tonight has become another useful lesson in humility amid uncertainty and unpredictable elections. thanks for reading, and we<u+2019>ll be back tomorrow with more. <u+2014>joseph rago folks, we<u+2019>re pausing this forum for a few moments while we watch these surprising returns with everybody else. we<u+2019>ll be back shortly. <u+2014>joseph rago this day started out with many speculating about the death of the gop. if trump pulls it out, given the republican dominance at the state level shouldn<u+2019>t it be the democratic party that should be worried? <u+2014>william mcgurn in another shocker, republican phil scott won the vermont governor<u+2019>s race. one major factor in the race was the stillborn universal health-care plan promoted by democratic governor pete shumlin (who didn<u+2019>t stand for re-election). mr. scott also ran against the state<u+2019>s high tax burden and cost of living. even in some of the nation<u+2019>s most liberal corners, voters appear to be revolting against progressive governance. <u+2014>allysia finley paul ryan and ron johnson deserve a lot of credit for this wisconsin result, not to mention scott walker. they never stopped selling what they stood for. <u+2014>daniel henninger republican john faso <u+2019>s victory in new york<u+2019>s 19th congressional district is a rebuke of progressive governance. this was a quintessential swing district, and his democratic opponent zephyr teachout ran as an unalloyed progressive in the image of elizabeth warren. mr. faso will be a welcome addition to the gop<u+2019>s reform caucus. <u+2014>allysia finley mr. trump wins wisconsin, pulled to victory by sen. ron johnson<u+2019>s coattails. <u+2014>dan henninger one reason hillary clinton lost north carolina is she underperformed president obama among millennials as well as blacks, two legs of the left<u+2019>s <u+201c>coalition of the ascendant.<u+201d> that coalition doesn<u+2019>t look so ascendant this year. many supporters of president obama and bernie sanders appear to have stayed home this year, which may enable the tar heel state gov. pat mccrory to pull out an unlikely victory. <u+2014>allysia finley ron johnson<u+2019>s senate victory in wisconsin is a credit to johnson<u+2019>s own instincts and confidence. he fired his d.c. consultants, brought in local guys he trusted, and then ran ads that reminded voters who he is. david mcintosh at the club for growth also took chance with an october ad buy that kept it close until the other gop players woke up. biggest surprise of the year in the senate. <u+2014>paul a. gigot fox news has now called wisconsin for republican senator ron johnson. this was one of the toughest races republicans faced tonight, and says a lot about how the electorate is breaking. it also says a lot about mr. johnson, who is one of the hardest workers in the senate, and who shook up his campaign approach at a late stage, staging a new focus that reminded voters he was the real deal. this pretty much seals a republican senate. <u+2014>kim strassel with donald trump putting in a tenacious showing tonight, much of the talk is about his strength and support. but it<u+2019>s also worth remembering all that hillary clinton has done to turn off voters, and make it impossible for them to turn out for one of the more unethical candidates for president in recent history. mrs. clinton has been variously under investigation by the fbi for more than a year for her unauthorized private server, in which she transferred classified information. while fbi director james comey gave her a second pass on charges this past week, news reports say that the fbi is also actively investigating whether there have been pay to play schemes at the clinton foundation. this is on top of mrs. clinton<u+2019>s 30 years of checkered dealings, from cattle futures to recent payload speeches. mr. trump has real supporters, many of them attracted to his message of change in washington. mrs. clinton has helped him with that message, in coming across as a candidate who sees washington as a way to personal self-enrichment, rather than a problem to be solved. <u+2014>kim strassel mr. trump is projected to lose colorado, but even a left-of-center state is not buying the bernie sanders health-care plan: a ballot proposal for single-payer insurance is getting crushed 80% to 20%. the repudiation comes years after the idea tanked in vermont, and it<u+2019>s a blow to mrs. clinton and democrats who are so eager to pass a <u+201c>public option<u+201d> nationally. <u+2014>kate bachelder odell earlier this year, the republican national committee issued a report entitled <u+201c>2016 election principles,<u+201d> drafted by newt gingrich. it looked back at the successes of the 2014 midterms for republicans, and made the point that the gop needed to engage in better <u+200b><u+201d>inclusion<u+201d> tactics to get minority votes. among the cases mr. gingrich highlighted was the 2014 win of virginia<u+2019>s barbara comstock, who won a stunning victory in a district she was expected to lose. mr. gingrich gave mrs. comstock credit for making huge inroads with both her natural constituency, but also with a growing asian community, which is now 5% of the state<u+2019>s population. mrs. comstock has practiced the same approach in the 2016 race, showing up at nearly every event and community moment in every community possible in this election. it paid off. with 92% of the vote in, mrs. comstock has been declared the winner over democratic competitor luanne bennett, with 55% of the vote compared to 45%. this is an example of republicans reaching out to new voters, and making the inroads necessary to win. <u+2014>kim strassel richard burr has won in north carolina. it now looks as though the republicans will hold the senate (especially if joe manchin of west virginia tips a 50-50 senate by switching to the republicans), which at a minimum means a president clinton would be put in check. or that the republicans could control the government if mr. trump pulls it off. so the election is going to produce either relative political gridlock (president clinton), or potentially real progress on the economy (president trump). <u+2014>dan henninger whether donald trump wins or loses this close race, we can now conclude that the never trump movement was largely a phenomenon of media pundits, not republican voters. <u+2014>james freeman donald trump is making a race out of michigan. just a quarter of precincts have been reported, but he<u+2019>s up by about 4%. exit polls show that independents broke for him 51-38 where as they split evenly between obama and mitt romney in 2012. these are the working-class white voters that delivered him the gop nomination. <u+2014>allysia finley i remember watching the brexit results with mouth agape. mr. trump still needs to win the biggest swing states, but a night like this certainly teaches humility. <u+2014>paul a. gigot new york times live presidential forecast: <u+201c>our best guess right now is that donald trump is on track to win.<u+201d> <u+2014>james freeman very few political analysts and wall street forecasters expected such a close election. time to start contemplating the possibility that election day doesn<u+2019>t definitively resolve the election, including a 269-269 electoral college tie, or florida 2000-style contested election results in multiple states, or a split between the electoral college and the popular vote. <u+2014>joseph rago the indiana gubernatorial race was called for republican eric holcomb, which shows how a rising gop tide can lift all boats. mr. holcomb trailed the democrat john gregg throughout the race, and many didn<u+2019>t think mike pence would hold the governorship had he stood for re-election. but a huge gop turnout appears to have boosted mr. holcomb. this is a huge blow to the left which hoped to use cultural issues, particularly last year<u+2019>s religious freedom law, to depress support for the republican ticket. <u+2014>allysia finley wow. fox reports that west virginia sen. joe manchin says he<u+2019>s not committed to staying a democrat if senate is 50-50. he<u+2019>s up for re-election in 2018 and apparently wants to stay in the senate. he<u+2019>d have a very rough race as a democrat, probably win with ease as a republican. <u+2014>paul a. gigot one depressing result in this election is the continuation of racial polarization. white voters still going for trump by 55%-37% in the exit polls, while minorities going overwhelming for clinton: hispanics by 2 to 1, and black voters by 87%-8%. even asians went 2 to 1 for clinton. this isn<u+2019>t good for the health of american society to have deep political divisions based on race. <u+2014>paul a. gigot do the clintons plan to disclose who<u+2019>s paying for chelsea<u+2019>s attire this evening? let<u+2019>s hope it isn<u+2019>t a nonprofit that raises money on behalf of the world<u+2019>s poor. <u+2014>james freeman per adam<u+2019>s point below, what we<u+2019>re seeing up and down the country is that politicians who were prepared, keep in touch with their home base and approach voters with a sense of urgency tend to win. complacency is lethal. <u+2014>joseph rago rep. john mica, a 12-term incumbent from florida, lost re-election to a 38-year-old political novice, stephanie murphy. with all the votes counted, the republican veteran came up around 10,000 votes short of the college professor. republicans will hold the house, but this was a preventable loss: a week ago mr. mica was laughing about his <u+201c>terrible press operation<u+201d> and lack of a campaign manager. <u+2014>adam o<u+2019>neal among the many reasons hillary clinton chose tim kaine as a vice presidential running mate was the belief that he<u+2019>d help deliver the crucial state of virginia<u+2014>where he currently sits as u.s. senator and formerly served as governor. by contrast, donald trump chose mike pence, the governor of the state of indiana, which is reliably republican, and therefore didn<u+2019>t necessarily fit the category of a vice-presidential-deliverable. at least on electoral votes, mrs. clinton isn<u+2019>t necessarily getting the bang for her buck. at current standing, virginia has reported 84% of its vote and mr. trump is winning by more than two percentage points. meanwhile in indiana, with 60% reporting, mr. trump is winning by 20 percentage points. even if mrs. clinton pulls out a virginia win in the end, it will be a squeaker. mr. kaine was meant to help cement her with moderate voters<u+2014>like many of those in virginia<u+2014>but it isn<u+2019>t necessarily turning out that way. <u+2014>kim strassel nationally, the electorate according to exit polls looks remarkably similar to 2012. white men this year make up the same share of voters (34%) as they did four years ago. ditto latinos (11%). the black vote is down just one percentage point to 12%. however, the share of college grads has increased three percentage points to 50%, which suggests that any donald trump isn<u+2019>t benefiting tremendously from a large turnout among working class voters. on the other hand, state exit polls suggest that mrs. clinton can<u+2019>t lean on a strong minority turnout. in arizona, latinos this year make up 17% of voters compared to 18% in 2012. the latino share of the electorate is likewise down in colorado. also hurting mrs. clinton, the black share of the electorate has fallen three percentage points in pennsylvania and by two in north carolina. <u+2014>allysia finley we are now at 9:20, and the race is too close to call in florida, north carolina, new hampshire and pennsylvania. in florida, he is up 130,000 votes, with 93% reporting. this alone is evidence that donald trump has made this a real race. <u+2014>kim strassel only 17% of the vote in up in new hampshire. why does it take so long to count votes there? <u+2014>dan henninger we seem to be in for a closer contest tonight than many predicted. if it goes late into the night, that doesn<u+2019>t mean pollsters were all wrong, but may simply mean that donald trump is a good finisher. exit polls from a number of key swing states show late deciders going for the republican. exit polls also show mr. trump running strongly among voters who believe the economy is poor, of which there are many. <u+2014>james freeman the obverse of paul<u+2019>s point in the next item is that in some states and districts republicans who distanced themselves from mr. trump probably harmed their candidacy. in new hampshire, kelly ayotte is only running 0.3 percentage points ahead of the businessman after withdrawing her support. <u+2014>joseph rago republican barbara comstock has a 10-point lead in virginia<u+2019>s 10th district in the washington, d.c., exurbs with half the vote counted. this was a also a major target for democrats. looks like her decision to distance herself from donald trump is paying off. she<u+2019>s a potential state-wide candidate someday. <u+2014>paul a. gigot the night is still young, but what seems clear is that donald trump is more popular than his signature cause of cracking down on illegal immigration. americans, traditionally a welcoming and optimistic people, are telling pollsters that they want otherwise law-abiding people who entered the country illegally to have a path to citizenship. if mr. trump wins, this suggests that other issues, such as his plans to cut taxes and regulation and to choose justices who will defend the constitution, deserve more of his time and attention. win or lose, it also suggests that a large swath of americans were willing to abide a candidate whose principal issue they opposed in order to stop hillary clinton. <u+2014>james freeman good to see rep. warren davidson, who succeeded john boehner in representing ohio<u+2019>s 8th district, winning re-election to the house. this former small business owner is a defender of economic liberty who told us recently, <u+201c> the whole concept of a death tax is immoral .<u+201d> <u+2014>james freeman nbc has called the house for republicans, which means nancy pelosi has lost four straight elections. she lost her mojo when rahm emanuel decamped for the obama white house wasn<u+2019>t picking moderate candidates for swing districts. democratic candidate recruitment this year was lousy. time for mrs. pelosi to give someone else a try? <u+2014>paul a. gigot the indiana senate race has been called for republican todd young who benefited from donald trump<u+2019>s strong coattails. evan bayh was dragged back from retirement by chuck schumer in july and started the race with a 20 point polling lead. however, republicans relentlessly hammered mr. bayh for casting the deciding 60th vote for obamacare. the local media also scrutinized his pay-to-play relationships during and after his two terms in the senate. what ultimately may have done him in was a sense among voters that he had lost touch with hoosiers. <u+2014>allysia finley good news for house republicans in florida. brian mast, military veteran, picks up