238. i{heaeas nany physical and bioJ-ogical effects of nuclear }rar can be identifieda.nd to some extent investigated, the worl-d.-wide economic and social disruptlonthat wou-ld be an r.mavoidable consequence of a large nuclear var is more difficrltto exanine. Todayrs r,rorld is characterized by a laxge and increasing international 26/ K-rakat oa is a sna11 volcanic isl_and. in thecompletely blovn to pieees by underwater exllosionsAurusr IBAJ. This is the Largest recorded irotcanicSunda Straits which was aLmost when the volcano erupted an event .A/35 /392 Eegl ish Annex rase oo i nterdepend ency. A substantial number of inxnortant products are made up of parts and components from a1l- over the world. I'inancially, the business activitiesin various countrics arc hi.-hly interrelated Lhrouch agreements as r,rell as flows of currencies and credits. And the nuclear Por"/ers are also the ma-ior nodes in this internat ional netr./ork of trad.e. 239. To rlescribe coherently even the main effects of a faxge nuclear war on the economic and social r+or1d situation is not possible. In this contexh it seensparticu-Iarly prudent to luote the 0ffice of Technology Assessnent report nentionedpreviously: rrthe effects of a nuclean war that cannot be calculated are at least as ir0portant as those for lrhich calculations are atter:pteC.'t Sone general ideas could be inferred fron the study of past r,rar s as arell as of peacetime crises; examDles in the laLter category vould include the collapse of the United States stock narket in 1929, but a-Iso recent distress situations such as those folJ-oving the videspread crop failures in 1972 and I97l+. Hovever, historical evidence dwindles besid.e the possible aftermath of a large nuclear var. 2)rO. An analys-is of rhe consequences for ',rorld trade in general and supplyof essential cornmod ities in particular lrould have to tahe into account both