fbi director james comey <u+2019>s revelation on friday that the bureau was reviewing new evidence related to a previously completed investigation of hillary clinton <u+2019>s email practices roiled the presidential race just 11 days before election day. it also provided the latest chapter in a long history of october surprises. republicans seized on mr. comey<u+2019>s notification to congress to attempt to reinvigorate donald trump <u+2019>s campaign, while mrs. clinton and other democrats challenged the federal bureau of investigation to release the pertinent evidence promptly. the october surprise has been a staple of american politics for decades. the phrase refers to an 11th-hour revelation or turn of events that, whether intentionally or not, has the potential to shift the direction of the presidential race. sometimes october surprises appear to have altered the course of a campaign, sometimes not. here are notable examples: in october 1972, richard nixon was coasting to re-election against democratic south dakota sen. george mcgovern ; polling showed him leading by as much as 26 points that month. though his campaign seemed little in need of a late boost, on oct. 26, nixon<u+2019>s national security adviser henry kissinger declared <u+201c>peace is at hand<u+201d> in vietnam, and that a final cease-fire agreement with the north vietnamese communists could be reached within days. rather than applaud the nixon administration, mr. mcgovern credited the anti-war movement for the development. he questioned why it had taken nixon four years to <u+201c>put an end to this tragic war<u+201d> and declined to speculate on the effect on his chances at winning the election. mr. nixon won re-election in one of the most lopsided landslides in u.s. history. and peace wasn<u+2019>t, in fact, at hand. the war continued another 2<u+00bd> years, ending with the fall of saigon, now known as ho chi minh city, in april 1975. the release of u.s. hostages in iran was the october surprise that never surprised. in november 1979, iranian student activists stormed the u.s. embassy in tehran and took 52 americans hostage. the americans were still held a year later. in the thick of president jimmy carter <u+2019>s re-election campaign against former california gov. ronald reagan, mr. reagan warned repeatedly that mr. carter would unveil an <u+201c>october surprise<u+201d> to turn the election around at the last minute, possibly securing the release of some or all of the hostages. <u+201c>presidents can make things happen, you know,<u+201d> mr. reagan said in a florida television interview on oct. 10. in an interview with the associated press earlier that month, he said he was <u+201c>bracing myself for an october surprise,<u+201d> noting the iranians <u+201c>are not exactly supporters of mine.<u+201d> ultimately, the hostages weren<u+2019>t freed before the election. mr. reagan won a resounding victory<u+2014>and the hostages were released the day he was sworn into office. four days before election day, former reagan defense secretary caspar weinberger was indicted for a second time by federal prosecutors in the iran-contra affair, complicating the re-election effort of republican president george h.w. bush. republicans were outraged at the timing of charges against a gop defense chief from an administration in which mr. bush had served as vice president. mr. bush lost to then-arkansas gov. bill clinton in a three-way race with ross perot running as an independent. mr. weinberger said later the timing of the indictment showed he had become <u+201c>a pawn in a clearly political game,<u+201d> an accusation denied by the prosecutors. mr. weinberger was set to stand trial in january 1993 on charges he lied to congress about his knowledge of arms sales to iran, but mr. bush pardoned him in december 1992. in a november surprise, just five days before the 2000 election, a television station broke news that texas gov. george bush had been arrested in maine for drunken driving 24 years earlier. mr. bush didn<u+2019>t contest the accuracy of the story, and told reporters, <u+201c>i oftentimes said that years ago i made some mistakes. i occasionally drank too much and i did on that night.<u+201d> as for the timing of the revelation, mr. bush said, <u+201c>this happened 24 years ago. i do find it interesting that it<u+2019>s come out four or five days before the election. but i have been straightforward with the people, saying that i used to drink too much in the past. i<u+2019>m straightforward with people saying that i don<u+2019>t drink now.<u+201d> he later accused democratic rival al gore <u+2019>s campaign of <u+201c>dirty politics.<u+201d> the gore team denied any role in the release of the arrest. mr. gore went on to win the popular vote, while mr. bush prevailed in the electoral college after the supreme court awarded him the state of florida in a 5-4 decision. in the days before the 2004 election, the race between president george w. bush and his democratic challenger john kerry had narrowed to just a few points. on oct. 29, the al jazeera arab television network broadcast a new tape by osama bin laden in which the terrorist leader mentioned both candidates by name but said the prospects of future terrorist attacks on the u.s. wouldn<u+2019>t hinge on the results of the election. he also taunted mr. bush about what he mocked as the president<u+2019>s slow response to the news of the sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks; mr. bush was reading a story about a pet goat to school children in florida when chief of staff andy card told him of the attacks. <u+201c>it never occurred to us that the commander-in-chief of the american armed forces would abandon 50,000 of his citizens in the twin towers to face those great horrors alone, the time when they most needed him,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>but because it seemed to him that occupying himself by talking to the little girl about the goat and its butting was more important than occupying himself with the planes and their butting of the skyscrapers, we were given three times the period required to execute the operations.<u+201d> mr. bush had made national security and sept. 11 central to his re-election effort, promising that he, not mr. kerry, was better able to keep americans safe. <u+201c>the enemy of our country is not going to determine the fate of this election,<u+201d> he said after the bin laden tape appeared. mr. bush won re-election. write to daniel nasaw at daniel.nasaw@wsj.com
comey announcement only the latest october surprise  - wsj
daniel nasaw