donald j. trump had already roiled the religious right, casting the republican party<u+2019>s most reliable voting bloc into an abyss of despair, recriminations and uncertainty about the future. then the 2005 video surfaced of him boasting about his sexual predations and women began coming forward to accuse him of sexual assault. <u+201c>the world is getting a glimpse into the dark and rotting core of evangelicalism,<u+201d> an evangelical with deep roots in the movement told me recently. the divide <u+2014> or, more aptly, the crater <u+2014> between pro-trump and anti-trump evangelicals is a window into the future of the republican party. white evangelical voters are the heart of the party<u+2019>s base, the loyal foot soldiers who turn out for the party<u+2019>s presidential nominee every time. a poll by the public religion research institute taken in part after the video<u+2019>s release shows 65 percent of white evangelicals intending to vote for mr. trump. that is high enough to be significant, but is relatively low for evangelical voters and the republican nominee. (for comparison, mitt romney, who was viewed with suspicion by many evangelicals because he is mormon, won the votes of 79 percent of white evangelicals.) most telling, though, is the significant gender gap: while 72 percent of white evangelical men said they intend to vote for mr. trump, only 58 percent of white evangelical women did. a defection by even 15 percent or 20 percent of republican evangelicals from lock-step support for the party could be a major contributing factor to a collapse of its national electoral viability. but that is just one measure of the splintering of this devoted voting bloc. the movement is also being subjected to a very public display of division between the pro- and anti-trump camps and open talk among evangelicals about pro-trump leaders<u+2019> plummeting credibility. the monday after america heard mr. trump<u+2019>s vulgar boasting, ralph reed, the political strategist thought to have a genius for turning out evangelical voters, delivered a full-throated defense of why christians should vote for the nominee to students at liberty university. that same day, mark demoss, a highly regarded christian public relations professional who, in the 1980s, was the chief of staff to liberty<u+2019>s founder, jerry falwell sr., told me, <u+201c>the evangelical movement has, in my view, forfeited any future moral authority in american public life.<u+201d> mr. demoss, himself a liberty alumnus, was asked to resign from the university board<u+2019>s executive committee in february after he was publicly critical of the endorsement of mr. trump by liberty<u+2019>s president, jerry falwell jr. that was just the beginning of what has become an evangelical schism over mr. trump. this month, wayne grudem, a theologian highly respected by evangelicals, rescinded his endorsement. andy crouch, executive editor of christianity today, wrote , <u+201c>enthusiasm for a candidate like trump gives our neighbors ample reason to doubt that we believe jesus is lord.<u+201d> james macdonald, a pastor who had agreed to serve on mr. trump<u+2019>s evangelical executive advisory council, called mr. trump <u+201c>lecherous and worthless<u+201d> and the council <u+201c>a joke.<u+201d> mr. falwell, though, has stood by mr. trump, telling wabc radio that <u+201c>we<u+2019>re all sinners<u+201d> and accusing <u+201c>republican establishment members<u+201d> of a conspiracy to release the tape so they could <u+201c>slither out<u+201d> of their endorsements. yet the reaction of a group of liberty students provided another data point in the unfolding evangelical power collapse. the students released a letter declaring that mr. trump <u+201c>is absolutely opposed to what we believe, and does not have our support.<u+201d> as mr. trump takes the stage for the final debate on wednesday night, evangelical women may well be thinking less about the male leadership<u+2019>s defense of mr. trump and more about the words of the popular evangelical speaker and writer beth moore, who tweeted this month: <u+201c>i<u+2019>m one among many women sexually abused, misused, stared down, heckled, talked naughty to. like we liked it. we didn<u+2019>t. we<u+2019>re tired of it.<u+201d> although its leaders may not admit it, the political apparatus of the religious right that has persisted in supporting mr. trump<u+2019>s candidacy is driven by a quest to retain a seat at a potential republican white house table. but capitulating to mr. trump has stripped those leaders of their leverage. in previous elections, they vetted the candidates, dangling the indispensable evangelical vote in exchange for promises about supreme court justices and dedication to <u+201c>christian values.<u+201d> mr. trump reversed that dynamic. he has offered the most perfunctory promises of supreme court nominations and <u+201c>pro-life<u+201d> principles, but rarely talks about their major issues, particularly religious freedom. his most trumpian promise is his pledge to repeal the johnson amendment, a rarely enforced law that bars houses of worship and other nonprofit groups from using tax-exempt resources to endorse political candidates. for evangelical leaders who are backing mr. trump, even a good-news scenario <u+2014> the surveys are wrong and he wins <u+2014> carries risk. mr. trump could fail to follow through on his promises to the religious right, the leaders who endorsed him will suffer diminished standing and their organizations could face difficulties in fund-raising. if he loses, though, there could be a showdown in which the pro-trump camp blames the anti-trumpers for the loss, and the anti-trump camp is still seething that it was asked to compromise principles for party loyalty. <u+201c>it will take a long time,<u+201d> jerushah armfield, an evangelical writer and the granddaughter of the iconic evangelist billy graham, told me, <u+201c>for evangelicals to redeem their moral credibility <u+2014> if they even can.<u+201d> there remains one thing that could still unite conservative evangelicals: a hillary clinton presidency. it<u+2019>s still entirely foreseeable that the religious right, along with other pro-trump partisans, would fight mrs. clinton<u+2019>s legislative agenda, her supreme court nominees and even the legitimacy of her election. a recent poll showed that 68 percent of white evangelicals found mr. trump<u+2019>s call to jail mrs. clinton <u+201c>appropriate.<u+201d> antipathy for mrs. clinton runs deep: in 1994, mr. falwell sr. helped foment the bill clinton impeachment fight, marketing a film that accused mr. clinton of sexual misdeeds and even murder. back then, mr. falwell sold the videotapes for $43 each. today, conspiracy theories proliferate freely on the internet. by hitching their wagon to mr. trump, religious-right leaders are also tying their fortunes to the alt-right, the predominant movement supportive of, and bolstered by, the trump campaign . as a largely secular movement, though, the alt-right not only is uninterested in the religious right<u+2019>s concerns, it also threatens to eclipse the religious right within the republican party. and it<u+2019>s a movement simmering with racism, xenophobia and anti-semitism. the religious right has told us for decades that the moral downfall of america is imminent, and only god can save us. it may finally be proven right. sarah posner is the author of <u+201c>god<u+2019>s profits: faith, fraud and the republican crusade for values voters.<u+201d> follow the new york times opinion section on facebook and twitter (@nytopinion), and sign up for the opinion today newsletter .
the religious right<u+2019>s trump schism
sarah posner