50percentwouldbeusedtoimprove thewelfare ofthepopulation ofthedeveloped countries. Inthedeveloping countries andthecentrally planned economies of Asia,itisassumed thatthefinancial resources freedfromthedefence burden wouldbeusedtoincrease domestic capital investment. Undertheseassumptions, thereisasubstantial increase ingrowthratesrelative tothebaseline growth ratesestimated fortherestofthe1980s. TheGDPgrowthrateofthedeveloping countries wouldbe0.72percenthigherthantheirbaseline rate,andtheGDP growthrateofthedeveloped countries wouldbe0.13percenthigher. I...A!40!5l9 English Page196 403.Inanearlier analysis ofthepossible economic effects ofthearmsraceand disarmament measures, theUnitedNations input-output modeloftheworld economy!21wasusedtoproject global economic prospects totheyear2000under threescenarios, namely, abaseline continued armsrace,anaccelerated armsrace, andmodest disarmament measures including therelease ofsomeresources for reallocation tothedeveloping countries. Thebaseline scenario assumed thatthe sharesofmilitary outlayinGNPandthegeographical distribution ofmilitary industry wouldberoughly thesamethroughout theperiod 1970-2000. The accelerated armsracescenario envisages ahypothetical doubling oftheshareof GOPformilitary outlays bytheyear2000incomparison withthebaseline. The disarmament scenario assumes thatthemilitary spending oftheUnitedStates and theUSSR,asprojected underthebaseline .scenario, wouldfallbyonethirdby1990 andbyafurther onethirdbytheyear2000. Forallotherregions, the projections assumethat,asashareofGNP,theshareofmilitary spending would decline to75percentofthe1970baseline figure by1990andto60percentof thatfigure bytheyear2000. Thedisarmament scenario alsoassumes thatthe relatively wealthy regions oftheworldwouldtransfer afraction oftheir hypothetical savings accrued fromdisarmament tothepoorest regions. 404.Thelong-term projections underthesethreescenarios indicate thatan acceleration ofthearmsracewouldadversely affect economic well-being inall groupsofcountries excepttheoil-producing countries, whichwouldneither lose norgain. Incontrast, thedisarmament scenario wouldresultinglobalgains, including a3.7percentincrease inworldGNPandmorethana 5percentincrease inworldcapital stocks bytheyear2000,incomparison tothebaseline scenario. Itwouldalsoyieldsignificant economic benefits forthepoorest regions ofthe world. 405.Although itistruethatthesegainswouldberealenough,itmustbe recognized thattheyarerelatively modestincomparison withallotherinfluences ontherateofgrowthofGOP.Ifthatratecouldberaised by0.3percentper year,itwouldin15yearsraiseGOPby4.5percentbytheyear2000. 406.Thisisnottosaythatadisarmament scenario wouldnotbringgreatreliefto countries thatcanillaffordthemilitary spending inwhichtheyarepresently engaged. Contrary towidespread beliefs, however, itdoesnotseemtobetruethat disarmament wouldproduce economic miracles unlessitwerefarmoredrastic than assumed inthescenarios. 407.Therealproblem ofthearmsraceseemsrathertobethatatleastsome countries canafforditwithout mucheconomic pain,.whileatthes·ametimeit jeopardizes worldpeaceandsurvival. Thiscompounds ratherthanfacilitates the taskofdisarmament. /...A/40/S19 English Page197 2.Strategy fordisarmament 408.Giventhecontinuing failure oftheinternational community toachieve evena slowdown inthearmsrace,itmaybeofsomeinterest toexamine whythisisso,as allcountries couldbenefit fromaslowdown andevenmorefromamajordegreeof disarmament. Arecountries irrational inengaging inmilitary build-ups oris thereamorefundamental explanation? Aclearunderstanding ofthebasiccausesof thebehavioural pattern. inherent inthearmsraceisessential foreffective recommendations forprogress indisarmament. Thebackground causesofthearms racehavebeenreviewed inconsiderable detailinprevious UnitedNations studies, especially thestudyontherelationship between disarmament andinternational security (~/36/S97) andtheStudyonAllAspects oftheConventional ArmsRaceand onDisarmament relating toConventional Weapons andArmedForces (A/39/348, annex). 409.Asaglobalactivity thearmsraceisirrational, asvirtually everycountry intheworldcontinues toincrease itstotalarmsspending, ratherthanagreeing to reduceit.Yetdecisions aboutnational expenditures aremadebyableand competent people. Thebasicproblem ofthearmsraceisthatinattempting to enhance theirOwnsecurity, manycountries builduptheirarmaments inwaysthat
**Analysis**
The text appears to be discussing the potential economic effects of disarmament and the arms race, including the impact on global GDP, capital stocks, and economic growth rates. The focus is on the macroeconomic level, with no specific attention to natural resources, agriculture, or environmental issues. The discussion is centered around international relations, security, and the allocation of resources, which suggests that the primary category is related to international relations or economics.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade