donald trump<u+2019>s rise is spurring a backlash from latino communities across america that has the potential to prove a formidable barrier to the billionaire<u+2019>s success in the november presidential election.









from florida to nevada, arizona to iowa, and countless other states beyond, there is evidence that the sleeping giant of the latino vote is stirring. trump<u+2019>s favorability ratings with hispanic voters are running at historic lows, while he faces an increasingly well-organized nationwide campaign to oppose him.









a guardian exploration of three key swing states and survey of national hispanic outreach groups has found that the presumptive republican nominee faces an uphill struggle to repair the damage caused by his threats to deport all 11 million undocumented immigrants and build a wall with mexico.









a poll of hispanic americans carried out by latino decisions and america<u+2019>s voice in april found some 87% of latinos felt unfavorably towards him. significantly, almost half said they felt more enthusiastic about voting in the presidential election than they did four years ago, and 41% of those said it was because they wanted to <u+201c>stop trump<u+201d>.









in florida, groups report that new hispanic voter registrations are running at 1,000 a week. (some 2.6 million hispanics are eligible to vote in florida for this year<u+2019>s general election, and about 800,000 of them have not yet registered.)









that unprecedented number corresponds <u+2013> not coincidentally, latino organizers believe <u+2013> with polls that show almost nine in 10 latino floridians view trump unfavorably.



















in iowa, the latino community has been virtually silent until this year. in 2012 only 1,000 latinos participated in the iowa presidential caucuses; this year the number soared to 13,000 <u+2013> about 25% of all registered hispanic voters.









<u+201c>clearly they were worried about the rhetoric, specifically of trump. we could not have mobilized the community anything like as effectively without him,<u+201d> said joe henry of the league of united latin american citizens.









in nevada, a state where almost one in five of the 1.9 million eligible voters are latino, an aggressive push to mobilize the community has started to bear fruit among some 362,000 latinos who are still unregistered for the november ballot.









even in arizona, which has voted democratic only once in a presidential race in the past 60 years, hispanic activists hope to bring the state into play by registering up to 75,000 first-time voters. they have already expanded by 125,000 since 2010, to a total of 536,003 registered hispanic voters (14.4% of the overall voter pool).









<u+201c>there is something new going on, something unique in the immigrant community,<u+201d> said luis guti<u+00e9>rrez, a us congress representative for parts of chicago. <u+201c>and it has something to do with the tenor and tone of the presidential race.<u+201d>









to what extent hispanic americans will be motivated to vote by trump<u+2019>s anti-immigrant remarks is one of the great unknowns of 2016. the latino population continues to grow at a faster pace than any other demographic, from 19.5 million eligible latino voters in 2008 to 23.3 million in 2012, with 27.3 million projected by november. that would amount to some 12% of the nation<u+2019>s electorate in 2016.









yet the proportion who actually cast their ballot has remained stubbornly low. in 2012 it was only 48%, much lower than the figures for african americans (66%) and whites (64%).









<u+201c>the latino vote cannot be taken for granted, even with donald trump as the republican nominee,<u+201d> said sylvia manzano, a principal of the political consulting firm latino decisions. <u+201c>telling latino voters that trump is hostile to you is one thing <u+2013> getting them to the polling stations another.<u+201d>









against that backdrop of such unflexed political muscle, there are signs that 2016 may see a larger turnout. mi familia vota, a not-for-profit group devoted to encouraging hispanic participation, has reported a surge in interest in voter registration. in the first four months of this year it helped 18,450 latinos to get on the voter rolls in six states <u+2013> arizona, california, colorado, florida, nevada and texas.









three of those states, florida, colorado and nevada, are likely to be among the handful of battlegrounds where the outcome of the fight for the white house will be decided. small but increasingly well-organized latino populations in north carolina and virginia could also prove significant.









outreach groups have been busily encouraging the 8.8 million hispanic immigrants who are legal us residents to take up citizenship as the first step towards voting. nationally, average requests for citizenship reached 65,000 every month in the five months up to january, with half the applicants being latino. that<u+2019>s a modest 15% increase on the same period in the previous year.









non-partisan groups working to increase hispanic political participation hope to boost that number as the presidential election looms, largely on the back of trump<u+2019>s attacks. in a normal year, some 650,000 green card holders are granted citizenship; this year the groups<u+2019> goal is one million, although with the election now six months away it is not certain how many of those the united states citizenship and immigration services (uscis) would be able to process in time for them to secure a vote by november.









