lbe highest return (and lowest ICOR) may not be optlmal from a humanitarian Point of view. This can happen if a nodern aecEor is pronoted whlch is cloEely linked to the rest of the norld but only narginally supported by other ddrestic Production' A relatively snall proportlon of the population will prosper ehile traditlonal sectors stagnace. of course, the same crade-off exists in developed econornies, lrut the rnuch Lower absolute levels of Per capita incone in lradltional sectora of2. Sinulation results r53. The broad policy assumptions used ln a nunber of traditional,econometricmodels and the suppry-side assur'pt lons noted above read to essentiarry slnilar.long=tern projections, sallent feacures of rrhich are provided in table ji.--ri. oo, grolrth rate for developed couneries i6 proJected to be slightly rnore Ehan3 per cent over the next 15 years. y ft,iE i" conslstent with the Fugi Model,although the latter shons 3.3 pr. "-.nt ln the period lgg5_1990 and 3.1 per cent foE1990-2000' The LrNK forecast terninates in 1990, but towards the. end of the decadehas growth rates only narginally htgher than 3 per cent. rhe grorrth rate fordeveloping countries as a group is 4.2 per cent for the barance of tbe decade and4.6.per cen! during the r990s, wbicb is conslstent with tbe Fugl Model. The LrNKnediun-term forecast is higher, increasing from 4.5 per cent to just below5 per cent' trre onry substantiar difference emerges for tbe pranned econonies ofEastern Europe and the ussR - for ehich the nedium-term r,rNR proJectiois clusteraround 3'2 per cent and,the Fugi uodel projectrons decelerate graduar.ly fron nearry5 per cenr during 1985-1990 to ju6t o.to, i per cenr by 1995-2000r t hile theProjeccion in table 26 is stable at 4 per ceit throughout the perlod 19g5_2000.Since the GEM is a real value rnodel antt tracka novement' of production, 1t projectstbe stability of real production in these countries.