Daily Papers

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

CPU performance prediction, which involves forecasting the performance scores of a CPU based on its hardware characteristics during its operation, is a critical technology for computational system design and resource management in the big data era. However, this research field currently faces two significant challenges. First, collecting real-world data is challenging due to the wide variety of CPU products on the market and the highly specialized nature of relevant hardware characteristics. In the research process, this field lacks a standard dataset with unified hardware characteristics, wide data coverage, and comprehensive benchmarks. Second, existing methods based on hardware simulation models or machine learning exhibit notable shortcomings, such as lengthy simulation test cycles and low prediction accuracy. To bridge these gaps, we first collect, preprocess, and standardize historical data from the 4th Generation Intel Xeon Scalable Processors across multiple benchmark suites to create a new dataset, named PerfCastDB. Subsequently, we design a deep learning based model called Nova CPU Performance Predictor (NCPP) as the baseline for this new dataset. The NCPP network is designed based on group attention mechanism. It effectively quantifies the implicit relationships between hardware characteristics within and across groups and comprehensively models the impact of various hardware characteristics on CPU performance prediction. We conduct comparative experiments using the proposed PerfCastDB dataset. Compared to existing approaches, NCPP achieves superior evaluation results, demonstrating its effectiveness. Furthermore, we have open-sourced part of the dataset and the NCPP network code to facilitate subsequent research. The resources can be accessed at https://github.com/xiaoman-liu/NCPP.

Predicting neural architecture performance is a challenging task and is crucial to neural architecture design and search. Existing approaches either rely on neural performance predictors which are limited to modeling architectures in a predefined design space involving specific sets of operators and connection rules, and cannot generalize to unseen architectures, or resort to zero-cost proxies which are not always accurate. In this paper, we propose GENNAPE, a Generalized Neural Architecture Performance Estimator, which is pretrained on open neural architecture benchmarks, and aims to generalize to completely unseen architectures through combined innovations in network representation, contrastive pretraining, and fuzzy clustering-based predictor ensemble. Specifically, GENNAPE represents a given neural network as a Computation Graph (CG) of atomic operations which can model an arbitrary architecture. It first learns a graph encoder via Contrastive Learning to encourage network separation by topological features, and then trains multiple predictor heads, which are soft-aggregated according to the fuzzy membership of a neural network. Experiments show that GENNAPE pretrained on NAS-Bench-101 can achieve superior transferability to 5 different public neural network benchmarks, including NAS-Bench-201, NAS-Bench-301, MobileNet and ResNet families under no or minimum fine-tuning. We further introduce 3 challenging newly labelled neural network benchmarks: HiAML, Inception and Two-Path, which can concentrate in narrow accuracy ranges. Extensive experiments show that GENNAPE can correctly discern high-performance architectures in these families. Finally, when paired with a search algorithm, GENNAPE can find architectures that improve accuracy while reducing FLOPs on three families.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

Neural architecture search (NAS) automates the design process of high-performing architectures, but remains bottlenecked by expensive performance evaluation. Most existing studies that achieve faster evaluation are mostly tied to cell-based search spaces and graph encodings tailored to those individual search spaces, limiting their flexibility and scalability when applied to more expressive search spaces. In this work, we aim to close the gap of individual search space restrictions and search space dependent network representations. We present ONNX-Bench, a benchmark consisting of a collection of neural networks in a unified format based on ONNX files. ONNX-Bench includes all open-source NAS-bench-based neural networks, resulting in a total size of more than 600k {architecture, accuracy} pairs. This benchmark allows creating a shared neural network representation, ONNX-Net, able to represent any neural architecture using natural language descriptions acting as an input to a performance predictor. This text-based encoding can accommodate arbitrary layer types, operation parameters, and heterogeneous topologies, enabling a single surrogate to generalise across all neural architectures rather than being confined to cell-based search spaces. Experiments show strong zero-shot performance across disparate search spaces using only a small amount of pretraining samples, enabling the unprecedented ability to evaluate any neural network architecture instantly.

The existence of a plethora of language models makes the problem of selecting the best one for a custom task challenging. Most state-of-the-art methods leverage transformer-based models (e.g., BERT) or their variants. Training such models and exploring their hyperparameter space, however, is computationally expensive. Prior work proposes several neural architecture search (NAS) methods that employ performance predictors (e.g., surrogate models) to address this issue; however, analysis has been limited to homogeneous models that use fixed dimensionality throughout the network. This leads to sub-optimal architectures. To address this limitation, we propose a suite of heterogeneous and flexible models, namely FlexiBERT, that have varied encoder layers with a diverse set of possible operations and different hidden dimensions. For better-posed surrogate modeling in this expanded design space, we propose a new graph-similarity-based embedding scheme. We also propose a novel NAS policy, called BOSHNAS, that leverages this new scheme, Bayesian modeling, and second-order optimization, to quickly train and use a neural surrogate model to converge to the optimal architecture. A comprehensive set of experiments shows that the proposed policy, when applied to the FlexiBERT design space, pushes the performance frontier upwards compared to traditional models. FlexiBERT-Mini, one of our proposed models, has 3% fewer parameters than BERT-Mini and achieves 8.9% higher GLUE score. A FlexiBERT model with equivalent performance as the best homogeneous model achieves 2.6x smaller size. FlexiBERT-Large, another proposed model, achieves state-of-the-art results, outperforming the baseline models by at least 5.7% on the GLUE benchmark.

Recent advances in Neural Architecture Search (NAS) such as one-shot NAS offer the ability to extract specialized hardware-aware sub-network configurations from a task-specific super-network. While considerable effort has been employed towards improving the first stage, namely, the training of the super-network, the search for derivative high-performing sub-networks is still under-explored. Popular methods decouple the super-network training from the sub-network search and use performance predictors to reduce the computational burden of searching on different hardware platforms. We propose a flexible search framework that automatically and efficiently finds optimal sub-networks that are optimized for different performance metrics and hardware configurations. Specifically, we show how evolutionary algorithms can be paired with lightly trained objective predictors in an iterative cycle to accelerate architecture search in a multi-objective setting for various modalities including machine translation and image classification.

Powerful large language models have facilitated the development of writing assistants that promise to significantly improve the quality and efficiency of composition and communication. However, a barrier to effective assistance is the lack of personalization in LLM outputs to the author's communication style and specialized knowledge. In this paper, we address this challenge by proposing PEARL, a retrieval-augmented LLM writing assistant personalized with a generation-calibrated retriever. Our retriever is trained to select historic user-authored documents for prompt augmentation, such that they are likely to best personalize LLM generations for a user request. We propose two key novelties for training our retriever: 1) A training data selection method that identifies user requests likely to benefit from personalization and documents that provide that benefit; and 2) A scale-calibrating KL-divergence objective that ensures that our retriever closely tracks the benefit of a document for personalized generation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PEARL in generating personalized workplace social media posts and Reddit comments. Finally, we showcase the potential of a generation-calibrated retriever to double as a performance predictor and further improve low-quality generations via LLM chaining.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have shown remarkable performance in visual synthesis but are computationally expensive due to the need for multiple evaluations during the sampling. Recent predictor-corrector diffusion samplers have significantly reduced the required number of function evaluations (NFE), but inherently suffer from a misalignment issue caused by the extra corrector step, especially with a large classifier-free guidance scale (CFG). In this paper, we introduce a new fast DPM sampler called DC-Solver, which leverages dynamic compensation (DC) to mitigate the misalignment of the predictor-corrector samplers. The dynamic compensation is controlled by compensation ratios that are adaptive to the sampling steps and can be optimized on only 10 datapoints by pushing the sampling trajectory toward a ground truth trajectory. We further propose a cascade polynomial regression (CPR) which can instantly predict the compensation ratios on unseen sampling configurations. Additionally, we find that the proposed dynamic compensation can also serve as a plug-and-play module to boost the performance of predictor-only samplers. Extensive experiments on both unconditional sampling and conditional sampling demonstrate that our DC-Solver can consistently improve the sampling quality over previous methods on different DPMs with a wide range of resolutions up to 1024times1024. Notably, we achieve 10.38 FID (NFE=5) on unconditional FFHQ and 0.394 MSE (NFE=5, CFG=7.5) on Stable-Diffusion-2.1. Code is available at https://github.com/wl-zhao/DC-Solver

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Existing NAS methods suffer from either an excessive amount of time for repetitive sampling and training of many task-irrelevant architectures. To tackle such limitations of existing NAS methods, we propose a paradigm shift from NAS to a novel conditional Neural Architecture Generation (NAG) framework based on diffusion models, dubbed DiffusionNAG. Specifically, we consider the neural architectures as directed graphs and propose a graph diffusion model for generating them. Moreover, with the guidance of parameterized predictors, DiffusionNAG can flexibly generate task-optimal architectures with the desired properties for diverse tasks, by sampling from a region that is more likely to satisfy the properties. This conditional NAG scheme is significantly more efficient than previous NAS schemes which sample the architectures and filter them using the property predictors. We validate the effectiveness of DiffusionNAG through extensive experiments in two predictor-based NAS scenarios: Transferable NAS and Bayesian Optimization (BO)-based NAS. DiffusionNAG achieves superior performance with speedups of up to 35 times when compared to the baselines on Transferable NAS benchmarks. Furthermore, when integrated into a BO-based algorithm, DiffusionNAG outperforms existing BO-based NAS approaches, particularly in the large MobileNetV3 search space on the ImageNet 1K dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/CownowAn/DiffusionNAG.

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend conformal prediction to the federated learning setting. The main challenge we face is data heterogeneity across the clients - this violates the fundamental tenet of exchangeability required for conformal prediction. We propose a weaker notion of partial exchangeability, better suited to the FL setting, and use it to develop the Federated Conformal Prediction (FCP) framework. We show FCP enjoys rigorous theoretical guarantees and excellent empirical performance on several computer vision and medical imaging datasets. Our results demonstrate a practical approach to incorporating meaningful uncertainty quantification in distributed and heterogeneous environments. We provide code used in our experiments https://github.com/clu5/federated-conformal.

Temporal motion modeling has always been a key component in multiple object tracking (MOT) which can ensure smooth trajectory movement and provide accurate positional information to enhance association precision. However, current motion models struggle to be both efficient and effective across different application scenarios. To this end, we propose TrackSSM inspired by the recently popular state space models (SSM), a unified encoder-decoder motion framework that uses data-dependent state space model to perform temporal motion of trajectories. Specifically, we propose Flow-SSM, a module that utilizes the position and motion information from historical trajectories to guide the temporal state transition of object bounding boxes. Based on Flow-SSM, we design a flow decoder. It is composed of a cascaded motion decoding module employing Flow-SSM, which can use the encoded flow information to complete the temporal position prediction of trajectories. Additionally, we propose a Step-by-Step Linear (S^2L) training strategy. By performing linear interpolation between the positions of the object in the previous frame and the current frame, we construct the pseudo labels of step-by-step linear training, ensuring that the trajectory flow information can better guide the object bounding box in completing temporal transitions. TrackSSM utilizes a simple Mamba-Block to build a motion encoder for historical trajectories, forming a temporal motion model with an encoder-decoder structure in conjunction with the flow decoder. TrackSSM is applicable to various tracking scenarios and achieves excellent tracking performance across multiple benchmarks, further extending the potential of SSM-like temporal motion models in multi-object tracking tasks. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Xavier-Lin/TrackSSM.

Many Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) approaches exploit motion information to associate all the detected objects across frames. However, many methods that rely on filtering-based algorithms, such as the Kalman Filter, often work well in linear motion scenarios but struggle to accurately predict the locations of objects undergoing complex and non-linear movements. To tackle these scenarios, we propose a motion-based MOT approach with an enhanced temporal motion predictor, ETTrack. Specifically, the motion predictor integrates a transformer model and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) to capture short-term and long-term motion patterns, and it predicts the future motion of individual objects based on the historical motion information. Additionally, we propose a novel Momentum Correction Loss function that provides additional information regarding the motion direction of objects during training. This allows the motion predictor rapidly adapt to motion variations and more accurately predict future motion. Our experimental results demonstrate that ETTrack achieves a competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art trackers on DanceTrack and SportsMOT, scoring 56.4% and 74.4% in HOTA metrics, respectively.

