-2.O 3.73.1 2.A0.5 r.3 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 -0 .53.5 5.5 -4.6 -I.3 -1.4 -2.6 3.7 5.2 2.8 4 .l 8.3 9.1 0.6 2.64.5 6.5 5.8 2.3 2.9 1.5 5.2 L.Z 2.6 5.5 3.6 12.0 4.42.9 3.9 2.3 3.5 3.1 t.l 2.8 4.6 4.0 6.92.2 2.6 3.7 1.2 1.5 0.6 5.3 -1.0 0.5 4.3 3.3 8.2 2.6 lleoorandum itema t Viorld exportE (real) Developed oarket econooies fnflatton ratesr.5 -0. I-2.5 2.O L2.9tt. 56.9 2.8 Unemployment ratea S.g9.1 6.77.2 8.05.3 8.65.0 8.?4.5 8.76.2 8.1 sourcet Departnent of fntern€tional Econooic and Social Affairs of the UnitedNabions secretariat, based on data froo national and internatlonal sources,lncluding projectlons of project LINX for 1985. !/ Covers USSR, Ecstern European countriea and China. bJ Represent weighted averagea, the iweightsi uEeal being: alevelopeat marketeconomies 0-6565r developing countrles 0.14941 centrally planned economl.es o.l85l.A/40/519 English page27 59.Atroot,thepoorgrowthperformance ofdeveloping countries iscaused bythe economic slumpoftheindustrialized world. GrowthinOECD-themainsourceof demandforthirdworldexports -wasfairlysteadyinthe1960s,butfluctuated violently inthe1970sand1980sinthewakeoftheglobalrecessions. Adeeper trendwasthedecline ingrowthinproductivity intheindustrialized economies. Productivity increases started toslowseveral yearsbefore1973andhaveyetto recover. 60.Thetermsoftradebetween imports andexports ofdeveloping countries -the keydeterminants oftheirshort-run tradeaccount -followed acomplicated trajectory. Theyhitalong-term peakafterthe1973oilpricerise,butwentdown violently following the1979inCrease andremained lowthrough 1984.Thislong pricetroughhasledsomeobservers todetectasecular deterioration inthird worldexportprices. Thefactors influencing thetermsoftradearecomplex ­ cycleandgrowthintheOECDcountries, supplychanges andthestrength ofthe dollar (sincemostprimary commodity pricesaredenominated inthatcurrency) -and forecasting long-term shiftshasprovedimpossible inthepast.However, forthe immediate futuretherearefewsignsthatthetermsoftradewillstrongly recover. Fiveto10yearsoflowpricesareanominous portent forthirdworld Primary commodity exporters. 61.Thesuddenriseinexternal debtofthedeveloping countries wasthemost publicized economic eventofthelate1970sandearly1980s-the"crisis" which beganin1982stilldominates financial markets. Themanoeuvres ofthecreditors anddebtors -"moneycenter" banksandcountries suchasArgentina, Brazil, Mexico, andtheRepublic ofKorea-havebeendocumented inthepress. Theplightof smaller, poorerborrowing countries islesswell-known. Theirfuturepossibilities forgrowth, highlydependent onthedeployment ofimported machinery andequipment, arecorrespondingly dim. 62.Improvements inredressing external imbalances ofsomemajordebtorcountries weremadein1984,through acombination ofimportcutsandexportexpansion, with limited success inimportsubstitution. These,however, maynotprove sustainable. Forsomecountries inthegroup,theratioofdebtservice toexports wasover50percent.Withhighrealinterest ratesandastrongdollar, the debt-service burdenwillcontinue tobethemainconstraint ongrowthinthemedium term. 63.Thesituation inAfricadeserves 'special mention. Itseconomic crlS1Sisdue, amongotherfactors, toweakworlddemandforprimary commodities, deterioration in commodity termsoftrade,slowdown inthegrowthofexternal aidandcapital inflows, andthreeconsecutive yearsofdrought. Anumberofcountries inthe regionhavebeguntoputmoreemphasis Onagriculture byadopting policymeasures,
**Analysis**
The text primarily discusses economic trends and issues, specifically focusing on the economic performance of developing countries, international trade, and the impact of global events on their economies. It also touches on the topics of debt, growth, and development. Given the emphasis on economic themes, it is likely that the text falls under one or more categories related to economics.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade