average, in the 1981-1983 period, they represented 8.3 per cent of total financial flows to developing countries. For low-income countries, export credits represent the major source of commercial or quasi-commercial finance. 102. The prospects for each of these three main components of non-concessional flows are either highly uncertain or not at all reassuring. Commercial bank lending is expected to grow in the remainder of the decade but the range of estimates is unusually wide. International secretariats indicate a most likely growth range of 6 to 7 per cent, but recognize that, under "worse policies" scenarios, bank lending might increase by only slightly more than 3 per cent. Under a "better policies" scenario, bank lending could increase by as much as 10 per cent. The international banking community, however, has repeatedly stressed that concern over capital adequacy and risk concentration will limit the ability of banks to extend substantial new loans to developing countries for some years to come, emphasizing the need for those countries to find ways to tap other sources of funds. 103. Private direct foreign investment increased at an average annual rate of 10.6 per cent a year in dollar terms between 1960 and 1981, but has fallen substantially since then. International secretariats expect at least the restoration of the "historical" rates for the remainder of the decade of 11 per cent per year with an increase to 12.5 per cent under some sort of "better policies" scenario. Applied to 1983 figures, those rates of growth indicate the expectation of foreign direct investment flows in the range of $17.5 to $19.5 billion in 1990, slightly more than double the present flows. 104. Export credits are even harder to project. As noted by international secretariats the risk of discontinuities are high given the commercial and political priorities of governments and the fact that promoting development is not 
**Analysis**
The text primarily discusses the financial flows to developing countries, specifically the trends and prospects of commercial bank lending, private direct foreign investment, and export credits. The focus is on the economic development of these countries, highlighting the uncertainty and challenges in accessing these financial flows. The text does not mention specific sectors like agriculture, forestry, or fishing, nor does it discuss humanitarian aid or relief. The themes of economic development, international trade, and finance are prominent throughout the text.

**Category**
Economic development, International trade