can hillary clinton win the republican strongholds arizona and georgia? at the moment, thanks to donald j. trump<u+2019>s self-destructive tendencies and both states<u+2019> growing populations of professionals and nonwhites, it<u+2019>s possible. the 2016 election is poised to be the most polarized presidential election in our lifetime, deeply split along racial, gender, generational and educational lines. the outcome could leave the balance of power in washington virtually unchanged and yet simultaneously heighten both parties<u+2019> distrust of each other to the level of hysteria. it also promises to reorder the electoral map in powerful ways. in 1996, bill clinton carried iowa, missouri and ohio on his way to re-election, while losing colorado, north carolina and virginia. twenty years later, hillary clinton<u+2019>s path to 270 electoral votes is more likely to do the opposite. the matchup between mrs. clinton and mr. trump is accelerating trends that were expected to unfold gradually but have, in 2016, emerged to jolt the electoral map. the parties are realigning along an axis primarily of educational achievement, but also of race. democrats have been on the upswing with minorities, college-educated whites and younger voters, while republicans are increasingly reliant on older whites, whites without a degree, or both. this explains why mr. trump is looking for breakthroughs in states where non-college whites outnumber college-educated whites the most: iowa (by 30 percent), wisconsin (by 25 percent), ohio (by 24 percent) and nevada (by 18 percent). conversely, it explains why mrs. clinton maintains an edge in states where that margin is closer, like virginia (2 percent) and colorado (0.1 percent), and has a strong opportunity to win north carolina (12 percent). the clinton campaign calculates that its candidate is likelier to prevail by <u+201c>disqualifying<u+201d> mr. trump <u+2014> using ads to make the idea of voting for him socially unacceptable in professional suburbs <u+2014> among additional well-educated voters (in states like north carolina) than by holding on to working-class voters tempted by mr. trump<u+2019>s populism (in states like ohio). the clinton campaign and its allies have run fewer ads puncturing mr. trump<u+2019>s credentials as a business savior or painting a picture of what the economy might look like for middle-income earners under a trump presidency. that strategy carries risks. in 2012, president obama was able to keep states like iowa, ohio and wisconsin in his column with early and effective ads linking mitt romney to bain capital and cayman islands bank accounts. mr. obama didn<u+2019>t carry a lot of blue-collar counties in these states, but the barrage helped him keep the margins close, by holding his share of the vote above 45 percent in working-class mill towns like steubenville, ohio, and wausau, wis. in 2016, however, many surveys have shown mr. trump holding a lead in iowa and running nearly even in ohio. moreover, a cook political report analysis of census data and official election results found that there were around 47 million whites without a college degree who were eligible to vote in 2012, but didn<u+2019>t. the overwhelming majority weren<u+2019>t even registered to vote. if mr. trump roused only a fraction of these voters, he could erase mr. obama<u+2019>s five-million-vote national margin and potentially flip states where these <u+201c>missing<u+201d> whites were prevalent, like florida, ohio, pennsylvania, virginia and nevada. fortunately for mrs. clinton, mr. trump<u+2019>s campaign doesn<u+2019>t appear to have undertaken the kind of effort required to identify, register and turn out these whites. that<u+2019>s just one of the reasons mrs. clinton entered the homestretch in a commanding position <u+2014> even before the <u+201c>access hollywood<u+201d> tape. states like arizona and georgia may have a supporting role in a clinton victory this year <u+2014> if she carries either state, she will have already won in a landslide. but in future cycles, these states may be on a trajectory for a starring role <u+2014> assuming america survives this election. david n. wasserman is the house of representatives editor at the cook political report. follow the new york times opinion section on facebook and twitter (@nytopinion), and sign up for the opinion today newsletter .
what are the new battleground states?
david n. wasserman