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Aug 21

SRC-Flow: Compact Semantic Representations Enable Normalizing Flows for Image Generation

Normalizing flows (NFs) provide exact likelihoods and deterministic invertible sampling, but have historically lagged behind diffusion models for large-scale image generation. We identify a key obstacle: NFs are required to learn a single invertible transport over the full ambient space, making them highly sensitive to high-dimensional representations. This leads to a semantic-capacity mismatch in modern visual representation spaces, where semantic information is compact but encoded in overcomplete features. We propose SRC-Flow, which introduces a Semantic Representation Compressor (SRC) to compact high-dimensional RAE features into a low-dimensional semantic space before flow modeling and preserve reconstruction through the frozen RAE decoder. This compact space reduces the modeling burden of NFs and enables effective likelihood-based generation in semantic representation space. We further adopt constant noise regularization tailored to the fixed unconditional bijection learned by flows. On ImageNet 256 times 256 and 512 times 512, SRC-Flow achieves state-of-the-art generation quality among normalizing flow methods, with gFID scores of 1.65 and 2.07 under classifier-free guidance, while retaining exact likelihood computation in the compact semantic representation space and deterministic invertible sampling at the flow level. Codes and models will be available at https://github.com/longtaojiang/SRC-Flow.

  • 7 authors
·
May 22

SAGA: A Sequence-Adaptive Generative Architecture for Multi-Horizon Probabilistic Forecasting with Adaptive Temporal Conformal Prediction

Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

  • 2 authors
·
May 17 1

Empirical study of Machine Learning Classifier Evaluation Metrics behavior in Massively Imbalanced and Noisy data

With growing credit card transaction volumes, the fraud percentages are also rising, including overhead costs for institutions to combat and compensate victims. The use of machine learning into the financial sector permits more effective protection against fraud and other economic crime. Suitably trained machine learning classifiers help proactive fraud detection, improving stakeholder trust and robustness against illicit transactions. However, the design of machine learning based fraud detection algorithms has been challenging and slow due the massively unbalanced nature of fraud data and the challenges of identifying the frauds accurately and completely to create a gold standard ground truth. Furthermore, there are no benchmarks or standard classifier evaluation metrics to measure and identify better performing classifiers, thus keeping researchers in the dark. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation to model human annotation errors and extreme imbalance typical in real world fraud detection data sets. By conducting empirical experiments on a hypothetical classifier, with a synthetic data distribution approximated to a popular real world credit card fraud data set, we simulate human annotation errors and extreme imbalance to observe the behavior of popular machine learning classifier evaluation matrices. We demonstrate that a combined F1 score and g-mean, in that specific order, is the best evaluation metric for typical imbalanced fraud detection model classification.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 25, 2022

Predicting life satisfaction using machine learning and explainable AI

Life satisfaction is a crucial facet of human well-being. Hence, research on life satisfaction is incumbent for understanding how individuals experience their lives and influencing interventions targeted at enhancing mental health and well-being. Life satisfaction has traditionally been measured using analog, complicated, and frequently error-prone methods. These methods raise questions concerning validation and propagation. However, this study demonstrates the potential for machine learning algorithms to predict life satisfaction with a high accuracy of 93.80% and a 73.00% macro F1-score. The dataset comes from a government survey of 19000 people aged 16-64 years in Denmark. Using feature learning techniques, 27 significant questions for assessing contentment were extracted, making the study highly reproducible, simple, and easily interpretable. Furthermore, clinical and biomedical large language models (LLMs) were explored for predicting life satisfaction by converting tabular data into natural language sentences through mapping and adding meaningful counterparts, achieving an accuracy of 93.74% and macro F1-score of 73.21%. It was found that life satisfaction prediction is more closely related to the biomedical domain than the clinical domain. Ablation studies were also conducted to understand the impact of data resampling and feature selection techniques on model performance. Moreover, the correlation between primary determinants with different age brackets was analyzed, and it was found that health condition is the most important determinant across all ages. This study demonstrates how machine learning, large language models and XAI can jointly contribute to building trust and understanding in using AI to investigate human behavior, with significant ramifications for academics and professionals working to quantify and comprehend subjective well-being.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 17, 2025

AutoDiffusion: Training-Free Optimization of Time Steps and Architectures for Automated Diffusion Model Acceleration

Diffusion models are emerging expressive generative models, in which a large number of time steps (inference steps) are required for a single image generation. To accelerate such tedious process, reducing steps uniformly is considered as an undisputed principle of diffusion models. We consider that such a uniform assumption is not the optimal solution in practice; i.e., we can find different optimal time steps for different models. Therefore, we propose to search the optimal time steps sequence and compressed model architecture in a unified framework to achieve effective image generation for diffusion models without any further training. Specifically, we first design a unified search space that consists of all possible time steps and various architectures. Then, a two stage evolutionary algorithm is introduced to find the optimal solution in the designed search space. To further accelerate the search process, we employ FID score between generated and real samples to estimate the performance of the sampled examples. As a result, the proposed method is (i).training-free, obtaining the optimal time steps and model architecture without any training process; (ii). orthogonal to most advanced diffusion samplers and can be integrated to gain better sample quality. (iii). generalized, where the searched time steps and architectures can be directly applied on different diffusion models with the same guidance scale. Experimental results show that our method achieves excellent performance by using only a few time steps, e.g. 17.86 FID score on ImageNet 64 times 64 with only four steps, compared to 138.66 with DDIM. The code is available at https://github.com/lilijiangg/AutoDiffusion.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 19, 2023

Cryo-Bench: Benchmarking Foundation Models for Cryosphere Applications

Geo-Foundation Models (GFMs) have been evaluated across diverse Earth observation task including multiple domains and have demonstrated strong potential of producing reliable maps even with sparse labels. However, benchmarking GFMs for Cryosphere applications has remained limited, primarily due to the lack of suitable evaluation datasets. To address this gap, we introduce Cryo-Bench, a benchmark compiled to evaluate GFM performance across key Cryospheric components. Cryo-Bench includes debris-covered glaciers, glacial lakes, sea ice, and calving fronts, spanning multiple sensors and broad geographic regions. We evaluate 14 GFMs alongside UNet and ViT baselines to assess their advantages, limitations, and optimal usage strategies. With a frozen encoder, UNet achieves the highest average mIoU of 66.38, followed by TerraMind at 64.02 across five evluation dataset included in Cryo-Bench. In the few-shot setting (10\% input data), GFMs such as DOFA and TerraMind outperform UNet, achieving mIoU scores of 59.53, 56.62, and 56.60, respectively, comapred to U-Net's 56.60. When fully finetuning GFMs, we observe inconsistent performance across datasets and models. However, tuning learning rate along with finetuning substantially improves GFM performance. For example, evaluation on two representative datasets (GLID and CaFFe) shows an average relative improvement of 12.77\%. Despite having minimal Cryosphere representation in their pretraining data, GFMs exhibit notable domain adaptation capabilities and produce meaningful results across tasks. Based on our findings, We recommend encoder fine-tuning with hyperparameter optimization optimization to achieve the best possible performance, while using frozen encoders when users need quick results without extensive experimentation.(https://github.com/Sk-2103/Cryo-Bench{GitHub}).

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 2 2

Robust Latent Matters: Boosting Image Generation with Sampling Error

Recent image generation schemes typically capture image distribution in a pre-constructed latent space relying on a frozen image tokenizer. Though the performance of tokenizer plays an essential role to the successful generation, its current evaluation metrics (e.g. rFID) fail to precisely assess the tokenizer and correlate its performance to the generation quality (e.g. gFID). In this paper, we comprehensively analyze the reason for the discrepancy of reconstruction and generation qualities in a discrete latent space, and, from which, we propose a novel plug-and-play tokenizer training scheme to facilitate latent space construction. Specifically, a latent perturbation approach is proposed to simulate sampling noises, i.e., the unexpected tokens sampled, from the generative process. With the latent perturbation, we further propose (1) a novel tokenizer evaluation metric, i.e., pFID, which successfully correlates the tokenizer performance to generation quality and (2) a plug-and-play tokenizer training scheme, which significantly enhances the robustness of tokenizer thus boosting the generation quality and convergence speed. Extensive benchmarking are conducted with 11 advanced discrete image tokenizers with 2 autoregressive generation models to validate our approach. The tokenizer trained with our proposed latent perturbation achieve a notable 1.60 gFID with classifier-free guidance (CFG) and 3.45 gFID without CFG with a sim400M generator. Code: https://github.com/lxa9867/ImageFolder.

