north carolina could decide both the presidency and control of the senate, so it<u+2019>s a good thing that it counts its vote quickly on election night. it might need to count all of them before we know the results up and down the ballot. it<u+2019>s that close. hillary clinton and donald j. trump are tied in the state, 44 percent to 44 percent, in the final new york times upshot/siena college survey released monday. the republican senator richard burr narrowly leads his democratic challenger, deborah ross, 46 percent to 45 percent. attorney general roy cooper, the democrat running for governor, leads by just one point, 47-46, over gov. pat mccrory, a republican. mr. trump has few credible paths to the presidency without north carolina's 15 electoral votes. mrs. clinton would very likely win the presidency if she carried north carolina, but it is not part of her easiest path to victory. (that path would be the states carried by john kerry in 2004, along with new mexico, colorado, virginia and nevada.) it's a big improvement for mr. trump since the last upshot/siena poll , when mrs. clinton led by seven percentage points. that poll was taken immediately after the final presidential debate and before the f.b.i. director james comey sent his letter to congress about newly discovered emails relating to hillary clinton. since then, the race has tightened nationwide, and in north carolina as well. mr. trump has consolidated the support of many republican and white voters. he now has 44 percent of the vote, up from 39 percent after the third debate. some of the new supporters were probably undecided, but others may have been supporters of the libertarian candidate, gary johnson. mr. johnson has only 3 percent of the vote, down from 8 percent in our last poll and 11 percent in our first poll of north carolina in september. mr. trump has the support of 59 percent of white voters, up from 53 percent in our last poll. nearly 90 percent of republicans back him as well, up from just 80 percent after the final debate. to win, all three republicans on the ballot will need a strong showing on election day. more than three million north carolinians have cast their ballots, about two-thirds of the likely electorate. mrs. clinton leads among voters who have already cast their ballot by a nine-point margin, 49 percent to 40 percent. but mr. trump leads among those yet to vote by 17 points, 52 percent to 35 percent. mr. trump<u+2019>s big advantage on election day isn<u+2019>t because black voters will represent a lower share of the remaining vote. black voters are expected to represent 21 percent of the election day vote, about the same as the 22 percent in the early voting. black voters who haven<u+2019>t voted early were nearly as likely as white voters to say they would vote on tuesday, though the sample was fairly small. over all, black voters seem to represent 21.7 percent of the electorate in the state. whether that<u+2019>s a strong or a weak turnout depends on perspective: it<u+2019>s weaker than 2012, when black voters represented 23 percent of the electorate; it<u+2019>s similar to 2008, when black voters represented 22.2 percent of the electorate; it<u+2019>s far higher than 2004, when black voters were just 18.6 percent of north carolina voters. here<u+2019>s what<u+2019>s clear: in a race as close as this, even a modest drop-off in black turnout could represent mrs. clinton<u+2019>s margin of defeat. but mr. trump leads the projected election day vote primarily because he<u+2019>s much stronger among whites who have not yet voted than among those who already have. it<u+2019>s not just about their demographic characteristics, either: a disproportionate share of mrs. clinton<u+2019>s supporters have already voted. mrs. clinton, for instance, leads by four points among unaffiliated voters who have already cast their ballots. but she trails by eight points among those who have not yet cast their ballots. she has only a 50-37 percent lead among white democrats yet to vote. she has a huge lead, 63 percent to 26 percent, among the 18-to-34-year-old voters who have already cast their ballots. she has just a 46-43 lead among those who have not. mr. trump even leads among well-educated white voters, who backed mrs. clinton in our first two polls of the state. it<u+2019>s a similar story: mr. trump now holds the support of about half of white voters with a college degree, while mrs. clinton remains roughly unchanged at 41 percent. it<u+2019>s still much weaker than mitt romney<u+2019>s performance four years ago, but it could be just enough for him to win. the upshot provides news, analysis and graphics about politics, policy and everyday life. follow us on facebook and twitter . sign up for our newsletter. a version of this article appears in print on november 8, 2016, on page p3 of the new york edition with the headline: the word from north carolina: it<u+2019>s close. order reprints | today's paper | subscribe
trump and clinton tied in final upshot poll of north carolina
nate cohn