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Hot n Cold
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"Hot n Cold"
Single by Katy Perry
from the album One of the Boys
Released
September 9, 2008 (2008-09-09)
Format
Digital download
CD single
Recorded
December 2007
Studio
Dr. Luke's Studios, Legacy Recording Studio (New York City, New York, US)
Conway Recording Studio (Hollywood, California, US)
Genre
Pop
dance-pop
Length
3:40
Label
Capitol
Songwriter(s)
Katy Perry
Lukasz Gottwald
Max Martin
Producer(s)
Dr. Luke
Benny Blanco
Katy Perry singles chronology
"I Kissed a Girl"
(2008) "Hot n Cold"
(2008) "Thinking of You"
(2009)
"I Kissed a Girl"
(2008) "Hot n Cold"
(2008) "Thinking of You"
(2009)
Music video
"Hot n Cold" on YouTube
"Hot n Cold" is a song by American singer Katy Perry. The song was written by Perry, Dr. Luke, and Max Martin and produced by Dr. Luke and Benny Blanco for her second studio album, One of the Boys (2008). The track was released as the album's second single on September 9, 2008. The lyrics address an unstable romantic relationship caused by a partner's mood swings.
The song reached number three on the Billboard Hot 100, becoming Perry's second consecutive top three single, following "I Kissed a Girl". It also became Perry's second top five single in the United Kingdom, Australia, Ireland and New Zealand, and topped the charts in Finland, Germany, Canada, Norway, Spain, and Denmark, among others. To date, "Hot n Cold" has sold over 5.7 million copies in the US, making it one of Perry's highest-selling singles in the nation.
To promote "Hot n Cold", Perry marked the song's live debut with a performance on NBC's Today. She also performed the song at the 2008 MTV Europe Music Awards, which she hosted. The song's music video, which was directed by Alan Ferguson, was released on October 1, 2008, and features Perry as a bride who is about to get married to her fiancé, who experiences a daydream in which she pursues him after he flees from the wedding. "Hot n Cold" was nominated for the Grammy Award for Best Female Pop Vocal Performance at the 52nd Annual Grammy Awards. Perry also performed the song on the Hello Katy Tour, California Dreams Tour, and Prismatic World Tour. It is also a regular part of the setlist of Perry's Witness: The Tour as a mash-up with her song, Last Friday Night (T.G.I.F) from her album, Teenage Dream.
Contents
[hide]
1 Background and composition
2 Critical reception
3 Chart performance
4 Music video
5 Live performances
6 Usage in media
7 Track listing
8 Credits and personnel
9 Charts
9.1 Weekly charts
9.2 Decade-end charts
9.3 Year-end charts
10 Certifications
11 Release history
12 Cover versions
12.1 Woe, Is Me version
12.2 The Baseballs version
12.2.1 Charts
12.3 Other cover versions
13 References
14 External links
Background and composition[edit]
"Hot n Cold" was written by Perry, Dr. Luke and Max Martin and produced by Dr. Luke and Benny Blanco. It was recorded in December 2007 in three studios: Dr. Luke's Studios in New York City, Conway Recording Studio in Hollywood, California, and Legacy Recording Studios in New York City. It was mixed in MixStar Studios in Virginia Beach.[1] The collaboration between Perry and Dr. Luke was set up by record executives at Capitol Records, who felt that One of the Boys was lacking an "undeniable smash or two" at the time, and the two co-wrote "I Kissed a Girl" and "Hot n Cold" as a result.[2] Perry revealed that the song was originally considered for release as the album's first single, before "I Kissed a Girl" was chosen.[3]
Written in the key of G major,[4] "Hot n Cold" is a pop and dance-pop song which utilizes guitars and synthesizers.[5][6][7] It has a length of three minutes and forty seconds (3:40),[8] and runs at a moderately fast tempo of 132 beats per minute.[4] The lyrics of the song address a lover of Perry whose mood swings are affecting the couple's relationship. The song opens with Perry confronting her former partner over his frequent changes of mind, singing "You change your mind like a girl changes clothes / Yeah you PMS like a bitch". In the chorus, she uses antonyms to describe her partner's mood changes, with the chorus of the song including the lines "You're hot then you're cold / You're yes then you're no / You're in then you're out / You're up then you're down".[9]
Critical reception[edit]
Alex Fletcher of Digital Spy gave the song 3 out of 5 stars, saying "this track doesn't live up to the hype surrounding its singer, but the choppy guitars and whooshing synths have a certain charm."[5] In his review for MusicOMH, Darren Harvey called "Hot n Cold" a "Tiffany-style '80s pop number".[6] ChartAttack noted the "frenetic dance-pop" of the track.[7] In a less positive review, Sal Cinquemani from Slant Magazine criticized the song, saying "Perry confuses political incorrectness with being subversive on tracks like "Hot n Cold," in which she, in the process of skewering guys who change their minds 'like girls change clothes,' just winds up sounding mildly sexist."[10] Jon Caramanica of The New York Times compared the song to "U + Ur Hand" by Pink, which was also produced by Dr. Luke, saying that it does not share the latter's "passion".[11] Lizzie Ennever of BBC felt the track was not "the most single-worthy song".[12] The Guardian wrote that the song "didn't seem to capture the public's imagination" the way her previous single "I Kissed a Girl" did.[13] The song was nominated for the Grammy Award for Best Female Pop Vocal Performance at the 52nd Annual Grammy Awards,[14] but lost to Beyoncé's "Halo".[15]
Chart performance[edit]
Perry performing "Hot n Cold" during Witness: The Tour in Madison Square Garden
"Hot n Cold" debuted on the US Billboard Hot 100 at number 88 on June 28, 2008, due to strong digital downloads after the album's release, falling off the chart the next week. It re-entered the Hot 100 on August 23, again at number 88. The song peaked at number three on the Hot 100 on November 22, making it her second top-three hit after "I Kissed a Girl". "Hot n Cold" was in the top ten for 18 weeks, spending more time in the top ten than Perry's previous single "I Kissed a Girl", which spent 14 weeks. The song was also a bigger radio hit than "I Kissed a Girl", becoming Perry's first number one on both US Mainstream Top 40 and Adult Top 40 radio charts. It remained in the Hot 100 for a total of 39 weeks.[16] As of 2017, "Hot n Cold" has sold 5.7 million copies in the United States, making it Perry's sixth best-selling single in the country.[17]
In Canada, the song debuted at number 73 and reached the number one position on the chart on November 20. It was later certified six-times-platinum.[18] The song peaked at number four on the UK Singles Chart on December 7, and was certified platinum.[19] In Ireland, the song peaked at number three. "Hot n Cold" debuted on the German Singles Chart at number two due to strong digital download sales, before topping the chart and spending eight consecutive weeks at number one in Germany.[20] In Australia, the single debuted in the top 50, before reaching its peak at number four. It has since been certified five-times-platinum in the country.[21] The song peaked at number one in the Czech Republic, and spent ten consecutive weeks at the top of the chart.[22] "Hot n Cold" reached the number one position in Denmark, later being certified two-times-platinum,[23] and hit number one in Austria before being certified platinum.[24]
Music video[edit]
Perry corners Alexander leading a zebra on a leash, before he awakens from his daydream.
The video begins with Perry at a wedding, about to exchange vows with her diffident fiancé Alexander (played by actor/model Alexander Francis Rodriguez). Perry says her vows, but Alexander hesitates and the church anxiously waits for him to say "I do". Perry appears frustrated and the music begins to play, with the congregation dancing as disco lights flash. Perry begins to sing the song to Alexander before he flees the altar. She pursues him, and they proceed to play a cat-and-mouse game. Perry corners him in a warehouse, and Alexander is pulled into an audience and forced to crowd-surf while watching Perry perform the song on stage. He manages to escape but walks out to find Perry in her wedding dress surrounded by several other brides carrying baseball bats. Perry confronts him, but he is able to get away.
Perry and the other brides chase after him. When Alexander pulls out his phone, Perry is on the screen singing to him. He flees the warehouse and finds Perry outside wearing urban clothing, surrounded by dancers dressed similarly. When he turns around, he discovers that he has been cornered by Perry and the group of angry brides. He stumbles and the dancers surround him as he lies on the ground, before Perry approaches him leading a zebra on a leash. Alexander blinks and finds himself back at the altar in the church, revealing that the previous events were just his fantasy. The priest asks him again if he accepts his vows, and this time he says "I do". The crowd in the church breaks out into cheers and sighs of relief as Perry runs victoriously down the aisle with him.
Perry's friend Jadyn Maria appears in the music video as a bridesmaid, and her parents Keith and Mary Hudson also make cameos.[25][26] The video for "Hot n Cold" was recorded in Los Angeles in September 2008 and released on October 1, 2008.[27] It was directed by Alan Ferguson. Rolling Stone described the music video as "a colorful cat-and-mouse chase that's equal parts goofy and glam."[28] Capital FM wrote that the video "had us in stitches".[29]
The music video on YouTube has over 760 million views as of January 2018.[30]
Live performances[edit]
Perry performing "Hot n Cold" during Prismatic World Tour.
Perry made the live television premiere performance of "Hot n Cold" on NBC's Today on August 29, 2008.[31] Perry performed the song live at the 2008 MTV Europe Music Awards in Liverpool, which she also hosted, on November 6 to close the show.[32] The song was also performed as the opener at the 2008 YouTube Live event on November 22, 2008.[33] Perry performed the song with Taylor Swift at the Staples Center show during the Fearless Tour on April 15, 2010.[34] The song has been included in the setlists of Perry's Hello Katy, California Dreams, and Prismatic World tours. During the California Dreams Tour, Perry performed a "magic trick" that involved her changing into 7 different outfits during the number.[35] Perry performed the song on her The Prismatic World Tour in a slow jazz version with her dressing in a pink-catsuit with her dancers dressed in a similar way.[36]
Usage in media[edit]
Perry filmed a performance of a version of the song with puppet character Elmo from Sesame Street, which was intended to teach children about antonyms. The clip was originally scheduled to run on the 41st-season premiere of the educational children's program on September 27, 2010, however the performance, which was uploaded to YouTube earlier, garnered controversy over the amount of cleavage Perry had on display in the video. Before the scheduled airing, Sesame Workshop announced that after controversy over the clip, "We have decided we will not air the segment on the television broadcast of Sesame Street, which is aimed at preschoolers. Katy Perry fans will still be able to view the video on YouTube."[37] Perry mocked the controversy shortly afterwards in a skit during her appearance on Saturday Night Live as a musical guest, wearing an Elmo-themed shirt which showed large amounts of cleavage.[38]
The song was used as the theme music for MasterChef Australia and its associated TV ads.[39]
"Hot n Cold" was featured in the opening sequence for the film The Ugly Truth.[40]
It was featured in the film American Pie: The Book of Love and its soundtrack.[41]
The song was featured in the trailer for the film The Proposal[42] and the final trailer for Inside Out.[43]
Perry recorded a cover version in the fictional language of "Simlish" which was used in the video game The Sims 2.[44]
The song appeared in the second iCarly soundtrack, iSoundtrack II.[45]
During the 2010 Sant Jordi festivities in Barcelona, the (350+) staff in one of the main buildings of the Polytechnic University of Catalonia performed a notorious lip dub of the song that reached over 150000 views on YouTube.[46]
The song was sung by The Chipettes in the 2009 movie Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.
Track listing[edit]
German CD single[47]
"Hot n Cold" (Uncensored Version) – 3:40
"Hot n Cold" (Innerpartysystem Remix) – 4:37
"Hot n Cold" (Manhattan Clique Radio Edit) – 3:54
UK CD single[48]
"Hot n Cold" (Uncensored Version) – 3:40
"Hot n Cold" (Innerpartysystem Remix) – 4:37
European single[49]
"Hot n Cold" (Clean Version) – 3:40
"Hot n Cold" (Rock Mix) – 3:41
Maxi single[50]
"Hot n Cold" (Clean Version) – 3:40
"Hot n Cold" (Instrumental) – 3:40
"Hot n Cold" (Acapella) – 3:41
"Hot n Cold" (Rock Mix) – 3:41
"Hot n Cold" (Innerpartysystem Remix) – 4:37
"Hot n Cold" (Bimbo Jones Radio Edit) – 3:50
"Hot n Cold" (Manhattan Clique Radio Edit) – 3:54
"Hot n Cold" (Jason Nevins Radio Edit) – 3:57
Credits and personnel[edit]
Katy Perry – composer, vocals
Dr. Luke – bass, composer, drums, guitars, programming
Max Martin – composer, guitars
Benny Blanco – drums, programming
Steven Wolf – programming
Serban Ghenea – mixing
John Hanes – mix engineer
Emily Wright – engineer
Sam Holland – engineer
Nick Banns – engineer
Tatiana Gottwald – engineer
Tina Kennedy – engineer
Credits adapted from One of the Boys album liner notes.[1]
Charts[edit]
Weekly charts[edit]
Chart (2008–09)
Peak
position
Australia (ARIA)[51] 4
Austria (Ö3 Austria Top 40)[52] 1
Belgium (Ultratop 50 Flanders)[53] 2
Belgium (Ultratop 50 Wallonia)[54] 1
Canada (Canadian Hot 100)[55] 1
Czech Republic (Rádio Top 100)[56] 1
Denmark (Tracklisten)[57] 1
Europe (European Hot 100 Singles)[58] 1
Finland (Suomen virallinen lista)[59] 1
France (SNEP)[60] 10
France (SNEP) Download Chart[61] 2
Germany (Official German Charts)[62] 1
Hungary (Rádiós Top 40)[63] 1
Iceland (RÚV)[64] 24
Ireland (IRMA)[65] 3
Israel (Media Forest)[66] 2
Italy (FIMI)[67] 2
Japan (Japan Hot 100)[68] 34
Netherlands (Dutch Top 40)[69] 1
New Zealand (Recorded Music NZ)[70] 5
Norway (VG-lista)[71] 1
Poland (Polish Airplay Charts)[72] 1
Romanian Top 100[73] 1
Slovakia (Rádio Top 100)[74] 1
Spain (PROMUSICAE)[75] 13
Sweden (Sverigetopplistan)[76] 2
Switzerland (Schweizer Hitparade)[77] 1
UK Singles (Official Charts Company)[78] 4
US Billboard Hot 100[79] 3
US Adult Contemporary (Billboard)[80] 9
US Adult Top 40 (Billboard)[81] 1
US Dance Club Songs (Billboard)[82] 32
US Mainstream Top 40 (Billboard)[83] 1
US Rhythmic (Billboard)[84] 21
Venezuela Pop Rock (Record Report)[85] 1
Decade-end charts[edit]
Chart (2000–09)
Position
Australian Singles Chart[86] 30
German Singles Chart[87] 19
Netherlands (Dutch Top 40)[88] 52
UK Singles Chart[89] 82
US Billboard Hot 100[90] 69
Year-end charts[edit]
Chart (2008)
Position
Australian Singles Chart[91] 16
Austrian Singles Chart[92] 63
Canadian Hot 100[93] 31
Finnish Singles Chart[94][95] 13
German Singles Chart[96] 47
New Zealand Singles Chart[97] 25
Swedish Singles Chart[98] 40
Swiss Singles Chart[99] 40
UK Singles Chart[100] 23
US Billboard Hot 100[101] 36
Chart (2009)
Position
Austrian Singles Chart[102] 5
Belgian Ultratop 50 (Flanders)[103] 19
Belgian Ultratop 40 (Wallonia)[104] 6
Canadian Hot 100[105] 11
European Hot 100 Singles[106] 2
Finnish Singles Chart[107][108] 2
German Singles Chart [109] 13
Hungarian Airplay Chart[110] 1
Italian Singles Chart[111] 14
Romanian Top 100[112] 1
Swiss Singles Chart[113] 4
UK Singles Chart[114] 76
US Billboard Hot 100[115] 25
Certifications[edit]
Region
Certification
Certified units/Sales
Australia (ARIA)[116]
5× Platinum 350,000^
Austria (IFPI Austria)[117]
Platinum 30,000*
Belgium (BEA)[118]
Gold 15,000*
Brazil (Pro-Música Brasil)[119]
2× Platinum 200,000*
Canada (Music Canada)[120]
6× Platinum 240,000^
Denmark (IFPI Denmark)[121]
2× Platinum 60,000^
Finland (Musiikkituottajat)[122]
Platinum 14,579[122]
France (SNEP)
150,000[123]
Germany (BVMI)[124]
Platinum 300,000^
New Zealand (RMNZ)[125]
Platinum 15,000*
Spain (PROMUSICAE)[126]
Gold 20,000^
Switzerland (IFPI Switzerland)[127]
Platinum 30,000^
United Kingdom (BPI)[128]
Platinum 680,494[129]
United States (RIAA)[130]
7× Platinum 5,700,000[131]
*sales figures based on certification alone
^shipments figures based on certification alone
Since May 2013 RIAA certifications for digital singles include on-demand audio and/or video song streams in addition to downloads.[132]
Release history[edit]
Region
Date
Format
United States[133][134] September 9, 2008 Top 40/Mainstream radio
September 30, 2008 Rhythmic radio
October 8, 2008 Hot AC radio
Germany [135] November 21, 2008 CD single
United Kingdom[136] November 24, 2008 CD single
Worldwide[137] November 24, 2008 Digital EP
France[138] December 14, 2008 CD single
Cover versions[edit]
Woe, Is Me version[edit]
"Hot 'n Cold"
Single by Woe, Is Me
from the album Punk Goes Pop 3
Released
October 21, 2010
Format
Digital download
Recorded
2010
Genre
Metalcore
Length
3:08
Label
Rise, Velocity, distributed through Fearless
Songwriter(s)
Katy Perry
Lukasz Gottwald
Max Martin
Producer(s)
Cameron Mizell
Woe, Is Me singles chronology
"Hot 'n Cold"
(2010) "[&] Delinquents"
(2011)
"Hot 'n Cold"
(2010) "[&] Delinquents"
(2011)
Atlanta-based metalcore band, Woe, Is Me covered the track for the compilation album Punk Goes Pop 3, which was released on November 2, 2010. The song was leaked on October 6, 2010, and was officially released as a single for digital download on October 21, 2010.[139] MTV News described the band's cover as "50 percent faithful to the original and..... 50 percent punishing, metal and gravel-throated growls. It must be heard to be believed."[140]
The Baseballs version[edit]
"Hot n Cold" was covered by the German rockabilly cover band The Baseballs in 2009 from their debut album Strike!.[141] Their cover charted in the band's home country of Germany, as well as in Finland and Switzerland.
Charts[edit]
Chart (2010)
Peak
position
Germany (Official German Charts)[142] 68
Finland (Suomen virallinen lista)[143] 7
Switzerland (Schweizer Hitparade)[144] 52
Other cover versions[edit]
The song was covered by British ska and indie band Kid British on their 2009 EP iTunes Live: London Festival '09.[145]
The Chipettes covered the song for the movie Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel and the movie's soundtrack. In this version the line "You PMS, like a bitch, I would know" is changed to "You always stress like a chick, I would know".[146]
Selena Gomez & the Scene performed the song during their 2009 Selena Gomez & the Scene: Live in Concert tour.[147]
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External links[edit]
Lyrics of this song at MetroLyrics
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v
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Katy Perry
Discography
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One of the Boys
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Meow!
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Katy Perry: Part of Me
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The Matrix
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Woe, Is Me
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"Hot n Cold"
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[show]
v
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Alvin and the Chipmunks
Characters
David Seville
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Clyde Crashcup
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"Witch Doctor"
"The Chipmunk Song (Christmas Don't Be Late)"
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A Chipmunk Christmas
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The Chipmunks Go Hollywood
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Chipmunks in Low Places
Greatest Hits
Here's Looking at Me!
A Very Merry Chipmunk
When You Wish Upon a Chipmunk
Club Chipmunk: The Dance Mixes
The A-Files: Alien Songs
Greatest Hits: Still Squeaky After All These Years
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Undeniable
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episodes
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Alvin and the Chipmunks Meet Frankenstein (1999)
Alvin and the Chipmunks Meet the Wolfman (2000)
Little Alvin and the Mini-Munks (2003)
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The Squeakquel (2009)
Chipwrecked (2011)
The Road Chip (2015)
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People
Ross Bagdasarian Sr.
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Liberty Records
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hot_n_Cold&oldid=821784612"
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Speculation
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This article is about the financial term. For other uses, see Speculation (disambiguation).
"Speculator" redirects here. For the Montana mining incident, see Speculator Mine disaster. For the village in New York, see Speculator, New York. For the archaic tactic in rugby, see Field goal (rugby).
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v
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Speculation is the purchase of an asset (a commodity, goods, or real estate) with the hope that it will become more valuable at a future date. In finance, speculation is also the practice of engaging in risky financial transactions in an attempt to profit from short term fluctuations in the market value of a tradable financial instrument—rather than attempting to profit from the underlying financial attributes embodied in the instrument such as capital gains, dividends, or interest.
Many speculators pay little attention to the fundamental value of a security and instead focus purely on price movements. Speculation can in principle involve any tradable good or financial instrument. Speculators are particularly common in the markets for stocks, bonds, commodity futures, currencies, fine art, collectibles, real estate, and derivatives.
Speculators play one of four primary roles in financial markets, along with hedgers, who engage in transactions to offset some other pre-existing risk, arbitrageurs who seek to profit from situations where fungible instruments trade at different prices in different market segments, and investors who seek profit through long-term ownership of an instrument's underlying attributes.
Contents
[hide]
1 History
2 Speculation and investment
3 Economic benefits
3.1 Sustainable consumption level
3.2 Market liquidity and efficiency
3.3 Bearing risks
3.4 Finding environmental and other risks
3.5 Shorting
4 Economic disadvantages
4.1 Winner's curse
4.2 Economic bubbles
5 Government responses and regulation
5.1 Food security
5.2 Regulations
5.3 Proposals
6 Books
7 See also
8 References
9 External links
History[edit]
With the appearance of the stock ticker machine in 1867, which removed the need for traders to be physically present on the floor of a stock exchange, stock speculation underwent a dramatic expansion through the end of the 1920s. The number of shareholders increased, perhaps, from 4.4 million in 1900 to 26 million in 1932.[1]
Speculation and investment[edit]
The view of what distinguishes investment from speculation and speculation from excessive speculation varies widely among pundits, legislators and academics. Some sources note that speculation is simply a higher risk form of investment. Others define speculation more narrowly as positions not characterized as hedging.[2] The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission defines a speculator as "a trader who does not hedge, but who trades with the objective of achieving profits through the successful anticipation of price movements."[3] The agency emphasizes that speculators serve important market functions, but defines excessive speculation as harmful to the proper functioning of futures markets.[4]
According to Benjamin Graham in The Intelligent Investor, the prototypical defensive investor is "...one interested chiefly in safety plus freedom from bother." He admits, however, that "...some speculation is necessary and unavoidable, for in many common-stock situations, there are substantial possibilities of both profit and loss, and the risks therein must be assumed by someone." Thus, many long-term investors, even those who buy and hold for decades, may be classified as speculators, excepting only the rare few who are primarily motivated by income or safety of principal and not eventually selling at a profit.[5]
Speculation is condemned on ethical-moral grounds as creating money from money and thereby promoting the vices of avarice and gambling.[6]
There is opinion that it serves no purposes from a human and economic perspective [7][8]
Economic benefits[edit]
Sustainable consumption level[edit]
Speculation usually involves more risks than investment.