  • 10 authors
·
Mar 11, 2025

Comprehensive Evaluation of Machine Learning for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction: Large-Scale External Validation and Fairness Analysis

Machine learning-based Type 2 diabetes risk prediction models obtain good internal validation results but lose effectiveness in real-world applications due to deficient external testing and fairness assessment. We developed a multi-dimensional framework evaluating discrimination, calibration, interpretability, and algorithmic fairness on nationally representative populations. An XGBoost model was trained on NHANES 2015-2020 (n=15,685) using eight non-laboratory predictors: age, sex, race/ethnicity, BMI, smoking status, physical activity, history of heart attack, and history of stroke. External validation was performed on BRFSS 2020-2022 (n=1,285,783) under realistic distribution shift. Internal validation showed good discrimination (AUC=0.794, 95% CI 0.788-0.800), with performance loss on external validation (AUC=0.717, relative decrease: -9.7%, p<0.001). Fairness analysis revealed severe bias: elderly adults (>=60) showed AUC=0.607 vs 0.742 for young adults (difference=0.135, p<0.001); obese individuals showed AUC=0.698 vs 0.735 for normal weight (difference=0.037, p<0.001). Gender showed comparable performance (male=0.723 vs female=0.712, p=0.142). Calibration revealed risk overestimation (Brier score=0.123). SHAP analysis identified age, BMI, and physical activity as primary risk drivers. Populations with highest diabetes risk receive the worst algorithmic performance, underscoring the need for fairness-aware, age-stratified deployment strategies before clinical use.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 26

Generative Modeling with Explicit Memory

Recent studies indicate that the denoising process in deep generative diffusion models implicitly learns and memorizes semantic information from the data distribution. These findings suggest that capturing more complex data distributions requires larger neural networks, leading to a substantial increase in computational demands, which in turn become the primary bottleneck in both training and inference of diffusion models. To this end, we introduce Generative Modeling with Explicit Memory (GMem), leveraging an external memory bank in both training and sampling phases of diffusion models. This approach preserves semantic information from data distributions, reducing reliance on neural network capacity for learning and generalizing across diverse datasets. The results are significant: our GMem enhances both training, sampling efficiency, and generation quality. For instance, on ImageNet at 256 times 256 resolution, GMem accelerates SiT training by over 46.7times, achieving the performance of a SiT model trained for 7M steps in fewer than 150K steps. Compared to the most efficient existing method, REPA, GMem still offers a 16times speedup, attaining an FID score of 5.75 within 250K steps, whereas REPA requires over 4M steps. Additionally, our method achieves state-of-the-art generation quality, with an FID score of {3.56} without classifier-free guidance on ImageNet 256times256. Our code is available at https://github.com/LINs-lab/GMem.

  • 4 authors
·
Dec 11, 2024

Are Performance-Optimization Benchmarks Reliably Measuring Coding Agents?

Repository-level performance-optimization benchmarks such as GSO, SWE-Perf and SWE-fficiency evaluate coding agents by applying patches to real repositories and comparing runtime against unoptimized baselines and official reference patches. Their leaderboard scores are increasingly used as evidence of coding-agent progress, but those scores can conflate runtime instability, benchmark-specific scoring rules, and how many tasks are already solved by at least one public submission. We audit these issues across the three benchmarks. First, we replay the official reference patches for 740 code optimization tasks across four common types of Google Cloud machines. Most benchmark tasks can be replayed, but their reference patches satisfy the original benchmark validity rules in every cross-machine replay for only 39/102 GSO tasks, 11/140 SWE-Perf tasks, and 411/498 SWE-fficiency tasks; SWE-Perf is especially fragile because many reference patches produce close-to-zero runtime changes. Second, we show that public submission rankings depend strongly on the benchmark scoring rule. Among eight public submissions shared by GSO and SWE-fficiency, the official rankings disagree on 9 of 28 pairwise submission comparisons, and SWE-fficiency's leaderboard scoring rule assigns the worst ten tasks overly high score weights of 58.5%-82.8%. Third, looking across 10 public submissions for each task, we find that at least one submission matches or beats the reference patch on 85.3% (384/450) of replay-valid GSO and SWE-fficiency tasks, and beats the unoptimized base code on 99.8% (449/450). Our study complements leaderboard scores by identifying tasks with more reliable performance signals, quantifying per-task score contributions, and exposing the remaining performance gaps that are hidden by aggregate rankings.