patrick murphy <u+2019>s seat. murphy gave up the seat to run for senate but has lost to marco rubio. that<u+2019>s a pickup for the gop. carlos curbelo also has a big lead in his southern florida seat, and looks like a winner there. that was a major democratic target. <u+2014>paul a. gigot fox news has now called the indiana senate race for republican todd young, and consider democrat evan bayh<u+2019>s loss the vengeance of obamacare. mr. bayh voted for president obama<u+2019>s healthcare law, one of a number of democrats who could be considered the crucial 60th vote. then, rather than face the wrath of voters, mr. bayh resigned, and set up shop as a lobbyist in washington. when retiring senator dan coates left, mr. bayh suddenly announced his interest in reclaiming his seat the 44-year-old mr. young, a former marine, relentlessly hit mr. bayh on his obamacare vote, in a state that has witnessed as ugly a health-care meltdown as any. mr. bayh<u+2019>s time away from the state also didn<u+2019>t do much to re-ingratiate the democrat in the state. as recently as a few weeks ago, mr. bayh seemed to have a commanding lead. mr. young<u+2019>s victory suggests the recent shift in the polls toward republican senate candidates could be very real. <u+2014>kim strassel the big senate undercard: republican wins for rubio, portman and todd young over evan bayh in indiana. good trendline for republicans holding the senate, though kelly ayotte is running behind maggie hassan in new hampshire. looking like there indeed was something to voters producing divided government if hillary clinton wins the presidency. <u+2014>dan henninger todd young victory in indiana is a big win for mitch mcconnell over likely democratic senate leader chuck schumer, who personally recruited evan bayh out of beltway retirement. mr. bayh<u+2019>s votes in 2009-2010 caught up with him. <u+2014>paul a. gigot lost among the narrative of republicans-hate-minorities is the news that south carolina republican senator tim scott, the state<u+2019>s the first african-american senator since reconstruction, just won his first full term. mr. scott was appointed to his seat in 2013, after the resignation of former senator jim demint. he then won election to the final two years of the term. but tonight he roundly defeated democrat thomas dixon, a community activist to claim a full six years in office. the republican senator is a good example of the point that candidates matter. mr. scott ran a brutally honest campaign, in which, during the firestorm over shootings and black lives matters, he described how he<u+2019>d himself been stopped unfairly by police. at the same time he never wavered in his commitment to conservatives principles, and the importance of a republican senate. south carolina appreciated his candidness. <u+2014>kim strassel rob portman in 2020? crushed opponent in bellwether battleground state. <u+2014>dan henninger georgia ended up being more competitive than expected because of donald trump<u+2019>s poor standing among minorities and white educated voters who have pushed into the atlanta suburbs, a key battleground. according to exit polls, mrs. clinton leads 84-12 among the 39% of georgia<u+2019>s non-white voters. mr. trump has a nearly 50-point advantage among white voters. mrs. clinton is up 76-20 in the larger atlanta metropolitan area and 52-41 in the city<u+2019>s suburbs. <u+2014>allysia finley the networks called the ohio senate race for republican rob portman over ted strickland as soon as the polls closed even as the state is still too close to call at the presidential level. this is a reminder of how important candidate quality and campaign organization are. mr. portman build a fearsome campaign in a tough swing state and seemed fresher and projected more optimism than the irascible former governor. there isn<u+2019>t any clarity yet in north carolina, but if republican richard burr loses to deborah ross, it<u+2019>ll probably be because the incumbent took the state for granted. in indiana, also too close to call, democrat evan bayh had great name recognition in indiana, ditto, but he spent the last six years making a bundle as a lobbyist and couldn<u+2019>t remember the address of his indianapolis efficiency apartment. in missouri, republican roy blunt also had residency issues and practically his whole family also works in the influence business. <u+2014>joseph rago bernie<u+2019>s still in the race. but this time the vermont socialist isn<u+2019>t campaigning for himself. he was out in sacramento making a last-ditch effort for proposition 61, a california ballot initiative that would impose price controls on how much the state could spend on drugs for programs such as medicaid and state worker insurance. the pharmaceutical industry has outspent the pro-prop 61 forces by a huge margin. still, polls suggest it will be a close call. on monday mr. sanders encouraged an l.a. crowd to vote for prop 61 and deliver <u+201c>a shot heard <u+2018>round the world<u+201d> to <u+201c>big money interests.