donald trump, trailing in opinion polls and facing new accusations by women of unwanted sexual contact, has begun arguing he will win the election on a surge of silent backers who have gone undetected by surveys and the political establishment. mr. trump, who consistently draws thousands of supporters to rallies, said last week his election would be <u+201c>brexit all over again,<u+201d> referring to the unexpected majority of british citizens who voted this year to exit the european union. his theory<u+2014>which others view skeptically<u+2014>holds that fear of social stigma prevents some voters from admitting they back him, including when talking to pollsters. last week he called the polls <u+201c>crooked<u+201d><u+00a0>and said, <u+201c>the whole election is being rigged.<u+2019><u+2019> <u+201c>this is the only realistic sketch for a trump victory, and i think there<u+2019>s some truth to it,<u+201d> said david hill, a veteran republican pollster. he said he saw evidence of trump voters reluctant to admit their support while working on jeb bush <u+2019>s gop primary campaign. <u+201c>but expecting this will be enough to make up 3 points or more?<u+201d> mr. hill said. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s a bridge too far.<u+201d> challenges to mr. trump<u+2019>s campaign have mounted as a number of women have accused him of unwanted sexual advances and after a 2005 recording surfaced of him bragging his celebrity allowing him to grope and kiss women. on friday, a former candidate on <u+201c>the apprentice<u+2019><u+2019> said that mr. trump had kissed and touched her without consent in 2007. the trump campaign didn<u+2019>t respond to a request for comment on her story. but at a rally in north carolina, mr. trump rejected claims of sexual misconduct and blamed the allegations on the media . <u+201c>this whole thing is one big fix,<u+201c> the republican nominee said. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s one big, ugly lie. it<u+2019>s one big fix.<u+201d> mr. trump trails hillary clinton by more than 5 percentage points in the real clear politics aggregate of polls , compared with a 1-point margin in late september. other poll aggregators show mrs. clinton with a wider lead. opinion surveys have failed to accurately measure populist unrest around the globe this year, particularly when a movement<u+2019>s supporters were characterized as immoral or uneducated. the most recent example was in south america earlier this month, when colombian voters rejected a peace accord between their government and the country<u+2019>s marxist rebel group. several polls just ahead of the vote showed the proposal would pass by a margin of 20 percentage points, as critics of the deal were cast as morally inferior. it failed with 50.2% of voters opposed. earlier this year, proponents of brexit were characterized as xenophobic and narrow-minded. it passed after polls heading into the election showed it would fail. the theory of silent supporters has been picked up by some of mr. trump<u+2019>s backers. asked about the polls showing him down in colorado, longtime resident jeanie seder relayed a conversation she had with her hairdresser. <u+201c>she said, <u+2018>i<u+2019>m voting for trump, but i can<u+2019>t say that to anyone else,<u+2019><u+201d> mrs. seder said before a rally in longwood, colo. mr. trump <u+201c>says everything we think, but there<u+2019>s just a lot of people who are just being quiet.<u+201d> republican consultants are more skeptical. pollster whit ayers, who has worked for sen. marco rubio (r., fla.), said any hidden support for mr. trump likely would be balanced by <u+201c>hillary republicans<u+201d> who don<u+2019>t want to admit their preferences publicly. in the latest wall street journal/nbc news poll, released sunday, 13% of those surveyed said they knew people who supported the republican nominee but were hesitant to say so, because they worried what others might think. at the same time, 8% said they knew people who were voting for mrs. clinton but were afraid to disclose their preference. david johnson, an iowa state senator from the state<u+2019>s heavily republican northwest corner, changed his party registration from republican to independent to protest the trump nomination. since then, mr. johnson has been disowned by the gop chairmen in the five counties he represents and had his committee assignments stripped in the state senate. but he said he has heard from local republicans who agree with his stance, but fear a backlash. <u+201c>i<u+2019>ve received a lot of support from people who just don<u+2019>t want to perhaps make it public,<u+201d> mr. johnson said. stuart stevens, a top adviser to 2012 republican nominee mitt romney, pointed out that mr. trump is underperforming in nearly every slice of the electorate. <u+201c>this is what i call the <u+2018>lost tribes of the amazon<u+2019> theory: if you just paddle the boat up the amazon and beat the drum loudly, these lost tribes are going to come to the boat and vote for you,<u+201d> mr. stevens said. <u+201c>but they<u+2019>re not there.<u+201d> still, mr. trump may find hidden supporters in some battleground states, where the number of working-class whites who didn<u+2019>t vote in 2012 far exceeded mr. romney<u+2019>s deficit that year. the challenge for mr. trump is to make sure those residents are registered and motivated to vote. it is unclear that he has the field operation to do so. in ohio<u+2014>a state crucial to mr. trump<u+2019>s strategy<u+2014>more than 2.3 million working-class whites sat out the 2012 election, far more than the 166,272 votes that provided the winning margin that year in the state for president barack obama, a wall street journal analysis show. in pennsylvania, more than three million working-class whites didn<u+2019>t vote in the last election, about 10 times mr. obama<u+2019>s winning margin there of 309,840. in wisconsin, about 908,000 working-class whites didn<u+2019>t vote, compared with the gop<u+2019>s deficit of 213,019 that year, the journal analysis shows. but to win in those states with these voters, mr. trump would need large turnout increases. turnout among whites of all education levels jumped substantially in 2004, when then-president george w. bush sought re-election in a contest with democrat john kerry. white turnout jumped by more than 8 percentage points in pennsylvania and by 7 points in wisconsin, for example, according to research by demographer william frey of the brookings institution. but mr. trump would need larger boosts in turnout among working-class whites to erase his party<u+2019>s 2012 deficit in pennsylvania, as much as 16%, the journal analysis found. the assessment assumes that all the additional voters backed mr. trump and that the turnout and preferences of all other voting groups remained the same as in 2012. in wisconsin, where mr. trump is scheduled to campaign this week, he would need a 15% surge in working-class whites, the journal analysis shows. <u+2014>reid j. epstein contributed to this article. write to michael c. bender at mike.bender@wsj.com and dante chinni at dante.chinni@wsj.com
donald trump says he will win on surge of silent supporters  - wsj
michael c. bender