donald trump <u+2019>s victory in the u.s. presidential election has sent shivers through europe<u+2019>s foreign-policy establishment. americans have chosen a leader more vocally skeptical of trans-atlantic endeavors, from collective security to free trade, than any u.s. president since world war ii. mr. trump<u+2019>s ambivalence about u.s. security guarantees in europe, and multilateral pacts more generally, is spreading angst that an era is ending . the western-led, liberal internationalist order, based on rules and common institutions, seemingly emerged triumphant from the cold war. but mr. trump has repeatedly argued that current arrangements, from defense to economics, allow allies and rivals to exploit america. campaign rhetoric is one thing, governing is another, many european officials are telling themselves. <u+201c>we are determined to evaluate the president-elect based on his words and deeds after election day, and not on the basis of what he said during the campaign,<u+201d> says j<u+00fc>rgen hardt, the german government<u+2019>s coordinator for trans-atlantic relations. many european policy makers and foreign-affairs analysts say they simply don<u+2019>t know what to expect from a neophyte politician whose foreign-policy comments so far have been <u+201c>sparse and hard to interpret,<u+201d> as another official in berlin puts it. mr. trump<u+2019>s mercurial statements are making europe ponder three possible scenarios: mr. trump<u+2019>s use of the <u+201c>america first<u+201d> slogan, long associated with charles lindbergh and opposition to u.s. involvement in world war ii, has led some observers to expect further disengagement from european affairs. many in europe say the process, set in motion under the obama administration, is likely to become a long-term trend as the relative rise of other world powers erodes america<u+2019>s capacity to police all regions. the upshot would be that europe has to find new security arrangements to replace an atlantic alliance under an absentee hegemon. that conjures bad memories of the era between the two world wars, when britain and france weren<u+2019>t strong enough to uphold order in europe. in recent months, the european union has talked about beefing up its role in defense and security. but the eu<u+2019>s own fraying politics make any bolder ambitions a non-starter, says fran<u+00e7>ois heisbourg, special adviser at the foundation for strategic research in paris. <u+201c>we have the intersection of the trump challenge with the leadership problems in europe, exacerbated by brexit,<u+201d> he says. however, most observers believe full-blown isolationism is unlikely. the u.s. is too big and has too much at stake in europe and elsewhere to withdraw. experience suggests events<u+2014>such as the balkan wars in the 1990s<u+2014>have a way of sucking the u.s. in. european policy makers are preparing to lobby mr. trump to remain committed to america<u+2019>s decades-old role in guaranteeing peace and stability in europe, especially through the north atlantic treaty organization. some u.s. diplomats in europe have this week tried to reassure local audiences that not much will change. <u+201c>trump will need to hire advisers and colleagues from the republican party<u+2019>s security-policy establishment, even if he doesn<u+2019>t like it,<u+201d> says volker perthes, director of the german institute for international and security affairs in berlin. mr. trump has lately toned down his critique of nato , which he called <u+201c>obsolete<u+201d> this summer . but he has also said that many american allies must pay more for defense or lose u.s. protection and declined to say whether he would defend baltic countries against a russian attack. <u+201c>there will be an attempt to recalibrate the relationship,<u+201d> says jonathan eyal, international director at the royal united services institute in london. <u+201c>asking for more military spending by europe is not a novelty per se, and not without merit,<u+201d> he says. <u+201c>but trump will the first u.s. leader who has not said so far that there is a defense guarantee, or that the u.s. will abide by its commitments,<u+201d> mr. eyal says. <u+201c>he describes the relationship in purely transactional terms.<u+201d> many europeans<u+2019> best guess is that mr. trump will do what he says: seek to cut deals, especially with major powers such as russia, for whose president, vladimir putin, he has expressed admiration. <u+2018> trump will the first u.s. leader who has not said so far that there is a defense guarantee, or that the u.s. will abide by its commitments <u+2019> <u+201c>this implies a high degree of pragmatism,<u+201d> says mr. heisbourg. <u+201c>there are no set rules, only opportunism. if one deal doesn<u+2019>t work, you do something else.<u+201d> the greatest fear in western and central europe is that the u.s. might seek a rapprochement with russia based on great-power spheres of influence, rather than on multilateral rules that protect the right of smaller countries to choose their own alliances. for countries such as poland or estonia, that scenario harks back to earlier eras when their fates were decided by the ambitions or neglect of bigger powers to their east and west. for ukraine, already fighting a war against russian-backed separatists, it could signal the end of ambitions to escape moscow<u+2019>s orbit. mr. perthes says a mix of continuity and deal making is perhaps the most likely outcome, based on mr. trump<u+2019>s known views and the expected efforts by the u.s. and european foreign-policy establishment to influence him. but the uncertainty over mr. trump<u+2019>s foreign policy could in itself become a major factor in european geopolitics. <u+201c>we have more or less learned to live with putin, who makes unpredictability a strategic virtue for russia,<u+201d> says mr. heisbourg. <u+201c>we now have to learn to live with a u.s. that has become unpredictable. that is enough to provoke reactions, precautions, pre-emptions by america<u+2019>s partners.<u+201d> <u+2014>anton troianovski contributed to this article.
what europe hopes for, and fears, from a trump presidency  - wsj
marcus walker