Daily Papers

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Models driven by spurious correlations often yield poor generalization performance. We propose the counterfactual (CF) alignment method to detect and quantify spurious correlations of black box classifiers. Our methodology is based on counterfactual images generated with respect to one classifier being input into other classifiers to see if they also induce changes in the outputs of these classifiers. The relationship between these responses can be quantified and used to identify specific instances where a spurious correlation exists. This is validated by observing intuitive trends in face-attribute and waterbird classifiers, as well as by fabricating spurious correlations and detecting their presence, both visually and quantitatively. Furthermore, utilizing the CF alignment method, we demonstrate that we can evaluate robust optimization methods (GroupDRO, JTT, and FLAC) by detecting a reduction in spurious correlations.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Video generation models have shown strong potential as world models for autonomous driving simulation. However, existing approaches are primarily trained on real-world driving datasets, which mostly contain natural and safe driving scenarios. As a result, current models often fail when conditioned on challenging or counterfactual trajectories-such as imperfect trajectories generated by simulators or planning systems-producing videos with severe physical inconsistencies and artifacts. To address this limitation, we propose PhyGenesis, a world model designed to generate driving videos with high visual fidelity and strong physical consistency. Our framework consists of two key components: (1) a physical condition generator that transforms potentially invalid trajectory inputs into physically plausible conditions, and (2) a physics-enhanced video generator that produces high-fidelity multi-view driving videos under these conditions. To effectively train these components, we construct a large-scale, physics-rich heterogeneous dataset. Specifically, in addition to real-world driving videos, we generate diverse challenging driving scenarios using the CARLA simulator, from which we derive supervision signals that guide the model to learn physically grounded dynamics under extreme conditions. This challenging-trajectory learning strategy enables trajectory correction and promotes physically consistent video generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PhyGenesis consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, especially on challenging trajectories. Our project page is available at: https://wm-research.github.io/PhyGenesis/.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in performing complex tasks. While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been effective in aligning LLMs with human preferences, it is susceptible to spurious correlations in reward modeling. Consequently, it often introduces biases-such as length bias, sycophancy, conceptual bias, and discrimination that hinder the model's ability to capture true causal relationships. To address this, we propose a novel causal reward modeling approach that integrates causal inference to mitigate these spurious correlations. Our method enforces counterfactual invariance, ensuring reward predictions remain consistent when irrelevant variables are altered. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our approach mitigates various types of spurious correlations effectively, resulting in more reliable and fair alignment of LLMs with human preferences. As a drop-in enhancement to the existing RLHF workflow, our causal reward modeling provides a practical way to improve the trustworthiness and fairness of LLM finetuning.

Diffusion models can generate realistic videos, but existing methods rely on implicitly learning physical reasoning from large-scale text-video datasets, which is costly, difficult to scale, and still prone to producing implausible motions that violate fundamental physical laws. We introduce a training-free framework that improves physical plausibility at inference time by explicitly reasoning about implausibility and guiding the generation away from it. Specifically, we employ a lightweight physics-aware reasoning pipeline to construct counterfactual prompts that deliberately encode physics-violating behaviors. Then, we propose a novel Synchronized Decoupled Guidance (SDG) strategy, which leverages these prompts through synchronized directional normalization to counteract lagged suppression and trajectory-decoupled denoising to mitigate cumulative trajectory bias, ensuring that implausible content is suppressed immediately and consistently throughout denoising. Experiments across different physical domains show that our approach substantially enhances physical fidelity while maintaining photorealism, despite requiring no additional training. Ablation studies confirm the complementary effectiveness of both the physics-aware reasoning component and SDG. In particular, the aforementioned two designs of SDG are also individually validated to contribute critically to the suppression of implausible content and the overall gains in physical plausibility. This establishes a new and plug-and-play physics-aware paradigm for video generation.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in multimodal reasoning. However, prevailing reinforcement learning (RL) paradigms lack explicit counterfactual enhancement and causal learning mechanisms. This fundamental deficiency results in severe grounding failures, manifesting as a tendency to ignore visual evidence in favor of language priors or exhibiting hallucination drift during long chain-of-thought reasoning. To address this root cause, we propose CounterFactual Policy Optimization (CFPO), a novel framework that enforces causal consistency between visual perception and textual reasoning. CFPO introduces a cross-modal counterfactual enhancement mechanism, which regularizes the policy by maximizing the discrepancy between the model's predictions and those from a counterfactual state where critical visual cues are suppressed. This approach seamlessly integrates with standard algorithms like GRPO and DAPO without requiring external reward models or additional supervision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CFPO significantly improves reasoning fidelity, achieving consistent gains of 3.17%-6.25% over standard RL baselines and 1.32%-2.13% over the state-of-the-art perception-aware method (PAPO). Code is available at https://github.com/Raven-July/CFPO.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model m and the new model M are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., |Params(M){-}Params(m)|{<}Delta. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed naturally-occurring model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call Stability -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of Stability as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

Counterfactual reasoning requires models to reason beyond the observed world and explain how altered conditions propagate through downstream consequences. Existing benchmarks largely target bounded settings with fixed variables or single gold outcomes, overlooking open-domain scenarios requiring causal-process evaluation. To this end, we present WhatIfBench, a diagnostic benchmark for open-domain, open-form, long-horizon counterfactual causal reasoning, containing 220 what-if questions across STEM, HSS, and Hybrid scenarios. To evaluate free-form responses, we further propose PRISM, which first converts each natural-language explanation into a Response-Derived Semantic Causal Graph of events, states, and mechanisms. On top of this graph, PRISM then jointly applies a Process Metric assessing graph-level causal validity and a Rubric Metric assessing answer-level explanatory adequacy. Evaluating six frontier LLMs with this framework, we find that WhatIfBench remains far from saturated: even the strongest model reaches only a 64.62% final score. Further analysis reveals persistent causal gaps, premise drift, and topology fragmentation, suggesting that fluent counterfactual narratives often mask fragile causal processes. The benchmark, code, and evaluation scripts are available at https://github.com/zju-gt/WhatIfBench{WhatIfBench}.

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models - a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were influenced by other variables in the system.

Vision-language systems combine images with retrieved text, but these sources can disagree or jointly fail to support an answer. Reliable models must identify the trustworthy source and abstain when neither is adequate. Existing post-training objectives score instances independently and therefore do not enforce coherent behavior under counterfactual evidence changes. We introduce CARGO-VL, a group-relative framework that optimizes matched variants covering aligned, image-correct, text-correct, and both-wrong (A/V/T/N) evidence states as one bundle. Its objective couples condition-wise correctness with transition rewards for answer invariance, source equivariance, and answer-to-abstention switching, while a primal-dual controller balances unsafe answers against excessive deferral. We also contribute XMC (eXtended Modal Conflict), a four-condition conflict training resource, and evaluate transfer on CMC-Bench and Modality-Bias. Across multiple seeds, CARGO-VL improves conflict handling, unsupported-answer avoidance, and modality balance over pointwise baselines. Ablations identify complementary benefits from relational transition signals and adaptive risk control, supporting counterfactual consistency as a practical objective for reliable multimodal evidence arbitration.

We introduce Multi-Objective Counterfactuals for Design (MCD), a novel method for counterfactual optimization in design problems. Counterfactuals are hypothetical situations that can lead to a different decision or choice. In this paper, the authors frame the counterfactual search problem as a design recommendation tool that can help identify modifications to a design, leading to better functional performance. MCD improves upon existing counterfactual search methods by supporting multi-objective queries, which are crucial in design problems, and by decoupling the counterfactual search and sampling processes, thus enhancing efficiency and facilitating objective tradeoff visualization. The paper demonstrates MCD's core functionality using a two-dimensional test case, followed by three case studies of bicycle design that showcase MCD's effectiveness in real-world design problems. In the first case study, MCD excels at recommending modifications to query designs that can significantly enhance functional performance, such as weight savings and improvements to the structural safety factor. The second case study demonstrates that MCD can work with a pre-trained language model to suggest design changes based on a subjective text prompt effectively. Lastly, the authors task MCD with increasing a query design's similarity to a target image and text prompt while simultaneously reducing weight and improving structural performance, demonstrating MCD's performance on a complex multimodal query. Overall, MCD has the potential to provide valuable recommendations for practitioners and design automation researchers looking for answers to their ``What if'' questions by exploring hypothetical design modifications and their impact on multiple design objectives. The code, test problems, and datasets used in the paper are available to the public at decode.mit.edu/projects/counterfactuals/.

The ability to understand physical dynamics is critical for agents to act in the world. Here, we use Counterfactual World Modeling (CWM) to extract vision structures for dynamics understanding. CWM uses a temporally-factored masking policy for masked prediction of video data without annotations. This policy enables highly effective "counterfactual prompting" of the predictor, allowing a spectrum of visual structures to be extracted from a single pre-trained predictor without finetuning on annotated datasets. We demonstrate that these structures are useful for physical dynamics understanding, allowing CWM to achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the Physion benchmark.

Counterfactual explanations is one of the post-hoc methods used to provide explainability to machine learning models that have been attracting attention in recent years. Most examples in the literature, address the problem of generating post-hoc explanations for black-box machine learning models after the rejection of a loan application. In contrast, in this work, we investigate mathematical programming formulations for scorecard models, a type of interpretable model predominant within the banking industry for lending. The proposed mixed-integer programming formulations combine objective functions to ensure close, realistic and sparse counterfactuals using multi-objective optimization techniques for a binary, probability or continuous outcome. Moreover, we extend these formulations to generate multiple optimal counterfactuals simultaneously while guaranteeing diversity. Experiments on two real-world datasets confirm that the presented approach can generate optimal diverse counterfactuals addressing desired properties with assumable CPU times for practice use.

Counterfactual statements describe events that did not or cannot take place. We consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) in product reviews. For this purpose, we annotate a multilingual CFD dataset from Amazon product reviews covering counterfactual statements written in English, German, and Japanese languages. The dataset is unique as it contains counterfactuals in multiple languages, covers a new application area of e-commerce reviews, and provides high quality professional annotations. We train CFD models using different text representation methods and classifiers. We find that these models are robust against the selectional biases introduced due to cue phrase-based sentence selection. Moreover, our CFD dataset is compatible with prior datasets and can be merged to learn accurate CFD models. Applying machine translation on English counterfactual examples to create multilingual data performs poorly, demonstrating the language-specificity of this problem, which has been ignored so far.

As machine learning models evolve, maintaining transparency demands more human-centric explainable AI techniques. Counterfactual explanations, with roots in human reasoning, identify the minimal input changes needed to obtain a given output and, hence, are crucial for supporting decision-making. Despite their importance, the evaluation of these explanations often lacks grounding in user studies and remains fragmented, with existing metrics not fully capturing human perspectives. To address this challenge, we developed a diverse set of 30 counterfactual scenarios and collected ratings across 8 evaluation metrics from 206 respondents. Subsequently, we fine-tuned different Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict average or individual human judgment across these metrics. Our methodology allowed LLMs to achieve an accuracy of up to 63% in zero-shot evaluations and 85% (over a 3-classes prediction) with fine-tuning across all metrics. The fine-tuned models predicting human ratings offer better comparability and scalability in evaluating different counterfactual explanation frameworks.

This paper presents a way of enhancing the reliability of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) in addressing hallucination effects, where models generate incorrect or unrelated responses. Without additional instruction tuning paradigm, we introduce Counterfactual Inception, a novel method that implants counterfactual thoughts into LMMs using carefully chosen, misaligned counterfactual keywords. This method is grounded in the concept of counterfactual thinking, a cognitive process where humans consider alternative realities and outcomes. By applying this human-like reasoning mechanism to LMMs, we aim to reduce hallucination effects and improve the models' trustworthiness. We also propose Dual-modality Verification Process (DVP), a rigorous framework for selecting optimal counterfactual keywords to trigger counterfactual thinking into LMMs, concurrently considering visual and linguistic context. Our extensive experiments across various LMMs, including both open-source and proprietary models, corroborate that our method significantly mitigates hallucination phenomena across different datasets.

Large language model (LLM)-powered agents can translate high-level user intents into plans and actions in an environment. Yet after observing an outcome, users may wonder: What if I had phrased my intent differently? We introduce a framework that enables such counterfactual reasoning in agentic LLM-driven control scenarios, while providing formal reliability guarantees. Our approach models the closed-loop interaction between a user, an LLM-based agent, and an environment as a structural causal model (SCM), and leverages test-time scaling to generate multiple candidate counterfactual outcomes via probabilistic abduction. Through an offline calibration phase, the proposed conformal counterfactual generation (CCG) yields sets of counterfactual outcomes that are guaranteed to contain the true counterfactual outcome with high probability. We showcase the performance of CCG on a wireless network control use case, demonstrating significant advantages compared to naive re-execution baselines.

Large language models can answer scientific questions, yet a correct output does not reveal whether the model represents or uses the governing physics. Here we show that materials science mechanism information in the open-weight google/gemma-4-E4B-it model has three experimentally separable forms: concepts are readable in individual hidden states, constitutive orientation is carried by controlled transformations between states, and selected internal representations causally control engineering answers. We combine matched direct and Jacobian vocabulary readouts, option-free state geometry, a 60-law counterfactual benchmark and causal interventions. In 50 held-out materials descriptions, three independently fitted Jacobian lenses reproduced concept ranks, and target-free word sets from both readouts enabled blinded identification of 9 of 10 mechanism families. A separate 72-prompt benchmark produced mechanism-specific hidden-state neighborhoods, but an exact graph audit showed that this apparent physical organization was equally explained by numerical comparison. We therefore compared otherwise identical prompts in which only the direction of the physical input was reversed, asking whether the resulting hidden-state movement followed the supplied constitutive law. These state transformations ordered direct, physically neutral and inverse laws across 60 frozen relations and correctly oriented 39 of 40 directional laws, whereas lexical controls were near chance. Bidirectional interventions shifted answer probabilities toward or away from the physically appropriate outcome across all 12 matched cases, while counterfactual state patches transferred opposing decision signals across mechanisms and answer formats. Physical relationships were therefore more visible in controlled state changes than in absolute states alone.

Despite impressive visual fidelity, modern video generative models frequently produce sequences that violate intuitive physical laws, such as objects floating, teleporting, or morphing in ways that defy causality. While humans can easily detect such implausibilities, there remains no robust method for quantitatively assessing physical realism in video. In this work, we explore whether Video-Language Models (VLMs) can be trained to serve as reliable judges of physical plausibility. We find that existing VLMs struggle to identify physics violations, exposing fundamental limitations in their temporal and causal reasoning. To address this, we introduce TRAVL, a fine-tuning recipe that combines a balanced training dataset with a trajectory-aware attention module to improve motion encoding and discrimination in VLMs. To evaluate physical reasoning more rigorously, we propose ImplausiBench, a benchmark of 300 videos (150 real, 150 generated) that removes linguistic biases and isolates visual-temporal understanding. Performance is reported both with gold-standard human judgments and stricter LLM-as-judge metrics. Together, TRAVL and ImplausiBench offer a unified framework for probing and improving physical plausibility in multimodal models, shedding light on a challenging and underexplored aspect of visual-temporal understanding.

This study evaluates the effect of counterfactual explanations on the interpretation of chest X-rays. We conduct a reader study with two radiologists assessing 240 chest X-ray predictions to rate their confidence that the model's prediction is correct using a 5 point scale. Half of the predictions are false positives. Each prediction is explained twice, once using traditional attribution methods and once with a counterfactual explanation. The overall results indicate that counterfactual explanations allow a radiologist to have more confidence in true positive predictions compared to traditional approaches (0.15pm0.95 with p=0.01) with only a small increase in false positive predictions (0.04pm1.06 with p=0.57). We observe the specific prediction tasks of Mass and Atelectasis appear to benefit the most compared to other tasks.

Visual counterfactual explanation (CF) methods modify image concepts, e.g, shape, to change a prediction to a predefined outcome while closely resembling the original query image. Unlike self-explainable models (SEMs) and heatmap techniques, they grant users the ability to examine hypothetical "what-if" scenarios. Previous CF methods either entail post-hoc training, limiting the balance between transparency and CF quality, or demand optimization during inference. To bridge the gap between transparent SEMs and CF methods, we introduce the GdVAE, a self-explainable model based on a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE), featuring a Gaussian discriminant analysis (GDA) classifier and integrated CF explanations. Full transparency is achieved through a generative classifier that leverages class-specific prototypes for the downstream task and a closed-form solution for CFs in the latent space. The consistency of CFs is improved by regularizing the latent space with the explainer function. Extensive comparisons with existing approaches affirm the effectiveness of our method in producing high-quality CF explanations while preserving transparency. Code and models are public.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Large Language Models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, yet they frequently generate hallucinations outputs that are fluent but factually incorrect or unsupported. We propose Counterfactual Probing, a novel approach for detecting and mitigating hallucinations in LLM outputs. Our method dynamically generates counterfactual statements that appear plausible but contain subtle factual errors, then evaluates the model's sensitivity to these perturbations. We hypothesize that genuine knowledge exhibits robustness to counterfactual variations, while hallucinated content shows inconsistent confidence patterns when confronted with plausible alternatives. Our comprehensive evaluation on TruthfulQA, factual statement datasets, and curated hallucination examples demonstrates that counterfactual probing achieves superior detection performance compared to baseline methods, while our adaptive mitigation strategies reduce hallucination scores by an average of 24.5%. The approach requires no model retraining and can be integrated into existing LLM pipelines as a realtime verification mechanism.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Vision Language Models (VLMs) have recently shown significant advancements in video understanding, especially in feature alignment, event reasoning, and instruction-following tasks. However, their capability for counterfactual reasoning, inferring alternative outcomes under hypothetical conditions, remains underexplored. This capability is essential for robust video understanding, as it requires identifying underlying causal structures and reasoning about unobserved possibilities, rather than merely recognizing observed patterns. To systematically evaluate this capability, we introduce CounterVQA, a video-based benchmark featuring three progressive difficulty levels that assess different aspects of counterfactual reasoning. Through comprehensive evaluation of both state-of-the-art open-source and closed-source models, we uncover a substantial performance gap: while these models achieve reasonable accuracy on simple counterfactual questions, performance degrades significantly on complex multi-hop causal chains. To address these limitations, we develop a post-training method, CFGPT, that enhances a model's visual counterfactual reasoning ability by distilling its counterfactual reasoning capability from the language modality, yielding consistent improvements across all CounterVQA difficulty levels. Dataset and code will be further released.

Evaluating physical reasoning in video models is difficult because absolute motion measurements depend on frame rate, object scale, and camera calibration, all of which are often ambiguous or unavailable in generated video. We propose a different approach. When two objects in the same scene obey the same physical law, their motions must satisfy predictable relationships, and these relationships hold independent of calibration. We introduce Principia, a benchmark that evaluates Newtonian physics through relational consistency between paired objects. Principia spans eight phenomena - gravity, restitution, friction, rotational inertia, projectile motion, momentum, pendulum, and mass-spring oscillation - across translational, rotational, collisional, and oscillatory dynamics, using real-world scenes recorded under controlled protocols. We also introduce a calibration-independent consistency score that quantifies physical violation directly in image space. Across thousands of generations from six state-of-the-art video generators, no model exceeds 0.42 on Principia despite all scoring around 0.8 on VBench. Vision-language models are evaluated on their ability to detect relational physics violations, with the best model achieving only 67% accuracy and most performing near chance level.

Recent advances in generative video modeling, driven by large-scale datasets and powerful architectures, have yielded remarkable visual realism. However, emerging evidence suggests that simply scaling data and model size does not endow these systems with an understanding of the underlying physical laws that govern real-world dynamics. Existing approaches often fail to capture or enforce such physical consistency, resulting in unrealistic motion and dynamics. In his work, we investigate whether integrating the inference of latent physical properties directly into the video generation process can equip models with the ability to produce physically plausible videos. To this end, we propose Phantom, a Physics-Infused Video Generation model that jointly models the visual content and latent physical dynamics. Conditioned on observed video frames and inferred physical states, Phantom jointly predicts latent physical dynamics and generates future video frames. Phantom leverages a physics-aware video representation that serves as an abstract yet informaive embedding of the underlying physics, facilitating the joint prediction of physical dynamics alongside video content without requiring an explicit specification of a complex set of physical dynamics and properties. By integrating the inference of physical-aware video representation directly into the video generation process, Phantom produces video sequences that are both visually realistic and physically consistent. Quantitative and qualitative results on both standard video generation and physics-aware benchmarks demonstrate that Phantom not only outperforms existing methods in terms of adherence to physical dynamics but also delivers competitive perceptual fidelity.

Multimodal counterfactual reasoning is a vital yet challenging ability for AI systems. It involves predicting the outcomes of hypothetical circumstances based on vision and language inputs, which enables AI models to learn from failures and explore hypothetical scenarios. Despite its importance, there are only a few datasets targeting the counterfactual reasoning abilities of multimodal models. Among them, they only cover reasoning over synthetic environments or specific types of events (e.g. traffic collisions), making them hard to reliably benchmark the model generalization ability in diverse real-world scenarios and reasoning dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we develop a video question answering dataset, ACQUIRED: it consists of 3.9K annotated videos, encompassing a wide range of event types and incorporating both first and third-person viewpoints, which ensures a focus on real-world diversity. In addition, each video is annotated with questions that span three distinct dimensions of reasoning, including physical, social, and temporal, which can comprehensively evaluate the model counterfactual abilities along multiple aspects. We benchmark our dataset against several state-of-the-art language-only and multimodal models and experimental results demonstrate a significant performance gap (>13%) between models and humans. The findings suggest that multimodal counterfactual reasoning remains an open challenge and ACQUIRED is a comprehensive and reliable benchmark for inspiring future research in this direction.

Spatial consistency is a fundamental property of the visual world and a key requirement for models that aim to understand physical reality. Despite recent advances, multimodal large language models (MLLMs) often struggle to reason about 3D geometry across multiple views. Rather than asking models to describe scene attributes, we introduce a more challenging task: given two views of the same scene, identify the object that violates 3D motion consistency. We propose a simple and scalable method for generating realistic, spatially inconsistent image pairs from multi-view scenes, enabling systematic evaluation of this capability. Our results show that state-of-the-art MLLMs significantly underperform human observers and exhibit substantial variability across different scene attributes, revealing a fragile and incomplete understanding of 3D structure. We hope our findings underscore the need for approaches that develop a more deeply grounded understanding of the physical world.

Video generation models are increasingly used as world simulators for storytelling, simulation, and embodied AI. As these models advance, a key question arises: do generated videos obey the physical laws of the real world? Existing evaluations largely rely on automated metrics or coarse human judgments such as preferences or rubric-based checks. While useful for assessing perceptual quality, these methods provide limited insight into when and why generated dynamics violate real-world physical constraints. We introduce Physion-Eval, a large-scale benchmark of expert human reasoning for diagnosing physical realism failures in videos generated by five state-of-the-art models across egocentric and exocentric views, containing 10,990 expert reasoning traces spanning 22 fine-grained physical categories. Each generated video is derived from a corresponding real-world reference video depicting a clear physical process, and annotated with temporally localized glitches, structured failure categories, and natural-language explanations of the violated physical behavior. Using this dataset, we reveal a striking limitation of current video generation models: in physics-critical scenarios, 83.3% of exocentric and 93.5% of egocentric generated videos exhibit at least one human-identifiable physical glitch. We hope Physion-Eval will set a new standard for physical realism evaluation and guide the development of physics-grounded video generation. The benchmark is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/PhysionLabs/Physion-Eval.

Video generation models have achieved remarkable progress in creating high-quality, photorealistic content. However, their ability to accurately simulate physical phenomena remains a critical and unresolved challenge. This paper presents PhyWorldBench, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate video generation models based on their adherence to the laws of physics. The benchmark covers multiple levels of physical phenomena, ranging from fundamental principles like object motion and energy conservation to more complex scenarios involving rigid body interactions and human or animal motion. Additionally, we introduce a novel ""Anti-Physics"" category, where prompts intentionally violate real-world physics, enabling the assessment of whether models can follow such instructions while maintaining logical consistency. Besides large-scale human evaluation, we also design a simple yet effective method that could utilize current MLLM to evaluate the physics realism in a zero-shot fashion. We evaluate 12 state-of-the-art text-to-video generation models, including five open-source and five proprietary models, with a detailed comparison and analysis. we identify pivotal challenges models face in adhering to real-world physics. Through systematic testing of their outputs across 1,050 curated prompts-spanning fundamental, composite, and anti-physics scenarios-we identify pivotal challenges these models face in adhering to real-world physics. We then rigorously examine their performance on diverse physical phenomena with varying prompt types, deriving targeted recommendations for crafting prompts that enhance fidelity to physical principles.

We investigate how to enhance the physical fidelity of video generation models by leveraging synthetic videos derived from computer graphics pipelines. These rendered videos respect real-world physics, such as maintaining 3D consistency, and serve as a valuable resource that can potentially improve video generation models. To harness this potential, we propose a solution that curates and integrates synthetic data while introducing a method to transfer its physical realism to the model, significantly reducing unwanted artifacts. Through experiments on three representative tasks emphasizing physical consistency, we demonstrate its efficacy in enhancing physical fidelity. While our model still lacks a deep understanding of physics, our work offers one of the first empirical demonstrations that synthetic video enhances physical fidelity in video synthesis. Website: https://kevinz8866.github.io/simulation/

Counterfactual reasoning, a hallmark of intelligence, consists of three steps: inferring latent variables from observations (abduction), constructing alternatives (interventions), and predicting their outcomes (prediction). This skill is essential for advancing LLMs' causal understanding and expanding their applications in high-stakes domains such as scientific research. However, existing efforts in assessing LLM's counterfactual reasoning capabilities tend to skip the abduction step, effectively reducing to interventional reasoning and leading to overestimation of LLM performance. To address this, we introduce executable counterfactuals, a novel framework that operationalizes causal reasoning through code and math problems. Our framework explicitly requires all three steps of counterfactual reasoning and enables scalable synthetic data creation with varying difficulty, creating a frontier for evaluating and improving LLM's reasoning. Our results reveal substantial drop in accuracy (25-40%) from interventional to counterfactual reasoning for SOTA models like o4-mini and Claude-4-Sonnet. To address this gap, we construct a training set comprising counterfactual code problems having if-else condition and test on out-of-domain code structures (e.g. having while-loop); we also test whether a model trained on code would generalize to counterfactual math word problems. While supervised finetuning on stronger models' reasoning traces improves in-domain performance of Qwen models, it leads to a decrease in accuracy on OOD tasks such as counterfactual math problems. In contrast, reinforcement learning induces the core cognitive behaviors and generalizes to new domains, yielding gains over the base model on both code (improvement of 1.5x-2x) and math problems. Analysis of the reasoning traces reinforces these findings and highlights the promise of RL for improving LLMs' counterfactual reasoning.

Despite the progress of foundation models, knowledge-based reasoning remains a persistent challenge due to their limited capacity for knowledge recall and inference. Existing methods primarily focus on encouraging these models to plan and solve problems or extensively sample reasoning chains independently. However, these methods often overlook conceptual errors and inferential fallacies, inevitably leading to a series of notorious issues such as misleading conclusions, cognitive biases, and reduced decision quality. While explicit modeling of causality is argued to hold promise in addressing these issues, contemporary research efforts have thus far fallen short in achieving causality-based foundation models. Drawing inspiration from the orchestration of diverse specialized agents collaborating to tackle intricate tasks, we propose a framework named Causal-Consistency Chain-of-Thought (CaCo-CoT) that harnesses multi-agent collaboration to bolster the faithfulness and causality of foundation models, involving a set of reasoners and evaluators. These agents collaboratively work within a reasoning-and-consensus paradigm to improve faithfulness. The reasoners are tasked with generating reasoning chains for knowledge-intensive problems by mimicking human causal reasoning. Meanwhile, the evaluator scrutinizes the causal consistency of a reasoner's reasoning chain from a non-causal and a counterfactual perspective. Our framework demonstrates significant superiority over state-of-the-art methods through extensive and comprehensive evaluations across text-based and multi-modal knowledge reasoning tasks (e.g., science question answering and commonsense reasoning).

Text-to-image (T2I) generation models have achieved remarkable progress in producing visually realistic images from natural language prompts. Yet it remains unclear whether their success reflects genuine causal understanding or sophisticated pattern matching over visual-textual correlations. Inspired by Russell's inductivist turkey, we introduce Counterfactual-World (CF-World), a counterfactual benchmark designed to investigate whether text-to-image models can generate images under rules that systematically contradict real-world priors. CF-World organizes each scenario into three progressive levels: factual generation under ordinary world knowledge, explicit counterfactual generation with direct visual instructions, and implicit counterfactual generation requiring causal deduction from altered rules. We evaluate both open-source and closed-source T2I models using a Vision Language Model (VLM)-based evaluator (CF-Eval). Furthermore, we introduce two metrics: Prior Resistance Rate (PRR), which measures a model's ability to overcome entrenched real-world priors, and Reasoning Retention Rate (RRR), which assesses whether models can maintain reasoning-dependent counterfactual generation without explicit visual cues. Experiments show that all models exhibit sharp degradation from factual to counterfactual settings. Further analyses suggest that these failures arise because current T2I models encode world knowledge and visual appearances as tightly coupled patterns. Consequently, their heavy reliance on frequent visual co-occurrences within the training data forces them to default to familiar commonsense priors when tasked with rendering counterfactual worlds.

Recent advances in diffusion-based video generation have achieved remarkable visual realism but still struggle to obey basic physical laws such as gravity, inertia, and collision. Generated objects often move inconsistently across frames, exhibit implausible dynamics, or violate physical constraints, limiting the realism and reliability of AI-generated videos. We address this gap by introducing Physical Simulator In-the-loop Video Generation (PSIVG), a novel framework that integrates a physical simulator into the video diffusion process. Starting from a template video generated by a pre-trained diffusion model, PSIVG reconstructs the 4D scene and foreground object meshes, initializes them within a physical simulator, and generates physically consistent trajectories. These simulated trajectories are then used to guide the video generator toward spatio-temporally physically coherent motion. To further improve texture consistency during object movement, we propose a Test-Time Texture Consistency Optimization (TTCO) technique that adapts text and feature embeddings based on pixel correspondences from the simulator. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that PSIVG produces videos that better adhere to real-world physics while preserving visual quality and diversity. Project Page: https://vcai.mpi-inf.mpg.de/projects/PSIVG/

One well motivated explanation method for classifiers leverages counterfactuals which are hypothetical events identical to real observations in all aspects except for one categorical feature. Constructing such counterfactual poses specific challenges for texts, however, as some attribute values may not necessarily align with plausible real-world events. In this paper we propose a simple method for generating counterfactuals by intervening in the space of text representations which bypasses this limitation. We argue that our interventions are minimally disruptive and that they are theoretically sound as they align with counterfactuals as defined in Pearl's causal inference framework. To validate our method, we first conduct experiments on a synthetic dataset of counterfactuals, allowing for a direct comparison between classifier predictions based on ground truth counterfactuals (obtained through explicit text interventions) and our counterfactuals, derived through interventions in the representation space. Second, we study a real world scenario where our counterfactuals can be leveraged both for explaining a classifier and for bias mitigation.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have significantly enhanced their capabilities in complex problem-solving by introducing a thinking draft that enables multi-path Chain-of-Thought explorations before producing final answers. Ensuring the faithfulness of these intermediate reasoning processes is crucial for reliable monitoring, interpretation, and effective control. In this paper, we propose a systematic counterfactual intervention framework to rigorously evaluate thinking draft faithfulness. Our approach focuses on two complementary dimensions: (1) Intra-Draft Faithfulness, which assesses whether individual reasoning steps causally influence subsequent steps and the final draft conclusion through counterfactual step insertions; and (2) Draft-to-Answer Faithfulness, which evaluates whether final answers are logically consistent with and dependent on the thinking draft, by perturbing the draft's concluding logic. We conduct extensive experiments across six state-of-the-art LRMs. Our findings show that current LRMs demonstrate selective faithfulness to intermediate reasoning steps and frequently fail to faithfully align with the draft conclusions. These results underscore the need for more faithful and interpretable reasoning in advanced LRMs.

Understanding memorisation in language models has practical and societal implications, e.g., studying models' training dynamics or preventing copyright infringements. Prior work defines memorisation as the causal effect of training with an instance on the model's ability to predict that instance. This definition relies on a counterfactual: the ability to observe what would have happened had the model not seen that instance. Existing methods struggle to provide computationally efficient and accurate estimates of this counterfactual. Further, they often estimate memorisation for a model architecture rather than for a specific model instance. This paper fills an important gap in the literature, proposing a new, principled, and efficient method to estimate memorisation based on the difference-in-differences design from econometrics. Using this method, we characterise a model's memorisation profile--its memorisation trends across training--by only observing its behaviour on a small set of instances throughout training. In experiments with the Pythia model suite, we find that memorisation (i) is stronger and more persistent in larger models, (ii) is determined by data order and learning rate, and (iii) has stable trends across model sizes, thus making memorisation in larger models predictable from smaller ones.

Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these services. Prior reweighting-based counterfactual evaluation methods either suffer from high variance or make strong independence assumptions about rewards. We propose a new counterfactual estimator that allows for sequential interactions in the rewards with lower variance in an asymptotically unbiased manner. Our method uses graphical assumptions about the causal relationships of the slate to reweight the rewards in the logging policy in a way that approximates the expected sum of rewards under the target policy. Extensive experiments in simulation and on a live recommender system show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of bias and data efficiency for the sequential track recommendations problem.

Predictive Physical AI systems output state rollouts, action chunks, and latent plans, yet a low root-mean-square error (RMSE) does not imply that a particular proposal is physically executable. We formulate physical admissibility as a prediction-control interface: before execution, a decoded proposal is treated as candidate dynamics and evaluated using kinematic, dynamic, and direct-to-composed horizon conditions. Passing is not a certificate of task success; rejection identifies violation of the specified physical envelope and gives a component-level reason. On Hugging Face LeRobot PushT, controlled falsification shows that one-step prediction-RMSE and standardized dynamics residuals reach area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.982 and 0.972, kinematic-only conditions reach AUC 0.592, and the full gate reaches AUC 0.957 with condition-level attribution. In replay-based intervention experiments, residual-based filters and the full physical-admissibility gate prevent 87-$89% of invalid proposals while preserving mean progress near 0.998.

Automated detection of vulnerabilities in source code is an essential cybersecurity challenge, underpinning trust in digital systems and services. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a promising approach as they can learn structural and logical code relationships in a data-driven manner. However, their performance is severely constrained by training data imbalances and label noise. GNNs often learn 'spurious' correlations from superficial code similarities, producing detectors that fail to generalize well to unseen real-world data. In this work, we propose a unified framework for robust and interpretable vulnerability detection, called VISION, to mitigate spurious correlations by systematically augmenting a counterfactual training dataset. Counterfactuals are samples with minimal semantic modifications but opposite labels. Our framework includes: (i) generating counterfactuals by prompting a Large Language Model (LLM); (ii) targeted GNN training on paired code examples with opposite labels; and (iii) graph-based interpretability to identify the crucial code statements relevant for vulnerability predictions while ignoring spurious ones. We find that VISION reduces spurious learning and enables more robust, generalizable detection, improving overall accuracy (from 51.8% to 97.8%), pairwise contrast accuracy (from 4.5% to 95.8%), and worst-group accuracy (from 0.7% to 85.5%) on the Common Weakness Enumeration (CWE)-20 vulnerability. We further demonstrate gains using proposed metrics: intra-class attribution variance, inter-class attribution distance, and node score dependency. We also release CWE-20-CFA, a benchmark of 27,556 functions (real and counterfactual) from the high-impact CWE-20 category. Finally, VISION advances transparent and trustworthy AI-based cybersecurity systems through interactive visualization for human-in-the-loop analysis.

This paper uncovers a critical yet overlooked phenomenon in multi-modal large language models (MLLMs): detrimental concept drift within chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning during non-stationary reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), where reasoning token distributions evolve unpredictably, thereby introducing significant biases in final predictions. To address this, we are pioneers in establishing the theoretical bridge between concept drift theory and RFT processes by formalizing CoT's autoregressive token streams as non-stationary distributions undergoing arbitrary temporal shifts. Leveraging this framework, we propose a novel counterfact-aware RFT that systematically decouples beneficial distribution adaptation from harmful concept drift through concept graph-empowered LLM experts generating counterfactual reasoning trajectories. Our solution, Counterfactual Preference Optimization (CPO), enables stable RFT in non-stationary environments, particularly within the medical domain, through custom-tuning of counterfactual-aware preference alignment. Extensive experiments demonstrate our superior performance of robustness, generalization and coordination within RFT. Besides, we also contributed a large-scale dataset CXR-CounterFact (CCF), comprising 320,416 meticulously curated counterfactual reasoning trajectories derived from MIMIC-CXR. Our code and data are public.

Chart question-answering (QA) benchmarks aim to pose questions that require visual reasoning to correctly answer, but models can often reach solutions through shortcuts or prior familiarity with a chart based on their own background knowledge. To strictly evaluate visual reasoning, we propose counterfactual charts where the chart-question task remains fixed, but underlying chart and the corresponding answer are varied. We introduce Chartographer, a framework to reverse engineer charts into executable code, validate reconstruction fidelity, generate seed-controlled counterfactual variants, and derive new answers from executable QA logic. We apply this framework to existing chart QA datasets and evaluate proprietary and open-source vision-language models (VLMs), measuring variation sensitivity and generalizability. Counterfactual charts reveal failures hidden by single-chart performance: VLMs often fail to generalize after answering the original chart correctly. We find failures are most prevalent when updated charts require novel visual reasoning pathways.

As humans increasingly rely on multiround conversational AI for high stakes decisions, principled frameworks are needed to ensure such interactions reliably improve decision quality. We adopt a human centric view governed by two principles: counterfactual harm, ensuring the AI does not undermine human strengths, and complementarity, ensuring it adds value where the human is prone to err. We formalize these concepts via user defined rules, allowing users to specify exactly what harm and complementarity mean for their specific task. We then introduce an online, distribution free algorithm with finite sample guarantees that enforces the user-specified constraints over the collaboration dynamics. We evaluate our framework across two interactive settings: LLM simulated collaboration on a medical diagnostic task and a human crowdsourcing study on a pictorial reasoning task. We show that our online procedure maintains prescribed counterfactual harm and complementarity violation rates even under nonstationary interaction dynamics. Moreover, tightening or loosening these constraints produces predictable shifts in downstream human accuracy, confirming that the two principles serve as practical levers for steering multi-round collaboration toward better decision quality without the need to model or constrain human behavior.

Large language models (LLMs) are trained to imitate humans to explain human decisions. However, do LLMs explain themselves? Can they help humans build mental models of how LLMs process different inputs? To answer these questions, we propose to evaluate counterfactual simulatability of natural language explanations: whether an explanation can enable humans to precisely infer the model's outputs on diverse counterfactuals of the explained input. For example, if a model answers "yes" to the input question "Can eagles fly?" with the explanation "all birds can fly", then humans would infer from the explanation that it would also answer "yes" to the counterfactual input "Can penguins fly?". If the explanation is precise, then the model's answer should match humans' expectations. We implemented two metrics based on counterfactual simulatability: precision and generality. We generated diverse counterfactuals automatically using LLMs. We then used these metrics to evaluate state-of-the-art LLMs (e.g., GPT-4) on two tasks: multi-hop factual reasoning and reward modeling. We found that LLM's explanations have low precision and that precision does not correlate with plausibility. Therefore, naively optimizing human approvals (e.g., RLHF) may not be a sufficient solution.

Physical interactions follow a long-tailed distribution: a set of common and regular interactions dominates human experience and visual data, while a broad spectrum of rare and irregular interactions remains underrepresented. Although recent visual world models, including image and video generation models, achieve impressive realism on existing benchmarks, they primarily focus on simulating common physical interactions. This raises a central question: Do current visual world models internalize and generalize physical principles? In this work, we introduce Tailor-Bench, a benchmark that challenges world models to simulate irregular physical interactions. To enable systematic evaluation, we design three scenario modes that progressively challenge model reasoning: Regular scenarios reflect common tool-task pairs, Unconventional scenarios replace conventional tools with attribute-compatible substitutes to test affordance generalization, and Impossible scenarios introduce attribute-violating tools to probe constraint awareness. Additionally, we design two complementary settings under a unified evaluation protocol: predictive generation requires inferring outcomes without guidance, while descriptive generation specifies the target outcome for faithful realization. Our experimental results reveal a clear long-tail gap in physical world modeling: performance degrades from Regular to Unconventional and Impossible scenarios, indicating limited generalization beyond common interactions. Failure analysis further shows that models rely on superficial visual patterns: image models fail to realize correct state changes, while video models further suffer from temporal inconsistencies.

Counterfactual medical image generation enables clinicians to explore clinical hypotheses, such as predicting disease progression, facilitating their decision-making. While existing methods can generate visually plausible images from disease progression prompts, they produce silent predictions that lack interpretation to verify how the generation reflects the hypothesized progression -- a critical gap for medical applications that require traceable reasoning. In this paper, we propose Interpretable Counterfactual Generation (ICG), a novel task requiring the joint generation of counterfactual images that reflect the clinical hypothesis and interpretation texts that outline the visual changes induced by the hypothesis. To enable ICG, we present ICG-CXR, the first dataset pairing longitudinal medical images with hypothetical progression prompts and textual interpretations. We further introduce ProgEmu, an autoregressive model that unifies the generation of counterfactual images and textual interpretations. We demonstrate the superiority of ProgEmu in generating progression-aligned counterfactuals and interpretations, showing significant potential in enhancing clinical decision support and medical education. Project page: https://progemu.github.io.

Video large language models (Video LLMs) achieve strong benchmark accuracy, yet often answer video questions through shortcuts such as single-frame cues and language priors rather than by tracking spatiotemporal dynamics. This issue is exacerbated in RL post-training, where correctness-only rewards can further reinforce shortcut policies that obtain high reward without tracking video dynamics. We address this by asking a controlled counterfactual question: if the visual world changed while the question remained fixed, should the answer change or stay the same? Based on this view, we propose Counterfactual Relational Policy Optimization (CRPO), a dual-branch RL framework for improving spatiotemporal sensitivity. CRPO constructs counterfactual videos through horizontal flips and temporal reversals, trains on both original and counterfactual branches, and introduces a Counterfactual Relation Reward (CRR) between their answers. CRR encourages answers to change for dynamic questions and remain unchanged for static questions. This cross-branch constraint makes it difficult for shortcut policies to be consistently rewarded across both branches. To evaluate this property, we introduce DyBench, a paired counterfactual video benchmark with 3,014 videos covering reversible dynamics, moving direction, and event sequence, together with a strict pair-accuracy metric that prevents fixed-answer shortcuts from inflating scores. Experiments show that CRPO outperforms prior RL methods on spatiotemporal-sensitive evaluations while maintaining competitive general video performance. On Qwen3-VL-8B, CRPO improves DyBench P-Acc by +7.7 and TimeBlind I-Acc by +8.2 over the base model, indicating improved spatiotemporal sensitivity rather than stronger reliance on static shortcuts. The project website can be found at https://ddz16.github.io/crpo.github.io/ .

Concept-based explanations quantify how high-level concepts (e.g., gender or experience) influence model behavior, which is crucial for decision-makers in high-stakes domains. Recent work evaluates the faithfulness of such explanations by comparing them to reference causal effects estimated from counterfactuals. In practice, existing benchmarks rely on costly human-written counterfactuals that serve as an imperfect proxy. To address this, we introduce a framework for constructing datasets containing structural counterfactual pairs: LIBERTy (LLM-based Interventional Benchmark for Explainability with Reference Targets). LIBERTy is grounded in explicitly defined Structured Causal Models (SCMs) of the text generation, interventions on a concept propagate through the SCM until an LLM generates the counterfactual. We introduce three datasets (disease detection, CV screening, and workplace violence prediction) together with a new evaluation metric, order-faithfulness. Using them, we evaluate a wide range of methods across five models and identify substantial headroom for improving concept-based explanations. LIBERTy also enables systematic analysis of model sensitivity to interventions: we find that proprietary LLMs show markedly reduced sensitivity to demographic concepts, likely due to post-training mitigation. Overall, LIBERTy provides a much-needed benchmark for developing faithful explainability methods.

A physically motivated equation that determines the number of electrons of a molecule is proposed based on chemical common sense. It shows that all molecules are entangled in the number of electrons and results in the fundamental assumption of molecular energy convexity that underpins molecular quantum mechanics. The proposed physical principle includes the molecular size consistency principle as a special case. Application of wavefunction theory to the principle shows that an individual molecule with a noninteger number of electrons is locally physical albeit locally unreal. The energy of a molecule is piecewise linear with respect to its continuous number of electrons. The continuity of the number of electrons allows the definition of an electronic chemical potential of a single molecule. A state function equivalent to the energy of a molecule can be defined using the chemical potential as a variable. The aforementioned physical principle can alternatively be expressed as a simple additivity with the new state function. The latter also shows that the quantum entanglement in the number of electrons can be viewed as all molecules sharing the same chemical potential.

We present counterfactual planning as a design approach for creating a range of safety mechanisms that can be applied in hypothetical future AI systems which have Artificial General Intelligence. The key step in counterfactual planning is to use an AGI machine learning system to construct a counterfactual world model, designed to be different from the real world the system is in. A counterfactual planning agent determines the action that best maximizes expected utility in this counterfactual planning world, and then performs the same action in the real world. We use counterfactual planning to construct an AGI agent emergency stop button, and a safety interlock that will automatically stop the agent before it undergoes an intelligence explosion. We also construct an agent with an input terminal that can be used by humans to iteratively improve the agent's reward function, where the incentive for the agent to manipulate this improvement process is suppressed. As an example of counterfactual planning in a non-agent AGI system, we construct a counterfactual oracle. As a design approach, counterfactual planning is built around the use of a graphical notation for defining mathematical counterfactuals. This two-diagram notation also provides a compact and readable language for reasoning about the complex types of self-referencing and indirect representation which are typically present inside machine learning agents.

Most benchmarks for causal inference over time series are observational, small, or domain-specific, leaving interventional and counterfactual estimation under-served exactly where it matters most, such as in healthcare, policy evaluation, and climate science. We introduce DoTime, an open, scalable, and theoretically grounded generator of multivariate temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with interventions, released as the dotime PyPI package together with four frozen evaluation suites. Beyond existing work, it adds capabilities absent from prior generators: continuous-time intervention windows, counterfactual sampling modes with a positivity guard, regime-switching SCMs as a strict generalization of interrupted time series, non-stationary dynamics by construction with switching SCM parameters, and deterministic ramp and sinusoidal intervention profiles that place trends and structural breaks inside the evaluation window. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of the generator as a prior for a causal foundation model reference implementation. The released suites span a training-scale snapshot of 100{,}000 trajectories and eight named identification structures, each with exact ground truth: paired interventional trajectories from the same SCM throughout, and shared-noise counterfactuals in the continuous-time suite. We ship reference baseline implementations with an evaluation harness, and pose a falsifiable claim: interventional training buys a measurable direction-accuracy advantage over an observational model of identical capacity. It is tested across three training seeds per arm. Under structure-matched evaluation on held-out episodes, the interventional prior-fitted network's (PFN) gap is positive in every structure, trajectory length, and seed tested.

We provide an optimization-based framework to perform counterfactual analysis in a dynamic model with hidden states. Our framework is grounded in the ``abduction, action, and prediction'' approach to answer counterfactual queries and handles two key challenges where (1) the states are hidden and (2) the model is dynamic. Recognizing the lack of knowledge on the underlying causal mechanism and the possibility of infinitely many such mechanisms, we optimize over this space and compute upper and lower bounds on the counterfactual quantity of interest. Our work brings together ideas from causality, state-space models, simulation, and optimization, and we apply it on a breast cancer case study. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to compute lower and upper bounds on a counterfactual query in a dynamic latent-state model.

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual distributions by minimizing kernel Stein discrepancies in a doubly robust manner. This enables the estimation of counterfactuals over large classes of distributions while exploiting the desired double robustness. We present a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator, providing sufficient conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as an examination of its empirical performance.

Causal explanations of the predictions of NLP systems are essential to ensure safety and establish trust. Yet, existing methods often fall short of explaining model predictions effectively or efficiently and are often model-specific. In this paper, we address model-agnostic explanations, proposing two approaches for counterfactual (CF) approximation. The first approach is CF generation, where a large language model (LLM) is prompted to change a specific text concept while keeping confounding concepts unchanged. While this approach is demonstrated to be very effective, applying LLM at inference-time is costly. We hence present a second approach based on matching, and propose a method that is guided by an LLM at training-time and learns a dedicated embedding space. This space is faithful to a given causal graph and effectively serves to identify matches that approximate CFs. After showing theoretically that approximating CFs is required in order to construct faithful explanations, we benchmark our approaches and explain several models, including LLMs with billions of parameters. Our empirical results demonstrate the excellent performance of CF generation models as model-agnostic explainers. Moreover, our matching approach, which requires far less test-time resources, also provides effective explanations, surpassing many baselines. We also find that Top-K techniques universally improve every tested method. Finally, we showcase the potential of LLMs in constructing new benchmarks for model explanation and subsequently validate our conclusions. Our work illuminates new pathways for efficient and accurate approaches to interpreting NLP systems.

Video generators are increasingly evaluated as potential world models, which requires them to encode and understand physical laws. We investigate their representation of a fundamental law: gravity. Out-of-the-box video generators consistently generate objects falling at an effectively slower acceleration. However, these physical tests are often confounded by ambiguous metric scale. We first investigate if observed physical errors are artifacts of these ambiguities (e.g., incorrect frame rate assumptions). We find that even temporal rescaling cannot correct the high-variance gravity artifacts. To rigorously isolate the underlying physical representation from these confounds, we introduce a unit-free, two-object protocol that tests the timing ratio t_1^2/t_2^2 = h_1/h_2, a relationship independent of g, focal length, and scale. This relative test reveals violations of Galileo's equivalence principle. We then demonstrate that this physical gap can be partially mitigated with targeted specialization. A lightweight low-rank adaptor fine-tuned on only 100 single-ball clips raises g_{eff} from 1.81,m/s^2 to 6.43,m/s^2 (reaching 65% of terrestrial gravity). This specialist adaptor also generalizes zero-shot to two-ball drops and inclined planes, offering initial evidence that specific physical laws can be corrected with minimal data.

Although counterfactual reasoning is a fundamental aspect of intelligence, the lack of large-scale counterfactual open-domain question-answering (QA) benchmarks makes it difficult to evaluate and improve models on this ability. To address this void, we introduce the first such dataset, named IfQA, where each question is based on a counterfactual presupposition via an "if" clause. For example, if Los Angeles was on the east coast of the U.S., what would be the time difference between Los Angeles and Paris? Such questions require models to go beyond retrieving direct factual knowledge from the Web: they must identify the right information to retrieve and reason about an imagined situation that may even go against the facts built into their parameters. The IfQA dataset contains over 3,800 questions that were annotated annotated by crowdworkers on relevant Wikipedia passages. Empirical analysis reveals that the IfQA dataset is highly challenging for existing open-domain QA methods, including supervised retrieve-then-read pipeline methods (EM score 36.2), as well as recent few-shot approaches such as chain-of-thought prompting with GPT-3 (EM score 27.4). The unique challenges posed by the IfQA benchmark will push open-domain QA research on both retrieval and counterfactual reasoning fronts.

Models trained with counterfactually augmented data learn representations of the causal structure of tasks, enabling robust generalization. However, high-quality counterfactual data is scarce for most tasks and not easily generated at scale. When crowdsourced, such data is typically limited in scale and diversity; when generated using supervised methods, it is computationally expensive to extend to new counterfactual dimensions. In this work, we introduce DISCO (DIStilled COunterfactual Data), a new method for automatically generating high quality counterfactual data at scale. DISCO engineers prompts to generate phrasal perturbations with a large general language model. Then, a task-specific teacher model filters these generations to distill high-quality counterfactual data. While task-agnostic, we apply our pipeline to the task of natural language inference (NLI) and find that on challenging evaluations such as the NLI stress test, comparatively smaller student models trained with DISCO generated counterfactuals are more robust (6% absolute) and generalize better across distributions (2%) compared to models trained without data augmentation. Furthermore, DISCO augmented models are 10% more consistent between counterfactual pairs on three evaluation sets, demonstrating that DISCO augmentation enables models to more reliably learn causal representations. Our repository is available at: https://github.com/eric11eca/disco

Structural modeling is a fundamental component of computational engineering science, in which even minor physical inconsistencies or specification violations may invalidate downstream simulations. The potential of large language models (LLMs) for automatic generation of modeling code has been demonstrated. However, non-executable or physically inconsistent outputs remain prevalent under stringent engineering constraints. A framework for physics-consistent automatic building modeling is therefore proposed, integrating domain knowledge construction, constraint-oriented model alignment, and verification-driven evaluation. CivilInstruct is introduced as a domain-specific dataset that formalizes structural engineering knowledge and constraint reasoning to enable simulation-ready model generation. A two-stage fine-tuning strategy is further employed to enforce constraint satisfaction and application programming interface compliance, substantially reducing hallucinated and non-conforming outputs. MBEval is presented as a verification-driven benchmark that evaluates executability and structural dynamics consistency through closed-loop validation. Experimental results show consistent improvements over baselines across rigorous verification metrics. Our code is available at https://github.com/Jovanqing/AutoBM.

Infrared unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) tracking is challenging because the target is often small, low-contrast, and easily confused with thermal distractors or cluttered backgrounds. Recent Transformer-based trackers have achieved promising performance by learning strong appearance representations, but their responses can still be dominated by background structures when the target appearance is weak or ambiguous. A natural solution is to introduce temporal motion cues. However, in infrared UAV tracking, motion cues are not always reliable: camera jitter, dynamic backgrounds, sensor noise, and target disappearance may produce temporal variations that are stronger than the true target motion. Therefore, the key challenge is not simply how to use motion, but how to distinguish target-consistent motion from background-induced pseudo motion. To this end, we propose CMRTrack, a counterfactual motion reliability learning framework for robust infrared UAV tracking. CMRTrack first extracts temporal evidence from adjacent search regions using a lightweight motion evidence encoder. During training, a counterfactual target-erased history branch is introduced to construct hard motion references, encouraging the motion encoder to learn reliable target-consistent motion rather than arbitrary temporal changes. The learned motion evidence is then incorporated into a one-stream tracking framework through motion-guided token modulation and reliability-aware score fusion, enabling adaptive feature enhancement and response refinement. Extensive experiments on Anti-UAV410 demonstrate that CMRTrack consistently outperforms representative state-of-the-art trackers and significantly improves the OSTrack baseline, with ablation studies and qualitative analysis verifying the effectiveness of the proposed counterfactual motion reliability learning.

Physical principles are fundamental to realistic visual simulation, but remain a significant oversight in transformer-based video generation. This gap highlights a critical limitation in rendering rigid body motion, a core tenet of classical mechanics. While computer graphics and physics-based simulators can easily model such collisions using Newton formulas, modern pretrain-finetune paradigms discard the concept of object rigidity during pixel-level global denoising. Even perfectly correct mathematical constraints are treated as suboptimal solutions (i.e., conditions) during model optimization in post-training, fundamentally limiting the physical realism of generated videos. Motivated by these considerations, we introduce, for the first time, a physics-aware reinforcement learning paradigm for video generation models that enforces physical collision rules directly in high-dimensional spaces, ensuring the physics knowledge is strictly applied rather than treated as conditions. Subsequently, we extend this paradigm to a unified framework, termed Mimicry-Discovery Cycle (MDcycle), which allows substantial fine-tuning while fully preserving the model's ability to leverage physics-grounded feedback. To validate our approach, we construct new benchmark PhysRVGBench and perform extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments to thoroughly assess its effectiveness.

Understanding the physical world - governed by laws of motion, spatial relations, and causality - poses a fundamental challenge for multimodal large language models (MLLMs). While recent advances such as OpenAI o3 and GPT-4o demonstrate impressive perceptual and reasoning capabilities, our investigation reveals these models struggle profoundly with visual physical reasoning, failing to grasp basic physical laws, spatial interactions, and causal effects in complex scenes. More importantly, they often fail to follow coherent reasoning chains grounded in visual evidence, especially when multiple steps are needed to arrive at the correct answer. To rigorously evaluate this capability, we introduce MVPBench, a curated benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate visual physical reasoning through the lens of visual chain-of-thought (CoT). Each example features interleaved multi-image inputs and demands not only the correct final answer but also a coherent, step-by-step reasoning path grounded in evolving visual cues. This setup mirrors how humans reason through real-world physical processes over time. To ensure fine-grained evaluation, we introduce a graph-based CoT consistency metric that verifies whether the reasoning path of model adheres to valid physical logic. Additionally, we minimize shortcut exploitation from text priors, encouraging models to rely on visual understanding. Experimental results reveal a concerning trend: even cutting-edge MLLMs exhibit poor visual reasoning accuracy and weak image-text alignment in physical domains. Surprisingly, RL-based post-training alignment - commonly believed to improve visual reasoning performance - often harms spatial reasoning, suggesting a need to rethink current fine-tuning practices.

For many real-world systems, causal ground truth is difficult to obtain, making claims about causal effects hard to assess. We develop methods for evaluating collections of n{2} bivariate causal statements over a set of n variables. In the setting of acyclic linear statements, any such collection can be extended to a unique multivariate causal model, but we argue that this induced model is implausible if it imposes substantial additional confounding to explain observed correlations. We introduce a compatibility score that quantifies this notion of plausibility, notably without relying on the faithfulness assumption. Additionally, we define an incompatibility score for purely graphical bivariate causal statements, based on global consistency constraints that are derived from acyclicity and faithfulness assumptions. We give theoretical and empirical evidence that both scores can successfully distinguish correct from incorrect causal statements in generic settings. Moreover, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our methods by analyzing causal claims made by large language models. Our work aims to provide a foundation for assessing the reliability of causal information derived from human experts or artificial intelligence in settings where alternative forms of validation are unavailable.

Machine Learning methods can learn how to reconstruct Magnetic Resonance Images and thereby accelerate acquisition, which is of paramount importance to the clinical workflow. Physics-informed networks incorporate the forward model of accelerated MRI reconstruction in the learning process. With increasing network complexity, robustness is not ensured when reconstructing data unseen during training. We aim to embed data consistency (DC) in deep networks while balancing the degree of network complexity. While doing so, we will assess whether either explicit or implicit enforcement of DC in varying network architectures is preferred to optimize performance. We propose a scheme called Cascades of Independently Recurrent Inference Machines (CIRIM) to assess DC through unrolled optimization. Herein we assess DC both implicitly by gradient descent and explicitly by a designed term. Extensive comparison of the CIRIM to CS as well as to other methods is performed: the E2EVN, CascadeNet, KIKINet, LPDNet, RIM, IRIM, and UNet. Models were trained and evaluated on T1-weighted and FLAIR contrast brain data, and T2-weighted knee data. Both 1D and 2D undersampling patterns were evaluated. Robustness was tested by reconstructing 7.5x prospectively undersampled 3D FLAIR MRI data of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients with white matter lesions. The CIRIM performed best when implicitly enforcing DC, while the E2EVN required an explicit DC formulation. In reconstructing MS patient data, prospectively acquired with a sampling pattern unseen during model training, the CIRIM maintained lesion contrast while efficiently denoising the images. The CIRIM showed highly promising generalization capabilities maintaining a very fair trade-off between reconstructed image quality and fast reconstruction times, which is crucial in the clinical workflow.

Joint audio-video generation models are rapidly approaching professional production quality, raising a central question: do they understand audio-visual physics, or merely generate plausible sounds and frames that violate real-world consistency? We introduce AV-Phys Bench, a benchmark for evaluating physical commonsense in joint audio-video generation. AV-Phys Bench tests models across three scene categories: Steady State, Event Transition, and Environment Transition. It covers physics-grounded subcategories drawn from real-world scenes, plus Anti-AV-Physics prompts that deliberately request physically inconsistent audio-video behavior. Each generation is evaluated along five dimensions: visual semantic adherence, audio semantic adherence, visual physical commonsense, audio physical commonsense, and cross-modal physical commonsense. Across three proprietary and four open-source models, we find that Seedance 2.0 performs best overall, but all models remain far from robust physical understanding. Performance drops sharply on event-driven and environment-driven transitions, and even strong proprietary systems collapse on Anti-AV-Physics prompts. We further introduce AV-Phys Agent, a ReAct-style evaluator that combines a multimodal language model with deterministic acoustic measurement tools, producing rankings that closely align with human ratings. Our results identify cross-modal physical consistency and transition-driven scene dynamics as key open challenges for joint audio-video generation.

Recent advances in image and video generation raise hopes that these models possess world modeling capabilities, the ability to generate realistic, physically plausible videos. This could revolutionize applications in robotics, autonomous driving, and scientific simulation. However, before treating these models as world models, we must ask: Do they adhere to physical conservation laws? To answer this, we introduce Morpheus, a benchmark for evaluating video generation models on physical reasoning. It features 80 real-world videos capturing physical phenomena, guided by conservation laws. Since artificial generations lack ground truth, we assess physical plausibility using physics-informed metrics evaluated with respect to infallible conservation laws known per physical setting, leveraging advances in physics-informed neural networks and vision-language foundation models. Our findings reveal that even with advanced prompting and video conditioning, current models struggle to encode physical principles despite generating aesthetically pleasing videos. All data, leaderboard, and code are open-sourced at our project page.

Counterfactual image generation presents significant challenges, including preserving identity, maintaining perceptual quality, and ensuring faithfulness to an underlying causal model. While existing auto-encoding frameworks admit semantic latent spaces which can be manipulated for causal control, they struggle with scalability and fidelity. Advancements in diffusion models present opportunities for improving counterfactual image editing, having demonstrated state-of-the-art visual quality, human-aligned perception and representation learning capabilities. Here, we present a suite of diffusion-based causal mechanisms, introducing the notions of spatial, semantic and dynamic abduction. We propose a general framework that integrates semantic representations into diffusion models through the lens of Pearlian causality to edit images via a counterfactual reasoning process. To our knowledge, this is the first work to consider high-level semantic identity preservation for diffusion counterfactuals and to demonstrate how semantic control enables principled trade-offs between faithful causal control and identity preservation.

We present a computational framework that transforms single images into 3D physical objects. The visual geometry of a physical object in an image is determined by three orthogonal attributes: mechanical properties, external forces, and rest-shape geometry. Existing single-view 3D reconstruction methods often overlook this underlying composition, presuming rigidity or neglecting external forces. Consequently, the reconstructed objects fail to withstand real-world physical forces, resulting in instability or undesirable deformation -- diverging from their intended designs as depicted in the image. Our optimization framework addresses this by embedding physical compatibility into the reconstruction process. We explicitly decompose the three physical attributes and link them through static equilibrium, which serves as a hard constraint, ensuring that the optimized physical shapes exhibit desired physical behaviors. Evaluations on a dataset collected from Objaverse demonstrate that our framework consistently enhances the physical realism of 3D models over existing methods. The utility of our framework extends to practical applications in dynamic simulations and 3D printing, where adherence to physical compatibility is paramount.

Recent advancements in video generation have witnessed significant progress, especially with the rapid advancement of diffusion models. Despite this, their deficiencies in physical cognition have gradually received widespread attention - generated content often violates the fundamental laws of physics, falling into the dilemma of ''visual realism but physical absurdity". Researchers began to increasingly recognize the importance of physical fidelity in video generation and attempted to integrate heuristic physical cognition such as motion representations and physical knowledge into generative systems to simulate real-world dynamic scenarios. Considering the lack of a systematic overview in this field, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive summary of architecture designs and their applications to fill this gap. Specifically, we discuss and organize the evolutionary process of physical cognition in video generation from a cognitive science perspective, while proposing a three-tier taxonomy: 1) basic schema perception for generation, 2) passive cognition of physical knowledge for generation, and 3) active cognition for world simulation, encompassing state-of-the-art methods, classical paradigms, and benchmarks. Subsequently, we emphasize the inherent key challenges in this domain and delineate potential pathways for future research, contributing to advancing the frontiers of discussion in both academia and industry. Through structured review and interdisciplinary analysis, this survey aims to provide directional guidance for developing interpretable, controllable, and physically consistent video generation paradigms, thereby propelling generative models from the stage of ''visual mimicry'' towards a new phase of ''human-like physical comprehension''.

Vision-language model safety benchmarks typically evaluate only final responses: whether a model refuses, warns, or complies. This outcome-level view cannot tell whether a model is safe for the right multimodal reason. Safelooking behavior may reflect keyword-triggered refusal, missed visual hazards, or over-refusal of benign-sensitive inputs. We introduce EviSafe, an evidence-grounded framework for VLM safety that jointly evaluates natural user-facing behavior, explicit grounding in textual and visual evidence, and behavioral sensitivity to counterfactual changes in safety-critical evidence. EviSafeBench instantiates the framework as a controlled benchmark with 1,181 gold image-text scenarios and 2,452 targeted counterfactual variants across eight safety domains and eight risk-source types. Each scenario includes a gold safety decision, evidence annotations, a safe-response policy, and counterfactual interventions. The three-probe protocol queries models with natural-response, evidencereporting, and counterfactual-response prompts, then scores them using an evidence-aware judge. Across eleven evaluated VLMs, natural severity accuracy ranges from 27.6% to 52.8%, relaxed diagnostic consistency from 6.1% to 29.3%, and unsafe-to-safe counterfactual transition success from 30.4% to 58.4%. These gaps show that the evaluated VLMs are not reliably safe for the right multimodal reason and motivate evaluation beyond refusal counts.

Flow matching (FM) is a general framework for defining probability paths via Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to transform between noise and data samples. Recent approaches attempt to straighten these flow trajectories to generate high-quality samples with fewer function evaluations, typically through iterative rectification methods or optimal transport solutions. In this paper, we introduce Consistency Flow Matching (Consistency-FM), a novel FM method that explicitly enforces self-consistency in the velocity field. Consistency-FM directly defines straight flows starting from different times to the same endpoint, imposing constraints on their velocity values. Additionally, we propose a multi-segment training approach for Consistency-FM to enhance expressiveness, achieving a better trade-off between sampling quality and speed. Preliminary experiments demonstrate that our Consistency-FM significantly improves training efficiency by converging 4.4x faster than consistency models and 1.7x faster than rectified flow models while achieving better generation quality. Our code is available at: https://github.com/YangLing0818/consistency_flow_matching

Machine learning plays a role in many deployed decision systems, often in ways that are difficult or impossible to understand by human stakeholders. Explaining, in a human-understandable way, the relationship between the input and output of machine learning models is essential to the development of trustworthy machine learning based systems. A burgeoning body of research seeks to define the goals and methods of explainability in machine learning. In this paper, we seek to review and categorize research on counterfactual explanations, a specific class of explanation that provides a link between what could have happened had input to a model been changed in a particular way. Modern approaches to counterfactual explainability in machine learning draw connections to the established legal doctrine in many countries, making them appealing to fielded systems in high-impact areas such as finance and healthcare. Thus, we design a rubric with desirable properties of counterfactual explanation algorithms and comprehensively evaluate all currently proposed algorithms against that rubric. Our rubric provides easy comparison and comprehension of the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and serves as an introduction to major research themes in this field. We also identify gaps and discuss promising research directions in the space of counterfactual explainability.