Learning self-supervised representations that are invariant and equivariant to transformations is crucial for advancing beyond traditional visual classification tasks. However, many methods rely on predictor architectures to encode equivariance, despite evidence that architectural choices, such as capsule networks, inherently excel at learning interpretable pose-aware representations. To explore this, we introduce EquiCaps (Equivariant Capsule Network), a capsule-based approach to pose-aware self-supervision that eliminates the need for a specialised predictor for enforcing equivariance. Instead, we leverage the intrinsic pose-awareness capabilities of capsules to improve performance in pose estimation tasks. To further challenge our assumptions, we increase task complexity via multi-geometric transformations to enable a more thorough evaluation of invariance and equivariance by introducing 3DIEBench-T, an extension of a 3D object-rendering benchmark dataset. Empirical results demonstrate that EquiCaps outperforms prior state-of-the-art equivariant methods on rotation prediction, achieving a supervised-level R^2 of 0.78 on the 3DIEBench rotation prediction benchmark and improving upon SIE and CapsIE by 0.05 and 0.04 R^2, respectively. Moreover, in contrast to non-capsule-based equivariant approaches, EquiCaps maintains robust equivariant performance under combined geometric transformations, underscoring its generalisation capabilities and the promise of predictor-free capsule architectures.

Large Language Model (LLM) workloads have distinct prefill and decode phases with different compute and memory requirements which should ideally be accounted for when scheduling input queries across different LLM instances in a cluster. However existing scheduling algorithms treat LLM workloads as monolithic jobs without considering the distinct characteristics of the two phases in each workload. This leads to sub-optimal scheduling and increased response latency. In this work, we propose a heuristic-guided reinforcement learning-based intelligent router for data-driven and workload-aware scheduling. Our router leverages a trainable response-length predictor, and a novel formulation for estimating the impact of mixing different workloads to schedule queries across LLM instances and achieve over 11\% lower end-to-end latency than existing approaches.

Deep learning models have achieved impressive prediction performance but often sacrifice interpretability, a critical consideration in high-stakes domains such as healthcare or policymaking. In contrast, generalized additive models (GAMs) can maintain interpretability but often suffer from poor prediction performance due to their inability to effectively capture feature interactions. In this work, we aim to bridge this gap by using pre-trained neural language models to extract embeddings for each input before learning a linear model in the embedding space. The final model (which we call Emb-GAM) is a transparent, linear function of its input features and feature interactions. Leveraging the language model allows Emb-GAM to learn far fewer linear coefficients, model larger interactions, and generalize well to novel inputs (e.g. unseen ngrams in text). Across a variety of natural-language-processing datasets, Emb-GAM achieves strong prediction performance without sacrificing interpretability. All code is made available on Github.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

Transformers, currently the state-of-the-art in natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, are prone to generate uncalibrated predictions or extreme probabilities, making the process of taking different decisions based on their output relatively difficult. In this paper we propose to build several inductive Venn--ABERS predictors (IVAP), which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under minimal assumptions, based on a selection of pre-trained transformers. We test their performance over a set of diverse NLU tasks and show that they are capable of producing well-calibrated probabilistic predictions that are uniformly spread over the [0,1] interval -- all while retaining the original model's predictive accuracy.

