raleigh, n.c.<u+2014>republicans are likely to maintain their strength in state governors<u+2019> mansions<u+00a0>on tuesday, with democrats<u+2019> best hope being to hold their ground or perhaps pick up a seat or two in states such as north carolina and indiana. republicans hold 31 governorships to democrats<u+2019> 18, while alaska has an independent as governor. of the 12 races this year, seven are competitive, although election forecaster larry sabato of the university of virginia said<u+00a0>monday<u+00a0>that he expects the partisan split to remain 31-18. these days, many gubernatorial candidates find themselves closely aligned with the national ticket, whether they like it or not.<u+00a0>it used to be that voters might pick a candidate of one party because of management skills and state-level issues like education, and a candidate of the other party for president because of national issues like defense or medicare, said john weingart, director of the center on the american governor at rutgers university. <u+201c>as the country has become more polarized, that<u+2019>s become less common,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s less ticket splitting.<u+201d> republicans owe their strength in the governors<u+2019> mansions in part because most of the governors<u+2019> races are held in nonpresidential years, and republicans nationally did particularly well in 2010 and 2014, mr. weingart said. one of the most expensive races in terms of advertising has been in north carolina, where republican gov. pat mccrory faces democrat roy cooper. the race is bitterly partisan in this battleground state, where democratic nominee hillary clinton and republican nominee donald trump have made repeated visits, including in the campaign<u+2019>s waning hours<u+00a0>on monday. in recent weeks, mr. mccrory aligned himself decisively with mr. trump.<u+00a0>on saturday, mr. mccrory told a cheering crowd in wilmington, n.c., that mr. trump represented <u+201c>the best of america .<u+201d> it was a much more full-throated endorsement than last summer, when mr. mccrory said simply that he supported the republican nominee. after this article was published, the mccrory campaign contacted the wall street journal to say that the governor<u+2019>s <u+201c>best of america<u+201d> comment didn<u+2019>t refer to mr. trump but rather to the rally and its attendees. but the north carolina race is also a referendum on mr. mccrory<u+2019>s leadership during the four years since republicans took control of state government, and particularly on the law known as house bill 2, which restricts transgender people<u+2019>s use of public bathrooms. <u+201c>house bill 2 is symbolic of the larger dynamic,<u+201d> said ferrel guillory of the university of north carolina at chapel hill. <u+201c>the legislature, along with pat mccrory, have redirected state policy across broad swaths of government issues.<u+201d> mr. mccrory, a longtime mayor of charlotte, won handily in 2012, netting significantly more votes than republican nominee mitt romney in the state<u+2019>s biggest metropolitan areas of charlotte and raleigh. mr. mccrory has said that many of his former backers dropped their support because he continued to champion hb2 as a common-sense measure, even as businesses have withdrawn investments in protest. in indiana, lt. gov. eric holcomb is a social conservative whose views mirror gov. mike pence, the man mr. holcomb replaced on the ballot. house speaker john gregg, the democratic challenger, is running neck-and-neck in the polls and billing himself as a moderate who can work effectively with republicans. but it isn<u+2019>t clear whether mr. gregg<u+2019>s appeal to <u+201c>hoosier values<u+201d> of common sense and moderation will be enough to counteract mr. trump<u+2019>s popularity in indiana, where he leads by more than 10 points in the polls, according to real clear politics. <u+201c>this is an extremely complex election year because of the trump phenomenon,<u+201d> said marjorie hershey of indiana university. to be sure, some gubernatorial nominees have backed away from their party<u+2019>s nominee, most notably in vermont. republican nominee phil scott has a significant lead in the polls in part because he has renounced mr. trump, said rutgers<u+2019> mr. weingart. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s in some ways an old-fashioned governor<u+2019>s race in that it<u+2019>s these two individuals and not so much the national party,<u+201d> he said. write to valerie bauerlein at valerie.bauerlein@wsj.com
gop confident in governors<u+2019> races - wsj
valerie bauerlein