the donors' cNP as in L984. In addition. it is assumed that OPEC oil prices will, to a large extent, be related to the inflation ratea, econonlc grolrth rates and the e*change rates of l0 selected developed countries' and that the prlce index for non-oi1 primary commodities will be a function of the weighted average export price index of developed countries, lheir economic grosth rates and the united states short-term interest rate- 4., In the "loer' growth scenario of the World Bank, it is assumed that the lndustrial countries will grow by only 2.5 per cent a year between 1985 and 1995, rdith adverse implications for trade and aid florrs affecting the developing countriest an average inflation rate in developed counEries at 6 per cent a year, and a real interest rate of 3.5 per cent, resulting in a nominal interest rate of 9.5 per cent. In the Bankrs I'hiqhn growth scenario, the GDP growlh of developed countr i€s tdill be at 4.3 per cent a year, inflaeion would -average 3.5 per cent, and nominal and real lnterest rates nould be 6.0 and 2.5 per cent resPectively. 5. In the "base" scenario of IMF, it is assumed thaE real cNP in the industrial countries will grow at 3.25 per.cent annually during L986-1990t import prices of manufactures are projected on the basis of assumptions about inflation in develoPed countriesl the prlce of petroleum nill remaln constant in dollar terns in 1985 and constant in real terms thereafteri prices of primary csmrmdities are projected so as to leave the terns of trade of non-oil exporting developing countries unchanged, interest rates on commercial credits to developing countries 6re assumed to reRain unchanged in 1985, to be 2 per cent lower in 1985 and 198?, antl to be an adtlitional I per cent lower in 1988-1990t the leveL of severity of tr€de restrictions agsinst
**Analysis**
This text appears to be a discussion of economic projections and assumptions, focusing on the relationships between economic indicators such as inflation rates, growth rates, and interest rates. The text also mentions the impact of these assumptions on trade and aid flows between developed and developing countries. Given the emphasis on economic indicators and international trade, it is likely that the text is related to economic development and international trade.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade