Daily Papers

Understanding the properties of neural networks trained via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is at the heart of the theory of deep learning. In this work, we take a mean-field view, and consider a two-layer ReLU network trained via SGD for a univariate regularized regression problem. Our main result is that SGD is biased towards a simple solution: at convergence, the ReLU network implements a piecewise linear map of the inputs, and the number of "knot" points - i.e., points where the tangent of the ReLU network estimator changes - between two consecutive training inputs is at most three. In particular, as the number of neurons of the network grows, the SGD dynamics is captured by the solution of a gradient flow and, at convergence, the distribution of the weights approaches the unique minimizer of a related free energy, which has a Gibbs form. Our key technical contribution consists in the analysis of the estimator resulting from this minimizer: we show that its second derivative vanishes everywhere, except at some specific locations which represent the "knot" points. We also provide empirical evidence that knots at locations distinct from the data points might occur, as predicted by our theory.

A bilayer formed by stacking two distinct materials creates a moiré lattice, which can serve as a platform for novel electronic phases. In this work we study a unique example of such a system: the graphene-black phosphorus heterostructure (G/BP), which has been suggested to have an intricate band structure. Most notably, the valence band hosts a quasi-one-dimensional region in the Brillouin zone of high density of states, suggesting that various many-body electronic phases are likely to emerge. We derive an effective tight-binding model that reproduces this band structure, and explore the emergent broken-symmetry phases when interactions are introduced. Employing a mean-field analysis, we find that the favored ground-state exhibits a striped spin density wave (SDW) order, characterized by either one of two-fold degenerate wave-vectors that are tunable by gating. Further exploring the phase-diagram controlled by gate voltage and the interaction strength, we find that the SDW-ordered state undergoes a metal to insulator transition via an intermediate metallic phase which supports striped SDW correlations. Possible experimental signatures are discussed, in particular a highly anisotropic dispersion of the collective excitations which should be manifested in electric and thermal transport.

Learning the behavior of large agent populations is an important task for numerous research areas. Although the field of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has made significant progress towards solving these systems, solutions for many agents often remain computationally infeasible and lack theoretical guarantees. Mean Field Games (MFGs) address both of these issues and can be extended to Graphon MFGs (GMFGs) to include network structures between agents. Despite their merits, the real world applicability of GMFGs is limited by the fact that graphons only capture dense graphs. Since most empirically observed networks show some degree of sparsity, such as power law graphs, the GMFG framework is insufficient for capturing these network topologies. Thus, we introduce the novel concept of Graphex MFGs (GXMFGs) which builds on the graph theoretical concept of graphexes. Graphexes are the limiting objects to sparse graph sequences that also have other desirable features such as the small world property. Learning equilibria in these games is challenging due to the rich and sparse structure of the underlying graphs. To tackle these challenges, we design a new learning algorithm tailored to the GXMFG setup. This hybrid graphex learning approach leverages that the system mainly consists of a highly connected core and a sparse periphery. After defining the system and providing a theoretical analysis, we state our learning approach and demonstrate its learning capabilities on both synthetic graphs and real-world networks. This comparison shows that our GXMFG learning algorithm successfully extends MFGs to a highly relevant class of hard, realistic learning problems that are not accurately addressed by current MARL and MFG methods.

Despite the widespread empirical success of ResNet, the generalization properties of deep ResNet are rarely explored beyond the lazy training regime. In this work, we investigate scaled ResNet in the limit of infinitely deep and wide neural networks, of which the gradient flow is described by a partial differential equation in the large-neural network limit, i.e., the mean-field regime. To derive the generalization bounds under this setting, our analysis necessitates a shift from the conventional time-invariant Gram matrix employed in the lazy training regime to a time-variant, distribution-dependent version. To this end, we provide a global lower bound on the minimum eigenvalue of the Gram matrix under the mean-field regime. Besides, for the traceability of the dynamic of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, we establish the linear convergence of the empirical error and estimate the upper bound of the KL divergence over parameters distribution. Finally, we build the uniform convergence for generalization bound via Rademacher complexity. Our results offer new insights into the generalization ability of deep ResNet beyond the lazy training regime and contribute to advancing the understanding of the fundamental properties of deep neural networks.

Effective macroeconomic policies play a crucial role in promoting economic growth and social stability. This paper models the optimal macroeconomic policy problem based on the Stackelberg Mean Field Game (SMFG), where the government acts as the leader in policy-making, and large-scale households dynamically respond as followers. This modeling method captures the asymmetric dynamic game between the government and large-scale households, and interpretably evaluates the effects of macroeconomic policies based on microfoundations, which is difficult for existing methods to achieve. We also propose a solution for SMFGs, incorporating pre-training on real data and a model-free Stackelberg mean-field reinforcement learning (SMFRL) algorithm, which operates independently of prior environmental knowledge and transitions. Our experimental results showcase the superiority of the SMFG method over other economic policies in terms of performance, efficiency-equity tradeoff, and SMFG assumption analysis. This paper significantly contributes to the domain of AI for economics by providing a powerful tool for modeling and solving optimal macroeconomic policies.

The entropic fictitious play (EFP) is a recently proposed algorithm that minimizes the sum of a convex functional and entropy in the space of measures -- such an objective naturally arises in the optimization of a two-layer neural network in the mean-field regime. In this work, we provide a concise primal-dual analysis of EFP in the setting where the learning problem exhibits a finite-sum structure. We establish quantitative global convergence guarantees for both the continuous-time and discrete-time dynamics based on properties of a proximal Gibbs measure introduced in Nitanda et al. (2022). Furthermore, our primal-dual framework entails a memory-efficient particle-based implementation of the EFP update, and also suggests a connection to gradient boosting methods. We illustrate the efficiency of our novel implementation in experiments including neural network optimization and image synthesis.

In this paper, we explore the application of mean field theory, a technique from statistical physics, to deep metric learning and address the high training complexity commonly associated with conventional metric learning loss functions. By adapting mean field theory for deep metric learning, we develop an approach to design classification-based loss functions from pair-based ones, which can be considered complementary to the proxy-based approach. Applying the mean field theory to two pair-based loss functions, we derive two new loss functions, MeanFieldContrastive and MeanFieldClassWiseMultiSimilarity losses, with reduced training complexity. We extensively evaluate these derived loss functions on three image-retrieval datasets and demonstrate that our loss functions outperform baseline methods in two out of the three datasets.

We study in detail a one-dimensional lattice model of a continuum, conserved field (mass) that is transferred deterministically between neighbouring random sites. The model falls in a wider class of lattice models capturing the joint effect of random advection and diffusion and encompassing as specific cases, some models studied in the literature, like the Kang-Redner, Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti, Takayasu-Taguchi, etc. The motivation for our setup comes from a straightforward interpretation as advection of particles in one-dimensional turbulence, but it is also related to a problem of synchronization of dynamical systems driven by common noise. For finite lattices, we study both the coalescence of an initially spread field (interpreted as roughening), and the statistical steady-state properties. We distinguish two main size-dependent regimes, depending on the strength of the diffusion term and on the lattice size. Using numerical simulations and mean-field approach, we study the statistics of the field. For weak diffusion, we unveil a characteristic hierarchical structure of the field. We also connect the model and the iterated function systems concept.

In this paper, we extend mean-field Langevin dynamics to minimax optimization over probability distributions for the first time with symmetric and provably convergent updates. We propose mean-field Langevin averaged gradient (MFL-AG), a single-loop algorithm that implements gradient descent ascent in the distribution spaces with a novel weighted averaging, and establish average-iterate convergence to the mixed Nash equilibrium. We also study both time and particle discretization regimes and prove a new uniform-in-time propagation of chaos result which accounts for the dependency of the particle interactions on all previous distributions. Furthermore, we propose mean-field Langevin anchored best response (MFL-ABR), a symmetric double-loop algorithm based on best response dynamics with linear last-iterate convergence. Finally, we study applications to zero-sum Markov games and conduct simulations demonstrating long-term optimality.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

Mean-field games have been used as a theoretical tool to obtain an approximate Nash equilibrium for symmetric and anonymous N-player games. However, limiting applicability, existing theoretical results assume variations of a "population generative model", which allows arbitrary modifications of the population distribution by the learning algorithm. Moreover, learning algorithms typically work on abstract simulators with population instead of the N-player game. Instead, we show that N agents running policy mirror ascent converge to the Nash equilibrium of the regularized game within mathcal{O}(varepsilon^{-2}) samples from a single sample trajectory without a population generative model, up to a standard O(1{N}) error due to the mean field. Taking a divergent approach from the literature, instead of working with the best-response map we first show that a policy mirror ascent map can be used to construct a contractive operator having the Nash equilibrium as its fixed point. We analyze single-path TD learning for N-agent games, proving sample complexity guarantees by only using a sample path from the N-agent simulator without a population generative model. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our methodology allows for independent learning by N agents with finite sample guarantees.

Finding the mixed Nash equilibria (MNE) of a two-player zero sum continuous game is an important and challenging problem in machine learning. A canonical algorithm to finding the MNE is the noisy gradient descent ascent method which in the infinite particle limit gives rise to the {\em Mean-Field Gradient Descent Ascent} (GDA) dynamics on the space of probability measures. In this paper, we first study the convergence of a two-scale Mean-Field GDA dynamics for finding the MNE of the entropy-regularized objective. More precisely we show that for each finite temperature (or regularization parameter), the two-scale Mean-Field GDA with a suitable {\em finite} scale ratio converges exponentially to the unique MNE without assuming the convexity or concavity of the interaction potential. The key ingredient of our proof lies in the construction of new Lyapunov functions that dissipate exponentially along the Mean-Field GDA. We further study the simulated annealing of the Mean-Field GDA dynamics. We show that with a temperature schedule that decays logarithmically in time the annealed Mean-Field GDA converges to the MNE of the original unregularized objective.

We propose a new method called the N-particle underdamped Langevin algorithm for optimizing a special class of non-linear functionals defined over the space of probability measures. Examples of problems with this formulation include training mean-field neural networks, maximum mean discrepancy minimization and kernel Stein discrepancy minimization. Our algorithm is based on a novel spacetime discretization of the mean-field underdamped Langevin dynamics, for which we provide a new, fast mixing guarantee. In addition, we demonstrate that our algorithm converges globally in total variation distance, bridging the theoretical gap between the dynamics and its practical implementation.

We propose that the grokking phenomenon, where the train loss of a neural network decreases much earlier than its test loss, can arise due to a neural network transitioning from lazy training dynamics to a rich, feature learning regime. To illustrate this mechanism, we study the simple setting of vanilla gradient descent on a polynomial regression problem with a two layer neural network which exhibits grokking without regularization in a way that cannot be explained by existing theories. We identify sufficient statistics for the test loss of such a network, and tracking these over training reveals that grokking arises in this setting when the network first attempts to fit a kernel regression solution with its initial features, followed by late-time feature learning where a generalizing solution is identified after train loss is already low. We provide an asymptotic theoretical description of the grokking dynamics in this model using dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) for high dimensional data. We find that the key determinants of grokking are the rate of feature learning -- which can be controlled precisely by parameters that scale the network output -- and the alignment of the initial features with the target function y(x). We argue this delayed generalization arises when (1) the top eigenvectors of the initial neural tangent kernel and the task labels y(x) are misaligned, but (2) the dataset size is large enough so that it is possible for the network to generalize eventually, but not so large that train loss perfectly tracks test loss at all epochs, and (3) the network begins training in the lazy regime so does not learn features immediately. We conclude with evidence that this transition from lazy (linear model) to rich training (feature learning) can control grokking in more general settings, like on MNIST, one-layer Transformers, and student-teacher networks.

The cost of hyperparameter tuning in deep learning has been rising with model sizes, prompting practitioners to find new tuning methods using a proxy of smaller networks. One such proposal uses muP parameterized networks, where the optimal hyperparameters for small width networks transfer to networks with arbitrarily large width. However, in this scheme, hyperparameters do not transfer across depths. As a remedy, we study residual networks with a residual branch scale of 1/text{depth} in combination with the muP parameterization. We provide experiments demonstrating that residual architectures including convolutional ResNets and Vision Transformers trained with this parameterization exhibit transfer of optimal hyperparameters across width and depth on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Furthermore, our empirical findings are supported and motivated by theory. Using recent developments in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) description of neural network learning dynamics, we show that this parameterization of ResNets admits a well-defined feature learning joint infinite-width and infinite-depth limit and show convergence of finite-size network dynamics towards this limit.

Deep Boltzmann machines (DBMs), one of the first ``deep'' learning methods ever studied, are multi-layered probabilistic models governed by a pairwise energy function that describes the likelihood of all variables/nodes in the network. In practice, DBMs are often constrained, i.e., via the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) architecture (which does not permit intra-layer connections), in order to allow for more efficient inference. In this work, we revisit the generic DBM approach, and ask the question: are there other possible restrictions to their design that would enable efficient (approximate) inference? In particular, we develop a new class of restricted model, the monotone DBM, which allows for arbitrary self-connection in each layer, but restricts the weights in a manner that guarantees the existence and global uniqueness of a mean-field fixed point. To do this, we leverage tools from the recently-proposed monotone Deep Equilibrium model and show that a particular choice of activation results in a fixed-point iteration that gives a variational mean-field solution. While this approach is still largely conceptual, it is the first architecture that allows for efficient approximate inference in fully-general weight structures for DBMs. We apply this approach to simple deep convolutional Boltzmann architectures and demonstrate that it allows for tasks such as the joint completion and classification of images, within a single deep probabilistic setting, while avoiding the pitfalls of mean-field inference in traditional RBMs.

MeanFlow (MF) has recently been established as a framework for one-step generative modeling. However, its ``fastforward'' nature introduces key challenges in both the training objective and the guidance mechanism. First, the original MF's training target depends not only on the underlying ground-truth fields but also on the network itself. To address this issue, we recast the objective as a loss on the instantaneous velocity v, re-parameterized by a network that predicts the average velocity u. Our reformulation yields a more standard regression problem and improves the training stability. Second, the original MF fixes the classifier-free guidance scale during training, which sacrifices flexibility. We tackle this issue by formulating guidance as explicit conditioning variables, thereby retaining flexibility at test time. The diverse conditions are processed through in-context conditioning, which reduces model size and benefits performance. Overall, our improved MeanFlow (iMF) method, trained entirely from scratch, achieves 1.72 FID with a single function evaluation (1-NFE) on ImageNet 256times256. iMF substantially outperforms prior methods of this kind and closes the gap with multi-step methods while using no distillation. We hope our work will further advance fastforward generative modeling as a stand-alone paradigm.

In this paper we study the out-of-equilibrium phase diagram of the quantum version of Derrida's Random Energy Model, which is the simplest model of mean-field spin glasses. We interpret its corresponding quantum dynamics in Fock space as a one-particle problem in very high dimension to which we apply different theoretical methods tailored for high-dimensional lattices: the Forward-Scattering Approximation, a mapping to the Rosenzweig-Porter model, and the cavity method. Our results indicate the existence of two transition lines and three distinct dynamical phases: a completely many-body localized phase at low energy, a fully ergodic phase at high energy, and a multifractal "bad metal" phase at intermediate energy. In the latter, eigenfunctions occupy a diverging volume, yet an exponentially vanishing fraction of the total Hilbert space. We discuss the limitations of our approximations and the relationship with previous studies.

This article considers the popular MCMC method of unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) and provides a non-asymptotic analysis of its sampling error in 2-Wasserstein distance. The proof is based on a refinement of mean-square analysis in Li et al. (2019), and this refined framework automates the analysis of a large class of sampling algorithms based on discretizations of contractive SDEs. Using this framework, we establish an O(d/epsilon) mixing time bound for LMC, without warm start, under the common log-smooth and log-strongly-convex conditions, plus a growth condition on the 3rd-order derivative of the potential of target measures. This bound improves the best previously known O(d/epsilon) result and is optimal (in terms of order) in both dimension d and accuracy tolerance epsilon for target measures satisfying the aforementioned assumptions. Our theoretical analysis is further validated by numerical experiments.

We present developments and applications for the diagonalization of shell-model hamiltonians in a discrete non-orthogonal basis (DNO-SM). The method, and its actual numerical implementation CARINA, based on mean-field and beyond-mean field techniques has already been applied in previous studies and is focused on basis states selection optimization. The method is benchmarked against a full set of sd shell exact diagonalizations, and is applied for the first time to the heavy deformed ^{254}No nucleus.

The k-means++ seeding algorithm (Arthur & Vassilvitskii, 2007) is widely used in practice for the k-means clustering problem where the goal is to cluster a dataset X subset R ^d into k clusters. The popularity of this algorithm is due to its simplicity and provable guarantee of being O(log k) competitive with the optimal solution in expectation. However, its running time is O(|X|kd), making it expensive for large datasets. In this work, we present a simple and effective rejection sampling based approach for speeding up k-means++. Our first method runs in time O(nnz (X) + beta k^2d) while still being O(log k ) competitive in expectation. Here, beta is a parameter which is the ratio of the variance of the dataset to the optimal k-means cost in expectation and O hides logarithmic factors in k and |X|. Our second method presents a new trade-off between computational cost and solution quality. It incurs an additional scale-invariant factor of k^{-Omega( m/beta)} Var (X) in addition to the O(log k) guarantee of k-means++ improving upon a result of (Bachem et al, 2016a) who get an additional factor of m^{-1}Var(X) while still running in time O(nnz(X) + mk^2d). We perform extensive empirical evaluations to validate our theoretical results and to show the effectiveness of our approach on real datasets.

In this note, we show that the Local Molecular Field theory of Weeks et. al. can be re-derived as an extremum problem for an approximate Helmholtz free energy. Using the resulting free energy as a classical, fluid density functional yields an implicit solvent method identical in form to the Molecular Density Functional theory of Borgis et. al., but with an explicit formula for the 'ideal' free energy term. This new expression for the ideal free energy term can be computed from all-atom molecular dynamics of a solvent with only short-range interactions. The key hypothesis required to make the theory valid is that all smooth (and hence long-range) energy functions obey Gaussian statistics. This is essentially a random phase approximation for perturbations from a short-range only, 'reference,' fluid. This single hypothesis is enough to prove that the self-consistent LMF procedure minimizes a novel density functional whose 'ideal' free energy is the molecular system under a specific, reference Hamiltonian, as opposed to the non-interacting gas of conventional density functionals. Implementation of this new functional into existing software should be straightforward and robust.

Primordial Magnetic Fields (PMFs) -- magnetic fields originating in the early Universe and permeating the cosmological scales today -- can explain the observed microGauss-level magnetisation of galaxies and their clusters. In light of current and upcoming all-sky radio surveys, PMFs have drawn attention not only as major candidates for explaining the large-scale magnetisation of the Universe, but also as potential probes of early-Universe physics. In this paper, using cosmological simulations coupled with light-cone analysis, we study for the first time the imprints of the PMF structure on the mean rotation measure (RM) originating in the intergalactic medium (IGM), langle RM_{IGM}rangle. We introduce a new method for producing full-sky RM_{IGM} distributions and analyse the autocorrelation of RM_{IGM} on small and large angular scales; we find that PMF structures indeed show distinct signatures. The large-scale uniform model (characterised by an initially unlimited coherence scale) leads to correlations up to 90 degrees, while correlations for small-scale stochastic PMF models drop by factor of 100 at 0.17, 0.13 and 0.11 degrees angular scales, corresponding to 5.24, 4.03 and 3.52 Mpc scales (at z=2 redshift) for magnetic fields with comoving 3.49, 1.81, 1.00 Mpc/h coherence scales, respectively; the correlation amplitude of the PMF model with comoving sim 19 Mpc/h coherence scale drops only by factor of 10 at 1 degree (30.6 Mpc). These results suggests that improvements in the modelling of Galactic RM will be necessary to investigate the signature of large-scale correlated PMFs. A comparison of langle RM_{IGM}rangle redshift dependence obtained from our simulations with that from the LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey shows agreement with our previous upper limits' estimates on the PMF strength derived from RM-rms analysis.

We study mean field portfolio games under Epstein-Zin preferences, which naturally encompass the classical time-additive power utility as a special case. In a general non-Markovian framework, we establish a uniqueness result by proving a one-to-one correspondence between Nash equilibria and the solutions to a class of BSDEs. A key ingredient in our approach is a necessary stochastic maximum principle tailored to Epstein-Zin utility and a nonlinear transformation. In the deterministic setting, we further derive an explicit closed-form solution for the equilibrium investment and consumption policies.

One-step generative modeling seeks to generate high-quality data samples in a single function evaluation, significantly improving efficiency over traditional diffusion or flow-based models. In this work, we introduce Modular MeanFlow (MMF), a flexible and theoretically grounded approach for learning time-averaged velocity fields. Our method derives a family of loss functions based on a differential identity linking instantaneous and average velocities, and incorporates a gradient modulation mechanism that enables stable training without sacrificing expressiveness. We further propose a curriculum-style warmup schedule to smoothly transition from coarse supervision to fully differentiable training. The MMF formulation unifies and generalizes existing consistency-based and flow-matching methods, while avoiding expensive higher-order derivatives. Empirical results across image synthesis and trajectory modeling tasks demonstrate that MMF achieves competitive sample quality, robust convergence, and strong generalization, particularly under low-data or out-of-distribution settings.

The Transformer is widely used in natural language processing tasks. To train a Transformer however, one usually needs a carefully designed learning rate warm-up stage, which is shown to be crucial to the final performance but will slow down the optimization and bring more hyper-parameter tunings. In this paper, we first study theoretically why the learning rate warm-up stage is essential and show that the location of layer normalization matters. Specifically, we prove with mean field theory that at initialization, for the original-designed Post-LN Transformer, which places the layer normalization between the residual blocks, the expected gradients of the parameters near the output layer are large. Therefore, using a large learning rate on those gradients makes the training unstable. The warm-up stage is practically helpful for avoiding this problem. On the other hand, our theory also shows that if the layer normalization is put inside the residual blocks (recently proposed as Pre-LN Transformer), the gradients are well-behaved at initialization. This motivates us to remove the warm-up stage for the training of Pre-LN Transformers. We show in our experiments that Pre-LN Transformers without the warm-up stage can reach comparable results with baselines while requiring significantly less training time and hyper-parameter tuning on a wide range of applications.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. The next location to be evaluated is selected via maximising an acquisition function that balances exploitation and exploration. Gaussian processes, the surrogate models of choice in Bayesian optimisation, are often used with a constant prior mean function equal to the arithmetic mean of the observed function values. We show that the rate of convergence can depend sensitively on the choice of mean function. We empirically investigate 8 mean functions (constant functions equal to the arithmetic mean, minimum, median and maximum of the observed function evaluations, linear, quadratic polynomials, random forests and RBF networks), using 10 synthetic test problems and two real-world problems, and using the Expected Improvement and Upper Confidence Bound acquisition functions. We find that for design dimensions ge5 using a constant mean function equal to the worst observed quality value is consistently the best choice on the synthetic problems considered. We argue that this worst-observed-quality function promotes exploitation leading to more rapid convergence. However, for the real-world tasks the more complex mean functions capable of modelling the fitness landscape may be effective, although there is no clearly optimum choice.

We consider dense, associative neural-networks trained with no supervision and we investigate their computational capabilities analytically, via a statistical-mechanics approach, and numerically, via Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we obtain a phase diagram summarizing their performance as a function of the control parameters such as the quality and quantity of the training dataset and the network storage, valid in the limit of large network size and structureless datasets. Moreover, we establish a bridge between macroscopic observables standardly used in statistical mechanics and loss functions typically used in the machine learning. As technical remarks, from the analytic side, we implement large deviations and stability analysis within Guerra's interpolation to tackle the not-Gaussian distributions involved in the post-synaptic potentials while, from the computational counterpart, we insert Plefka approximation in the Monte Carlo scheme, to speed up the evaluation of the synaptic tensors, overall obtaining a novel and broad approach to investigate neural networks in general.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

We develop a data-driven deep neural operator framework to approximate multiple output states for a diesel engine and generate real-time predictions with reasonable accuracy. As emission norms become more stringent, the need for fast and accurate models that enable analysis of system behavior have become an essential requirement for system development. The fast transient processes involved in the operation of a combustion engine make it difficult to develop accurate physics-based models for such systems. As an alternative to physics based models, we develop an operator-based regression model (DeepONet) to learn the relevant output states for a mean-value gas flow engine model using the engine operating conditions as input variables. We have adopted a mean-value model as a benchmark for comparison, simulated using Simulink. The developed approach necessitates using the initial conditions of the output states to predict the accurate sequence over the temporal domain. To this end, a sequence-to-sequence approach is embedded into the proposed framework. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the prediction output to ground truth generated from Simulink model. The maximum mathcal L_2 relative error observed was approximately 6.5%. The sensitivity of the DeepONet model is evaluated under simulated noise conditions and the model shows relatively low sensitivity to noise. The uncertainty in model prediction is further assessed by using a mean ensemble approach. The worst-case error at the (mu + 2sigma) boundary was found to be 12%. The proposed framework provides the ability to predict output states in real-time and enables data-driven learning of complex input-output operator mapping. As a result, this model can be applied during initial development stages, where accurate models may not be available.

Isolated quantum many-body systems which thermalize under their own dynamics are expected to act as their own thermal baths, thereby bringing their local subsystems to thermal equilibrium. Here we show that the infinite-dimensional limit of a quantum lattice model, as described by Dynamical Mean-Field theory (DMFT), provides a natural framework to understand this self-consistent thermalization process. Using the Fermi-Hubbard model as working example, we demonstrate that the emergence of a self-consistent bath thermalising the system is characterized by a sharp thermalization front, moving balistically and separating the initial condition from the long-time thermal fixed point. We characterize the full DMFT dynamics through an effective temperature for which we derive a travelling-wave equation of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (FKPP) type. This equation allows to predict the asymptotic shape of the front and its velocity, which match perfectly the full DMFT numerics. Our results provide a new angle to understand the onset of quantum thermalisation in closed isolated systems.

MeanFlow (MF) is a diffusion-motivated generative model that enables efficient few-step generation by learning long jumps directly from noise to data. In practice, it is often used as a latent MF by leveraging the pre-trained Stable Diffusion variational autoencoder (SD-VAE) for high-dimensional data modeling. However, MF training remains computationally demanding and is often unstable. During inference, the SD-VAE decoder dominates the generation cost, and MF depends on complex guidance hyperparameters for class-conditional generation. In this work, we develop an efficient training and sampling scheme for MF in the latent space of a Representation Autoencoder (RAE), where a pre-trained vision encoder (e.g., DINO) provides semantically rich latents paired with a lightweight decoder. We observe that naive MF training in the RAE latent space suffers from severe gradient explosion. To stabilize and accelerate training, we adopt Consistency Mid-Training for trajectory-aware initialization and use a two-stage scheme: distillation from a pre-trained flow matching teacher to speed convergence and reduce variance, followed by an optional bootstrapping stage with a one-point velocity estimator to further reduce deviation from the oracle mean flow. This design removes the need for guidance, simplifies training configurations, and reduces computation in both training and sampling. Empirically, our method achieves a 1-step FID of 2.03, outperforming vanilla MF's 3.43, while reducing sampling GFLOPS by 38% and total training cost by 83% on ImageNet 256. We further scale our approach to ImageNet 512, achieving a competitive 1-step FID of 3.23 with the lowest GFLOPS among all baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/sony/mf-rae.

From the dynamics of a broad class of classical mean-field glass models one may obtain a quantum model with finite zero-temperature entropy, a quantum transition at zero temperature, and a time-reparametrization (quasi-)invariance in the dynamical equations for correlations. The low eigenvalue spectrum of the resulting quantum model is directly related to the structure and exploration of metastable states in the landscape of the original classical glass model. This mapping reveals deep connections between classical glasses and the properties of SYK-like models.

We propose a principled and effective framework for one-step generative modeling. We introduce the notion of average velocity to characterize flow fields, in contrast to instantaneous velocity modeled by Flow Matching methods. A well-defined identity between average and instantaneous velocities is derived and used to guide neural network training. Our method, termed the MeanFlow model, is self-contained and requires no pre-training, distillation, or curriculum learning. MeanFlow demonstrates strong empirical performance: it achieves an FID of 3.43 with a single function evaluation (1-NFE) on ImageNet 256x256 trained from scratch, significantly outperforming previous state-of-the-art one-step diffusion/flow models. Our study substantially narrows the gap between one-step diffusion/flow models and their multi-step predecessors, and we hope it will motivate future research to revisit the foundations of these powerful models.

The ability of Variational Autoencoders to learn disentangled representations has made them appealing for practical applications. However, their mean representations, which are generally used for downstream tasks, have recently been shown to be more correlated than their sampled counterpart, on which disentanglement is usually measured. In this paper, we refine this observation through the lens of selective posterior collapse, which states that only a subset of the learned representations, the active variables, is encoding useful information while the rest (the passive variables) is discarded. We first extend the existing definition to multiple data examples and show that active variables are equally disentangled in mean and sampled representations. Based on this extension and the pre-trained models from disentanglement lib, we then isolate the passive variables and show that they are responsible for the discrepancies between mean and sampled representations. Specifically, passive variables exhibit high correlation scores with other variables in mean representations while being fully uncorrelated in sampled ones. We thus conclude that despite what their higher correlation might suggest, mean representations are still good candidates for downstream tasks applications. However, it may be beneficial to remove their passive variables, especially when used with models sensitive to correlated features.

Recent reinforcement learning (RL) methods have achieved success in various domains. However, multi-agent RL (MARL) remains a challenge in terms of decentralization, partial observability and scalability to many agents. Meanwhile, collective behavior requires resolution of the aforementioned challenges, and remains of importance to many state-of-the-art applications such as active matter physics, self-organizing systems, opinion dynamics, and biological or robotic swarms. Here, MARL via mean field control (MFC) offers a potential solution to scalability, but fails to consider decentralized and partially observable systems. In this paper, we enable decentralized behavior of agents under partial information by proposing novel models for decentralized partially observable MFC (Dec-POMFC), a broad class of problems with permutation-invariant agents allowing for reduction to tractable single-agent Markov decision processes (MDP) with single-agent RL solution. We provide rigorous theoretical results, including a dynamic programming principle, together with optimality guarantees for Dec-POMFC solutions applied to finite swarms of interest. Algorithmically, we propose Dec-POMFC-based policy gradient methods for MARL via centralized training and decentralized execution, together with policy gradient approximation guarantees. In addition, we improve upon state-of-the-art histogram-based MFC by kernel methods, which is of separate interest also for fully observable MFC. We evaluate numerically on representative collective behavior tasks such as adapted Kuramoto and Vicsek swarming models, being on par with state-of-the-art MARL. Overall, our framework takes a step towards RL-based engineering of artificial collective behavior via MFC.

We consider dense, associative neural-networks trained by a teacher (i.e., with supervision) and we investigate their computational capabilities analytically, via statistical-mechanics of spin glasses, and numerically, via Monte Carlo simulations. In particular, we obtain a phase diagram summarizing their performance as a function of the control parameters such as quality and quantity of the training dataset, network storage and noise, that is valid in the limit of large network size and structureless datasets: these networks may work in a ultra-storage regime (where they can handle a huge amount of patterns, if compared with shallow neural networks) or in a ultra-detection regime (where they can perform pattern recognition at prohibitive signal-to-noise ratios, if compared with shallow neural networks). Guided by the random theory as a reference framework, we also test numerically learning, storing and retrieval capabilities shown by these networks on structured datasets as MNist and Fashion MNist. As technical remarks, from the analytic side, we implement large deviations and stability analysis within Guerra's interpolation to tackle the not-Gaussian distributions involved in the post-synaptic potentials while, from the computational counterpart, we insert Plefka approximation in the Monte Carlo scheme, to speed up the evaluation of the synaptic tensors, overall obtaining a novel and broad approach to investigate supervised learning in neural networks, beyond the shallow limit, in general.

