beneath a close election contest lie deep rifts among groups gary langer et al., abc news, november 3, 2016 




profound rifts among groups lie beneath the close presidential contest, underscoring the country<u+2019>s fundamental political divisions not only by gender, education, race and ethnicity but also by factors ranging from religious belief to residential area. 




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there<u+2019>s a 22 point gender gap in the contest, nearly double the norm in elections since 1976. and that pales compared with other gaps<u+2013>44 points between college- and non-college-educated whites, 65 points between whites and nonwhites, 66 points between rural and urban residents and 97 points between white evangelicals and likely voters who don<u+2019>t profess a particular religion. 




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trump is doing less well with republicans and gop leaners who wanted someone else to win the nomination; he has 75 percent support in this group, with 15 percent going to clinton, 7 percent to johnson or stein. two factors mitigate the damage: leaning republicans have grown more apt to say they supported trump in the first place (47 percent, up from 40 percent in august), and there<u+2019>s no slippage evident in turnout among leaning republicans who preferred someone else for the nomination. 




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differences among groups abound, with one of the largest between evangelical white protestants<u+2013>a core republican constituency<u+2013>and those who profess no religion. the former back trump by 77 to 19 percent; the latter, clinton by 64 to 25 percent. the groups are identical in size, each making up 17 percent of likely voters. the gap between them is typical. 




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the racial gap, while wide, is narrower than typical. whites support trump by 53 to 39 percent; nonwhites favor clinton, 72 to 21 percent. but that 65 point divide is a bit smaller than the average in exit polls since 1976, 73 points, as well as 26 points smaller than the record racial gap, 91 points, in 1984. that<u+2019>s mostly because of lower support for clinton among nonwhites who are not black or hispanic; 48 percent back her, versus 66 percent for barack obama in 2012. 




in a particularly prominent result in this election, gender and education continue to spell broad differences among whites. college-educated white women, consistently strong for clinton all year, now back her by 59 to 32 percent. non-college-educated white men, steadily one of trump<u+2019>s best groups, support him 64 to 26 percent. 




white men with a college degree continue to divide closely, making them a battleground group. non-college-educated white women<u+2013>the largest of these groups, at 24 percent of likely voters<u+2013>have wavered in their support, generally for trump but by varying margins. lately, they look more settled on trump, now by 61 to 33 percent. 




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beneath a close election contest lie deep rifts among groups
henry wolff