one uses practically the existing model of development, which has a dialectical character. This method can be used also for long­ term prognoses. However, It Is clear that the first and second methods are designed for prognosticating Individual phenomena that are not compl lcated. In this sense the second group of methods Is a certain source of Information for the first group. The third method Is a certain variety of the first two ones. The third group, which Is a group of methods of heuristic prognostication, Inclu-des a tremendous number of methods that are founded on Intuition. 19-2 281 In essence, alI these methods are estimates. The following methods are the ones In this group: -the Delphi method, -the Glushkov method, -the Pattern method. varieties of expert most characteristic Whan analysing the phenomena, prognosticated with the aim of elaborating the Complex Program, we observe their sense difference and different complexity (In the system-technical sense). Hence, when doing this analysis, It Is ncessary to employ different methods of prognostication. It Is possible by means of the three groups of methods I lsted earlier. The most strict scientific methods are the simulation methods that enable by means of computers to consider a great number of factors In the models, rendering effect on the final results of the Investigations. These methods per~lt to change one or the other factors In the model and to produce different variants of the prognosis. The state of the development of these models Is characterised by the model of global development up to the year 2025, elaborated by Mesarovlch and Peste!. This model comprises more than 100,000 equations. The second group of statistical methods Is used to extrapolate the existing regularities for the future. These methods produce considerable errors In the presence of factors, 
**Analysis**
The text discusses various methods of prognostication, including simulation methods and statistical methods, with a focus on long-term development. The mention of a "Complex Program" and a model of global development up to the year 2025 suggests that the topic is related to planning and forecasting in a broader context, rather than a specific sector or field.

**Category**
Science and technology, Industry