Daily Papers

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become the central paradigm in artificial intelligence, yet the core computational primitive of attention has remained structurally unchanged. Local Linear Attention (LLA) is an attention mechanism derived from nonparametric statistics in the test-time regression framework. In contrast to prior research on efficient attention variants, LLA upgrades the local constant estimate in softmax attention to a local linear estimate, yielding provably superior bias-variance tradeoffs for associative memory. However, LLA has not been scaled in LLM pretraining due to computational and numerical stability concerns. We introduce Parallax, a parameterized Local Linear Attention that is scalable for LLMs. Parallax eliminates the numerical solver in LLA and learns an extra query-like projector that probes the KV covariance. We place Parallax within a family of attention mechanisms connected by the bandwidth, the probe construction and the affine structure. We propose a hardware-aware algorithm that increases the arithmetic intensity over FlashAttention, shifting attention into a more compute bound regime. Our prototype decode kernel matches or outperforms FlashAttention 2/3 across diverse batch sizes and context lengths. We pretrain Parallax at 0.6B and 1.7B scales and find consistent perplexity improvements throughout pretraining with gains that transfer to downstream benchmarks. The advantage persists under both parameter-matched and compute-matched controls, demonstrating a Pareto improvement. We perform careful pretraining ablations and identify a novel phenomenon whereby Muon unlocks the capacity of Parallax. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical demonstration of strong architecture-optimizer codesign for attention mechanisms in the architecture research literature.

INT2 KV-cache quantization is attractive for long-context LLM serving, but it remains difficult to make both accurate and deployable. Simple rotations such as Hadamard transforms reduce outliers, but still degrade at INT2 because they are not aligned with downstream attention. We propose OSCAR, an Ultra-low-bit KV Cache quantization method that estimates attention-aware covariance structures offline and uses them to derive fixed rotations and clipping thresholds for quantization. In this way, it aligns KV quantization with the covariance structures that attention actually consumes. More importantly, we not only provide theoretical justification but also develop a fully deployable OSCAR system with a custom INT2 attention kernel that remains compatible with paged KV-cache serving and fused kernel pipelines, enabling seamless integration into modern LLM serving frameworks such as SGLang and vLLM. We evaluate our methods on recent reasoning models with reasoning traces of up to 32k tokens across 5 tasks. On Qwen3-4B-Thinking-2507 and Qwen3-8B, OSCAR reduces the BF16 accuracy gap to 3.78 and 1.42 points, respectively, while naive rotation INT2 collapses to nearly zero. We further scale OSCAR to Qwen3-32B and GLM-4.7 (358B params), where it remains effectively on par with BF16. On long context - RULER-NIAH up to 128K, OSCAR remains robust on both Qwen3 models, while naive rotation INT2 collapses. System-wise, OSCAR reduces KV-cache memory by approximately 8x, improves throughput by up to 7x at large batch sizes under the same memory budget, and accelerates batch-size-1 decoding by up to 3x over BF16 due to reduced memory bandwidth overhead.

Converting pretrained attention modules such as grouped-query attention (GQA) into multi-head latent attention (MLA) can improve expressivity without increasing KV-cache cost, making it attractive for efficient inference. However, many practical conversion baselines rely on weight-only low-rank approximations (e.g., SVD-style initializations) and uniform rank allocation. They focus on minimizing the difference between weight matrices rather than on how those weights affect input activations, ignore the covariance structure of activations, and enforce uniform rank across layers, causing activation drift and degraded attention fidelity. To address these issues, we propose CARE, a Covariance-Aware, Rank-Enhanced MLA conversion pipeline under a fixed KV width. CARE introduces three key steps: (i) activation-preserving factorization, which aligns the approximation with the actual input activations rather than just the weights; (ii) adjusted-rank allocation, which spreads a fixed KV budget across layers by giving more capacity to layers that need it most; and (iii) KV-parity mapping, which reparameterizes the converted K and V to fit the MLA format while keeping the KV-cache size unchanged. Our method outperforms a uniform-rank SVD baseline on Qwen3-4B/30B-A3B-Instruct-2507 and Llama-3.1-8B/70B-Instruct, reducing one-shot perplexity by up to 215x and improving mean accuracy by up to 1.70x at matched KV budgets. With a brief post-SVD healing fine-tune, we fully recover the original model's accuracy.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Large nonlinear recurrent neural networks with random couplings generate high-dimensional, potentially chaotic activity whose structure is of interest in neuroscience and other fields. A fundamental object encoding the collective structure of this activity is the N times N covariance matrix. Prior analytical work on the covariance matrix has been limited to low-dimensional summary statistics. Recent work proposed an ansatz in which, at large N, the covariance matrix for a typical quenched realization takes the same form as that of a linear network with the same couplings, driven by independent noise, with DMFT order parameters setting the transfer function and the noise spectrum. Here, we derive this ansatz using the two-site cavity method, providing two derivations with complementary perspectives. The first decomposes each unit's activity into a linear response to its local field and a nonlinear residual, and shows that cross-covariances between residuals at distinct sites are strongly suppressed, so the residuals act as independent noise driving a linear network. The second derives a self-consistent matrix equation for the covariance matrix. A naive Gaussian closure for the joint statistics of local fields at distinct sites misses cross terms that, in a linear network, would be generated by an external drive. The cavity method recovers these terms from non-Gaussian contributions, revealing an emergent external drive. Higher-order cross-site moments follow a Wick-like decomposition into products of pairwise covariances at leading order, reducing them to the linear-equivalent form. We verify the predictions in simulations. These results extend linear equivalence from feedforward high-dimensional nonlinear systems, where the activations are independent of the weights, to recurrent networks, where the activations are correlated with the couplings that generate them.

The key-value (KV) cache is a primary memory bottleneck in Transformers. We propose Low-Rank Key-Value (LRKV) attention, which reduces KV cache memory by exploiting redundancy across attention heads, while being compute efficient. Each layer uses a shared full-rank KV projection augmented with low-rank, head-specific residuals, providing a continuous trade-off between complete sharing and full independence. After pretraining models of size 128M to 6.3B parameters, LRKV consistently achieves the lowest test loss among standard MHA, MQA/GQA, and MLA while using only 45-53\% of MHA's KV cache. LRKV reaches equivalent baseline quality 18-25\% faster (measured in training steps). After supervised midtraining, LRKV achieves the highest downstream task performance across ARC-Easy, ARC-Challenge, MMLU, GSM8K, and HumanEval benchmarks.

Ensuring the quality and integrity of medical images is crucial for maintaining diagnostic accuracy in deep learning-based Computer-Aided Diagnosis and Computer-Aided Detection (CAD) systems. Covariate shifts are subtle variations in the data distribution caused by different imaging devices or settings and can severely degrade model performance, similar to the effects of adversarial attacks. Therefore, it is vital to have a lightweight and fast method to assess the quality of these images prior to using CAD models. AdverX-Ray addresses this need by serving as an image-quality assessment layer, designed to detect covariate shifts effectively. This Adversarial Variational Autoencoder prioritizes the discriminator's role, using the suboptimal outputs of the generator as negative samples to fine-tune the discriminator's ability to identify high-frequency artifacts. Images generated by adversarial networks often exhibit severe high-frequency artifacts, guiding the discriminator to focus excessively on these components. This makes the discriminator ideal for this approach. Trained on patches from X-ray images of specific machine models, AdverX-Ray can evaluate whether a scan matches the training distribution, or if a scan from the same machine is captured under different settings. Extensive comparisons with various OOD detection methods show that AdverX-Ray significantly outperforms existing techniques, achieving a 96.2% average AUROC using only 64 random patches from an X-ray. Its lightweight and fast architecture makes it suitable for real-time applications, enhancing the reliability of medical imaging systems. The code and pretrained models are publicly available.

Hyperparameter tuning almost always means search: fit the model at every value on a grid, score each by cross-validation, and keep the winner. For spline regression that search is unnecessary. The optimal resolution can be solved for in closed form, to the accuracy an exhaustive search reaches, at a fraction of the compute. Three ingredients make this possible: classical approximation theory pins the squared bias to a known power of the resolution G, exactly the Kolmogorov n-width of the smoothness class; the basis dimension is an explicit polynomial in G; and leave-one-out error follows from a single fit via the PRESS identity. Balancing the two known curves gives the minimizer analytically. We extend this calculus to many coordinates by replacing ambient input dimension with interaction order, the number of active low-order components in an ANOVA decomposition, yielding a scaling law in which the optimal resolution and error are power functions of the effective density (sample size per active component), with input dimension absent from the exponent. The law becomes an algorithm. KORE (Kolmogorov-optimal Order-aware Resolution Estimation) fits two pilot resolutions, solves a leverage-calibrated 2x2 system for the bias and noise scales, and evaluates the closed-form plug-in resolution with a tiny leave-one-out certificate: about a dozen fits instead of a full grid sweep, with a consistency guarantee as the sample grows. Across additive and sparse pairwise targets up to 80 input dimensions, KORE matches exhaustive 3-fold cross-validation and the full classical ladder (GCV, Mallows' Cp, AIC, BIC) while fitting roughly 8x fewer models; on 36 real tabular datasets it ranks first among 21 methods in accuracy per unit of compute, ahead of tuned boosters and kernel machines. When complexity lives in low interaction order, solving for the resolution beats searching for it.

Owing to the impressive dot-product attention, the Transformers have been the dominant architectures in various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. Recently, the Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV) architecture follows a non-transformer architecture to eliminate the drawbacks of dot-product attention, where memory and computational complexity exhibits quadratic scaling with sequence length. Although RWKV has exploited a linearly tensor-product attention mechanism and achieved parallelized computations by deploying the time-sequential mode, it fails to capture long-range dependencies because of its limitation on looking back at previous information, compared with full information obtained by direct interactions in the standard transformer. Therefore, the paper devises the Retrospected Receptance Weighted Key Value (RRWKV) architecture via incorporating the retrospecting ability into the RWKV to effectively absorb information, which maintains memory and computational efficiency as well.

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

We present anyakrakusuma, an open-source Python library that solves the discrete static Schrödinger bridge problem, the entropically regularized counterpart of optimal transport, through a log-domain Sinkhorn--Knopp iteration and reconstructs the entropic interpolation between two empirical point clouds. The solver is paired with a diagnostic pipeline that characterizes the optimal coupling and the intermediate distributions through information-theoretic and geometric measures. We exercise the library on four idealized planar cases spanning a circle-to-circle dilation, a spiral-to-mixture fragmentation, a rigid reorientation of two moons, and a Lissajous-to-trefoil deformation. The log-domain formulation is necessary rather than merely convenient at the parameters studied, where the cost-to-regularization ratio reaches four hundred and the Gibbs kernel underflows double precision across most of its range; the iteration nonetheless attains a marginal residual of 10^{-9} and unit marginal fidelity in every case. Residual histories decay geometrically over approximately eight decades at per-iteration contraction factors between 0.966 and 0.976, which are local rates near the fixed point that lie many orders of magnitude below the worst-case Hilbert-metric bound. The covariance analysis recovers an imposed ninety-degree reorientation to within 0.07^circ, roughly forty times smaller than its uncertainty, across a masked interval of near-isotropy on which the principal axis is unobservable. The diagnostics are reported with explicit attention to the regimes in which each is well defined, including the differential entropy, which is meaningful only on the open interpolation interval. The presented cases are constructed rather than measured; quantitative application to empirical point clouds requires further study.

As an adaptive method, Shampoo employs a structured second-moment estimation, and its effectiveness has attracted growing attention. Prior work has primarily analyzed its estimation scheme through the Frobenius norm. Motivated by the natural connection between the second moment and a covariance matrix, we propose studying Shampoo's estimation as covariance estimation through the lens of Kullback-Leibler (KL) minimization. This alternative perspective reveals a previously hidden limitation, motivating improvements to Shampoo's design. Building on this insight, we develop a practical estimation scheme, termed KL-Shampoo, that eliminates Shampoo's reliance on Adam for stabilization, thereby removing the additional memory overhead introduced by Adam. Preliminary results show that KL-Shampoo improves Shampoo's performance, enabling it to stabilize without Adam and even outperform its Adam-stabilized variant, SOAP, in neural network pretraining.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

Efficiently serving large language models (LLMs) requires batching many requests together to reduce the cost per request. Yet, the key-value (KV) cache, which stores attention keys and values to avoid re-computations, significantly increases memory demands and becomes the new bottleneck in speed and memory usage. This memory demand increases with larger batch sizes and longer context lengths. Additionally, the inference speed is limited by the size of KV cache, as the GPU's SRAM must load the entire KV cache from the main GPU memory for each token generated, causing the computational core to be idle during this process. A straightforward and effective solution to reduce KV cache size is quantization, which decreases the total bytes taken by KV cache. However, there is a lack of in-depth studies that explore the element distribution of KV cache to understand the hardness and limitation of KV cache quantization. To fill the gap, we conducted a comprehensive study on the element distribution in KV cache of popular LLMs. Our findings indicate that the key cache should be quantized per-channel, i.e., group elements along the channel dimension and quantize them together. In contrast, the value cache should be quantized per-token. From this analysis, we developed a tuning-free 2bit KV cache quantization algorithm, named KIVI. With the hardware-friendly implementation, KIVI can enable Llama (Llama-2), Falcon, and Mistral models to maintain almost the same quality while using 2.6times less peak memory usage (including the model weight). This reduction in memory usage enables up to 4times larger batch size, bringing 2.35times sim 3.47times throughput on real LLM inference workload. The source code is available at https://github.com/jy-yuan/KIVI.

Production deployments often swap between different-sized models in a family for cost-quality cascading, mid-conversation switching, and routing, and each swap forces the receiver to repay the prefill from scratch. We propose cross-model KV cache transfer, where the receiver reuses the source's KV cache, skipping prefill. We find that cross-model KV has substantial linear structure across matched-KV pairs, where source and target share KV head count and per-head dimension. On Qwen3 14B->32B, one source layer explains 56% of variance in the target's keys and 32% in values, rising to 79% and 65% with multiple source layers. Building on this, we design a closed-form ridge mapper that operates per head and proceeds in three steps. First, for each target layer we select the top-k most predictive source layers and concatenate their KV as input. Second, we strip RoPE from the keys before mapping, so the fit is position-free and reusable across context lengths. Third, we fit ridge regression on a small calibration set of 500 FineWeb-Edu sequences of 1,024 tokens each. Surprisingly, across six pairs in three families, this linear mapper retains 73-98% of the receiver's standalone-prefill accuracy on four pairs, while two degrade sharply. A nonlinear MLP recovers up to +37 pp HellaSwag retention on the failures. The mapper runs 2.7-25x faster than re-prefill and remains stable across multi-turn handoff, making cross-model KV cache transfer practical.

The Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV) model offers a novel alternative to the Transformer architecture, merging the benefits of recurrent and attention-based systems. Unlike conventional Transformers, which depend heavily on self-attention, RWKV adeptly captures long-range dependencies with minimal computational demands. By utilizing a recurrent framework, RWKV addresses some computational inefficiencies found in Transformers, particularly in tasks with long sequences. RWKV has recently drawn considerable attention for its robust performance across multiple domains. Despite its growing popularity, no systematic review of the RWKV model exists. This paper seeks to fill this gap as the first comprehensive review of the RWKV architecture, its core principles, and its varied applications, such as natural language generation, natural language understanding, and computer vision. We assess how RWKV compares to traditional Transformer models, highlighting its capability to manage long sequences efficiently and lower computational costs. Furthermore, we explore the challenges RWKV encounters and propose potential directions for future research and advancement. We consistently maintain the related open-source materials at: https://github.com/MLGroupJLU/RWKV-Survey.

The probabilistic diffusion model has become highly effective across various domains. Typically, sampling from a diffusion model involves using a denoising distribution characterized by a Gaussian with a learned mean and either fixed or learned covariances. In this paper, we leverage the recently proposed covariance moment matching technique and introduce a novel method for learning the diagonal covariance. Unlike traditional data-driven diagonal covariance approximation approaches, our method involves directly regressing the optimal diagonal analytic covariance using a new, unbiased objective named Optimal Covariance Matching (OCM). This approach can significantly reduce the approximation error in covariance prediction. We demonstrate how our method can substantially enhance the sampling efficiency, recall rate and likelihood of commonly used diffusion models.

As efficient alternatives to softmax Attention, linear State-Space Models (SSMs) achieve constant memory and linear compute, but maintain only a lossy, fading summary of the past, often leading to inferior performance in recall-oriented tasks. We propose Gated KalmaNet (GKA), a layer that accounts for the full past while maintaining SSM-style efficiency. We ground our approach in the Kalman Filter (KF) framework, which provides a principled solution for optimal inference in dynamical systems. We show that several existing SSM layers (DeltaNet, Gated DeltaNet, and Kimi Delta Attention) are approximations to the KF recurrence that assume identity error covariance, thereby ignoring how past measurements (keys and values) should optimally influence state updates. In contrast, GKA computes the exact Kalman gain by maintaining the full error covariance. Under a steady-state assumption that enables parallelization, this reduces to solving an online ridge regression problem with constant memory and linear compute cost. A critical insight is that standard KF equations are numerically unstable in low-precision environments (like bfloat16) and hard to parallelize on modern hardware. We address this through: (1) adaptive regularization with input-dependent gating to control the condition number of the ridge regression for numerical stability, and (2) Chebyshev Iteration, which we show is more stable than conventional iterative solvers in low-precision settings. We further develop hardware-aware chunk-wise kernels to enable efficient training. Empirically, GKA outperforms existing SSM layers (like Mamba2 and Gated DeltaNet) on short-context tasks and achieves more than 10\% relative improvement on long-context RAG and LongQA tasks up to 128k tokens.

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

We introduce CrossWKV, a novel cross-attention mechanism for the state-based RWKV-7 model, designed to enhance the expressive power of text-to-image generation. Leveraging RWKV-7's linear-complexity Weighted Key-Value (WKV) architecture, CrossWKV integrates text and image modalities in a single pass, utilizing a generalized delta rule with vector-valued gating and low-rank adaptations (LoRA) to achieve superior cross-modal alignment. Unlike Transformer-based models, CrossWKV's non-diagonal, input-dependent transition matrix enables it to represent complex functions beyond the TC^0 complexity class, including all regular languages, as demonstrated by its ability to perform state-tracking tasks like S_5 permutation modeling. Evaluated within the Diffusion in RWKV-7 (DIR-7) on datasets such as LAION-5B and ImageNet, CrossWKV achieves a Frechet Inception Distance (FID) of 2.88 and a CLIP score of 0.33 on ImageNet 256x256, matching state-of-the-art performance while offering robust generalization across diverse prompts. The model's enhanced expressivity, combined with constant memory usage and linear scaling, positions it as a powerful solution for advanced cross-modal tasks, with potential applications in high-resolution generation and dynamic state manipulation.Code at https://github.com/TorchRWKV/flash-linear-attention

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

Pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) have enabled zero-shot forecasting on unseen target series. However, existing TSFMs often incur high computational cost and provide limited support for diverse variable types, often failing to account for covariates that exogenously influence target variability. To address these challenges, we propose CITRAS-FM, a tiny 7M-parameter TSFM that supports univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed zero-shot forecasting with real-time CPU inference. Built on a patch-based, decoder-only Transformer, CITRAS-FM introduces Shifted Attention into the cross-variate module to effectively exploit known covariates accessible throughout the forecast horizon. Moreover, to enable covariate-aware pretraining despite the scarcity of covariate-rich corpora, we propose CovSynth, which synthesizes realistic covariates from decomposed components of target series. Experiments on fev-bench, spanning 100 tasks across various settings, demonstrate that CITRAS-FM achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot accuracy among sub-10M TSFMs while delivering sub-0.1-second CPU inference, offering a strong balance between forecasting accuracy and real-time deployability.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.

K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) is one of the most used ML classifiers. However, if we observe closely, standard distance-weighted KNN and relative variants assume all 'k' neighbors are equally reliable. In heterogeneous feature space, this becomes a limitation that hinders reliability in predicting true levels of the observation. We propose DW-KNN (Double Weighted KNN), a transparent and robust variant that integrates exponential distance with neighbor validity. This enables instance-level interpretability, suppresses noisy or mislabeled samples, and reduces hyperparameter sensitivity. Comprehensive evaluation on 9 data-sets helps to demonstrate that DW-KNN achieves 0.8988 accuracy on average. It ranks 2nd among six methods and within 0.2% of the best-performing Ensemble KNN. It also exhibits the lowest cross-validation variance (0.0156), indicating reliable prediction stability. Statistical significance test confirmed (p < 0.001) improvement over compactness weighted KNN (+4.09\%) and Kernel weighted KNN (+1.13\%). The method provides a simple yet effective alternative to complex adaptive schemes, particularly valuable for high-stakes applications requiring explainable predictions.

Test-time scaling is a powerful approach to obtain better reasoning in large language models, but it becomes memory-bottlenecked during long-horizon decoding, as the KV-cache grows. KV-cache quantization can help improve this, but current methods are evaluated under prefill-like settings and errors behave differently under autoregressive decoding. We show that in the latter regime, quantization errors accumulate across timesteps, driven primarily by incorrect token scales. We introduce KVarN, a calibration-free KV-cache quantizer that applies a Hadamard rotation followed by a dual-scaling variance normalization across both axes of the K and V matrices. We find that this combination fixes outlying token-scale errors and substantially reduces error accumulation over existing baselines. KVarN establishes a new state-of-theart for KV-cache quantization on generative benchmarks, including MATH500, AIME24 and HumanEval, at 2-bit precision. A vLLM implementation of the KVarN method is available at https://github.com/huawei-csl/KVarN

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

Volumetry is one of the principal downstream applications of 3D medical image segmentation, for example, to detect abnormal tissue growth or for surgery planning. Conformal Prediction is a promising framework for uncertainty quantification, providing calibrated predictive intervals associated with automatic volume measurements. However, this methodology is based on the hypothesis that calibration and test samples are exchangeable, an assumption that is in practice often violated in medical image applications. A weighted formulation of Conformal Prediction can be framed to mitigate this issue, but its empirical investigation in the medical domain is still lacking. A potential reason is that it relies on the estimation of the density ratio between the calibration and test distributions, which is likely to be intractable in scenarios involving high-dimensional data. To circumvent this, we propose an efficient approach for density ratio estimation relying on the compressed latent representations generated by the segmentation model. Our experiments demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to reduce the coverage error in the presence of covariate shifts, in both synthetic and real-world settings. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/benolmbrt/wcp_miccai

Large Language Models (LLMs) with long context windows enable powerful applications but come at the cost of high memory consumption to store the Key and Value states (KV-Cache). Recent studies attempted to merge KV-cache from multiple layers into shared representations, yet these approaches either require expensive pretraining or rely on assumptions of high per-token cosine similarity across layers which generally does not hold in practice. We find that the dominant singular vectors are remarkably well-aligned across multiple layers of the KV-Cache. Exploiting this insight, we propose xKV, a simple post-training method that applies Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) on the KV-Cache of grouped layers. xKV consolidates the KV-Cache of multiple layers into a shared low-rank subspace, significantly reducing KV-Cache sizes. Through extensive evaluations on the RULER long-context benchmark with widely-used LLMs (e.g., Llama-3.1 and Qwen2.5), xKV achieves up to 6.8x higher compression rates than state-of-the-art inter-layer technique while improving accuracy by 2.7%. Moreover, xKV is compatible with the emerging Multi-Head Latent Attention (MLA) (e.g., DeepSeek-Coder-V2), yielding a notable 3x compression rates on coding tasks without performance degradation. These results highlight xKV's strong capability and versatility in addressing memory bottlenecks for long-context LLM inference. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/abdelfattah-lab/xKV.

The increasing size of the Key-Value (KV) cache during the Large Language Models long-context inference is the main obstacle for its balance between the deployment cost and task accuracy. To reduce the KV cache size in such scenarios, most previous efforts leveraged on the attention weight to evict non-critical cache tokens. But there is a trade-off in those methods, they usually require major modifiation of the inference infrastructure and significant computation overhead. Base on the fact that the Large Lanuage models are autoregresssive models, we propose {\it LagKV}, a KV allocation strategy only relying on straight forward comparison among KV themself. It is a totally attention free method which offers easy integration to the main stream inference platform and comparable performance comparing to other complicated KV compression methods. Results on LongBench and PasskeyRetrieval show that, our approach achieves nearly zero loss when the ratio is 2times and approx 90% of the original model performance for 8times. Especially in the 64-digit passkey retrieval task, our mehod outperforms the attention weight based method H_2O over 60% with same compression ratios. Our code is available at https://github.com/AI-Lab-China-Merchants-Bank/LagKV.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Distance correlation is a novel class of multivariate dependence measure, taking positive values between 0 and 1, and applicable to random vectors of arbitrary dimensions, not necessarily equal. It offers several advantages over the well-known Pearson correlation coefficient, the most important is that distance correlation equals zero if and only if the random vectors are independent. There are two different estimators of the distance correlation available in the literature. The first one, proposed by Székely et al. (2007), is based on an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the distance covariance which turns out to be a V-statistic. The second one builds on an unbiased estimator of the distance covariance proposed in Székely et al. (2014), proved to be an U-statistic by Székely and Huo (2016). This study evaluates their efficiency (mean squared error) and compares computational times for both methods under different dependence structures. Under conditions of independence or near-independence, the V-estimates are biased, while the U-estimator frequently cannot be computed due to negative values. To address this challenge, a convex linear combination of the former estimators is proposed and studied, yielding good results regardless of the level of dependence.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently demonstrated impressive image generation quality while maintaining low latency. However, they suffer from severe KV-cache memory constraints, often requiring gigabytes of memory per generated image. We introduce HeatKV, a novel compression method that adapts cache allocation in each head based on its attention to previously generated scales. Using a small offline calibration set, the attention heads are ranked according to their attention scores over prior scales. Based on this ranking, we construct a static pruning schedule tailored to a given memory budget. Applied to the Infinity-2B model, HeatKV achieves 2 times higher compression ratio in memory allocation for KV cache compared to existing methods, while maintaining similar or better image fidelity, prompt alignment and human perception score. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) for VAR model KV-cache compression, showcasing the effectiveness of fine-grained, head-specific cache allocation.

Key-value (KV) caching enables fast autoregressive decoding but at long contexts becomes a dominant bottleneck in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) capacity and bandwidth. A common mitigation is to compress cached keys and values by projecting per-head matrices to a lower rank, storing only the projections in the HBM. However, existing post-training approaches typically fit these projections using SVD-style proxy objectives, which may poorly reflect end-to-end reconstruction after softmax, value mixing, and subsequent decoder-layer transformations. For these reasons, we introduce StiefAttention, a post-training KV-cache compression method that learns orthonormal projection bases by directly minimizing decoder-layer output reconstruction error. StiefAttention additionally constructs layer-wise error-rank profiles over candidate ranks, enabling sequential rank allocation under a user-specified KV cache budget. Notably, on Llama3-8B under the same conditions, StiefAttention outperforms EigenAttention by 4.2 points on C4 perplexity and 8.9 points on 0-shot MMLU accuracy at iso-compression, yielding lower relative error and higher cosine similarity with respect to the original decoder-layer outputs.

Recently, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have rapidly gained popularity for their strong generation and reasoning capabilities given diverse multimodal inputs. However, these models incur significant computational and memory overhead during inference, which greatly hinders the efficient deployment in practical scenarios. The extensive key-value (KV) cache, necessitated by the lengthy input and output sequences, notably contributes to the high inference cost. Based on this, recent works have investigated ways to reduce the KV cache size for higher efficiency. Although effective, they generally overlook the distinct importance distributions of KV vectors across layers and maintain the same cache size for each layer during the next token prediction. This results in the significant contextual information loss for certain layers, leading to notable performance decline. To address this, we present PrefixKV. It reframes the challenge of determining KV cache sizes for all layers into the task of searching for the optimal global prefix configuration. With an adaptive layer-wise KV retention recipe based on binary search, the maximum contextual information can thus be preserved in each layer, facilitating the generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance compared with others. It exhibits superior inference efficiency and generation quality trade-offs, showing promising potential for practical applications. Code is available at https://github.com/THU-MIG/PrefixKV.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

We consider the problem of estimating how well a model class is capable of fitting a distribution of labeled data. We show that it is often possible to accurately estimate this "learnability" even when given an amount of data that is too small to reliably learn any accurate model. Our first result applies to the setting where the data is drawn from a d-dimensional distribution with isotropic covariance (or known covariance), and the label of each datapoint is an arbitrary noisy function of the datapoint. In this setting, we show that with O(d) samples, one can accurately estimate the fraction of the variance of the label that can be explained via the best linear function of the data. In contrast to this sublinear sample size, finding an approximation of the best-fit linear function requires on the order of d samples. Our sublinear sample results and approach also extend to the non-isotropic setting, where the data distribution has an (unknown) arbitrary covariance matrix: we show that, if the label y of point x is a linear function with independent noise, y = langle x , βrangle + noise with |β| bounded, the variance of the noise can be estimated to error ε with O(d^{1-1/1/ε}) if the covariance matrix has bounded condition number, or O(d^{1-sqrtε}) if there are no bounds on the condition number. We also establish that these sample complexities are optimal, to constant factors. Finally, we extend these techniques to the setting of binary classification, where we obtain analogous sample complexities for the problem of estimating the prediction error of the best linear classifier, in a natural model of binary labeled data. We demonstrate the practical viability of our approaches on several real and synthetic datasets.

Test-time scaling has emerged as a prominent research direction in machine learning, enabling models to enhance their expressive capabilities during inference.Transformers, renowned for striking a delicate balance between efficiency and expressiveness, have benefited from test-time scaling techniques that leverage an expanding key-value (KV) cache to significantly improve performance.In this paper, we introduce a novel state-based approach to test-time scaling, which we term state tuning, tailored to the RNN-based RWKV-7 model.By exploiting the unique strengths of RWKV-7, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the target task without altering the model's pre-trained weights. Our approach centers on three key innovations. First, we develop an observer framework that allows a smaller model to replicate and learn the state dynamics of the RWKV-7 model. Second, we employ a kernel method to dynamically upscale the state size, enhancing the model's capacity to capture intricate patterns. Third, we integrate Decorrelated Backpropagation (DBP) to optimize the upscaled state matrix, thereby improving convergence and expressivity. By tuning only the state matrix, we demonstrate that a smaller model can outperform larger models on the given task. This method preserves the efficiency of the original RWKV-7 architecture while harnessing the power of test-time scaling to deliver superior results. Our findings underscore the potential of state tuning as an effective strategy for advancing model performance in resource-constrained settings. Our code is https://github.com/TorchRWKV/flash-linear-attention.

Motivated by the problem of fast processing of attention matrices, we study fast algorithms for computing matrix-vector products for asymmetric Gaussian Kernel matrices Kin R^{ntimes n}. K's columns are indexed by a set of n keys k_1,k_2ldots, k_nin R^d, rows by a set of n queries q_1,q_2,ldots,q_nin R^d , and its i,j entry is K_{ij} = e^{-|q_i-k_j|_2^2/2sigma^2} for some bandwidth parameter sigma>0. Given a vector xin R^n and error parameter epsilon>0, our task is to output a yin R^n such that |Kx-y|_2leq epsilon |x|_2 in time subquadratic in n and linear in d. Our algorithms rely on the following modelling assumption about the matrices K: the sum of the entries of K scales linearly in n, as opposed to worst case quadratic growth. We validate this assumption experimentally, for Gaussian kernel matrices encountered in various settings such as fast attention computation in LLMs. We obtain the first subquadratic-time algorithm that works under this assumption, for unrestricted vectors.

The KV cache is a dominant memory bottleneck for LLM inference. While 4-bit KV quantization preserves accuracy, 2-bit often degrades it, especially on long-context reasoning. We close this gap via an algorithm-system co-design for mixed-precision KV caching: Kitty. On the algorithm side, extensive experiments show that Dynamic Channel-wise Precision Boost -- which ranks Key-cache channels by sensitivity and keeps only a small fraction at higher precision -- maintains near-zero loss in accuracy drop while approaching 2-bit memory. The main challenge is handling dynamic 4-bit channel boosts while keeping the page layout coalesced and the dequantization uniform, with no scattered reads or hard-coded masks. Kitty addresses these issues by decompose each mixed-precision Key page into two tensors with unified 2-bit precision. Based on this, Kitty provides a page-centric KV layout, Triton-compatible page dequantization kernels, and a lightweight runtime pipeline that preserves coalescing and avoids divergence. Across seven tasks and two model families (Qwen3, LLaMA3), Kitty cuts KV memory by nearly 8x with negligible accuracy loss, enabling up to 8x larger batches and 2.1x-4.1x higher throughput under the same memory budget. We release the full implementation of Kitty at https://github.com/Summer-Summer/Kitty.

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

We present Key-Value Means ("KVM"), a novel block-recurrence for attention that can accommodate either fixed-size or growing state. Equipping a strong transformer baseline with fixed-size KVM attention layers yields a strong O(N) chunked RNN, while adding only an insignificant number of new parameters. We train a transformer with a growable KVM cache and show it performs competitively on long-context tests with only subquadratic prefill time and sublinear state growth. KVM is implementable with standard operations and without custom kernels, and supports chunk-wise parallelizable training and prefill. It provides many of the benefits of both traditional transformers (expandable context memory, chunk-wise parallelizable training and prefill) and linear RNNs in a single unified package. It can be used on every layer, saving KV-cache memory, and allowing a continuous range of choices of prefill time complexity between O(N) and O(N^2). It can also be implemented in a hybrid solution in tandem with LRNN layers in place of traditional attention, to supplement the LRNN with improved sublinear memory growth context length usage and long context decoding. We release our code at https://github.com/recursal/KVM-paper and trained models at https://huggingface.co/collections/recursal/key-value-means under the Apache 2.0 license.

Kernelized Stein discrepancy (KSD) is a score-based discrepancy widely used in goodness-of-fit tests. It can be applied even when the target distribution has an unknown normalising factor, such as in Bayesian analysis. We show theoretically and empirically that the KSD test can suffer from low power when the target and the alternative distributions have the same well-separated modes but differ in mixing proportions. We propose to perturb the observed sample via Markov transition kernels, with respect to which the target distribution is invariant. This allows us to then employ the KSD test on the perturbed sample. We provide numerical evidence that with suitably chosen transition kernels the proposed approach can lead to substantially higher power than the KSD test.

The kernel thinning (KT) algorithm of Dwivedi and Mackey (2021) compresses a probability distribution more effectively than independent sampling by targeting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and leveraging a less smooth square-root kernel. Here we provide four improvements. First, we show that KT applied directly to the target RKHS yields tighter, dimension-free guarantees for any kernel, any distribution, and any fixed function in the RKHS. Second, we show that, for analytic kernels like Gaussian, inverse multiquadric, and sinc, target KT admits maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) guarantees comparable to or better than those of square-root KT without making explicit use of a square-root kernel. Third, we prove that KT with a fractional power kernel yields better-than-Monte-Carlo MMD guarantees for non-smooth kernels, like Laplace and Mat\'ern, that do not have square-roots. Fourth, we establish that KT applied to a sum of the target and power kernels (a procedure we call KT+) simultaneously inherits the improved MMD guarantees of power KT and the tighter individual function guarantees of target KT. In our experiments with target KT and KT+, we witness significant improvements in integration error even in 100 dimensions and when compressing challenging differential equation posteriors.

We study a missing-value imputation method, termed kNNSampler, that imputes a given unit's missing response by randomly sampling from the observed responses of the k most similar units to the given unit in terms of the observed covariates. This method can sample unknown missing values from their distributions, quantify the uncertainties of missing values, and be readily used for multiple imputation. Unlike popular kNNImputer, which estimates the conditional mean of a missing response given an observed covariate, kNNSampler is theoretically shown to estimate the conditional distribution of a missing response given an observed covariate. Experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in recovering the distribution of missing values. The code for kNNSampler is made publicly available (https://github.com/SAP/knn-sampler).

The key-value (KV) cache is a primary capacity and bandwidth bottleneck in long-context LLM serving. We present Minima-KV, a retention-preserving hierarchy for mixed-format paged attention. Recent and protected Anchor pages remain in FP8, while older non-anchor pages move to packed TQ3; every live-request page remains addressable. Format-specific kernels compute partial attention states and combine them through a globally normalized online-softmax merge, enabling direct heterogeneous decode without a cache-sized dense shadow. Across separate, configuration-bound Qwen3.6-27B profiles on a single 96-GB NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell GPU, deployment accounting reports 18.3 KiB of attention KV per live token, corresponding to 3.50x compression relative to BF16 and 1.75x relative to FP8. A materializing quality profile matches its dense control on 16K RULER needle-in-a-haystack tasks. On the same 503-question LongBench v2 set, measured deltas are -0.80, -0.60, and -0.40 percentage points at 16K, 32K, and 64K. A separate single-pair direct-decode canary with two 59,008-token requests measures 3.625x active-KV compression and 0.9821x throughput relative to its control, routes all 16 full-attention layers without fallback, and retains no dense shadow. These results establish a practical mixed-format path for compressing long-context state without evicting live-request KV pages.

This article investigates signal estimation in wireless transmission (i.e., receive beamforming) from the perspective of statistical machine learning, where the transmit signals may be from an integrated sensing and communication system; that is, 1) signals may be not only discrete constellation points but also arbitrary complex values; 2) signals may be spatially correlated. Particular attention is paid to handling various uncertainties such as the uncertainty of the transmit signal covariance, the uncertainty of the channel matrix, the uncertainty of the channel noise covariance, the existence of channel impulse noises, and the limited sample size of pilots. To proceed, a distributionally robust machine learning framework that is insensitive to the above uncertainties is proposed, which reveals that channel estimation is not a necessary operation. For optimal linear estimation, the proposed framework includes several existing beamformers as special cases such as diagonal loading and eigenvalue thresholding. For optimal nonlinear estimation, estimators are limited in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces and neural network function spaces, and corresponding uncertainty-aware solutions (e.g., kernelized diagonal loading) are derived. In addition, we prove that the ridge and kernel ridge regression methods in machine learning are distributionally robust against diagonal perturbation in feature covariance.

We provide evidence of quantum kernel advantage under noiseless simulation in binary insurance classification on MIMIC-CXR chest radiographs using quantum support vector machines (QSVM) with frozen embeddings from three medical foundation models (MedSigLIP-448, RAD-DINO, ViT-patch32). We propose a two-tier fair comparison framework in which both classifiers receive identical PCA-q features. At Tier 1 (untuned QSVM vs. untuned linear SVM, C = 1 both sides), QSVM wins minority-class F1 in all 18 tested configurations (17 at p < 0.001, 1 at p < 0.01). The classical linear kernel collapses to majority-class prediction on 90-100% of seeds at every qubit count, while QSVM maintains non-trivial recall. At q = 11 (MedSigLIP-448 plateau center), QSVM achieves mean F1 = 0.343 vs. classical F1 = 0.050 (F1 gain = +0.293, p < 0.001) without hyperparameter tuning. Under Tier 2 (untuned QSVM vs. C-tuned RBF SVM), QSVM wins all seven tested configurations (mean gain +0.068, max +0.112). Eigenspectrum analysis reveals quantum kernel effective rank reaches 69.80 at q = 11, far exceeding linear kernel rank, while classical collapse remains C-invariant. A full qubit sweep reveals architecture-dependent concentration onset across models. Code: https://github.com/sebasmos/qml-medimage

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

We compare two strategies for compressing the KV cache in transformer inference: rank reduction (discard dimensions) and quantization (keep all dimensions, reduce precision). At matched storage budgets across five models (124M-14B, MHA and GQA), we find that quantization consistently outperforms rank reduction by 4-364 PPL depending on model and compression level. The gap persists even when rank reduction is combined with quantization in hybrid baselines, and it grows with GQA aggressiveness. On LAMBADA, INT4 matches FP16 accuracy (+0.23 PPL on Mistral 7B, +0.58 on GPT-2) while rank-32 at identical storage collapses to 0.4%. We trace this gap to a structural asymmetry: under softmax attention routing, removing a dimension can flip which token is attended (a discrete failure), while quantization noise is bounded and typically preserves score ordering. We formalize this via a perturbation result showing projection damage exceeds quantization damage by 3 x 2^(2b) per direction under the softmax Fisher metric. A basis ablation confirms the finding is basis-independent (spread <0.4 PPL), establishing that the advantage comes from preserving dimensions, not from a better coordinate system. Joint K+V INT4 quantization achieves 75% total KV reduction at only +0.18 PPL on Mistral 7B.

Despite rapid gains in scale, research evaluation still relies on opaque, lagging proxies. To serve the scientific community, we pursue transparency: reproducible, auditable epistemic classification useful for funding and policy. Here we formalize KGX3 as a scenario-based model for mapping Kuhnian stages from research papers, prove determinism of the classification pipeline, and define the epistemic manifold that yields paradigm maps. We report validation across recent corpora, operational complexity at global scale, and governance that preserves interpretability while protecting core IP. The system delivers early, actionable signals of drift, crisis, and shift unavailable to citation metrics or citations-anchored NLP. KGX3 is the latest iteration of a deterministic epistemic engine developed since 2019, originating as Soph.io (2020), advanced as iKuhn (2024), and field-tested through Preprint Watch in 2025.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

Multi-agent LLM systems split work across models, so answering often requires knowledge that sits in another agent's context: a Sharer has encoded information that a Receiver needs to complete its task. They usually communicate by exchanging text, which puts autoregressive decoding on the critical path and reduces the exchange to a discrete message written without sight of the receiver's state. Recent latent protocols instead translate the sharer's key-value (KV) cache into the receiver's: C2C supports heterogeneous models but requires both to read the same input, while LCF-X removes this shared-context requirement through position-free sharer-cache pooling. Three restrictions remain: LCF-X compresses the sharer alone, supplies the same layer-local summary to every receiver position with no joint cross-layer memory to retrieve from, and assumes matched layer count and KV geometry. We introduce XKV, which lifts all three: learned-query attention pools both caches; self-attention over receiver-aligned layer tokens, with a learned layer map reconciling different depths, mixes the pooled summaries into a compact joint memory; and a shared position decoder lets every raw receiver cache position retrieve its own per-head-gated residual in the receiver's native KV geometry. Both models stay frozen and may differ in family, depth, KV-head count, head dimension, and tokenizer; only the translator is trained. Across 45 dataset-model-pair settings (six heterogeneous and three same-model ordered pairings, five datasets), XKV attains the highest macro score and best average rank, improving on LCF-X on every dataset (by 4.6 exact-match and 4.2 F1 points on ROPES) and surpassing text communication on four of the five, while training 76% fewer parameters and translating a cache pair 10.3x faster (5.8 vs. 59.9 ms); end to end, XKV is 26% faster than LCF-X and 6.8x faster than text communication.

The key-value (KV) cache dominates memory bandwidth and footprint in long-context autoregressive inference. Recent rotation-preconditioned codecs (TurboQuant, PolarQuant) show that a structured random rotation followed by a per-coordinate scalar quantizer matched to an analytically tractable marginal is a near-optimal recipe for KV compression. OCTOPUS advances this paradigm through joint quantization of rotated coordinate triplets. Each triplet's direction is mapped to a square via an octahedral parameterization, and the two resulting coordinates and the triplet norm are Lloyd-Max quantized against implementation-matched marginals. Optimizing the per-triplet squared error gives a strictly non-uniform bit allocation depending only on the total dimensionality of the keys. We find the finite-dimensional quality optimum with sweeps to be constant on every real decoder we test. The codec is data-oblivious, online, and deterministic given a seed. Across text, video, and audio, OCTOPUS matches or beats every prior rotation codec at every reported bit width and metric, with a lead that grows as bits drop for extreme compression. Furthermore, a fused Triton implementation reconstructs keys on the fly without materializing the uncompressed key, so the codec adds no decode-time bandwidth or latency over the existing dequantization. Project Page: https://octopus-quant.github.io/

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling has garnered significant attention for its innovative next-scale prediction approach, which yields substantial improvements in efficiency, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. Nevertheless, the coarse-to-fine methodology inherent in VAR results in exponential growth of the KV cache during inference, causing considerable memory consumption and computational redundancy. To address these bottlenecks, we introduce ScaleKV, a novel KV cache compression framework tailored for VAR architectures. ScaleKV leverages two critical observations: varying cache demands across transformer layers and distinct attention patterns at different scales. Based on these insights, ScaleKV categorizes transformer layers into two functional groups: drafters and refiners. Drafters exhibit dispersed attention across multiple scales, thereby requiring greater cache capacity. Conversely, refiners focus attention on the current token map to process local details, consequently necessitating substantially reduced cache capacity. ScaleKV optimizes the multi-scale inference pipeline by identifying scale-specific drafters and refiners, facilitating differentiated cache management tailored to each scale. Evaluation on the state-of-the-art text-to-image VAR model family, Infinity, demonstrates that our approach effectively reduces the required KV cache memory to 10% while preserving pixel-level fidelity.

Riemannian geometry has been applied to Brain Computer Interface (BCI) for brain signals classification yielding promising results. Studying electroencephalographic (EEG) signals from their associated covariance matrices allows a mitigation of common sources of variability (electronic, electrical, biological) by constructing a representation which is invariant to these perturbations. While working in Euclidean space with covariance matrices is known to be error-prone, one might take advantage of algorithmic advances in information geometry and matrix manifold to implement methods for Symmetric Positive-Definite (SPD) matrices. This paper proposes a comprehensive review of the actual tools of information geometry and how they could be applied on covariance matrices of EEG. In practice, covariance matrices should be estimated, thus a thorough study of all estimators is conducted on real EEG dataset. As a main contribution, this paper proposes an online implementation of a classifier in the Riemannian space and its subsequent assessment in Steady-State Visually Evoked Potential (SSVEP) experimentations.

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN) along with two probabilistic deep learning models: DeepVAR and GPVAR to the task of one-day ahead multivariate forecasting. We then use these forecasts to optimize portfolios of stocks and cryptocurrencies. Our analysis presents results across different combinations of observation windows and rebalancing periods to compare performances of classical and deep learning variance-covariance estimation methods. The conclusions of the study are that although the strategies (portfolios) performance differed significantly between different combinations of parameters, generally the best results in terms of the information ratio and annualized returns are obtained using the LSTM-RNN models. Moreover, longer observation windows translate into better performance of the deep learning models indicating that these methods require longer windows to be able to efficiently capture the long-term dependencies of the variance-covariance matrix structure. Strategies with less frequent rebalancing typically perform better than these with the shortest rebalancing windows across all considered methods.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Efficient real-world deployments of large language models (LLMs) rely on Key-Value (KV) caching for processing and generating long outputs, reducing the need for repetitive computation. For large contexts, Key-Value caches can take up tens of gigabytes of device memory, as they store vector representations for each token and layer. Recent work has shown that the cached vectors can be compressed through quantization, pruning or merging, but these techniques often compromise quality towards higher compression rates. In this work, we aim to improve Key & Value compression by exploiting two observations: 1) the inherent dependencies between keys and values across different layers, and 2) high-compression mechanisms for internal network states. We propose AQUA-KV, an adaptive quantization for Key-Value caches that relies on compact adapters to exploit existing dependencies between Keys and Values, and aims to "optimally" compress the information that cannot be predicted. AQUA-KV significantly improves compression rates, while maintaining high accuracy on state-of-the-art LLM families. On Llama 3.2 LLMs, we achieve near-lossless inference at 2-2.5 bits per value with under 1% relative error in perplexity and LongBench scores. AQUA-KV is one-shot, simple, and efficient: it can be calibrated on a single GPU within 1-6 hours, even for 70B models.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

Serving large language models (LLMs) at scale necessitates efficient key-value (KV) cache management. KV caches can be reused across conversation turns via shared-prefix prompts that are common in iterative code editing and chat. However, stale caches consume scarce GPU memory, require offloading, or force recomputation. We present KVTC, a lightweight transform coder that compresses KV caches for compact on-GPU and off-GPU storage. Drawing on classical media compression, KVTC combines PCA-based feature decorrelation, adaptive quantization, and entropy coding. It requires only a brief initial calibration and leaves model parameters unchanged. By exploiting redundancies in KV caches, KVTC achieves up to 20times compression while maintaining reasoning and long-context accuracy, and 40times or higher for specific use cases. We test KVTC with Llama 3, Mistral NeMo, and R1-Qwen 2.5 models across benchmarks including AIME25, LiveCodeBench, GSM8K, MMLU, Qasper, RULER, and MATH-500. It consistently outperforms inference-time baselines such as token eviction, quantization, and SVD-based methods, while achieving higher compression ratios. These results support KVTC as a practical building block for memory-efficient LLM serving with reusable KV caches.

This paper aims to overcome a major obstacle in scaling RL for reasoning with LLMs, namely the collapse of policy entropy. Such phenomenon is consistently observed across vast RL runs without entropy intervention, where the policy entropy dropped sharply at the early training stage, this diminished exploratory ability is always accompanied with the saturation of policy performance. In practice, we establish a transformation equation R=-a*e^H+b between entropy H and downstream performance R. This empirical law strongly indicates that, the policy performance is traded from policy entropy, thus bottlenecked by its exhaustion, and the ceiling is fully predictable H=0, R=-a+b. Our finding necessitates entropy management for continuous exploration toward scaling compute for RL. To this end, we investigate entropy dynamics both theoretically and empirically. Our derivation highlights that, the change in policy entropy is driven by the covariance between action probability and the change in logits, which is proportional to its advantage when using Policy Gradient-like algorithms. Empirical study shows that, the values of covariance term and entropy differences matched exactly, supporting the theoretical conclusion. Moreover, the covariance term stays mostly positive throughout training, further explaining why policy entropy would decrease monotonically. Through understanding the mechanism behind entropy dynamics, we motivate to control entropy by restricting the update of high-covariance tokens. Specifically, we propose two simple yet effective techniques, namely Clip-Cov and KL-Cov, which clip and apply KL penalty to tokens with high covariances respectively. Experiments show that these methods encourage exploration, thus helping policy escape entropy collapse and achieve better downstream performance.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

We consider in this paper the problem of optimal experiment design where a decision maker can choose which points to sample to obtain an estimate hatβ of the hidden parameter β^{star} of an underlying linear model. The key challenge of this work lies in the heteroscedasticity assumption that we make, meaning that each covariate has a different and unknown variance. The goal of the decision maker is then to figure out on the fly the optimal way to allocate the total budget of T samples between covariates, as sampling several times a specific one will reduce the variance of the estimated model around it (but at the cost of a possible higher variance elsewhere). By trying to minimize the ell^2-loss E [lVerthatβ-β^{star}rVert^2] the decision maker is actually minimizing the trace of the covariance matrix of the problem, which corresponds then to online A-optimal design. Combining techniques from bandit and convex optimization we propose a new active sampling algorithm and we compare it with existing ones. We provide theoretical guarantees of this algorithm in different settings, including a O(T^{-2}) regret bound in the case where the covariates form a basis of the feature space, generalizing and improving existing results. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

This paper is the second in the series Commutative Scaling of Width and Depth (WD) about commutativity of infinite width and depth limits in deep neural networks. Our aim is to understand the behaviour of neural functions (functions that depend on a neural network model) as width and depth go to infinity (in some sense), and eventually identify settings under which commutativity holds, i.e. the neural function tends to the same limit no matter how width and depth limits are taken. In this paper, we formally introduce and define the commutativity framework, and discuss its implications on neural network design and scaling. We study commutativity for the neural covariance kernel which reflects how network layers separate data. Our findings extend previous results established in [55] by showing that taking the width and depth to infinity in a deep neural network with skip connections, when branches are suitably scaled to avoid exploding behaviour, result in the same covariance structure no matter how that limit is taken. This has a number of theoretical and practical implications that we discuss in the paper. The proof techniques in this paper are novel and rely on tools that are more accessible to readers who are not familiar with stochastic calculus (used in the proofs of WD(I))).

Large language models rely on kv-caches to avoid redundant computation during autoregressive decoding, but as context length grows, reading and writing the cache can quickly saturate GPU memory bandwidth. Recent work has explored KV-cache compression, yet most approaches neglect the data-dependent nature of kv-caches and their variation across layers. We introduce KV-CoRE KV-cache Compressibility by Rank Evaluation), an SVD-based method for quantifying the data-dependent low-rank compressibility of kv-caches. KV-CoRE computes the optimal low-rank approximation under the Frobenius norm and, being gradient-free and incremental, enables efficient dataset-level, layer-wise evaluation. Using this method, we analyze multiple models and datasets spanning five English domains and sixteen languages, uncovering systematic patterns that link compressibility to model architecture, training data, and language coverage. As part of this analysis, we employ the Normalized Effective Rank as a metric of compressibility and show that it correlates strongly with performance degradation under compression. Our study establishes a principled evaluation framework and the first large-scale benchmark of kv-cache compressibility in LLMs, offering insights for dynamic, data-aware compression and data-centric model development.

Accurate and efficient long-term multivariate time series forecasting requires capturing recurring temporal structure while keeping inference cheap across many variables and horizons. Frequency-space models represent long-range and periodic variation compactly, but they typically process the real and imaginary spectral components as weakly coupled streams and treat periodic cues as ordinary input features, even when such cues are unreliable. This paper proposes FRWKV-Plus, a lightweight periodic-aware frequency-space forecasting model built on the efficient FRWKV backbone. FRWKV-Plus introduces a cross-branch spectral gate that reweights each spectral branch using a summary of its sibling branch, and a trust-gated residual correction that converts compact within-period context into a bounded, sign-flexible adjustment of these gates under a learned, data-dependent trust score. By construction, the correction is identity-preserving at initialization and strictly bounded, so periodic evidence can refine but never dominate or invert the base interaction. On seven standard benchmarks, FRWKV-Plus is consistently competitive with strong linear, frequency-domain, recurrent-style, and Transformer-based forecasters while preserving the lightweight profile of the backbone. Controlled three-seed ablations show that each component contributes, that the benefit is modest on strongly periodic data and pronounced on the harder Exchange and ILI datasets, and that the within-period context is the most influential single component. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/yangqingyuan-byte/FRWKV-plus.

Currently, deep learning-based methods for remote sensing pansharpening have advanced rapidly. However, many existing methods struggle to fully leverage feature heterogeneity and redundancy, thereby limiting their effectiveness. We use the covariance matrix to model the feature heterogeneity and redundancy and propose Correlation-Aware Covariance Weighting (CACW) to adjust them. CACW captures these correlations through the covariance matrix, which is then processed by a nonlinear function to generate weights for adjustment. Building upon CACW, we introduce a general adaptive dual-level weighting mechanism (ADWM) to address these challenges from two key perspectives, enhancing a wide range of existing deep-learning methods. First, Intra-Feature Weighting (IFW) evaluates correlations among channels within each feature to reduce redundancy and enhance unique information. Second, Cross-Feature Weighting (CFW) adjusts contributions across layers based on inter-layer correlations, refining the final output. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior performance of ADWM compared to recent state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. Furthermore, we validate the effectiveness of our approach through generality experiments, redundancy visualization, comparison experiments, key variables and complexity analysis, and ablation studies. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jie-1203/ADWM.

We extend conformal prediction methodology beyond the case of exchangeable data. In particular, we show that a weighted version of conformal prediction can be used to compute distribution-free prediction intervals for problems in which the test and training covariate distributions differ, but the likelihood ratio between these two distributions is known---or, in practice, can be estimated accurately with access to a large set of unlabeled data (test covariate points). Our weighted extension of conformal prediction also applies more generally, to settings in which the data satisfies a certain weighted notion of exchangeability. We discuss other potential applications of our new conformal methodology, including latent variable and missing data problems.

We develop a multi-rate distributed unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear networks without a fusion center. Local continuous-discrete UKFs run on a common base grid, update at their own sampling instants, and exchange estimates within one-hop neighborhoods. Under a windowed collective-detectability condition, diffusion of information matrices gives uniformly bounded quotient covariances although no individual node need be observable. When the collectively invisible subspace is trivial and the statistical-linearization discrepancies satisfy an explicit coherence bound, the information weighted fused mean yields exponentially bounded mean-square errors without a contraction-mixing condition. This contrasts with the arithmetic diffusiojn mean, which requires one. A distributed H_{infty} variant uses a fixed attenuation penalty. A finite-prefix feasibility check and the one-hop detectability Gramian yield a uniform regularized-information margin - an explicit local-contraction-mixing condition then yields mean-square error boundedness. The developed methods are tested on a stochastic nonlinear benchmark and a three-inertia network in which every node misses at least one mode. Information diffusion is more accurate than five-round covariance-averaging consensus at one fifth of its communication. It remains stable under 3:2 multi-rate sampling, where the covariance-averaging consensus and the diffusion mean both diverge, and it keeps the quotient covariances bounded.

Transformers have emerged as the prevailing standard solution for various AI tasks, including computer vision and natural language processing. The widely adopted Query, Key, and Value formulation (QKV) has played a significant role in this. Nevertheless, no research has examined the essentiality of these three components for transformer performance. Therefore, we conducted an evaluation of the key-value formulation (KV), which generates symmetric attention maps, along with an asymmetric version that incorporates a 2D positional encoding into the attention matrix. Remarkably, this transformer requires fewer parameters and computation than the original one. Through experiments encompassing three task types -- synthetics (such as reversing or sorting a list), vision (mnist or cifar classification), and NLP (character generation and translation) -- we discovered that the KV transformer occasionally outperforms the QKV transformer. However, it also exhibits instances of underperformance compared to QKV, making it challenging to draw a definitive conclusion. Nonetheless, we consider the reported results to be encouraging and anticipate that they may pave the way for more efficient transformers in the future.