The prevalence of sarcasm in social media, conveyed through text-image combinations, presents significant challenges for sentiment analysis and intention mining. Current multi-modal sarcasm detection methods have been proven to struggle with biases from spurious cues, leading to a superficial understanding of the complex interactions between text and image. To address these issues, we propose InterCLIP-MEP, a robust framework for multi-modal sarcasm detection. InterCLIP-MEP introduces a refined variant of CLIP, Interactive CLIP (InterCLIP), as the backbone, enhancing sample representations by embedding cross-modality information in each encoder. Furthermore, a novel training strategy is designed to adapt InterCLIP for a Memory-Enhanced Predictor (MEP). MEP uses dynamic dual-channel memory to store valuable historical knowledge of test samples and then leverages this memory as a non-parametric classifier to derive the final prediction. By using InterCLIP to encode text-image interactions more effectively and incorporating MEP, InterCLIP-MEP offers a more robust recognition of multi-modal sarcasm. Experiments demonstrate that InterCLIP-MEP achieves state-of-the-art performance on the MMSD2.0 benchmark. Code and data are available at [https://github.com/CoderChen01/InterCLIP-MEP](https://github.com/CoderChen01/InterCLIP-MEP).

There are five types of trajectory prediction tasks: deterministic, stochastic, domain adaptation, momentary observation, and few-shot. These associated tasks are defined by various factors, such as the length of input paths, data split and pre-processing methods. Interestingly, even though they commonly take sequential coordinates of observations as input and infer future paths in the same coordinates as output, designing specialized architectures for each task is still necessary. For the other task, generality issues can lead to sub-optimal performances. In this paper, we propose SingularTrajectory, a diffusion-based universal trajectory prediction framework to reduce the performance gap across the five tasks. The core of SingularTrajectory is to unify a variety of human dynamics representations on the associated tasks. To do this, we first build a Singular space to project all types of motion patterns from each task into one embedding space. We next propose an adaptive anchor working in the Singular space. Unlike traditional fixed anchor methods that sometimes yield unacceptable paths, our adaptive anchor enables correct anchors, which are put into a wrong location, based on a traversability map. Finally, we adopt a diffusion-based predictor to further enhance the prototype paths using a cascaded denoising process. Our unified framework ensures the generality across various benchmark settings such as input modality, and trajectory lengths. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks demonstrate that SingularTrajectory substantially outperforms existing models, highlighting its effectiveness in estimating general dynamics of human movements. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/SingularTrajectory .

Pre-trained language models (PLMs) have been shown effective for zero-shot (0shot) text classification. 0shot models based on natural language inference (NLI) and next sentence prediction (NSP) employ cross-encoder architecture and infer by making a forward pass through the model for each label-text pair separately. This increases the computational cost to make inferences linearly in the number of labels. In this work, we improve the efficiency of such cross-encoder-based 0shot models by restricting the number of likely labels using another fast base classifier-based conformal predictor (CP) calibrated on samples labeled by the 0shot model. Since a CP generates prediction sets with coverage guarantees, it reduces the number of target labels without excluding the most probable label based on the 0shot model. We experiment with three intent and two topic classification datasets. With a suitable CP for each dataset, we reduce the average inference time for NLI- and NSP-based models by 25.6% and 22.2% respectively, without dropping performance below the predefined error rate of 1%.

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) yields state-of-the-art neural networks that outperform their best manually-designed counterparts. However, previous NAS methods search for architectures under one set of training hyper-parameters (i.e., a training recipe), overlooking superior architecture-recipe combinations. To address this, we present Neural Architecture-Recipe Search (NARS) to search both (a) architectures and (b) their corresponding training recipes, simultaneously. NARS utilizes an accuracy predictor that scores architecture and training recipes jointly, guiding both sample selection and ranking. Furthermore, to compensate for the enlarged search space, we leverage "free" architecture statistics (e.g., FLOP count) to pretrain the predictor, significantly improving its sample efficiency and prediction reliability. After training the predictor via constrained iterative optimization, we run fast evolutionary searches in just CPU minutes to generate architecture-recipe pairs for a variety of resource constraints, called FBNetV3. FBNetV3 makes up a family of state-of-the-art compact neural networks that outperform both automatically and manually-designed competitors. For example, FBNetV3 matches both EfficientNet and ResNeSt accuracy on ImageNet with up to 2.0x and 7.1x fewer FLOPs, respectively. Furthermore, FBNetV3 yields significant performance gains for downstream object detection tasks, improving mAP despite 18% fewer FLOPs and 34% fewer parameters than EfficientNet-based equivalents.

