on election eve, politico looked at a series of key battlegrounds across the electoral map, 16 places that mattered a lot more than others for reasons of size, voting history or ideology. these were the counties that were poised to play a disproportionate role in electing the president and they did <u+2014> though perhaps not in ways that were expected by donald trump or hillary clinton. here are the 16 battlegrounds revisited, with a look at the role they played in electing trump as president. story continued below 1. miami-dade county as much as any other place in the nation, florida<u+2019>s biggest county drove the pre-election storyline that the nation<u+2019>s biggest swing state was seeing an epic surge in hispanic turnout, one that would all but ensure clinton<u+2019>s path to victory. without florida, trump had no path to the white house. and the way things looked in miami-dade <u+2014> with its long lines and early vote that was up 80 percent above 2012 -- there seemed to be no path for him to overcome the county<u+2019>s expected margins for clinton. in the end, it was indeed a blowout here. clinton won miami-dade by a slightly bigger margin here than barack obama did in 2012, and roughly 100,000 more votes were cast. but it didn<u+2019>t matter because of trump<u+2019>s own margins in the rest of the state. he crushed in north florida and the panhandle -- exit polls put his margin at 58-37 in an area that cast roughly 20 percent of the vote. he ran even better in the gulf coast/mid-florida area, with its many midwestern retirees, 63-37. as evidenced by those regional breakdowns, trump won a greater share of the white vote than mitt romney in 2012: trump won 64 percent, compared to romney<u+2019>s 61 percent. hillary clinton managed to win exactly one out of three white votes in a state where, for all its diversity, white voters still cast 62 percent of the vote. by gabriel debenedetti 2. philadelphia suburbs prior to election day, there was little doubt of trump<u+2019>s popularity outside of southeastern pennsylvania. but that<u+2019>s the part of the state where the population is concentrated, and trump needed a way to overcome a huge expected deficit in philadelphia and polls suggesting he was not running competitively in philly<u+2019>s four populous suburban collar counties. the key number looming over his chances was 492,000 <u+2014> the democratic vote margin produced by philadelphia in 2012. there were signs that clinton would struggle to hit that high water mark; the city<u+2019>s democratic boss, congressman bob brady, said he expected to deliver only a <u+201c>460,000+<u+201d> margin and the clinton campaign held a big election eve rally downtown to remind voters of the election<u+2019>s stakes. when all the votes are counted, clinton<u+2019>s philadelphia margin of victory might be that high. but at the moment, with 99 percent of precincts reporting, the margin is at 455,000. in the suburbs, clinton ran close to even with obama<u+2019>s pace, and perhaps a little bit ahead. she even managed to win back well-educated and affluent chester county, which voted for romney in 2012 but had low regard for trump. the difference makers, it seems, were places like wilkes-barre<u+2019>s luzerne county in northeastern pennsylvania <u+2014> traditionally democratic white working-class territory. obama carried the county twice, winning 52-47 in 2012. this time around, trump crushed clinton there, 58-39. that<u+2019>s a remarkable 13-point swing in democratic fortunes. in western pennsylvania, where trump was busy racking up 70 and 80 percent of the vote in many counties west of harrisburg, westmoreland county is an instructive example of how trump won. in the largest county in western pennsylvania after pittsburgh<u+2019>s allegheny county, trump needed a big number and he got it. where romney won 61 percent in westmoreland, trump won 64 percent amid higher turnout than in 2012. 3. waukesha county, wisconsin one of the barriers to a trump victory in wisconsin appeared to be his underperformance in the so-called wow counties outside milwaukee (waukesha, ozaukee and washington), led by conservative stronghold waukesha. they would be critical to any chance the gop nominee would have of putting the state back in the republican column for the first time since 1984. by traditional math, trump needed about two-thirds of the vote in waukesha <u+2014> he fell short, winning only 62 percent. that wasn<u+2019>t an anomaly <u+2014> he underperformed by an even bigger margin in another affluent, conservative midwestern suburban stronghold, hamilton county in indiana. but it didn<u+2019>t matter. though he underperformed in the suburban wow counties, turnout in the state<u+2019>s two democratic strongholds, milwaukee county and madison<u+2019>s dane county was smaller than in 2012 -- and dramatically smaller in milwaukee county than four years earlier. trump also blew up wisconsin<u+2019>s 2012 map, winning 63 percent in rural areas, which made up a little over a quarter of the vote, and outpacing romney by 10 points in those areas. another place trump picked up the pace: green bay<u+2019>s brown county. it<u+2019>s a classic swing county <u+2014> the kind of place joe biden was dispatched to. the state<u+2019>s fourth-largest county, it backed george w. bush twice, gov. scott walker in all three of his governor<u+2019>s races, obama in 2008 and then romney narrowly. trump ran slightly ahead of romney there tuesday, but that wasn<u+2019>t the story. the story was clinton, who ran seven points behind obama. white house by blake hounshell 4. northern maine for the first time since adopting its unusual system of awarding electoral votes by congressional district was adopted in 1972, maine split its electoral votes between the two candidates. three went to clinton, who carried the state and the 1st congressional district, and one went to trump, who won the northern-based 2nd district. trump<u+2019>s win there was telegraphed from a mile away: the 2nd district is the less urbanized, less educated and less wealthy of the two districts, and it has suffered through hard economic times with the decline of its paper mill industry. 5. polk county, iowa polk county, home to des moines, is iowa<u+2019>s most populous by a wide margin. there was never any doubt that she would carry the democratic county. but the winning margin mattered so it could offset democratic losses elsewhere. in 2012, obama won polk by 14 points; this time, clinton won by just 11. and the 2016 map bears no resemblance at all to the one four years earlier. back then, it resembled the more traditional iowa divisions, with a conservative western half of the state butting up against democratic eastern iowa. this time, trump showed strength across the state, losing just six of 99 counties. one big difference this time? white men. in 2012, romney carried that demographic, 55-42 percent, according to exit polls. in 2016, however, they thoroughly rejected hillary clinton <u+2014> trump won by 62-31 percent. 2016 by nolan d. mccaskill 6. mahoning county, ohio this white working class county and longtime democratic stronghold doesn<u+2019>t rank as one of the state<u+2019>s biggest. but if trump was truly making gains with his message of economic populism and criticism of trade deals, it would have showed up here in mahoning county. and it did. in a county that obama won by a 63-35 percent landslide against romney, clinton barely hung on for a 50-47 percent win. in similarly situated nearby counties, she flat out lost. among them was neighboring stark county, a bellwether in this heavily blue-collar region that went democratic in the last three presidential elections. there, trump defeated clinton by a wide margin <u+2014> she ran 11 points behind obama<u+2019>s 2012 performance. 7. wake county, north carolina the african-american vote, newcomers to the research triangle area, charlotte<u+2019>s mecklenberg county <u+2014> together there were expected to be key components of hillary clinton<u+2019>s north carolina engine. affluent and well-educated wake county, home to raleigh and the second biggest county in the state, did its part. it thoroughly rejected trump and delivered a 104,000-vote winning margin to clinton, who ran ahead of obama<u+2019>s 2012 pace. mecklenberg county also had a higher turnout and delivered a higher winning margin to clinton than in 2012. but black voters were disproportionately affected by restrictions on early voting and a tightened early vote schedule. and according to exit polls, black voters ended up making up 19 percent of the electorate tuesday, compared to 23 percent in 2012. and african-american voters appeared to give a higher percentage of their vote to obama in 2012 (96 percent) than to clinton (91 percent). at the same time, suburban and rural voters were gravitating toward trump <u+2014> including some places that voted for obama in 2012. a man colors in an electoral map as states are projected for donald trump at an election watching party on nov. 8 in coconut grove, florida, a state the republican nominee ultimately claimed.  | getty 8. oakland county, michigan after detroit<u+2019>s wayne county, suburban oakland county is the most populous in the state with 1.2 million residents. one of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime gop midwestern stronghold, in recent years oakland has drifted toward democrats. polls, which showed clinton winning there by wide margins, suggested it might be a problem for trump. in the end, though, it was macomb county, oakland<u+2019>s more working class neighbor and famed home of reagan democrats, that stole the show. the third biggest county in the state, macomb went gaga for trump. after twice voting for obama, it flipped and gave trump 54 percent of the vote <u+2014> democratic performance dropped 9 points. 9. clark county, nevada as expected, clinton won clark county, the state<u+2019>s population hub and home to las vegas. she slightly underperformed there relative to obama in 2012 but it didn<u+2019>t matter much because she also carried reno<u+2019>s washoe county, the second-most populous in the state. among the reasons she held this swing state for democrats? democrats broke the record for early votes cast amid reports of heavy latino turnout. 10. northern virginia trump showed strength in southwest virginia and in southside but clinton<u+2019>s solid performance among african-americans and dominance in populous northern virginia was enough to overcome anything. according to exit polls, she crushed trump in the d.c. suburbs, 68-27 percent. in the biggest of them, fairfax county, clinton won 65 percent of the vote. she also won comfortably in loudoun and prince william counties in the affluent and highly educated region. by kenneth p. vogel and alex isenstadt 11. arapahoe and jefferson counties, colorado to win colorado, trump needed a much better performance in suburban denver<u+2019>s arapahoe and jefferson counties, both of which have more unaffiliated voters than republicans or democrats. but each county has a significant hispanic population, which made them an uphill challenge for the gop nominee, and trump proved to be an awkward fit for many suburbs -- including these two, where libertarian candidate gary johnson overperformed. 12. hillsborough and rockingham counties, new hampshire trump carried new hampshire<u+2019>s two biggest counties, hillsborough and rockingham, but by such narrow margins that one day later the state remains uncalled and clinton holds a 1,500-vote lead with 100 precincts reporting. hillsborough, home to manchester and nashua, twice voted narrowly for bush and twice for obama. rockingham, however, flipped from obama in 2008 to romney before choosing trump . 13. maricopa county, arizona trump needed to win phoenix<u+2019>s maricopa county, home to roughly two-thirds of arizona voters, to capture the state<u+2019>s 11 electoral votes. and he did precisely that, though he ran six points behind romney<u+2019>s performance. in a sign of the unique gravitational pull of trump<u+2019>s candidacy, he won the county even though a close ally, lightning-rod county sheriff joe arpaio, fell short in his bid for a seventh term. if the exit polls in the state are true, trump assembled an unusual coalition by his standards. according to the exits, he won four out of 10 latino men; college grads and those who make over $100,000 a year. 2016 by bryan bender 14. gwinnett county, georgia after atlanta<u+2019>s fulton county, gwinnett is georgia<u+2019>s second-most populous county. it has voted exclusively republican for president since 1980, but the winning percentages have gradually decreased as gwinnett has evolved into the state<u+2019>s most racially diverse county. trump became the first republican to lose this county since 1976, pulling just 45 percent to clinton<u+2019>s 51 percent. in fact, he lost most of the counties surrounding atlanta but still managed to carry the state by winning big margins in rural georgia. according to state exit polls, trump won 67 percent in rural areas, compared to just 51 percent in the suburbs. 15. salt lake county, utah in 2012, romney defeated obama by 73 percent to 25 percent in utah <u+2014> the largest margin of victory in any state. this year, trump won just 46 percent of the vote -- a 26 point drop-off. much of the drop-off can be traced to salt lake county, home to roughly 4 in 10 utah residents. while all the votes aren<u+2019>t counted, hillary clinton leads by a wide margin over trump in the county, with native son evan mcmullin in third place. clinton<u+2019>s performance might have been a bigger problem were it not for trump<u+2019>s exceptional showing in the more rural parts of the state where he ran up his highest percentages. 16. omaha, neb. while trump was able to steal an electoral vote out of maine, the other state that awards electoral votes by congressional district, clinton was unable to do the same here. the electoral vote is in democratic reach, as the 2008 obama campaign proved when it picked off the omaha-based 2nd district but clinton ran nearly four points behind obama in the key county necessary to win the district. by bill scher by joshua zeitz by thomas wright by jack shafer
how trump won his map - politico
charlie mahtesian gabriel debenedetti blake hounshell nolan d. mccaskill kenneth p. vogel alex isenstadt bryan bender jack shafer