with demand fer oil qrowinq by 10 per cent. It is na'i clear from the latest available information that production quotas are. not qoinq to increase very much for OPEC oil exporters, as consider­ able uncertainty persists concerninq thee perforl!'ance of the econcrnies of OECO members, and particularly the United States, the larqest economy in the qroup. 10. Consequently, ECA is workinq en two see na ri os as far as the prospects for 1983 are concerned. Accordinq to the first, optimistic scenario based on a modest recovery in OECO countries, the whole of the mini no sector, taki nq tcqether oil and other ex­ portable minerals, will qrow at a rate of 6 per cent in 1983. vlith a normal aqricultural year and a pick-up in world demand for African exports, rna nufacturinq production will recover from the slump experienced in 1981-1982, since supplies of raw materials and other inputs will improve. This would indicate a qrowth rate of about 6 per cent fer the industrial sector. Consequently,. the over-all rate of qrcwth of GOP would be around 3-4 per cent in 1983, after tw.o consecutive years of decline. But even this optinistic scenario would qive a per £~E~~~ GOP in 1983 lower in real terms than the 1980 fiqure. 11. The second ECA scerario is net so optir.tistic. It nON seems that the prospects for a recovery in the OECO economies in are increasinqly dim. In fact, th~re is a stronq likelihood of continued staqnation•in OECO in 1983, \oJith nc recovery in demand for Africa's experts. If that was to be the case, the mininq sectcr would staqna te, as would tradi ticnal aqricul tural exports: the manufacturinq sectcr would also be urable to recover, since it \lould continue to suffer frcm the current shcrtaqes of 'spare 
**Analysis**
The text appears to be discussing economic trends and projections, specifically in relation to oil demand, production, and the impact on various sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture. The language used is technical and focused on economic indicators, suggesting a strong connection to economic development and international trade.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade