with just a few days before election day and all eyes fixed on the two leading candidates, it<u+2019>s easy to overlook a remarkable fact: the libertarian candidate for president, gary johnson, may tilt the election for hillary clinton. and if he does, it wouldn<u+2019>t be the first time <u+2014> not even close. the impact of third-party candidates on federal and state elections is as significant as it is overlooked. seventy-seven third-party candidates topped 2 percent of the vote in state elections from 2012 to 2015. in elections for governor in 2014 alone, a third of states saw third-party candidates win 2 percent or more. third parties can become king makers when they sap enough strength from one party to allow the other to prevail. think ralph nader and the 2000 presidential election in florida <u+2014> he received nearly 100,000 votes, and george w. bush won by 537 votes. (polls before the election as well the exit polls show that nader voters would have mostly selected al gore if mr. nader were not on the ballot.) third parties regularly draw enough support to be king makers in recent state elections as well. voting for third-party candidates was larger than the winning margin in seven races for governor and four united states senate races in 2014. in 2012, three third-party senate candidates also helped decide the election. during the 2010 midterm races, third-party candidates for governor together grabbed more votes than the winners<u+2019> margins of victory in 10 statewide elections. king making is a particular threat to g.o.p. candidates because libertarian candidates and anti-government independents typically lure away republican voters. in 2013, terry mcauliffe, a democrat, won virginia<u+2019>s governor<u+2019>s office from his republican opponent, ken cuccinelli ii, by 2.5 points, while the libertarian candidate, robert sarvis, won 6.52 percent, perhaps costing mr. cuccinelli the election. in rhode island<u+2019>s 2014 race for governor, the republican candidate, allan fung, was super-nadered <u+2014> he lost by only 4 percent to the democrat, gina raimondo, when the conservative independent, robert healey, drew 21 percent. there were also many near misses, as in florida in 2014. rick scott, a republican, won the governor<u+2019>s race by one point over his democratic opponent, charlie crist. the 3.75 percent won by the libertarian candidate, adrian wyllie, drew almost enough republican votes to allow mr. crist to prevail. while third parties sometimes fade down the stretch, virginia and florida showcase voting patterns that may allow mr. johnson to retain his support and thereby hurt mr. trump. but they are not the only states where mr. trump may be affected. in colorado, a libertarian and three other conservative third-party candidates together captured 5.52 percent of the vote in the 2014 senate race <u+2014> more than president obama<u+2019>s 5.36 percent margin in 2012. mitt romney won north carolina by 2.04 percentage points in 2012; the vote for a libertarian candidate in the 2014 senate race was 3.74 percent. if arizona remains closely fought in the 2016 presidential race, we could see the same story play out: in arizona<u+2019>s 2012 senate race, 4.55 percent voted for the libertarian candidate. although republicans have been hit harder by third parties in recent state elections, democrats have not been immune. in the 2014 race for governor of massachusetts, the republican, charlie baker, beat the democrat, martha coakley, by only 1.86 percentage points. a moderate third-party candidate, evan falchuk, took 3.33 percent of the vote, perhaps leading to ms. coakley<u+2019>s defeat. what about the threat of the green party<u+2019>s jill stein? if history is any evidence, her effect will be minimal: there are no cases where a green candidate won more votes than the margin of victory in statewide battles for governor or the united states senate in 2012 or 2014. why are republicans more vulnerable? the anti-government and fiscal conservative platforms of libertarian and independent candidates are registering with voters who distrust the g.o.p. but it<u+2019>s more than that: among democrats, mr. nader<u+2019>s impact on the florida vote in 2000 delivered a searing lesson about voting third party in a close race. all of this is recent history, but there are lessons further back in time that are still useful today. the trump campaign should be studying the 1912 election <u+2014> teddy roosevelt<u+2019>s campaign as a progressive candidate failed to capture the white house, but he split the republican vote and cleared the way for the democrat, woodrow wilson. mr. johnson may be no t.r., but he may well go down in history as america<u+2019>s latest presidential king maker <u+2014> or, in this case, queen maker. lawrence r. jacobs is a professor of political science and the director of the center for the study of politics and governance at the hubert h. humphrey school of public affairs at the university of minnesota, where jonathan spiegler is a graduate research assistant and student. follow the new york times opinion section on facebook and twitter (@nytopinion), and sign up for the opinion today newsletter .
gary johnson, queen maker
lawrence r. jacobs jonathan spiegler