140. A1thougb the world-nlde receasion of the e€rly 19A06 ira6 largely Ibusiness-cycle phenodenon intensified by policy trade-offs in maJor developedcountries, lt influenced greatl.y the long-tern grouth prospects of developingcountries. The present section focu6e6 on the implications of the long-terooutlook for two key questions that are central to the world developrnentposstblities over the next 15 years. First, is the outlook Eufficientty robust toallow for reasonable development performance even in the presence of recurringcriaes' like those bhat have arisen from the early 1970s to the present day, or isprogress in the achievement of worrd development aspirations dependent on a etableworld economic evolution, stabllity not unlike the stability of the 1960g? Second,nhat i'nplicatlons are inpried by the long-lerm outlook for the rnternational Development Strategy for Che Third Unit.ed ttaiions Development Decade and for aproapectlve fourth decade? I41. Sub-section B (para6. 146-159) describes tbe first of three Bcenarios, abaseline scenario that essentially reflects the extrapolaEion to the year 2OOOpresent trends and the present consensus oedlum-term outlook from secEion lrr. Troo equivalent sets of policy assurtrptlons, for the ti{o mode16, are presented,lead !o €imllar Long-run projectlons ldith about 3 per cent real growth in thedeveloped market economies and 4 per cent in the devel.opeil planneal econooiea,trade i€ projected to grolr between 4 and 5 per cent to the turn of the century. The developing rnErket economies are projected to experience long-run growth ratesof 4.2 per cent for the balance of the decaale anal 4.6 per cent foE the l99os. I42. llajor long-term Problems lnclude expectations that nominal interest rates wllldecrease so gradually as to remaln above 7 per cent by ttte year 2OOO anite:.pectations that unemployment in Europe will iemain persistently high throughoutthe projection period. (ttore inforoation on the unenployment probleo in thedeveloping countriea is provided in aection V.) In additlon, the absolute level ofreal income per capita in least developed countries renains almost unbellevablyof which norldA/40 /5r9 Engll sh Page 71 lon. fn Africa, for example, nearly half of the countries are projected to have real incone less than $300 per cipita even by the end of the twentieth century. (More lnfornation on the African eituation is found in sectlon vII b€Iow') 143. Sub-seation c (Para6. 160-163) cornpare6 tbe baseline scenario and a
**Analysis**
The text discusses long-term outlook for economic development, growth prospects, and policy implications for developing countries. It presents a baseline scenario and alternative scenarios, highlighting challenges such as high unemployment, low real income per capita in least developed countries, and trade projections. The text focuses on macroeconomic trends and policy assumptions, making it likely to fall under the category of economic development.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade