kurdish peshmerga fighters stand on top of a military vehicle in khazer, which is about 19 miles from mosul, as they advance towards villages surrounding mosul on oct. 17. | ap photo the battle to reclaim the iraqi city from the islamic state risks spawning revenge attacks that play into trump's muscular message on terror. by nahal toosi 10/17/16 03:37 pm edt updated 10/17/16 06:46 pm edt the new military offensive against the islamic state in the iraqi city of mosul has injected a risky and unpredictable dimension into the final stretch of the u.s. presidential race, including the prospect of retaliatory attacks that could embolden donald trump's struggling campaign. u.s. officials insist the 2016 election isn't a driving factor in their military strategy against the islamic state terrorist network. they acknowledge, however, that if isil loses a prize such as mosul, where roughly 1.5 million civilians still live, it could prompt it to call for attacks by isil-trained fighters or lone-wolf sympathizers in the u.s. or europe. story continued below <u+201c>unlike your father<u+2019>s terrorist group, they tend to strike out after they are hit, usually within a few weeks,<u+201d> an obama administration official who works on homeland security programs told politico on monday. the official added that no specific alert or warnings have been issued to u.s. agencies due to the mosul battle, but "the government is bearing down a little more, especially given isil<u+2019>s past activities when something is meted out against it.<u+201d> in terms of the west, europe is the more likely isil target. isil has many foot soldiers on the continent, some of whom trained with it in iraq and syria, and the group is suspected in several past attacks in europe. in the u.s., the odds are higher that a home-grown radical inspired by isil's violent vision of islam could stage an assault. regardless of the target, any such attack plays into trump's message of being the "law-and-order candidate" with a secret plan to wipe out the isil threat. foreign policy by michael crowley but if u.s.-backed forces quickly defeat islamic state jihadists holed up in the iraqi city, hillary clinton <u+2014> whose track record on combating terrorism is intrinsically linked with that of president barack obama <u+2014> could get a boost in the critical closing days of her campaign. the fight against isil is likely to feature prominently during wednesday's third and final debate between trump and clinton, which is expected to focus in part on foreign affairs. past attacks blamed on isil, especially the massacre of 130 people in paris last november, jolted the presidential primaries, bringing national security to the forefront. trump has promised to go hard after the islamic state if he is elected president, but he has been vague about what exactly he will do <u+2014> saying he's purposefully being secretive to keep the terrorists off-balance. in recent days, he's argued that isil will "take over" the united states if clinton wins the white house. asked for comment, the trump campaign on monday pointed to a statement by retired lt. gen. michael flynn, an adviser to the republican nominee, in which he wished good luck to the iraqi forces and u.s. military advisers trying to retake mosul. "we know it will be a tough fight against a vicious, barbaric and very determined enemy, and we hope that it will be won quickly with as few casualties as possible," flynn said. clinton is considered more hawkish than obama, but she has indicated she will pursue a similar strategy against isil, relying on coalitions and non-american ground troops. she's also accused trump of playing into isil's hands by taking stands deeply offensive to muslims, such as saying they should be barred from entering the united states. her campaign did not offer immediate comment on the mosul offensive. a second administration official said obama's main focus is on protecting americans. "we have worked closely with our counter isil partners to mitigate the flow of foreign fighters by pushing isil off the border with turkey, reinforced law enforcement partnerships including through interpol, and worked with foreign partners to strengthen counter-terrorism laws, and disrupt plots," the official said. much of the islamic state's self-promotion revolves around the idea it is an actual state <u+2014> an islamic caliphate with land under its control. as it spread in syria and iraq in 2014 and 2015, the group appeared heavily focused on expanding that state through territorial gains. but as isil lost land over the past year, it has increasingly lashed out beyond its borders. the terrorist network is suspected in a slew of horrific attacks in muslim countries, including one that killed dozens in baghdad this past weekend, as well as strikes on western nations. the battle for mosul could take weeks, even months. but if the islamic state manages to lose the city, it will be a "rare, undeniable and high-profile loss in the making for the group," said patrick skinner, an analyst with the soufan group. "taking mosul in june 2014 was what launched the group into the stratosphere of global notoriety; losing it will be something they can't spin away." not that isil isn't trying. "the group has already prepped its supporters for the eventual loss of major cities and has long called for attacks however and wherever possible," skinner said. "it is an open question if the high-profile battle for mosul generates an increase threat of these attacks." robert ford, a former u.s. ambassador to syria, pointed out that isil had known for months that mosul was in the cross-hairs, yet it hasn't staged any europe or u.s.-based attacks in recent weeks. that suggests the group's ability to stage strikes in the west has been degraded by security forces determined to destroy it. after all, there's no reason for the group to wait to stage an attack until after it has lost mosul, ford pointed out. by michael crowley "every day they wait they run the risk of security services rolling their attackers up," added ford, who is now with the middle east institute. isil emerged from al-qaeda's branch in iraq, but its ability to control territory set it apart from most terrorist organizations. its capture of land also was a huge draw for wannabe jihadists, many of whom fantasized about living in an islamic paradise. if the group loses all of its territory in iraq and syria, that will no doubt hinder its recruitment, which analysts say is already on the decline. but isil is unlikely to vanish entirely; more likely it will evolve into a more traditional terrorist group, with diffuse cells determined to wreak havoc. rep. adam schiff, the ranking democrat on the house intelligence committee, told politico that isil's loss of land "necessary if not sufficient" for its total defeat. he added that the political problems in iraq that helped fuel isil's rise <u+2014> including sectarian strife that has pitted shiite muslims against sunni muslims <u+2014> must be resolved so that isil and other terrorist groups don't linger. "the aftermath of the fight for mosul will be even more important strategically than the battle itself," he said, pointing out that there are strong fears certain ethnic and religious groups could be targeted. rep. ed royce, chairman of the house foreign affairs committee, shared similar concerns in a statement to politico. "political and humanitarian preparations must be escalated dramatically as the fight to liberate mosul gets underway," the republican said, adding that he was especially worried about the role that iranian-backed militias were playing. an array of kurdish and iraqi forces, backed by u.s. airstrikes, have already freed a number of other iraqi cities from isil's control, including ramadi and fallujah. since the mosul offensive was announced on sunday, people in baghdad have been "glued to their televisions in anticipation of how the operations will unfold," said ali al-mawlawi of the al-bayan center, a think tank in the iraqi capital. "there's certainly a sense of pride that our security forces have come so far in a relatively short amount of time. the anticipation is mixed with trepidation about how isil will respond," al-mawlawi said. "there's an expectation that isis will try to increase suicide attacks in baghdad, as they did after fallujah was liberated, but that doesn't seem to have stopped people from going about their daily business." by brent griffiths in a written exchange with amarnath amarasingam, a fellow at george washington university, an isil fighter dismissed the notion that the group's recent territorial losses were a death blow. the exchange took place after isil fighters over the weekend fled dabiq , a syrian town the group had predicted would be the site of an apocalyptic battle between muslims and christians. the isil fighter downplayed the loss of dabiq by pointing out it was turkish-backed syrian fighters, not western troops, that took the town back <u+2014> suggesting the apocalyptic battle may happen later. "allah's land is vast," the unidentified fighter also wrote in the text messages, which amarasingam posted on twitter. "it's not confined between iraq & syria." bryan bender and andrew hanna contributed to this report. by bill scher by joshua zeitz by thomas wright by jack shafer
how the siege of mosul could help trump - politico
nahal toosi michael crowley michael crowley brent griffiths jack shafer