transfers) peryear,whichisstillsignificantly largerthantheaverage annual deficit of$9.3billion during 1981-1984. Theexpected deficit onthisaccountis almostthesameasthemerchandise deficit ($33.2billion peryear). Duringthe period1985-1990 netinterest payments areprojected tobe$56.6billion peryear, substantially largerthantheannuallevelof$35.7·billion during 1981-1984, and appeartodominate theinvisible account deficit oftheseeconomies. Theincrease intheirexternal debtthrough postponement ofprincipal repayment combined with. theexpected accumulation ofcurrent accountdeficit, aswellastheirexpected reServe build-Up, seemtomorethanoffsetthefavourable effect fromthereduced shareofvariable rateshort-term commercial loansandimproved financial termson theoutstanding debt. Shouldinterest ratesdecline significantly inthefuture, however, thisdeficit wouldbemoderated. Netreceipts forotherservices and private transfers areexpected toremainstablethrough theendofthedecade. It isestimated tobe$17.2billion peryearontheaverage duringtheperiod 1985-1990, compared with$16.5billion peryearduringtheperiod1981-1984. Given themodestprospects fortheexportearnings oftheoilexporters, onemajor component oftheinvisible account, labourers' wages,islikelytocontinue its stagnation. 110.Thecurrent account balance oftheoil-exporting developing countries is projected tobeadeficit ofabout$18.2billion peryearontheaverage duringthe period 1985-1990 compared withanaverage surplus of$1.1billion during 1981-1984 (table19).Thisprojected deficitismainlyduetotheexpected sluggish growth inexportrevenues of5.9percentperyear(2.9percentinvolumeand 3.0percentinprice)during1985-1990. Itreflects theexpected moderation of global economic activity, thelikelycontinuation ofenergy-saving efforts, increase inoilsupply byotheroilproducers (oil-producing developed countries andotheroil-producing developing countries) aswellasexpected sluggish oil prices. Rapidinventory build-up byoil~consuming countries andthesignificant contributions ofthatbuild-Up totheoilexportrevenues arelesslikelyaslong asthestorage cost(interest rate)remains high. Theaverage annualexport revenue corresponding totheabovegrowthratewouldbe$245.2billion, asagainst I...A/40/519 English Page52 $233.6billion during1981-1984. Theaverage annualimportbillofthe oll-exporting developing countries isexpected tobeabout$192.6billion during 1985-1990 compared with$155.5billion duringtheperiod1981-1984. This corresponds toanincrease intheaverage annualrateofimportvalueof 9.6percent(5.7percentinvolumeand3.9percentinprice)duringtheperiod 1985-1990. Thegrowthrateofimportvolumewasfarbelowtherateof 14.8percentrecorded inthe1970s. Owingtothepayment constraints facedby theseeconomies, theirimports willcontinue toberestrained forsometimetocome (especially thelowabsorbers), although toalesserdegreethanintherecent past.Withtheirimportbillgrowing slightly fasterthantheirexportrevenue, theresulting average annualtradebalance wouldbe$52.6billion, asignificant decline fromthe$78.1billion during 1981-1984. withinvestment incomereceipts offsetting thesubdued outflow oflabourers' wages,theinvisible account balance ofthesecountries (excluding official transfers) isassumed toremainclosetothe average annuallevelof$70.8billion during1981-1984, resulting inacurrent accountdeficit of$18.2billion. 3.External debtanddebtservice Ill.Thecurrent account deficit ofnon-oil exporting developing countries is projected toaverage $62.5billion (including official transfers) peryearduring theperiod1985-1990. Allowing forareasonable build-up ofinternational. resources, theywillneednetflowsofexternal finance wellinexcessofthe principal repayment obligation ontheiralready existing debts. Assuming thatall oftheamortizations ontheirexternal debtsarerescheduled, thetotaloutstanding external debtofnon-oil exporting developing countries asawholewouldgrow 9.3percentperyearduringtheperiod 1985-1990 compared with13.0percentper yearduringtheperiod1979-1984. Thedebt-export ratioduring 1985-1990 would become187.3percentontheaverage, whichislargerthanthe111.1percent experienced in1979-1984 (table20). 112.Therecentconclusion ofmUlti-year rescheduling arrangements forMexico