italian voters are poised to deliver europe<u+2019>s least surprising political <u+201c>surprise<u+201d> of the year if, as polls predict, they vote against a constitutional reform this weekend. pay less attention to the investors and pundits who have convinced themselves that this referendum is another mortal threat to the european union. the issues at stake are of some procedural consequence. prime minister matteo renzi is asking italians to approve a constitutional amendment that would shrink the country<u+2019>s oversized senate to 100 members from 315 and reduce its ability to block legislation approved in the lower house. the amendments would rebalance the relationship between the national and regional governments, shifting more power to rome. coupled with an electoral reform already approved, mr. renzi says this would make it easier for prime ministers to implement economic reforms. the hope that more authority to legislate will impose greater accountability on political leaders to deliver results is a plausible reason for italians to vote yes. but procedural reforms won<u+2019>t make or break italy<u+2019>s economy as some investors seem to believe. italy lags its neighbors on economic growth because its politicians haven<u+2019>t persuaded voters to back the supply-side reforms the country needs. italy needs a margaret thatcher or ronald reagan <u+2014>even a gerhard schr<u+00f6>der <u+2014>not a few new clauses in the constitution. perhaps because the issues are small, both sides have personalized the debate. mr. renzi invited voters to view the constitutional referendum as a vote on his government, promising to resign if he loses. his popularity has since plummeted, and the polls suggest voters are inclined to take him up on his offer. if mr. renzi loses, markets will have seen it coming, unlike brexit or donald trump. despite important progress on labor-market liberalization and fiscal restraint, mr. renzi has had mixed success as a reformer<u+2014>and now he has let his efforts get bogged down by this contentious constitutional-reform drive. you can forgive voters for leaning toward no as a way to punish mr. renzi for taking his eyes off the reform prize. the prime minister already has backed away from his earlier promise and may well stay in office if he loses. no one is waiting in the wings, despite the rising popularity of the maverick 5-star movement and lingering support for silvio berlusconi <u+2019>s center-right forza italia. while italy experiences the euroskeptic undercurrents of other european union members, this has not become a brexit-style campaign about the eu. any post-renzi leader who attempted an <u+201c>italexit<u+201d> would face considerable opposition. if brussels and investors want something to worry about, it<u+2019>s this: after years of stagnation, the eurozone<u+2019>s third-largest economy can claim as its most promising reformer a politician whose main project is a constitutional reform of debatable value. maybe voters will decide that more accountability under an amended constitution would encourage the right sort of leader to emerge, but it<u+2019>s a good bet the world won<u+2019>t end if they don<u+2019>t.
the italian <u+2018>surprise<u+2019> - wsj
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