the new york state senate chambers. | ap photo/tim roske by bill mahoney 10/13/16 05:32 am edt albany <u+2014> republicans continue to have a financial advantage in their battle to maintain control of the senate this year, with a combined $13.5 million in their party and candidates<u+2019> committees, compared with $4.4 million for democrats. they also raised and spent more in the filing periods that cover transactions from july 12 to oct. 3, according to disclosure reports submitted to the state board of elections. story continued below the senate republican campaign committee and gop candidates brought in $4.3 million and spent $7.1 million. the democratic senate campaign committee and its candidates raised $2.9 million and spent $4.1 million. the independent democratic conference received $1.1 million, spent $1.9 million and has $3 million on hand. this gop financial edge extends to some of the state<u+2019>s most-competitive races. based on enrollment advantages, recent trends and past results, there are 22 seats are all but guaranteed to go to the democrats. the same number will almost certainly go to the gop, and the idc has six candidates who should win. an additional six seats clearly lean one way; republicans likely have an advantage in five of these. in these districts, the gop currently has $873,839 on hand compared to $664,726 for the democrats. in the seven seats that are likely to be the state<u+2019>s most competitive, republicans outraised democrats $827,409 to $750,330 since mid-july, outspent them $1.9 million to $1.5 million, and have $1.4 million on hand to democrats<u+2019> $766,399. in order to win a majority without the help of the idc next year, democrats would need to sweep these seven seats, defend sen. george latimer<u+2019>s westchester district, and win at least two upsets. here<u+2019>s a complete breakdown of where the financial picture stands in each of the state<u+2019>s districts and a more detailed look at the most competitive ones: (note: if you<u+2019>re reading this via email, click the link below to see the embedded spreadsheet). clearly leans one way, but upset feasible sd-58: leslie danks burke, d ($222,950); tom o<u+2019>mara, r ($257,536) (the numbers in parentheses throughout this story represent the money each candidate had in the bank as of oct. 3) outside spending for danks burke: none. for o<u+2019>mara: new york league of conservation voters. democrats are rarely competitive in the southern tier and finger lakes district: since at least 1998, no republican has won by fewer than 17 points. but danks burke has succeeded in making it interesting largely by virtue of her aggressive fundraising: over the past 16 months , she<u+2019>s brought in $539,174 to o<u+2019>mara<u+2019>s $223,756. despite this, neither of the party committees has spent any money on the race yet, suggesting that while it might have the potential for an upset, there aren<u+2019>t any internal records that suggest it<u+2019>s gotten too close as of yet. sd-5: james gaughran, d ($37,876); carl marcellino, r ($209,637) outside spending for gaughran: democratic senate campaign committee, communication workers of america. for marcellino: senate republican campaign committee, new yorkers for a balanced albany , new york league of conservation voters, real estate board of new york's jobs for new york committee. like o<u+2019>mara, marcellino represents a district that has a long history of being solidly republican . the northeastern nassau and northwestern suffolk seat has gone with the gop in every election since world war ii, and marcellino has beaten each of his past four opponents by at least 19 points. democrats think they have a chance there this year, however. the campaign of suffolk county water authority chair gaughran is one of the only four races the dscc has spent money on so far, and the srcc has recently begun to spend on marcellino<u+2019>s behalf. the incumbent has spent $97,554 since mid-july, the most he<u+2019>s spent in the comparable period since 2004. sd-3: john devito, d ($53,491); tom croci, r ($116,358) sd-8: john brooks, d ($0); michael venditto, r ($95,244) outside spending: none neither of these long island races has attracted much attention or outside money. both freshman republicans are being challenged by individuals who haven<u+2019>t previously held elected office <u+2014> brooks is an insurance executive, and devito is a 25-year-old law student. but if the atmosphere created the presidential race leads to a chaotic year for down-ballot gop candidates, they<u+2019>re both among the candidates who could go down in surprise upsets. venditto received less than 60 percent of the vote in his first run, despite facing a challenger who was accused of stealing $2 million from his law firm six weeks before the election and has since been sent to prison. he<u+2019>s now running in a presidential year, which typically produces better democratic turnout numbers, and a newsday columnist recently argued that voters might take out some of their anger for financial woes in oyster bay, where his father is the mayor, on a candidate with the same last name. brooks, however, hasn<u+2019>t reported raising any money yet, so it<u+2019>s highly questionable whether he can do enough to capitalize on this. croci won with 58 percent of the vote two years ago against a candidate who was more well-funded and well-known than his current foe. but his district elected a democrat when a presidential election had a big impact on down-ballot races in 2008, and thus shouldn<u+2019>t be completely taken off the table. sd-37: george latimer, d ($301,124 ); julie killian, r ($21,277) sd-40: ali boak, d ($49,286); terrence murphy, r ($173,968) outside spending for latimer: none. for killian: senate republican campaign committee. for boak: none. for murphy: senate republican campaign committee, new yorkers for a balanced albany, rebny's jobs for new york committee. both of these lower hudson valley districts have electorates that could feasibly side with either major party, though the current incumbents and their predecessors have repeatedly withstood serious competition over the years. democrats have controlled latimer<u+2019>s seat for over three decades, and republicans have held murphy<u+2019>s for far longer than that. supporters of the challengers are optimistic that this time will be different. republicans have argued that killian is the strongest candidate latimer has ever had to face, and boak has argued that the unique dynamics of the presidential election (both hillary clinton and regular donald trump critic george pataki live in the district) will help her win. so far, both the republicans have had financial advantages largely due to sources other than contributions. murphy has brought in $142,000 from the srcc in recent months, and killian has loaned $288,220 to her campaign since april. latimer does have some outside help coming soon: gov. andrew cuomo will attend a fundraiser for him on oct. 30. highly competitive races sd-60: amber small, d ($24,594); chris jacobs, r ($243,512) outside spending for small: new york state united teachers, communication workers of america. for jacobs: senate republican campaign committee, rebny's jobs for new york committee, new yorkers for a balanced albany, campaign for a fair new york democrats always have a good chance of being competitive in this buffalo-area senate district, where they have an enrollment advantage of nearly two-to-one. but the district<u+2019>s drawn to benefit the gop, and right-leaning candidates received 58 percent of the vote in 2012 and 67 percent in 2014. most of the early signs were favorable for jacobs, erie county<u+2019>s clerk. he<u+2019>s enjoyed large financial advantages and was able to split the ticket with another republican (a scenario that led to a democratic victory by outgoing senator marc panepinto in 2014). but on tuesday, the new york state united teachers got involved in the race by spending $279,921 on community organizer small<u+2019>s behalf. the aid by the state<u+2019>s largest democratic-leaning spender suggests she might not be dramatically outspent in the campaign<u+2019>s final moth. sd-9: todd kaminsky, d ($377,900); chris mcgrath, r ($62,604) outside spending for kaminsky: democratic senate campaign committee. for mcgrath: senate republican campaign committee since mcgrath lost a special election to kaminksy in april, republicans have repeatedly argued that the rematch in november will produce a different result. the gop had held the seat from 1985 through last december, and polls taken in advance of the vote this spring showed mcgrath performing strongly among independents, who were more likely to remain home than their major-party neighbors for a vote that took place the same day as the presidential primary. in financial terms, at least, early indicators about the race have been completely lopsided in favor of the democrat. kaminsky has turned into one of the state<u+2019>s most aggressive fundraisers, frequently posting numbers surpassed only by gov. andrew cuomo and attorney general eric schneiderman. mcgrath<u+2019>s fundraising has been anemic: he<u+2019>s brought in only $45,790 since the special, not even a twelfth of kaminsky<u+2019>s total. sd-6: ryan cronin, d ($12,236); kemp hannon, r ($534,563) sd-39: chris eachus, d ($33,188); bill larkin, r ($206,561) outside spending for cronin: democratic senate campaign committee, communication workers of america. for hannon: senate republican campaign committee, gnyha ventures, new yorkers for a balanced albany, rebny's jobs for new york committee, new york league of conservation voters. for eachus: new york state united teachers. for larkin: senate republican campaign committee, new yorkers for a balanced albany, rebny's jobs for new york committee. garden city<u+2019>s hannon and orange county<u+2019>s larkin are among albany<u+2019>s longest-tenured lawmakers, having served in the legislature for a combined 78 years. democrats view them as vulnerable. both of their districts have shifted over the past decade from having significant gop enrollment advantages to large democratic ones. and this year<u+2019>s races are rematches of ones from 2012, when hannon beat cronin by four points and larkin bested eachus by five. both of the incumbents have put up better fundraising numbers than their foes in recent months. hannon, the top republican on the senate<u+2019>s health committee since 1995, has notably become the first beneficiary of an independent expenditure committee with ties to the greater new york hospital association. sd-41: terry gipson, d ($137,085); sue serino, r ($96,320) sd-46: sara niccoli, d ($128,959); george amedore, r ($186,272) outside spending for gipson: none. for serino: senate republican campaign committee, new yorkers for a balanced albany, rebny's jobs for new york committee for niccoli: none. for amedore: senate republican campaign committee, new yorkers for a balanced albany, real estate board of new york. both of these upper hudson valley seats were won by democrats in the races held concurrent with the 2012 presidential election and by republicans in 2014. (gipson, however, won four years ago partially by virtue of a conservative candidate splitting the vote with the republican.) democratic hopes that this region would shift their way in presidential years with high turnout were dealt a small blow when a strong showing by bernie sanders in the primary suggested voters weren<u+2019>t terribly enthusiastic about hillary clinton, but the nominee currently appears to be polling well in the region and sanders<u+2019> supporters have organized multiple efforts to help down-ballot candidates. and perhaps more importantly, the congressional race between zephyr teachout and john faso in an overlapping district has turned out to be one of the most competitive races in the country. teachout has political views that could feasibly inspire some sanders backers to show up to the polls, and the vermont senator has repeatedly helped her campaign. if voters are partially driven by teachout<u+2019>s candidacy, that could be good news for the gipson and niccolli. in october, 2014 , a siena poll found that republican u.s. representative chris gibson had a 13-point lead in the portion of the district containing voters in ulster (the largest source of voters in sd-46) and dutchess (which makes up most of sd-41). a recent poll found teachout up by 15 in those two counties, a 28-point swing toward the democrats. sd-7: adam haber, d ($52,438); elaine phillips, r ($119,382) outside spending for haber: democratic senate campaign committee, new york state united teachers. for phillips: senate republican campaign committee, rebny's jobs for new york committee, new yorkers for a balanced albany. the north hempstead-area race between real estate banker haber and flower hill mayor phillips stands a good chance of being the state<u+2019>s closest this year. it was represented by democrat craig johnson from 2007 until he was ousted by 451 votes by jack martins in 2010. martins is departing the senate to run for congress, so there<u+2019>s an opening in a general election for the first time in over a half century. it<u+2019>s a priority for both parties, with the dscc and srcc each making more in independent expenditures on this race than any other in the state. clarification: the original version of this article referred simply to the real estate board of new york as an outside spending entity, rather than to rebny's jobs for new york committee. a free synopsis of our pro morning email about new york education policy and politics a free synopsis of our pro morning email about new york energy policy and politics a free synopsis of our pro morning email about new york health care policy and politics a free synopsis of our pro morning email about new york real estate policy and politics our morning email with must-read analysis and breaking news on state news and politics a morning email with must-read analysis and breaking news on city news and politics. a weekly round-up of legislation in city council for politics and policy professionals. a reported briefing on money in politics, executive moves, and trends in communications, lobbying and consulting. our twice-a-week digest of news on courts and the law in new york azi paybarah and jimmy vielkind's must-read briefing informing the daily conversation among knowledgeable new yorkers.
senate gop outspends, outraises democrats since july
bill mahoney