yeadon, pa.<u+2014>the increasingly sophisticated ability of political consultants to identify and target persuadable voters is playing out on the doorsteps and in the mailboxes of nearly 300,000 voters here in southeastern pennsylvania. the super pac of the liberal group league of conservation voters said last month that it would be knocking on voters<u+2019> doors in montgomery and delaware counties, in the philadelphia suburbs that are a battleground in the contest between democrat hillary clinton and republican donald trump. in its announcement, the league named the precise criteria it planned to use to identify and target voters, saying in a news release that it would be knocking on the doors of voters with a <u+201c>vote propensity score<u+201d><u+2014>a likelihood that they will turn out to vote<u+2014>above 50 and a <u+201c>clinton support score between 20 and 90,<u+201d> which are criteria that apply to a database internal to the democratic party and its allies. the league<u+2019>s public disclosure of the specific criteria allows the clinton campaign to use the data to pinpoint its canvassing in the area<u+2014>the two political groups aren<u+2019>t permitted to coordinate efforts under election law. but the league<u+2019>s announcement also set off a reaction from the republicans national committee, which used its own data to target the same voters with a countermessage by mail and phone. representatives for the clinton campaign declined to comment on the announcement. lindsay walters, a spokeswoman for the rnc, said the committee<u+2019>s <u+201c>substantial investment in data and analytics over the past four years has put us on a level playing field and given us the ability to respond in real time.<u+201d> <u+201c>when the democrats give out their playbook publicly, we<u+2019>re going to be aggressive and confident in our ability to respond to exactly the voters they<u+2019>re targeting. we<u+2019>re confident that our analytics capabilities are at or beyond that of the democrats,<u+201d> she said. the battle over this cohort of people in pennsylvania showcases the increased sophistication between the parties to identify, cajole and turn out voters<u+2014>a battle that is being fought with ever-greater precision. door-to-door canvassing is widely seen as the gold standard in political-persuasion techniques, and that edge was on display last month when the league door-knockers hit the streets. a canvasser knocked on the door of margaret, a retiree who asked that her last name not be used. she told the canvasser that social security ranked as her issue of top concern but didn<u+2019>t know which candidate would better address it. the canvasser then spent a few minutes describing the candidates<u+2019><u+00a0>positions: mrs. clinton has committed to funding the existing social security system, she said, while mr. trump has said he would like to<u+00a0>see the system privatized<u+2014>a characterization disputed by his campaign. margaret considered the information and asked the canvasser for a piece of literature with more information on mrs. clinton. reached about a week later by a wall street journal reporter, margaret said she had received a piece of mail from the rnc, asking for money. she said she didn<u+2019>t give any. both parties began using consumer data to build profiles of voters starting in the late 1990s and 2000s, and data and analytics have become increasingly sophisticated in recent years. republicans, who were outclassed in 2012 by the data operation built by president barack obama, say the party has made significant strides since then in pulling even with the democrats in terms of digital and analytical capabilities. the rnc<u+2019>s 2012 growth and opportunity report, sometimes called the <u+201c>autopsy,<u+201d> acknowledged the gap between the parties and recommended not only a larger investment in analytics and modeling but also a culture that championed the use of data to drive strategic decisions at all levels of republican politics. the rnc<u+2019>s data staff has nearly tripled since 2012, growing to about 30 staffers from about a dozen<u+2014>many working out of the third floor of the committee<u+2019>s capitol hill headquarters, with others deployed in the battleground states. <u+201c>i think the level of investment and emphasis that the rnc has given the data and analytics in the last four years has been stunning,<u+201d> said alex lundry, a republican consultant who ran mitt romney <u+2019>s data operation in 2012. <u+201c>they put in a lot of money, a lot of resources. they<u+2019>ve found a lot of people and trained them.<u+201d> and though mr. trump has publicly described data-driven campaigning as <u+201c>overrated,<u+201d> his campaign has spent $350,000 this year with a firm called cambridge analytica that helps do microtargeting. mr. trump also has seen a surge of grass-roots online fundraising with the aid of a campaign-consulting firm called prosper group. the league of conservation voters<u+2019> canvassing efforts are also steeped in data. they are built on modeling about who is likely to show up to the polls and whether they are leaning toward mrs. clinton. their canvassing technique is driven by social-science research on the best way to persuade. when the league announced its effort here, as well as in clark county, nev., and wake county, n.c., it billed the program as an operational breakthrough. the group modeled canvasses after a recent stanford university political-science study that suggested protracted conversations are more effective than typical, 30-second pitches in persuading voters to change their minds. on the recent eight-hour, door-knocking shift, though, the league<u+2019>s canvassing conversations didn<u+2019>t last nearly as long as the ones described in the study<u+2014>the longest conversation spanned about three minutes. canvassers make a point to introduce conversations by asking voters which issues matter to them most, rather than opening with a scripted pitch for mrs. clinton. of more than 100 doors knocked that day, few voters appeared willing to engage in a political conversation of any kind, though most said they planned to vote for mrs. clinton or were leaning her way.<u+00a0>a handful said they were looking at third-party options, and just one told a canvasser she was set on mr. trump. write to byron tau at byron.tau@wsj.com
campaigns use precise data to sift voters  - wsj
michelle hackman byron tau