the value of the bully pulpit of the president of the united states can<u+2019>t be measured on a corporate spreadsheet or the excel file of a wall street analyst. but as president-elect donald j. trump tries to stop carrier from moving more than 2,000 jobs to mexico, the company is learning that the pulpit can be powerful indeed. carrier, in the middle of negotiations with the incoming administration, may end up keeping some of the jobs in indiana. in exchange, the incoming administration could ease up on regulation for businesses and cool campaign rhetoric on imposing tariffs. officials familiar with the situation, who insisted on anonymity because talks were still underway, described the discussion on friday as a two-way negotiation, with both sides seeking a compromise. carrier and its corporate parent, united technologies , confirmed on thursday that executives were in discussions about the fate of two factories in indiana scheduled to shut down, not long after mr. trump posted on twitter that he was <u+201c>working hard, even on thanksgiving,<u+201d> to get carrier to stay. <u+201c>making progress,<u+201d> he added, in all capital letters. for both mr. trump and the company, the stakes are huge. his promise to reverse trade deals like the north american free trade agreement, or nafta, and bring back manufacturing jobs to the united states was critical in taking the rust belt out of the democratic column and winning the white house. <u+201c>trump cannot afford to back down on this one,<u+201d> said robert dilenschneider, a veteran public relations executive who advises companies and chief executives on strategic communications. <u+201c>he prides himself on the art of the deal, and he<u+2019>s going to make carrier an offer they can<u+2019>t refuse.<u+201d> <u+201c>it<u+2019>s a hallmark case and if trump can win it, which i think he will, it will send a message to every single american company that<u+2019>s thinking of going offshore,<u+201d> mr. dilenschneider added. for the company, the costs of defying the president-elect are at least as high, if not higher, and may well outweigh the tens of millions of dollars to be saved by relocating production to monterrey, mexico, from indiana. united technologies is among the country<u+2019>s biggest military contractors, producing engines for the pentagon<u+2019>s most advanced fighter jets and receiving more than $5 billion annually from the federal government. that equals 10 percent of the company<u+2019>s revenue. the size of the federal government<u+2019>s dealings with united technologies has also caught the eye of legislators on capitol hill, like senator joe donnelly, democrat of indiana. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s unfair to ask the same workers who have been laid off to pay tax dollars that will go to the company that fired them,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>we<u+2019>re in this together as americans. when our workers succeed, our economy succeeds and our defense contractors succeed.<u+201d> senator donnelly is pushing for the government to consider outsourcing as a factor in deciding which companies receive federal contracts. kenneth g. dau-schmidt, a professor of labor and employment law at the maurer school of law at indiana university, said he also thought that mr. trump <u+201c>could get a win here,<u+201d> adding, <u+201c>because they are a defense contractor, the federal government has some leverage.<u+201d> <u+201c>whether he can do something that benefits the working class in general is a different story,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>the underlying problems are very hard to address. trying to hold back the economic tide of automation, and the loss of middle-class manufacturing jobs, is something i<u+2019>m not sure anybody can do.<u+201d> while carrier is best known for its air-conditioners, it also sells a variety of other heating and cooling equipment for homes and small businesses, like the furnaces and fan coils made at the indianapolis factory. and as a consumer-oriented business, carrier is much more vulnerable to public pressure than firms that primarily deal with other businesses, said barbara j. fick, a professor of law at notre dame law school. she noted that not far from notre dame<u+2019>s campus, at a plant in south bend, honeywell has been engaged in a bitter standoff since may with employees represented by the united automobile workers. <u+201c>honeywell doesn<u+2019>t make a lot of things you can boycott,<u+201d> ms. fick said. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s mostly business-to-business. to the extent that carrier makes air-conditioners and furnaces, you can hit them with the pocketbook.<u+201d> although carrier workers in indianapolis say management at the factory has been traveling back and forth to mexico in recent months, with mexican engineers measuring machines that are expected to be transported to monterrey, there is plenty of time for the company to change course. in a presentation this week, carrier<u+2019>s management told employees that the fan coil line would be the first to close in mid-2017, eliminating 300 to 400 jobs. but as that line closes, about 100 jobs will be saved temporarily by the creation of a new night shift making high-efficiency furnaces. high-efficiency furnace production is not set to end until mid- to late 2018, while the final line to close, mid-efficiency furnaces, won<u+2019>t he shuttered until early 2019. that staggered schedule has given workers some hope that if a compromise between the new administration and the company does emerge, it may revolve around keeping the gas furnace production lines open, even if a smaller number of jobs are relocated to mexico in the meantime. if a deal was reached, it could also help set the tone for a trump presidency in terms of corporate america, mr. dilenschneider said. much as ronald reagan<u+2019>s decision to fire striking air traffic controllers in 1981 signaled to organized labor that political momentum was no longer on their side, keeping carrier in indiana would show that a republican president was willing to stand up to corporate america. there are signs that mr. trump is already eager to show just that. this month, he took credit for ford<u+2019>s decision to keep lincoln production in kentucky, although it is not clear that any ford jobs at the louisville plant were actually in danger of going to mexico. <u+201c>it doesn<u+2019>t make any difference who the president is,<u+201d> mr. dilenschneider said. <u+201c>if the president of the united states says, <u+2018>do it,<u+2019> you<u+2019>ve got to give it some very serious thought.<u+201d> a version of this article appears in print on november 26, 2016, on page a13 of the new york edition with the headline: trump leans on carrier to keep 2,000 jobs from moving to mexico. order reprints | today's paper | subscribe
trump leans on carrier to keep 2,000 u.s. jobs from moving to mexico
nelson d. schwartz