It would be premature to assume that the performance in real terms would be better during the forthcoming decade than in the previous one. 72. The exceptional rise in the value of markets in which the Fund had invested should be seen in the context of the wide variations in investment returns in the past. In paragraph 6 of his report, the Secretary-General stressed that judicious investment strategy must have a long-term orientation, and that a middle course must be steered between conservatism and speculation in order to achieve the prime objective of preserving the capital of the Fund at the secondary goal of enhancing the investment return. In the short term, investment returns were highly variable from year to year. That was because they were measured not only in terms of dividends and interests, which were reasonably stable, but also in terms of realized capital gains and losses and fluctuations in market values. It was wrong to confuse "total return" with "income return", as many people did, since "income return" did not account for fluctuations in market values. 73. Over the 23-year period for which data was available, the inflation-adjusted return or real return had been about 1.3 per cent a year, which was clearly less than the assumed rate of return of 3 per cent which had been used in the most recent actuarial valuation of the Fund. In recent years that had created the expectation that a return of 3 per cent was a reasonable target against which the actual investment performance of the Fund should be measured. In reality, the real rate of return had been about 2.1 per cent over the past five years, 7.1 per cent over the past three years and just over 23 per cent in 1983. I"' •• A/C.5/38/SR.28 English Page 14 
**Analysis**
The text appears to be discussing the investment performance of a fund, specifically highlighting the importance of a long-term orientation and the distinction between "total return" and "income return". The discussion also mentions inflation-adjusted returns and the comparison of actual returns to assumed rates of return. Given the focus on financial performance and investment strategy, it is likely that the text is related to economic development or industry.

**Category**
Economic development, Industry