this article is part of the opinion today newsletter. you can sign up here to receive more briefings and a guide to the section daily in your inbox. the frequency of bed-wetting <u+2014> to use david plouffe<u+2019>s preferred term for campaign anxiety <u+2014> has picked up in recent days. <u+201c>so what do you think the odds of a trump victory?<u+201d> asked a text from a relative yesterday. said another text, from a friend: <u+201c>assure me that hrc is going to win...<u+201d> i can<u+2019>t. donald trump <u+2014> by far the most dangerous nominee in our lifetime <u+2014> could win the presidency. that<u+2019>s why i have urged everyone who sees him for what he is to do what they can over the next five days to prevent his victory. but you should also do so optimistically. as jim messina, president obama<u+2019>s 2012 campaign manager, notes in an op-ed this morning, the tightening national polls don<u+2019>t deserve as much attention as they get. <u+201c>the best campaigns don<u+2019>t bother with national polls,<u+201d> he writes. far more relevant are state polls (particularly state polls that use the most sophisticated methodologies, taking advantage of voter files, for example). and state polls continue to look strong for hillary clinton. clinton leads by at least six percentage points in a group of states that would give her 263 electoral votes, seven shy of victory. she leads by fewer than six points in another four states that combine for 59 electoral votes. to win, trump would need a sweep of every state he leads (including ohio and iowa), as well as some where clinton leads, like florida, north carolina and either colorado or new hampshire. in a few of these states, like colorado, the early vote is encouraging for clinton. as i<u+2019>ve mentioned before, through all of the campaign<u+2019>s ups and downs, clinton has never trailed, whether you look at state polling or national polling averages. most of the poll fluctuations stem from people<u+2019>s waxing and waning enthusiasm about responding to polls, based on the news surrounding their preferred candidate. so breathe deeply. and do what you can do between now and tuesday. you can join me on twitter (@dleonhardt) and facebook . i am also writing a daily email newsletter until the election and invite you to subscribe . follow the new york times opinion section on facebook and twitter (@nytopinion).
don<u+2019>t bother with national polls
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