FIGURE 5 | (A) Observed terciles (above normal, normal, below normal) for the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ), computed using observed climate data for DJF 2014–2015 and the model presented in section Two-Vector One-Host Ento-Epidemiological Model. (B) Forecast probabilities (in %) for R 0 for the same DJF season, computed using predicted climate data, the vector model presented in Section Two-Vector One-Host Ento-Epidemiological Model and the probabilistic Principal Component Regression model described in Section Data and