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Dec 25

Lean Copilot: Large Language Models as Copilots for Theorem Proving in Lean

Neural theorem proving combines large language models (LLMs) with proof assistants such as Lean, where the correctness of formal proofs can be rigorously verified, leaving no room for hallucination. With existing neural theorem provers pretrained on a fixed collection of data and offering valuable suggestions at times, it is challenging for them to continually prove novel theorems in a fully autonomous mode, where human insights may be critical. In this paper, we explore LLMs as copilots that assist humans in proving theorems. We introduce Lean Copilot, a general framework for running LLM inference natively in Lean. It enables programmers to build various LLM-based proof automation tools that integrate seamlessly into the workflow of Lean users. Lean users can use our pretrained models or bring their own ones that run either locally (with or without GPUs) or on the cloud. Using Lean Copilot, we build LLM-based tools that suggest proof steps, complete proof goals, and select relevant premises. Experimental results on the Mathematics in Lean textbook demonstrate the effectiveness of our method compared to existing rule-based proof automation in Lean (aesop). When assisting humans, Lean Copilot requires only 2.08 manually-entered proof steps on average (3.86 required by aesop); when automating the theorem proving process, Lean Copilot automates 74.2% proof steps on average, 85% better than aesop (40.1%). We open source all code and artifacts under a permissive MIT license to facilitate further research.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 18, 2024

Copilot Refinement: Addressing Code Smells in Copilot-Generated Python Code

As one of the most popular dynamic languages, Python experiences a decrease in readability and maintainability when code smells are present. Recent advancements in Large Language Models have sparked growing interest in AI-enabled tools for both code generation and refactoring. GitHub Copilot is one such tool that has gained widespread usage. Copilot Chat, released on September 2023, functions as an interactive tool aims at facilitating natural language-powered coding. However, limited attention has been given to understanding code smells in Copilot-generated Python code and Copilot's ability to fix the code smells it generates. To this end, we built a dataset comprising 102 code smells in Copilot-generated Python code. Our aim is to first explore the occurrence of code smells in Copilot-generated Python code and then evaluate the effectiveness of Copilot in fixing these code smells employing different prompts. The results show that 8 out of 10 types of Python smells can be detected in Copilot-generated Python code, among which Multiply-Nested Container is the most common one. For these code smells, Copilot Chat achieves a highest fixing rate of 87.1%, showing promise in fixing Python code smells generated by Copilot itself. Besides, the effectiveness of Copilot Chat in fixing these smells can be improved with the provision of more detailed prompts. However, using Copilot Chat to fix these smells might introduce new code smells.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 25, 2024

T2I-Copilot: A Training-Free Multi-Agent Text-to-Image System for Enhanced Prompt Interpretation and Interactive Generation

Text-to-Image (T2I) generative models have revolutionized content creation but remain highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, often requiring users to repeatedly refine prompts multiple times without clear feedback. While techniques such as automatic prompt engineering, controlled text embeddings, denoising, and multi-turn generation mitigate these issues, they offer limited controllability, or often necessitate additional training, restricting the generalization abilities. Thus, we introduce T2I-Copilot, a training-free multi-agent system that leverages collaboration between (Multimodal) Large Language Models to automate prompt phrasing, model selection, and iterative refinement. This approach significantly simplifies prompt engineering while enhancing generation quality and text-image alignment compared to direct generation. Specifically, T2I-Copilot consists of three agents: (1) Input Interpreter, which parses the input prompt, resolves ambiguities, and generates a standardized report; (2) Generation Engine, which selects the appropriate model from different types of T2I models and organizes visual and textual prompts to initiate generation; and (3) Quality Evaluator, which assesses aesthetic quality and text-image alignment, providing scores and feedback for potential regeneration. T2I-Copilot can operate fully autonomously while also supporting human-in-the-loop intervention for fine-grained control. On GenAI-Bench, using open-source generation models, T2I-Copilot achieves a VQA score comparable to commercial models RecraftV3 and Imagen 3, surpasses FLUX1.1-pro by 6.17% at only 16.59% of its cost, and outperforms FLUX.1-dev and SD 3.5 Large by 9.11% and 6.36%. Code will be released at: https://github.com/SHI-Labs/T2I-Copilot.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 28

Transformer Copilot: Learning from The Mistake Log in LLM Fine-tuning

Large language models are typically adapted to downstream tasks through supervised fine-tuning on domain-specific data. While standard fine-tuning focuses on minimizing generation loss to optimize model parameters, we take a deeper step by retaining and leveraging the model's own learning signals, analogous to how human learners reflect on past mistakes to improve future performance. We first introduce the concept of Mistake Log to systematically track the model's learning behavior and recurring errors throughout fine-tuning. Treating the original transformer-based model as the Pilot, we correspondingly design a Copilot model to refine the Pilot's inference performance via logits rectification. We name the overall Pilot-Copilot framework the Transformer Copilot, which introduces (i) a novel Copilot model design, (ii) a joint training paradigm where the Copilot continuously learns from the evolving Mistake Log alongside the Pilot, and (iii) a fused inference paradigm where the Copilot rectifies the Pilot's logits for enhanced generation. We provide both theoretical and empirical analyses on our new learning framework. Experiments on 12 benchmarks spanning commonsense, arithmetic, and recommendation tasks demonstrate that Transformer Copilot consistently improves performance by up to 34.5%, while introducing marginal computational overhead to Pilot models and exhibiting strong scalability and transferability.

  • 7 authors
·
May 22 2

Data-Copilot: Bridging Billions of Data and Humans with Autonomous Workflow

Various industries such as finance, meteorology, and energy generate vast amounts of heterogeneous data every day. There is a natural demand for humans to manage, process, and display data efficiently. However, it necessitates labor-intensive efforts and a high level of expertise for these data-related tasks. Considering that large language models (LLMs) have showcased promising capabilities in semantic understanding and reasoning, we advocate that the deployment of LLMs could autonomously manage and process massive amounts of data while displaying and interacting in a human-friendly manner. Based on this belief, we propose Data-Copilot, an LLM-based system that connects numerous data sources on one end and caters to diverse human demands on the other end. Acting like an experienced expert, Data-Copilot autonomously transforms raw data into visualization results that best match the user's intent. Specifically, Data-Copilot autonomously designs versatile interfaces (tools) for data management, processing, prediction, and visualization. In real-time response, it automatically deploys a concise workflow by invoking corresponding interfaces step by step for the user's request. The interface design and deployment processes are fully controlled by Data-Copilot itself, without human assistance. Besides, we create a Data-Copilot demo that links abundant data from different domains (stock, fund, company, economics, and live news) and accurately respond to diverse requests, serving as a reliable AI assistant.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 12, 2023

From Copilot to Pilot: Towards AI Supported Software Development

AI-supported programming has arrived, as shown by the introduction and successes of large language models for code, such as Copilot/Codex (Github/OpenAI) and AlphaCode (DeepMind). Above human average performance on programming challenges is now possible. However, software engineering is much more than solving programming contests. Moving beyond code completion to AI-supported software engineering will require an AI system that can, among other things, understand how to avoid code smells, to follow language idioms, and eventually (maybe!) propose rational software designs. In this study, we explore the current limitations of AI-supported code completion tools like Copilot and offer a simple taxonomy for understanding the classification of AI-supported code completion tools in this space. We first perform an exploratory study on Copilot's code suggestions for language idioms and code smells. Copilot does not follow language idioms and avoid code smells in most of our test scenarios. We then conduct additional investigation to determine the current boundaries of AI-supported code completion tools like Copilot by introducing a taxonomy of software abstraction hierarchies where 'basic programming functionality' such as code compilation and syntax checking is at the least abstract level, software architecture analysis and design are at the most abstract level. We conclude by providing a discussion on challenges for future development of AI-supported code completion tools to reach the design level of abstraction in our taxonomy.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 7, 2023

Where Are Large Language Models for Code Generation on GitHub?

