there are no certainties in politics<u+2014>these days especially<u+2014>so no predictions here about angela merkel <u+2019>s chances of being re-elected chancellor of germany next year now that she<u+2019>s decided to run for a fourth term. but given the shambolic state of the political opposition, her chances look exceedingly good. mrs. merkel<u+2019>s announcement, delivered at a meeting of christian democrats on sunday, was widely cheered by stability-seeking germans and investors. had she chosen to retire, it<u+2019>s not clear who could have credibly led her center-right party, which has been in power since 2005. as for her opponents, the center-left and russia-friendly social democrats are running poorly in the polls, while the anti-immigration alternative for germany, or afd, is too far-right for most voters, despite gaining ground in recent local elections. mrs. merkel<u+2019>s enduring electoral strength means that germany is likely to be spared the political shocks that have recently paralyzed or transformed politics in countries such as spain and britain. it also helps that germany<u+2019>s economy has been growing at what counts in europe as a healthy rate<u+2014>1.7% year-on-year in the third quarter. unemployment is remarkably low, at 3.8%, and the labor-participation rate is higher than america<u+2019>s. but these advantages mask problems that german politicians should be discussing more publicly. too many germans are stuck in low-paying temporary jobs as labor laws still deter employers from hiring full-timers. low global energy prices have masked the costs of mrs. merkel<u+2019>s ruinously expensive green-energy energiewende, but that will change with the next commodity boom. and recent woes at deutsche bank may suggest trouble ahead for other german banks. germans also remain deeply skeptical about mrs. merkel<u+2019>s open-door policy to refugees from the middle east. so far the most vocal opposition has come from afd, which has lent the issue a disreputable taint among mainstream voters. but the issue of rapidly assimilating so many refugees isn<u+2019>t going to go away, and germany could use a more honest public debate about how much migration it is willing to accept, and at what cost. germany<u+2019>s next leader will also face a changing, and more dangerous, european-security picture. vladimir putin wants to dominate in the east and neuter the nato alliance if he can. u.s. president-elect donald trump <u+2019>s intentions toward europe aren<u+2019>t clear, though he is sure to demand that nato members such as germany contribute more to their defense. all of this should play to mrs. merkel<u+2019>s strengths, assuming she can avoid more migration-like mistakes. germany has been europe<u+2019>s anchor in a turbulent decade, and there<u+2019>s plenty to recommend a familiar and steadying chancellor. but germany also runs the risk of letting stability turn into stagnation. whatever the outcome of next year<u+2019>s election, germans deserve a vigorous political debate about the challenges they face in an increasingly dangerous world.
angela merkel<u+2019>s status quo - wsj
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