democrats stand on the brink of narrowly recapturing the senate majority they lost two years ago, with control of the chamber depending on the outcome of a handful of fierce races in battleground states. republicans remain competitive, despite having to defend many more seats than democrats and contend with a polarizing gop presidential nominee. but nonpartisan political analysts predicted that democrats would likely eke out a slender victory in the marathon, expensive contest in which decisions in the closest races could stretch into wednesday morning or beyond. the senate contest<u+2019>s momentum has seemed to swing between the two parties for months as democratic presidential nominee hillary clinton and gop nominee donald trump surged or slipped in the polls. but as mrs. clinton stabilized with a narrow lead in the election<u+2019>s final weeks, democratic officials redirected their money and energy toward the struggle for the senate majority, countered by a late surge of gop funds. <u+201c>navigating the presidential top of the ticket has been a challenge in both parties,<u+201d> said scott reed, senior political strategist at the u.s. chamber of commerce, which has worked to keep the senate in gop hands. given that republicans are defending 24 seats, versus 10 for democrats, <u+201c>the fact that we<u+2019>re in it late is a testament to the quality of the candidates, because history would have us being washed out to sea.<u+201d> neither party is expected to win the 60 votes most bills need to clear the chamber. but the composition of the senate will dramatically help shape the dynamic between congress and the white house, potentially providing mrs. clinton, should she win, a legislative ally to counter the house, which is likely to remain in gop control. a republican-controlled senate, on the other hand, would intensify the ability of congress to thwart a democratic president<u+2019>s legislative agenda and stymie her nominees. if mr. trump is elected president, a democratic senate would be a bastion of legislative resistance to his administration and a gop-controlled house, while a gop senate would give republicans total control of the white house and congress. some early-voting data has showed momentum for democrats as hispanic voters appeared to turn out in record numbers in some swing states. early voting in nevada, likely republicans<u+2019> only opportunity to pick up a democratic-controlled seat, showed more democratic participation, with an energized hispanic population. that could give catherine cortez masto an edge in her nail-biter race against gop rep. joe heck to replace retiring senate minority leader harry reid. if democrats keep the nevada seat and mrs. clinton is elected, they would need just four other seats to recapture control of the senate, because tim kaine would cast a tie-breaking vote as vice president. republicans currently hold 54 of the chamber<u+2019>s 100 seats. one of the biggest questions this year is whether voters will split their tickets and opt for both a democratic presidential nominee and a republican senator. president barack obama won many of the states where races this year will determine control of the senate, and mrs. clinton is leading in many of them. in an increasingly polarized country, voters have been less willing to vote for each party in a given election, with ticket splitting hitting a 52-year low in 2012. but with mr. trump<u+2019>s appeal cutting more across lines of race and education, this election could upend recent history. republican candidates would almost certainly need to win over some of mrs. clinton<u+2019>s supporters if they are to keep control of the senate. for instance, in pennsylvania<u+2014>this year<u+2019>s most expensive senate race<u+2014>gop incumbent pat toomey has been outperforming mr. trump but still faces a challenge overcoming democratic turnout tied to mrs. clinton<u+2019>s nearly 3-percentage point lead in his state, according to the real clear politics average of recent polls. his democratic challenger, katie mcginty, was ahead by 2 points in the polling average on monday. the senate races will also be a referendum on which gop strategies were successful in navigating the challenge of mr. trump and his controversies. mr. toomey has declined to say whether he will vote for mr. trump. running against democratic gov. maggie hassan in new hampshire, gop sen. kelly ayotte struggled to define her position on mr. trump, saying at one point he could be a role model for children before quickly retracting it. in early october, ms. ayotte said she wouldn<u+2019>t vote for mr. trump after a 2005 video surfaced in which he uses crude sexual terms to describe grabbing women without their consent. more recently, democrats have also contended with negative headlines tied to their presidential nominee. particularly in conservative-leaning states like missouri , the late october announcement that the federal bureau of investigation was examining new emails that could be connected to mrs. clinton<u+2019>s use of a private email server could hurt democrats like jason kander, missouri<u+2019>s secretary of state, who is running against gop sen. roy blunt. the fbi said sunday its review gave it no reason to reverse its earlier recommendation that mrs. clinton not face charges. in illinois, gop sen. mark kirk is expected to be ousted by his democratic challenger, u.s. rep. tammy duckworth. for months, gop sen. ron johnson had been considered likely to lose in wisconsin, but that race against democratic former sen. russ feingold has tightened. gop sen. richard burr of north carolina has been locked in an increasingly competitive race against democrat deborah ross in a state whose surge of new residents may make it the most closely divided in the country this year. and in indiana, former democratic sen. evan bayh jumped into the senate race against gop rep. todd young in july with a strong lead based on his widespread name recognition, but he has faced a barrage of attacks since then over his residency and post-senate work in washington, leaving the race in a dead heat. if the chamber is split at 50-50 next year, the 2017 race to fill mr. kaine<u+2019>s senate seat could give republicans a path to regain power earlier than the 2018 midterms. write to kristina peterson at kristina.peterson@wsj.com
control of the senate goes down to the wire - wsj
kristina peterson