latino voters have the potential to swing the presidential election and several senate races in november, but the group<u+2019>s turnout remains a big question. a new pew research center poll found that fewer latino registered voters are <u+201c>absolutely certain<u+201d> to vote this year, 69%, compared with 77% in 2012. in contrast, 86% of all registered voters say they are absolutely certain to cast a ballot in 2016. several factors could contribute to the new numbers. <u+201c>this could potentially reflect less outreach from the campaigns than four years ago, or the growing presence of millennials among hispanic voters,<u+201d> said mark hugo lopez, pew<u+2019>s director of hispanic research. millennials in general have <u+201c>traditionally had low voter-turnout rates,<u+201d> he said. the number of hispanic eligible voters is up about four million since 2012 to a record 27.3 million, according to pew. however, latino turnout has long trailed that of other groups. it was 48% in the 2012 election compared with about 64% for whites and 66% for blacks.<u+00a0>hispanic turnout was 27% in the 2014 midterms. latino organizations have been mobilizing to register voters, and voter registration is rising in some battleground states, such as nevada. but most hispanics live in states that aren't up for grabs in the presidential election, such as california and texas, and haven't received as much campaign attention, analysts say. among hispanics, democrat hillary clinton holds a wide lead over gop candidate donald trump, who has disparaged undocumented immigrants and mexicans on the campaign trail. fifty-eight % said they would vote for mrs. clinton; 19% said they would support mr. trump, according to pew. another 10% favor libertarian gary johnson ; 6% back jill stein, the green party nominee. the results were based on a nationally representative sample of 1,507 latinos contacted by cellular and landline telephones between aug. 23 and sept. 21. one major challenge to engaging hispanics is their age: they are the second-largest population group in the u.s. but, at ages 18-35, the youngest of all. nearly six in 10 hispanics are millennials or younger. among hispanic eligible voters, 44% are millennials. just 37.8% of hispanic millennials voted in 2012, compared with 47.5% of white millennials and 55% of black millennials. in the pew survey, 62% of millennial latinos said they were absolutely certain to vote this election compared with 74% four years ago, the biggest decline among hispanics. <u+201c>notably, clinton<u+2019>s support is lagging among hispanic millennials,<u+201d> the pew report said. among hispanic millennials, 48% support mrs. clinton, while 15% back trump. about as many favor mr. johnson and ms. stein, 13% each. <u+201c>at this moment, i feel like i don<u+2019>t want to vote,<u+201d> said jaclyn duffy-huerta, a 19-year-old student at the university of nevada, las vegas, where the next presidential debate will take place. an independent who backed mr. sanders and is registered to vote, ms. duffy-huerta said mr. trump is <u+201c>disrespectful<u+201d> toward women and hispanics. <u+201c>hillary doesn<u+2019>t really excite me, either,<u+201d> she said, citing concerns about <u+201c>the way she withholds information.<u+201d> in particular, mrs. clinton needs to do more to attract the young hispanics who backed vermont sen. bernie sanders, a sensation among all young democratic voters during the primaries, analysts said. <u+201c>one issue is, what happens to those latino millennials who were so passionate about bernie (sanders),<u+201d> said victoria defrancesco<u+00a0>soto, latino studies professor at university of texas, austin. <u+201c>you can<u+2019>t take them for granted. it<u+2019>s going to be an uphill battle getting latino youth to turn out.<u+201d> a poll released oct. 3 by the naleo educational fund and spanish-langu age telemundo network found that 71% of latinos are <u+201c>almost certain<u+201d> to vote in election 2016 and that 17% will <u+201c>probably<u+201d> vote. fifty-two % of those polled said they were more enthusiastic about voting in 2016 than in 2012. <u+201c>we feel that latinos are strongly interested in making their voices heard in this election, <u+201c>said rosalind gold, senior director of policy, research and advocacy at the nonpartisan organization that promotes latino civic engagement. however, ms. gold cautioned that current outreach efforts weren't enough to turn that interest into votes on<u+00a0>nov. 8. <u+201c>if we want that enthusiasm to carry through to casting ballots, we need to make sure there are robust efforts to engage, reach and mobilize latino voters,<u+201d> she said. write to miriam jordan at miriam.jordan@wsj.com
latino voters grow in numbers, but fewer certain they will turn out     - wsj
miriam jordan