trump carried new hampshire with 35.3 percent<u+2014> the first of 37 primaries that the businessman ultimately won in route to capturing the republican nomination. | ap photo by zach montellaro 11/06/16 07:23 am est on election day, there<u+2019>s only one number that matters: 270. but before that, there were plenty of others that dictated the final shape of the presidential contest between hillary clinton and donald trump. here are 16 numbers that mattered in the 2016 election: story continued below 1. the percentage, according to the associated press, that trump won in the new hampshire republican primary: 35.3 on feb. 2, conventional wisdom said trump<u+2019>s campaign was in trouble - he had just lost the iowa caucuses, and journalists said that the great trump experiment was on the ropes. the new york times declared trump<u+2019>s mystique <u+201c>pierced<u+201d> and said that trump <u+201c>will now be known by a title to which he is unaccustomed: loser.<u+201d> but next came new hampshire, a state that trump carried with 35.3 percent <u+2014> the first of 37 primaries that the businessman ultimately won in route to capturing the republican nomination. 2. the number of major candidates in the republican primary: 17 the republican primary field was historically large, with 17 major candidates vying for the nomination. from a retired neurosurgeon to former governors, the field was so big that all of the candidates couldn<u+2019>t fit on one debate stage. this had the dual effect of preventing opponents of trump from coalescing around one candidate and allowing trump to win states without winning a majority of the vote. he didn<u+2019>t win a majority of a state primary or caucus until his home state of new york. 3. the margin clinton defeated bernie sanders by in iowa: 0.3 clinton narrowly avoided a loss in the first contest for the democratic nomination, squeaking by bernie sanders 49.9 percent to 49.6 percent. while her margin of victory was by no means convincing, she escaped a narrative-changing disaster that could have derailed her second attempt at the white house. 4. the percentage of african-americans that clinton won in the south carolina primary: 86 clinton was able to hold off a strong challenge from sanders in part because of her dominance among african-american primary voters. clinton won 86 percent of african- american voters in south carolina exit polls , allowing her to run up the score here and in other similar southern states. she had similarly impressive margins in other key states, including florida and virginia . 5. the amount of free media trump received by the end of the primaries: $2.8 billion media firm mediaquant estimated that trump received $2.8 billion in free media during his run up to the republican nomination <u+2014> nearly four times the amount that his chief rival ted cruz received. and while the number doesn<u+2019>t take the tenor of the coverage into account, it plays into one long held trump axiom <u+2014> all news is good news. 6. the number of primaries and caucuses that bernie sanders won: 23 although clinton ultimately finished with a comfortable lead over sanders in the delegate count (in part because of her superdelegate lead), sanders won an incredible number of contests for an election that was supposed to be clinton<u+2019>s to lose. sanders transformed his wins into a dedicated base of support and influence in shaping the party platform <u+2014> no small feat for a man who proudly touts that he won his senate seat as an independent, not a democrat. 7. the amount jeb bush and his allies spent per delegate that he won: $53 million jeb bush was almost everything that the republican party establishment dreamed of when they thought of a potential nominee: a successful former governor with appeal to groups outside the gop base and who could raise cash hand over fist. bush and allied super pacs spent nearly $160 million, only to run into the trump buzzsaw and walk away with three delegates at the price of $53 million a pop. trumpworld meanwhile only spent $39,000 per delegate. money isn<u+2019>t everything. 8. president barack obama<u+2019>s approval rating: 54 both sides wanted this election to be a referendum on president barack obama<u+2019>s eight years in office <u+2014> and fortunately for the democrats, they appear to have won that battle. obama<u+2019>s approval rating sits at 54 percent in gallup<u+2019>s most recent weekly average, taking the wind out of the sails of a lot of republican attacks. combined with the uber-popular first lady, the obamas turned into two of clinton<u+2019>s most effective surrogates. 