situation in the industrialized countries and the qrowino impor­ tance attached to political considerations rather than purely humanitarian factors. 7. The current pricinq p0licies in many African countries;. which tend to subsidize urban dwellers at the expense of rural communities, place a major constraint on the development of a virile and dynamic food and aqriculture sector. These pricinq policies have two adverse effects: First, unfavourable price levels at the farm qate discouraqe investment and depress produc­ tivity levels; secondly, the subsidies result in the distortion of economic priorities, eatino habits and investment policies. The cumulative consequences of these policies are a worseninq of the rural-urhan terms of trade; staqnant, if not declininq, rural investment and productivity; and massive rural-urban miqration. 4 E/ECA/CM.9/S B. Africa's eccncrnic pro~pects_in_!_98~ 8. The prosp~cts for the African economy in 1983 are depen­ dent, on the one hand, en the strenqth of the recovery in the OECD economies, which are Africa's main trade partners and sour­ ces of capital inflows, and, on the other hand, on the beha-viour of aqriculture and the success of internal adjustrrent pclicies beinq applied by many Governments. Aqriculture in Africa is very sensitive to climate but, en the basis of present trends and the present mix of public policies, we may reasonably expect in 1983 a qrcwth rate of production whch would be in line with the averaqe trend of the 1970s, that is 2-2.5 per cent. But even this modest forecast may turn out to be rather optimistic, since the very lcM expert prices for cash crops may have had a depress­ inq influence on production. 9. For mininq, the level of external demand will be the key factor. The mid-1982 forecast was that the OECO economies will qra1 by 2.5 per cent in 1983 after only 0.5 per cent in 1982, 
**Analysis**
The text discusses the economic prospects of Africa in 1983, highlighting the challenges faced by the agricultural sector, the impact of pricing policies on rural communities, and the dependence of the African economy on external factors. The text also touches on the importance of internal adjustment policies and the sensitivity of agriculture to climate. These themes suggest that the category should focus on economic development and agriculture.

**Category**
Economic development, Agriculture, forestry and fishing