Clustering non-Euclidean data is difficult, and one of the most used algorithms besides hierarchical clustering is the popular algorithm Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), also simply referred to as k-medoids clustering. In Euclidean geometry the mean-as used in k-means-is a good estimator for the cluster center, but this does not exist for arbitrary dissimilarities. PAM uses the medoid instead, the object with the smallest dissimilarity to all others in the cluster. This notion of centrality can be used with any (dis-)similarity, and thus is of high relevance to many domains and applications. A key issue with PAM is its high run time cost. We propose modifications to the PAM algorithm that achieve an O(k)-fold speedup in the second ("SWAP") phase of the algorithm, but will still find the same results as the original PAM algorithm. If we relax the choice of swaps performed (while retaining comparable quality), we can further accelerate the algorithm by eagerly performing additional swaps in each iteration. With the substantially faster SWAP, we can now explore faster initialization strategies, because (i) the classic ("BUILD") initialization now becomes the bottleneck, and (ii) our swap is fast enough to compensate for worse starting conditions. We also show how the CLARA and CLARANS algorithms benefit from the proposed modifications. While we do not study the parallelization of our approach in this work, it can easily be combined with earlier approaches to use PAM and CLARA on big data (some of which use PAM as a subroutine, hence can immediately benefit from these improvements), where the performance with high k becomes increasingly important. In experiments on real data with k=100,200, we observed a 458x respectively 1191x speedup compared to the original PAM SWAP algorithm, making PAM applicable to larger data sets, and in particular to higher k.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

In this work, we explore two classes of density dependent relativistic mean-field models, their predictions of proton fractions at high densities and neutron star structure. We have used a metamodelling approach to these relativistic density functionals. We have generated a large ensemble of models with these classes and then applied constraints from theoretical and experimental nuclear physics and astrophysical observations. We find that both models produce similar equations of state and neutron star mass-radius sequences. But, their underlying compositions, denoted by the proton fraction in this case, are vastly different. This reinstates previous findings that information on composition gets masqueraded in beta-equilibrium. Additional observations of non-equilibrium phenomena are necessary to pin it down.

Integrating first-order logic constraints (FOLCs) with neural networks is a crucial but challenging problem since it involves modeling intricate correlations to satisfy the constraints. This paper proposes a novel neural layer, LogicMP, whose layers perform mean-field variational inference over an MLN. It can be plugged into any off-the-shelf neural network to encode FOLCs while retaining modularity and efficiency. By exploiting the structure and symmetries in MLNs, we theoretically demonstrate that our well-designed, efficient mean-field iterations effectively mitigate the difficulty of MLN inference, reducing the inference from sequential calculation to a series of parallel tensor operations. Empirical results in three kinds of tasks over graphs, images, and text show that LogicMP outperforms advanced competitors in both performance and efficiency.

We study the problem of training a flow-based generative model, parametrized by a two-layer autoencoder, to sample from a high-dimensional Gaussian mixture. We provide a sharp end-to-end analysis of the problem. First, we provide a tight closed-form characterization of the learnt velocity field, when parametrized by a shallow denoising auto-encoder trained on a finite number n of samples from the target distribution. Building on this analysis, we provide a sharp description of the corresponding generative flow, which pushes the base Gaussian density forward to an approximation of the target density. In particular, we provide closed-form formulae for the distance between the mean of the generated mixture and the mean of the target mixture, which we show decays as Theta_n(1{n}). Finally, this rate is shown to be in fact Bayes-optimal.

An obstacle to artificial general intelligence is set by continual learning of multiple tasks of different nature. Recently, various heuristic tricks, both from machine learning and from neuroscience angles, were proposed, but they lack a unified theory ground. Here, we focus on continual learning in single-layered and multi-layered neural networks of binary weights. A variational Bayesian learning setting is thus proposed, where the neural networks are trained in a field-space, rather than gradient-ill-defined discrete-weight space, and furthermore, weight uncertainty is naturally incorporated, and modulates synaptic resources among tasks. From a physics perspective, we translate the variational continual learning into Franz-Parisi thermodynamic potential framework, where previous task knowledge acts as a prior and a reference as well. We thus interpret the continual learning of the binary perceptron in a teacher-student setting as a Franz-Parisi potential computation. The learning performance can then be analytically studied with mean-field order parameters, whose predictions coincide with numerical experiments using stochastic gradient descent methods. Based on the variational principle and Gaussian field approximation of internal preactivations in hidden layers, we also derive the learning algorithm considering weight uncertainty, which solves the continual learning with binary weights using multi-layered neural networks, and performs better than the currently available metaplasticity algorithm. Our proposed principled frameworks also connect to elastic weight consolidation, weight-uncertainty modulated learning, and neuroscience inspired metaplasticity, providing a theory-grounded method for the real-world multi-task learning with deep networks.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Clustering non-Euclidean data is difficult, and one of the most used algorithms besides hierarchical clustering is the popular algorithm Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), also simply referred to as k-medoids. In Euclidean geometry the mean-as used in k-means-is a good estimator for the cluster center, but this does not hold for arbitrary dissimilarities. PAM uses the medoid instead, the object with the smallest dissimilarity to all others in the cluster. This notion of centrality can be used with any (dis-)similarity, and thus is of high relevance to many domains such as biology that require the use of Jaccard, Gower, or more complex distances. A key issue with PAM is its high run time cost. We propose modifications to the PAM algorithm to achieve an O(k)-fold speedup in the second SWAP phase of the algorithm, but will still find the same results as the original PAM algorithm. If we slightly relax the choice of swaps performed (at comparable quality), we can further accelerate the algorithm by performing up to k swaps in each iteration. With the substantially faster SWAP, we can now also explore alternative strategies for choosing the initial medoids. We also show how the CLARA and CLARANS algorithms benefit from these modifications. It can easily be combined with earlier approaches to use PAM and CLARA on big data (some of which use PAM as a subroutine, hence can immediately benefit from these improvements), where the performance with high k becomes increasingly important. In experiments on real data with k=100, we observed a 200-fold speedup compared to the original PAM SWAP algorithm, making PAM applicable to larger data sets as long as we can afford to compute a distance matrix, and in particular to higher k (at k=2, the new SWAP was only 1.5 times faster, as the speedup is expected to increase with k).

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Normalization layers are one of the key building blocks for deep neural networks. Several theoretical studies have shown that batch normalization improves the signal propagation, by avoiding the representations from becoming collinear across the layers. However, results on mean-field theory of batch normalization also conclude that this benefit comes at the expense of exploding gradients in depth. Motivated by these two aspects of batch normalization, in this study we pose the following question: "Can a batch-normalized network keep the optimal signal propagation properties, but avoid exploding gradients?" We answer this question in the affirmative by giving a particular construction of an Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) with linear activations and batch-normalization that provably has bounded gradients at any depth. Based on Weingarten calculus, we develop a rigorous and non-asymptotic theory for this constructed MLP that gives a precise characterization of forward signal propagation, while proving that gradients remain bounded for linearly independent input samples, which holds in most practical settings. Inspired by our theory, we also design an activation shaping scheme that empirically achieves the same properties for certain non-linear activations.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

We revisit quantum phase estimation algorithms for the purpose of obtaining the energy levels of many-body Hamiltonians and pay particular attention to the statistical analysis of their outputs. We introduce the mean phase direction of the parent distribution associated with eigenstate inputs as a new post-processing tool. By connecting it with the unknown phase, we find that if used as its direct estimator, it exceeds the accuracy of the standard majority rule using one less bit of resolution, making evident that it can also be inverted to provide unbiased estimation. Moreover, we show how to directly use this quantity to accurately find the energy levels when the initialized state is an eigenstate of the simulated propagator during the whole time evolution, which allows for shallower algorithms. We then use IBM Q hardware to carry out the digital quantum simulation of three toy models: a two-level system, a two-spin Ising model and a two-site Hubbard model at half-filling. Methodologies are provided to implement Trotterization and reduce the variability of results in noisy intermediate scale quantum computers.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

We revisit the theoretical properties of Hamiltonian stochastic differential equations (SDES) for Bayesian posterior sampling, and we study the two types of errors that arise from numerical SDE simulation: the discretization error and the error due to noisy gradient estimates in the context of data subsampling. Our main result is a novel analysis for the effect of mini-batches through the lens of differential operator splitting, revising previous literature results. The stochastic component of a Hamiltonian SDE is decoupled from the gradient noise, for which we make no normality assumptions. This leads to the identification of a convergence bottleneck: when considering mini-batches, the best achievable error rate is O(eta^2), with eta being the integrator step size. Our theoretical results are supported by an empirical study on a variety of regression and classification tasks for Bayesian neural networks.

Hyperparameter tuning is one of the essential steps to guarantee the convergence of machine learning models. We argue that intuition about the optimal choice of hyperparameters for stochastic gradient descent can be obtained by studying a neural network's phase diagram, in which each phase is characterised by distinctive dynamics of the singular values of weight matrices. Taking inspiration from disordered systems, we start from the observation that the loss landscape of a multilayer neural network with mean squared error can be interpreted as a disordered system in feature space, where the learnt features are mapped to soft spin degrees of freedom, the initial variance of the weight matrices is interpreted as the strength of the disorder, and temperature is given by the ratio of the learning rate and the batch size. As the model is trained, three phases can be identified, in which the dynamics of weight matrices is qualitatively different. Employing a Langevin equation for stochastic gradient descent, previously derived using Dyson Brownian motion, we demonstrate that the three dynamical regimes can be classified effectively, providing practical guidance for the choice of hyperparameters of the optimiser.

Systems of interacting objects often evolve under the influence of field effects that govern their dynamics, yet previous works have abstracted away from such effects, and assume that systems evolve in a vacuum. In this work, we focus on discovering these fields, and infer them from the observed dynamics alone, without directly observing them. We theorize the presence of latent force fields, and propose neural fields to learn them. Since the observed dynamics constitute the net effect of local object interactions and global field effects, recently popularized equivariant networks are inapplicable, as they fail to capture global information. To address this, we propose to disentangle local object interactions -- which are SE(n) equivariant and depend on relative states -- from external global field effects -- which depend on absolute states. We model interactions with equivariant graph networks, and combine them with neural fields in a novel graph network that integrates field forces. Our experiments show that we can accurately discover the underlying fields in charged particles settings, traffic scenes, and gravitational n-body problems, and effectively use them to learn the system and forecast future trajectories.

