for Africa's exports will rise with p0sitive consequences for its oil and other mineral prcxlucti on and for aqricul tural exports. On the other hand it is assumed that 1983 \Jill be a "normal" year as far as aqriculture is concerned, that is qrowinq at a rate around the averaqe for the period 1975-1981. It is assumed fur­ ther that qovernment policy will conform to the course appearinq in budqet estimates for 1983 and that current adjustment proqram­ mes will be maintained and that more qoverments v:ill introduce austerity measures. 25 E/ECA/CM.9/5 35. On the basis of the assumptions just outlined and the under­ lying trend in consumption the growth of GDP would be moderate in 1983. The ECA secretariat forecasts that the 0.3 per cent drop in 1982 in the output of its 50 member States will be fOllowed by a 2.3 per cent growth in real GDP this year. !I 36. The over-all projections for the level of economic growth conceal substantial differences between the region's three economic groups (see table III.E.l). More dynamic growth is ex­ pected in the countries of North Africa while sane sub-Saharan countries are in a situation even more desperate than a year ago. Fer them, development in the immediate future depends very much on external factors. 37. Prospects for major oil-exporting countries are predicted on the expectation of a moderate upturn in the world oil demand in 1983, which would allow a sliqht recovery in exports in,quantity. However, the oil income of the African members of OPEC is expec­ ted to fall by 10 per cent to $ 31 bill ion in 1983. The terms of trade loss for this group of countries is estimated at $11.6 bil­ lion at 1980 prices. The purchasing pOIIler of experts ~1ill con­ tinue to fall. 
**Analysis**
The text primarily discusses the economic prospects of Africa, focusing on the growth of GDP, trade, and the impact of external factors on the region's economy. The text also touches on the performance of specific sectors such as agriculture, oil, and mineral production. The language used is technical and economic, with a focus on statistical data and projections.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade