the bar was low for donald j. trump after the worst two weeks for a presidential campaign in recent memory, and he seemed to clear it at sunday<u+2019>s debate. another decisive loss in a face-off with hillary clinton could have led to a mass revolt from republican officials and raised the possibility of a landslide defeat in november. it<u+2019>s too soon to be sure that mr. trump staved off further defections from the republican leadership. but if they abandon him, it will probably not be because of this performance. he did not do more damage beyond what was already done by a videotape that emerged on friday, when mr. trump was heard bragging about groping women and getting away with it because he was a celebrity. many commentators argued that mr. trump held his own sunday night; some argued he won the debate outright. and his tactics <u+2014> intentionally or not <u+2014> probably made it harder for the republican establishment to abandon him. he gave a lot of red meat to the g.o.p. base, calling mrs. clinton a liar and calling for her imprisonment. by energizing his supporters, he made it more challenging for republicans to rescind their support. but mr. trump<u+2019>s performance did not seem strong enough to change the dynamics of a race that has moved sharply against him over the last few weeks. mrs. clinton had a considerable lead even before friday. the upshot<u+2019>s model gives him just a 17 percent chance of winning the election, based on pre-videotape and pre-debate polls. mr. trump<u+2019>s challenge got considerably worse over the weekend, after the release of the videotape led dozens of republican officials to drop their endorsements. and he didn<u+2019>t seem to go out of his way sunday to try to broaden his support. the post-debate polls suggest as much: according to the cnn poll, mrs. clinton won the debate, 57 to 34 percent. but 63 percent of voters said that mr. trump did better than expected. a yougov poll found that mrs. clinton won the debate by five percentage points, but that she was more presidential by a margin of 57 to 31. instant polls are not always especially representative of the electorate, but both findings tell two sides of the same story: mr. trump may have averted total calamity, but he did not do so well as to fundamentally alter the race. mr. trump needs something big to break his way, and soon. it is quite possible that the next set of polls will show him trailing by a large margin <u+2014> by more than the five- or six-point deficit he faced before the release of the videotape. it<u+2019>s hard to imagine that the polls will show mr. trump faring any better than he was ahead of that news. needless to say, even if his deficit remained at five or six points, he would not be well positioned to win. if the polls show him slipping farther, he will need to make a bigger turnaround over the last month than any modern presidential candidate has been able to accomplish. the upshot provides news, analysis and graphics about politics, policy and everyday life. follow us on facebook and twitter . sign up for our newsletter .
donald trump probably stanched his losses, but didn<u+2019>t seem to gain
nate cohn