The increasing use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in software development has garnered significant attention from researchers assessing the quality of the code they generate. However, much of the research focuses on controlled datasets such as HumanEval, which fail to adequately represent how developers actually utilize LLMs' code generation capabilities or clarify the characteristics of LLM-generated code in real-world development scenarios. To bridge this gap, our study investigates the characteristics of LLM-generated code and its corresponding projects hosted on GitHub. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) ChatGPT and Copilot are the most frequently utilized for generating code on GitHub. In contrast, there is very little code generated by other LLMs on GitHub. (2) Projects containing ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code are often small and less known, led by individuals or small teams. Despite this, most projects are continuously evolving and improving. (3) ChatGPT/Copilot is mainly utilized for generating Python, Java, and TypeScript scripts for data processing and transformation. C/C++ and JavaScript code generation focuses on algorithm and data structure implementation and user interface code. Most ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code snippets are relatively short and exhibit low complexity. (4) Compared to human-written code, ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code exists in a small proportion of projects and generally undergoes fewer modifications. Additionally, modifications due to bugs are even fewer, ranging from just 3% to 8% across different languages. (5) Most comments on ChatGPT/Copilot-generated code lack detailed information, often only stating the code's origin without mentioning prompts, human modifications, or testing status. Based on these findings, we discuss the implications for researchers and practitioners.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 27, 2024

Copiloting the Copilots: Fusing Large Language Models with Completion Engines for Automated Program Repair

During Automated Program Repair (APR), it can be challenging to synthesize correct patches for real-world systems in general-purpose programming languages. Recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to be helpful "copilots" in assisting developers with various coding tasks, and have also been directly applied for patch synthesis. However, most LLMs treat programs as sequences of tokens, meaning that they are ignorant of the underlying semantics constraints of the target programming language. This results in plenty of statically invalid generated patches, impeding the practicality of the technique. Therefore, we propose Repilot, a framework to further copilot the AI "copilots" (i.e., LLMs) by synthesizing more valid patches during the repair process. Our key insight is that many LLMs produce outputs autoregressively (i.e., token by token), resembling human writing programs, which can be significantly boosted and guided through a Completion Engine. Repilot synergistically synthesizes a candidate patch through the interaction between an LLM and a Completion Engine, which 1) prunes away infeasible tokens suggested by the LLM and 2) proactively completes the token based on the suggestions provided by the Completion Engine. Our evaluation on a subset of the widely-used Defects4j 1.2 and 2.0 datasets shows that Repilot fixes 66 and 50 bugs, respectively, surpassing the best-performing baseline by 14 and 16 bugs fixed. More importantly, Repilot is capable of producing more valid and correct patches than the base LLM when given the same generation budget.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 1, 2023

Causal-Copilot: An Autonomous Causal Analysis Agent

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

  • 13 authors
·
Apr 17 2

Tutor CoPilot: A Human-AI Approach for Scaling Real-Time Expertise

Generative AI, particularly Language Models (LMs), has the potential to transform real-world domains with societal impact, particularly where access to experts is limited. For example, in education, training novice educators with expert guidance is important for effectiveness but expensive, creating significant barriers to improving education quality at scale. This challenge disproportionately harms students from under-served communities, who stand to gain the most from high-quality education. We introduce Tutor CoPilot, a novel Human-AI approach that leverages a model of expert thinking to provide expert-like guidance to tutors as they tutor. This study is the first randomized controlled trial of a Human-AI system in live tutoring, involving 900 tutors and 1,800 K-12 students from historically under-served communities. Following a preregistered analysis plan, we find that students working with tutors that have access to Tutor CoPilot are 4 percentage points (p.p.) more likely to master topics (p<0.01). Notably, students of lower-rated tutors experienced the greatest benefit, improving mastery by 9 p.p. We find that Tutor CoPilot costs only $20 per-tutor annually. We analyze 550,000+ messages using classifiers to identify pedagogical strategies, and find that tutors with access to Tutor CoPilot are more likely to use high-quality strategies to foster student understanding (e.g., asking guiding questions) and less likely to give away the answer to the student. Tutor interviews highlight how Tutor CoPilot's guidance helps tutors to respond to student needs, though they flag issues in Tutor CoPilot, such as generating suggestions that are not grade-level appropriate. Altogether, our study of Tutor CoPilot demonstrates how Human-AI systems can scale expertise in real-world domains, bridge gaps in skills and create a future where high-quality education is accessible to all students.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 3, 2024 5

