washington<u+2014>house speaker paul ryan, under fire from conservatives for rebuffing republican presidential nominee donald trump , is likely to remain in the top job next year, but his path to get there will be narrow and precarious. the wisconsin republican, who rose to his perch a year ago after john boehner resigned amid divisions within the gop house caucus , will face growing wrath if his party suffers substantial defeats nov. 8. some republicans are already blaming mr. ryan for not doing more to shore up party unity after mr. trump<u+2019>s crude comments about women and debate performances that helped his democratic rival, hillary clinton, pad her lead in the polls. but a re-election to the speakership would allow mr. ryan to pick up the pieces of a party that splintered during the 2016 election cycle. if democrats take the white house and senate, but republicans retain the house, the speaker will cement his status as the nation<u+2019>s top republican and driver of the party<u+2019>s policy agenda. <u+201c>a lot of this unification effort that is going to have to happen is going to fall on his shoulders,<u+201d> said rep. reid ribble (r., wis.), who is retiring this year. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s going to be an uphill battle for a while, depending on how donald trump treats it<u+2014>if he has a vendetta and wants to blame paul ryan, then it is going to be hard<u+2014>but nothing is impossible.<u+201d> republicans<u+2019> willingness to anoint mr. ryan again for speaker will face its first test with the leadership votes that follow close on the heels of the nov. 8 election. mr. ryan remains popular with many house republicans, and perhaps his biggest advantage is that no one so far has emerged as a viable alternative to replace him. but the math could get difficult. if democrats pick up 20 house seats on nov. 8, shaving the house gop majority to 227 seats and bringing democrats up to 208, mr. ryan could lose no more than nine republican votes in the official speaker election on the house floor in january. a candidate must win a majority of all votes cast for an individual<u+2014>some of the house<u+2019>s 435 members may vote <u+201c>present<u+201d> and there may be multiple candidates. no democrats are likely to vote for mr. ryan. in the postelection autopsies, mr. trump<u+2019>s supporters are all but certain to zero in on mr. ryan<u+2019>s decision this month that he would no longer defend mr. trump or campaign with him after a 2005 video surfaced in which he speaks in lewd sexual terms about grabbing women without their consent. that stance angered many house republicans. <u+201c>given the stakes of this election, if paul ryan isn<u+2019>t for trump, then i<u+2019>m not for paul ryan,<u+201d> rep. jim bridenstine (r., okla.) said in a tweet the day after mr. ryan explained his decision in a conference call with house republicans. mr. trump has already fanned such criticisms, speculating earlier this month that mr. ryan didn<u+2019>t want mr. trump to win the presidency so that mr. ryan himself could run in 2020. mr. ryan may spark more conservative ire if the house passes a spending bill this fall to keep the government running once its current funding expires dec. 9. any spending bill that can garner the needed democratic votes to clear procedural hurdles in the senate likely will be too centrist to please the most conservative house members. adding to mr. ryan<u+2019>s challenges: the house gop<u+2019>s most conservative faction is likely to grow as a proportion of the party<u+2019>s overall numbers, since the lawmakers most imperiled by mr. trump<u+2019>s campaign are the centrist republicans in swing house districts. the most conservative house republicans are likely to coast to re-election. it isn<u+2019>t yet clear how much opposition mr. ryan will face in being re-elected speaker. many of mr. trump<u+2019>s most ardent congressional supporters say they still back mr. ryan even if they didn<u+2019>t agree with all of his election-year decisions. <u+201c>he<u+2019>s still the most qualified and prepared person in the job,<u+201d> said rep. kevin cramer (r., n.d.), a trump backer. <u+201c>if he<u+2019>s made mistakes throughout this last year, and i think paul would probably admit to some, that makes him all the better.<u+201d> mr. cramer said he expected that house republicans who have long chafed against gop leaders may use his stance on mr. trump <u+201c>to fan flames of discontent.<u+201d> some members of the house freedom caucus, a group of roughly 40 of the chamber<u+2019>s most conservative republicans, have signed a letter calling to delay the internal house gop leadership votes, which historically have occurred when congress returns to washington a week after the elections. but freedom caucus members have said they enjoy a better relationship with mr. ryan than his predecessor, mr. boehner. mr. ryan established an open-door policy and doubled to two the number of weekly gop conference meetings, giving the caucus a stronger voice than under mr. boehner, whom they criticized for centralizing decision-making. mr. ryan has also given money to more than a quarter of the freedom caucus<u+2019>s members, sending almost $100,000 over the last two campaign cycles to lawmakers such as reps. barry loudermilk (r., ga.) and rod blum (r., iowa), according to the center for responsive politics. in february, mr. ryan even attended a birthday fundraiser for rep. jim jordan (r., ohio), who leads the freedom caucus, according to a person familiar with mr. ryan<u+2019>s operations. in july 2015, rep. mark meadows (r., n.c.) submitted a measure designed to push mr. boehner from his perch and conservatives could threaten to do the same to mr. ryan. mr. ryan<u+2019>s allies are pushing back. house intelligence committee chairman devin nunes (r., calif.) is drafting a change to the house rules that would raise the threshold for the house to consider measures aimed at ousting the speaker. mr. nunes<u+2019>s measure would require a majority of the gop or democratic lawmakers to support such a move before it could come to the house floor. write to kristina peterson at kristina.peterson@wsj.com and siobhan hughes at siobhan.hughes@wsj.com
paul ryan faces precarious path to remain house speaker - wsj
kristina peterson siobhan hughes