Nicholas Kaldor[9] has long recognized the price-stabilizing role of speculators, who tend to even out "price-fluctuations due to changes in the conditions of demand or supply," by possessing "better than average foresight." This view was later echoed by the speculator Victor Niederhoffer, in "The Speculator as Hero",[10] who describes the benefits of speculation:
Let's consider some of the principles that explain the causes of shortages and surpluses and the role of speculators. When a harvest is too small to satisfy consumption at its normal rate, speculators come in, hoping to profit from the scarcity by buying. Their purchases raise the price, thereby checking consumption so that the smaller supply will last longer. Producers encouraged by the high price further lessen the shortage by growing or importing to reduce the shortage. On the other side, when the price is higher than the speculators think the facts warrant, they sell. This reduces prices, encouraging consumption and exports and helping to reduce the surplus.
Another service provided by speculators to a market is that by risking their own capital in the hope of profit, they add liquidity to the market and make it easier or even possible for others to offset risk, including those who may be classified as hedgers and arbitrageurs.
Market liquidity and efficiency[edit]
If any market, such as pork bellies, had no speculators, only producers (hog farmers) and consumers (butchers, etc.) would participate. With fewer players in the market, there would be a larger spread between the current bid and ask price of pork bellies. Any new entrant in the market who wanted to trade pork bellies would be forced to accept this illiquid market and might trade at market prices with large bid-ask spreads or even face difficulty finding a co-party to buy or sell to.
By contrast, a commodity speculator may profit the difference in the spread and, in competition with other speculators, reduce the spread. Some schools of thought argue that speculators increase the liquidity in a market, and therefore promote an efficient market.[11] This efficiency is difficult to achieve without speculators. Speculators take information and speculate on how it affects prices, producers and consumers, who may want to hedge their risks, needing counterparties if they could find each other without markets it certainly would happen as it would be cheaper. A very beneficial by-product of speculation for the economy is price discovery.
On the other hand, as more speculators participate in a market, underlying real demand and supply can diminish compared to trading volume, and prices may become distorted.[11]
Bearing risks[edit]
Speculators perform a risk bearing role that can be beneficial to society. For example, a farmer might be considering planting corn on some unused farmland. However, he might not want to do so because he is concerned that the price might fall too far by harvest time. By selling his crop in advance at a fixed price to a speculator, he is now able to hedge the price risk and so he can plant the corn. Thus, speculators can actually increase production through their willingness to take on risk (not at the loss of profit).
Finding environmental and other risks[edit]
Speculative hedge funds that do fundamental analysis "are far more likely than other investors to try to identify a firm's off-balance-sheet exposures" including "environmental or social liabilities present in a market or company but not explicitly accounted for in traditional numeric valuation or mainstream investor analysis". Hence, they make the prices better reflect the true quality of operation of the firms.[12]
Shorting[edit]
Shorting may act as a "canary in a coal mine" to stop unsustainable practices earlier and thus reduce damages and forming market bubbles.[12]
Economic disadvantages[edit]
Winner's curse[edit]
Auctions are a method of squeezing out speculators from a transaction, but they may have their own perverse effects by the winner's curse. The winner's curse, is however, not very significant to markets with high liquidity for both buyers and sellers, as the auction for selling the product and the auction for buying the product occur simultaneously, and the two prices are separated only by a relatively small spread. That mechanism prevents the winner's curse phenomenon from causing mispricing to any degree greater than the spread.
Economic bubbles[edit]
Speculation is often associated with economic bubbles.[13] A bubble occurs when the price for an asset exceeds its intrinsic value by a significant margin,[14] although not all bubbles occur due to speculation.[15] Speculative bubbles are characterized by rapid market expansion driven by word-of-mouth feedback loops, as initial rises in asset price attract new buyers and generate further inflation.[16] The growth of the bubble is followed by a precipitous collapse fueled by the same phenomenon.[14][17] Speculative bubbles are essentially social epidemics whose contagion is mediated by the structure of the market.[17] Some economists link asset price movements within a bubble to fundamental economic factors such as cash flows and discount rates.[18]
In 1936, John Maynard Keynes wrote: "Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the situation is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. (1936:159)"[19] Keynes himself enjoyed speculation to the fullest, running an early precursor of a hedge fund. As the Bursar of the Cambridge University King's College, he managed two investment funds, one of which, called Chest Fund, invested not only in the then 'emerging' market US stocks, but to a smaller extent periodically included commodity futures and foreign currencies (see Chua and Woodward, 1983). His fund was profitable almost every year, averaging 13% per year, even during the Great Depression, thanks to very modern investment strategies, which included inter-market diversification (it invested in stocks, commodities and currencies) as well as shorting (selling borrowed stocks or futures to profit from falling prices), which Keynes advocated among the principles of successful investment in his 1933 report: "a balanced investment position... and if possible, opposed risks".[20]
It is controversial whether the presence of speculators increases or decreases short-term volatility in a market. Their provision of capital and information may help stabilize prices closer to their true values. On the other hand, crowd behavior and positive feedback loops in market participants may also increase volatility.
