washington <u+2014> the contest for control of the house of representatives will probably yield an even more polarized chamber, leaving a smaller, more conservative republican majority that may challenge the re-election of paul d. ryan as speaker and greet hillary clinton with a fresh round of investigations <u+2014> whether she wins the white house or not. some members of the hard-right house freedom caucus met privately on wednesday to discuss agitating for more clout, which could take the form of a challenge to mr. ryan, or a call for rules changes that the speaker is likely to oppose. and there are no signs that the good will that often accompanies the arrival of a new president will again take hold. <u+201c>i hate to be gloomy, but it doesn<u+2019>t strike me as probably helping make politics more functional than it is,<u+201d> said john sides, a professor of political science at george washington university. <u+201c>it seems to me that a pretty likely outcome of the election is divided government, and that may make politics seem pretty similar to what we<u+2019>ve had for the past several years.<u+201d> going into the final weekend of campaigning, republicans are expected to keep their hold on the house, but with a narrower majority than the one they hold now, which is their largest since the 1930s. nonpartisan analysts are forecasting that democrats will pick up five to 20 seats next week, well shy of the 30 needed to retake control. in recent weeks, republicans have begun to present themselves as a necessary check on mrs. clinton, should she be elected, arguing that they cannot advance their agenda without at least a house majority. <u+201c>she could come in with a democrat congress, the worst of all possible things, if republicans do not turn out and do not vote,<u+201d> mr. ryan said on tuesday in an interview with fox news. a republican-controlled house is expected to continue to enthusiastically embrace its role as watchdog on mrs. clinton, regardless of the outcome of the presidential race. representative jason chaffetz, republican of utah and the chairman of the house committee on oversight and government reform , on thursday offered a lengthy list of continuing investigative targets from mrs. clinton<u+2019>s time as the secretary of state. <u+201c>win or lose, we still have to examine and help clean up the mess that she created at the state department,<u+201d> he said. in an interview with fox news on wednesday, representative michael mccaul, republican of texas and chairman of the house committee on homeland security , said the house would pursue impeachment proceedings against mrs. clinton should a new federal investigation into her use of a private email server look likely to lead to an indictment. but mr. chaffetz pushed back against that assertion. <u+201c>i<u+2019>m not operating this investigation with the end predetermined. so any talk of impeachment is much too premature,<u+201d> mr. chaffetz said. <u+201c>in fact, i think it<u+2019>s destructive to the process to suggest that that<u+2019>s going to happen. we don<u+2019>t know because we don<u+2019>t have all the facts yet.<u+201d> moderate republicans are most at risk in next week<u+2019>s election. representative charlie dent of pennsylvania, expressed optimism that his fellow moderates will prevail, but if they lose, he said, it could be more difficult for the house to deal with pressing matters such as tax reform or an overhaul of the nation<u+2019>s infrastructure. <u+201c>there is the potential for a smaller, pragmatic and governing wing of the republican party ,<u+201d> mr. dent said. but some members of the freedom caucus seem to have another agenda in mind. they strategized behind closed doors on wednesday about how to press for their priorities during the lame-duck session, as well as under a potential president donald j. trump, aides said. they also have been weighing rules changes they would like to see <u+2014> within the party and for the house as a whole <u+2014> largely intended to empower members with responsibilities typically reserved for leadership, including the selection of committee chairpersons. there is no need to clash with house leaders so long as their proposed changes are <u+201c>considered fairly,<u+201d> said representative andy harris, republican of maryland and a member of the freedom caucus, who did not attend wednesday<u+2019>s meeting. <u+201c>i think that would involve a fair discussion of the issues,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>i think that would involve a feeling that leadership is not putting its finger on the scale. take a vote, and let the chips fall where they may.<u+201d> members of the caucus are also concerned about a push from more moderate republicans to toss out the so-called motion to vacate the chair, a procedural move through which a single member can force a vote to remove the speaker. one member of the freedom caucus, representative mark meadows of north carolina, tried to use it to oust john a. boehner from his speakership last year, prompting many <u+2014> including mr. ryan <u+2014> to criticize it. mr. harris also cautioned there could be repercussions for those who had not fully supported mr. trump, should he lose. such frustration has largely been directed at mr. ryan after his decision to no longer defend or campaign with mr. trump. but many caucus members, including mr. harris, have said they would be open to voting for mr. ryan again during leadership elections on nov. 15. their latest discussions <u+2014> and the fact that a narrower republican majority would mean mr. ryan could afford to lose fewer votes to retain his speakership <u+2014> have raised the prospect that the group could resort to political hostage-taking to fulfill their demands. representative jim jordan, republican of ohio and chairman of the freedom caucus, declined to say thursday whether mr. ryan should remain as speaker. <u+201c>that<u+2019>s a question for down the road,<u+201d> he said during an interview with cnbc. representative tom cole, republican of oklahoma, said he did not believe mr. ryan<u+2019>s speakership was in danger. but if it was, he said, there would be pushback from other republicans. <u+201c>people can always try that,<u+201d> he said. <u+201c>but it doesn<u+2019>t work well to put a gun to the head of your own teammates and say, <u+2018>this is a negotiation.<u+2019><u+201d> correction: november 5, 2016 because of an editing error, an article on friday about the campaign for control of the house of representatives erroneously attributed a distinction to congressional republicans. the republicans hold the largest congressional majority for their party since the 1930s, not for either party. find out what you need to know about the 2016 presidential race today, and get politics news updates via facebook , twitter and the first draft newsletter . a version of this article appears in print on november 4, 2016, on page a18 of the new york edition with the headline: narrower g.o.p. margin could widen house divide. order reprints | today's paper | subscribe
a narrower majority for republicans could widen the house divide
emmarie huetteman