9. the number of clinton emails released by the state department: 30,000 one of the underlying narratives that has been haunting clinton was her use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state. she turned over 30,000 emails to the state department (but not before withholding an additional 30,000 because they were deemed <u+201c>personal<u+201d>) which were then trickled out. eventually, the releases revealed that classified information was stored on the server. the clinton campaign saw another email related problem, too. fbi director james comey<u+2019>s surprise announcements of the discovery of emails from huma abedin on disgraced ex-congressman anthony weiner<u+2019>s computer threw a monkey wrench in the final weeks of the campaign, while wikileaks has a daily drip of emails purported to be hacked from her campaign chief john podesta. 10. the number of viewers for the first presidential debate: 84 million this election has been a steel cage match - and one that the american people wanted a ringside seat for. the first faceoff between trump and clinton drew 84 million viewers, the most watched presidential debate in modern american history. the debate, whose viewership best compared to a super bowl, blew out the ratings for the first debate in 2012 and 2008. the first debate more than doubled the viewership for the final game of this year<u+2019>s world series, which was the most watched baseball game in 15 years. 11. trump<u+2019>s fundraising deficit to clinton: $413.5 million clinton<u+2019>s campaign and joint fundraising committees have raised a combined $866.6 million this cycle, nearly doubling team trump<u+2019>s $453.1 million. and this big lead is despite the fact that trump has pledged to give $100 million to fund his own campaign <u+2014> a promise he has not lived up to . the fundraising lead has manifested itself in several advantages, from a massive cash on hand lead down the stretch to being able to build a ground game that democrats are relying on . 12. clinton<u+2019>s spending advantage over trump on television ads: $137.4 million one thing that clinton<u+2019>s massive fundraising advantage afforded her was the ability to flood the airwaves early and often, while trump remained largely silent until recently. since the beginning of august, clinton<u+2019>s campaign has dropped $211.4 million on television ads, nearly triple the amount of trump<u+2019>s spending. in most swing states, clinton outspent trump week to week on the airwaves. she even had the money to troll trump on air in texas. 13. the percentage of trump voters who think <u+201c>corruption<u+201d> could cost him the election: 43 as the polls have gotten worse and worse for trump, he started pushing a narrative - that the election is <u+201c>rigged,<u+201d> something that a plurality of his supporters bought into. a usa today/suffolk university poll found that 43 percent of trump supporters think that the election could be rigged against him. the same poll also found that 75 percent of voters think the media is in the tank for clinton. and with trump himself refusing to say if he<u+2019>ll accept the results, america could be facing a crisis on november 9. 14. the number of senate seats the gop has to defend: 24 for all the sound and fury going on at the top of the ticket, there is also a tight battle raging for control of the upper house. republicans are desperately trying to defend that majority, but one thing that complicates that is the number of seats they have to defend. twenty-four republican seats are up for grabs, compared to just 10 for the democrats, making their difficult task of keeping the senate even harder. fivethirtyeight gives the democrats a 6-in-10 shot of capturing the senate. 15. the projected amount that will be spent on the 2016 election: $6.6 billion: despite the fact that trump is notoriously frugal with his campaign cash, this election is on pace to be the most expensive ever. the center for responsive politics is conservatively estimating that candidates, political parties and outside groups will spend a combined $6.6 billion on all the races in 2012 <u+2014> from presidential primaries to congressional races. even more shocking is that this massive amount represents a slower growth rate than expected in part due to trump, meaning there is a potential for even more money to flow in future elections. 16. the share of the electorate latinos are expected to reach: 10 percent larry sabato expects latinos to make up one in every 10 voters in the united states, a crucial demographic clinton needs to turn out to win the white house. latino decisions expects clinton to win 79 percent of this key group (higher than what obama won in 2012), compared to trump<u+2019>s palty 16 percent. and with black voter turnout sagging so far and trump running strong among less than college educated whites, latino turnout could decide who sits in the oval office come january. by bill scher by thomas wright by joshua zeitz by jack shafer
2016 election: 16 numbers that mattered  - politico
zach montellaro jack shafer