the battle for control of the senate enters its final two weeks in much the same place the campaign started: it<u+2019>s going to be close. what<u+2019>s changed is on the ground. in an election year marked by unpredictable twists and turns, some incumbent republicans who started the cycle with stiff challenges now appear to be gliding to victory. some who seemed to be on cruise control to a win early on are having to step on the gas in the final stretch. just about two weeks from election day, the focus is on six states where senate races remain tight enough for undecided voters to make a difference: new hampshire, pennsylvania, nevada, indiana, missouri and north carolina. republicans hold five of these seats and have 54 of the chamber<u+2019>s 100, meaning control of the senate will depend on their ability to fend off democratic challengers. the other, in nevada, is the seat being vacated by senate democratic leader harry reid. democrat hillary clinton <u+2019>s campaign has in recent days funneled money into some of those contests, and the candidate herself was in pennsylvania on saturday campaigning alongside democrat katie mcginty, who is looking to unseat republican incumbent pat toomey. after laying out her agenda on health care and education, mrs. clinton told a pittsburgh crowd: <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to need help doing that after the election, and that<u+2019>s why i hope you will do everything you can<u+201d> to elect ms. mcginty. mindful of mrs. clinton<u+2019>s lead, some gop groups have begun adjusting their message by suggesting voters need to elect republicans to the senate in order to be a check on a clinton presidency . in missouri, the senate leadership fund, which is allied with majority leader mitch mcconnell (r., ky.), has begun running an ad against the democratic challenger that says <u+201c>one hillary in washington would be bad enough<u+2014>reject jason kander.<u+201d> a new abc news poll released sunday showed mrs. clinton leading mr. trump by 50% to 38%, a sharp widening from the 4-point lead in the network<u+2019>s previous poll taken earlier in the month. the real clear politics average of recent surveys showed mrs. clinton with about a 6-point lead. the changing nature of the senate landscape since campaigns began is partly driven by candidates<u+2019> calculations, made months earlier, on how much to emphasize local issues , and whether to build their own operations or rely on the party<u+2019>s organizational infrastructure. republicans, who already had more seats to defend than democrats, were this year handed the additional calculation of whether to align with or distance themselves from their presidential nominee, whose deficit in national polls risks taking other republicans down with him. <u+201c>if you<u+2019>re a senate candidate and you were relying on the national environment or you were intending on outsourcing your get-out-the-vote operations and your pitch to voters based on the top of the ticket, you are in trouble right now,<u+201d> said republican strategist kevin madden. <u+201c>but if you are one of the members who early on recognized that the environment was going to be tough and you had to build your own get-out-the-vote network, your own identity, and personalize and localize your race, then you are in a stronger position.<u+201d> the trump question is a particular factor in nevada , where republican rep. joe heck withdrew his support for the presidential nominee after a 2005 video showed him bragging about groping and kissing women.<u+00a0>mr. heck ended up enraging conservatives, a problem in a race with little margin for error. president barack obama was visiting the state sunday<u+00a0>to appeal to democrats to turn out at the polls<u+00a0>for their candidate, catherine cortez masto. sen. rob portman of ohio, who last year was behind in the polls, has also said he won<u+2019>t vote for mr. trump, but he has fared better. mr. portman has run his own race , building his own campaign infrastructure and appealing to voters issue by issue. in arizona, sen. john mccain also set up his own campaign infrastructure, and he said he won<u+2019>t vote for mr. trump in light of the 2005 video. both incumbents are leading in the polls. two republican senators who didn<u+2019>t look particularly vulnerable at the start are now in tighter races: richard burr in north carolina and roy blunt in missouri . both their challengers, deborah ross and mr. kander, respectively, have argued the<u+00a0>incumbents have been in washington too long. the topsy-turvy year is also evident in indiana , which looked to favor republicans at the beginning. but when democratic former sen. evan bayh jumped in the race, he took the lead. now, with republican rep. todd young painting mr. bayh as a washington insider, the race has again tightened. capital journal is wsj.com<u+2019>s home for election 2016 news. money is also a factor .<u+00a0>in<u+00a0>each of these states, ad reservations show democrats committed at least $1 million more than republicans as of friday. in pennsylvania, democrats are set to spend $15 million from<u+00a0>oct. 17 through nov. 8, compared with $9 million for republicans, according to a media tracker.<u+00a0>democrats are investing $17 million in new hampshire, versus $11 million for republicans. both states have been competitive from the start. in new hampshire, sen. kelly ayotte has tried to emphasize her service to the state in the face of a tough challenge from democratic gov. maggie hassan. in pennsylvania, sen. toomey has taken the same approach in his race against ms. mcginty, a former state official. last month,<u+00a0>mr. toomey spent an hour with workers<u+00a0>at prisons including u.s. penitentiary canaan, listening to their concerns about overcrowding, staff shortages and how to keep themselves safe. by the end of his meeting, mr. toomey had scribbled down a to-do list, including investigating complaints that prisons weren<u+2019>t following a law that he helped enact this year requiring the federal government to issue pepper spray to guards. <u+201c>you<u+2019>re out there championing some causes that are not necessarily popular,<u+201d> said<u+00a0>donald<u+00a0>williams, whose son, a corrections officer, was murdered by an inmate. <u+201c>we thank you for this.<u+201d> <u+2014>peter nicholas contributed to this article. write to siobhan hughes at siobhan.hughes@wsj.com
fight for senate control hinges on a handful of tight races - wsj
siobhan hughes