experienced over the past lO years should recur during the next 15. The cooparigon will indicate the sensitivity of the baseline scenario to Potential shocks' 151. Since this analysls cannot be conveniently executed using standard econonetrtc models, the GEM is used instead, aEsuming that inve'stoent ratlos to GDP and ICgRs will remain a! the 1974-1985 levels. since this scenario is an extraPolation of trends establ-isheal ln the period t9?4-1985, lt provides a rather PeEsinistic vies of the outlook to the year 2000. Holrever ' it should be noted that econodic gronth in 1974-1985 was noE uniformly depressed in all years nor in all countrles. The reqion of South and East Asia naintained a GDP growth rate of 5.7 per cent durlng that perloit, which is very near the long-tern grol/'th rate of 6 Fer cent experlenced in the entire period L955-1985. I52. with these assumptlons about investment and ICORS' eorld GDP grows at less than 3 per cent for the rest of the decade and ah little better than 3 Per cent for the remainder of the century. t{orld trade is also sloter. Since the'recovery is not sustained in the OECD countries ag a nhole' probleme. of lov and abject poverty persist in the developing countrles throughout the proJection perlod. only the region of Soutb and East Asia uouLd continue to develop raPidly, olti ng to an apparent ability to expand even in the face of a generalized vrorld-wide recession, as has been observed over the past few years (see table 27).A/~O/5l9 English Page78 Table27.Projections ofgrowthratesofGaP,levelsofpercapita income andprivate consumption, andincremental capital-output ratios (Lower-growth projections) !I RealGDPgrowthrate (percentage) 1965-1985 1986-1990 1991-2000 Developed market economies 3.2 2.5 2.6 Developing market economies 5.3 3.6 3.9 USSRandEastern Europe 4.8 3.8 3.9 Cbina, Romania and Yugoslavia 6.9 5.3 5.5 LatlnAmerica 4.9 3.3 3.4 Africa 4.2 2.6 2.7 westAsia 5.9 2.6 3.0 SouthandEastAsU 6.0 5.1 5.2
**Analysis**
The text appears to be a discussion of economic projections and trends, specifically focusing on the potential outcomes of various economic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, investment, and trade, over the next few decades. The text also mentions the sensitivity of these projections to potential shocks and the assumption of historical trends continuing into the future. This suggests that the text is primarily concerned with economic development and international trade.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade