lnql ish Annex Page 31 : on the planet. The tlifference in the known reserves and the resource base of 21 inpo-rtant minerals varies by a factor of 10 to 20' but the life exPectancy in each ca6e is estirnated to alter substantially under a 2 to l0 per cent increase ln the present levels of production (see table 3). 65.Boththoser.'hoseenoconstraintsinthenearfutureandthosewho!'arnthat the world is running out of its resources agree that the life expectancy of several strategic ninerals - cruciaL both for civllian and nilitary uses - dePends upon the present and future patterns of consumption antl utilization of those minerals. They also adnit lhat an absence of physical limits on global reserves does not Preclude conditions of economic scarcit| ind steeply rising costs for some Parts of the world due to tbeir geographic distribution and the fact that patterns of consumption do not correspona to the geograPhic location of reserves' Finally' neither optimist nor pess-ismists rule out the possibility of a severe economic dislocation which rnay occur in the event of a rnajor vtar, serious poJ'itical rifts between the centres of consumption and geographic reserves' social uplteavals and civil unrest mainly in the oti- or othei mi.ner als-Produc ing regions' 317 56. rn the absence of reliable alata, it is arifficult to estinate the nagnitude of clains which future increases in mili.tary consumPtion will have on the life exDectancv of qlobar fuel and non-fuel mineral resources' Buc it does not require ;-J;;i;;'" lL.lii. "t the presenr patrerns of consumprion ro concrude rhat minerar resource shares would be consumeal in greater proportions if the arms race were to escalate further. The increasing emphasis on the qualitative asPects of sophisticated vteaponry implied a gradual decrease in consumPtion of such basic
**Analysis**
The text discusses the availability and consumption of natural resources, specifically mineral resources, and its impact on the economy and potential conflicts. It highlights the differences in reserves and resource base, the impact of increased production on life expectancy, and the potential for economic dislocation and social unrest. The text also touches on the military consumption of resources and its potential escalation.

**Category**
Natural resources and environment, Economic development