rolla, mo.<u+2014>one week before election day, missouri senate democratic candidate jason kander stopped his campaign bus outside a pie bakery wedged into a strip mall. as locals forked up quiche and coconut cream, mr. kander, missouri<u+2019>s secretary of state, urged his supporters to rally their friends to go to the polls next tuesday. <u+201c>this race is tied. it comes down to who puts in the work,<u+201d> mr. kander said tuesday of his effort to unseat incumbent republican sen. roy blunt. <u+201c>we will power it on pie and on enthusiasm.<u+201d> mr. blunt is ahead of mr. kander by less than 1 percentage point in the real clear politics average of polls, making missouri one of the half-dozen tightest senate races whose outcome will decide which party controls the chamber next year. capital journal is wsj.com<u+2019>s home for election 2016 news. it is a measure of how the struggle for the senate majority in races across the country will likely turn on the narrowest of margins. outside groups have poured money into battleground senate state in the contest<u+2019>s final stretch, deluging voters with political ads. in the most volatile year in recent political history, even the closest observers are uncertain of how the senate will swing, unsure of whether republicans turned off by donald trump will vote for gop lawmakers lower on the ballot and how the latest presidential campaign eruptions will play out in the few remaining days. but for all the turmoil of the past year, republicans remain in a challenging position: they must defend 24 seats, compared with just 10 being defended by democrats, and they are outspent by democrats in several key states. <u+201c>because democrats have so many takeover opportunities, it<u+2019>s easier to see democrats gaining control rather than republicans holding the majority, but republicans are in the game,<u+201d> said nathan gonzales, editor of the nonpartisan rothenberg & gonzales political report. given how many voters view mr. trump unfavorably, for republicans to <u+201c>still be within striking distance of holding the majority is remarkable,<u+201d> he said. polls have yet to show a major impact from federal bureau of investigation director james comey<u+2019>s unusual decision late last week to alert capitol hill that investigators are reviewing new emails that might be relevant to its previously completed inquiry into democratic nominee hillary clinton. view interactive keeping mrs. clinton<u+2019>s decision to maintain a private emailserver in the headlines could help unify gop voters and hurt down-ballot democrats, particularly in gop-leaning states like missouri, where mr. trump is leading by more than 11 percentage points. the two presidential candidates are closer in most of the other senate battlegrounds, with gop incumbents often polling better than mr. trump. democrats need to win a net of four seats to gain control of the senate if mrs. clinton wins the white house and her running mate, sen. tim kaine of virginia, casts the tiebreaking vote as vice president. most nonpartisan analysts expect democratic challengers will win in illinois and wisconsin, though polls in wisconsin have shown a tightening race between gop sen. ron johnson and former democratic sen. russ feingold . one big question likely to be unanswered until late on election night is whether democrats will keep the nevada senate seat being vacated by retiring minority leader harry reid. gop rep. joe heck was edging democrat catherine cortez masto by 1 percentage point in an average of recent polls, but democrats said they were encouraged by the first 11 days of early and absentee voting, which showed their turnout as higher than republicans statewide. if democrats keep nevada, they would only need four seats to win senate control if mrs. clinton is elected. that could include tight senate races in states where mrs. clinton is leading, including pennsylvania and new hampshire; states where she is neck-and-neck with mr. trump, including north carolina and florida; and states where mr. trump is ahead, including indiana and missouri. in missouri, democrats hope mr. kander can win despite mr. trump<u+2019>s lead in the conservative state. campaigning with mr. kander on tuesday, sen. heidi heitkamp (d., n.d.) told the crowd at the pie shop that she had pulled off a similar feat in 2012. she won her race by just 1 percentage point in a state where gop nominee mitt romney beat president barack obama by almost 20 percentage points. <u+201c>north dakota is even redder than missouri, if you can imagine that,<u+201d> she said. democrats have been pummeling mr. blunt, a former history teacher, for his long career in washington<u+2014>he served seven terms in the house before being elected to the senate in 2010, and for his family<u+2019>s d.c. connections. his wife is the head of government affairs at kraft heinz co. , though official disclosure forms note she doesn<u+2019>t lobby the senate. meanwhile, republicans have worked to tie mr. kander to mrs. clinton, with one gop super pac airing an ad morphing his face into high-profile democratic lawmakers, including mrs. clinton and mr. obama. <u+201c>you know, in this election, jason kander<u+2019>s talked a lot more about my family than what he can do to help your family, and that<u+2019>s not an accident,<u+201d> mr. blunt said in an ad released wednesday. <u+201c>the clinton/kander agenda is more of the same.<u+201d> voters in missouri said they were juggling both state issues and concerns over which party will run the senate next year. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not a big blunt fan, but i<u+2019>ll probably be voting for him,<u+201d> said retired software developer john kyle, a republican who lives in st. louis county. <u+201c>i do not want to see republicans lose control of the senate.<u+201d> meanwhile, rolla resident and democrat norma harris said she often likes to have the checks and balances of divided government, but this year she is supporting both mrs. clinton and mr. kander. <u+201c>the republican party has gone so far<u+2014>it is no, no, no to everything,<u+201d> she said, citing the vacancy on the supreme court. <u+201c>there would be more of a chance for something to happen<u+201d> if democrats win the senate, she said. both parties are unleashing millions of dollars into the election<u+2019>s final days. a late surge in big-dollar republican fundraising has allowed gop outside groups to even the score with democrats, who several weeks ago were set to significantly outspend them in eight of 10 key races. in nevada, republicans are set to spend $7 million in the final week alone, surpassing democrats<u+2019> planned $4.5 million. in indiana, they will outspend democrats by half a million dollars. democrats are still set to outspend republicans by at least $1 million in pennsylvania and new hampshire, and by narrower margins in north carolina and missouri. <u+2014>michelle hackman contributed to this article. write to kristina peterson at kristina.peterson@wsj.com
missouri race, like fight for senate itself, is dead heat - wsj
kristina peterson