the recent formal entries into the republican race by marco rubio, rand paul and ted cruz have stirred up the gop field somewhat, but still, no clear leader has emerged. the new poll finds jeb bush has held on to the top spot among republicans and republican-leaning independents, but bush's edge is slight and there are multiple contenders for the nomination who could overtake him with just a small increase in support at the same time that some previously strong contenders have faded.









overall, 17% of republicans and republican-leaning independents back bush for the gop nomination, while 12% support wisconsin gov. scott walker. paul and rubio stand at 11% each, with former arkansas gov. mike huckabee at 9% and cruz at 7%. former neurosurgeon ben carson and new jersey gov. chris christie, both of whom placed second in cnn/orc polls as recently as last fall, are now well behind the leader at 4% each.









bush's edge in the nomination contest extends across several attributes viewed as key to winning the presidency. he is most often named as the candidate with the right experience to be president (27%), as the one with the best chance of beating the democratic nominee in the general election next november (26%) and as the strongest leader in the large field of gop contenders (21%). he is also more often seen as the candidate with the clearest vision for the country's future (19%), who cares the most about people like you (18%), and who most closely shares your values (19%).









on one metric, however, bush has an emerging challenger. while 18% see bush as the candidate who best represents the future of the republican party, the same share say fellow floridian rubio is the best representation of the gop's future. paul, at 10%, is the only other candidate in double digits on this question.









