writing at the hill, analyst mark plotkin figures he knows why ted cruz's poll numbers have tanked in indiana: rings.









remember when the republican presidential candidate stumbled over the word "rim" as he was trying to re-create a scene from the movie "hoosiers" (for some reason)? well, that slip-up will "doom him" in basketball-loving indiana, just as so many have been doomed by so many other slips of the tongue before. indianans love basketball very much, apparently, and they will be very mad if you say "ring" to them. ("traditionally, we call that a 'hoop' here in indiana," the indianapolis star's allison carter noted dryly.)









why, look at the polls! the cruz mistake happened april 26; shortly thereafter, his poll numbers started to sink.









hard to argue with that. except that something else happened april 26: donald trump beat the tar out of cruz and ted kasich in five states.









this republican race has been a teacup ride for the ages, whipping back and forth between "trump is doomed" and "trump is inevitable," usually based on whatever good or bad luck trump has had in the most recent voting. his<u+00a0>past six efforts have been exceptional, his best of the campaign, so our teacups are spinning toward "inevitable" once again, and faster than ever.









and that makes some sense: there aren't many contests left, and trump's magic number <u+2014> how many of the remaining delegates he needs <u+2014> continues to sink.









indiana is one of the two biggest states left on the calendar, and it gives out its delegates in a "winner-take-most" fashion <u+2014> win the state and the congressional districts, and you get all the delegates.









yes, trump has won six in a row, and by very wide margins. but just as bernie sanders won seven<u+00a0>of eight before the race shifted back to hillary clinton-friendly territory, indiana ain't the northeast. (in the northeast, no one has any idea what to call a basketball loop.) the midwest is<u+00a0>different terrain, where trump's margins of victory have been more modest <u+2014> when he has won.









let's say, for example, that trump doesn't win indiana's primary tuesday. this is unlikely. fivethirtyeight's forecast shows that trump has an 83 percent chance of winning. there are reports that trump is finally figuring out how to run a ground game <u+2014><u+00a0>that is, how to get his supporters to the polls. but cruz has consistently been stronger and smarter, which is one reason he pulled off a surprise win in iowa. that was a caucus and not a primary, one of several reasons he probably will still lose in indiana. but if he doesn't? back go the teacups.









even if cruz loses and trump wins <u+2014> as is likely <u+2014> the race isn't over. winning indiana's delegates makes trump's job much easier, particularly given his big lead in new jersey <u+2014> the third biggest state left and one that gives all of its delegates to the winner <u+2014> and in california. both of those states will vote june 7, and, between the two of them, will offer trump enough delegates to clinch the nomination.









but let's go back to indiana. one of the reasons polls appear to have shifted against cruz in the state is that the air is coming out of his campaign. gallup's survey data indicates that cruz's favorability rating has tanked among republicans since trump's big victory in new york. the implication? people who were supporting cruz out of a desire to stop trump have lost some of that enthusiasm. this also could explain the dip in indiana.









it also suggests that opinions are relatively fickle, driven by a sense of viability. even if cruz doesn't win tonight, a better-than-expected performance, a close race, could prompt some rethinking. plus, there are still several states between now and june 7 where cruz could do well: nebraska, south dakota, montana. if voters are responding to the variations of<u+00a0>the race, as polls suggest, we could have another variation in the cards, even if trump wins in indiana. maybe. possibly. (there are a bunch of states where trump will do well, too.)









i understand why trump keeps insisting that an indiana win would cap off his nomination. i understand <u+2014> and agree with <u+2014> arguments suggesting that it makes his nomination all but certain. but i'd note that our impulses to declare finality in the wake of particular results often have proven to be short-lived. trump wouldn't actually clinch until the night of june 7 <u+2014> about<u+00a0>a month from now. one month ago, cruz was about to dominate in wisconsin and give the wan "stop trump" effort its only real win. things change.









and besides. what if trump mispronounces "avocado"? california could definitely be up for grabs.
take a deep breath. the republican contest still has another month to go.
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