Government responses and regulation[edit]
The economic disadvantages of speculators have resulted in a number of attempts over the years to introduce regulations and restrictions to try to limit or reduce the impact of speculators. Such financial regulation is often enacted in response to a crisis as was the case with the Bubble Act 1720, which was passed by the British government at the height of the South Sea Bubble to try to stop speculation in such schemes. It was left in place for over a hundred years until it was repealed in 1825. Another example was the Glass–Steagall Act passed in 1933 during the Great Depression in the United States; most of the Glass-Steagall provisions were repealed during the 1980s and 1990s. The Onion Futures Act bans the trading of futures contracts on onions in the United States, after speculators successfully cornered the market in the mid-1950s; it remains in effect as of 2013[update].
Food security[edit]
Main article: food security
Some nations have moved to limit foreign ownership of cropland to ensure that food is available for local consumption while others have sold food land and depend on the World Food Programme.[21]
In 1935, the Indian government passed a law allowing the government partial restriction and direct control of food production (Defence of India Act, 1935). It included the ability to restrict or ban the trading in derivatives on food commodities. After independence, in the 1950s, India continued to struggle with feeding its population and the government increasingly restricted trading in food commodities. Just at the time the Forward Markets Commission was established, the government felt that derivative markets increased speculation, which led to increased food costs and price instabilities. In 1953, it finally prohibited options and futures trading altogether.[22] The restrictions were not lifted until the 1980s.
Regulations[edit]
In the US, following passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed regulations aimed at limiting speculation in futures markets by instituting position limits. The CFTC offers three basic elements for their regulatory framework: "the size (or levels) of the limits themselves; the exemptions from the limits (for example, hedged positions) and; the policy on aggregating accounts for purposes of applying the limits."[23] The proposed position limits apply to 28 physical commodities traded in various exchanges across the US.[24]
Another part of the Dodd-Frank Act established the Volcker Rule, which deals with speculative investments of banks that do not benefit their customers. Passed on 21 January 2010, it states that those investments played a key role in the financial crisis of 2007–2010.[25]
Proposals[edit]
See also: Speculative attack, Currency crisis, Black Wednesday, Fictitious capital, Financial transaction tax, Currency transaction tax, Tobin tax, and Spahn tax
A number of proposals made in the past to try to limit speculation that were never enacted:
The Tobin tax is a tax intended to reduce short-term currency speculation, ostensibly to stabilize foreign exchange.
In May 2008 German leaders planned to propose a worldwide ban on oil trading by speculators, blaming the 2008 oil price rises on manipulation by hedge funds.[26]
On 3 December 2009, Representative Peter DeFazio, who blamed "reckless speculation" for the 2008 financial crisis, proposed the introduction of a financial transaction tax, which would specifically target speculators by taxing financial market securities transactions.
Books[edit]
Covel, Michael. The Complete Turtle Trader. HarperCollins, 2007. ISBN 9780061241703
Douglas, Mark. The Disciplined Trader. New York Institute of Finance, 1990. ISBN 0-13-215757-8
Gunther, Max The Zurich Axioms Souvenir Press (1st print 1985) ISBN 0-285-63095-4.
Fox, Justin. The Myth of the Rational Market. HarperCollings, 2009. ISBN 9780060598990
Lefèvre, Edwin. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2005 (1st print 1923) ISBN 0471678767
Neill, Humphrey B. The Art of Contrary Thinking Caxton Press 1954.
Niederhoffer, Victor Practical Speculation John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2005 ISBN 0-471-67774-4
Sobel, Robert The Money Manias: The Eras of Great Speculation in America, 1770-1970 Beard Books 1973 ISBN 1-58798-028-2
Patterson, Scott The Quants, How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed it Crown Business, 2010 ISBN 9780307453372
Schwartz, Martin "Buzzy". Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Trader HarperCollins, 2007 ISBN 9780061844638
Schwager, Jack D. Trading with the Market Wizards: The Complete Market Wizards Series John Wiley & Sons 2013 ISBN 9781118582978
Tharp, Van K. Definitive Guide to Position Sizing International Institute of Trading Mastery, 2008. ISBN 0935219099
See also[edit]
Wikiquote has quotations related to: Speculation
Adventurer
Behavioral finance
Black Wednesday
Bull (stock market speculator)
Carbon credits
Currency crisis
Currency transaction tax
DeFazio financial transaction tax
Domain name speculation
Equity (finance)
European crime
Fictitious capital
Financial market
Financial regulatory reform
Day trading
George Soros
Jesse Lauriston Livermore
Seasonal traders
Short selling
Slippage (finance)
Spahn tax
Speculative attack
Stock market bubble
Stock trader
Tobin tax
Tulip mania
Volcker Rule
References[edit]
Citations
Jump up ^ Stäheli 2013, p. 4.
