salt lake city<u+2014>april stull is a republican voter in one of the most republican states in the union, but she no longer wants to talk about politics with family and friends. <u+201c>it<u+2019>s uncomfortable,<u+201d> said ms. stull, a 55-year-old mother of seven. <u+201c>even though i naturally want to be republican, based on my experience, there<u+2019>s been a little bit of anxiety to say, <u+2018>yeah, i<u+2019>m voting for trump. <u+2019> <u+201d> while most political prognosticators are closely tracking a familiar group of about 10 presidential battleground states, utah is emerging as one of the most surprising wild cards in the 2016 race. the state hasn<u+2019>t backed a democrat since 1964, and utah gave gop nominee mitt romney his biggest margin of victory in 2012, some 48 points. yet some of donald trump<u+2019>s policy proposals have met with fierce resistance from members of the state<u+2019>s dominant mormon church, and state lawmakers were among the first to call for him to step down as the gop nominee when a video surfaced of him bragging about using his <u+201c>star<u+201d> status to make sexual advances on women. utah. lt. gov. spencer cox said in an interview: <u+201c>donald trump stands for everything i don<u+2019>t.<u+201d> those dynamics are creating space for little-known candidate evan mcmullin , a mormon who attended college in utah and is a former adviser to house republicans. mr. mcmullin, who also worked for the central intelligence agency, is promoting a more traditional gop agenda, and his ties to the nearly 60% of utahns who identify themselves as members of the church of jesus christ of latter-day saints seem to be helping him in polls. a survey released<u+00a0>wednesday<u+00a0>by utah-based y2 analytics showed mr. trump<u+00a0>tied with mrs. clinton at 26%, and mr. mcmullin with 22%<u+2014>even though only half<u+00a0>of those polled recognized his name.<u+00a0> a monmouth university poll of<u+00a0>the state released<u+00a0>thursday<u+00a0>showed mr. trump at 34%, with a 6-point<u+00a0>advantage over mrs. clinton and 14 points ahead of mr. mcmullin. in that<u+00a0>poll, only one-third of voters knew mr. mcmullin. no smaller-party candidate has won a state in a presidential election since segregationist george wallace in 1968. in an interview, mr. mcmullin attributed his relative strength in utah to the state<u+2019>s status as <u+201c>a red state because of principle. it<u+2019>s not a red state because it<u+2019>s<u+00a0>eternally committed to the republican party.<u+201d> beyond mr. trump<u+2019>s crude comments about the treatment of women<u+2014>and the growing accusations of unwelcome sexual contact by him, which he has denied<u+2014>mormon history also plays a role in his relatively weak standing in the state. the religion faced hostility in other states in its early years, and gov. gary herbert strongly denounced mr. trump<u+2019>s proposal late last year to temporarily ban muslims from entering the u.s. mr. trump<u+2019>s hard-line stand against illegal immigration also isn<u+2019>t a natural fit with many lds members. <u+201c>donald trump is the antithesis of mormonism,<u+201d> said quin monson, a political science professor at brigham young university. <u+201c>there<u+2019>s nothing about him that runs parallel to mormon culture or mormon beliefs.<u+201d> the lds church maintains a neutral stance on political candidates, but it encourages its members to vote. a letter sent to all u.s. congregations on oct. 5 from top church leadership told members <u+201c>principles compatible with the gospel may be found in various political parties, and members should seek candidates who best embody those principles.<u+201d> if conservatives in the state split their votes between messrs. trump and mcmullin, it could create a path for mrs. clinton, said mr. monson. as part of its 50-state strategy, the clinton campaign has an office in salt lake city. <u+201c>trump has given us an opportunity to be out there and talk to new voters.<u+201d> said marlon marshall, mrs. clinton<u+2019>s director of state campaigns. her campaign is circulating a <u+201c>mormons for hillary<u+201d> video for sharing on social media, in which prominent utahns<u+2014>including two republican former members of the state legislature<u+2014>read an excerpt of mrs. clinton<u+2019>s book on raising children, <u+201c>it takes a village,<u+201d> over scenes of families playing together and utah mountains. the clinton camp<u+2019>s one full-time staffer in utah is more than what the trump campaign has, but the state<u+2019>s gop office is lined with <u+201c>make america great again<u+201d> signs, and the state party chair james evans says there is no question mr. trump will win utah. the trump campaign didn<u+2019>t respond to requests for comment. <u+201c>utahns are very pragmatic, so at the end of the day, they recognize a vote against donald trump is a vote for hillary clinton, and that is a bridge too far,<u+201d> mr. evans said. write to natalie andrews at natalie.andrews@wsj.com
deep-red utah becomes an election wild card  - wsj
natalie andrews