former florida gov. jeb bush has said his decision to run for the republican nomination will be based on two things: his family and whether he can lift america's spirit. his father and brother are former presidents. wisconsin gov. scott walker has created a political committee that will help him travel and raise money while he considers a 2016 bid. additionally, billionaire businessman david koch said in a private gathering in manhattan this month that he wants walker to be the next president, but he doesn't plan to back anyone in the primaries. louisiana gov. bobby jindal is establishing a committee to formally explore a white house bid. "if i run, my candidacy will be based on the idea that the american people are ready to try a dramatically different direction," he said in a news release provided to cnn on monday, may 18 , an independent from vermont who caucuses with democrats, has said the united states needs a "political revolution" of working-class americans looking to take back control of the government from billionaires. he first announced the run in an email to supporters early on the morning of thursday, april 30. sen. bernie sanders , an independent from vermont who caucuses with democrats, has said the united states needs a "political revolution" of working-class americans looking to take back control of the government from billionaires. he first announced the run in an email to supporters early on the morning of thursday, april 30. on march 2, retired neurosurgeon ben carson announced the launch of an exploratory committee. the move will allow him to raise money that could eventually be transferred to an official presidential campaign and indicates he is on track with stated plans to formally announce a bid in may. south carolina sen. lindsey graham has said he'll make a decision about a presidential run sometime soon. a potential bid could focus on graham's foreign policy stance. hillary clinton launched her presidential bid sunday, april 12, through a video message on social media. she continues to be considered the overwhelming front-runner among possible 2016 democratic presidential candidates. sen. marco rubio announced his bid for the 2016 presidency on monday, april 13, a day after hillary clinton, with a rally in florida. he's a republican rising star from florida who swept into office in 2010 on the back of tea party fervor. but his support of comprehensive immigration reform, which passed the senate but has stalled in the house, has led some in his party to sour on his prospects. lincoln chafee, a republican-turned-independent-turned-democrat former governor and senator of rhode island, said he's running for president on thursday, april 16, as a democrat, but his spokeswoman said the campaign is still in the presidential exploratory committee stages. jim webb, the former democratic senator from virginia, is entertaining a 2016 presidential run. in january, he told npr that his party has not focused on white, working-class voters in past elections. vice president joe biden has twice before made unsuccessful bids for the oval office -- in 1988 and 2008. a former senator known for his foreign policy and national security expertise, biden made the rounds on the morning shows recently and said he thinks he'd "make a good president." new jersey gov. chris christie has started a series of town halls in new hampshire to test the presidential waters, becoming more comfortable talking about national issues and staking out positions on hot topic debates. rep. paul ryan, a former 2012 vice presidential candidate and fiscally conservative budget hawk, says he's keeping his "options open" for a possible presidential run but is not focused on it. sen. rand paul officially announced his presidential bid on tuesday, april 7, at a rally in louisville, kentucky. the tea party favorite probably will have to address previous controversies that include comments on civil rights, a plagiarism allegation and his assertion that the top nsa official lied to congress about surveillance. texas sen. ted cruz announced his 2016 presidential bid on monday, march 23, in a speech at liberty university. the first-term republican and tea party darling is considered a gifted orator and smart politician. he is best known in the senate for his marathon filibuster over defunding obamacare. democrat martin o'malley, the former maryland governor, released a "buzzy" political video in november 2013 in tandem with visits to new hampshire. he also headlined a democratic party event in south carolina, which holds the first southern primary. republican rick perry, the former texas governor, announced in 2013 that he would not be seeking re-election, leading to speculation that he might mount a second white house bid. former pennsylvania sen. rick santorum, a social conservative, gave mitt romney his toughest challenge in the nomination fight last time out and has made trips recently to early voting states, including iowa and south carolina. political observers expect new york gov. andrew cuomo to yield to hillary clinton's run in 2016, fearing there wouldn't be room in the race for two democrats from the empire state. the poll suggests rubio's campaign rollout has helped raise his profile in the party, boosting him into the top five in the overall race for the gop nomination. but sustaining that momentum through the many campaign rollouts to come could be a challenge. cruz's announcement raised his numbers among tea party backers, but he has shown little improvement elsewhere. among tea party supporters, cruz and walker tie for the top slot at 15%, rubio follows at 14%, paul 12%, and bush 11% with the rest in single digits. in a march cnn/orc poll, cruz had just 6% among tea party backers, walker had 22%. cruz and walker's tea party strength seems to rest on their credentials as strong leaders, perhaps burnished by their high-profile stands on obama's health care overhaul in the senate and labor issues in wisconsin, respectively: 21% of tea party republicans call cruz the strongest leader in the field, 16% say walker is. the poll finds little sign of an announcement bump for paul. in general, republicans see bush as the best possible candidate to match up against the democratic nominee in 2016, but in hypothetical general election matchups against clinton, bush trails by a large margin, as do each of the other seven republicans tested. related: ready to run hillary clinton tries again marco rubio fares best against the former first lady, trailing clinton by 14 points, 55% to 41%. bush trails clinton by 17 points, 56% to 39%. christie and paul fall 19 points behind clinton, each putting up 39% to clinton's 58%. huckabee, walker, carson and cruz each trail clinton by more than 20 points. clinton declared her candidacy for the democratic nomination for president with a web video and promptly hit the road to iowa and new hampshire. her campaign begins in an extremely strong position among democrats nationwide: nearly 7 in 10 democrats and democratic-leaning independents support her. overall, 69% back the former secretary of state over vice president joe biden (11%), vermont senator bernie sanders (5%), former virginia senator jim webb (3%), former rhode island governor lincoln chafee (1%) and former maryland governor martin o'malley (1%). clinton is also the second choice of just over half of the democrats who prefer someone else for the nomination. all told, clinton is the first or second choice of 83% of the potential democratic electorate. jim webb: "i look forward to listening and talking with more people in the coming months as i decide whether or not to run." joe biden: "that's a family personal decision that i'm going to make sometime at the end of the summer." martin o'malley: "i've been very encouraged as i travel around the country by a number of people who repeat again and again and again their desire for getting things done again as a country and also for new leadership to get those things done." elizabeth warren: "i'm not running for president....i don't get who writes these headlines or what they're about. i think there's just kind of a pundit world out there." jerry brown: "if no one runs and [everyone] says we'll have an absent democratic nominee, would i rule that out? i mean, that would be a little silly, wouldn't it?" former rhode island governor lincoln chafee is a one-time republican, turned independent, now democrat and is exploring a run for the presidency. on hillary clinton, he told cnn "... anybody who voted for the iraq war should not be president and certainly should not be leading the democratic party." bernie sanders: "i haven't made up my final decision and i've got to say a lot of my strongest supporters say, 'bernie, you've gotta stay out of the damn democratic party, run as an independent." kirsten gillibrand: the new york senator has said she'll support hillary clinton "110 percent." andrew cuomo (in 2014): "i'm focusing on running for governor. and then i'm going to focus on being the best governor i can be." brian schweitzer: when asked by time if he would be a better candidate for president than clinton: "well, i think so, of course. i think i have a background and a resume that isn't just in government." any possible democratic competitors face a steep uphill battle in trying to draw support away from clinton. democrats are broadly enthusiastic about a clinton candidacy, far more than they are for any other potential nominee. overall, 58% of democrats say they would be enthusiastic if she won the party's nomination. about a quarter say they would be enthusiastic about a biden nomination (26%) while 11% say so about sanders, 7% webb, 6% o'malley and 2% chafee. one area where clinton's numbers wilt: only about half of democratic men (49%) say they would be enthusiastic about having clinton atop the democratic ticket, compared with nearly two-thirds of democratic women (65%). democrats overwhelmingly see clinton as holding several presidential characteristics. nearly 9 in 10 democrats see clinton as a strong and decisive leader (88% say that description applies to her) and as having a vision for the country's future (88%). about 8 in 10 say she represents the future of the democratic party (82%) and cares about people like them (82%). democrats are slightly less apt to say clinton is honest and trustworthy, though three-quarters do view her as honest (75%, about the same as in march). the cnn/orc international poll was conducted by telephone, april 16-19, among a random national sample of 1,018 adult americans. results for the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. among the 435 republicans and independents who lean republican, it is 4.5 points, and among the 458 democrats and independents who lean democratic, it is 4.5 points.
as campaigns launch, poll finds gop field stays tight
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