r^rith a gaain surptus might n;t act for the benefit of starving people in dist'ant countries. Their surplus night instead be usedo for exajrpIe t for bilatera-1 bartering for ranr materials, In a somewhat longer perspective' the fertilizer situation vould be a seriau; problem' as the United States and the USSR are naJor proat""t" of fel:tilizers. Even though most of their prod'uction is for domestic ionsurnption, the unavail-ability of large quantities of essential- agriculturaL inputs would be a uore severe problem than the loss of grain surplus nations' because it vould threaten the capability of a1l fertilizer importers to produce food. 2\9. If almost all rnajor nations in Europe were inpaired cr eliminated in addition to the United States and the USSR, an analysis of the consequences on world affairs sounds euphemistic, as there woutd probably be very 1itt1e business to transact ' at least between these regions and the rest of the 1{orld' The econonic importance of these countries to the world co$munity stalds out by noting that together they cculd account for betueen half and two thirds of the world'rs gross national Product and trade. 25O. A major difference in coroparison with the previous scenario is the ir:rpossibility of heavy relief programes for the devastat'ed countries' as the surviving industrialized countries would not possess the capability for such a task. fhls vould be an aggravating circumstance vhich could' fule out any chance of internationat economic i""o,..ty for a long time. !'urthermore, many of the non-belfigerent s would be developing coultries whicb were suppliers ol raw rnaterials and agricultural prod.ucts of l-ess irnmed.iate iruportance after a large nuclear var. These might expect an almost total- cessatj'on of foreign trade' 25I. In addition to this, there uould probably be a totaL breakdovn in the
**Analysis**
The text discusses the potential consequences of a nuclear war on the global economy, focusing on the disruption of food production, trade, and supply chains. It highlights the importance of the United States and the USSR as fertilizer producers and the potential severe impact on food production if they were to be affected. The text also touches on the idea of relief programs and the potential for international economic instability.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade, Humanitarian aid and relief