Jump up ^ Szado, Edward (2011). "Defining Speculation: The First Step toward a Rational Dialogue". The Journal of Alternative Investments. CAIA Association.
Jump up ^ "CFTC Glossary: A guide to the language of the futures industry". cftc.gov. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 28 August 2012.
Jump up ^ "Staff Report on Commodity Swap Dealers & Index Traders with Commission Recommendations" (PDF). U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 2008. Retrieved 27 August 2012.
Jump up ^ Graham, Benjamin (1973). The Intelligent Investor. HarperCollins Books. ISBN 0-06-055566-1.
Jump up ^ Investment vs. Gambling, the Gambling Culture, pp. 37-44
Jump up ^ A discussion of stock market speculation by P. J. Proudhon
Jump up ^ http://www.jstor.org/stable/2376347?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
Jump up ^ Nicholas Kaldor, 1960. Essays on Economic Stability and Growth. Illinois: The Free Press of Glencoe.
Jump up ^ Victor Niederhoffer, The Wall Street Journal, 10 February 1989 Daily Speculations
^ Jump up to: a b http://chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/understanding_derivatives/understanding_derivatives_chapter_1_derivatives_overview.pdf
^ Jump up to: a b Unlikely heroes - Can hedge funds save the world? One pundit thinks so, The Economist, 16 February 2010
Jump up ^ Teeter, Preston; Sandberg, Jorgen (2017). "Cracking the enigma of asset bubbles with narratives". Strategic Organization. 15 (1): 91–99. doi:10.1177/1476127016629880.
^ Jump up to: a b Hollander, Barbara Gottfried (2011). Booms, Bubbles, & Busts (The Global Marketplace). Heinemann Library. pp. 40–41. ISBN 1432954776.
Jump up ^ Lei, Noussair & Plott 2001, p. 831: "In a setting in which speculation is not possible, bubbles and crashes are observed. The results suggest that the departures from fundamental values are not caused by the lack of common knowledge of rationality leading to speculation, but rather by behavior that itself exhibits elements of irrationality."
Jump up ^ Rosser, J. Barkley (2000). From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities: Mathematics, Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, and Finance. p. 107.
^ Jump up to: a b Shiller, Robert J. (23 July 2012). "Bubbles without Markets". Retrieved 29 August 2012.
Jump up ^ Siegel, Journal (2003). "What Is an Asset Price Bubble? An Operation Definition" (PDF). European Financial Management. 9 (1): 11–24. doi:10.1111/1468-036x.00206.
Jump up ^ Dr. Stephen Spratt of Intelligence Capital (September 2006). "A Sterling Solution". Stamp Out Poverty report. Stamp Out Poverty Campaign. p. 15. Retrieved 2 January 2010.
Jump up ^ Chua, J. H. and R. S. Woodward (1983). "The Investment Wizardry of J.M. Keynes". 39. Financial Analysts Journal: 35–37. JSTOR 4478643.
Jump up ^ Valente, Marcela. "Curbing foreign ownership of farmland." IPS, 22 May 2011.
Jump up ^ Frida Youssef (October 2000). "Integrated report on Commodity Exchanges And Forward Market Commission (FMC)". FMC.
Jump up ^ "Speculative Limits". U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2012.
Jump up ^ "CFTC Approves Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Regarding Regulations on Aggregation for Position Limits for Futures and Swaps". U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2012.
Jump up ^ David Cho and Binyamin Appelbaum (22 January 2010). "Obama's 'Volcker Rule' shifts power away from Geithner". The Washington Post. Retrieved 13 February 2010.
Jump up ^ Evans-Pritchard, Ambrose (26 May 2008). "Germany in call for ban on oil speculation". The Daily Telegraph. The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 28 May 2008.
Bibliography
Lei, Vivian; Noussair, Charles N.; Plott, Charles R. (2001). "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality". Econometrica. 69 (4): 831–859. doi:10.1111/1468-0262.00222. JSTOR 2692246.
Stäheli, Urs (2013). Spectacular Speculation: Thrills, the Economy, and Popular Discourse. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. ISBN 978-0-804-77131-3.
External links[edit]
Look up speculation in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.
Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading
Understanding Derivatives: Markets and Infrastructure Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Financial Markets Group
Food Commodities Speculation and Food Price Crises
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