2016 a timeline of what to expect and where, from dawn until late in the evening. by steven shepard and charlie mahtesian 11/08/16 05:17 am est more than 46 million early votes have already been cast. now, on election day, somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 to 100 million more votes will follow, depending on the level of turnout. in 2008, turnout spiked to 62.3 percent of eligible citizens. four years later, voter turnout fell to an estimated 57.5 percent. here's a timeline of what to expect throughout the day, from dawn until late in the evening: story continued below (both candidates<u+2019> election-night events are in the eastern time zone, as are all times listed here.) 6 a.m. <u+2014> the first polls open. voters are voting! at least in connecticut, new jersey, new york, virginia and parts of indiana, kentucky, maine and new hampshire. by then, voters in three new hampshire towns will have already gathered at midnight to cast their ballots, a practice dramatized in an episode of the television program <u+201c> the west wing .<u+201d> for the record, hillary clinton won dixville notch, the tiny new hampshire hamlet that traditionally votes just after midnight with four votes to donald trump's two. 8 a.m. <u+2013> the first numbers. just two hours after the first polls open, slate and votecastr will be releasing computer model projections based on voter turnout and pre-election polls. 2016 by shane goldmacher it<u+2019>s a controversial project , with some observers worried early and potentially precarious projections could affect the actual vote. it<u+2019>s unclear how predictive and stable the data will be throughout the day, or how it might influence media coverage. regardless of its volatility, political junkies will be mining the data as an early source of information <u+2014> and a test of whether the project is prudent or ill-conceived. noon <u+2013> everyone is voting. by midday on the east coast, polls have opened in alaska and hawaii <u+2014> meaning voters can cast their ballots in every state in the nation. most of the information about voter turnout at this stage is anecdotal <u+2014> a problem slate and votecastr are seeking to fix. we<u+2019>re also getting reports throughout the afternoon of alleged irregularities, long lines and other problems. 5 p.m. <u+2013> the quarantine ends. somewhere, in an undisclosed location on the island of manhattan, there<u+2019>s a room of pollsters, political experts and data nerds being reunited with their cell phones and laptops. that<u+2019>s because representatives of the six news organizations that make up the national election pool are spending much of the afternoon poring over preliminary exit poll data, locked in a quarantine room, prohibited from sharing that data with their respective newsrooms <u+2014> or anyone else, for that matter <u+2014> until 5 p.m. minutes after 5 p.m., you<u+2019>ll see some early exit poll nuggets shared on the three cable-news networks, on the networks<u+2019> websites and on social media. but those nuggets won<u+2019>t tell you who is winning or losing. the six members of the pool have pledged not to release any data that characterizes the outcome of the race. instead, they will provide clues to the composition of the electorate, or how voters felt about the candidates. now, some websites outside the pool may post what they claim are topline results exit polls before the polls have closed <u+2014> slate and drudge report have done this in years past. but don't take these numbers too seriously. according to the early exit poll results in 2004, democrat john kerry was on his way toward denying a second term to president george w. bush. even if they are genuine, these are the earliest estimates <u+2014> estimates that are sometimes off significantly from the actual vote totals. that<u+2019>s by design: once the votes are tabulated, the exit polls are weighted back to the election result, whether in target precincts or statewide. 6 p.m.: here come the votes. now the real fun begins. polls close at 6 p.m. in portions of indiana and kentucky in the eastern time zone <u+2014> which includes most of indiana and half of kentucky. projections won<u+2019>t be made in either state until all the polls close an hour later, but the first votes will be tabulated beginning at 6 p.m. <u+2014> including the closely watched senate and gubernatorial races in indiana. 2016 by eli stokols 7 p.m.: the first calls. polls close statewide in georgia , indiana , kentucky , south carolina , vermont and virginia . we may get calls in the presidential race in indiana, kentucky, south carolina and vermont. if the networks can<u+2019>t call south carolina right at 7 p.m., it could be bad news for trump<u+2019>s chances in two neighboring states: georgia and north carolina. likewise, if vermont isn't the first state called for hillary clinton, something is amiss. how do the networks characterize virginia right at 7 p.m.? if clinton is headed to a mid-to-high-single-digit win there, as the polls suggest, the networks may say, while the commonwealth is too early to call, it is leaning toward the democrat. either way, don't be fooled by the early results trickling in from virginia. that's southwest virginia, and it's likely to be heavily in favor of donald trump. the real numbers that matter won't come in until a little after 8 p.m., when northern virginia begins to report its results. the polls also close in most of florida, the biggest electoral prize east of the mississippi river. voters in parts of the florida panhandle in the central time zone get to keep voting, but we<u+2019>ll be watching the votes roll in. 7:30 p.m.: get ready for two big swing states. polls close in north carolina and ohio on the half-hour. no calls will be made in the presidential race in both states and the senate and gubernatorial races are also likely to be too close to call. but we could get an immediate call in the ohio senate race: gop sen. rob portman has a huge lead in the polls over democrat ted strickland. those aren't the only states where polls close at 7:30 <u+2014> there's also west virginia, which isn't likely to be kind to clinton. in the only state wholly contained within the appalachian mountains, trump is on a trajectory to win all 55 counties. 8 p.m.: the big reveal. polls close in 17 states at 8 p.m. some of them are safe states where we can expect immediate calls: alabama , connecticut , delaware , illinois , maryland , massachusetts , mississippi , new jersey , oklahoma , rhode island , tennessee and the district of columbia . other states that close at 8 p.m. are expected to be closer: florida , maine , missouri , new hampshire and pennsylvania . trump is favored to carry missouri, and it could be called immediately. that would be welcome news for gop sen. roy blunt, who is locked in a close race with democrat jason kander. the 8-p.m. mark could bring the first senate seat to switch parties: illinois gop sen. mark kirk is expected to lose to democratic rep. tammy duckworth. 8:30 p.m.: little rock in a hard place. bill clinton carried his home state twice, but when the polls close in arkansas at 8:30, expect it to be called for trump <u+2014> the most recent polls in the state where she once served as first lady show hillary clinton losing by blowout margins. since 1996, democratic performance in arkansas has declined every cycle: 45.9 percent in 2000, 44.5 percent in 2004, 38.9 percent in 2008 and 36.9 percent in 2012. 9 p.m.: new battlegrounds. polls close in a number of new battleground states: arizona , colorado , michigan , minnesota , new mexico and wisconsin . most of the polls in michigan closed at 8 p.m., but there<u+2019>s a small sliver of the state in the central time zone. 2016 by darren samuelsohn and josh gerstein it<u+2019>s the same thing in texas : most of the state closes at 8 p.m., but the small part of west texas in the mountain time zone closes at 9. will the networks be able to make an immediate call, or has clinton made enough inroads in the second most-populous state <u+2014> which hasn<u+2019>t gone democratic since 1976 <u+2014> to extend the count past 9? perhaps most irksome to trump, the networks will almost certainly call new york and its 29 electoral votes for clinton <u+2014> making her the fourth straight democrat to win his or her home state. (sorry, al gore.) trump<u+2019>s consolation prize: polls also close in kansas , louisiana , nebraska , north dakota , south dakota and wyoming <u+2014> all likely trump states. there's one outstanding question among this group: who wins nebraska's 2nd congressional district? remember, in nebraska, the statewide winner gets two electoral votes, and the winner of each of the state's three congressional districts is awarded one. in 2008, obama managed to steal the omaha-based seat right out from under gop noses. and while polls close in arizona at 9 p.m., don<u+2019>t expect to see any vote totals for an hour: state law says officials have to wait an hour to report results, or when all the votes are counted, whichever comes first. gop sen. john mccain could be an immediate winner thanks to exit-poll data, however. 10 p.m.: evan mcmullin<u+2019>s best chance. polls close at 10 p.m. in iowa , montana , nevada and utah . iowa and nevada are the swing states that will attract the most attention, but utah will also be in the spotlight because of trump's unpopularity in this conservative state. will independent candidate evan mcmullin run strong enough in utah to prevent the networks from calling the race immediately? could trump's lead swell to a safe margin in iowa that it can be called promptly at 10 p.m.? 11 p.m.: west coast clincher? three weeks ago, when clinton held a wide lead over trump, 11 p.m. seemed like the moment she would clinch the presidency. by brent griffiths polls close in four democratic-leaning states worth a total of 78 electoral votes: california , hawaii , oregon and washington . (trump will almost certainly add idaho <u+2019>s 4 electoral votes at 11 p.m.) but with the race closer, it<u+2019>s possible those 78 electoral votes will boost clinton<u+2019>s total, but there will be battleground states that are uncalled at that hour <u+2014> and the outcome of the race could hang on them. 1 a.m.: nome sweet nome. alaska is the last state to close, at 1 a.m. it<u+2019>s likely the presidential race will be decided before then. the battle for the senate is a moving target <u+2014> the party that wins the presidential race only needs 50 seats to control the chamber after inauguration day <u+2014> but that could be wrapped up, too. and if republicans maintain most of their house majority, they could cross the 218-seat threshold by 1 a.m., as well. of course, in this historic campaign, it<u+2019>s also possible one <u+2014> or all three <u+2014> of these races remains up-for-grabs into the wee small hours of the morning. by bill scher by joshua zeitz by thomas wright by jack shafer
how to watch election day like a pro - politico
steven shepard charlie mahtesian shane goldmacher eli stokols darren samuelsohn josh gerstein brent griffiths jack shafer