washington<u+2014> donald trump <u+2019>s tumbling poll numbers have given democrats their strongest tailwinds in a decade, heightening expectations for significant gains in the house, though likely not enough in the eyes of most analysts to shift control of the chamber. republicans have sought to contain the downballot damage, with some distancing themselves from the top of the ticket completely after a 2005 video emerged in which mr. trump made lewd sexual remarks and women said he touched them inappropriately. speaker paul ryan (r., wis.), has said he is now focused on maintaining gop control of congress , and won<u+2019>t campaign with mr. trump. <u+201c>it is indisputable that we are going to pick up far more seats than anybody originally believed,<u+201d> said rep. steve israel of new york, a former chairman of house democrats<u+2019> campaign arm who is not running for re-election. most analysts believe that even if hillary clinton wins in a landslide, democrats are unlikely to pick up the net 30 seats they would need to regain the house majority they lost in the tea party-fueled wave of the 2010 election. <u+201c>i haven<u+2019>t seen a wholesale shift in the landscape,<u+201d> said david wasserman, who tracks house races for the nonpartisan cook political report. he forecasts a net gain of between 10 and 20 seats for democrats. but, he added, <u+201c>there are races that have become much tighter because republicans have failed to distance themselves from trump or haven<u+2019>t run good races to separate themselves.<u+201d> the pressure is intensifying on republicans such as rep. john mica of florida who is being challenged by democrat stephanie murphy, a college professor and former national security analyst at the defense department. court-ordered redistricting in 2014 added more younger and racially diverse constituents to the district mr. mica, 73 years old, has represented since 1993. ms. murphy, 38 years old, has argued she would be a better advocate on gun-control and gay rights issues in the wake of the june mass shooting at the pulse nightclub in orlando, located less than a block outside the district. mr. mica has framed the incident as a national security concern. soheila mohammadian, a pharmacist from orlando, said she didn<u+2019>t know much about mr. mica, but felt turned off by his continued support of mr. trump. <u+201c>we americans, we<u+2019>re democrat, republican, white, black, latino and non-latino, muslim and non-muslim,<u+201d> said ms. mohammadian, who plans to vote for mrs. clinton. <u+201c>just taking a side and working hard to antagonize each other won<u+2019>t take us far as a nation.<u+201d> the gop presidential nominee isn<u+2019>t dragging down republicans evenly, noted mr. wasserman. mr. trump has been a bigger weight in wealthier, white-collar districts represented by republicans like mr. mica and reps. darrell issa of california than in blue-collar districts with more of the working-class white voters who have flocked in larger numbers to mr. trump, such as gop rep. bruce poliquin <u+2019>s district in maine. mr. poliquin hasn<u+2019>t said publicly whether he will vote for mr. trump. many of the most competitive house contests are clustered in regions across the country, including more centrist patches of california, where gop reps. steve knight, jeff denham and david valadao are all locked in tight races. florida is home to four highly competitive house races, several of which arose out of redistricting. there are seven swing districts across new york state, which are tougher for both parties to sway because they have neither a competitive presidential or a senate contest in the state. and several midwestern republicans, including reps. bob dold of illinois and rod blum of iowa, are in tossup races against democratic challengers. democrats have ratcheted up their efforts to tie gop incumbents to mr. trump. at least four democratic candidates have aired ads using footage of the 2005 video. the democratic congressional campaign committee also has crafted new ads criticizing republicans who denounced mr. trump this month, saying they waited too long to act. their polling show vulnerable republicans aren<u+2019>t necessarily helped by splitting now with mr. trump. a poll conducted nationally last week for house democrats<u+2019> campaign arm found that a generic democratic candidate held a 12-point advantage over both generic republican candidates who rescinded their support for mr. trump and those who maintained it. still, voters aren<u+2019>t responding to the latest twists in the presidential campaign by flocking en masse to democrats. asked in the latest wall street journal/nbc news poll which party they would want to control congress after next month<u+2019>s elections, 46% of the registered voters favored a democratic-led congress; 44% backed a gop-led congress. the current two-point advantage is dwarfed by the margin in polls in years past when democrats picked up large numbers of house seats. in 2006, voters wanted a democratic-led congress by 10 percentage points in journal/nbc polling, and the party gained 30 seats. in 2008, voters favored a democratic-led congress by 11 percentage points, and the party gained more than 20 seats. <u+201c>i feel very confident that we will keep the majority even if our majority does shrink a little,<u+201d> said rep. steve stivers (r., ohio), who is in the running to be the next chairman of house republicans<u+2019> campaign arm. <u+201c>most voters want a republican congress regardless of who<u+2019>s president.<u+201d> financial disclosure reports for the three months ending in september show gop candidates in the tightest house races have more cash on hand than their democratic opponents going into the election<u+2019>s home stretch. twelve of 19 republicans in the closest races had more money in the bank than their democratic opponents, though the democrats largely raised more money in that three-month period. on friday, the congressional leadership fund, the main super pac working to elect republicans to the house, invested an additional $10 million to create a <u+201c>firewall<u+201d> for republicans who are considered safe, but could fall victim to a huge democratic wave. the way voters are distributed across congressional districts also often benefits republicans. democrats tend to be more clustered in cities, with republicans dispersed more evenly. as a result, democrats tend to dominate a smaller number of urban districts while republicans win more districts, though by slimmer margins. write to kristina peterson at kristina.peterson@wsj.com
democrats eye big gain in house seats - wsj
kristina peterson michelle hackman