We study a new connection between a technical measure called mu-conductance that arises in the study of Markov chains for sampling convex bodies and the network community profile that characterizes size-resolved properties of clusters and communities in social and information networks. The idea of mu-conductance is similar to the traditional graph conductance, but disregards sets with small volume. We derive a sequence of optimization problems including a low-rank semi-definite program from which we can derive a lower bound on the optimal mu-conductance value. These ideas give the first theoretically sound bound on the behavior of the network community profile for a wide range of cluster sizes. The algorithm scales up to graphs with hundreds of thousands of nodes and we demonstrate how our framework validates the predicted structures of real-world graphs.

This paper develops a comprehensive theoretical framework that imports concepts from stochastic thermodynamics to model price impact and characterize the feasibility of round-trip arbitrage in financial markets. A trading cycle is treated as a non-equilibrium thermodynamic process, where price impact represents dissipative work and market noise plays the role of thermal fluctuations. The paper proves a Financial Second Law: under general convex impact functionals, any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit. This structural constraint is complemented by a fluctuation theorem that bounds the probability of profitable cycles in terms of dissipated work and market volatility. The framework introduces a statistical ensemble of trading strategies governed by a Gibbs measure, leading to a free energy decomposition that connects expected cost, strategy entropy, and a market temperature parameter. The framework provides rigorous, testable inequalities linking microstructural impact to macroscopic no-arbitrage conditions, offering a novel physics-inspired perspective on market efficiency. The paper derives explicit analytical results for prototypical trading strategies and discusses empirical validation protocols.

The proper design and architecture of testing of machine learning models, especially in their application to quantitative finance problems, is crucial. The most important in this process is selecting an adequate loss function used for training, validation, estimation purposes, and tuning of hyperparameters. Therefore, in this research, through empirical experiments on equity and cryptocurrency assets, we introduce the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function which is more adequate for optimizing forecast-generating models used in algorithmic investment strategies. The MADL function results are compared for Transformer and LSTM models and we show that almost in every case Transformer results are significantly better than those obtained with LSTM.

Machine Learning Force Fields (MLFFs) are a promising alternative to expensive ab initio quantum mechanical molecular simulations. Given the diversity of chemical spaces that are of interest and the cost of generating new data, it is important to understand how MLFFs generalize beyond their training distributions. In order to characterize and better understand distribution shifts in MLFFs, we conduct diagnostic experiments on chemical datasets, revealing common shifts that pose significant challenges, even for large foundation models trained on extensive data. Based on these observations, we hypothesize that current supervised training methods inadequately regularize MLFFs, resulting in overfitting and learning poor representations of out-of-distribution systems. We then propose two new methods as initial steps for mitigating distribution shifts for MLFFs. Our methods focus on test-time refinement strategies that incur minimal computational cost and do not use expensive ab initio reference labels. The first strategy, based on spectral graph theory, modifies the edges of test graphs to align with graph structures seen during training. Our second strategy improves representations for out-of-distribution systems at test-time by taking gradient steps using an auxiliary objective, such as a cheap physical prior. Our test-time refinement strategies significantly reduce errors on out-of-distribution systems, suggesting that MLFFs are capable of and can move towards modeling diverse chemical spaces, but are not being effectively trained to do so. Our experiments establish clear benchmarks for evaluating the generalization capabilities of the next generation of MLFFs. Our code is available at https://tkreiman.github.io/projects/mlff_distribution_shifts/.

To characterize the location (mean, median) of a set of graphs, one needs a notion of centrality that is adapted to metric spaces, since graph sets are not Euclidean spaces. A standard approach is to consider the Frechet mean. In this work, we equip a set of graphs with the pseudometric defined by the norm between the eigenvalues of their respective adjacency matrix. Unlike the edit distance, this pseudometric reveals structural changes at multiple scales, and is well adapted to studying various statistical problems for graph-valued data. We describe an algorithm to compute an approximation to the sample Frechet mean of a set of undirected unweighted graphs with a fixed size using this pseudometric.

Large Language Models achieve next-token prediction by transporting a vectorized piece of text (prompt) across an accompanying embedding space under the action of successive transformer layers. The resulting high-dimensional trajectories realize different contextualization, or 'thinking', steps, and fully determine the output probability distribution. We aim to characterize the statistical properties of ensembles of these 'lines of thought.' We observe that independent trajectories cluster along a low-dimensional, non-Euclidean manifold, and that their path can be well approximated by a stochastic equation with few parameters extracted from data. We find it remarkable that the vast complexity of such large models can be reduced to a much simpler form, and we reflect on implications.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in developing efficient training and fast sampling approaches for diffusion models. A recent remarkable advancement is the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to describe data perturbation and generative modeling in a unified mathematical framework. In this paper, we reveal several intriguing geometric structures of diffusion models and contribute a simple yet powerful interpretation to their sampling dynamics. Through carefully inspecting a popular variance-exploding SDE and its marginal-preserving ordinary differential equation (ODE) for sampling, we discover that the data distribution and the noise distribution are smoothly connected with an explicit, quasi-linear sampling trajectory, and another implicit denoising trajectory, which even converges faster in terms of visual quality. We also establish a theoretical relationship between the optimal ODE-based sampling and the classic mean-shift (mode-seeking) algorithm, with which we can characterize the asymptotic behavior of diffusion models and identify the score deviation. These new geometric observations enable us to improve previous sampling algorithms, re-examine latent interpolation, as well as re-explain the working principles of distillation-based fast sampling techniques.

Random network models play a prominent role in modeling, analyzing and understanding complex phenomena on real-life networks. However, a key property of networks is often neglected: many real-world networks exhibit spatial structure, the tendency of a node to select neighbors with a probability depending on physical distance. Here, we introduce a class of random spatial networks (RSNs) which generalizes many existing random network models but adds spatial structure. In these networks, nodes are placed randomly in space and joined in edges with a probability depending on their distance and their individual expected degrees, in a manner that crucially remains analytically tractable. We use this network class to propose a new generalization of small-world networks, where the average shortest path lengths in the graph are small, as in classical Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, but with close spatial proximity of nodes that are neighbors in the network playing the role of large clustering. Small-world effects are demonstrated on these spatial small-world networks without clustering. We are able to derive partial integro-differential equations governing susceptible-infectious-recovered disease spreading through an RSN, and we demonstrate the existence of traveling wave solutions. If the distance kernel governing edge placement decays slower than exponential, the population-scale dynamics are dominated by long-range hops followed by local spread of traveling waves. This provides a theoretical modeling framework for recent observations of how epidemics like Ebola evolve in modern connected societies, with long-range connections seeding new focal points from which the epidemic locally spreads in a wavelike manner.

Transformers play a central role in the inner workings of large language models. We develop a mathematical framework for analyzing Transformers based on their interpretation as interacting particle systems, which reveals that clusters emerge in long time. Our study explores the underlying theory and offers new perspectives for mathematicians as well as computer scientists.

We carry out an information-theoretical analysis of a two-layer neural network trained from input-output pairs generated by a teacher network with matching architecture, in overparametrized regimes. Our results come in the form of bounds relating i) the mutual information between training data and network weights, or ii) the Bayes-optimal generalization error, to the same quantities but for a simpler (generalized) linear model for which explicit expressions are rigorously known. Our bounds, which are expressed in terms of the number of training samples, input dimension and number of hidden units, thus yield fundamental performance limits for any neural network (and actually any learning procedure) trained from limited data generated according to our two-layer teacher neural network model. The proof relies on rigorous tools from spin glasses and is guided by ``Gaussian equivalence principles'' lying at the core of numerous recent analyses of neural networks. With respect to the existing literature, which is either non-rigorous or restricted to the case of the learning of the readout weights only, our results are information-theoretic (i.e. are not specific to any learning algorithm) and, importantly, cover a setting where all the network parameters are trained.

In the artificial neuron, I replace the dot product with the weighted Lehmer mean, which may emulate different cases of a generalized mean. The single neuron instance is replaced by a multiplet of neurons which have the same averaging weights. A group of outputs feed forward, in lieu of the single scalar. The generalization parameter is typically set to a different value for each neuron in the multiplet. I further extend the concept to a multiplet taken from the Gini mean. Derivatives with respect to the weight parameters and with respect to the two generalization parameters are given. Some properties of the network are investigated, showing the capacity to emulate the classical exclusive-or problem organically in two layers and perform some multiplication and division. The network can instantiate truncated power series and variants, which can be used to approximate different functions, provided that parameters are constrained. Moreover, a mean case slope score is derived that can facilitate a learning-rate novelty based on homogeneity of the selected elements. The multiplet neuron equation provides a way to segment regularization timeframes and approaches.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

The initial state of neural networks plays a central role in conditioning the subsequent training dynamics. In the context of classification problems, we provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating that the structure of a neural network can condition the model to assign all predictions to the same class, even before the beginning of training, and in the absence of explicit biases. We show that the presence of this phenomenon, which we call "Initial Guessing Bias" (IGB), depends on architectural choices such as activation functions, max-pooling layers, and network depth. Our analysis of IGB has practical consequences, in that it guides architecture selection and initialization. We also highlight theoretical consequences, such as the breakdown of node-permutation symmetry, the violation of self-averaging, the validity of some mean-field approximations, and the non-trivial differences arising with depth.

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

In recent years, groundbreaking advancements in natural language processing have culminated in the emergence of powerful large language models (LLMs), which have showcased remarkable capabilities across a vast array of domains, including the understanding, generation, and translation of natural language, and even tasks that extend beyond language processing. In this report, we delve into the performance of LLMs within the context of scientific discovery, focusing on GPT-4, the state-of-the-art language model. Our investigation spans a diverse range of scientific areas encompassing drug discovery, biology, computational chemistry (density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD)), materials design, and partial differential equations (PDE). Evaluating GPT-4 on scientific tasks is crucial for uncovering its potential across various research domains, validating its domain-specific expertise, accelerating scientific progress, optimizing resource allocation, guiding future model development, and fostering interdisciplinary research. Our exploration methodology primarily consists of expert-driven case assessments, which offer qualitative insights into the model's comprehension of intricate scientific concepts and relationships, and occasionally benchmark testing, which quantitatively evaluates the model's capacity to solve well-defined domain-specific problems. Our preliminary exploration indicates that GPT-4 exhibits promising potential for a variety of scientific applications, demonstrating its aptitude for handling complex problem-solving and knowledge integration tasks. Broadly speaking, we evaluate GPT-4's knowledge base, scientific understanding, scientific numerical calculation abilities, and various scientific prediction capabilities.

