economic policies, while developinq countries pressed for ne\v resources fer balance-of-payments financinq. D. Prospects 20. ~'lith enerqy prices stable or in sliqht decline, and no prospects of a rise in the near future, recovery in the short term hinqes on developments in the major market economies, and particularly the United States. In this respect, the recent falls in interest ar.d inflation rates are a positive siqn. But a stronq recovery does not appear probable qiven the constraints operatinq at the present time. OECD expects qrowth to pick up by only 2.5 per cent in 1983, siqnificantly less than the United Na­ tions Secretariat projection of 3.3 per cent. 1/ The present policies of monetary restraint are clearly not conducive to rapid expansiqn, but no substitute policy is available, since demand stimulation or reflation will inevitably rekindle inflation without makinq any inrcads on unemployment. 21. For developinq countries, recovery depends in larqe measure on trends in the developed market economies, since it is they which determine the level of derna nd for impcrts and serve as the major source of finance. At the same time, performance will vary qreatly between countries, and if most oil exporters will experie nee an inevitable drop in qro..1th and development expendi­ ture, in other reqions much will depend on the internal adjust­ ment measures the countries are taki nq or plan to take. These measures of necessity include an end to fiscal expansion anc1 an effort to restore external bala nee, and this means that a return in the short term to the relatively hiqh rate of output qrowth of 1971-1980 may be discounted. 22. In the lonqer term, a resumption of qrowth in the developed market economies will require a revival of investrent, and consequently a moderation of waqe demands and of qrowth in 
**Analysis**
The text discusses economic policies, growth rates, and the impact of monetary restraint on the economy. It also touches on the relationship between developed and developing countries, highlighting the importance of external factors in determining the economic prospects of developing countries. Based on these themes, it is likely that the text falls under the category of economic development.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade