the 2016 election upended conventional wisdom about presidential campaign politics at almost every turn this year, and the predictions and expectations of the republican and democratic insiders who comprise the politico caucus were no exception. as the caucus evolved over the past 20 months from a poll of activists, strategists and operatives in the earliest primary and caucus states to a survey covering all the 11 battleground states that determined the general election, there was one constant: insiders in both parties <u+2014> for the most part <u+2014> underestimated donald trump. story continued below that underestimation underscores how unlikely trump<u+2019>s rise was <u+2014> from the moment he announced he threw his hat in the ring as a first-time candidate in june 2015, to vanquishing sitting and former senators and governors in the gop nominating process, to overcoming historically low poll ratings to win an electoral college victory. it also accentuates the fact that <u+2014> with only a few exceptions <u+2014> trump was elected without the backing, help or employment of many of the insiders in the states who<u+2019>ve worked on or supported past presidential campaigns. the caucus insiders didn<u+2019>t miss every aspect of trump<u+2019>s ascendance. they were late to acknowledge his appeal among republicans in the early states, but understood his strength before voters actually cast their ballot. they were skeptical of his general-election appeal initially, but some still saw a path to the presidency even when he fell behind hillary clinton in the polls. 2016 by politico magazine and even when most insiders discounted trump<u+2019>s chances, some saw his surprising strength beneath the surface. here<u+2019>s a tour of the key moments and inflection points in the campaign, and how these insiders did <u+2014> and didn<u+2019>t <u+2014> see trump coming. (publication date) february 13, 2015 : in the politico caucus debut, insiders in iowa and new hampshire tap clinton, wisconsin gov. scott walker and former florida gov. jeb bush as the early favorites to win their respective nominating contests. trump, who wouldn<u+2019>t enter the race for four months, was unmentioned. june 19, 2015 : early-state insiders lament trump<u+2019>s entry into the race, and most believe he won<u+2019>t drop out before the first debate. <u+201c>we are all part of the biggest reality show in history now with trump regrettably on center stage,<u+201d> said a new hampshire republican. <u+201c>even he is curious as to where this magical mystery tour ends.<u+201d> july 24, 2015 : the headline, roughly one year out from the party conventions, read: <u+201c>trump has peaked.<u+201d> three-quarters of gop insiders said the new york real-estate magnate had hit his ceiling after rising to the top of the republican field in the polls. one prescient insider was more circumspect. <u+201c>gop establishment (especially in early states) and some media are in a panic right now about trump, and are quick to develop a storyline that he can<u+2019>t last,<u+201d> said a new hampshire democrat. <u+201c>the truth is otherwise. the base loves him, he keeps showing top tier status nationally and in early states, he (like hillary) has 100 percent name id, and unlike all others, doesn<u+2019>t need either traditional donors or dark money ones. while there are some parallels to [ross] perot, this is a new phenomenon and existing precedent doesn<u+2019>t apply. who knows where this goes?<u+201d> august 7, 2015 : iowa and new hampshire insiders roundly panned trump<u+2019>s performance in the first televised gop primary debate. <u+201c>what was his worst response: third party, chauvinism, single-payer, or bankruptcies?<u+201d> railed a new hampshire republican. <u+201c>his limited number of supporters can<u+2019>t look the other way on this stuff forever.<u+201d> august 14, 2015 : a majority of iowa and new hampshire gop insiders said trump can<u+2019>t win their state. but some already viewed him as a real contender, even if they harbored doubts about his character. <u+201c>sadly, the establishment republican party refuses to embrace the understanding that people are truly fed up with politicians, and are so willing to send that message, that they will vote for a psychopath before they desire to vote for the establishment,<u+201d> a new hampshire republican said. september 17, 2015 : not one republican insider said trump won the second gop debate. but roughly three-in-10 democrats picked trump as the winner. <u+201c>all issues were 'trump said this about your position. how do you respond?