LLMs are widely adopted in production, pushing inference systems to their limits. Disaggregated LLM serving (e.g., PD separation and KV state disaggregation) improves scalability and cost efficiency, but it also turns KV into an explicit payload crossing network and storage boundaries, making KV a dominant end-to-end bottleneck. Existing KV compression are typically static runtime configurations, despite production service context varies over time in workload mix, bandwidth, and SLO/quality budgets. As a result, a fixed choice can be suboptimal or even increase latency. We present KVServe, the first service-aware and adaptive KV communication compression framework for disaggregated LLM serving: KVServe (1) unifies KV compression into a modular strategy space with new components and cross-method recomposition; (2) introduces Bayesian Profiling Engine that efficiently searches this space and distills a 3D Pareto candidate set, reducing 50times offline search overhead; and (3) deploys a Service-Aware Online Controller that combines an analytical latency model with a lightweight bandit to select profiles under constraints and correct offline-to-online mismatch. Integrated into vLLM and evaluated across datasets, models, GPUs and networks, KVServe achieves up to 9.13times JCT speedup in PD-separated serving and up to 32.8times TTFT reduction in KV-disaggregated serving.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Linear structural equation models are multivariate statistical models encoded by mixed graphs. In particular, the set of covariance matrices for distributions belonging to a linear structural equation model for a fixed mixed graph G=(V, D,B) is parameterized by a rational function with parameters for each vertex and edge in G. This rational parametrization naturally allows for the study of these models from an algebraic and combinatorial point of view. Indeed, this point of view has led to a collection of results in the literature, mainly focusing on questions related to identifiability and determining relationships between covariances (i.e., finding polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal). So far, a large proportion of these results has focused on the case when D, the directed part of the mixed graph G, is acyclic. This is due to the fact that in the acyclic case, the parametrization becomes polynomial and there is a description of the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of a finite sum. We move beyond the acyclic case and give a closed form expression for the entries of the covariance matrices in terms of the one-connections in a graph obtained from D through some small operations. This closed form expression then allows us to show that if G is simple, then the parametrization map is generically finite-to-one. Finally, having a closed form expression for the covariance matrices allows for the development of an algorithm for systematically exploring possible polynomials in the Gaussian vanishing ideal.

Long-context LLM inference is bottlenecked by the quadratic attention complexity and linear KV cache growth. Prior approaches mitigate this via post-hoc selection or eviction but overlook the root inefficiency: indiscriminate writing to memory. In this paper, we formalize KV cache management as a causal system of three primitives: KV Admission, Selection, and Eviction. We instantiate KV Admission via Write-Gated KV (WG-KV), a lightweight mechanism that learns to predict token utility before cache entry. By filtering out low-utility states early to maintain a compact global cache alongside a sliding local cache, WG-KV reduces memory usage by 46-68% and delivers 3.03-3.70x prefill and 1.85-2.56x decode speedups on Llama and Qwen models, while maintaining compatibility with FlashAttention and Paged-KV systems. These results demonstrate that learning what to write is a principled and practical recipe for efficient long-context inference. Code is available at https://github.com/EMCLab-Sinica/WG-KV.

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and choroidal neovascularization (CNV)-related conditions are leading causes of vision loss worldwide, with optical coherence tomography (OCT) serving as a cornerstone for early detection and management. However, deploying state-of-the-art deep learning models like ConvNeXtV2-Large in clinical settings is hindered by their computational demands. Therefore, it is desirable to develop efficient models that maintain high diagnostic performance while enabling real-time deployment. In this study, a novel knowledge distillation framework, termed KD-OCT, is proposed to compress a high-performance ConvNeXtV2-Large teacher model, enhanced with advanced augmentations, stochastic weight averaging, and focal loss, into a lightweight EfficientNet-B2 student for classifying normal, drusen, and CNV cases. KD-OCT employs real-time distillation with a combined loss balancing soft teacher knowledge transfer and hard ground-truth supervision. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated on the Noor Eye Hospital (NEH) dataset using patient-level cross-validation. Experimental results demonstrate that KD-OCT outperforms comparable multi-scale or feature-fusion OCT classifiers in efficiency- accuracy balance, achieving near-teacher performance with substantial reductions in model size and inference time. Despite the compression, the student model exceeds most existing frameworks, facilitating edge deployment for AMD screening. Code is available at https://github.com/erfan-nourbakhsh/KD- OCT.

Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.

The KMOC formalism provides a systematic framework for extracting classical observables perturbatively from on-shell scattering amplitudes. In this work, we apply this formalism to compute electromagnetic observables in four dimensions, focusing in particular on the linear memory effect and its tail contributions. Using the leading and subleading soft-photon theorems to construct the soft radiation kernel, we demonstrate how these infrared observables emerge directly from amplitude data. We further show that demanding the expected non-perturbative properties of memory and tail effects imposes a nontrivial set of consistency conditions on the underlying S-matrix. We interpret these constraints as imposing the requirement of macroscopic causality on the S-matrix via analysis of inclusive observables.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

Efficient KV cache management in LLMs is crucial for long-context tasks like RAG and summarization. Existing KV cache compression methods enforce a fixed pattern, neglecting task-specific characteristics and reducing the retention of essential information. However, we observe distinct activation patterns across layers in various tasks, highlighting the need for adaptive strategies tailored to each task's unique demands. Based on this insight, we propose DynamicKV, a method that dynamically optimizes token retention by adjusting the number of tokens retained at each layer to adapt to the specific task. DynamicKV establishes global and per-layer maximum KV cache budgets, temporarily retaining the maximum budget for the current layer, and periodically updating the KV cache sizes of all preceding layers during inference. Our method retains only 1.7% of the KV cache size while achieving ~85% of the Full KV cache performance on LongBench. Notably, even under extreme compression (0.9%), DynamicKV surpasses state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods by 11% in the Needle-in-a-Haystack test using Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.2. The code will be released.

Industrial recommenders increasingly adopt the pretrain-then-transfer paradigm, yet behavioral distribution drift raises two questions: what to learn from behavior sequences, and how to transfer the learned knowledge while the pretrained model is continually refreshed. To resolve them, we propose Knowledge-Geometry Decoupling (KGD). For what to learn, conventional next-token prediction treats adjacency as dependency and may encode spurious transitions across unrelated sessions. We introduce Behavioral Multi-Token Prediction (BMTP) to retain only collaboratively or semantically related future items as supervision, yielding cleaner and more transferable behavioral knowledge. For how to transfer, pretrained knowledge and task-specific geometry impose conflicting optimization demands on shared parameters. To handle it, KGD assigns them to separate parameter sets: a refreshable encoder owns behavioral knowledge, while a task learner reads contextualized encoder states through read-only cross-attention and writes task-specific geometry through Anchored Calibration Residual (ACR) orthogonal to the pretrained embedding. The decoupled ownership enables continual knowledge refresh without task-gradient interference or invalidating downstream adaptation. KGD improves over strong pretrain-transfer baselines by 4-12% on eight public benchmarks and sustains its advantage over a 90-day production stream where baselines show no gains. KGD has been fully deployed in Shopee. In a live A/B test on Shopee Homepage Search, it increases GMV per user by 1.75% and advertising revenue by 1.53%, demonstrating its high practical value. We provide the core implementation of KGD at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/KGD4REC.

We propose the MAC-VO, a novel learning-based stereo VO that leverages the learned metrics-aware matching uncertainty for dual purposes: selecting keypoint and weighing the residual in pose graph optimization. Compared to traditional geometric methods prioritizing texture-affluent features like edges, our keypoint selector employs the learned uncertainty to filter out the low-quality features based on global inconsistency. In contrast to the learning-based algorithms that model the scale-agnostic diagonal weight matrix for covariance, we design a metrics-aware covariance model to capture the spatial error during keypoint registration and the correlations between different axes. Integrating this covariance model into pose graph optimization enhances the robustness and reliability of pose estimation, particularly in challenging environments with varying illumination, feature density, and motion patterns. On public benchmark datasets, MAC-VO outperforms existing VO algorithms and even some SLAM algorithms in challenging environments. The covariance map also provides valuable information about the reliability of the estimated poses, which can benefit decision-making for autonomous systems.

In deep learning theory, the covariance matrix of the representations serves as a proxy to examine the network's trainability. Motivated by the success of Transformers, we study the covariance matrix of a modified Softmax-based attention model with skip connections in the proportional limit of infinite-depth-and-width. We show that at initialization the limiting distribution can be described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) indexed by the depth-to-width ratio. To achieve a well-defined stochastic limit, the Transformer's attention mechanism is modified by centering the Softmax output at identity, and scaling the Softmax logits by a width-dependent temperature parameter. We examine the stability of the network through the corresponding SDE, showing how the scale of both the drift and diffusion can be elegantly controlled with the aid of residual connections. The existence of a stable SDE implies that the covariance structure is well-behaved, even for very large depth and width, thus preventing the notorious issues of rank degeneracy in deep attention models. Finally, we show, through simulations, that the SDE provides a surprisingly good description of the corresponding finite-size model. We coin the name shaped Transformer for these architectural modifications.

Models of many engineering and natural systems are imperfect. The discrepancy between the mathematical representations of a true physical system and its imperfect model is called the model error. These model errors can lead to substantial differences between the numerical solutions of the model and the state of the system, particularly in those involving nonlinear, multi-scale phenomena. Thus, there is increasing interest in reducing model errors, particularly by leveraging the rapidly growing observational data to understand their physics and sources. Here, we introduce a framework named MEDIDA: Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation. MEDIDA only requires a working numerical solver of the model and a small number of noise-free or noisy sporadic observations of the system. In MEDIDA, first the model error is estimated from differences between the observed states and model-predicted states (the latter are obtained from a number of one-time-step numerical integrations from the previous observed states). If observations are noisy, a data assimilation (DA) technique such as ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is employed to provide the analysis state of the system, which is then used to estimate the model error. Finally, an equation-discovery technique, here the relevance vector machine (RVM), a sparsity-promoting Bayesian method, is used to identify an interpretable, parsimonious, and closed-form representation of the model error. Using the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS) system as the test case, we demonstrate the excellent performance of MEDIDA in discovering different types of structural/parametric model errors, representing different types of missing physics, using noise-free and noisy observations.

Under modern test-time compute and agentic paradigms, language models process ever-longer sequences. Efficient text generation with transformer architectures is increasingly constrained by the Key-Value cache memory footprint and bandwidth. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Pruned Key-Value Attention (SP-KV), a mechanism designed to predict future KV utility in order to reduce the size of the long-term KV cache. This strategy operates at a fine granularity: a lightweight utility predictor scores each key-value pair, and while recent KVs are always available via a local window, older pairs are written in the cache and used in global attention only if their predicted utility surpasses a given threshold. The LLM and the utility predictor are trained jointly end-to-end exclusively through next-token prediction loss, and are adapted from pretrained LLM checkpoints. Rather than enforcing a fixed compression ratio, SP-KV performs dynamic sparsification: the mechanism adapts to the input and typically reduces the KV cache size by a factor of 3 to 10times, longer sequences often being more compressible. This leads to vast improvements in memory usage and decoding speed, with little to no degradation of validation loss nor performance on a broad set of downstream tasks. Beyond serving as an effective KV-cache reduction mechanism, our method reveals structured layer- and head-specific sparsity patterns that we can use to guide the design of hybrid local-global attention architectures.

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have showcased exceptional performance in long-context tasks, while facing significant inference efficiency challenges with limited GPU memory. Existing solutions first proposed the sliding-window approach to accumulate a set of historical key-value (KV) pairs for reuse, then further improvements selectively retain its subsets at each step. However, due to the sparse attention distribution across a long context, it is hard to identify and recall relevant KV pairs, as the attention is distracted by massive candidate pairs. Additionally, we found it promising to select representative tokens as probe-Query in each sliding window to effectively represent the entire context, which is an approach overlooked by existing methods. Thus, we propose ActQKV, a training-free, Activation-aware approach that dynamically determines probe-Query and leverages it to retrieve the relevant KV pairs for inference. Specifically, ActQKV monitors a token-level indicator, Activation Bias, within each context window, enabling the proper construction of probe-Query for retrieval at pre-filling stage. To accurately recall the relevant KV pairs and minimize the irrelevant ones, we design a dynamic KV cut-off mechanism guided by information density across layers at the decoding stage. Experiments on the Long-Bench and infty Benchmarks demonstrate its state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference quality and resource efficiency.