Counterfactual examples have proven to be valuable in the field of natural language processing (NLP) for both evaluating and improving the robustness of language models to spurious correlations in datasets. Despite their demonstrated utility for NLP, multimodal counterfactual examples have been relatively unexplored due to the difficulty of creating paired image-text data with minimal counterfactual changes. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable framework for automatic generation of counterfactual examples using text-to-image diffusion models. We use our framework to create COCO-Counterfactuals, a multimodal counterfactual dataset of paired image and text captions based on the MS-COCO dataset. We validate the quality of COCO-Counterfactuals through human evaluations and show that existing multimodal models are challenged by our counterfactual image-text pairs. Additionally, we demonstrate the usefulness of COCO-Counterfactuals for improving out-of-domain generalization of multimodal vision-language models via training data augmentation.

Counterfactual text generation aims to minimally change a text, such that it is classified differently. Judging advancements in method development for counterfactual text generation is hindered by a non-uniform usage of data sets and metrics in related work. We propose CEval, a benchmark for comparing counterfactual text generation methods. CEval unifies counterfactual and text quality metrics, includes common counterfactual datasets with human annotations, standard baselines (MICE, GDBA, CREST) and the open-source language model LLAMA-2. Our experiments found no perfect method for generating counterfactual text. Methods that excel at counterfactual metrics often produce lower-quality text while LLMs with simple prompts generate high-quality text but struggle with counterfactual criteria. By making CEval available as an open-source Python library, we encourage the community to contribute more methods and maintain consistent evaluation in future work.

Data attribution seeks to trace model outputs back to training data. With the recent development of diffusion models, data attribution has become a desired module to properly assign valuations for high-quality or copyrighted training samples, ensuring that data contributors are fairly compensated or credited. Several theoretically motivated methods have been proposed to implement data attribution, in an effort to improve the trade-off between computational scalability and effectiveness. In this work, we conduct extensive experiments and ablation studies on attributing diffusion models, specifically focusing on DDPMs trained on CIFAR-10 and CelebA, as well as a Stable Diffusion model LoRA-finetuned on ArtBench. Intriguingly, we report counter-intuitive observations that theoretically unjustified design choices for attribution empirically outperform previous baselines by a large margin, in terms of both linear datamodeling score and counterfactual evaluation. Our work presents a significantly more efficient approach for attributing diffusion models, while the unexpected findings suggest that at least in non-convex settings, constructions guided by theoretical assumptions may lead to inferior attribution performance. The code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/D-TRAK.

While state-of-the-art NLP models have been achieving the excellent performance of a wide range of tasks in recent years, important questions are being raised about their robustness and their underlying sensitivity to systematic biases that may exist in their training and test data. Such issues come to be manifest in performance problems when faced with out-of-distribution data in the field. One recent solution has been to use counterfactually augmented datasets in order to reduce any reliance on spurious patterns that may exist in the original data. Producing high-quality augmented data can be costly and time-consuming as it usually needs to involve human feedback and crowdsourcing efforts. In this work, we propose an alternative by describing and evaluating an approach to automatically generating counterfactual data for data augmentation and explanation. A comprehensive evaluation on several different datasets and using a variety of state-of-the-art benchmarks demonstrate how our approach can achieve significant improvements in model performance when compared to models training on the original data and even when compared to models trained with the benefit of human-generated augmented data.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) perform well on tasks such as visual question answering, but it remains unclear whether their reasoning relies more on memorized world knowledge or on the visual information present in the input image. To investigate this, we introduce Visual CounterFact, a new dataset of visually-realistic counterfactuals that put world knowledge priors (e.g, red strawberry) into direct conflict with visual input (e.g, blue strawberry). Using Visual CounterFact, we show that model predictions initially reflect memorized priors, but shift toward visual evidence in mid-to-late layers. This dynamic reveals a competition between the two modalities, with visual input ultimately overriding priors during evaluation. To control this behavior, we propose Pixels Versus Priors (PvP) steering vectors, a mechanism for controlling model outputs toward either world knowledge or visual input through activation-level interventions. On average, PvP successfully shifts 92.5% of color and 74.6% of size predictions from priors to counterfactuals. Together, these findings offer new tools for interpreting and controlling factual behavior in multimodal models.

Self-improving AI agents are designed to learn from their mistakes. We show they can also hallucinate mistakes that never happened. We study this failure mode in automated harness optimization, where an LLM-based proposer edits an agent's scaffold, including prompts, parsers, filters, validators and guardrails, to eliminate observed failures. But this process rarely asks first: was there a real failure to fix? We introduce the Counterfactual Fabrication Lab, a deterministic micro-lab where the correct action is known: do nothing. The lab plants a candidate guardrail for a failure class that provably never occurs, presents only legal episodes, and uses a byte-exact oracle to check every cited violation. The proposer behaves as expected on real violations and abstains on featureless legal input. Yet when the legal input contains a harmless pattern resembling a familiar game rule, it invents a failure: in 15/60 runs, versus 0/60 on featureless input, it enables the nonexistent-rule guardrail and cites a violation the oracle refutes. The effect is structured, not indiscriminate. In single-shot proposals it appears only when three conditions coincide: a rule-shaped pattern, an open-ended rule set and an instruction that presupposes failures. Removing any of these conditions eliminates the fabrication. Because the invented guardrail changes no true outcome and cannot improve an already-perfect suppression score, the phenomenon is neither reward hacking nor over-refusal. It is a phantom guardrail: a fix for a failure that never happened, invisible to suppression-only acceptance. Inside an add-only accept loop it re-enters even without the failure-presupposing instruction, the loop's keep-adding role supplying the demand the instruction supplied in single shot, and once in it stays. We present the Counterfactual Fabrication Lab for measuring fabricated failures in self-improving agent harnesses.

Traffic safety science has long been hindered by a fundamental data paradox: the crashes we most wish to prevent are precisely those events we rarely observe. Existing crash-frequency models and surrogate safety metrics rely heavily on sparse, noisy, and under-reported records, while even sophisticated, high-fidelity simulations undersample the long-tailed situations that trigger catastrophic outcomes such as fatalities. We argue that the path to achieving Vision Zero, i.e., the complete elimination of traffic fatalities and severe injuries, requires a paradigm shift from traditional crash-only learning to a new form of counterfactual safety learning: reasoning not only about what happened, but also about the vast set of plausible yet perilous scenarios that could have happened under slightly different circumstances. To operationalize this shift, our proposed agenda bridges macro to micro. Guided by crash-rate priors, generative scene engines, diverse driver models, and causal learning, near-miss events are synthesized and explained. A crash-focused digital twin testbed links micro scenes to macro patterns, while a multi-objective validator ensures that simulations maintain statistical realism. This pipeline transforms sparse crash data into rich signals for crash prediction, enabling the stress-testing of vehicles, roads, and policies before deployment. By learning from crashes that almost happened, we can shift traffic safety from reactive forensics to proactive prevention, advancing Vision Zero.

Diffusion models have revolutionized image editing but often generate images that violate physical laws, particularly the effects of objects on the scene, e.g., occlusions, shadows, and reflections. By analyzing the limitations of self-supervised approaches, we propose a practical solution centered on a counterfactual dataset. Our method involves capturing a scene before and after removing a single object, while minimizing other changes. By fine-tuning a diffusion model on this dataset, we are able to not only remove objects but also their effects on the scene. However, we find that applying this approach for photorealistic object insertion requires an impractically large dataset. To tackle this challenge, we propose bootstrap supervision; leveraging our object removal model trained on a small counterfactual dataset, we synthetically expand this dataset considerably. Our approach significantly outperforms prior methods in photorealistic object removal and insertion, particularly at modeling the effects of objects on the scene.

Counterfactual statements, which describe events that did not or cannot take place, are beneficial to numerous NLP applications. Hence, we consider the problem of counterfactual detection (CFD) and seek to enhance the CFD models. Previous models are reliant on clue phrases to predict counterfactuality, so they suffer from significant performance drop when clue phrase hints do not exist during testing. Moreover, these models tend to predict non-counterfactuals over counterfactuals. To address these issues, we propose to integrate neural topic model into the CFD model to capture the global semantics of the input statement. We continue to causally intervene the hidden representations of the CFD model to balance the effect of the class labels. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms previous state-of-the-art CFD and bias-resolving methods in both the CFD and other bias-sensitive tasks.

Live streaming has emerged as a primary medium for social interaction and digital commerce, yet it is increasingly plagued by sophisticated risks. A fundamental challenge in this domain is tactical out-of-distribution (OOD) shift: while malicious actors maintain stable underlying objectives, they continuously redesign narrative packaging to evade detection. Such adversarial shifts expose critical limitations of existing OOD generalization paradigms, whose assumptions are difficult to satisfy in the presence of tightly coupled intent-tactic evolution and ill-defined raw-level counterfactuals. In this paper, we tackle this issue from a latent causal perspective and propose Latent-Predictive Counterfactual Decoupling~(LPCD), a plug-in framework for robust live streaming risk assessment. LPCD enables counterfactual reasoning under adversarial tactical re-packaging by modeling intent and narrative variation at the latent level, and enforces latent counterfactual consistency to anchor risk prediction on causally stable malicious intent. At inference time, LPCD applies a lightweight, parameter-free calibration to further mitigate tactic-induced distribution shifts. Extensive experiments on large-scale industrial datasets and online production traffic demonstrate that LPCD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, validating its effectiveness in moderating evolving adversarial risks in real-world live streaming. The project page is available at https://qiaoyran.github.io/LiveStreamingRiskAssessment/.

Recent advancements in recommender systems have focused on leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve user preference modeling, yielding promising outcomes. However, current LLM-based approaches struggle to fully leverage user behavior sequences, resulting in suboptimal preference modeling for personalized recommendations. In this study, we propose a novel Counterfactual Fine-Tuning (CFT) method to address this issue by explicitly emphasizing the role of behavior sequences when generating recommendations. Specifically, we employ counterfactual reasoning to identify the causal effects of behavior sequences on model output and introduce a task that directly fits the ground-truth labels based on these effects, achieving the goal of explicit emphasis. Additionally, we develop a token-level weighting mechanism to adjust the emphasis strength for different item tokens, reflecting the diminishing influence of behavior sequences from earlier to later tokens during predicting an item. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CFT effectively improves behavior sequence modeling. Our codes are available at https://github.com/itsmeyjt/CFT.

LLM-based LEGO assembly generation requires both semantic grounding and physical feasibility. We identify a data-induced failure mode, PhysHack, in which the assemblies satisfy physical-validity constraints while producing structures that are geometrically misaligned, semantically inconsistent, or poorly calibrated. To address this challenge, we propose a model-based data selection approach that uses only a small fraction of the training data while improving physically grounded LEGO assembly generation. Building on the selected trajectories, we introduce PVPO, a sample-efficient reinforcement learning method that couples physical feasibility with voxel-space geometric rewards. Our results show that physical validity alone is an insufficient proxy for reliable physical reasoning: models can learn to generate valid structures without preserving semantic or geometric fidelity. Experiments across model backbones and test-time scaling settings demonstrate that PVPO improves structural and semantic alignment, physical validity, structural stability, and calibration, while reducing reliance on extensive post-hoc rejection sampling. In particular, results on calibration show that PVPO mitigates PhysHack by making test-time selection more predictive of semantic and structural quality.

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

Counterfactual reasoning is widely recognized as one of the most challenging and intricate aspects of causality in artificial intelligence. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of large language models (LLMs) in counterfactual reasoning. In contrast to previous studies that primarily focus on commonsense causal reasoning, where LLMs often rely on prior knowledge for inference, we specifically assess their ability to perform counterfactual inference using a set of formal rules. To support this evaluation, we introduce a new benchmark dataset, CounterBench, comprising 1K counterfactual reasoning questions. The dataset is designed with varying levels of difficulty, diverse causal graph structures, distinct types of counterfactual questions, and multiple nonsensical name variants. Our experiments demonstrate that counterfactual reasoning poses a significant challenge for LLMs, with most models performing at levels comparable to random guessing. To enhance LLM's counterfactual reasoning ability, we propose a novel reasoning paradigm, CoIn, which guides LLMs through iterative reasoning and backtracking to systematically explore counterfactual solutions. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves LLM performance on counterfactual reasoning tasks and consistently enhances performance across different LLMs.Our dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/CounterBench/CounterBench.

