there<u+2019>s nothing quite like playing in front of the hometown crowd to get your mojo back. and that<u+2019>s exactly what donald trump did in the new york primary tuesday, winning 61 of 62 counties and all but one congressional district en route to scooping up 90 delegates.









in the end, trump<u+2019>s resounding victory may have been as vital to the tone of the race coverage as it was to his actual path to the republican nomination. after a month of taking on water thanks to staff shake-ups, organizing failures and a big loss in wisconsin, the donald trounced his rivals in the media capital of the world.









but it<u+2019>s probably not enough as he tries to secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination before reaching the gop convention in cleveland. the most likely scenario will have trump getting about 1,185 delegates. here<u+2019>s why.









new york marks a crucial geographic segue in the race, as the calendar turns away from the ted cruz-friendly interior and into trump<u+2019>s mid-atlantic wheelhouse. with 156 bound delegates at stake next tuesday, the test for cruz and john kasich will be how many they can pick off.









you can start by penciling in 39 delegates for trump as the likely statewide winner in delaware, pennsylvania and maryland. exceeding the 50 percent mark in connecticut would mean another 13 delegates who would otherwise be split among the field.









and trump can expect to win about half of rhode island<u+2019>s 19 proportionally allotted delegates. the rest will be awarded to the respective winners of each congressional district.









the best delegate-poaching opportunity for kasich comes in the affluent maryland suburbs of washington, dc, where polls show trump dead last behind cruz. winning three or four districts between the beltway and the connecticut gold coast would be a big success. the best news for trump opponents is that the single biggest trove of delegates will be the 54 unbound pennsylvanians elected independently of candidate affiliation or obligation. while many have pledged to support the winner of the state or their district, all would be in play in cleveland, a wrinkle that complicates trump<u+2019>s path.









trump would be wise to maximize his april opportunities. other than new jersey on june 7, there are no more gimmes, and few opportunities to reap a disproportionate share of delegates even from those states trump might win. the mountain west has been inhospitable terrain. the pacific northwest states split their delegates proportionally. and even west virginia, in the heart of trump<u+2019>s appalachian sweet spot, has a delegate system so complicated that he may come away shortchanged.









the bellwether to watch will be indiana. the criminally under-polled state holds promise both for trump (open primary, blue-collar sensibilities) and his opponents (affluent indianapolis suburbs for kasich, grassroots conservatives and evangelicals for cruz), and awards 30 at-large delegates to the statewide winner. if cruz can reprise the midwestern magic that carried him in wisconsin, he can stop the trump offensive in its tracks. short of that, he and kasich must peel away as many congressional districts as possible to prevent trump from heading into june needing only a glorified chip shot to clinch.









in the end, the race will come down to california and its massive cache of 172 delegates in what will amount to 53 unpredictable mini-primaries across disparate terrain. ninety delegates will be awarded in districts where president obama received 60 percent or more of the vote. two-thirds of those will be decided in seats where mitt romney won 30 percent or less, including eight bona fide <u+201c>rotten boroughs<u+201d> where he couldn<u+2019>t even crack 20 percent.









trump can hardly expect a new york-style romp here, meaning he needs at least 1,100 delegates coming in.









cruz<u+2019>s argument at an open convention will be stronger if he can claim more than 800 delegates while keeping the deficit to a minimum. the california endgame will hinge on what happens in indiana. if cruz can battle through the coming adversity for a hoosier state victory, the odds are we<u+2019>re headed to cleveland.









bottom line: even if trump wins indiana and staves off kasich in the <u+2019>burbs, he<u+2019>d probably end up just shy of what he needs <u+2014> perhaps as close as 1,230 delegates. but it<u+2019>s more likely that indiana proves tougher for him and leaves him closer to 1,185 delegates <u+2014> putting all eyes on cleveland.
why trump is still likely to fall 52 delegates short of nomination
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