Inspired by the success of unsupervised pre-training paradigms, researchers have applied these approaches to DNA pre-training. However, we argue that these approaches alone yield suboptimal results because pure DNA sequences lack sufficient information, since their functions are regulated by genomic profiles like chromatin accessibility. Here, we demonstrate that supervised training for genomic profile prediction serves as a more effective alternative to pure sequence pre-training. Furthermore, considering the multi-species and multi-profile nature of genomic profile prediction, we introduce our Species-Profile Adaptive Collaborative Experts (SPACE) that leverages Mixture of Experts (MoE) to better capture the relationships between DNA sequences across different species and genomic profiles, thereby learning more effective DNA representations. Through extensive experiments across various tasks, our model achieves state-of-the-art performance, establishing that DNA models trained with supervised genomic profiles serve as powerful DNA representation learners. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhuJiwei111/SPACE.

Large-scale Protein Language Models (PLMs) have improved performance in protein prediction tasks, ranging from 3D structure prediction to various function predictions. In particular, AlphaFold, a ground-breaking AI system, could potentially reshape structural biology. However, the utility of the PLM module in AlphaFold, Evoformer, has not been explored beyond structure prediction. In this paper, we investigate the representation ability of three popular PLMs: ESM-1b (single sequence), MSA-Transformer (multiple sequence alignment) and Evoformer (structural), with a special focus on Evoformer. Specifically, we aim to answer the following key questions: (i) Does the Evoformer trained as part of AlphaFold produce representations amenable to predicting protein function? (ii) If yes, can Evoformer replace ESM-1b and MSA-Transformer? (ii) How much do these PLMs rely on evolution-related protein data? In this regard, are they complementary to each other? We compare these models by empirical study along with new insights and conclusions. All code and datasets for reproducibility are available at https://github.com/elttaes/Revisiting-PLMs.

In 3D human action recognition, limited supervised data makes it challenging to fully tap into the modeling potential of powerful networks such as transformers. As a result, researchers have been actively investigating effective self-supervised pre-training strategies. In this work, we show that instead of following the prevalent pretext task to perform masked self-component reconstruction in human joints, explicit contextual motion modeling is key to the success of learning effective feature representation for 3D action recognition. Formally, we propose the Masked Motion Prediction (MAMP) framework. To be specific, the proposed MAMP takes as input the masked spatio-temporal skeleton sequence and predicts the corresponding temporal motion of the masked human joints. Considering the high temporal redundancy of the skeleton sequence, in our MAMP, the motion information also acts as an empirical semantic richness prior that guide the masking process, promoting better attention to semantically rich temporal regions. Extensive experiments on NTU-60, NTU-120, and PKU-MMD datasets show that the proposed MAMP pre-training substantially improves the performance of the adopted vanilla transformer, achieving state-of-the-art results without bells and whistles. The source code of our MAMP is available at https://github.com/maoyunyao/MAMP.

Massively Multilingual Transformer based Language Models have been observed to be surprisingly effective on zero-shot transfer across languages, though the performance varies from language to language depending on the pivot language(s) used for fine-tuning. In this work, we build upon some of the existing techniques for predicting the zero-shot performance on a task, by modeling it as a multi-task learning problem. We jointly train predictive models for different tasks which helps us build more accurate predictors for tasks where we have test data in very few languages to measure the actual performance of the model. Our approach also lends us the ability to perform a much more robust feature selection and identify a common set of features that influence zero-shot performance across a variety of tasks.

Evaluating image-text alignment while reflecting human preferences across multiple aspects is a significant issue for the development of reliable vision-language applications. It becomes especially crucial in real-world scenarios where multiple valid descriptions exist depending on contexts or user needs. However, research progress is hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks and existing evaluation predictors lacking at least one of these key properties: (1) Alignment with human judgments, (2) Long-sequence processing, (3) Inference efficiency, and (4) Applicability to multi-objective scoring. To address these challenges, we propose a plug-and-play architecture to build a robust predictor, MULTI-TAP (Multi-Objective Task-Aware Predictor), capable of both multi and single-objective scoring. MULTI-TAP can produce a single overall score, utilizing a reward head built on top of a large vision-language model (LVLMs). We show that MULTI-TAP is robust in terms of application to different LVLM architectures, achieving significantly higher performance than existing metrics and even on par with the GPT-4o-based predictor, G-VEval, with a smaller size (7-8B). By training a lightweight ridge regression layer on the frozen hidden states of a pre-trained LVLM, MULTI-TAP can produce fine-grained scores for multiple human-interpretable objectives. MULTI-TAP performs better than VisionREWARD, a high-performing multi-objective reward model, in both performance and efficiency on multi-objective benchmarks and our newly released text-image-to-text dataset, EYE4ALL. Our new dataset, consisting of chosen/rejected human preferences (EYE4ALLPref) and human-annotated fine-grained scores across seven dimensions (EYE4ALLMulti), can serve as a foundation for developing more accessible AI systems by capturing the underlying preferences of users, including blind and low-vision (BLV) individuals.

ColorVideoVDP is a video and image quality metric that models spatial and temporal aspects of vision, for both luminance and color. The metric is built on novel psychophysical models of chromatic spatiotemporal contrast sensitivity and cross-channel contrast masking. It accounts for the viewing conditions, geometric, and photometric characteristics of the display. It was trained to predict common video streaming distortions (e.g. video compression, rescaling, and transmission errors), and also 8 new distortion types related to AR/VR displays (e.g. light source and waveguide non-uniformities). To address the latter application, we collected our novel XR-Display-Artifact-Video quality dataset (XR-DAVID), comprised of 336 distorted videos. Extensive testing on XR-DAVID, as well as several datasets from the literature, indicate a significant gain in prediction performance compared to existing metrics. ColorVideoVDP opens the doors to many novel applications which require the joint automated spatiotemporal assessment of luminance and color distortions, including video streaming, display specification and design, visual comparison of results, and perceptually-guided quality optimization.

Lightweight inference is critical for biomolecular structure prediction and other downstream tasks, enabling efficient real-world deployment and inference-time scaling for large-scale applications. In this work, we address the challenge of balancing model efficiency and prediction accuracy by making several key modifications, 1) Multi-step AF3 sampler is replaced by a few-step ODE sampler, significantly reducing computational overhead for the diffusion module part during inference; 2) In the open-source Protenix framework, a subset of pairformer or diffusion transformer blocks doesn't make contributions to the final structure prediction, presenting opportunities for architectural pruning and lightweight redesign; 3) A model incorporating an ESM module is trained to substitute the conventional MSA module, reducing MSA preprocessing time. Building on these key insights, we present Protenix-Mini, a compact and optimized model designed for efficient protein structure prediction. This streamlined version incorporates a more efficient architectural design with a two-step Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) sampling strategy. By eliminating redundant Transformer components and refining the sampling process, Protenix-Mini significantly reduces model complexity with slight accuracy drop. Evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that it achieves high-fidelity predictions, with only a negligible 1 to 5 percent decrease in performance on benchmark datasets compared to its full-scale counterpart. This makes Protenix-Mini an ideal choice for applications where computational resources are limited but accurate structure prediction remains crucial.

Large language models display remarkable capabilities in logical and mathematical reasoning, allowing them to solve complex tasks. Interestingly, these abilities emerge in networks trained on the simple task of next-token prediction. In this work, we present a theoretical framework for studying auto-regressive next-token predictors. We demonstrate that even simple models such as linear next-token predictors, trained on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) data, can approximate any function efficiently computed by a Turing machine. We introduce a new complexity measure -- length complexity -- which measures the number of intermediate tokens in a CoT sequence required to approximate some target function, and analyze the interplay between length complexity and other notions of complexity. Finally, we show experimentally that simple next-token predictors, such as linear networks and shallow Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), display non-trivial performance on text generation and arithmetic tasks. Our results demonstrate that the power of language models can be attributed, to a great extent, to the auto-regressive next-token training scheme, and not necessarily to a particular choice of architecture.

