mexico city <u+2014> for mexico , the nightmare came true. perhaps no country aside from the united states itself had as much at stake in the american presidential election as mexico did. then, early on wednesday, it watched as donald j. trump became the next american president: a man whose central campaign promises included building a wall between the two countries, upending decades-old trade deals and deporting millions of mexican immigrants. the peso suffered its largest drop in nearly 20 years, and for many, the election set back years of carefully cultivated efforts to improve the cross-border relationship , one that has been historically fraught. the outcome promises a turbulent financial future for mexico, which relies on america as an economic lifeline, both in terms of trade and remittances. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s an unmitigated disaster,<u+201d> said jorge casta<u+00f1>eda, a former foreign minister of mexico and a professor of politics and latin american studies at new york university. <u+201c>there are very few tools to fix the relationship.<u+201d> for months, mexico watched the campaign with a mix of fear and bemusement , forced to stare down a raw undercurrent of american vitriol unleashed by mr. trump<u+2019>s candidacy. now, the election seems a harbinger of hard days to come for the country, its economy, migration and even its state of mind. <u+201c>this election reminded us of the bad image mexico has in the u.s.,<u+201d> said jes<u+00fa>s silva-herzog, a columnist and professor at the monterrey institute of technology and higher education in mexico. <u+201c>it has also served as a mirror in which we have painfully seen our reflection.<u+201d> <u+201c>we will not have to wait for the presidential baton to be passed to feel the devastating effects, not only in economic terms, but also the existential crisis it will cause,<u+201d> he added. mr. trump<u+2019>s vow to renegotiate the north american free trade agreement could greatly affect canada, too. as a result of the pact, much of canada<u+2019>s industry produces for export. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re going to get sideswiped by some of this stuff,<u+201d> said mark warner, a trade lawyer in toronto. in particular, he said, he expects mr. trump to promote <u+201c>buy america<u+201d> clauses in government infrastructure projects that would shut out canadian companies <u+2014> a violation of nafta. but for canada and mexico, the election was a study in contrasts. canadians reacted to mr. trump<u+2019>s election with concern, even anxiety, but also a whiff of pride. move-to-canada memes started spreading as mr. trump looked increasingly likely to win florida: <u+201c>election night starter kit,<u+201d> read a post on instagram, above photos of united states passports and an air canada plane. another post depicted a machine-gun-toting man riding a moose, with the words <u+201c>canadian border patrol watching for illegal americans.<u+201d> later on tuesday night, the website of canada<u+2019>s immigration department crashed, fueling speculation that it had been overloaded by americans looking for a new country to call home. lisa filipps, a spokeswoman for citizenship and immigration canada, said the site had failed <u+201c>as a result of a significant increase in the volume of traffic.<u+201d> in mexico city, the vote felt like something else entirely: a validation of mr. trump<u+2019>s hostile remarks about mexican immigrants, and a broad statement of disrespect. <u+201c>imagine what the u.s. will look like from now,<u+201d> said angelina gonz<u+00e1>lez, who sells cosmetics in mexico city. <u+201c>a big wave of discrimination is coming.<u+201d> among journalists from horizontal , a cultural and political online magazine in mexico city, spirits were low, and confusion reigned. antonio mart<u+00ed>nez vel<u+00e1>zquez, a co-founder, reflected on the outcome with shock and a deep sense of uncertainty. <u+201c>this moment forces the world, including mexico, to rethink its relationship with the u.s.,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>this moment, which really is the end of an era, the end of the u.s. hegemony, is also the beginning of a new chapter for us in mexico.<u+201d> mr. trump has been among the most powerful forces at play in mexico this year, infuriating citizens of all stripes and even government officials with his anti-mexican campaign. anger surged when the mexican president, enrique pe<u+00f1>a nieto, invited mr. trump to visit mexico , an offer the candidate accepted. weeks of vitriol and betrayal ensued , with many mexicans denouncing mr. pe<u+00f1>a nieto<u+2019>s invitation as a needless capitulation from the leader of an insulted nation. now, it turns out mr. pe<u+00f1>a nieto was right: mr. trump was not simply a candidate who could be ignored. in a series of twitter posts on wednesday morning, mr. pe<u+00f1>a nieto congratulated <u+201c>the people of the united states for their electoral process<u+201d> and reiterated his willingness to work with mr. trump <u+201c>in favor of the bilateral relationship.<u+201d> <u+201c>mexico and the u.s.a. are friends, partners and allies, who must continue collaborating for the competitiveness and development of north america,<u+201d> he wrote. <u+201c>i trust that mexico and the united states will continue to strengthen their bonds of cooperation and mutual respect.<u+201d> mr. trump has promised to build a wall between the two countries and make mexico pay for it. but foreign minister claudia ruiz massieu rejected that notion in a television interview on wednesday morning. <u+201c>paying for a wall is out of our vision,<u+201d> she said. <u+201c>the vision that we have is a vision of integration, of how mexico and the united states working together are more competitive.<u+201d> in practical terms, most experts suspect, the election will reverberate most profoundly through the economy. the united states and mexico are deeply integrated in matters of economics, demographics, culture and security, stitched together by the movement of people, goods and money across a 2,000-mile border. as one goes, so goes the other. mexico is america<u+2019>s third-largest trading partner, after canada and china, with about $531 billion in two-way trade in 2015. the countries are interdependent, with american goods and parts shipped to mexican factories whose products are shipped back into the united states, and vice versa. millions of american jobs are directly tied to trade with mexico. mr. trump argued that mexico was the outsize beneficiary of nafta, while american workers suffered job losses and stagnant wages, an argument that played well with segments of the american electorate. while mexico is the second-largest destination for american goods, giving it some leverage in responding to actions taken by mr. trump, the countries have <u+201c>a very asymmetrical relationship,<u+201d> mr. casta<u+00f1>eda said, meaning that in the end, there is little mexico can do to apply pressure. many mexicans may lose their jobs. all will suffer from a rapid depreciation of the peso. but an economic crisis could also turn into a migration crisis <u+2014> exactly what mr. trump has campaigned for months to halt. about 35 million mexican citizens and mexican-americans live in the united states, and the vast majority are either american citizens or legal residents. illegal immigration from mexico has fallen, and the pew research center estimates that more mexicans are returning to mexico than are migrating to the united states. but a sudden economic shock could send mexicans once more to the united states to seek work. <u+201c>you generate an economic crisis in mexico, and all of those gains we have seen in terms of zero migration go down the tubes,<u+201d> said agust<u+00ed>n barrios g<u+00f3>mez, a former congressman in mexico. not everyone felt entirely dour about the election results. if there was a silver lining, some said it was that the threat from the outside would force mexicans to come together. <u+201c>i believe having a strong, negative factor right across the border will bring the mexicans together to work harder, which will be a positive effect,<u+201d> said arturo delgado, the retired director of a technical school. some were confident that mr. trump<u+2019>s hostile talk as a candidate would ebb when he took office. <u+201c>i don<u+2019>t see a problem with trade or immigration,<u+201d> said raymundo riva palacio, a political analyst and columnist. on trade, mr. riva palacio argued that business groups and governors who supported mr. trump, including gov. greg abbott of texas, would impress upon him the importance of remaining in nafta. as for the wall mr. trump has vowed to build, <u+201c>it will be very difficult for donald trump to obtain the budget,<u+201d> he said. he argued that, ultimately, economics would temper mr. trump<u+2019>s policies toward mexico. but he added that with the house of representatives and the senate remaining under republican control , mr. trump<u+2019>s victory signaled an ideological realignment that had not occurred in the united states since the election of president ronald reagan. <u+201c>the problem isn<u+2019>t for mexico,<u+201d> mr. riva palacio said. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s for the united states.<u+201d> reporting was contributed by elisabeth malkin from mexico city, ian austen from ottawa, dan levin from new york, and craig s. smith from stephenville, newfoundland. a version of this article appears in print on november 10, 2016, on page p18 of the new york edition with the headline: mexico, with big stake in vote, now braces for the fallout. order reprints | today's paper | subscribe
mexico braces for the fallout of a trump presidency
azam ahmed kirk semple paulina villegas