We propose a new definition of instance optimality for differentially private estimation algorithms. Our definition requires an optimal algorithm to compete, simultaneously for every dataset D, with the best private benchmark algorithm that (a) knows D in advance and (b) is evaluated by its worst-case performance on large subsets of D. That is, the benchmark algorithm need not perform well when potentially extreme points are added to D; it only has to handle the removal of a small number of real data points that already exist. This makes our benchmark significantly stronger than those proposed in prior work. We nevertheless show, for real-valued datasets, how to construct private algorithms that achieve our notion of instance optimality when estimating a broad class of dataset properties, including means, quantiles, and ell_p-norm minimizers. For means in particular, we provide a detailed analysis and show that our algorithm simultaneously matches or exceeds the asymptotic performance of existing algorithms under a range of distributional assumptions.

The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.

Diffusion (score-based) generative models have been widely used for modeling various types of complex data, including images, audios, and point clouds. Recently, the deep connection between forward-backward stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and diffusion-based models has been revealed, and several new variants of SDEs are proposed (e.g., sub-VP, critically-damped Langevin) along this line. Despite the empirical success of the hand-crafted fixed forward SDEs, a great quantity of proper forward SDEs remain unexplored. In this work, we propose a general framework for parameterizing the diffusion model, especially the spatial part of the forward SDE. An abstract formalism is introduced with theoretical guarantees, and its connection with previous diffusion models is leveraged. We demonstrate the theoretical advantage of our method from an optimization perspective. Numerical experiments on synthetic datasets, MINIST and CIFAR10 are also presented to validate the effectiveness of our framework.

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

1. The popularity of Machine learning (ML), Deep learning (DL), and Artificial intelligence (AI) has risen sharply in recent years. Despite this spike in popularity, the inner workings of ML and DL algorithms are often perceived as opaque, and their relationship to classical data analysis tools remains debated. 2. Although it is often assumed that ML and DL excel primarily at making predictions, ML and DL can also be used for analytical tasks traditionally addressed with statistical models. Moreover, most recent discussions and reviews on ML focus mainly on DL, missing out on synthesizing the wealth of ML algorithms with different advantages and general principles. 3. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the field of ML and DL, starting by summarizing its historical developments, existing algorithm families, differences to traditional statistical tools, and universal ML principles. We then discuss why and when ML and DL models excel at prediction tasks and where they could offer alternatives to traditional statistical methods for inference, highlighting current and emerging applications for ecological problems. Finally, we summarize emerging trends such as scientific and causal ML, explainable AI, and responsible AI that may significantly impact ecological data analysis in the future. 4. We conclude that ML and DL are powerful new tools for predictive modeling and data analysis. The superior performance of ML and DL algorithms compared to statistical models can be explained by their higher flexibility and automatic data-dependent complexity optimization. However, their use for causal inference is still disputed as the focus of ML and DL methods on predictions creates challenges for the interpretation of these models. Nevertheless, we expect ML and DL to become an indispensable tool in E&E, comparable to other traditional statistical tools.

The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growing interest in using normalizing flows in order to learn the transformation of a simple prior distribution to the given target distribution. Here we propose a generalized and combined approach to sample target densities: Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNF) -- an arbitrary sequence of deterministic invertible functions and stochastic sampling blocks. We show that stochasticity overcomes expressivity limitations of normalizing flows resulting from the invertibility constraint, whereas trainable transformations between sampling steps improve efficiency of pure MCMC/LD along the flow. By invoking ideas from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics we derive an efficient training procedure by which both the sampler's and the flow's parameters can be optimized end-to-end, and by which we can compute exact importance weights without having to marginalize out the randomness of the stochastic blocks. We illustrate the representational power, sampling efficiency and asymptotic correctness of SNFs on several benchmarks including applications to sampling molecular systems in equilibrium.

We investigate the relationship between the geometry of token embeddings and their role in the next token prediction within transformer models. An important aspect of this connection uses the notion of empirical measure, which encodes the distribution of token point clouds across transformer layers and drives the evolution of token representations in the mean-field interacting picture. We use metrics such as intrinsic dimension, neighborhood overlap, and cosine similarity to observationally probe these empirical measures across layers. To validate our approach, we compare these metrics to a dataset where the tokens are shuffled, which disrupts the syntactic and semantic structure. Our findings reveal a correlation between the geometric properties of token embeddings and the cross-entropy loss of next token predictions, implying that prompts with higher loss values have tokens represented in higher-dimensional spaces.

MeanFlow has recently emerged as a powerful framework for few-step generative modeling trained from scratch, but its success is not yet fully understood. In this work, we show that the MeanFlow objective naturally decomposes into two parts: trajectory flow matching and trajectory consistency. Through gradient analysis, we find that these terms are strongly negatively correlated, causing optimization conflict and slow convergence. Motivated by these insights, we introduce alpha-Flow, a broad family of objectives that unifies trajectory flow matching, Shortcut Model, and MeanFlow under one formulation. By adopting a curriculum strategy that smoothly anneals from trajectory flow matching to MeanFlow, alpha-Flow disentangles the conflicting objectives, and achieves better convergence. When trained from scratch on class-conditional ImageNet-1K 256x256 with vanilla DiT backbones, alpha-Flow consistently outperforms MeanFlow across scales and settings. Our largest alpha-Flow-XL/2+ model achieves new state-of-the-art results using vanilla DiT backbones, with FID scores of 2.58 (1-NFE) and 2.15 (2-NFE).

This book introduces the mathematical foundations and techniques that lead to the development and analysis of many of the algorithms that are used in machine learning. It starts with an introductory chapter that describes notation used throughout the book and serve at a reminder of basic concepts in calculus, linear algebra and probability and also introduces some measure theoretic terminology, which can be used as a reading guide for the sections that use these tools. The introductory chapters also provide background material on matrix analysis and optimization. The latter chapter provides theoretical support to many algorithms that are used in the book, including stochastic gradient descent, proximal methods, etc. After discussing basic concepts for statistical prediction, the book includes an introduction to reproducing kernel theory and Hilbert space techniques, which are used in many places, before addressing the description of various algorithms for supervised statistical learning, including linear methods, support vector machines, decision trees, boosting, or neural networks. The subject then switches to generative methods, starting with a chapter that presents sampling methods and an introduction to the theory of Markov chains. The following chapter describe the theory of graphical models, an introduction to variational methods for models with latent variables, and to deep-learning based generative models. The next chapters focus on unsupervised learning methods, for clustering, factor analysis and manifold learning. The final chapter of the book is theory-oriented and discusses concentration inequalities and generalization bounds.

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as one of the most promising frameworks for deep generative modelling, due to their state-of-the art performance in many generation tasks while relying on mathematical foundations such as stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Empirically, it has been reported that ODE based samples are inferior to SDE based samples. In this paper we rigorously describe the range of dynamics and approximations that arise when training score-based diffusion models, including the true SDE dynamics, the neural approximations, the various approximate particle dynamics that result, as well as their associated Fokker--Planck equations and the neural network approximations of these Fokker--Planck equations. We systematically analyse the difference between the ODE and SDE dynamics of score-based diffusion models, and link it to an associated Fokker--Planck equation. We derive a theoretical upper bound on the Wasserstein 2-distance between the ODE- and SDE-induced distributions in terms of a Fokker--Planck residual. We also show numerically that conventional score-based diffusion models can exhibit significant differences between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions which we demonstrate using explicit comparisons. Moreover, we show numerically that reducing the Fokker--Planck residual by adding it as an additional regularisation term leads to closing the gap between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions. Our experiments suggest that this regularisation can improve the distribution generated by the ODE, however that this can come at the cost of degraded SDE sample quality.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

This paper considers the learning of logical (Boolean) functions with focus on the generalization on the unseen (GOTU) setting, a strong case of out-of-distribution generalization. This is motivated by the fact that the rich combinatorial nature of data in certain reasoning tasks (e.g., arithmetic/logic) makes representative data sampling challenging, and learning successfully under GOTU gives a first vignette of an 'extrapolating' or 'reasoning' learner. We then study how different network architectures trained by (S)GD perform under GOTU and provide both theoretical and experimental evidence that for a class of network models including instances of Transformers, random features models, and diagonal linear networks, a min-degree-interpolator (MDI) is learned on the unseen. We also provide evidence that other instances with larger learning rates or mean-field networks reach leaky MDIs. These findings lead to two implications: (1) we provide an explanation to the length generalization problem (e.g., Anil et al. 2022); (2) we introduce a curriculum learning algorithm called Degree-Curriculum that learns monomials more efficiently by incrementing supports.

To the naked eye, stock prices are considered chaotic, dynamic, and unpredictable. Indeed, it is one of the most difficult forecasting tasks that hundreds of millions of retail traders and professional traders around the world try to do every second even before the market opens. With recent advances in the development of machine learning and the amount of data the market generated over years, applying machine learning techniques such as deep learning neural networks is unavoidable. In this work, we modeled the task as a multivariate forecasting problem, instead of a naive autoregression problem. The multivariate analysis is done using the attention mechanism via applying a mutated version of the Transformer, "Stockformer", which we created.

In deep learning theory, the covariance matrix of the representations serves as a proxy to examine the network's trainability. Motivated by the success of Transformers, we study the covariance matrix of a modified Softmax-based attention model with skip connections in the proportional limit of infinite-depth-and-width. We show that at initialization the limiting distribution can be described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) indexed by the depth-to-width ratio. To achieve a well-defined stochastic limit, the Transformer's attention mechanism is modified by centering the Softmax output at identity, and scaling the Softmax logits by a width-dependent temperature parameter. We examine the stability of the network through the corresponding SDE, showing how the scale of both the drift and diffusion can be elegantly controlled with the aid of residual connections. The existence of a stable SDE implies that the covariance structure is well-behaved, even for very large depth and width, thus preventing the notorious issues of rank degeneracy in deep attention models. Finally, we show, through simulations, that the SDE provides a surprisingly good description of the corresponding finite-size model. We coin the name shaped Transformer for these architectural modifications.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

We present a novel variational framework for performing inference in (neural) stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Markov-approximate fractional Brownian motion (fBM). SDEs offer a versatile tool for modeling real-world continuous-time dynamic systems with inherent noise and randomness. Combining SDEs with the powerful inference capabilities of variational methods, enables the learning of representative function distributions through stochastic gradient descent. However, conventional SDEs typically assume the underlying noise to follow a Brownian motion (BM), which hinders their ability to capture long-term dependencies. In contrast, fractional Brownian motion (fBM) extends BM to encompass non-Markovian dynamics, but existing methods for inferring fBM parameters are either computationally demanding or statistically inefficient. In this paper, building upon the Markov approximation of fBM, we derive the evidence lower bound essential for efficient variational inference of posterior path measures, drawing from the well-established field of stochastic analysis. Additionally, we provide a closed-form expression to determine optimal approximation coefficients. Furthermore, we propose the use of neural networks to learn the drift, diffusion and control terms within our variational posterior, leading to the variational training of neural-SDEs. In this framework, we also optimize the Hurst index, governing the nature of our fractional noise. Beyond validation on synthetic data, we contribute a novel architecture for variational latent video prediction,-an approach that, to the best of our knowledge, enables the first variational neural-SDE application to video perception.