Cognitive Kernel: An Open-source Agent System towards Generalist Autopilots

We introduce Cognitive Kernel, an open-source agent system towards the goal of generalist autopilots. Unlike copilot systems, which primarily rely on users to provide essential state information (e.g., task descriptions) and assist users by answering questions or auto-completing contents, autopilot systems must complete tasks from start to finish independently, which requires the system to acquire the state information from the environments actively. To achieve this, an autopilot system should be capable of understanding user intents, actively gathering necessary information from various real-world sources, and making wise decisions. Cognitive Kernel adopts a model-centric design. In our implementation, the central policy model (a fine-tuned LLM) initiates interactions with the environment using a combination of atomic actions, such as opening files, clicking buttons, saving intermediate results to memory, or calling the LLM itself. This differs from the widely used environment-centric design, where a task-specific environment with predefined actions is fixed, and the policy model is limited to selecting the correct action from a given set of options. Our design facilitates seamless information flow across various sources and provides greater flexibility. We evaluate our system in three use cases: real-time information management, private information management, and long-term memory management. The results demonstrate that Cognitive Kernel achieves better or comparable performance to other closed-source systems in these scenarios. Cognitive Kernel is fully dockerized, ensuring everyone can deploy it privately and securely. We open-source the system and the backbone model to encourage further research on LLM-driven autopilot systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Sep 16, 2024

COPILOT: Human-Environment Collision Prediction and Localization from Egocentric Videos

The ability to forecast human-environment collisions from egocentric observations is vital to enable collision avoidance in applications such as VR, AR, and wearable assistive robotics. In this work, we introduce the challenging problem of predicting collisions in diverse environments from multi-view egocentric videos captured from body-mounted cameras. Solving this problem requires a generalizable perception system that can classify which human body joints will collide and estimate a collision region heatmap to localize collisions in the environment. To achieve this, we propose a transformer-based model called COPILOT to perform collision prediction and localization simultaneously, which accumulates information across multi-view inputs through a novel 4D space-time-viewpoint attention mechanism. To train our model and enable future research on this task, we develop a synthetic data generation framework that produces egocentric videos of virtual humans moving and colliding within diverse 3D environments. This framework is then used to establish a large-scale dataset consisting of 8.6M egocentric RGBD frames. Extensive experiments show that COPILOT generalizes to unseen synthetic as well as real-world scenes. We further demonstrate COPILOT outputs are useful for downstream collision avoidance through simple closed-loop control. Please visit our project webpage at https://sites.google.com/stanford.edu/copilot.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 4, 2022

GDC Cohort Copilot: An AI Copilot for Curating Cohorts from the Genomic Data Commons

Motivation: The Genomic Data Commons (GDC) provides access to high quality, harmonized cancer genomics data through a unified curation and analysis platform centered around patient cohorts. While GDC users can interactively create complex cohorts through the graphical Cohort Builder, users (especially new ones) may struggle to find specific cohort descriptors across hundreds of possible fields and properties. However, users may be better able to describe their desired cohort in free-text natural language. Results: We introduce GDC Cohort Copilot, an open-source copilot tool for curating cohorts from the GDC. GDC Cohort Copilot automatically generates the GDC cohort filter corresponding to a user-input natural language description of their desired cohort, before exporting the cohort back to the GDC for further analysis. An interactive user interface allows users to further refine the generated cohort. We develop and evaluate multiple large language models (LLMs) for GDC Cohort Copilot and demonstrate that our locally-served, open-source GDC Cohort LLM achieves better results than GPT-4o prompting in generating GDC cohorts. Availability and implementation: The standalone docker image for GDC Cohort Copilot is available at https://quay.io/repository/cdis/gdc-cohort-copilot. Source code is available at https://github.com/uc-cdis/gdc-cohort-copilot. GDC Cohort LLM weights are available at https://huggingface.co/uc-ctds.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 2

Copilot Evaluation Harness: Evaluating LLM-Guided Software Programming

The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs) into Development Environments (IDEs) has become a focal point in modern software development. LLMs such as OpenAI GPT-3.5/4 and Code Llama offer the potential to significantly augment developer productivity by serving as intelligent, chat-driven programming assistants. However, utilizing LLMs out of the box is unlikely to be optimal for any given scenario. Rather, each system requires the LLM to be honed to its set of heuristics to ensure the best performance. In this paper, we introduce the Copilot evaluation harness: a set of data and tools for evaluating LLM-guided IDE interactions, covering various programming scenarios and languages. We propose our metrics as a more robust and information-dense evaluation than previous state of the art evaluation systems. We design and compute both static and execution based success metrics for scenarios encompassing a wide range of developer tasks, including code generation from natural language (generate), documentation generation from code (doc), test case generation (test), bug-fixing (fix), and workspace understanding and query resolution (workspace). These success metrics are designed to evaluate the performance of LLMs within a given IDE and its respective parameter space. Our learnings from evaluating three common LLMs using these metrics can inform the development and validation of future scenarios in LLM guided IDEs.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 21, 2024 1

CognitiveDrone: A VLA Model and Evaluation Benchmark for Real-Time Cognitive Task Solving and Reasoning in UAVs

This paper introduces CognitiveDrone, a novel Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model tailored for complex Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) tasks that demand advanced cognitive abilities. Trained on a dataset comprising over 8,000 simulated flight trajectories across three key categories-Human Recognition, Symbol Understanding, and Reasoning-the model generates real-time 4D action commands based on first-person visual inputs and textual instructions. To further enhance performance in intricate scenarios, we propose CognitiveDrone-R1, which integrates an additional Vision-Language Model (VLM) reasoning module to simplify task directives prior to high-frequency control. Experimental evaluations using our open-source benchmark, CognitiveDroneBench, reveal that while a racing-oriented model (RaceVLA) achieves an overall success rate of 31.3%, the base CognitiveDrone model reaches 59.6%, and CognitiveDrone-R1 attains a success rate of 77.2%. These results demonstrate improvements of up to 30% in critical cognitive tasks, underscoring the effectiveness of incorporating advanced reasoning capabilities into UAV control systems. Our contributions include the development of a state-of-the-art VLA model for UAV control and the introduction of the first dedicated benchmark for assessing cognitive tasks in drone operations. The complete repository is available at cognitivedrone.github.io

MA-LoT: Multi-Agent Lean-based Long Chain-of-Thought Reasoning enhances Formal Theorem Proving

Solving mathematical problems using computer-verifiable languages like Lean has significantly impacted mathematical and computer science communities. State-of-the-art methods utilize single Large Language Models (LLMs) as agents or provers to either generate complete proof or perform tree searches. However, single-agent methods inherently lack a structured way to combine high-level reasoning in Natural Language (NL) with Formal Language (FL) verification feedback. To solve these issues, we propose MA-LoT: Multi-Agent Lean-based Long Chain-of-Thought framework, (to the best of our knowledge), the first multi-agent framework for Lean4 theorem proving that balance high-level NL reasoning and FL verification in Long CoT. Using this structured interaction, our approach enables deeper insights and long-term coherence in proof generation, with which past methods struggle. We do this by leveraging emergent formal reasoning ability in Long CoT using our novel LoT-Transfer Learning training-inference pipeline. Extensive experiments show that our framework achieves 54.51% accuracy rate on the Lean4 version of MiniF2F-Test dataset, largely outperforming GPT-4 (22.95%), single-agent tree search (InternLM-Step-Prover, 50.70%), and whole-proof generation (DeepSeek-Prover-v1.5, 48.36%) baselines. Furthermore, our findings highlight the potential of combining Long CoT with formal verification for a more insightful generation in a broader perspective.

  • 9 authors
·
Mar 5

Evaluation of OpenAI Codex for HPC Parallel Programming Models Kernel Generation

We evaluate AI-assisted generative capabilities on fundamental numerical kernels in high-performance computing (HPC), including AXPY, GEMV, GEMM, SpMV, Jacobi Stencil, and CG. We test the generated kernel codes for a variety of language-supported programming models, including (1) C++ (e.g., OpenMP [including offload], OpenACC, Kokkos, SyCL, CUDA, and HIP), (2) Fortran (e.g., OpenMP [including offload] and OpenACC), (3) Python (e.g., numba, Numba, cuPy, and pyCUDA), and (4) Julia (e.g., Threads, CUDA.jl, AMDGPU.jl, and KernelAbstractions.jl). We use the GitHub Copilot capabilities powered by OpenAI Codex available in Visual Studio Code as of April 2023 to generate a vast amount of implementations given simple <kernel> + <programming model> + <optional hints> prompt variants. To quantify and compare the results, we propose a proficiency metric around the initial 10 suggestions given for each prompt. Results suggest that the OpenAI Codex outputs for C++ correlate with the adoption and maturity of programming models. For example, OpenMP and CUDA score really high, whereas HIP is still lacking. We found that prompts from either a targeted language such as Fortran or the more general-purpose Python can benefit from adding code keywords, while Julia prompts perform acceptably well for its mature programming models (e.g., Threads and CUDA.jl). We expect for these benchmarks to provide a point of reference for each programming model's community. Overall, understanding the convergence of large language models, AI, and HPC is crucial due to its rapidly evolving nature and how it is redefining human-computer interactions.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 26, 2023

Harnessing the Potential of Gen-AI Coding Assistants in Public Sector Software Development

The study on GitHub Copilot by GovTech Singapore's Engineering Productivity Programme (EPP) reveals significant potential for AI Code Assistant tools to boost developer productivity and improve application quality in the public sector. Highlighting the substantial benefits for the public sector, the study observed an increased productivity (coding / tasks speed increased by 21-28%), which translates into accelerated development, and quicker go-to-market, with a notable consensus (95%) that the tool increases developer satisfaction. Particularly, junior developers experienced considerable efficiency gains and reduced coding times, illustrating Copilot's capability to enhance job satisfaction by easing routine tasks. This advancement allows for a sharper focus on complex projects, faster learning, and improved code quality. Recognising the strategic importance of these tools, the study recommends the development of an AI Framework to maximise such benefits while cautioning against potential over-reliance without solid foundational programming skills. It also advises public sector developers to classify their code as "Open" to use Gen-AI Coding Assistant tools on the Cloud like GitHub Copilot and to consider self-hosted tools like Codeium or Code Llama for confidential code to leverage technology efficiently within the public sector framework. With up to 8,000 developers, comprising both public officers and vendors developing applications for the public sector and its customers, there is significant potential to enhance productivity.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 25, 2024

Applicability and Surrogacy of Uncorrelated Airspace Encounter Models at Low Altitudes

The National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex and evolving system that enables safe and efficient aviation. Advanced air mobility concepts and new airspace entrants, such as unmanned aircraft, must integrate into the NAS without degrading overall safety or efficiency. For instance, regulations, standards, and systems are required to mitigate the risk of a midair collision between aircraft. Monte Carlo simulations have been a foundational capability for decades to develop, assess, and certify aircraft conflict avoidance systems. These are often validated through human-in-the-loop experiments and flight testing. For many aviation safety studies, manned aircraft behavior is represented using dynamic Bayesian networks. The original statistical models were developed from 2008-2013 to support safety simulations for altitudes above 500 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). However, these models were not sufficient to assess the safety of smaller UAS operations below 500 feet AGL. In response, newer models with altitude floors below 500 feet AGL have been in development since 2018. Many of the models assume that aircraft behavior is uncorrelated and not dependent on air traffic services or nearby aircraft. Our research objective was to compare the various uncorrelated models of conventional aircraft and identify how the models differ. Particularly if models of rotorcraft were sufficiently different than models of fixed-wing aircraft to require type specific models. The primary contribution is guidance on which uncorrelated models to leverage when evaluating the performance of a collision avoidance system designed for low altitude operations. We also address which models can be surrogates for noncooperative aircraft without transponders.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 4, 2021