clinton is consistently ahead in national polls, but the state-level polls tell a different story. by steven shepard 11/07/16 11:17 am est donald trump is still in the hunt. while hillary clinton remains consistently ahead of trump in national, election-eve polling <u+2014> the race is closer in the most populous battleground states, where trump could still spring an upset. story continued below six major national polls released on monday show clinton with a lead ranging between 3 and 6 points <u+2014> an even more significant advantage than president barack obama enjoyed going into the final day of his 2012 re-election campaign. but new surveys in florida and north carolina show the race for those states<u+2019> combined 44 electoral votes on a knife<u+2019>s edge, suggesting that clinton has not locked down an electoral college majority despite her national advantage. the polls <u+2014> both national and state surveys <u+2014> also show larger-than-usual percentages of voters undecided or lining up behind third-party candidates, increasing the odds of an unpredictable result on tuesday. the national surveys released monday are remarkably consistent. in the new polls from pollsters who haven't been in the field since mid-october, clinton<u+2019>s lead has shrunk significantly. but in the higher-frequency polls, clinton<u+2019>s lead is slightly larger than last week, at what now appears to have been the peak of trump<u+2019>s surge. a new bloomberg politics survey , conducted friday through sunday, shows clinton leading trump by 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent. that<u+2019>s closer than clinton<u+2019>s 9-point lead in the previous poll, conducted in mid-october. clinton is winning 86 percent of democrats, roughly equal to trump<u+2019>s 85 percent of republicans. true independents tilt toward trump in the poll, 44 percent to 38 percent. the percentages of democrats and republicans balking at supporting their respective party<u+2019>s nominee are historically large, but constant across the new polls. the latest abc news/washington post tracking poll of the race, conducted wednesday through saturday, gives clinton a 4-point lead, 47 percent to 43 percent. clinton wins 87 percent of democrats compared to trump<u+2019>s 84 percent of republicans, with trump 5 points ahead among independents. the previous rolling, four-night average had clinton ahead by 2 points. a final version of the abc news/washington post tracking poll, conducted thursday through sunday, is coming later monday. clinton also has a 47-percent-to-43-percent lead in a new cbs news poll , conducted wednesday through sunday, though, unlike the other two polls, that reflects a head-to-head matchup instead of a four-way contest. in a subsequent, four-way matchup, clinton<u+2019>s margin remains 4 points: 45 percent to 41 percent. in the four-way matchup, clinton wins 85 percent of democrats, while trump holds 84 percent of republicans. trump has a 2-point lead with independents. clinton led by 3 points in last week<u+2019>s cbs news/new york times poll. clinton also leads by 4 points in a new fox news poll , conducted thursday through sunday, 48 percent to 44 percent. in this survey, clinton is slightly higher and more in line with recent precedent among democrats (91 percent), while trump lags a bit among republicans (86 percent). but trump does have a 6-point lead with independents. another national poll, conducted thursday through sunday by monmouth university , shows clinton ahead by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent. that<u+2019>s closer, however, than its previous poll, in mid-october, in which clinton led by 12 points. and in the sixth national poll, clinton<u+2019>s 6-point lead in the weekly nbc news/surveymonkey poll is unchanged from the previous week. those polls represent larger leads than obama had going into his 2012 campaign against mitt romney. the final polls, in general, ranged from a 3-point obama lead to a 1-point romney edge. (obama won by nearly 4 points after the votes were tabulated.) but clinton<u+2019>s advantage is less clear in the more limited state polling. new quinnipiac university polls in florida and north carolina show clinton ahead by 1 and 2 points, respectively <u+2014> and a siena college poll in north carolina conducted for the new york times<u+2019> upshot shows a tied race. in florida, the race remains neck-and-neck on most measures, with clinton leading overall, 46 percent to 45 percent. clinton wins 85 percent of democrats, compared to trump<u+2019>s 86 percent among republicans. independents tilt toward clinton by a single point. the quinnipiac poll in north carolina shows clinton ahead, 47 percent to 45 percent. the former secretary of state wins 92 percent of democrats, while trump captures 89 percent of republicans. independents here go to trump by 9 points, 48 percent to 39 percent. clinton does lead in both states among early voters <u+2014> by 4 points in florida and by 12 points in north carolina <u+2014> but among likely election-day voters, trump is ahead. meanwhile, the siena/upshot poll in north carolina shows the two candidates deadlocked at 44 percent <u+2014> leaving 12 percent of likely voters either undecided or supporting a minor-party candidate. these two states are critical for both candidates <u+2014> but particularly for trump. if the republican manages to win florida, north carolina and ohio along with them, it puts him within one state of capturing the white house, based on other trends. allocating states as reflected in the current politico battleground states polling average without florida and north carolina <u+2014> and assuming neither candidate flips another competitive, non-battleground state, like clinton winning georgia or trump winning minnesota <u+2014> clinton would be at 279 electoral votes and trump at 215. if trump won both florida and north carolina <u+2014> and held onto leads in iowa and ohio <u+2014> it would put him 11 electoral votes shy of the white house. he could cross that threshold by capturing virginia, where he rallied supporters late sunday night, or michigan, where both campaigns are holding events on monday. (a christopher newport university poll of likely voters in virginia, conducted tuesday through sunday and released early monday, gives clinton a 6-point lead in the commonwealth.) trump could tie clinton by winning minnesota or wisconsin <u+2014> or a combination of nevada and new hampshire, where the polls, on balance, show clinton only narrowly ahead <u+2014> though early-voting figures in nevada are promising for clinton. any of those scenarios is an uphill task that involves winning at least one democratic-leaning state. but, while unlikely, trump<u+2019>s path is more viable than the national polls would suggest. by bill scher by joshua zeitz by thomas wright by jack shafer
trump hangs tough in battleground states - politico
steven shepard jack shafer