lbe highest return (and lowest ICOR) may not be optlmal from a humanitarian Point of view. This can happen if a nodern aecEor is pronoted whlch is cloEely linked to the rest of the norld but only narginally supported by other ddrestic Production' A relatively snall proportlon of the population will prosper ehile traditlonal sectors stagnace. of course, the same crade-off exists in developed econornies, lrut the rnuch Lower absolute levels of Per capita incone in lradltional sectora of2. Sinulation results r53. The broad policy assumptions used ln a nunber of traditional,econometricmodels and the suppry-side assur'pt lons noted above read to essentiarry slnilar.long=tern projections, sallent feacures of rrhich are provided in table ji.--ri. oo, grolrth rate for developed couneries i6 proJected to be slightly rnore Ehan3 per cent over the next 15 years. y ft,iE i" conslstent with the Fugi Model,although the latter shons 3.3 pr. "-.nt ln the period lgg5_1990 and 3.1 per cent foE1990-2000' The LrNK forecast terninates in 1990, but towards the. end of the decadehas growth rates only narginally htgher than 3 per cent. rhe grorrth rate fordeveloping countries as a group is 4.2 per cent for the barance of tbe decade and4.6.per cen! during the r990s, wbicb is conslstent with tbe Fugl Model. The LrNKnediun-term forecast is higher, increasing from 4.5 per cent to just below5 per cent' trre onry substantiar difference emerges for tbe pranned econonies ofEastern Europe and the ussR - for ehich the nedium-term r,rNR proJectiois clusteraround 3'2 per cent and,the Fugi uodel projectrons decelerate graduar.ly fron nearry5 per cenr during 1985-1990 to ju6t o.to, i per cenr by 1995-2000r t hile theProjeccion in table 26 is stable at 4 per ceit throughout the perlod 19g5_2000.Since the GEM is a real value rnodel antt tracka novement' of production, 1t projectstbe stability of real production in these countries.
**Analysis**
The text appears to be discussing economic growth and development, with a focus on the potential trade-offs between economic efficiency and humanitarian concerns. It mentions the concept of ICOR (Internal Rate of Return) and discusses the growth rates of different regions, including developing and developed countries, as well as Eastern Europe and the USSR. The text also references a specific model, the Fugi Model, and provides projections for different time periods. Overall, the text seems to be focused on the economic aspects of development, rather than other areas such as natural resources, health, or education.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade