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Jul 30

RAID: A Dataset for Testing the Adversarial Robustness of AI-Generated Image Detectors

AI-generated images have reached a quality level at which humans are incapable of reliably distinguishing them from real images. To counteract the inherent risk of fraud and disinformation, the detection of AI-generated images is a pressing challenge and an active research topic. While many of the presented methods claim to achieve high detection accuracy, they are usually evaluated under idealized conditions. In particular, the adversarial robustness is often neglected, potentially due to a lack of awareness or the substantial effort required to conduct a comprehensive robustness analysis. In this work, we tackle this problem by providing a simpler means to assess the robustness of AI-generated image detectors. We present RAID (Robust evaluation of AI-generated image Detectors), a dataset of 72k diverse and highly transferable adversarial examples. The dataset is created by running attacks against an ensemble of seven state-of-the-art detectors and images generated by four different text-to-image models. Extensive experiments show that our methodology generates adversarial images that transfer with a high success rate to unseen detectors, which can be used to quickly provide an approximate yet still reliable estimate of a detector's adversarial robustness. Our findings indicate that current state-of-the-art AI-generated image detectors can be easily deceived by adversarial examples, highlighting the critical need for the development of more robust methods. We release our dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/aimagelab/RAID and evaluation code at https://github.com/pralab/RAID.

  • 11 authors
·
Jun 4, 2025

Large Language Models can be Guided to Evade AI-Generated Text Detection

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performance in various tasks and have been extensively utilized by the public. However, the increasing concerns regarding the misuse of LLMs, such as plagiarism and spamming, have led to the development of multiple detectors, including fine-tuned classifiers and statistical methods. In this study, we equip LLMs with prompts, rather than relying on an external paraphraser, to evaluate the vulnerability of these detectors. We propose a novel Substitution-based In-Context example Optimization method (SICO) to automatically construct prompts for evading the detectors. SICO is cost-efficient as it requires only 40 human-written examples and a limited number of LLM inferences to generate a prompt. Moreover, once a task-specific prompt has been constructed, it can be universally used against a wide range of detectors. Extensive experiments across three real-world tasks demonstrate that SICO significantly outperforms the paraphraser baselines and enables GPT-3.5 to successfully evade six detectors, decreasing their AUC by 0.5 on average. Furthermore, a comprehensive human evaluation show that the SICO-generated text achieves human-level readability and task completion rates, while preserving high imperceptibility. Finally, we propose an ensemble approach to enhance the robustness of detectors against SICO attack. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/ColinLu50/Evade-GPT-Detector.

  • 6 authors
·
May 18, 2023

StealthRL: Reinforcement Learning Paraphrase Attacks for Multi-Detector Evasion of AI-Text Detectors

AI-text detectors face a critical robustness challenge: adversarial paraphrasing attacks that preserve semantics while evading detection. We introduce StealthRL, a reinforcement learning framework that stress-tests detector robustness under realistic adversarial conditions. StealthRL trains a paraphrase policy against a multi-detector ensemble using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with LoRA adapters on Qwen3-4B, optimizing a composite reward that balances detector evasion with semantic preservation. We evaluate six attack settings (M0-M5) against three detector families (RoBERTa, FastDetectGPT, and Binoculars) at the security-relevant 1% false positive rate operating point. StealthRL achieves near-zero detection (0.001 mean TPR@1%FPR), reduces mean AUROC from 0.74 to 0.27, and attains a 99.9% attack success rate. Critically, attacks transfer to a held-out detector family not seen during training, revealing shared architectural vulnerabilities rather than detector-specific brittleness. We additionally conduct LLM-based quality evaluation via Likert scoring, analyze detector score distributions to explain why evasion succeeds, and provide per-detector AUROC with bootstrap confidence intervals. Our results expose significant robustness gaps in current AI-text detection and establish StealthRL as a principled adversarial evaluation protocol. Code and evaluation pipeline are publicly available at https://github.com/suraj-ranganath/StealthRL.

SpaNN: Detecting Multiple Adversarial Patches on CNNs by Spanning Saliency Thresholds

State-of-the-art convolutional neural network models for object detection and image classification are vulnerable to physically realizable adversarial perturbations, such as patch attacks. Existing defenses have focused, implicitly or explicitly, on single-patch attacks, leaving their sensitivity to the number of patches as an open question or rendering them computationally infeasible or inefficient against attacks consisting of multiple patches in the worst cases. In this work, we propose SpaNN, an attack detector whose computational complexity is independent of the expected number of adversarial patches. The key novelty of the proposed detector is that it builds an ensemble of binarized feature maps by applying a set of saliency thresholds to the neural activations of the first convolutional layer of the victim model. It then performs clustering on the ensemble and uses the cluster features as the input to a classifier for attack detection. Contrary to existing detectors, SpaNN does not rely on a fixed saliency threshold for identifying adversarial regions, which makes it robust against white box adversarial attacks. We evaluate SpaNN on four widely used data sets for object detection and classification, and our results show that SpaNN outperforms state-of-the-art defenses by up to 11 and 27 percentage points in the case of object detection and the case of image classification, respectively. Our code is available at https://github.com/gerkbyrd/SpaNN.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 22, 2025

How Far Can You Get Without a GPU? A Systematic Benchmark of Lightweight Hallucination Detection Across Question Answering, Dialogue, and Summarisation

Hallucination detection has become a pressing requirement for trustworthy AI deployment at scale. The most accurate detection methods depend on GPU-intensive inference, proprietary API calls, or white-box access to the generating model. This puts them out of reach for resource-constrained researchers and practitioners. In this paper, we explore a practical alternative: how well can hallucination detection perform using only lightweight, CPU-feasible methods built on publicly available models? We systematically benchmark five such methods: ROUGE-L, semantic similarity, BERTScore, a Natural Language Inference (NLI) detector based on a FEVER-trained DeBERTa model, and a score-level ensemble of similarity and NLI. We evaluate them across all three tasks of the HaluEval benchmark: question answering (QA), dialogue, and summarisation. We calibrate each method on a held-out validation split and evaluate it on 2,000 test instances per task. We find that no single method dominates and performance is highly task-dependent. The ensemble performs best on QA (F1 = 0.792, AUC-ROC = 0.873), the NLI detector leads on dialogue (AUC-ROC = 0.713), and all five methods degrade to near-random performance on summarisation (AUC-ROC between 0.469 and 0.574). This task-dependence and the systematic failure on summarisation map the practical frontier of GPU-free hallucination detection. They give practical guidance for method selection under computational constraints. All experiments run on a standard laptop CPU using public models.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 28

MoCaE: Mixture of Calibrated Experts Significantly Improves Object Detection

Combining the strengths of many existing predictors to obtain a Mixture of Experts which is superior to its individual components is an effective way to improve the performance without having to develop new architectures or train a model from scratch. However, surprisingly, we find that naïvely combining expert object detectors in a similar way to Deep Ensembles, can often lead to degraded performance. We identify that the primary cause of this issue is that the predictions of the experts do not match their performance, a term referred to as miscalibration. Consequently, the most confident detector dominates the final predictions, preventing the mixture from leveraging all the predictions from the experts appropriately. To address this, when constructing the Mixture of Experts, we propose to combine their predictions in a manner which reflects the individual performance of the experts; an objective we achieve by first calibrating the predictions before filtering and refining them. We term this approach the Mixture of Calibrated Experts and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive experiments on 5 different detection tasks using a variety of detectors, showing that it: (i) improves object detectors on COCO and instance segmentation methods on LVIS by up to sim 2.5 AP; (ii) reaches state-of-the-art on COCO test-dev with 65.1 AP and on DOTA with 82.62 AP_{50}; (iii) outperforms single models consistently on recent detection tasks such as Open Vocabulary Object Detection.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 31, 2024

GroupEnsemble: Efficient Uncertainty Estimation for DETR-based Object Detection

Detection Transformer (DETR) and its variants show strong performance on object detection, a key task for autonomous systems. However, a critical limitation of these models is that their confidence scores only reflect semantic uncertainty, failing to capture the equally important spatial uncertainty. This results in an incomplete assessment of the detection reliability. On the other hand, Deep Ensembles can tackle this by providing high-quality spatial uncertainty estimates. However, their immense memory consumption makes them impractical for real-world applications. A cheaper alternative, Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, suffers from high latency due to the need of multiple forward passes during inference to estimate uncertainty. To address these limitations, we introduce GroupEnsemble, an efficient and effective uncertainty estimation method for DETR-like models. GroupEnsemble simultaneously predicts multiple individual detection sets by feeding additional diverse groups of object queries to the transformer decoder during inference. Each query group is transformed by the shared decoder in isolation and predicts a complete detection set for the same input. An attention mask is applied to the decoder to prevent inter-group query interactions, ensuring each group detects independently to achieve reliable ensemble-based uncertainty estimation. By leveraging the decoder's inherent parallelism, GroupEnsemble efficiently estimates uncertainty in a single forward pass without sequential repetition. We validated our method under autonomous driving scenes and common daily scenes using the Cityscapes and COCO datasets, respectively. The results show that a hybrid approach combining MC-Dropout and GroupEnsemble outperforms Deep Ensembles on several metrics at a fraction of the cost. The code is available at https://github.com/yutongy98/GroupEnsemble.

One-Shot Neural Ensemble Architecture Search by Diversity-Guided Search Space Shrinking

Despite remarkable progress achieved, most neural architecture search (NAS) methods focus on searching for one single accurate and robust architecture. To further build models with better generalization capability and performance, model ensemble is usually adopted and performs better than stand-alone models. Inspired by the merits of model ensemble, we propose to search for multiple diverse models simultaneously as an alternative way to find powerful models. Searching for ensembles is non-trivial and has two key challenges: enlarged search space and potentially more complexity for the searched model. In this paper, we propose a one-shot neural ensemble architecture search (NEAS) solution that addresses the two challenges. For the first challenge, we introduce a novel diversity-based metric to guide search space shrinking, considering both the potentiality and diversity of candidate operators. For the second challenge, we enable a new search dimension to learn layer sharing among different models for efficiency purposes. The experiments on ImageNet clearly demonstrate that our solution can improve the supernet's capacity of ranking ensemble architectures, and further lead to better search results. The discovered architectures achieve superior performance compared with state-of-the-arts such as MobileNetV3 and EfficientNet families under aligned settings. Moreover, we evaluate the generalization ability and robustness of our searched architecture on the COCO detection benchmark and achieve a 3.1% improvement on AP compared with MobileNetV3. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/researchmm/NEAS.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 1, 2021

Window-Based Early-Exit Cascades for Uncertainty Estimation: When Deep Ensembles are More Efficient than Single Models

Deep Ensembles are a simple, reliable, and effective method of improving both the predictive performance and uncertainty estimates of deep learning approaches. However, they are widely criticised as being computationally expensive, due to the need to deploy multiple independent models. Recent work has challenged this view, showing that for predictive accuracy, ensembles can be more computationally efficient (at inference) than scaling single models within an architecture family. This is achieved by cascading ensemble members via an early-exit approach. In this work, we investigate extending these efficiency gains to tasks related to uncertainty estimation. As many such tasks, e.g. selective classification, are binary classification, our key novel insight is to only pass samples within a window close to the binary decision boundary to later cascade stages. Experiments on ImageNet-scale data across a number of network architectures and uncertainty tasks show that the proposed window-based early-exit approach is able to achieve a superior uncertainty-computation trade-off compared to scaling single models. For example, a cascaded EfficientNet-B2 ensemble is able to achieve similar coverage at 5% risk as a single EfficientNet-B4 with <30% the number of MACs. We also find that cascades/ensembles give more reliable improvements on OOD data vs scaling models up. Code for this work is available at: https://github.com/Guoxoug/window-early-exit.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 14, 2023

A Closer Look at Cross-Domain Few-Shot Object Detection: Fine-Tuning Matters and Parallel Decoder Helps

Few-shot object detection (FSOD) is challenging due to unstable optimization and limited generalization arising from the scarcity of training samples. To address these issues, we propose a hybrid ensemble decoder that enhances generalization during fine-tuning. Inspired by ensemble learning, the decoder comprises a shared hierarchical layer followed by multiple parallel decoder branches, where each branch employs denoising queries either inherited from the shared layer or newly initialized to encourage prediction diversity. This design fully exploits pretrained weights without introducing additional parameters, and the resulting diverse predictions can be effectively ensembled to improve generalization. We further leverage a unified progressive fine-tuning framework with a plateau-aware learning rate schedule, which stabilizes optimization and achieves strong few-shot adaptation without complex data augmentations or extensive hyperparameter tuning. Extensive experiments on CD-FSOD, ODinW-13, and RF100-VL validate the effectiveness of our approach. Notably, on RF100-VL, which includes 100 datasets across diverse domains, our method achieves an average performance of 41.9 in the 10-shot setting, significantly outperforming the recent approach SAM3, which obtains 35.7. We further construct a mixed-domain test set from CD-FSOD to evaluate robustness to out-of-distribution (OOD) samples, showing that our proposed modules lead to clear improvement gains. These results highlight the effectiveness, generalization, and robustness of the proposed method. Code is available at: https://github.com/Intellindust-AI-Lab/FT-FSOD.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 29

An Ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks for Exoplanetary Atmospheric Retrieval

Machine learning is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using machine learning algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally-expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new machine learning model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks that yields more accurate inferences than the random forest for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use Bayesian neural networks for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for Bayesian neural networks that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing machine learning models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

  • 10 authors
·
May 25, 2019

Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part II, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7,424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4sigma away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

  • 15 authors
·
Aug 2, 2024

DetectZoo: A Unified Toolkit for AI-Generated Content Detection Across Text, Audio, and Image Modalities

The growing popularity and capacity of generative models have eroded the distinction between human and machine-generated content, motivating a growing body of work on detection across text, images, and audio. Most available detectors are either commercial software or, if open-source, come with incompatible codebases with bespoke preprocessing, evaluation protocols, and evaluation metrics, which make their adoption, fair comparison, and reproduction quite difficult. To address this critical gap, we introduce DetectZoo, a first-of-its-kind, extensible toolkit designed to provide a unified interface for AI-generated content detection across text, audio, and image modalities. DetectZoo standardizes the complete empirical pipeline, from data ingestion and preprocessing to model assessment, offering researchers a cohesive framework to benchmark state-of-the-art detectors systematically. By integrating diverse public datasets and baseline detection algorithms under a single, unified API, our toolkit facilitates rigorous and reproducible evaluation. DetectZoo provides reference implementations of 61 detectors, native loaders for 22 benchmark datasets, and a standardized evaluation pipeline that reports multiple metrics through a common interface. Each detector is self-contained yet accessible through the same interface, automatically caches pretrained weights, and reproduces the original published results. DetectZoo lowers the barrier to entry for multi-modal AI forensics, enabling researchers to identify performance gaps across domains and accelerating the development of robust, generalizable detection techniques. The open-source repository and comprehensive documentation are publicly available at https://github.com/sadjadeb/DetectZoo, and the package can be installed via pip install detectzoo.

  • 11 authors
·
Jun 1

Pathologies of Predictive Diversity in Deep Ensembles

Classic results establish that encouraging predictive diversity improves performance in ensembles of low-capacity models, e.g. through bagging or boosting. Here we demonstrate that these intuitions do not apply to high-capacity neural network ensembles (deep ensembles), and in fact the opposite is often true. In a large scale study of nearly 600 neural network classification ensembles, we examine a variety of interventions that trade off component model performance for predictive diversity. While such interventions can improve the performance of small neural network ensembles (in line with standard intuitions), they harm the performance of the large neural network ensembles most often used in practice. Surprisingly, we also find that discouraging predictive diversity is often benign in large-network ensembles, fully inverting standard intuitions. Even when diversity-promoting interventions do not sacrifice component model performance (e.g. using heterogeneous architectures and training paradigms), we observe an opportunity cost associated with pursuing increased predictive diversity. Examining over 1000 ensembles, we observe that the performance benefits of diverse architectures/training procedures are easily dwarfed by the benefits of simply using higher-capacity models, despite the fact that such higher capacity models often yield significantly less predictive diversity. Overall, our findings demonstrate that standard intuitions around predictive diversity, originally developed for low-capacity ensembles, do not directly apply to modern high-capacity deep ensembles. This work clarifies fundamental challenges to the goal of improving deep ensembles by making them more diverse, while suggesting an alternative path: simply forming ensembles from ever more powerful (and less diverse) component models.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 1, 2023

Adaptive Ensemble Learning: Boosting Model Performance through Intelligent Feature Fusion in Deep Neural Networks

In this paper, we present an Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework that aims to boost the performance of deep neural networks by intelligently fusing features through ensemble learning techniques. The proposed framework integrates ensemble learning strategies with deep learning architectures to create a more robust and adaptable model capable of handling complex tasks across various domains. By leveraging intelligent feature fusion methods, the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework generates more discriminative and effective feature representations, leading to improved model performance and generalization capabilities. We conducted extensive experiments and evaluations on several benchmark datasets, including image classification, object detection, natural language processing, and graph-based learning tasks. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently outperforms baseline models and traditional feature fusion techniques, highlighting its effectiveness in enhancing deep learning models' performance. Furthermore, we provide insights into the impact of intelligent feature fusion on model performance and discuss the potential applications of the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework in real-world scenarios. The paper also explores the design and implementation of adaptive ensemble models, ensemble training strategies, and meta-learning techniques, which contribute to the framework's versatility and adaptability. In conclusion, the Adaptive Ensemble Learning framework represents a significant advancement in the field of feature fusion and ensemble learning for deep neural networks, with the potential to transform a wide range of applications across multiple domains.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 4, 2023

Spurious Feature Diversification Improves Out-of-distribution Generalization

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 29, 2023

COOkeD: Ensemble-based OOD detection in the era of zero-shot CLIP

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is an important building block in trustworthy image recognition systems as unknown classes may arise at test-time. OOD detection methods typically revolve around a single classifier, leading to a split in the research field between the classical supervised setting (e.g. ResNet18 classifier trained on CIFAR100) vs. the zero-shot setting (class names fed as prompts to CLIP). In both cases, an overarching challenge is that the OOD detection performance is implicitly constrained by the classifier's capabilities on in-distribution (ID) data. In this work, we show that given a little open-mindedness from both ends, remarkable OOD detection can be achieved by instead creating a heterogeneous ensemble - COOkeD combines the predictions of a closed-world classifier trained end-to-end on a specific dataset, a zero-shot CLIP classifier, and a linear probe classifier trained on CLIP image features. While bulky at first sight, this approach is modular, post-hoc and leverages the availability of pre-trained VLMs, thus introduces little overhead compared to training a single standard classifier. We evaluate COOkeD on popular CIFAR100 and ImageNet benchmarks, but also consider more challenging, realistic settings ranging from training-time label noise, to test-time covariate shift, to zero-shot shift which has been previously overlooked. Despite its simplicity, COOkeD achieves state-of-the-art performance and greater robustness compared to both classical and CLIP-based OOD detection methods. Code is available at https://github.com/glhr/COOkeD

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 30, 2025

MADE-for-ASD: A Multi-Atlas Deep Ensemble Network for Diagnosing Autism Spectrum Disorder

In response to the global need for efficient early diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), this paper bridges the gap between traditional, time-consuming diagnostic methods and potential automated solutions. We propose a multi-atlas deep ensemble network, MADE-for-ASD, that integrates multiple atlases of the brain's functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data through a weighted deep ensemble network. Our approach integrates demographic information into the prediction workflow, which enhances ASD diagnosis performance and offers a more holistic perspective on patient profiling. We experiment with the well-known publicly available ABIDE (Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange) I dataset, consisting of resting state fMRI data from 17 different laboratories around the globe. Our proposed system achieves 75.20% accuracy on the entire dataset and 96.40% on a specific subset - both surpassing reported ASD diagnosis accuracy in ABIDE I fMRI studies. Specifically, our model improves by 4.4 percentage points over prior works on the same amount of data. The model exhibits a sensitivity of 82.90% and a specificity of 69.70% on the entire dataset, and 91.00% and 99.50%, respectively, on the specific subset. We leverage the F-score to pinpoint the top 10 ROI in ASD diagnosis, such as precuneus and anterior cingulate/ventromedial. The proposed system can potentially pave the way for more cost-effective, efficient and scalable strategies in ASD diagnosis. Codes and evaluations are publicly available at https://github.com/hasan-rakibul/MADE-for-ASD.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 9, 2024

Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

  • 16 authors
·
Aug 6, 2024

The Mini-SiTian Array: real-bogus classification using deep learning

The Mini-SiTian (MST) project is a pathfinder for China's next-generation large-scale time-domain survey, SiTian, aimed at discovering variable stars, transients, and explosive events. MST generates hundreds of thousands of transient alerts every night, approximately 99\% of which are false alarms, posing a significant challenge to its scientific goals. To mitigate the impact of false positives, we propose a deep learning-based solution and systematically evaluate thirteen convolutional neural networks. The results show that ResNet achieves exceptional specificity (99.70\%), EfficientNet achieves the highest recall rate (98.68\%), and DenseNet provides balanced performance with a recall rate of 94.55\% and specificity of 98.66\%. Leveraging these complementary strengths, we developed a bagging-based ensemble classifier that integrates ResNet18, DenseNet121, and EfficientNet\_B0 using a soft voting strategy. This classifier achieved the best AUC value (0.9961) among all models, with a recall rate of 95.37\% and specificity of 99.25\%. It has now been successfully deployed in the MST real-time data processing pipeline. Validation using 5,000 practically processed samples with a classification threshold of 0.798 showed that the classifier achieved 88.31\% accuracy, 91.89\% recall rate, and 99.82\% specificity, confirming its effectiveness and robustness under real application conditions.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 2, 2025

Ensemble One-dimensional Convolution Neural Networks for Skeleton-based Action Recognition

In this paper, we proposed a effective but extensible residual one-dimensional convolution neural network as base network, based on the this network, we proposed four subnets to explore the features of skeleton sequences from each aspect. Given a skeleton sequences, the spatial information are encoded into the skeleton joints coordinate in a frame and the temporal information are present by multiple frames. Limited by the skeleton sequence representations, two-dimensional convolution neural network cannot be used directly, we chose one-dimensional convolution layer as the basic layer. Each sub network could extract discriminative features from different aspects. Our first subnet is a two-stream network which could explore both temporal and spatial information. The second is a body-parted network, which could gain micro spatial features and macro temporal features. The third one is an attention network, the main contribution of which is to focus the key frames and feature channels which high related with the action classes in a skeleton sequence. One frame-difference network, as the last subnet, mainly processes the joints changes between the consecutive frames. Four subnets ensemble together by late fusion, the key problem of ensemble method is each subnet should have a certain performance and between the subnets, there are diversity existing. Each subnet shares a wellperformance basenet and differences between subnets guaranteed the diversity. Experimental results show that the ensemble network gets a state-of-the-art performance on three widely used datasets.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 8, 2018

SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 24, 2023

Decoding Human Activities: Analyzing Wearable Accelerometer and Gyroscope Data for Activity Recognition

A person's movement or relative positioning effectively generates raw electrical signals that can be read by computing machines to apply various manipulative techniques for the classification of different human activities. In this paper, a stratified multi-structural approach based on a Residual network ensembled with Residual MobileNet is proposed, termed as FusionActNet. The proposed method involves using carefully designed Residual blocks for classifying the static and dynamic activities separately because they have clear and distinct characteristics that set them apart. These networks are trained independently, resulting in two specialized and highly accurate models. These models excel at recognizing activities within a specific superclass by taking advantage of the unique algorithmic benefits of architectural adjustments. Afterward, these two ResNets are passed through a weighted ensemble-based Residual MobileNet. Subsequently, this ensemble proficiently discriminates between a specific static and a specific dynamic activity, which were previously identified based on their distinct feature characteristics in the earlier stage. The proposed model is evaluated using two publicly accessible datasets; namely, UCI HAR and Motion-Sense. Therein, it successfully handled the highly confusing cases of data overlap. Therefore, the proposed approach achieves a state-of-the-art accuracy of 96.71% and 95.35% in the UCI HAR and Motion-Sense datasets respectively.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 3, 2023

Harnessing Consistency for Robust Test-Time LLM Ensemble

Different large language models (LLMs) exhibit diverse strengths and weaknesses, and LLM ensemble serves as a promising approach to integrate their complementary capabilities. Despite substantial progress in improving ensemble quality, limited attention has been paid to the robustness of ensembles against potential erroneous signals, which often arise from heterogeneous tokenization schemes and varying model expertise. Our analysis shows that ensemble failures typically arise from both the token level and the model level: the former reflects severe disagreement in token predictions, while the latter involves low confidence and pronounced disparities among models. In light of this, we propose CoRE, a plug-and-play technique that harnesses model consistency for robust LLM ensemble, which can be seamlessly integrated with diverse ensemble methods. Token-level consistency captures fine-grained disagreements by applying a low-pass filter to downweight uncertain tokens with high inconsistency, often due to token misalignment, thereby improving robustness at a granular level. Model-level consistency models global agreement by promoting model outputs with high self-confidence and minimal divergence from others, enhancing robustness at a coarser level. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks, model combinations, and ensemble strategies demonstrate that CoRE consistently improves ensemble performance and robustness.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 12, 2025

STARSS22: A dataset of spatial recordings of real scenes with spatiotemporal annotations of sound events

This report presents the Sony-TAu Realistic Spatial Soundscapes 2022 (STARS22) dataset for sound event localization and detection, comprised of spatial recordings of real scenes collected in various interiors of two different sites. The dataset is captured with a high resolution spherical microphone array and delivered in two 4-channel formats, first-order Ambisonics and tetrahedral microphone array. Sound events in the dataset belonging to 13 target sound classes are annotated both temporally and spatially through a combination of human annotation and optical tracking. The dataset serves as the development and evaluation dataset for the Task 3 of the DCASE2022 Challenge on Sound Event Localization and Detection and introduces significant new challenges for the task compared to the previous iterations, which were based on synthetic spatialized sound scene recordings. Dataset specifications are detailed including recording and annotation process, target classes and their presence, and details on the development and evaluation splits. Additionally, the report presents the baseline system that accompanies the dataset in the challenge with emphasis on the differences with the baseline of the previous iterations; namely, introduction of the multi-ACCDOA representation to handle multiple simultaneous occurences of events of the same class, and support for additional improved input features for the microphone array format. Results of the baseline indicate that with a suitable training strategy a reasonable detection and localization performance can be achieved on real sound scene recordings. The dataset is available in https://zenodo.org/record/6387880.

  • 10 authors
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Jun 4, 2022

Uncertainty Quantification for Language Models: A Suite of Black-Box, White-Box, LLM Judge, and Ensemble Scorers

Hallucinations are a persistent problem with Large Language Models (LLMs). As these models become increasingly used in high-stakes domains, such as healthcare and finance, the need for effective hallucination detection is crucial. To this end, we propose a versatile framework for zero-resource hallucination detection that practitioners can apply to real-world use cases. To achieve this, we adapt a variety of existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques, including black-box UQ, white-box UQ, and LLM-as-a-Judge, transforming them as necessary into standardized response-level confidence scores ranging from 0 to 1. To enhance flexibility, we introduce a tunable ensemble approach that incorporates any combination of the individual confidence scores. This approach enables practitioners to optimize the ensemble for a specific use case for improved performance. To streamline implementation, the full suite of scorers is offered in this paper's companion Python toolkit, UQLM. To evaluate the performance of the various scorers, we conduct an extensive set of experiments using several LLM question-answering benchmarks. We find that our tunable ensemble typically surpasses its individual components and outperforms existing hallucination detection methods. Our results demonstrate the benefits of customized hallucination detection strategies for improving the accuracy and reliability of LLMs.

  • 2 authors
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Apr 27, 2025

Bayesian Detector Combination for Object Detection with Crowdsourced Annotations

Acquiring fine-grained object detection annotations in unconstrained images is time-consuming, expensive, and prone to noise, especially in crowdsourcing scenarios. Most prior object detection methods assume accurate annotations; A few recent works have studied object detection with noisy crowdsourced annotations, with evaluation on distinct synthetic crowdsourced datasets of varying setups under artificial assumptions. To address these algorithmic limitations and evaluation inconsistency, we first propose a novel Bayesian Detector Combination (BDC) framework to more effectively train object detectors with noisy crowdsourced annotations, with the unique ability of automatically inferring the annotators' label qualities. Unlike previous approaches, BDC is model-agnostic, requires no prior knowledge of the annotators' skill level, and seamlessly integrates with existing object detection models. Due to the scarcity of real-world crowdsourced datasets, we introduce large synthetic datasets by simulating varying crowdsourcing scenarios. This allows consistent evaluation of different models at scale. Extensive experiments on both real and synthetic crowdsourced datasets show that BDC outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating its superiority in leveraging crowdsourced data for object detection. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/zhiqin1998/bdc.

