the third and final presidential debate<u+00a0>wednesday<u+00a0>presents republican nominee donald trump with a last chance to address tens of millions of voters and recast a race in which polls show his democratic rival, hillary clinton, is pulling away. it isn<u+2019>t an easy task, political scientists say, because debates rarely provide a singular, game-changing moment in a presidential contest. instead, members of both parties expect another slugfest when the two widely disliked nominees meet in las vegas. democrats want mrs. clinton to articulate a positive vision for the country at a time when the election has revolved around accusations of sexual misconduct and dishonesty. <u+201c>this is her last big opportunity to be in front of a big national audience and make her case,<u+201d> clinton spokeswoman jennifer palmieri told reporters<u+00a0>tuesday. she said undecided voters want to hear about issues. republicans, meanwhile, say mr. trump needs to focus on his popular anti-establishment message and shift attention away from controversies over his treatment of women and rifts with fellow republicans. mr. trump has tried to introduce new messages into his campaign in recent days, but it has been a faltering effort. he promoted term limits on members of congress, and temporary lobbying bans on legislative and executive-branch workers. he also called for pre-debate drug tests, offered dire warnings about voter fraud and attacked his party<u+2019>s top elected official, house speaker paul ryan, saying on monday mr. ryan may not want him to win because of the wisconsin congressman<u+2019>s own presidential ambitions. <u+201c>for once he needs to make this a race that<u+2019>s not just about him,<u+201d> said kevin madden, a republican consultant who advised the party<u+2019>s 2012 nominee, mitt romney. <u+201c>clinton wants this race to be a referendum on trump and his lack of temperament, and every time she lays the bait he never disappoints in taking it.<u+201d> on the campaign trail, mr. trump has highlighted the hacked emails of clinton campaign chairman john podesta. he says the messages depict mrs. clinton<u+2019>s close ties to wall street bankers and special interests. mr. trump<u+2019>s campaign manager, kellyanne conway, said the republican will continue to talk about those topics at the debate. <u+201c>he will press this case,<u+201d> ms. conway said in an email. the federal bureau of investigation suspects russian intelligence officials stole the clinton campaign emails, and mrs. clinton is likely to try to put mr. trump on the defensive given his praise of russian president vladimir putin <u+2019>s leadership. on tuesday, campaigning in colorado, mr. trump promised an <u+201c>interesting<u+201d> debate as his team confirmed he had invited president barack obama <u+2019>s kenyan-born half-brother, malik, who has had a strained relationship with the president. also invited is pat smith, the mother of a state department computer consultant who was killed in the 2012 benghazi terrorist attacks. his guests at the last debate included three woman who have accused mrs. clinton<u+2019>s husband, former president bill clinton, of sexual misconduct. if there was a race-changing debate it probably was the first one, said james stimson, a university of north carolina political science professor who has studied presidential debates. after several weeks of disciplined campaigning, mr. trump had nearly closed the gap with mrs. clinton heading into the new york sept. 22 event. but after his unfocused and uneven performance, mrs. clinton<u+2019>s lead grew. she had an advantage of 2.3 percentage points before the face-off, according to a real clear politics average of polls. she had a 7-point advantage<u+00a0>tuesday. mr. stimson, who determined that no debate had caused a substantial shift in the polls between 1960 and 2000, said the first debate was the <u+201c>singular important event<u+201d> so far in this year<u+2019>s race. <u+201c>that made the difference between a narrow lead for clinton that could have been easily overcome, and the lead we see today,<u+201d> mr. stimson said. <u+201c>it had been to his advantage that he was an outsider, but he simply showed he didn<u+2019>t know what he was doing.<u+201d> a record 84 million viewers watched the debate on television, and mr. trump<u+2019>s troubles were reinforced on social media. a<u+00a0><u+201c>saturday<u+00a0>night live<u+201d> depiction of the first debate<u+2014>in which actor alec baldwin portrayed mr. trump as illogical and overly confrontational<u+2014>has been viewed more than 36 million times on youtube and facebook , making it the second most popular snl skit ever, a spokesman for the show said. a <u+201c>star wars<u+201d>-related skit in 2016 is the show<u+2019>s top-viewed video. but mr. trump<u+2019>s legions of followers on twitter and facebook provide him with a chance to deliver a viral moment wednesday that may remain in voters<u+2019> minds for the final 20 days of the race, said robert erikson, a columbia university political science professor. <u+201c>if there is some major event from the debate<u+2014>a shocker of some kind or another<u+2014>social media will help amplify that more than it would have been otherwise,<u+201d> said mr. erikson, co-author of a study that similarly determined debates have little impact on presidential races. <u+201c>but even on social media, people are mostly reinforcing their previous preferences.<u+201d> on twitter, the most talked about debate ever was the first presidential debate of 2012, which prompted more than 10 million tweets when president barack obama dueled with gop nominee mitt romney. that record stood until the second presidential debate this year, when more than 17 million debate-related tweets were sent. clinton officials say the debate format wednesday will lend itself to sharper exchanges than the town-hall setting of their second showdown, with the candidates behind podiums speaking to a moderator rather than to voters in the audience. about 66 million people watched the town hall in st. louis, during which a more aggressive mr. trump hewed closer to his attack lines against mrs. clinton and halted an exodus of republicans from his candidacy after the release of a 2005 videotape showing him bragging about groping women. <u+2014>peter nicholas contributed to this article. write to michael c. bender at mike.bender@wsj.com and laura meckler at laura.meckler@wsj.com corrections & amplifications: a <u+201c>saturday night live<u+201d> depiction of the first debate<u+2014>in which actor alec baldwin portrayed mr. trump as illogical and overly confrontational<u+2014>has been viewed more than 36 million times on youtube and facebook, making it the second most popular snl skit ever, a spokesman for the show said. his first name was incorrectly given as alex in an earlier version of this article. (oct. 19)
debate will be final showdown before millions  - wsj
laura meckler