Deep Learning has revolutionized vision via convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and natural language processing via recurrent neural networks (RNNs). However, success stories of Deep Learning with standard feed-forward neural networks (FNNs) are rare. FNNs that perform well are typically shallow and, therefore cannot exploit many levels of abstract representations. We introduce self-normalizing neural networks (SNNs) to enable high-level abstract representations. While batch normalization requires explicit normalization, neuron activations of SNNs automatically converge towards zero mean and unit variance. The activation function of SNNs are "scaled exponential linear units" (SELUs), which induce self-normalizing properties. Using the Banach fixed-point theorem, we prove that activations close to zero mean and unit variance that are propagated through many network layers will converge towards zero mean and unit variance -- even under the presence of noise and perturbations. This convergence property of SNNs allows to (1) train deep networks with many layers, (2) employ strong regularization, and (3) to make learning highly robust. Furthermore, for activations not close to unit variance, we prove an upper and lower bound on the variance, thus, vanishing and exploding gradients are impossible. We compared SNNs on (a) 121 tasks from the UCI machine learning repository, on (b) drug discovery benchmarks, and on (c) astronomy tasks with standard FNNs and other machine learning methods such as random forests and support vector machines. SNNs significantly outperformed all competing FNN methods at 121 UCI tasks, outperformed all competing methods at the Tox21 dataset, and set a new record at an astronomy data set. The winning SNN architectures are often very deep. Implementations are available at: github.com/bioinf-jku/SNNs.

Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) flows suffer from high computational costs in large scale computations. In this paper, we show that MMD flows with Riesz kernels K(x,y) = - |x-y|^r, r in (0,2) have exceptional properties which allow their efficient computation. We prove that the MMD of Riesz kernels, which is also known as energy distance, coincides with the MMD of their sliced version. As a consequence, the computation of gradients of MMDs can be performed in the one-dimensional setting. Here, for r=1, a simple sorting algorithm can be applied to reduce the complexity from O(MN+N^2) to O((M+N)log(M+N)) for two measures with M and N support points. As another interesting follow-up result, the MMD of compactly supported measures can be estimated from above and below by the Wasserstein-1 distance. For the implementations we approximate the gradient of the sliced MMD by using only a finite number P of slices. We show that the resulting error has complexity O(d/P), where d is the data dimension. These results enable us to train generative models by approximating MMD gradient flows by neural networks even for image applications. We demonstrate the efficiency of our model by image generation on MNIST, FashionMNIST and CIFAR10.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo has proven a remarkable empirical success, but only recently have we begun to develop a rigorous understanding of why it performs so well on difficult problems and how it is best applied in practice. Unfortunately, that understanding is confined within the mathematics of differential geometry which has limited its dissemination, especially to the applied communities for which it is particularly important. In this review I provide a comprehensive conceptual account of these theoretical foundations, focusing on developing a principled intuition behind the method and its optimal implementations rather of any exhaustive rigor. Whether a practitioner or a statistician, the dedicated reader will acquire a solid grasp of how Hamiltonian Monte Carlo works, when it succeeds, and, perhaps most importantly, when it fails.

Loss landscape is a useful tool to characterize and compare neural network models. The main challenge for analysis of loss landscape for the deep neural networks is that they are generally highly non-convex in very high dimensional space. In this paper, we develop "the roughness"concept for understanding such landscapes in high dimensions and apply this technique to study two neural network models arising from solving differential equations. Our main innovation is the proposal of a well-defined and easy-to-compute roughness index (RI) which is based on the mean and variance of the (normalized) total variation for one-dimensional functions projected on randomly sampled directions. A large RI at the local minimizer hints an oscillatory landscape profile and indicates a severe challenge for the first-order optimization method. Particularly, we observe the increasing-then-decreasing pattern for RI along the gradient descent path in most models. We apply our method to two types of loss functions used to solve partial differential equations (PDEs) when the solution of PDE is parametrized by neural networks. Our empirical results on these PDE problems reveal important and consistent observations that the landscapes from the deep Galerkin method around its local minimizers are less rough than the deep Ritz method.

A graph homomorphism is a map between two graphs that preserves adjacency relations. We consider the problem of sampling a random graph homomorphism from a graph into a large network. We propose two complementary MCMC algorithms for sampling random graph homomorphisms and establish bounds on their mixing times and the concentration of their time averages. Based on our sampling algorithms, we propose a novel framework for network data analysis that circumvents some of the drawbacks in methods based on independent and neighborhood sampling. Various time averages of the MCMC trajectory give us various computable observables, including well-known ones such as homomorphism density and average clustering coefficient and their generalizations. Furthermore, we show that these network observables are stable with respect to a suitably renormalized cut distance between networks. We provide various examples and simulations demonstrating our framework through synthetic networks. We also demonstrate the performance of our framework on the tasks of network clustering and subgraph classification on the Facebook100 dataset and on Word Adjacency Networks of a set of classic novels.

In this article, we study the consistency of the template estimation with the Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces. The Fr\'echet mean in quotient spaces is often used when the observations are deformed or transformed by a group action. We show that in most cases this estimator is actually inconsistent. We exhibit a sufficient condition for this inconsistency, which amounts to the folding of the distribution of the noisy template when it is projected to the quotient space. This condition appears to be fulfilled as soon as the support of the noise is large enough. To quantify this inconsistency we provide lower and upper bounds of the bias as a function of the variability (the noise level). This shows that the consistency bias cannot be neglected when the variability increases.

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather prediction, and urban planning. Neural Partial Differential Equations (Neural PDEs), which combine deep learning (DL) techniques with domain expertise (e.g., governing equations) for parameterization, have proven to be effective in capturing valuable correlations within spatiotemporal datasets. However, sparse and noisy measurements coupled with modeling approximation introduce aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Therefore, quantifying uncertainties propagated from model inputs to outputs remains a challenge and an essential goal for establishing the trustworthiness of Neural PDEs. This work evaluates various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) approaches for both Forward and Inverse Problems in scientific applications. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of Bayesian methods, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and Monte-Carlo Dropout (MCD), and a more conventional approach, Deep Ensembles (DE). To illustrate their performance, we take two canonical PDEs: Burger's equation and the Navier-Stokes equation. Our results indicate that Neural PDEs can effectively reconstruct flow systems and predict the associated unknown parameters. However, it is noteworthy that the results derived from Bayesian methods, based on our observations, tend to display a higher degree of certainty in their predictions as compared to those obtained using the DE. This elevated certainty in predictions suggests that Bayesian techniques might underestimate the true underlying uncertainty, thereby appearing more confident in their predictions than the DE approach.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.

There has been a recent surge of interest in modeling neural networks (NNs) as Gaussian processes. In the limit of a NN of infinite width the NN becomes equivalent to a Gaussian process. Here we demonstrate that for an ensemble of large, finite, fully connected networks with a single hidden layer the distribution of outputs at initialization is well described by a Gaussian perturbed by the fourth Hermite polynomial for weights drawn from a symmetric distribution. We show that the scale of the perturbation is inversely proportional to the number of units in the NN and that higher order terms decay more rapidly, thereby recovering the Edgeworth expansion. We conclude by observing that understanding how this perturbation changes under training would reveal the regimes in which the Gaussian process framework is valid to model NN behavior.

Language models (LMs) are being scaled and becoming powerful. Improving their efficiency is one of the core research topics in neural information processing systems. Tay et al. (2022) provided a comprehensive overview of efficient Transformers that have become an indispensable staple in the field of NLP. However, in the section of "On Evaluation", they left an open question "which fundamental efficient Transformer one should consider," answered by "still a mystery" because "many research papers select their own benchmarks." Unfortunately, there was not quantitative analysis about the performances of Transformers on any benchmarks. Moreover, state space models (SSMs) have demonstrated their abilities of modeling long-range sequences with non-attention mechanisms, which were not discussed in the prior review. This article makes a meta analysis on the results from a set of papers on efficient Transformers as well as those on SSMs. It provides a quantitative review on LM efficiency research and gives suggestions for future research.

The problem of attribution is concerned with identifying the parts of an input that are responsible for a model's output. An important family of attribution methods is based on measuring the effect of perturbations applied to the input. In this paper, we discuss some of the shortcomings of existing approaches to perturbation analysis and address them by introducing the concept of extremal perturbations, which are theoretically grounded and interpretable. We also introduce a number of technical innovations to compute extremal perturbations, including a new area constraint and a parametric family of smooth perturbations, which allow us to remove all tunable hyper-parameters from the optimization problem. We analyze the effect of perturbations as a function of their area, demonstrating excellent sensitivity to the spatial properties of the deep neural network under stimulation. We also extend perturbation analysis to the intermediate layers of a network. This application allows us to identify the salient channels necessary for classification, which, when visualized using feature inversion, can be used to elucidate model behavior. Lastly, we introduce TorchRay, an interpretability library built on PyTorch.

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Sparse autoencoders have recently produced dictionaries of high-dimensional vectors corresponding to the universe of concepts represented by large language models. We find that this concept universe has interesting structure at three levels: 1) The "atomic" small-scale structure contains "crystals" whose faces are parallelograms or trapezoids, generalizing well-known examples such as (man-woman-king-queen). We find that the quality of such parallelograms and associated function vectors improves greatly when projecting out global distractor directions such as word length, which is efficiently done with linear discriminant analysis. 2) The "brain" intermediate-scale structure has significant spatial modularity; for example, math and code features form a "lobe" akin to functional lobes seen in neural fMRI images. We quantify the spatial locality of these lobes with multiple metrics and find that clusters of co-occurring features, at coarse enough scale, also cluster together spatially far more than one would expect if feature geometry were random. 3) The "galaxy" scale large-scale structure of the feature point cloud is not isotropic, but instead has a power law of eigenvalues with steepest slope in middle layers. We also quantify how the clustering entropy depends on the layer.

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

Priorities in multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) convey the relevance preference of one criterion over another, which is usually reflected by imposing the non-negativity and unit-sum constraints. The processing of such priorities is different than other unconstrained data, but this point is often neglected by researchers, which results in fallacious statistical analysis. This article studies three prevalent fallacies in group MCDM along with solutions based on compositional data analysis to avoid misusing statistical operations. First, we use a compositional approach to aggregate the priorities of a group of DMs and show that the outcome of the compositional analysis is identical to the normalized geometric mean, meaning that the arithmetic mean should be avoided. Furthermore, a new aggregation method is developed, which is a robust surrogate for the geometric mean. We also discuss the errors in computing measures of dispersion, including standard deviation and distance functions. Discussing the fallacies in computing the standard deviation, we provide a probabilistic criteria ranking by developing proper Bayesian tests, where we calculate the extent to which a criterion is more important than another. Finally, we explain the errors in computing the distance between priorities, and a clustering algorithm is specially tailored based on proper distance metrics.

There is great potential to apply machine learning in the area of numerical lattice quantum field theory, but full exploitation of that potential will require new strategies. In this white paper for the Snowmass community planning process, we discuss the unique requirements of machine learning for lattice quantum field theory research and outline what is needed to enable exploration and deployment of this approach in the future.

The Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin-glass model used the replica symmetry method to find the phase transition of the system. In 1979-1980, Parisi proposed a solution based on replica symmetry breaking (RSB), which allowed him to identify the underlying phases of complex systems such as spin-glasses. Regardless of the method used for detection, the intrinsic phase of a system exists whether or not replicas are considered. We introduce a single replica method of spin-glass phase detection using the field's variation experienced by each spin in a system configuration. This method focuses on a single replica with quenched random couplings. Each spin inevitably observes a different field from the others. Our results show that the mean and variance of fields named "Spontaneous Configurational Field" experienced by spins are suitable indicators to explore different ferromagnetic, paramagnetic, and mixed phases. To classify different phases of the system with defined indicators we have developed an algorithm based on machine learning to analyze the desired samples.

Earth observation data such as satellite imagery can, when combined with machine learning, have profound impacts on our understanding of the geography of poverty through the prediction of living conditions, especially where government-derived economic indicators are either unavailable or potentially untrustworthy. Recent work has progressed in using EO data not only to predict spatial economic outcomes, but also to explore cause and effect, an understanding which is critical for downstream policy analysis. In this review, we first document the growth of interest in EO-ML analyses in the causal space. We then trace the relationship between spatial statistics and EO-ML methods before discussing the four ways in which EO data has been used in causal ML pipelines -- (1.) poverty outcome imputation for downstream causal analysis, (2.) EO image deconfounding, (3.) EO-based treatment effect heterogeneity, and (4.) EO-based transportability analysis. We conclude by providing a workflow for how researchers can incorporate EO data in causal ML analysis going forward.

Diffusion models are generative models that have recently demonstrated impressive performances in terms of sampling quality and density estimation in high dimensions. They rely on a forward continuous diffusion process and a backward continuous denoising process, which can be described by a time-dependent vector field and is used as a generative model. In the original formulation of the diffusion model, this vector field is assumed to be the score function (i.e. it is the gradient of the log-probability at a given time in the diffusion process). Curiously, on the practical side, most studies on diffusion models implement this vector field as a neural network function and do not constrain it be the gradient of some energy function (that is, most studies do not constrain the vector field to be conservative). Even though some studies investigated empirically whether such a constraint will lead to a performance gain, they lead to contradicting results and failed to provide analytical results. Here, we provide three analytical results regarding the extent of the modeling freedom of this vector field. {Firstly, we propose a novel decomposition of vector fields into a conservative component and an orthogonal component which satisfies a given (gauge) freedom. Secondly, from this orthogonal decomposition, we show that exact density estimation and exact sampling is achieved when the conservative component is exactly equals to the true score and therefore conservativity is neither necessary nor sufficient to obtain exact density estimation and exact sampling. Finally, we show that when it comes to inferring local information of the data manifold, constraining the vector field to be conservative is desirable.

Prior studies on the emergence in large models have primarily focused on how the functional capabilities of large language models (LLMs) scale with model size. Our research, however, transcends this traditional paradigm, aiming to deepen our understanding of the emergence within LLMs by placing a special emphasis not just on the model size but more significantly on the complex behavior of neuron interactions during the training process. By introducing the concepts of "self-organization" and "multifractal analysis," we explore how neuron interactions dynamically evolve during training, leading to "emergence," mirroring the phenomenon in natural systems where simple micro-level interactions give rise to complex macro-level behaviors. To quantitatively analyze the continuously evolving interactions among neurons in large models during training, we propose the Neuron-based Multifractal Analysis (NeuroMFA). Utilizing NeuroMFA, we conduct a comprehensive examination of the emergent behavior in LLMs through the lens of both model size and training process, paving new avenues for research into the emergence in large models.

Tangles were originally introduced as a concept to formalize regions of high connectivity in graphs. In recent years, they have also been discovered as a link between structural graph theory and data science: when interpreting similarity in data sets as connectivity between points, finding clusters in the data essentially amounts to finding tangles in the underlying graphs. This paper further explores the potential of tangles in data sets as a means for a formal study of clusters. Real-world data often follow a normal distribution. Accounting for this, we develop a quantitative theory of tangles in data sets drawn from Gaussian mixtures. To this end, we equip the data with a graph structure that models similarity between the points and allows us to apply tangle theory to the data. We provide explicit conditions under which tangles associated with the marginal Gaussian distributions exist asymptotically almost surely. This can be considered as a sufficient formal criterion for the separabability of clusters in the data.

Normalizing flows can transform a simple prior probability distribution into a more complex target distribution. Here, we evaluate the ability and efficiency of generative machine learning methods to sample the Boltzmann distribution of an atomistic model for glass-forming liquids. This is a notoriously difficult task, as it amounts to ergodically exploring the complex free energy landscape of a disordered and frustrated many-body system. We optimize a normalizing flow model to successfully transform high-temperature configurations of a dense liquid into low-temperature ones, near the glass transition. We perform a detailed comparative analysis with established enhanced sampling techniques developed in the physics literature to assess and rank the performance of normalizing flows against state-of-the-art algorithms. We demonstrate that machine learning methods are very promising, showing a large speedup over conventional molecular dynamics. Normalizing flows show performances comparable to parallel tempering and population annealing, while still falling far behind the swap Monte Carlo algorithm. Our study highlights the potential of generative machine learning models in scientific computing for complex systems, but also points to some of its current limitations and the need for further improvement.

We present Free energy Estimators with Adaptive Transport (FEAT), a novel framework for free energy estimation -- a critical challenge across scientific domains. FEAT leverages learned transports implemented via stochastic interpolants and provides consistent, minimum-variance estimators based on escorted Jarzynski equality and controlled Crooks theorem, alongside variational upper and lower bounds on free energy differences. Unifying equilibrium and non-equilibrium methods under a single theoretical framework, FEAT establishes a principled foundation for neural free energy calculations. Experimental validation on toy examples, molecular simulations, and quantum field theory demonstrates improvements over existing learning-based methods.

Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. However, there are many analytic choices which must be made to produce these samples. Though many of these choices are defensible, their impact on sample quality is poorly understood. I map out these analytic choices and demonstrate how a very small number of decisions can dramatically change the correspondence between silicon samples and human data. Configurations (N = 252) varied substantially in their capacity to estimate (i) rank ordering of participants, (ii) response distributions, and (iii) between-scale correlations. Most critically, configurations were not consistent in quality: those that performed well on one dimension often performed poorly on another, implying that there is no "one-size-fits-all" configuration that optimises the accuracy of these samples. I call for greater attention to the threat of analytic flexibility in using silicon samples.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

A popular approach to sample a diffusion-based generative model is to solve an ordinary differential equation (ODE). In existing samplers, the coefficients of the ODE solvers are pre-determined by the ODE formulation, the reverse discrete timesteps, and the employed ODE methods. In this paper, we consider accelerating several popular ODE-based sampling processes (including EDM, DDIM, and DPM-Solver) by optimizing certain coefficients via improved integration approximation (IIA). We propose to minimize, for each time step, a mean squared error (MSE) function with respect to the selected coefficients. The MSE is constructed by applying the original ODE solver for a set of fine-grained timesteps, which in principle provides a more accurate integration approximation in predicting the next diffusion state. The proposed IIA technique does not require any change of a pre-trained model, and only introduces a very small computational overhead for solving a number of quadratic optimization problems. Extensive experiments show that considerably better FID scores can be achieved by using IIA-EDM, IIA-DDIM, and IIA-DPM-Solver than the original counterparts when the neural function evaluation (NFE) is small (i.e., less than 25).

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Syntactic structures used to play a vital role in natural language processing (NLP), but since the deep learning revolution, NLP has been gradually dominated by neural models that do not consider syntactic structures in their design. One vastly successful class of neural models is transformers. When used as an encoder, a transformer produces contextual representation of words in the input sentence. In this work, we propose a new model of contextual word representation, not from a neural perspective, but from a purely syntactic and probabilistic perspective. Specifically, we design a conditional random field that models discrete latent representations of all words in a sentence as well as dependency arcs between them; and we use mean field variational inference for approximate inference. Strikingly, we find that the computation graph of our model resembles transformers, with correspondences between dependencies and self-attention and between distributions over latent representations and contextual embeddings of words. Experiments show that our model performs competitively to transformers on small to medium sized datasets. We hope that our work could help bridge the gap between traditional syntactic and probabilistic approaches and cutting-edge neural approaches to NLP, and inspire more linguistically-principled neural approaches in the future.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

Rydberg atom arrays have emerged as a powerful platform to simulate a number of exotic quantum ground states and phase transitions. To verify these capabilities numerically, we develop a versatile quantum Monte Carlo sampling technique which operates in the reduced Hilbert space generated by enforcing the constraint of a Rydberg blockade. We use the framework of stochastic series expansion and show that in the restricted space, the configuration space of operator strings can be understood as a hard rod gas in d+1 dimensions. We use this mapping to develop cluster algorithms which can be visualized as various non-local movements of rods. We study the efficiency of each of our updates individually and collectively. To elucidate the utility of the algorithm, we show that it can efficiently generate the phase diagram of a Rydberg atom array, to temperatures much smaller than all energy scales involved, on a Kagom\'e link lattice. This is of broad interest as the presence of a Z_2 spin liquid has been hypothesized recently.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.