<u+201d> <u+2014>william mcgurn evan bayh and todd young are running even among independents in exit polls in indiana, which the networks have already called for donald trump. however, mr. young leads among all age groups over 29. recent polls had mr. bayh ahead with seniors, many of which weren<u+2019>t familiar with his post-senate career as a d.c. lobbyist. the exits also give mr. young a 24-point advantage in the greater indianapolis area. a large turnout for mr. trump appears to be boosting the republican congressman, particularly among white, working class voters. mr. young leads by 11 points among white college grads, but 21 points among whites without college degrees. <u+2014>allysia finley also from the early exits: donald trump is crushing it among white voters without college degrees: 65%-29%. that<u+2019>s 34% of the electorate in the early exits and is his deepest well of support. on the other hand, he<u+2019>s barely beating hillary clinton, 47%-46%, among white college graduates. and he<u+2019>s losing badly among white women college grads, 51%-43%. the trump team<u+2019>s biggest electoral bet has been that it could mobilize working class whites without losing affluent suburban whites. these numbers may decide mr. trump<u+2019>s fate. <u+2014>paul a. gigot one question the new jersey ballot asks voters this year is whether they want to expand casino gambling. right now atlantic city has a monopoly, and in a bid to expand casinos to northern new jersey proponents of the measure are trying to sell the usual benefits: more jobs, more revenue, etc. but it looks like my fellow citizens aren<u+2019>t buying . it<u+2019>s not so much moral objections to gambling, though that surely may motivate some. but others fret that increasing the casino competition will only drive struggling atlantic city deeper in its hole. others, with good reason, are suspicious of all the rosy promises. and it<u+2019>s just possible that the people of new jersey have come to appreciate that relying on casinos is all too often a cheap substitute for the hard work of making the state more attractive to economic investment. <u+2014>william mcgurn we<u+2019>ll learn tonight if the donald trump<u+2019>s unusual candidacy rejuvenates split-ticket voting, which has been plunging for decades. the prospects for endangered senate republicans such as wisconsin<u+2019>s ron johnson may depend on a revival. mr. johnson was left for dead by the national gop this summer, but he<u+2019>s run a shrewd campaign against russ feingold and narrowed the gap to a statistical toss-up in a state that tends to break for democrats in presidential election years. this week craig gilbert of the milwaukee journal sentinel published a fascinating dissection of the authoritative marquette polls suggesting that 2016 could be the first year since 1968 that wisconsin votes for a president and senator from different parties. the johnson-feingold race is a rerun of their 2010 contest. no senator returned to private life has won a direct rematch since 1934. <u+2014>joseph rago another sign from the early exits: the black vote is a larger share of the electorate, at 12%, than many people expected. that share was 13% in 2012 and 2008 with barack obama at the top of the ticket. but one question is whether it would fall back down to pre-obama numbers of 11% in 2004 and 10% in 2000. so far the answer is no, which bodes well for hillary clinton. she is winning the black vote in the early exits by 87% to 8%, mr. obama won the black vote 93% to 6% in 2012. <u+2014>paul a. gigot one early sign of trouble for donald trump in the early exit polls is that the white share of the overall electorate is down, and mr. trump is getting a smaller share of that vote than mitt romney did in 2012. the early exits show the white vote is 70% of the electorate, down from 72% in 2012. that decline is roughly what most demographers have expected. mr. trump is getting 55% of those white voters, while mr. romney finished with 59% of the white vote. the early exits are often wrong, and they don<u+2019>t include people who vote after work. but both numbers will have to build if mr. trump is going to win. <u+2014>paul a. gigot welcome to the journal editorial page<u+2019>s live chronicle of 2016<u+2019>s final curtain. my colleagues and i will be flagging and discussing what we find important, intriguing or maybe even amusing as the trump-clinton campaign comes, finally, to an end. we<u+2019>ll be observing congressional races too, with control of the senate to be decided by races that are virtually tied in six states. this story will be updated continuously as the evening rolls on, so please refresh frequently. you can also receive updates on our facebook page or twitter feed . the first polls close at 6, and we<u+2019>ll be watching for as late as the evening goes. <u+2014>joseph rago
election day 2016: commentary and analysis from wsj opinion - wsj
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