of 1.7 per cent in 1981, and the forecast for 1982 is only 2.8 per cent. Not only has the performance of aqriculture in these countries been very poor in the last two or three years, but in­ dustrial production has slumped. The eastern European economies are relatively independent of the world market, and structural factors are therefore decisive. Their economies have become mere complex and diversified, and it appears that the pattern of in­ dustrialization they have followed up to now is no lonqer ap­ propriate, and that shortaqes of manpower and raw materials are constraininq them. Durinq the 1970s, there was a substantial in­ crease in their trade with OECD countries, as well as in their borrawinq on international financial markets. \'lith 1 ower inter­ national demand, they have resorted to cuttinq down on imports in order to mi tiqa te payments problems, and this has contributed to their la..rer rate of output qrowth. For those which are not oil producers, the raisinq of Soviet oil prices to world levels has restrained qrowth, and e ne rqy shortaqes have appeared. There are no immediate prospects of a return to the hiqh rates of qrcwth recorded in the past; one indication of this is the cut-back on investment in development plans. 11 E/ECA/CM.9/5 B. Trade 9. Reflectinq the depression in the world economy, trade volume remained staqnant in 1981 and is expected to qrow by only 2 per cent in 1982. Primary commodity prices fell with lower demand, the decline affectinq practically all primary commodities, as well as manufactured qoods. The averaqe f.o.b. export prices fer crude oil, which in 1980 rose by 65.8 per cent to$31.5 a barrel, rose by 11.4 per cent to$ 35.1 in 1981 but fell back to$ 33.9 in 
**Analysis**
The text primarily discusses the economic performance of Eastern European countries, highlighting the decline in agricultural and industrial production, trade volume, and commodity prices. It also mentions the impact of international factors such as oil prices and trade with OECD countries on their economies. The text does not address issues related to natural resources, environment, healthcare, education, employment, humanitarian aid, or culture.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade