investors in asia are taking a cautious stance ahead of tuesday<u+2019>s u.s. presidential election , with many saying they are both uncertain about the outcome and unclear about the intentions of both major-party candidates. while the latest polls show a lead for hillary clinton at the end of a long and bitter campaign, the contest between the democratic party nominee and republican rival donald trump appears to have tightened in the past few days . the federal bureau of investigation<u+2019>s decision not to recommend charges against mrs. clinton following its latest review of her use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state have sent the u.s. dollar and stock markets in asia higher this week. some investors expect that will continue if mrs. clinton wins. results are due wednesday morning in asia, when markets regionwide will be open for business. a win for mr. trump , however, would likely give markets a jolt, though few investors are confident about how big that would be. <u+201c>[the] u.s. dollar<u+2019>s direction is a bit unclear under a trump victory,<u+201d> said ashley perrott, head of pan-asia fixed income at ubs asset management in singapore. <u+201c>normally, the dollar would rally in a risk-averse kind of period. when the risk event is centered on the u.s., does the dollar rally or weaken?<u+201d> others say they are worried that a victory for mr. trump could wipe out this year<u+2019>s stock-market gains. <u+201c>we<u+2019>ve taken exposure down over the last two weeks,<u+201d> said jonathan garrick, who runs hong kong-based hedge fund neutron asia. he added that a likely interest-rate increase from the u.s. federal reserve in december could further unsettle markets. if mr. trump wins, the japanese yen could benefit, analysts say, as it is traditionally a refuge for investors in uncertain times. any appreciation in the yen would likely hurt japan<u+2019>s stock market, which is weighted toward exporting companies, said hirao matsuura, an equities analyst at nomura securities. a strong yen reduces the competitiveness of japan<u+2019>s exports. and while a trump victory would cause market uncertainty, investors aren<u+2019>t sure what the fallout from a clinton victory would look like. investors in japan say they were particularly frustrated with the televised presidential debates, which are usually heavily parsed for clues about the candidates<u+2019> policy stances. <u+201c>there has been less focus on policies so we don<u+2019>t yet see the whole picture of where they will stand,<u+201d> said takashi hiroki, chief strategist at brokerage monex securities in tokyo. still, mr. hiroki said he expects shares of exporting companies to be hurt in the short term no matter who wins, since both candidates have taken <u+201c>different yet similar<u+201d> positions on trade. beneficiaries could include companies related to infrastructure, such komatsu ltd. , as both candidates have said they would invest more in big domestic projects. emerging-market bond investors say they are reducing some of their riskier positions, in an effort to head into election day without large, one-way bets in their portfolio. they also say they are ready to snap up bonds that they find fundamentally attractive if the results prompt a steep pullback in prices. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s really a view to getting invested at better levels,<u+201d> said mark baker, a fixed-income portfolio manager for emerging markets at standard life investments in hong kong. no matter who wins, there could be uncertainty about foreign policy and trade, which could affect asian manufacturers and exporting countries such as south korea and taiwan. while mr. trump has pledged higher tariffs, mrs. clinton has also struck a hawkish note by opposing the trans-pacific partnership, a trade agreement for a group of pacific rim nations in the americas, asia and oceania. prashant singh, a singapore-based senior portfolio manager at neuberger berman, said until recently, he was betting on a decline in the korean won. but he chose not to hang on to that position since the heavily traded currency could swing wildly as results start rolling in during asian trading hours. standard life<u+2019>s mr. baker said he is also betting on a decline in the chinese yuan against a basket of currencies, including the u.s. dollar, japanese yen and euro. he said he started betting against the yuan last month, in part because of the election risk. mr. trump has vowed to declare china a currency manipulator if elected and crack down on what he calls unfair trade practices. <u+201c>china stands to suffer from a trump victory if his rhetoric around trade is to be believed,<u+201d> he said. <u+2014>rachel rosenthal, mia lamar and ese erheriene contributed to this article. write to saumya vaishampayan at saumya.vaishampayan@wsj.com
hillary clinton and donald trump keep asia markets guessing  - wsj
suryatapa bhattacharya saumya vaishampayan