submarj-ne bases rnight use air bursts, and, to the extent that these facilities I,Iere located close to popu-lation centres, blast and thexmal- effects wou].d cause considerable colfateral d.amaqe in such areas,A1351392 English Annex Fage 78 e ai g I.: o tIt l,Ato E 3!2 a B Ei> H'n AEEPl !av EI|l 819 "l'A/35 /392 rnq_L1sn Annex Paee 79 2l-8. The Office of Technology Assessment stutly published in 1979 (see Fara. 172above ) quotes united states Government stuaies indicating that between 2 nilr-ionand 20 rnillion Americans wou-ld- be kilr-ed within 30 days after a counter-siloattack on the United states rcBM sites. Another r""..rt utl,dy 20/ states that ina count'exfofce attack on the united states, B to 12 nir-r-ion r.tarities -woura resul-t if the attack occurred without ru."rrirrg and 5 to B million rataiities itthere was warning. The 0TA study conclud"" ih.t a comprehensive counterforceattack on the united. states wourd. p"oduce about 1)+ miriio; a""a-."."--ii "n"present fallout shelter capability r,rere utilized. According to the saue source,a united states co'nterforce strike against the ussR wo'1d result in soue{hatsirnil-ar n,mb ers of casualties, i.e., irom 2 nillion to fo milr-ion people killedin a counter-silo strike and 2 nilr-ion to t3 rair-r-ion in a furl counterforcestrik€. The naJolity of fatalities within 30 days in a counterforce attackwould be caused. by radiation due to early fal-lout fron surface bursts. 2r9 ' Tn the studies referre. to above, extensive she.lteri.ng of the civilianPopuLation is assurned- An uninte*upted. stay in shelter during several reekskrould be required to avoid. sti11 larger casualties. This roul-d_ cause seriousprobleros of sanitation, food. and water supply, air filtration, health,conmunieation to the outer wor]d, psychofogi"af tensi.ons " etc. Longer periodsof outdoor stay could be considered ttsafe under the circumstances,' after thesefirst weeks, but even after 2 to 3 months the radiation levels would stilf befar higher than t'saferf peacetine .1evel_s.