world trade flows staged a partial rebound in the three months through september, even as concerns mounted over a possible increase in protectionism driven by voter resentment against job losses and weak earnings growth that many blame on three decades of accelerated globalization. during his campaign, u.s. president-elect donald trump pledged to introduce higher tariffs on imports from china and mexico, and reassess other trade relationships that he said placed u.s. workers at a disadvantage. the cpb netherlands bureau for economic policy analysis on friday said the volume of world exports and imports in september was 0.4% lower than in august. but for the third quarter as a whole, trade flows were up 0.5% from the three months through june, having fallen by 0.7% during that period. the third-quarter increase means trade flows may rise over the year as a whole, but any increase is likely to be modest, maintaining the weak pace of expansion seen since 2011. but economic policy makers world-wide worry that a more dramatic swing toward protectionism could lead to even slower growth in coming years. european central bank vice president v<u+00ed>tor const<u+00e2>ncio said on thursday that if u.s. president-elect donald trump pressed ahead with higher tariffs against some trading partners, retaliation would likely follow. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s very risky in a situation where world trade is already very weak,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>world trade and growth will suffer. the world trade organization has cut its forecast for world trade growth in 2016, saying it will be the slowest expansion since the global financial crisis, and warning that could weaken longer-term economic growth. the geneva-based institution said government measures that restrict trade continue to rise around the world, and urged its members to remove barriers to imports. businesses that facilitate trade are preparing for difficult times. <u+201c>matters for trade are made far worse by political developments,<u+201d> said john lori<u+00e9> , chief economist at atradius, a firm that provides trade credit insurance. <u+201c>these are flatly trade-unfriendly, as signaled not only by the brexit vote in the u.k., but also by the stalling of the regional trade liberalization efforts. antitrade rhetoric by u.s. president-elect donald trump during the election campaign make matters even worse. the climate has changed; we will see that in future trade data.<u+201d> in the face of mounting hostility toward globalization in developed economies, free-trade advocates have acknowledged that the liberalization of trade and investment since the 1980s has been mishandled. <u+201c>we knew, from the outset, very well that trade created winners and losers,<u+201d> said joakim reiter , deputy secretary-general of the united nations conference on trade and development. <u+201c>but<u+2014>if we are honest<u+2014>we focused more on telling the story of the winners and neglected the story of the losers. and this omission has come to haunt us.<u+201d> write to paul hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
global trade rebound threatened by  protectionism after trump victory - wsj
paul hannon