roc<u+00ed>o s<u+00e1>enz of the service employees international union, which is part of a coalition that has helped 12,781 latinos apply for citizenship in more than 300 <u+201c>naturalization workshops<u+201d> around the country, detects a new intensity: <u+201c>there is a sense of urgency as a result of the hateful rhetoric about mass deportations, building walls, calling us criminals <u+2013> this is personal for us.<u+201d>









guardian reporters in three key states sought to answer the increasingly critical question: is 2016 the year the sleeping giant of the hispanic vote wakes up?









it<u+2019>s impossible to overstate the importance of florida: it has (officially at least) sided with the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1996. all of the contests have been close, with obama taking the state in both his presidential runs by fewer than three percentage points.



















that paper-thin margin is vastly overshadowed by the potential of the floridian hispanic population <u+2013> 24% of the total today, up from 17% in 2000. at the same time, the political affiliation of latinos in the state has been drifting steadily towards the democratic party, largely as a result of the influx of left-leaning puerto ricans to central florida.









when you add in the trump effect, the billionaire<u+2019>s prospects appear particularly bleak in florida where recent polls indicate that close to 90% of hispanic voters view him unfavorably.









latinos are registering to vote in <u+201c>unprecedented<u+201d> numbers to oppose him, advocacy groups say.









<u+201c>there<u+2019>s a lot of latinos who are very angry with trump,<u+201d> said vivian rodriguez, president of the democratic hispanic caucus of florida. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s created a wave of latinos who want to get citizenship and get things going to vote in this election cycle.<u+201d>









the most recent figures from florida<u+2019>s division of elections showed that 1.8 million hispanics registered to vote in february<u+2019>s primaries, almost 150,000 more than the number who voted in the 2012 general election, when obama carried the state with more than 60% of the hispanic vote.









with the number of hispanics who registered for the florida primary already so high, the figures suggest there may be an extraordinarily large turnout of latinos for the general election in november. in 2012, the increase in registered hispanic voters after the primary was 110,000. this year, the indications are it will be much greater.



















a record 2.6 million hispanics are eligible to vote in florida, an increase of half a million since 2012 boosted significantly by the mass influx of puerto rican us citizens, particularly around kissimmee and orlando, seeking to escape the worsening economic conditions in their homeland.



















that leaves about 800,000 eligible hispanic voters who have not yet registered and if the feedback being received by the many outreach groups in the state is accurate <u+2013> the national council of la raza alone told the guardian it was signing up new hispanic voters at a rate of about 1,000 a week <u+2013> not many of them are going to be supporting donald trump.









<u+201c>latinos are going to be voting in unprecedented numbers against the villains, the politicians who dehumanize immigrant families to score political points,<u+201d> said maria rodriguez, executive director of flic votes (florida immigrant action committee).









<u+201c>we<u+2019>ve already been seeing the trend of a new generation of younger cuban americans registering as democrats. there<u+2019>s going to be an exodus from the republican party; lots of latino republicans are going to switch to no party affiliation or the democrats.<u+201d>









one of those is luis-carlos fumero, a miami-born cuban who fits kitchens for his uncle<u+2019>s condo renovation company and who fervently supported mitt romney<u+2019>s unsuccessful 2012 campaign. this time he says he will not vote.









<u+201c>i cannot support this man,<u+201d> said fumero, 25, of trump. <u+201c>this nonsense over the wall, not letting muslims into america, what he says about mexicans and about women, this man is loco.<u+201d>









the loss of support from miami<u+2019>s cuban americans could be a body blow to trump<u+2019>s hopes of carrying florida in the general election. historically a bulwark of republican support, the influence of florida<u+2019>s cuban voting bloc has already waned from 46% of the state<u+2019>s eligible hispanic voters in 1990 to barely 30% today, according to pew research.









now there are clear signs that even that bloc might desert the republican candidate, under the weight of obama<u+2019>s opening up of trade and travel with cuba and with the rise of a younger generation of cuban americans who are less ideologically driven.









in february<u+2019>s primary, the heavily hispanic miami-dade was the only county in florida that trump lost, and although he led hillary clinton 41-29 among miami<u+2019>s cuban americans in a bendixen and amandi poll this month, his support level is still far below the 64% romney received from cuban americans statewide in 2012.









perhaps more worryingly for trump, miami<u+2019>s influential republican cuban american political leaders continue to speak out against him. house representatives ileana ros-lehtinen and carlos curbelo have said they cannot vote for him, and tom<u+00e1>s regalado, the mayor of miami and himself a cuban exile, launched a searing attack on the presumptive nominee in the miami herald.









<u+201c>he mistreats people, speaks derisively of people,<u+201d> regalado said. <u+201c>a president<u+2019>s biggest asset is the bully pulpit. this guy is capable of creating national and international chaos.<u+201d>









karina ruiz de diaz, president of the arizona dream act coalition, takes the long view. <u+201c>the latino vote is still very young,<u+201d> she told the guardian. <u+201c>we will reshape the state, it<u+2019>s just going to take a little bit of time.<u+201d>









arizona<u+2019>s electorate is in the midst of rapid change. one in five eligible voters in the state are hispanic, according to a recent analysis by the pew research center. it estimates that 1.3 million arizona latinos will be eligible to vote in 2016, up from 796,000 in 2008.









young latinos make up a large share of the hispanic electorate. nearly twice as many hispanic voters in arizona are millennials, compared with their white counterparts, according to 2014 pew data.









arizona has historically been a conservative state. but the changing demographics and the prospective general election race between trump and clinton has activists and experts predicting that this will be the year arizona latinos realize their political force, and sweep democrats in to power.









<u+201c>it<u+2019>s exciting for us in arizona because we keep getting talked about as a purple state, as possibly a swing state,<u+201d> said kate gallego, the vice-mayor of phoenix.









that would be astonishing. since the second world war, arizona has only once voted for the democratic presidential candidate: bill clinton in 1996. so could it happen?









<u+201c>certainly john mccain thinks so,<u+201d> gallego said, referring to comments recorded at a private fundraiser in which the long-serving arizona senator said trump could threaten his chances of being re-elected. <u+201c>if donald trump is at the top of the ticket, here in arizona, with over 30% of the vote being the hispanic vote, no doubt that this may be the race of my life,<u+201d> mccain is reported to have said.









yet even if record turnout were to turn the solidly red state blue, arizona<u+2019>s 11 electoral votes would probably be superfluous as the outcome is unlikely to shift the dynamics of the race.









if trump is to be the motivation that finally unleashes the electoral power of arizona<u+2019>s latinos, the achievement will not be his alone. he will also have to credit the assistance of two of his most ardent supporters: sheriff joe arpaio of maricopa county, the self-styled <u+201c>toughest sheriff in america<u+201d>, and jan brewer, the former arizona governor who signed into law one of the harshest state immigration measures in the country.









in 2010, arizona enacted senate bill 1070, a draconian law aimed at driving out the state<u+2019>s undocumented immigrants that pushed the state to the forefront of an acrimonious debate over border security and comprehensive immigration reform.









yet instead of disappearing, the law drew many of the state<u+2019>s undocumented immigrants out of the shadows. latinos joined forces with business leaders, concerned about the economic impact of the law. together, tens of thousands marched through the streets of downtown phoenix in opposition.









<u+201c>we have seen many trumps in arizona,<u+201d> said ian danley, a director with one arizona, speaking after a meeting on voter suppression in phoenix. <u+201c>we were birthed out of sb 1070, which is a trump-like policy. we weren<u+2019>t prepared in 2010. we<u+2019>re prepared now.<u+201d>









one arizona, a non-partisan network of hispanic and immigrant groups working to increase latino voter turnout in the state, has registered between 110,000 and 125,000 new voters since 2010, and helped triple the number of latinos enrolled in the state<u+2019>s early voting system. now the network has set itself the ambitious target of registering between 60,000 and 75,000 new voters by november.









because volunteers are restricted from telling registrants who to vote for and the group doesn<u+2019>t track registrants<u+2019> party affiliation, it<u+2019>s hard to assess <u+201c>the trump effect<u+201d>. anecdotally, several volunteers said it was not uncommon for registrants to ask which party trump belonged to and then tick the opposite box.









<u+201c>people are paying a lot of attention,<u+201d> said raquel ter<u+00e1>n, the state director for mi vota familia, sipping vegan horchata at a coffee shop in downtown phoenix.









when donald trump came to arizona in march, he held his rally in fountain hills, a predominantly white town in maricopa county. he was joined by brewer, the former governor, and introduced by arpaio, the controversial sheriff who has cost taxpayers tens of millions of dollars in an ongoing racial profiling case that found his officers had targeted latinos during raids and traffic stops.









<u+201c>we had a little problem. some demonstrators were trying to disrupt,<u+201d> arpaio told the crowd, which began to boo and hiss. <u+201c>if they think they<u+2019>re going to intimidate you and the next president of the united states, it<u+2019>s not going to happen <u+2013> not in this town!<u+201d>









<u+201c>i call that the hate and fear playbook,<u+201d> said petra falcon, a long-time arizona activist and director of the rights group promise arizona. <u+201c>if you want to divide a country or a state, just take out that playbook and start talking about the harm immigrants do <u+2013> they come here to take your jobs. they rob. he took that playbook from arizona and is using it nationally.<u+201d>









the biggest challenge for arizona<u+2019>s democrats remains voter turnout. there are approximately 170,000 more registered republicans than democrats in the state, according to the latest data from the secretary of state<u+2019>s office.









in the primaries on 22 march, 55% of republicans cast ballots, compared with 49% of democrats. however, registered independents, who make up the largest share of arizona voters but are not represented by a party, could not vote in either primary.









at an outlet mall in tempe, jos<u+00e9> barboza and francis sullivan of promise arizona took turns approaching shoppers and sales associates with their clipboards.









jaritma avilez told barboza she was registered to vote and he moved on. but later avilez admitted to the guardian that even though she was registered, she didn<u+2019>t plan on voting in november. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t feel like politics really affects my life,<u+201d> she shrugged.









<u+201c>in november, the latino community is going to come out in large numbers,<u+201d> jocelyn sida, a nevada organizer for mi familia vota, which works to increase hispanic turnout, told the guardian. <u+201c>a lot of millennials like myself are getting involved in leadership roles to educate and engage the community, and it<u+2019>s been very accepting. they<u+2019>re not withdrawing, they<u+2019>re not closing their doors to us. on the contrary they<u+2019>re seeking us out to find ways to get involved.<u+201d>









with 17% of nevada<u+2019>s electorate being hispanic, the latino vote certainly has the potential to deny trump victory through strong turnout. in 2012, 70% of nevada latinos voted for obama, helping him to win the state by a comfortable six-point margin.









<u+201c>all the time trump<u+2019>s yelling about kicking people out the country. it<u+2019>s horrible,<u+201d> said rodulfo martinez, 60, a las vegas construction worker, expressing an anger felt by many. <u+201c>the way he insults us isn<u+2019>t right. many of the things he says about the [border] wall and why latinos come here don<u+2019>t make sense.<u+201d>









a poll last month by latino decisions showed that immigration reform was the most pressing issue for nevada hispanics. the state has the country<u+2019>s largest percentage of undocumented immigrants, many of whom count registered voters as friends and family.









<u+201c>est<u+00e1> loco,<u+201d> said vicky legaspi, 36, echoing fumero in miami. a restaurant owner on las vegas<u+2019>s working-class east side, legaspi nearly choked on a spoon of ice cream when asked if she would vote for the celebrity businessman. <u+201c>he just wants attention. he doesn<u+2019>t care about this country.<u+201d>









ana hernandez, 34, a housekeeper, said trump was <u+201c>mean<u+201d> and <u+201c>has a bad heart<u+201d> and that she intended to vote for clinton because <u+201c>first of all, she<u+2019>s not a racist<u+201d>, setting a somewhat low bar.









latino participation in nevada<u+2019>s 2016 democratic caucus showed a 5% uptick over the 2008 contest, another encouraging sign for clinton, who won the vote in both cycles. the primary season also saw democrats build a 5% lead in voter registration in nevada, while an ongoing <u+201c>naturalization blitz<u+201d> organized by progressive groups has brought thousands of new minority voters into the fray.









at the start of this election season, nevada had 362,000 potential new latino voters, including 42,000 hispanic youth who will come of voting age this cycle and 40,000 legal permanent residents eligible for citizenship, according to mi familia vota.









<u+201c>it<u+2019>s amazing to hear from people who never had a reason to vote, or speaking of the citizenship workshops, people who have never had a reason to become citizens until now,<u+201d> said laura martin, associate director of the progressive leadership alliance of nevada (plan), which promotes civic engagement. <u+201c>we focus on low-income communities of color, so we meet lots of people at the bus station, the welfare office, or outside the dollar store. they used to not care, but now they see donald trump and that<u+2019>s scary to them.<u+201d>









additional reporting by mona chalabi in new york
will latino loathing of trump drive a voter movement to swing the election?
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