<u+2019> trump had, once again, all the oxygen in room,<u+201d> a new hampshire democrat said. october 23, 2015 : eight-in-10 gop insiders said they believe trump<u+2019>s nomination is more likely than they thought the month prior. <u+201c>i can't even describe the lunacy of him as our nominee. but reason has not applied to date in this race, and my hopes are fleeting that it will ever surface,<u+201d> lamented an iowa republican. december 4, 2015 : nearly six-in-10 democratic insiders picked trump as the easiest republican to beat in the general election, with only 10 percent saying he<u+2019>d be the toughest to defeat. <u+201c>i'd like to believe that trump would be the easiest to defeat and hope that is not just wishful thinking,<u+201d> said a new hampshire democrat. january 1, 2016 : insiders offered their predictions for the new year, with many forecasting trump<u+2019>s demise. <u+201c>when trump begins losing contests <u+2014> starting with iowa <u+2014> he will begin to unravel quickly,<u+201d> an iowa republican suggested. but there was one accurate, if apolitical, prediction from a south carolina democrat: <u+201c>the cubs [will] win the world series.<u+201d> february 1, 2016 : gop insiders panned trump<u+2019>s decision to skip the final debate before the iowa caucuses <u+2013> but overreach on how much it would hurt his campaign. <u+201c>when donald trump fails to meet expectations and loses iowa on monday, his decision to skip the debate will immediately be the scapegoat,<u+201d> a south carolina republican predicted. <u+201c>like rick perry's <u+2018>oops<u+2019> moment in [2011], skipping the debate will be viewed in history as the singular event leading to the implosion of the trump campaign.<u+201d> february 4, 2016 : after losing in iowa, insiders expressed confidence that trump<u+2019>s lead in the new hampshire primary will hold up the following week. but they remained skeptical he<u+2019>d be the nominee. <u+201c>trump will be defeated in this process, but i don't think he will collapse in a week,<u+201d> said a new hampshire republican. <u+201c>the real race in new hampshire is for second, for the opportunity to consolidate support to stop trump or cruz after new hampshire.<u+201d> february 12, 2016 : despite winning new hampshire, only a minority of republican insiders said trump is on a glide path to the nomination. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s his to lose,<u+201d> a south carolina republican said. <u+201c>he and his team have been underestimated by all of the <u+2018>experts,<u+2019> and the angry segment of the party is pushing him forward.<u+201d> agriculture by helena bottemiller evich february 14, 2016 : a familiar theme: insiders panned trump<u+2019>s south carolina debate performance, in which he criticized former president george w. bush for the september 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. <u+201c>trump lost any chance to grow his base with his mean-spirited performance,<u+201d> a south carolina republican said. <u+201c>he may still receive a quarter of the vote on february 20, but he will fall far below polling expectations. trump's attack on president george w. bush was galactic-level stupid in south carolina.<u+201d> february 26, 2016 : after trump triumphs in south carolina and nevada, insiders finally saw him as the most likely nominee. <u+201c>replace trump with any other name and politician, and we wouldn't even be having this conversation,<u+201d> said a virginia republican. <u+201c>trump continues to be a heat-seeking missile in the gop, blowing up every obstacle in his way.<u+201d> march 25, 2016 : insiders said they won<u+2019>t accede to trump<u+2019>s nomination if he can<u+2019>t win a majority of pledged delegates. <u+201c>the gop would be crazy to aid in the hostile takeover of our party by a candidate who has never been able to espouse a single consistently conservative view,<u+201d> an iowa republican said. <u+201c>donald trump admires putin while attacking the last republican president. he doesn't deserve the nomination even if he were to win more than 1,237 delegates. hillary would slaughter him in the general election.<u+201d> april 8, 2016 : after ted cruz rattled off victories in a run of smaller, western states, nine-in-10 gop insiders predicted no candidate will earn a majority of delegates on the first ballot at the july national party convention. one iowa republican looked ahead at the calendar and saw pitfalls for trump. <u+201c>of course, he will run up the score in the northeast and have some april momentum, but there are good states ahead for cruz as well, such as indiana, nebraska, and possibly washington and oregon. he's also dominated the delegate selection process in a whole host of states where they are pledged,<u+201d> the iowa republican said. april 29, 2016 : after both clinton and trump carried a host of northeastern primaries, fewer than a quarter of gop insiders said trump could beat clinton in their states <u+2013> including three battleground states trump carried on tuesday. <u+201c>there is positively no way for trump to win in pennsylvania,<u+201d> said a republican from that state. <u+201c>trump cannot and will not carry ohio,<u+201d> a republican from that state insisted. <u+201c>he will do well in appalachia and in the mahoning valley, but he will get killed in the rest of the state. the danger for the gop is losing rob portman, which is a very real possibility under this matchup.<u+201d> added a florida republican, <u+201c>trump is grinding the gop to a stub. he couldn't find enough xenophobic, angry white floridians to beat hillary in florida if he tried.<u+201d> but not all gop insiders agreed. <u+201c>i think it has become clear that his message resonates with voters on both sides,<u+201d> said one florida republican who expected trump to beat clinton. <u+201c>he is less of a politician; hillary is clearly a politician, all you have to do is watch her nod her head and pick the right expression to use.<u+201d> may 6, 2016 : fewer than 40 percent of gop insiders said they would vote for trump in the general election after he eliminated cruz and ohio gov. john kasich in indiana. <u+201c>i can't look my kids in the eyes and tell them i voted for a foul-mouthed, lying cheater who bullies people and expect them to listen to anything i say about how to be a good human being,<u+201d> an iowa republican said. june 10, 2016 : nearly four-in-10 gop insiders said they would support an effort to derail trump<u+2019>s nomination at the convention. <u+201c>trump will not only lose but will cost us the senate, maybe the house, and who knows how much in the states,<u+201d> a new hampshire republican said. <u+201c>we shouldn't enter a suicide pact with him.<u+201d> and even those who wouldn<u+2019>t endorse such an effort were pessimistic about trump<u+2019>s chances. <u+201c>look, he won the nomination,<u+201d> said a virginia republican. <u+201c>let him have it. but republicans should have nothing to do with him or his campaign. walk away. let him lose, in spectacular fashion, on his own.<u+201d> june 24, 2016 : after trump -- by then the presumptive republican nominee -- reported spending just $6.7 million in may and having only $1.3 million left in the bank, gop insiders were demoralized. nearly half, 46 percent, said they were <u+201c>very alarmed.<u+201d> seventy-six percent of republicans said clinton would win their state, roughly unchanged from earlier in the year. said a wisconsin republican: <u+201c>trump hasn't done a thing. no outreach. no presence at the state gop convention. gov. scott walker has suggested that delegates vote their conscience. trump has hired a staffer in wisconsin. nobody knows him. question: who in politics thinks that a ground game, voter id and turnout just happens? answer: donald trump.<u+201d> <u+201c>he is committing down-ballot murders,<u+201d> said a florida republican. july 8, 2016 : a quarter of democratic insiders continue to fret about clinton<u+2019>s private email server even after fbi director james comey<u+2019>s public statement on the bureau<u+2019>s decision not to recommend charges against clinton. a majority of republicans, meanwhile, were convinced comey<u+2019>s stern rebuke -- in which he called clinton <u+201c>extremely careless<u+201d> for using a non-secure platform for her email -- would hurt her. <u+201c>every adjective [comey] used confirms the worst suspicions of those who were a wee bit squeamish about voting for her,<u+201d> said a new hampshire democrat. <u+201c>i can<u+2019>t think of a way it could have been worse, short of an actual recommendation to indict. in fact, because the case appeared to be laid out for prosecution of some nature, the fact that this wasn<u+2019>t recommended only seems to reinforce trump<u+2019>s charge of a <u+2018>rigged system.<u+2019><u+201d> july 22, 2016 : trump earned good marks from gop insiders for his speech at the cleveland convention, increasing optimism among some republicans. <u+201c>i felt trump gave a very good speech and struck on issues and policies that people wanted to hear about,<u+201d> said a colorado republican. <u+201c>his family and friends did an excellent job of showing the softer side of donald trump and gave america a good view of his family, which says a lot about him as a person. i think he is absolutely right <u+2014> this is a movement, not a <u+2018>normal<u+2019> campaign. people have had enough of tired politicians. i think they are going to give him the chance to run the country.<u+201d> august 5, 2016 : trump slipped in the polls after both conventions, and 70 percent of gop insiders said they wanted trump to withdraw as the party<u+2019>s nominee in favor of someone else. <u+201c>i<u+2019>d rather take our chances with nearly anyone else than continue with this certain loser who will likely cost the senate and much more,<u+201d> said a new hampshire republican. august 12, 2016 : as trump<u+2019>s poll numbers continue to suffer, gop insiders split evenly on whether trump still has a realistic path to 270 electoral votes. <u+201c>while it's true that previous candidates have come back from greater deficits to win, it won't happen in 2016. the electorate is far more base-driven, with fewer persuadables,<u+201d> said an iowa republican. <u+201c>trump is underperforming so comprehensively across states and demographics it would take video evidence of a smiling hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of <u+2018>death to america!<u+2019> but in 2016, stranger things have happened.<u+201d> august 19, 2016 : only 32 percent of gop insiders predicted changes to trump<u+2019>s campaign leadership <u+2014> including the appointments of campaign ceo steve bannon and campaign manager kellyanne conway <u+2014> will move the campaign in the right direction. <u+201c>installing a guy at the top whose motto is <u+2018>honey badger don't give a f---<u+2019> won<u+2019>t do much to reassure donors and establishment republicans,<u+201d> a north carolina republican said, referring to bannon. <u+201c>but we<u+2019>re way past that now. [bannon] is an unconventional pick <u+2014> but for this most unconventional of candidates, it makes sense.<u+201d> september 2, 2016 : two-thirds of republican insiders called trump<u+2019>s last-minute trip to mexico city a success. <u+201c>who would have predicted that the mexican president would make donald trump look presidential?<u+201d> an iowa republican teased. 2016 by alex isenstadt and blake hounshell september 16, 2016 : for the first time in the general election, the percentage of gop insiders who thought trump would win their state crossed the 50-percent mark. but democrats<u+2019> confidence remained high, with only minor erosion: 94 percent of democratic insiders said clinton would win, down from 100 percent. <u+201c>god, i hope so. who knows at this point?<u+201d> said an ohio democrat who picked clinton. <u+201c>i usually don't take stock in polls, but considering everything that trump has said and done, clinton should be up by double digits. this is just unreal.<u+201d> september 27, 2016 : ninety-nine percent of democratic insiders and 57 percent of republicans picked clinton as winner of the first debate on long island. but 43 percent of republicans saw it differently, scoring the debate for trump. <u+201c>hillary clinton sounded like every politician has sounded for the last half-century. donald trump did not,<u+201d> said an ohio republican. <u+201c>this year that may just be enough.<u+201d> october 8, 2016 : in this edition, insiders react to trump<u+2019>s <u+201c>access hollywood<u+201d> tape <u+2014> on which the now-president-elect is heard bragging about groping women <u+2014> which had roiled the race. seven-in-10 democrats called it a <u+201c>knockout punch<u+201d> to his candidacy, but only 46 percent of republicans agreed. <u+201c>on one hand, i don't know how these comments are a surprise to anyone. he's a slimy lothario. that [shouldn<u+2019>t] be new information,<u+201d> a wisconsin republican said. <u+201c>at the same time, it certainly doesn't disqualify him. they're men <u+2014> they think this way. it's gross, but it's reality.<u+201d> october 10, 2016 : three-quarters of gop insiders scored the second debate for trump, but few thought he could win. <u+201c>hillary took this debate for granted,<u+201d> an ohio republican said. <u+201c>trump was far more effective. but his performance will not move any voters in his favor. his ceiling and his floor is now around the same number. he cannot win.<u+201d> october 20, 2016 : gop insiders were split on who won the third debate, but only two-in-10 say trump was right to say he wouldn<u+2019>t necessary accept the outcome of the election. <u+201c>refusing to accept the outcome of a legitimate american election and refusing to commit to the peaceful transition of power is disqualifying,<u+201d> said a new hampshire republican. <u+201c>stunning.<u+201d> october 28, 2016 : republican insiders said the polls aren<u+2019>t capturing the full extent of trump<u+2019>s support. <u+201c>i'm not sure how big a factor it is, but there is definitely a <u+2018>bradley effect<u+2019> going on out there,<u+201d> said a virginia republican, referring to the african-american mayor of los angeles who led in polls but lost unexpectedly in the 1982 california gubernatorial race. <u+201c>i personally know many republicans that won't admit that they are voting for trump. i don't like admitting it myself. it won't matter if hillary is up more than 5 points, but we might be in for a surprise if hillary's lead is less than 5 points on election day.<u+201d> november 8, 2016 : democrats were supremely confident on the eve of the election. but 59 percent of gop insiders thought trump would win their state <u+2014> trump<u+2019>s high-water mark for the entire race. <u+201c>the comey letter was a game-changer for trump. he has also been extremely disciplined the last two weeks,<u+201d> said a florida republican. <u+201c>that has allowed traditional republicans to come home. he will run up the score in north florida and red strongholds like southwest florida.<u+201d> by anna palmer a wisconsin democrat summed up the entire race: <u+201c>she is up in the polls,<u+201d> the democrat said. <u+201c>but hey, i've been wrong about so many things this past year, so who knows?<u+201d> these were the members of the politico caucus: colorado: ryan call, laura carno, matt chandler, will coyne, adam eichberg, mark ferrandino, cole finegan, michael fortney, andrew freedman, ted harvey, craig hughes, owen loftus, pete maysmith, frank mcnulty, karen middleton, christopher murray, bj nikkel, josh penry, rick ridder, alan salazar, janice sinden, pat steadman, pat waak, steve welchert, taylor west, roxane white, rob witwer florida: fernand amandi, scott arceneaux, jp austin, tim baker, dennis k. baxley, slater bayliss, dave beattie, wayne bertsch, ron book, pamela burch fort, jose calderon, kevin cate, kelly cohen, gus corbella, brian crowley, elizabeth cuevas-neunder, justin day, judith diaz, nelson diaz, john dowless, ryan duffy, jessica ehrlich, joe falk, alia faraj-johnson, mark ferrulo, damien filer, marty fiorentino, rich heffley, nick iarossi, david johnson, eric johnson, marian johnson, eric jotkoff, chris korge, jackie lee, susan macmanus, beth matuga, fred menachem, jon mills, joe mobley, ben pollara, andrea reilly, steve schale, april schiff, max steele, roger stone, richard swann, kevin sweeny, christian ulvert, steve vancore, ashley walker, andrew weinstein, andrew wiggins, ryan wiggins, rick wilson iowa: tim albrecht, brad anderson, rob barron, jeff boeyink, bonnie campbell, dave caris, sam clovis, jerry crawford, sara craig, john davis, steve deace, john deeth, derek eadon, ed failor jr., karen fesler, david fischer, ben foecke, doug gross, steve grubbs, tim hagle, bob haus, joe henry, drew ivers, jill june, lori jungling, jeff kaufmann, brian kennedy, jake ketzner, david kochel, chris larimer, chuck larson, jill latham, jeff link, dave loebsack, mark lucas, liz mathis, jan michelson, chad olsen, david oman, matt paul, marlys popma, troy price, christopher rants, kim reem, craig robinson, sam roecker, david roederer, nick ryan, tamara scott, joni scotter, karen slifka, john smith, aj spiker, norm sterzenbach, john stineman, matt strawn, charlie szold, phil valenziano, jessica vanden berg, nate willems, eric woolson, grant young michigan: jill alper, saul anuzis, andrea bitely, lori carpentier, howard edelson, jordan gehrke, steve hood, darwin jiles jr., joe lehman, dennis