this article is part of the opinion today newsletter. you can sign up here to receive more briefings and a guide to the section daily in your inbox. first, i encourage you to check our opinion report frequently throughout the day. our op-ed columnists and contributors will be writing all day about the results. now, let me tell you how i plan to watch election night: i start the night believing that the polls are correct and that hillary clinton is poised to win by roughly the same comfortable electoral college margin as president obama did in 2012. all night, i<u+2019>ll be looking for ( and worried about ) signs that the polls are wrong. for starters, i<u+2019>ll be checking the prediction markets at predictwise pretty frequently. donald trump starts the day with an 11 percent chance of victory. if that starts to change, it means bettors are seeing signs <u+2014> such as exit polls or turnout numbers <u+2014> that they consider meaningful. once polls start closing, i<u+2019>ll largely ignore virginia (where polls close at 7 p.m., and all times here are eastern) at first, because it counts votes slowly and democrats always trail early. instead, i<u+2019>ll look to florida (8 p.m.) and north carolina (7:30 p.m.). they both had a lot of early voting, which means they can report results quickly. trump needs florida if not both states. next, i<u+2019>ll turn to the states clinton should be winning, like pennsylvania (8 p.m.), michigan (polls start closing at 8 p.m.) , wisconsin (9 p.m.), colorado (9 p.m.), nevada (10 p.m.). the most plausible razor-thin clinton victory has her winning all of those as well as virginia (while losing new hampshire, florida, ohio and north carolina). if she can pick off florida, ohio or north carolina early in the night, the outcome could be clear by 9 p.m. as for the senate, i<u+2019>ll be writing down these eight states (in descending order of democratic victory odds), and keeping in mind that the democrats need at least five, plus the vice presidency, to take control: illinois, wisconsin, pennsylvania, nevada, new hampshire, missouri, north carolina and indiana. one more tip: my friends at the upshot publish the best election-night scoreboard anywhere, because it adjusts vote totals for the parts of the state they<u+2019>re coming from. you can join me on twitter (@dleonhardt) and facebook . i am also writing a daily email newsletter until the election and invite you to subscribe . follow the new york times opinion section on facebook and twitter (@nytopinion).
how i<u+2019>ll watch election night
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