  • 5 authors
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Jul 10, 2024

DVERGE: Diversifying Vulnerabilities for Enhanced Robust Generation of Ensembles

Recent research finds CNN models for image classification demonstrate overlapped adversarial vulnerabilities: adversarial attacks can mislead CNN models with small perturbations, which can effectively transfer between different models trained on the same dataset. Adversarial training, as a general robustness improvement technique, eliminates the vulnerability in a single model by forcing it to learn robust features. The process is hard, often requires models with large capacity, and suffers from significant loss on clean data accuracy. Alternatively, ensemble methods are proposed to induce sub-models with diverse outputs against a transfer adversarial example, making the ensemble robust against transfer attacks even if each sub-model is individually non-robust. Only small clean accuracy drop is observed in the process. However, previous ensemble training methods are not efficacious in inducing such diversity and thus ineffective on reaching robust ensemble. We propose DVERGE, which isolates the adversarial vulnerability in each sub-model by distilling non-robust features, and diversifies the adversarial vulnerability to induce diverse outputs against a transfer attack. The novel diversity metric and training procedure enables DVERGE to achieve higher robustness against transfer attacks comparing to previous ensemble methods, and enables the improved robustness when more sub-models are added to the ensemble. The code of this work is available at https://github.com/zjysteven/DVERGE

  • 9 authors
·
Sep 30, 2020

Run-Off Election: Improved Provable Defense against Data Poisoning Attacks

In data poisoning attacks, an adversary tries to change a model's prediction by adding, modifying, or removing samples in the training data. Recently, ensemble-based approaches for obtaining provable defenses against data poisoning have been proposed where predictions are done by taking a majority vote across multiple base models. In this work, we show that merely considering the majority vote in ensemble defenses is wasteful as it does not effectively utilize available information in the logits layers of the base models. Instead, we propose Run-Off Election (ROE), a novel aggregation method based on a two-round election across the base models: In the first round, models vote for their preferred class and then a second, Run-Off election is held between the top two classes in the first round. Based on this approach, we propose DPA+ROE and FA+ROE defense methods based on Deep Partition Aggregation (DPA) and Finite Aggregation (FA) approaches from prior work. We evaluate our methods on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and GTSRB and obtain improvements in certified accuracy by up to 3%-4%. Also, by applying ROE on a boosted version of DPA, we gain improvements around 12%-27% comparing to the current state-of-the-art, establishing a new state-of-the-art in (pointwise) certified robustness against data poisoning. In many cases, our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, even when using 32 times less computational power.

  • 4 authors
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Feb 4, 2023

Recognizing Extended Spatiotemporal Expressions by Actively Trained Average Perceptron Ensembles

Precise geocoding and time normalization for text requires that location and time phrases be identified. Many state-of-the-art geoparsers and temporal parsers suffer from low recall. Categories commonly missed by parsers are: nouns used in a non- spatiotemporal sense, adjectival and adverbial phrases, prepositional phrases, and numerical phrases. We collected and annotated data set by querying commercial web searches API with such spatiotemporal expressions as were missed by state-of-the- art parsers. Due to the high cost of sentence annotation, active learning was used to label training data, and a new strategy was designed to better select training examples to reduce labeling cost. For the learning algorithm, we applied an average perceptron trained Featurized Hidden Markov Model (FHMM). Five FHMM instances were used to create an ensemble, with the output phrase selected by voting. Our ensemble model was tested on a range of sequential labeling tasks, and has shown competitive performance. Our contributions include (1) an new dataset annotated with named entities and expanded spatiotemporal expressions; (2) a comparison of inference algorithms for ensemble models showing the superior accuracy of Belief Propagation over Viterbi Decoding; (3) a new example re-weighting method for active ensemble learning that 'memorizes' the latest examples trained; (4) a spatiotemporal parser that jointly recognizes expanded spatiotemporal expressions as well as named entities.

  • 4 authors
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Aug 19, 2015

EoS-FM: Can an Ensemble of Specialist Models act as a Generalist Feature Extractor?

Recent advances in foundation models have shown great promise in domains such as natural language processing and computer vision, and similar efforts are now emerging in the Earth Observation community. These models aim to generalize across tasks with limited supervision, reducing the need for training separate models for each task. However, current strategies, which largely focus on scaling model size and dataset volume, require prohibitive computational and data resources, limiting accessibility to only a few large institutions. Moreover, this paradigm of ever-larger models stands in stark contrast with the principles of sustainable and environmentally responsible AI, as it leads to immense carbon footprints and resource inefficiency. In this work, we present a novel and efficient alternative: an Ensemble-of-Specialists framework for building Remote Sensing Foundation Models (RSFMs). Our method decomposes the training process into lightweight, task-specific ConvNeXtV2 specialists that can be frozen and reused. This modular approach offers strong advantages in efficiency, interpretability, and extensibility. Moreover, it naturally supports federated training, pruning, and continuous specialist integration, making it particularly well-suited for collaborative and resource-constrained settings. Our framework sets a new direction for building scalable and efficient RSFMs. All codes and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/pierreadorni/EoS-FM.

  • 4 authors
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Nov 26, 2025

Mitigating Hallucinations in YOLO-based Object Detection Models: A Revisit to Out-of-Distribution Detection

Object detection systems must reliably perceive objects of interest without being overly confident to ensure safe decision-making in dynamic environments. Filtering techniques based on out-of-distribution (OoD) detection are commonly added as an extra safeguard to filter hallucinations caused by overconfidence in novel objects. Nevertheless, evaluating YOLO-family detectors and their filters under existing OoD benchmarks often leads to unsatisfactory performance. This paper studies the underlying reasons for performance bottlenecks and proposes a methodology to improve performance fundamentally. Our first contribution is a calibration of all existing evaluation results: Although images in existing OoD benchmark datasets are claimed not to have objects within in-distribution (ID) classes (i.e., categories defined in the training dataset), around 13% of objects detected by the object detector are actually ID objects. Dually, the ID dataset containing OoD objects can also negatively impact the decision boundary of filters. These ultimately lead to a significantly imprecise performance estimation. Our second contribution is to consider the task of hallucination reduction as a joint pipeline of detectors and filters. By developing a methodology to carefully synthesize an OoD dataset that semantically resembles the objects to be detected, and using the crafted OoD dataset in the fine-tuning of YOLO detectors to suppress the objectness score, we achieve a 88% reduction in overall hallucination error with a combined fine-tuned detection and filtering system on the self-driving benchmark BDD-100K. Our code and dataset are available at: https://gricad-gitlab.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/dnn-safety/m-hood.

  • 5 authors
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Mar 10, 2025

ViT-EnsembleAttack: Augmenting Ensemble Models for Stronger Adversarial Transferability in Vision Transformers

Ensemble-based attacks have been proven to be effective in enhancing adversarial transferability by aggregating the outputs of models with various architectures. However, existing research primarily focuses on refining ensemble weights or optimizing the ensemble path, overlooking the exploration of ensemble models to enhance the transferability of adversarial attacks. To address this gap, we propose applying adversarial augmentation to the surrogate models, aiming to boost overall generalization of ensemble models and reduce the risk of adversarial overfitting. Meanwhile, observing that ensemble Vision Transformers (ViTs) gain less attention, we propose ViT-EnsembleAttack based on the idea of model adversarial augmentation, the first ensemble-based attack method tailored for ViTs to the best of our knowledge. Our approach generates augmented models for each surrogate ViT using three strategies: Multi-head dropping, Attention score scaling, and MLP feature mixing, with the associated parameters optimized by Bayesian optimization. These adversarially augmented models are ensembled to generate adversarial examples. Furthermore, we introduce Automatic Reweighting and Step Size Enlargement modules to boost transferability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ViT-EnsembleAttack significantly enhances the adversarial transferability of ensemble-based attacks on ViTs, outperforming existing methods by a substantial margin. Code is available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-AI-Group/TransferAttack.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 17, 2025

A Robust Ensemble Algorithm for Ischemic Stroke Lesion Segmentation: Generalizability and Clinical Utility Beyond the ISLES Challenge

Diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) is essential for stroke diagnosis, treatment decisions, and prognosis. However, image and disease variability hinder the development of generalizable AI algorithms with clinical value. We address this gap by presenting a novel ensemble algorithm derived from the 2022 Ischemic Stroke Lesion Segmentation (ISLES) challenge. ISLES'22 provided 400 patient scans with ischemic stroke from various medical centers, facilitating the development of a wide range of cutting-edge segmentation algorithms by the research community. Through collaboration with leading teams, we combined top-performing algorithms into an ensemble model that overcomes the limitations of individual solutions. Our ensemble model achieved superior ischemic lesion detection and segmentation accuracy on our internal test set compared to individual algorithms. This accuracy generalized well across diverse image and disease variables. Furthermore, the model excelled in extracting clinical biomarkers. Notably, in a Turing-like test, neuroradiologists consistently preferred the algorithm's segmentations over manual expert efforts, highlighting increased comprehensiveness and precision. Validation using a real-world external dataset (N=1686) confirmed the model's generalizability. The algorithm's outputs also demonstrated strong correlations with clinical scores (admission NIHSS and 90-day mRS) on par with or exceeding expert-derived results, underlining its clinical relevance. This study offers two key findings. First, we present an ensemble algorithm (https://github.com/Tabrisrei/ISLES22_Ensemble) that detects and segments ischemic stroke lesions on DWI across diverse scenarios on par with expert (neuro)radiologists. Second, we show the potential for biomedical challenge outputs to extend beyond the challenge's initial objectives, demonstrating their real-world clinical applicability.

  • 58 authors
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Mar 28, 2024