lennox, katie packer, ronna romney mcdaniel, john truscott, stephanie white, john yob nevada: mac abrams, greg bailor, barbara buckley, yvanna cancela, bob cavazos, linda cavazos, jim degraffenreid, andrew diss, peter ernaut, ryan erwin, chip evans, jay gerstema, oscar goodman, ryan hamilton, dan hart, pat hickey, zach hudson, jeremy hughes, megan jones, lindsey jydstrup, adam khan, peter koltak, roberta lange, sam liberman, laura martin, michael mcdonald, chuck muth, erven nelson, kristen orthman, neal patel, nick phillips, jon ralston, andres ramires, emmy ruiz, scott scheid, mike slanker, james smack, paul smith, jack st. martin, mari st. martin, daniel stewart, brendan summers, riley sutton, robert uithoven, michelle white, ed williams, heidi wixom new hampshire: charlie arlinghaus, arnie arnesen, patrick arnold, rich ashooh, dean barker, juliana bergeron, d.j. bettencourt, michael biundo, ray buckley, peter burling, jamie burnett, debby butler, dave carney, jackie cilley, catherine corkery, fergus cullen, lou d<u+2019>allesandro, james demers, mike dennehy, sean downey, steve duprey, joann fenton, jennifer frizzell, martha fuller clark, amanda grady sexton, jack heath, gary hirshberg, jennifer horn, peter kavanaugh, joe keefe, rich killion, harrell kirstein, sylvia larsen, joel maiola, kate malloy corriveau, maureen manning, steve marchand, tory mazzola, jim merrill, jayne millerick, claira monier, greg moore, matt mowers, terie norelli, chris pappas, liz purdy, tom rath, colin reed, jim rubens, andy sanborn, dante scala, william shaheen, stefany shaheen, carol shea-porter, terry shumaker, andy smith, craig stevens, kathy sullivan, chris sununu, james sununu, jay surdukowski, donna sytek, kari thurman, colin van ostern, deb vanderbeek, mike vlacich, ryan williams north carolina: don davis, francis x. de luca, anita earls, jonathan felts, tami l. fitzgerald, dylan frick, taylor griffin, robin hayes, morgan jackson, patsy keever, theresa kostrzewa, michael luethy, ray martin, thomas mills, melissa l. reed, chris sgro, paul shumaker, dee stewart, brad thompson, bruce thompson, charlie wallin, doug wilson ohio: jerry austin, greg beswick, matt borges, erica bruton, tim burke, janet carson, jai chabria, martha clark, bob clegg, damareo cooper, jo ann davidson, michael dawson, bill demora, cindy demse, kathy dicristofaro, katie eagan, michael gonidakis, wes goodman, joe hallett, ian james, melissa klide hedden, david leland, nick martin, rhine mclin, david pepper, molly shack, mark r. weaver pennsylvania: chris borick, larry ceisler, valentino digiorgio, jason ercole, dan fee, charlie gerow, marcel groen, leslie gromis baker, mark harris, nan mclaughlin, aubrey montgomery, christopher nicholas, nachama soloveichik, david sosar, todd stephens, doc sweitzer, david thornburgh, ray zaborney south carolina: andrew collins, antjuan seawright, barry wynn, bob mcalister, boyd brown, brady quirk-garvan, bruce haynes, catherine templeton, chad connelly, chip felkel, cindy costa, clay middleton, david wilkins, dick harpootlian, donna hicks, drea byars, ed mcmullen, elizabeth colbert-busch, ellen weaver, erin mckee, gary r. smith, glenn mccall, inez tenenbaum, isaiah nelson, jaime r. harrison, james smith, jason perkey, jay w. ragley, jim hodges, jimmy williams, joe erwin, joel sawyer, john brisini, kevin bishop, kim wellman, laurin manning, le frye, luke byars, matt moore, mikee johnson, morgan allison, phil noble, scott farmer, tony denny, trey walker, tyler jones, walter whetsell, warren tompkins, will folks virginia: ray allen, sandra brandt, marc k. broklawski, patsy brown, janet carver, john cosgrove, brian coy, doris crouse-mays, tom davis, julie dime, abbi easter, mike farris, john findlay, joe fitzgerald, sean harrison, margo horner, robert hurt, gaylene kanoyton, chris lacivita, sue langley, frank leone, robert g. marshall, tucker martin, ed matricardi, susan j. rowland, peter snyder, susan swecker, jo thoburn wisconsin: meg andrietsch, mary arnold, kevin barthel, mike basford, rebecca bonesteel, barry burden, terri burl, jim camery, patrick guarasci, robert hansen, gary hawley, marian krumberger, emily nehring, jason rae, brandon scholz, john zapfel kristen hayford contributed to this report. by bill scher by thomas wright by joshua zeitz by jack shafer
what the insiders got wrong about 2016 - politico
steven shepard helena bottemiller evich alex isenstadt blake hounshell anna palmer jack shafer