one way or another, donald trump <u+2019>s election could change brexit. for those already anxious about britain<u+2019>s departure from the european union , the election sharply increases uncertainty as the u.k. casts itself adrift from the bloc. others expect mr. trump will prioritize relations with the u.k. and ease the pathway out. the big economic unknown is over trade. the power of the presidency to set trade policy is extensive and mr. trump has said america<u+2019>s current trade arrangements swell its trade deficit and hurt american jobs and wages. his election was the final nail in the coffin of the trans-pacific partnership , a trade deal with asia. he has said he would renegotiate or withdraw from the north american free-trade agreement with mexico and canada. and a trade-and-investment deal being negotiated with the eu is now in the freezer , says eu trade commissioner cecilia malmstr<u+00f6>m. mr. trump has also threatened actions, including possible big tariff increases, to combat what he calls unfair trade from china. nevertheless, some pro-brexit campaigners are excited by his election and say the u.k. could be a beneficiary. they say that mr. trump likes britain<u+2014>he owns golf courses in scotland<u+2014>and that he was a strong proponent of brexit. robert zoellick, a u.s. trade representative under president george w. bush, said before the election that he had suggested a free-trade agreement with britain as it left the eu. it <u+201c>got very good reactions<u+2026>from members of congress because they generally like britain,<u+201d> he said. british economist andrew lilico says mr. trump will want brexit to succeed and will support a trade deal with britain. american voters would back a trade deal with britain and that would make it easy to get it through congress, he argues in an article for the website reaction. mr. trump favors trade deals with high-wage economies such as the u.k. over low-income economies like mexico, he says. the u.k.<u+2019>s negotiating window is small, mr. lilico says: there are only two years before u.s. midterm elections, during which time the u.k. is expected to have its hands tied since, while still a member of the eu, it is widely argued that the u.k. can<u+2019>t negotiate new trade deals in earnest. mr. lilico doesn<u+2019>t accept that is a genuine restriction. <u+201c>it is simply unacceptable, in geopolitical terms, for the u.k. to accept any other country telling us what trade deals we may or may not negotiate, for periods when we are not in a customs union,<u+201d> he wrote in an email. view interactive if the u.k. can<u+2019>t get the eu<u+2019>s go-ahead to do this, he says it should abandon the article 50 negotiating process<u+2014>under which it gives two years<u+2019> notice to allow divorce negotiations to take place<u+2014>and just quit the bloc. more likely, he says, common sense would prevail and the u.k. would be allowed to negotiate its eu divorce in parallel with other future trade deals . mr. lilico says he isn<u+2019>t ranking one trade deal as more important than another. most economists contend a trade pact with the eu is a bigger priority because the bloc is the u.k.<u+2019>s most important trading partner. in september, 51% of british exports went to the eu<u+2014>in recent years, it has averaged about 45%<u+2014>and 15% to the u.s., britain<u+2019>s largest national market. britain also runs a trade surplus with the u.s.<u+2014>a possible risk for london given that mr. trump has suggested america<u+2019>s trade deficit is bad for the economy<u+2014>and a big deficit with the eu, especially with germany. germany<u+2019>s wish to preserve its surplus could help ensure berlin pushes a favorable trade deal with britain. but even if economic success is positively correlated with a fat trade surplus<u+2014>and most economists say it isn<u+2019>t<u+2014> germany<u+2019>s current-account surplus is forecast to reach a record 9% of gross domestic product this year. britain<u+2019>s contribution to it is less than 1% of gdp, so even on this measure its leverage isn<u+2019>t overwhelming. that suggests mr. trump<u+2019>s election shouldn<u+2019>t encourage the government to fixate on a u.s. trade deal at the cost of keeping the eu close. nicholas crafts, professor of economics and economic history at the university of warwick, also questions whether any agreement signed by mr. trump would be advantageous or even acceptable to the u.k. other economists say such an accord is unlikely to be as extensive as the u.s.-eu deal now on ice. but the biggest worry is that mr. trump<u+2019>s trade-retaliation plans sets off a trade war and a new era of global protectionism, making new agreements difficult or impossible. mr. crafts says there is an outside chance that mr. trump<u+2019>s policies could destroy the world trade organization. that, he says, <u+201c>would seem to complicate<u+00a0>brexit<u+00a0>considerably.<u+201d>
trump election is new wild card for brexit  - wsj
stephen fidler