Long-context LLM decoding reads the key-value (KV) cache at every step. Loading it takes longer than computing attention over it, so throughput is bandwidth-bound. Hence, reducing the cache size can raise both decoding speed and serving capacity. The challenge is to reduce cache size while preserving the attention products, keeping reconstruction cheap, and using a fixed per-token bit count. At two bits per element, the most competitive methods rely on orthogonal transforms. However, existing techniques are either data-oblivious or use the query statistics without deriving the transform from a distortion criterion. Moreover, they rely on transforms built on top of random or Hadamard rotations, which equalize variances across entries rather than compacting energy, and fixed-width scalar quantizers, which are suboptimal at low rates. In this paper, we formulate KV cache quantization as a transform coding problem in which distortion is the error in the attention products. We derive closed-form optimal transforms for keys and values from calibration statistics, under a high-resolution model. We show that the optimal key transform is not orthogonal and satisfies a generalized Parseval relation: the attention-aware distortion becomes mean-squared error (MSE) in the transform domain. Thus, we can use MSE-optimal vector quantizers applied directly to the transformed key coefficients. To meet the fixed-width layout requirement, we show that grouping coefficients into equal-volume partitions makes equal-size codebooks attain the variable-rate optimum under the same high-resolution model. At two bits per element, our method, termed NOVA-KV, recovers most of the long-context retrieval accuracy lost by scalar quantization methods at comparable throughput.

Long-horizon LLM inference turns the key--value (KV) cache into the dominant GPU memory consumer and makes per-token attention increasingly expensive. Many common eviction policies use static recency windows or historical attention, leaving unused a signal computed on every decoding step: the model's current uncertainty. We introduce CONF-KV, a KV-cache manager that converts the next-token distribution into a scalar confidence score and uses it to choose the per-step cache budget, retaining more context when the model is uncertain and pruning aggressively when it is confident. Within each budget, tokens are ranked by a composite of accumulated attention mass and recency, while a protected recent window preserves local coherence. We combine the policy with blockwise online-softmax attention, mixed FP16/INT8 storage, and a pyramidal per-layer budget variant. Across four model families and generated lengths up to 4K, CONF-KV stays near the footprint of a fixed 512-token sliding window while remaining within 1.5--2.1 perplexity points of full KV. On Needle-in-a-Haystack up to 32K tokens, CONF-KV reaches 91.4% retrieval accuracy versus 53.8% for sliding windows and 80.6% for H2O; on 75 VisualWebArena tasks it retains 95.3% of full-KV success at 2.8 times lower peak memory.

Models of neural responses to stimuli with complex spatiotemporal correlation structure often assume that neurons are only selective for a small number of linear projections of a potentially high-dimensional input. Here we explore recent modeling approaches where the neural response depends on the quadratic form of the input rather than on its linear projection, that is, the neuron is sensitive to the local covariance structure of the signal preceding the spike. To infer this quadratic dependence in the presence of arbitrary (e.g. naturalistic) stimulus distribution, we review several inference methods, focussing in particular on two information-theory-based approaches (maximization of stimulus energy or of noise entropy) and a likelihood-based approach (Bayesian spike-triggered covariance, extensions of generalized linear models). We analyze the formal connection between the likelihood-based and information-based approaches to show how they lead to consistent inference. We demonstrate the practical feasibility of these procedures by using model neurons responding to a flickering variance stimulus.

Key-Value (KV) caching is a common technique to enhance the computational efficiency of Large Language Models (LLMs), but its memory overhead grows rapidly with input length. Prior work has shown that not all tokens are equally important for text generation, proposing layer-level KV cache compression to selectively retain key information. Recognizing the distinct roles of attention heads in generation, we propose HeadKV, a head-level KV cache compression method, and HeadKV-R2, which leverages a novel contextual reasoning ability estimation for compression. Our approach operates at the level of individual heads, estimating their importance for contextual QA tasks that require both retrieval and reasoning capabilities. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks (LongBench, LooGLE), model architectures (e.g., Llama-3-8B-Instruct, Mistral-7B-Instruct), and long-context abilities tests demonstrate that our head-level KV cache compression significantly outperforms strong baselines, particularly in low-resource settings (KV size = 64 & 128). Notably, our method retains just 1.5% of the KV cache while achieving 97% of the performance of the full KV cache on the contextual question answering benchmark.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have emerged as a powerful approach for multi-modal content creation, offering high efficiency and quality across diverse multimedia applications. However, they face significant memory bottlenecks due to extensive KV cache accumulation during inference. Existing KV cache compression techniques for large language models are suboptimal for VAR models due to, as we identify in this paper, two distinct categories of attention heads in VAR models: Structural Heads, which preserve spatial coherence through diagonal attention patterns, and Contextual Heads, which maintain semantic consistency through vertical attention patterns. These differences render single-strategy KV compression techniques ineffective for VAR models. To address this, we propose HACK, a training-free Head-Aware Compression method for KV cache. HACK allocates asymmetric cache budgets and employs pattern-specific compression strategies tailored to the essential characteristics of each head category. Experiments on Infinity-2B, Infinity-8B, and VAR-d30 demonstrate its effectiveness in text-to-image and class-conditional generation tasks. HACK can hack down up to 50\% and 70\% of cache with minimal performance degradation for VAR-d30 and Infinity-8B, respectively. Even with 70\% and 90\% KV cache compression in VAR-d30 and Infinity-8B, HACK still maintains high-quality generation while reducing memory usage by 44.2\% and 58.9\%, respectively.

Key-Value (KV) cache facilitates efficient large language models (LLMs) inference by avoiding recomputation of past KVs. As the batch size and context length increase, the oversized KV caches become a significant memory bottleneck, highlighting the need for efficient compression. Existing KV quantization rely on fine-grained quantization or the retention of a significant portion of high bit-widths caches, both of which compromise compression ratio and often fail to maintain robustness at extremely low average bit-widths. In this work, we explore the potential of rotation technique for 2-bit KV quantization and propose RotateKV, which achieves accurate and robust performance through the following innovations: (i) Outlier-Aware Rotation, which utilizes channel-reordering to adapt the rotations to varying channel-wise outlier distributions without sacrificing the computational efficiency of the fast Walsh-Hadamard transform (FWHT); (ii) Pre-RoPE Grouped-Head Rotation, which mitigates the impact of rotary position embedding (RoPE) on proposed outlier-aware rotation and further smooths outliers across heads; (iii) Attention-Sink-Aware Quantization, which leverages the massive activations to precisely identify and protect attention sinks. RotateKV achieves less than 0.3 perplexity (PPL) degradation with 2-bit quantization on WikiText-2 using LLaMA-2-13B, maintains strong CoT reasoning and long-context capabilities, with less than 1.7\% degradation on GSM8K, outperforming existing methods even at lower average bit-widths. RotateKV also showcases a 3.97x reduction in peak memory usage, supports 5.75x larger batch sizes, and achieves a 2.32x speedup in decoding stage.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely adopted to process long-context tasks. However, the large memory overhead of the key-value (KV) cache poses significant challenges in long-context scenarios. Existing training-free KV cache compression methods typically focus on quantization and token pruning, which have compression limits, and excessive sparsity can lead to severe performance degradation. Other methods design new architectures with less KV overhead but require significant training overhead. To address the above two drawbacks, we further explore the redundancy in the channel dimension and apply an architecture-level design with minor training costs. Therefore, we introduce CSKV, a training-efficient Channel Shrinking technique for KV cache compression: (1) We first analyze the singular value distribution of the KV cache, revealing significant redundancy and compression potential along the channel dimension. Based on this observation, we propose using low-rank decomposition for key and value layers and storing the low-dimension features. (2) To preserve model performance, we introduce a bi-branch KV cache, including a window-based full-precision KV cache and a low-precision compressed KV cache. (3) To reduce the training costs, we minimize the layer-wise reconstruction loss for the compressed KV cache instead of retraining the entire LLMs. Extensive experiments show that CSKV can reduce the memory overhead of the KV cache by 80% while maintaining the model's long-context capability. Moreover, we show that our method can be seamlessly combined with quantization to further reduce the memory overhead, achieving a compression ratio of up to 95%.

This article focuses on estimating relative transfer functions (RTFs) for beamforming applications. Traditional methods often assume that spectra are uncorrelated, an assumption that is often violated in practical scenarios due to factors such as time-domain windowing or the non-stationary nature of signals, as observed in speech. To overcome these limitations, we propose an RTF estimation technique that leverages spectral and spatial correlations through subspace analysis. Additionally, we derive Cram\'er--Rao bounds (CRBs) for the RTF estimation task, providing theoretical insights into the achievable estimation accuracy. These bounds reveal that channel estimation can be performed more accurately if the noise or the target signal exhibits spectral correlations. Experiments with both real and synthetic data show that our technique outperforms the narrowband maximum-likelihood estimator, known as covariance whitening (CW), when the target exhibits spectral correlations. Although the proposed algorithm generally achieves accuracy close to the theoretical bound, there is potential for further improvement, especially in scenarios with highly spectrally correlated noise. While channel estimation has various applications, we demonstrate the method using a minimum variance distortionless (MVDR) beamformer for multichannel speech enhancement. A free Python implementation is also provided.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

We present Kernel Point Convolution (KPConv), a new design of point convolution, i.e. that operates on point clouds without any intermediate representation. The convolution weights of KPConv are located in Euclidean space by kernel points, and applied to the input points close to them. Its capacity to use any number of kernel points gives KPConv more flexibility than fixed grid convolutions. Furthermore, these locations are continuous in space and can be learned by the network. Therefore, KPConv can be extended to deformable convolutions that learn to adapt kernel points to local geometry. Thanks to a regular subsampling strategy, KPConv is also efficient and robust to varying densities. Whether they use deformable KPConv for complex tasks, or rigid KPconv for simpler tasks, our networks outperform state-of-the-art classification and segmentation approaches on several datasets. We also offer ablation studies and visualizations to provide understanding of what has been learned by KPConv and to validate the descriptive power of deformable KPConv.

The Kalman filter has been adopted in acoustic echo cancellation due to its robustness to double-talk, fast convergence, and good steady-state performance. The performance of Kalman filter is closely related to the estimation accuracy of the state noise covariance and the observation noise covariance. The estimation error may lead to unacceptable results, especially when the echo path suffers abrupt changes, the tracking performance of the Kalman filter could be degraded significantly. In this paper, we propose the neural Kalman filtering (NKF), which uses neural networks to implicitly model the covariance of the state noise and observation noise and to output the Kalman gain in real-time. Experimental results on both synthetic test sets and real-recorded test sets show that, the proposed NKF has superior convergence and re-convergence performance while ensuring low near-end speech degradation comparing with the state-of-the-art model-based methods. Moreover, the model size of the proposed NKF is merely 5.3 K and the RTF is as low as 0.09, which indicates that it can be deployed in low-resource platforms.

While Key-Value (KV) cache succeeds in reducing redundant computations in auto-regressive models, it introduces significant memory overhead, limiting its practical deployment in long-sequence scenarios. Existing KV retrieval methods mitigate this by dynamically retaining only a subset of KV entries on the GPU. However, they still suffer from notable efficiency and accuracy bottlenecks due to per-token retrieval and coarse-grained page-level KV management, especially in long-output reasoning scenarios. With the emergence of large reasoning models, efficiently handling such scenarios has become increasingly important. To address this issue, we present two key observations: (1) critical KVs exhibit strong temporal locality during decoding, and (2) these KVs exhibit distinct distribution patterns across the input prompt and generated output. Building on these observations, we propose LouisKV, an efficient KV cache retrieval framework designed for various long-sequence scenarios. Specifically, LouisKV introduces a semantic-aware retrieval strategy leveraging temporal locality to trigger retrieval only at semantic boundaries, drastically reducing computation and data transfer overhead. LouisKV also designs a decoupled, fine-grained management scheme that tailors differentiated strategies for input and output sequences to create retrieval units that better match the model's attention patterns, enabling precise identification of critical KVs. Furthermore, to boost efficiency, LouisKV incorporates several kernel-level optimizations, including custom Triton and CUDA kernels to accelerate the KV clustering and retrieval. Evaluations show that LouisKV achieves up to 4.7times speedup over state-of-the-art KV retrieval methods while maintaining near-lossless accuracy across diverse long-sequence tasks, including long-input short-output, short-input long-output, and long-input long-output scenarios.

Self-supervised learning methods prevent embedding collapse via modeling heuristics or explicit regularization of the embedding space. Among the latter, VICReg decomposes regularization into variance and covariance objectives, offering flexibility and interpretability. However, covariance captures only second-order statistics -- encouraging decorrelation but failing to enforce the full distributional shape needed for stable training. Sketching-based methods such as SIGReg address this by aligning embeddings to an isotropic Gaussian, but lack flexibility and suffer from vanishing gradients under collapse. We propose Variance-Invariance-Sketching Regularization (VISReg), which replaces covariance with a Sliced-Wasserstein-based sketching objective that enforces full distributional shape, while retaining a variance term for scale control. By decoupling scale and shape, VISReg combines VICReg's flexibility with the distributional rigor of sketching methods, providing robust gradients even under collapse. We show that VISReg scales linearly, outperforms existing regularization on low-quality datasets, and is resilient to long-tailed and low-rank regimes. Pre-trained on ImageNet-1K, VISReg achieves state-of-the-art performance on out-of-distribution datasets. Pre-trained on ImageNet-22K, it matches DINOv2's OOD performance despite the latter using 10x more data (LVD-142M). Project and code: https://haiyuwu.github.io/visreg.

Four-dimensional computed tomography (4D CT) reconstruction is crucial for capturing dynamic anatomical changes but faces inherent limitations from conventional phase-binning workflows. Current methods discretize temporal resolution into fixed phases with respiratory gating devices, introducing motion misalignment and restricting clinical practicality. In this paper, We propose X^2-Gaussian, a novel framework that enables continuous-time 4D-CT reconstruction by integrating dynamic radiative Gaussian splatting with self-supervised respiratory motion learning. Our approach models anatomical dynamics through a spatiotemporal encoder-decoder architecture that predicts time-varying Gaussian deformations, eliminating phase discretization. To remove dependency on external gating devices, we introduce a physiology-driven periodic consistency loss that learns patient-specific breathing cycles directly from projections via differentiable optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, achieving a 9.93 dB PSNR gain over traditional methods and 2.25 dB improvement against prior Gaussian splatting techniques. By unifying continuous motion modeling with hardware-free period learning, X^2-Gaussian advances high-fidelity 4D CT reconstruction for dynamic clinical imaging. Code is publicly available at: https://x2-gaussian.github.io/.

We introduce the design-model framework: a way to derive efficient recurrent sequence maps from explicit assumptions about memory. A design model writes evidence into memory by exact Bayesian filtering; a query-dependent readout produces a predictive distribution whose mean is the layer output. In our linear-Gaussian instantiation, the Bayesian Layer propagates both a mean and a covariance: the covariance tracks uncertainty over stored associations, steering writes toward uncertain directions, attenuating gains as evidence accumulates, and preserving confident memories. The same framework unifies several sub-quadratic recurrences. Linear attention, GLA, and Mamba-2/SSD are exact filters under one design model, whereas DeltaNet and related Delta-rule models arise as covariance-reset reductions under another. Restoring the covariance yields closed-form predictions for retrieval dynamics, verified empirically, and improves robustness beyond the training regime across controlled collision studies, learned associative recall, and the Zoology MQAR benchmark; distilling Bayesian Layers into a pretrained 340M Gated DeltaNet improves RULER long-context retrieval at matched compute.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATEs are non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose to perform partial identification of CATEs or, equivalently, aim at estimating of lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

In this paper, we propose a dimensionless anomaly detection method for multivariate streams. Our method is independent of the unit of measurement for the different stream channels, therefore dimensionless. We first propose the variance norm, a generalisation of Mahalanobis distance to handle infinite-dimensional feature space and singular empirical covariance matrix rigorously. We then combine the variance norm with the path signature, an infinite collection of iterated integrals that provide global features of streams, to propose SigMahaKNN, a method for anomaly detection on (multivariate) streams. We show that SigMahaKNN is invariant to stream reparametrisation, stream concatenation and has a graded discrimination power depending on the truncation level of the path signature. We implement SigMahaKNN as an open-source software, and perform extensive numerical experiments, showing significantly improved anomaly detection on streams compared to isolation forest and local outlier factors in applications ranging from language analysis, hand-writing analysis, ship movement paths analysis and univariate time-series analysis.

Learning from multi-variate time-series with heterogeneous channel configurations remains a fundamental challenge for deep neural networks (DNNs), particularly in clinical domains such as intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG), where channel setups vary widely across subjects. In this work, we introduce multi-variate parallel attention (MVPA), a novel self-attention mechanism that disentangles content, temporal, and spatial attention, enabling flexible, generalizable, and efficient modeling of time-series data with varying channel counts and configurations. We use MVPA to build MVPFormer, a generative foundation model for human electrophysiology, trained to predict the evolution of iEEG signals across diverse subjects. To support this and future effort by the community, we release the SWEC iEEG dataset, the largest publicly available iEEG dataset to date, comprising nearly 10,000 hours of recordings from heterogeneous clinical sources. MVPFormer leverages MVPA to achieve strong generalization across subjects, demonstrating expert-level performance in seizure detection and outperforming state-of-the-art Transformer baselines on our SWEC, the MAYO, and the FNUSA dataset. We further validate MVPA on standard time-series forecasting and classification tasks, where it matches or exceeds existing attention-based models. Together, our contributions establish MVPA as a general-purpose attention mechanism for heterogeneous time-series and MVPFormer as the first open-source, open-weights, and open-data iEEG foundation model with state-of-the-art clinical performance. The code is available at https://github.com/IBM/multi-variate-parallel-transformer. The SWEC iEEG dataset is available at https://mb-neuro.medical-blocks.ch/public_access/databases/ieeg/swec_ieeg.

Long-context inference is increasingly constrained by the KV cache: resident memory grows with context length, and decoding becomes limited by repeated High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) streaming rather than arithmetic. Existing methods such as eviction, windowing, quantization, and offloading reduce footprint, but often leave the critical-path bottleneck only partially addressed, especially when compressed states must still be reconstructed into dense vectors during decoding. We present Spherical KV, a long-context inference method that treats KV allocation as a rate-distortion problem grounded in attention geometry for efficient decoding. The method is built on two ideas: (i) represent directional information cheaply in the decode hot loop, and (ii) allocate retention and precision according to estimated future utility. Its first component, Angle-Domain Attention (ADA), stores keys in a spherical parameterization consisting of a scalar radius and compact angle codes, and computes attention logits directly from these codes without reconstructing dense keys. This preserves a paged, block-local, fusion-friendly decode path and directly targets HBM traffic in realistic serving settings. Its second component, Rate-Distortion Retention (RDR), jointly chooses keep/drop decisions and precision tiers per token and head under a fixed budget, producing tier-homogeneous pages with lightweight metadata and coalesced reads. Together, ADA and RDR provide a deployment-oriented mechanism for reducing KV residency while preserving decode efficiency.

The increasing use of machine learning in clinical decision support has been limited by the lack of transparency of many high-performing models. In clinical settings, predictions must be interpretable, auditable, and actionable. This study investigates Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) as intrinsically interpretable alternatives to conventional black-box models for clinical classification of tabular health data, aiming to balance predictive performance with clinically meaningful transparency. We introduce two KAN-based models: the Logistic KAN, a flexible generalization of logistic regression, and the Kolmogorov-Arnold Additive Model (KAAM), an additive variant that yields transparent symbolic representations through feature-wise decomposability. Both models are evaluated on multiple public clinical datasets and compared with standard linear, tree-based, and neural baselines. Across all datasets, the proposed models achieve predictive performance comparable to or exceeding that of commonly used baselines while remaining fully interpretable. Logistic-KAN obtains the highest overall ranking across evaluation metrics, with a mean reciprocal rank of 0.76, indicating consistently strong performance across tasks. KAAM provides competitive accuracy while offering enhanced transparency through feature-wise decomposability, patient-level visualizations, and nearest-patient retrieval, enabling direct inspection of individual predictions. KAN-based models provide a practical and trustworthy alternative to black-box models for clinical classification, offering a strong balance between predictive performance and interpretability for clinical decision support. By enabling transparent, patient-level reasoning and clinically actionable insights, the proposed models represent a promising step toward trustworthy AI in healthcare (code: https://github.com/Patricia-A-Apellaniz/classification_with_kans).

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown significant impact through their model capacity, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. However, due to the heterogeneity of inter-variate dependencies and the backbone scalability on large-scale multivariate datasets, most TSFMs are typically pre-trained on univariate time series. This limitation renders them oblivious to crucial information from diverse covariates in real-world forecasting tasks. To further enhance the performance of TSFMs, we propose a general covariate-aware adaptation (CoRA) framework for TSFMs. It leverages pre-trained backbones of foundation models while effectively incorporating exogenous covariates from various modalities, including time series, language, and images, to improve the quality of predictions. Technically, CoRA maintains the equivalence of initialization and parameter consistency during adaptation. With preserved backbones of foundation models as frozen feature extractors, the outcome embeddings from foundation models are empirically demonstrated more informative than raw data. Further, CoRA employs a novel Granger Causality Embedding (GCE) to automatically evaluate covariates regarding their causal predictability with respect to the target variate. We incorporate these weighted embeddings with a zero-initialized condition-injection mechanism, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained foundation models and gradually integrates exogenous information. Extensive experiments show that CoRA of TSFMs surpasses state-of-the-art covariate-aware deep forecasters with full or few-shot training samples, achieving 31.1% MSE reduction on covariate-aware forecasting. Compared to other adaptation methods, CoRA exhibits strong compatibility with various advanced TSFMs and extends the scope of covariates to other modalities, presenting a practical paradigm for the application of TSFMs.

Intelligent tutoring systems optimize the selection and timing of learning materials to enhance understanding and long-term retention. This requires estimates of both the learner's progress (''knowledge tracing''; KT), and the prerequisite structure of the learning domain (''knowledge mapping''). While recent deep learning models achieve high KT accuracy, they do so at the expense of the interpretability of psychologically-inspired models. In this work, we present a solution to this trade-off. PSI-KT is a hierarchical generative approach that explicitly models how both individual cognitive traits and the prerequisite structure of knowledge influence learning dynamics, thus achieving interpretability by design. Moreover, by using scalable Bayesian inference, PSI-KT targets the real-world need for efficient personalization even with a growing body of learners and learning histories. Evaluated on three datasets from online learning platforms, PSI-KT achieves superior multi-step predictive accuracy and scalable inference in continual-learning settings, all while providing interpretable representations of learner-specific traits and the prerequisite structure of knowledge that causally supports learning. In sum, predictive, scalable and interpretable knowledge tracing with solid knowledge mapping lays a key foundation for effective personalized learning to make education accessible to a broad, global audience.

This paper presents a novel Kinematics and Trajectory Prior Knowledge-Enhanced Transformer (KTPFormer), which overcomes the weakness in existing transformer-based methods for 3D human pose estimation that the derivation of Q, K, V vectors in their self-attention mechanisms are all based on simple linear mapping. We propose two prior attention modules, namely Kinematics Prior Attention (KPA) and Trajectory Prior Attention (TPA) to take advantage of the known anatomical structure of the human body and motion trajectory information, to facilitate effective learning of global dependencies and features in the multi-head self-attention. KPA models kinematic relationships in the human body by constructing a topology of kinematics, while TPA builds a trajectory topology to learn the information of joint motion trajectory across frames. Yielding Q, K, V vectors with prior knowledge, the two modules enable KTPFormer to model both spatial and temporal correlations simultaneously. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks (Human3.6M, MPI-INF-3DHP and HumanEva) show that KTPFormer achieves superior performance in comparison to state-of-the-art methods. More importantly, our KPA and TPA modules have lightweight plug-and-play designs and can be integrated into various transformer-based networks (i.e., diffusion-based) to improve the performance with only a very small increase in the computational overhead. The code is available at: https://github.com/JihuaPeng/KTPFormer.