1990,theyareinsufficient torestore outputtoitsformergrowthpath. The /...A/ 40 /519 English Page 77 apparently permanent change in the growth Path imPlies that labour denand, nhich fell during past receEsions, rdill remain pernanently louer. Therefore, lt ia not surprising, alEhough it ls troubling' that unemPloyment rates in Europe can be expected to remain persistently high throughout the Projection Period. (See section v for informatlon on the unenployoent Problem in the developlng countries.) Further, under the baseline scenarto' the real per caplta incooe of '!he developlng countries as a group ls Projected to lncrease from about $550 (measured i'n constant 19?5 prlces) ln 1985 to nearly $850 by the year 2000' Moreover, the average real per caplta incone of $850 in the year 2000 for al'l developing countries disguises considerable differences among thoae countries. For example' per capita income in llest Asian countrles is projected as $2,565 by the year 2000, whereas the average for the 49 developing countries ln Afrlca is only about $400, or one sixth of the estitnate for WeBt Asia. The baseline Projectlons also imply declining real income per caplta fot Africa as a whole. Furthermore, within Africa real income i.s projected from as lord as $100 Per capita to as high ag $IO,O00 per capita with population grouth exceeding real incooe growth ln oany countriea, Roughly half of the African countrie6 are projected to have real lncomes less than $300 per capita in the year 2000. c. Iorer-grovtth scena r io 160. This section compares the baseline scenario wlth a loser-growth scenarlo in which the recovery of the OECD countries i5 incomplete and groeth rates e!.perienced during lhe period 19?4-1985 prevait through the year 2000. fhis lorer{roHth scenario, therefore, may be regarded as one that mighh ariae lf shocks of the tyPe
**Analysis**
The text primarily discusses economic trends, projections, and scenarios, focusing on labor demand, unemployment rates, income per capita, and growth rates. It also touches on regional disparities, such as between Africa, West Asia, and other developing countries. The language used is technical and economic in nature, suggesting that the text is concerned with macroeconomic issues rather than other fields.

**Category**
Economic development, Employment