How do multi-turn reasoning systems fail? The expected answer is logical contradiction, in which the system's maintained state becomes unsatisfiable. We show that the dominant mode is instead satisfiable drift, where the internal state stays consistent while the returned answer silently violates prior commitments. We build DRIFT-Bench (Decomposing Reasoning Into Failure Types), a solver-instrumented benchmark of 816 test problems across three constraint domains, and evaluate four methods on it across four open-weight models (8B-120B parameters). MUS-Repair, which feeds minimal unsatisfiable subsets back to the generator, is strongest in every setting (+1.8 to +15.0 pp over the best non-MUS baseline). But the central finding is what repair leaves behind. After structured feedback, models rarely contradict themselves. They forget. Residual errors are 98-100% satisfiable drift across all settings, while contradiction drops to near zero. Reliable multi-turn systems must separately validate that the returned answer respects the maintained state. Code is available at https://github.com/kaons-research/drift-bench.

Procedural planning, which entails decomposing a high-level goal into a sequence of temporally ordered steps, is an important yet intricate task for machines. It involves integrating common-sense knowledge to reason about complex contextualized situations that are often counterfactual, e.g. "scheduling a doctor's appointment without a phone". While current approaches show encouraging results using large language models (LLMs), they are hindered by drawbacks such as costly API calls and reproducibility issues. In this paper, we advocate planning using smaller language models. We present PlaSma, a novel two-pronged approach to endow small language models with procedural knowledge and (counterfactual) planning capabilities. More concretely, we develop symbolic procedural knowledge distillation to enhance the implicit knowledge in small language models and an inference-time algorithm to facilitate more structured and accurate reasoning. In addition, we introduce a novel task, Counterfactual Planning, that requires a revision of a plan to cope with a counterfactual situation. In both the original and counterfactual setting, we show that orders-of-magnitude smaller models (770M-11B parameters) can compete and often surpass their larger teacher models' capabilities.

Video generation models have emerged as a promising paradigm for embodied world simulation. However, both general-domain video generators and robot-specific data fine-tuned models can still produce physically implausible manipulations, including discontinuous motion trajectories and inconsistent robot-object interactions, which limits their reliability as world simulators. Through extensive experiments, we find that such physical instability mainly arises from two factors: deformation of moving objects and implausible spatio-temporal correlations among interacting entities, particularly during contact. Building on this observation, we propose PhysisForcing, a scalable training framework that strengthens physical consistency by focusing supervision on physics-informative regions through joint optimization of pixel-level and semantic-level features. The framework consists of a pixel-level trajectory alignment loss, which supervises DiT features using reference point trajectories, and a semantic-level relational alignment loss, which aligns DiT features with inter-region relations extracted from a frozen video understanding encoder. Extensive experiments on R-Bench, PAI-Bench, and EZS-Bench show that PhysisForcing consistently improves embodied video generation over strong baselines, improving the Wan2.2-I2V-A14B and Cosmos3-Nano base models on R-Bench by 22.3\% and 9.2\% (7.1\% and 3.7\% over vanilla finetuning), with the Cosmos3-Nano variant attaining the best overall score. Beyond generation, as a world model under the WorldArena action-planner protocol it raises the closed-loop success rate from 16.0\% to 24.0\% and further improves downstream policy success, indicating that physically aligned video models yield stronger representations for robotic manipulation.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Accurately predicting conversion rate (CVR) is essential in various recommendation domains such as online advertising systems and e-commerce. These systems utilize user interaction logs, which consist of exposures, clicks, and conversions. CVR prediction models are typically trained solely based on clicked samples, as conversions can only be determined following clicks. However, the sparsity of clicked instances necessitates the collection of a substantial amount of logs for effective model training. Recent works address this issue by devising frameworks that leverage non-clicked samples. While these frameworks aim to reduce biases caused by the discrepancy between clicked and non-clicked samples, they often rely on heuristics. Against this background, we propose a method to counterfactually generate conversion labels for non-clicked samples by using causality as a guiding principle, attempting to answer the question, "Would the user have converted if he or she had clicked the recommended item?" Our approach is named the Entire Space Counterfactual Inference Multi-task Model (ESCIM). We initially train a structural causal model (SCM) of user sequential behaviors and conduct a hypothetical intervention (i.e., click) on non-clicked items to infer counterfactual CVRs. We then introduce several approaches to transform predicted counterfactual CVRs into binary counterfactual conversion labels for the non-clicked samples. Finally, the generated samples are incorporated into the training process. Extensive experiments on public datasets illustrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Online A/B testing further empirically validates the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in real-world scenarios. In addition, we demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed method on latent conversion data, showcasing its robustness and superior generalization capabilities.

Intuitive physics understanding in video diffusion models plays an essential role in building general-purpose physically plausible world simulators, yet accurately evaluating such capacity remains a challenging task due to the difficulty in disentangling physics correctness from visual appearance in generation. To the end, we introduce LikePhys, a training-free method that evaluates intuitive physics in video diffusion models by distinguishing physically valid and impossible videos using the denoising objective as an ELBO-based likelihood surrogate on a curated dataset of valid-invalid pairs. By testing on our constructed benchmark of twelve scenarios spanning over four physics domains, we show that our evaluation metric, Plausibility Preference Error (PPE), demonstrates strong alignment with human preference, outperforming state-of-the-art evaluator baselines. We then systematically benchmark intuitive physics understanding in current video diffusion models. Our study further analyses how model design and inference settings affect intuitive physics understanding and highlights domain-specific capacity variations across physical laws. Empirical results show that, despite current models struggling with complex and chaotic dynamics, there is a clear trend of improvement in physics understanding as model capacity and inference settings scale.

Understanding the physical world requires perceptual models grounded in physical laws rather than mere statistical correlations. However, existing multimodal learning frameworks, focused on vision and language, lack physical consistency and overlook the intrinsic causal relationships among an object's geometry, material, vibration modes, and the sounds it produces. We introduce VibraVerse, a large-scale geometry-acoustics alignment dataset that explicitly bridges the causal chain from 3D geometry -> physical attributes -> modal parameters -> acoustic signals. Each 3D model has explicit physical properties (density, Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio) and volumetric geometry, from which modal eigenfrequencies and eigenvectors are computed for impact sound synthesis under controlled excitations. To establish this coherence, we introduce CLASP, a contrastive learning framework for cross-modal alignment that preserves the causal correspondence between an object's physical structure and its acoustic response. This framework enforces physically consistent alignment across modalities, ensuring that every sample is coherent, traceable to the governing equations, and embedded within a unified representation space spanning shape, image, and sound. Built upon VibraVerse, we define a suite of benchmark tasks for geometry-to-sound prediction, sound-guided shape reconstruction, and cross-modal representation learning. Extensive validations on these tasks demonstrate that models trained on VibraVerse exhibit superior accuracy, interpretability, and generalization across modalities. These results establish VibraVerse as a benchmark for physically consistent and causally interpretable multimodal learning, providing a foundation for sound-guided embodied perception and a deeper understanding of the physical world. The dataset will be open-sourced.

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

The recently developed Sora model [1] has exhibited remarkable capabilities in video generation, sparking intense discussions regarding its ability to simulate real-world phenomena. Despite its growing popularity, there is a lack of established metrics to evaluate its fidelity to real-world physics quantitatively. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark that assesses the quality of the generated videos based on their adherence to real-world physics principles. We employ a method that transforms the generated videos into 3D models, leveraging the premise that the accuracy of 3D reconstruction is heavily contingent on the video quality. From the perspective of 3D reconstruction, we use the fidelity of the geometric constraints satisfied by the constructed 3D models as a proxy to gauge the extent to which the generated videos conform to real-world physics rules. Project page: https://sora-geometrical-consistency.github.io/

Text-to-image generation has reached photorealistic quality, yet state-of-the-art systems remain unreliable at producing scientific diagrams, whose value depends not on appearance but on physical faithfulness: correct force directions, valid coordinate systems, consistent thermodynamic states, and equations matching the depicted scenario. Trained on web imagery with physically shallow captions, generic models produce diagrams that look plausible but are physically wrong, harmful in education and scientific communication. We present Princigram, a physics-faithful scientific-diagram generator, and its data pipeline. Our central advance is Structured Physical Chain-of-Thought (SP-CoT): a per-subdiscipline schema that decomposes a physics diagram into an explicit multi-step reasoning chain across six subdisciplines, from scene identification through force or process analysis to governing laws and synthesis. Unlike free-form chain-of-thought, SP-CoT follows a fixed schema with strict fidelity rules that separate visually grounded facts from physically inferred reasoning and type all mathematics symbolically; it serves both as dense training supervision and, at inference, as a structured "thinking" prompt. With it we curate and structurally annotate 4.3 million physics images, of which 115,037 carry expert-level annotation, and adapt a unified multimodal backbone. We further introduce VeriphyT2IBench, whose questions are derived from each held-out diagram's own structured annotation: each diagram becomes an item-specific bank of binary questions about its objects, forces, and states, so a judge model's score decomposes into named physical facts rather than one holistic number. On the physics subset of GenExam and on VeriphyT2IBench, Princigram shows that explicit physics-structured supervision improves the physical faithfulness of generated scientific diagrams.

We introduce the Continuum Physical Dataset (ContPhy), a novel benchmark for assessing machine physical commonsense. ContPhy complements existing physical reasoning benchmarks by encompassing the inference of diverse physical properties, such as mass and density, across various scenarios and predicting corresponding dynamics. We evaluated a range of AI models and found that they still struggle to achieve satisfactory performance on ContPhy, which shows that the current AI models still lack physical commonsense for the continuum, especially soft-bodies, and illustrates the value of the proposed dataset. We also introduce an oracle model (ContPRO) that marries the particle-based physical dynamic models with the recent large language models, which enjoy the advantages of both models, precise dynamic predictions, and interpretable reasoning. ContPhy aims to spur progress in perception and reasoning within diverse physical settings, narrowing the divide between human and machine intelligence in understanding the physical world. Project page: https://physical-reasoning-project.github.io.

Despite alarm over the reliance of machine learning systems on so-called spurious patterns, the term lacks coherent meaning in standard statistical frameworks. However, the language of causality offers clarity: spurious associations are due to confounding (e.g., a common cause), but not direct or indirect causal effects. In this paper, we focus on natural language processing, introducing methods and resources for training models less sensitive to spurious patterns. Given documents and their initial labels, we task humans with revising each document so that it (i) accords with a counterfactual target label; (ii) retains internal coherence; and (iii) avoids unnecessary changes. Interestingly, on sentiment analysis and natural language inference tasks, classifiers trained on original data fail on their counterfactually-revised counterparts and vice versa. Classifiers trained on combined datasets perform remarkably well, just shy of those specialized to either domain. While classifiers trained on either original or manipulated data alone are sensitive to spurious features (e.g., mentions of genre), models trained on the combined data are less sensitive to this signal. Both datasets are publicly available.

We propose CounterCurate, a framework to comprehensively improve the visio-linguistic compositional reasoning capability for both contrastive and generative multimodal models. In particular, we identify two under-explored critical problems: the neglect of the physically grounded reasoning (counting and position understanding) and the potential of using highly capable text and image generation models for semantic counterfactual fine-tuning. Our work pioneers an approach that addresses these gaps. We first spotlight the near-chance performance of multimodal models like CLIP and LLaVA in physically grounded compositional reasoning. We then apply simple data augmentation using a grounded image generation model, GLIGEN, to generate finetuning data, resulting in significant performance improvements: +33% and +37% for CLIP and LLaVA, respectively, on our newly curated Flickr30k-Positions benchmark. Moreover, we exploit the capabilities of high-performing text generation and image generation models, specifically GPT-4V and DALLE-3, to curate challenging semantic counterfactuals, thereby further enhancing compositional reasoning capabilities on benchmarks such as SugarCrepe, where CounterCurate outperforms GPT-4V.

The impressive performance of recent language models across a wide range of tasks suggests that they possess a degree of abstract reasoning skills. Are these skills general and transferable, or specialized to specific tasks seen during pretraining? To disentangle these effects, we propose an evaluation framework based on "counterfactual" task variants that deviate from the default assumptions underlying standard tasks. Across a suite of 11 tasks, we observe nontrivial performance on the counterfactual variants, but nevertheless find that performance substantially and consistently degrades compared to the default conditions. This suggests that while current LMs may possess abstract task-solving skills to a degree, they often also rely on narrow, non-transferable procedures for task-solving. These results motivate a more careful interpretation of language model performance that teases apart these aspects of behavior.

As Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents are increasingly employed in diverse decision-making problems using reward preferences, it becomes important to ensure that policies learned by these frameworks in mapping observations to a probability distribution of the possible actions are explainable. However, there is little to no work in the systematic understanding of these complex policies in a contrastive manner, i.e., what minimal changes to the policy would improve/worsen its performance to a desired level. In this work, we present COUNTERPOL, the first framework to analyze RL policies using counterfactual explanations in the form of minimal changes to the policy that lead to the desired outcome. We do so by incorporating counterfactuals in supervised learning in RL with the target outcome regulated using desired return. We establish a theoretical connection between Counterpol and widely used trust region-based policy optimization methods in RL. Extensive empirical analysis shows the efficacy of COUNTERPOL in generating explanations for (un)learning skills while keeping close to the original policy. Our results on five different RL environments with diverse state and action spaces demonstrate the utility of counterfactual explanations, paving the way for new frontiers in designing and developing counterfactual policies.

Recent advances in multimodal language models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in vision-language reasoning, especially with the emergence of "thinking with images," which integrates explicit visual steps into the reasoning process. While this paradigm strengthens image-based reasoning, a significant challenge remains: models may arrive at correct answers by relying on irrelevant or spurious regions, driven by prior knowledge or dataset biases. Even when the answer is correct, flawed reasoning indicates that the model has not truly understood the image, highlighting the critical importance of reasoning fidelity in multimodal tasks. To address this issue, we propose DeFacto, a counterfactual reasoning framework that jointly enforces accurate answering and faithful reasoning. A key component of our approach is the design of three complementary training paradigms: (i) positive, (ii) counterfactual, and (iii) random-masking. To enable these paradigms, we develop a pipeline that automatically localizes question-relevant evidence and constructs positive, counterfactual, and random variants, resulting in a dataset of about 100k images. Building on this framework, we train multimodal language models with GRPO-based reinforcement learning, where we design three complementary rewards to guide the model toward accurate answering and evidence-grounded reasoning. Experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate that DeFacto substantially improves both answer accuracy and reasoning faithfulness, establishing a stronger foundation for interpretable multimodal reasoning. The code is available on GitHub and the dataset is released on HuggingFace.

World simulators can provide safe and scalable environments for training Physical AI systems before real-world deployment. Large video generation models are emerging as a promising basis for such simulators because they can generate diverse and realistic visual futures. However, using them as world simulators requires physically faithful video continuations, namely, generated videos that preserve the physical state implied by the conditioning input, and evolve in ways consistent with basic physical principles. We propose PhyWorld, a video generation world model designed to produce temporally coherent and physically faithful scene continuations through two-stage post-training. In the first stage, we improve video-to-video continuation with flow matching fine-tuning, encouraging stable visual attributes and coherent motion dynamics across frames. In the second stage, we align generated dynamics with physical principles using Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) over physics preference pairs, guiding the model toward outputs with higher physical plausibility. To evaluate PhyWorld, we use both standard video-quality benchmarks and a dedicated physical-faithfulness benchmark with per-law scoring. Experiments show that PhyWorld improves video consistency, achieving an average score of 0.769 on VBench compared with 0.756 or below for state-of-the-art baselines. PhyWorld also improves physical plausibility, reaching an average score of 3.09 on our physical-faithfulness benchmark compared with 2.99 for the strongest baseline. These results suggest that post-training large video generation models with continuation and physics-preference signals can make them more effective world simulators for Physical AI.

Spurious correlations in the data, where multiple cues are predictive of the target labels, often lead to a phenomenon known as simplicity bias, where a model relies on erroneous, easy-to-learn cues while ignoring reliable ones. In this work, we propose an ensemble diversification framework exploiting Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) for shortcut bias mitigation. We show that at particular training intervals, DPMs can generate images with novel feature combinations, even when trained on images displaying correlated input features. We leverage this crucial property to generate synthetic counterfactuals to increase model diversity via ensemble disagreement. We show that DPM-guided diversification is sufficient to remove dependence on primary shortcut cues, without a need for additional supervised signals. We further empirically quantify its efficacy on several diversification objectives, and finally show improved generalization and diversification performance on par with prior work that relies on auxiliary data collection.

Recent advances in generative foundational models, often termed "world models," have propelled interest in applying them to critical tasks like robotic planning and autonomous system training. For reliable deployment, these models must exhibit high physical fidelity, accurately simulating real-world dynamics. Existing physics-based video benchmarks, however, suffer from entanglement, where a single test simultaneously evaluates multiple physical laws and concepts, fundamentally limiting their diagnostic capability. We introduce WorldBench, a novel video-based benchmark specifically designed for concept-specific, disentangled evaluation, allowing us to rigorously isolate and assess understanding of a single physical concept or law at a time. To make WorldBench comprehensive, we design benchmarks at two different levels: 1) an evaluation of intuitive physical understanding with concepts such as object permanence or scale/perspective, and 2) an evaluation of low-level physical constants and material properties such as friction coefficients or fluid viscosity. When SOTA video-based world models are evaluated on WorldBench, we find specific patterns of failure in particular physics concepts, with all tested models lacking the physical consistency required to generate reliable real-world interactions. Through its concept-specific evaluation, WorldBench offers a more nuanced and scalable framework for rigorously evaluating the physical reasoning capabilities of video generation and world models, paving the way for more robust and generalizable world-model-driven learning.

A good model for action-effect prediction, named environment model, is important to achieve sample-efficient decision-making policy learning in many domains like robot control, recommender systems, and patients' treatment selection. We can take unlimited trials with such a model to identify the appropriate actions so that the costs of queries in the real world can be saved. It requires the model to handle unseen data correctly, also called counterfactual data. However, standard data fitting techniques do not automatically achieve such generalization ability and commonly result in unreliable models. In this work, we introduce counterfactual-query risk minimization (CQRM) in model learning for generalizing to a counterfactual dataset queried by a specific target policy. Since the target policies can be various and unknown in policy learning, we propose an adversarial CQRM objective in which the model learns on counterfactual data queried by adversarial policies, and finally derive a tractable solution GALILEO. We also discover that adversarial CQRM is closely related to the adversarial model learning, explaining the effectiveness of the latter. We apply GALILEO in synthetic tasks and a real-world application. The results show that GALILEO makes accurate predictions on counterfactual data and thus significantly improves policies in real-world testing.

Fair decisions require ignoring irrelevant, potentially biasing, information. To achieve this, decision-makers need to approximate what decision they would have made had they not known certain facts, such as the gender or race of a job candidate. This counterfactual self-simulation is notoriously hard for humans, leading to biased judgments even by well-meaning actors. Here we show that large language models (LLMs) suffer from similar limitations in their ability to approximate what decisions they would make under counterfactual knowledge in offsetting gender and race biases and overcoming sycophancy. We show that prompting models to ignore or pretend not to know biasing information fails to offset these biases and occasionally backfires. However, unlike humans, LLMs can be given access to a ground-truth model of their own counterfactual cognition -- their own API. We show that this access to the responses of a blinded replica enables fairer decisions, while providing greater transparency to distinguish implicit from intentionally biased behavior.

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

While tool-augmented Large Language Models have significantly improved multi-step reasoning in quantitative STEM tasks, a critical residual failure mode remains: intermediate reasoning steps that are syntactically well-formed, mathematically executable, and unit-consistent, yet contextually ungrounded. Current approaches either rely on formal verifiers that cannot assess semantic intent, or burden Process Reward Models (PRMs) with the dual task of checking both arithmetic and logic. In this paper, we propose a neuro-symbolic framework that cleanly decouples reasoning into two formal dimensions: Symbolic Validity (V) and Semantic Groundedness (G). We guarantee V by construction using a deterministic symbolic verifier acting as a hard filter. To assess G, we train a PRM conditionally on the verifier-accepted manifold. To train this PRM efficiently, we introduce Counterfactual Symbolic Perturbation (CSP), a novel data synthesis strategy that algorithmically generates constraint-preserving hard negatives (steps that perfectly pass the verifier but are logically flawed). At inference, we deploy a verifier-first constrained search that guarantees execution consistency for verifier-covered operations while relying on the PRM solely to rank semantic grounding. By targeting the exact residual error class of strong tool-using LLMs, our method significantly improves reasoning reliability without the sprawling heuristics of prior frameworks.

While recent generative video models have achieved remarkable visual realism and are being explored as world models, true physical simulation requires mastering both space and time. Current models can produce visually smooth kinematics, yet they lack a reliable internal motion pulse to ground these motions in a consistent, real-world time scale. This temporal ambiguity stems from the common practice of indiscriminately training on videos with vastly different real-world speeds, forcing them into standardized frame rates. This leads to what we term chronometric hallucination: generated sequences exhibit ambiguous, unstable, and uncontrollable physical motion speeds. To address this, we propose Visual Chronometer, a predictor that recovers the Physical Frames Per Second (PhyFPS) directly from the visual dynamics of an input video. Trained via controlled temporal resampling, our method estimates the true temporal scale implied by the motion itself, bypassing unreliable metadata. To systematically quantify this issue, we establish two benchmarks, PhyFPS-Bench-Real and PhyFPS-Bench-Gen. Our evaluations reveal a harsh reality: state-of-the-art video generators suffer from severe PhyFPS misalignment and temporal instability. Finally, we demonstrate that applying PhyFPS corrections significantly improves the human-perceived naturalness of AI-generated videos. Our project page is https://xiangbogaobarry.github.io/Visual_Chronometer/.

Vision-language models (VLMs) can achieve high accuracy while still accepting culturally plausible but visually incorrect interpretations. Existing hallucination benchmarks rarely test this failure mode, particularly outside Western contexts and English. We introduce M^2CQA, a culturally grounded multimodal benchmark built from images spanning 17 MENA countries, paired with contrastive true and counterfactual statements in English, Arabic, and its dialects. To isolate hallucination beyond raw accuracy, we propose the CounterFactual Hallucination Rate (CFHR), which measures counterfactual acceptance conditioned on correctly answering the true statement. Evaluating state-of-the-art VLMs under multiple prompting strategies, we find that CFHR rises sharply in Arabic, especially in dialects, even when true-statement accuracy remains high. Moreover, reasoning-first prompting consistently increases counterfactual hallucination, while answering before justifying improves robustness. We make the dataset publicly available for the community (https://huggingface.co/datasets/QCRI/M2CQA)).

Existing methods for the 4D reconstruction of general, non-rigidly deforming objects focus on novel-view synthesis and neglect correspondences. However, time consistency enables advanced downstream tasks like 3D editing, motion analysis, or virtual-asset creation. We propose SceNeRFlow to reconstruct a general, non-rigid scene in a time-consistent manner. Our dynamic-NeRF method takes multi-view RGB videos and background images from static cameras with known camera parameters as input. It then reconstructs the deformations of an estimated canonical model of the geometry and appearance in an online fashion. Since this canonical model is time-invariant, we obtain correspondences even for long-term, long-range motions. We employ neural scene representations to parametrize the components of our method. Like prior dynamic-NeRF methods, we use a backwards deformation model. We find non-trivial adaptations of this model necessary to handle larger motions: We decompose the deformations into a strongly regularized coarse component and a weakly regularized fine component, where the coarse component also extends the deformation field into the space surrounding the object, which enables tracking over time. We show experimentally that, unlike prior work that only handles small motion, our method enables the reconstruction of studio-scale motions.

Generative sequence models are often trained to plan motion in physical domains, from robotics to mechanical simulations. When constructing a dataset to train such a model, engineers may curate demonstrations to specify how trajectories should be distributed over a physical quantity like travel distance or mechanical energy. For example, a roboticist building a maze navigation agent might choose demonstrations whose travel distances cover a fixed range uniformly, hoping to constrain the agent's expected power usage. We find that standard deep learning can violate this intent: each generated trajectory can seem plausible on its own, but the aggregate distribution over the physical quantity is wrong. We call this failure physical misgeneralization, and develop an account of its mechanism. Using controlled synthetic tasks, we show that physical misgeneralization arises when local errors typical of the model class propagate through the physical measurement to shift the recovered distribution. We estimate these errors with a data deviation kernel, and we use it to predict which physical quantities gain or lose mass in both our synthetic and more applied maze navigation and double-pendulum motion tasks. Finally, our mechanistic interpretation helps identify which mitigation strategies are structurally promising, and we use it to propose a kernel-informed intervention.

The robustness of machine learning models can be compromised by spurious correlations between non-causal features in the input data and target labels. A common way to test for such correlations is to train on data where the label is strongly tied to some non-causal cue, then evaluate on examples where that tie no longer holds. This idea is well established for classification tasks, but for semantic segmentation the specific failure modes are not well understood. We show that a model may achieve reasonable overlap while assigning the wrong semantic label, swapping one plausible foreground class for another, even when object boundaries are largely correct. We focus on this semantic label-flip behaviour and quantify it with a simple diagnostic (Flip) that counts how often ground truth foreground pixels are assigned the wrong foreground identity while remaining predicted as foreground. In a setting where category and scene are correlated during training, increasing the correlation consistently widens the gap between common and rare test conditions and increases these within-object label swaps on counterfactual groups. Overall, our results motivate assessing segmentation robustness under distribution shift beyond overlap by decomposing foreground errors into correct pixels, flipped-identity pixels, and missed-to-background pixels. We also propose an entropy-based, ground truth label-free `flip-risk' score, which is computed from foreground identity uncertainty, and show that it can flag flip-prone cases at inference time. Code is available at https://github.com/acharaakshit/label-flips.

Long-horizon failure in world models is conventionally attributed to compounding error, a generic framing that does not distinguish what kind of error compounds. We propose a kinematic-vs-dynamic reframing: world models tend to imagine kinematically rather than dynamically. We operationalize this as the imagined Kinematic-Consistency Error, a per-step diagnostic that measures how far a rollout departs from a closed-form kinematic null, paired with a perturbation protocol that tests whether iKCE responds when physical conditions cross a regime boundary. We instantiate the diagnostic on a released DreamerV3 checkpoint trained on DMC walker-walk, where imagined iKCE runs roughly two orders of magnitude above that of matched real-physics rollouts. Across a friction sweep that crosses the gait-collapse boundary, the model's iKCE stays statistically flat even as the trained policy's reward collapses through the same range, providing the kinematic-not-dynamic signature. The diagnostic distinguishes kinematic from dynamic imagination at horizons longer than the embodiment's gait period.

Recent model editing techniques promise to mitigate the problem of memorizing false or outdated associations during LLM training. However, we show that these techniques can introduce large unwanted side effects which are not detected by existing specificity benchmarks. We extend the existing CounterFact benchmark to include a dynamic component and dub our benchmark CounterFact+. Additionally, we extend the metrics used for measuring specificity by a principled KL divergence-based metric. We use this improved benchmark to evaluate recent model editing techniques and find that they suffer from low specificity. Our findings highlight the need for improved specificity benchmarks that identify and prevent unwanted side effects.