday, democrats led in early voting and absentee-ballot returns in north carolina by more than 100,000 votes. despite a strong early performance in 2012, president barack obama lost north carolina that year, and mrs. clinton will need big turnout from black voters, who are down as a share of voters in early returns, according to state data. only a handful of states release data about the gender of early voters, but the figures that are available shows female ballot returns are outpacing male ones, according to numbers compiled by the united states elections project. mrs. clinton has built her polling lead on her strength with women. republican operatives say they aren<u+2019>t alarmed by early voting trends in the battleground states, with one republican national committee official saying the states the party hopes to win are still within reach. in iowa and ohio, early voting points to lackluster democratic interest rather than a groundswell of republican enthusiasm. key counties around cleveland and columbus show lower levels of democratic early voting, mr. mcdonald said. the story is similar in iowa, where republicans are flat in terms of ballots requested, at about 175,000, and the 116,000 ballots that have been already cast is down about 11,000 from four years ago. democrats, however, are down much more, and mrs. clinton on friday headed to iowa to try to boost those numbers. <u+2014>dante chinni contributed to this article. write to byron tau at byron.tau@wsj.com
early voting bolsters hillary clinton in key states - wsj
byron tau