how did donald j. trump win the presidency? nearly every forecast model predicted that hillary clinton would be the next president of the united states. we were in disbelief <u+2014> sort of. during elections, most public opinion surveys try to identify likely voters and use them to predict the winner. working with our students at cornell university, we took a different approach by focusing on respondents who said they did not intend to vote for mrs. clinton or mr. trump. in our survey, this was a sizable group <u+2014> more than 20 percent of the public <u+2014> and our analysis indicated that they leaned toward mr. trump . whether undecided or unwilling to openly express their support, this group was hidden to pollsters focusing on likely voters. we had found hidden trump supporters , but we did not expect them to swing the election. after all, these respondents were unwilling to directly express their support for mr. trump and were the most likely to indicate that if both candidates had flaws, it was better not to vote. but vote they did. this seems the most plausible explanation for why the near unanimous predictions of a clinton victory proved wrong. who then were these hidden trump supporters? to find out, we returned to our data (a nationally representative sample of 1,461 adults surveyed in october) to examine the opinions and policy preferences of four distinct groups: those who indicated a trump vote, those who indicated a clinton vote, hidden trump supporters and hidden clinton supporters. to identify hidden supporters, we relied on responses to whether they considered mr. trump or mrs. clinton <u+201c>more truthful.<u+201d> for those who expressed the intention to vote for mr. trump or mrs. clinton, this question predicted vote choice with 97.5 percent accuracy. this left us confident that the candidate the respondents deemed more truthful was the one whom they would vote for. when we analyzed the opinions of hidden and committed supporters, a remarkable pattern emerged. in all cases, hidden trump supporters were more moderate than those who indicated they would vote for mr. trump. not only were these hidden trump supporters less than half as likely as committed trump supporters to identify as political conservatives, but the proportion of respondents identifying as moderates was larger among hidden trump supporters than any other group. the relatively moderate stance of hidden trump supporters also shows up in the survey questions posed by our students. for example, when asked whether they trusted the police to do what was right for their community, hidden trump supporters said <u+201c>definitely<u+201d> at rates much closer to clinton supporters than to committed trump supporters (a 6 percent difference versus a 20 percent difference). similarly, when asked whether permanent residents who were not citizens should be allowed to vote, hidden trump supporters were more than twice as likely to agree than committed trump supporters. and when asked whether it was acceptable for professional athletes to protest during the national anthem, hidden trump supporters were 2.5 times more likely to agree than were committed trump supporters, though still less likely to agree than clinton supporters. to be sure, these hidden supporters make up only a small portion of trump voters, but they were the critical group that defied predictions and helped propel mr. trump to victory. many democrats are stunned that despite his campaign<u+2019>s divisiveness , false statements and disregard for civil discourse , mr. trump will be in the white house. in the coming days and weeks, there will continue to be much discussion regarding how the forecasts got public sentiment so wrong. while it is tempting to assume that voters with extreme views made the difference, such voters have been vocally supporting mr. trump all along . rather than holding extreme views, hidden trump supporters consistently fell between committed trump and clinton voters on the ideological spectrum, our data suggests. in the end, it appears that those hidden trump supporters were hiding in plain sight. the tide turned on election night because americans with middle-of-the-road positions who leaned toward trump turned out to vote in larger numbers than we <u+2014> or perhaps the clinton campaign <u+2014> anticipated. this group, which helped swing the election, we hope, might also swing president trump in a more moderate direction. peter k. enns , the author of <u+201c>incarceration nation: how the united states became the most punitive democracy in the world,<u+201d> is executive director of the roper center for public opinion research and an associate professor of government at cornell university. jonathon p. schuldt is an assistant professor of communication at cornell and a faculty affiliate at the roper center. follow the new york times opinion section on facebook and twitter (@nytopinion), and sign up for the opinion today newsletter .
did moderates help elect trump?
peter k. enns jonathon p. schuldt