republicans say social security<u+2019>s support for people with disabilities will be 'broke' next year; the obama budget suggests the system needs only a patch. but both sides agree: something must be done by 2016.









why are americans more open to torture than other nations?









senate budget committee ranking member sen. bernie sanders (i) of vermont (l.) talks as committee chairman sen. michael enzi (r) of wyoming listens during a hearing of the senate budget committee on capitol hill in washington earlier this month









in the wake of republican victories in the election last fall, pundits warned that congress would be at loggerheads with president obama on a number of budget issues in 2015, including over highway funding and the department of homeland security.









not high on the list of hot topics: social security.









yet the vaunted social insurance system is suddenly a hot part of the fiscal debate in washington <u+2013> and it's not waiting for 2016 elections. the new obama budget proposes a patch to the program<u+2019>s support for people with disabilities, but republicans say the system needs an overhaul,<u+00a0>not a band-aid.









how urgent an issue is this? specifically, how real is the financial trouble for the disability program?









the two sides are far apart on their characterizations, but they agree that something needs to be done, and a good case can be made that the reality is between the extremes.









many democrats and liberals say, in effect, that social security<u+2019>s disability insurance program is in trouble only<u+00a0>if republicans refuse to rubber stamp mr. obama<u+2019>s fix.









sen. bernie sanders (i) of vermont, the<u+00a0>top member of the democratic caucus on the senate budget committee,<u+00a0>accused republicans of trying <u+201c>to manufacture a crisis where none exists.<u+201d>









on the republican side, sen. mike enzi of wyoming, who chairs that panel, says that <u+201c>by december of next year, the program will be broke.<u+201d>









what's new is that after years of talk about social security's solvency and the need to reform it (or not), congress has come to its first definitive fork in the road on the issue. perhaps the problem isn<u+2019>t as dire as republicans say it is, but obama also might not have a slam-dunk case for his patch.









a good many economists agree with the republican view that reforms are needed to keep the system solvent <u+2013> and the sooner they<u+2019>re enacted, the better it will be for the nation<u+2019>s fiscal health.









here are key facts behind the rhetoric:









these facts suggest that republican sen. orrin hatch of utah had a valid point when he argued this week on the senate floor that <u+201c>having a joint trust fund exhaustion as a target doesn<u+2019>t solve any fundamental financial problem facing ... social security.<u+201d>









at the same time, democrats have a point when they note that rebalancing the tax revenues between the two trust funds has been done by congress many times in the past.









the nonpartisan committee for a responsible federal budget notes that congress has reallocated<u+00a0>tax receipts between these two funds in the past, but generally accompanied by reforms to social security.









house republicans are seeking to block any such reallocation, unless it<u+2019>s accompanied by reforms to shore up social security so promised benefits can be paid beyond 2033.









the social security trustees said in their 2014 annual report that although congress may consider another rebalancing, such a move "might serve to delay di reforms and much needed financial corrections for oasdi as a whole."









regardless of whether the tax flows are rebalanced, the two programs may call for<u+00a0>differing reforms to bolster their solvency.









in the old-age program, possible fixes include asking high-earning americans to shoulder bigger tax burdens, modestly raising the retirement age, and adjusting the inflation index used for benefits (so that annual cost-of-living increases aren<u+2019>t so big).









on the disability side, changes might include expanding incentives for people to work rather than rely on di benefits. <u+201c>increasing employment among individuals with disabilities could improve their economic well-being and increase their autonomy while also reducing the fiscal strains on social security,<u+201d> stanford university economist mark duggan argued at a senate hearing this week.









the disability program has grown markedly in recent years. by 2012 it was accounting for 18 percent of all social security benefits, up from 10 percent in 1970, according to the nonpartisan congressional budget office.









much of the expansion stemmed from demographics, as an aging population included more people developing disabilities in their later work years, a 2013 cbo analysis concluded. but it also<u+00a0>found the growth in the program<u+00a0>to be related to 1984 legislation that loosened the definition of conditions qualifying as disabilities, and in fluctuations in the economy <u+2013> such as the long jobs drought following the 2008 financial crisis.









<u+201c>the di rolls have barely grown for the last two years,<u+201d> notes kathy ruffing of the liberal center on budget and policy priorities.









that slowdown coincides with an easing of demographic pressures on the program, as the baby boomers retire, as well as the improving economy.
funding shortfall for social security disability program: is it real?
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