Recently, artificial intelligence techniques for education have been received increasing attentions, while it still remains an open problem to design the effective music instrument instructing systems. Although key presses can be directly derived from sheet music, the transitional movements among key presses require more extensive guidance in piano performance. In this work, we construct a piano-hand motion generation benchmark to guide hand movements and fingerings for piano playing. To this end, we collect an annotated dataset, PianoMotion10M, consisting of 116 hours of piano playing videos from a bird's-eye view with 10 million annotated hand poses. We also introduce a powerful baseline model that generates hand motions from piano audios through a position predictor and a position-guided gesture generator. Furthermore, a series of evaluation metrics are designed to assess the performance of the baseline model, including motion similarity, smoothness, positional accuracy of left and right hands, and overall fidelity of movement distribution. Despite that piano key presses with respect to music scores or audios are already accessible, PianoMotion10M aims to provide guidance on piano fingering for instruction purposes. The source code and dataset can be accessed at https://github.com/agnJason/PianoMotion10M.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

Reasoning on knowledge graphs is a challenging task because it utilizes observed information to predict the missing one. Particularly, answering complex queries based on first-order logic is one of the crucial tasks to verify learning to reason abilities for generalization and composition. Recently, the prevailing method is query embedding which learns the embedding of a set of entities and treats logic operations as set operations and has shown great empirical success. Though there has been much research following the same formulation, many of its claims lack a formal and systematic inspection. In this paper, we rethink this formulation and justify many of the previous claims by characterizing the scope of queries investigated previously and precisely identifying the gap between its formulation and its goal, as well as providing complexity analysis for the currently investigated queries. Moreover, we develop a new dataset containing ten new types of queries with features that have never been considered and therefore can provide a thorough investigation of complex queries. Finally, we propose a new neural-symbolic method, Fuzzy Inference with Truth value (FIT), where we equip the neural link predictors with fuzzy logic theory to support end-to-end learning using complex queries with provable reasoning capability. Empirical results show that our method outperforms previous methods significantly in the new dataset and also surpasses previous methods in the existing dataset at the same time.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Unsupervised representation learning presents new opportunities for advancing Quantum Architecture Search (QAS) on Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices. QAS is designed to optimize quantum circuits for Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs). Most QAS algorithms tightly couple the search space and search algorithm, typically requiring the evaluation of numerous quantum circuits, resulting in high computational costs and limiting scalability to larger quantum circuits. Predictor-based QAS algorithms mitigate this issue by estimating circuit performance based on structure or embedding. However, these methods often demand time-intensive labeling to optimize gate parameters across many circuits, which is crucial for training accurate predictors. Inspired by the classical neural architecture search algorithm Arch2vec, we investigate the potential of unsupervised representation learning for QAS without relying on predictors. Our framework decouples unsupervised architecture representation learning from the search process, enabling the learned representations to be applied across various downstream tasks. Additionally, it integrates an improved quantum circuit graph encoding scheme, addressing the limitations of existing representations and enhancing search efficiency. This predictor-free approach removes the need for large labeled datasets. During the search, we employ REINFORCE and Bayesian Optimization to explore the latent representation space and compare their performance against baseline methods. Our results demonstrate that the framework efficiently identifies high-performing quantum circuits with fewer search iterations.

Benchmark performance of deep learning classifiers alone is not a reliable predictor for the performance of a deployed model. In particular, if the image classifier has picked up spurious features in the training data, its predictions can fail in unexpected ways. In this paper, we develop a framework that allows us to systematically identify spurious features in large datasets like ImageNet. It is based on our neural PCA components and their visualization. Previous work on spurious features often operates in toy settings or requires costly pixel-wise annotations. In contrast, we work with ImageNet and validate our results by showing that presence of the harmful spurious feature of a class alone is sufficient to trigger the prediction of that class. We introduce the novel dataset "Spurious ImageNet" which allows to measure the reliance of any ImageNet classifier on harmful spurious features. Moreover, we introduce SpuFix as a simple mitigation method to reduce the dependence of any ImageNet classifier on previously identified harmful spurious features without requiring additional labels or retraining of the model. We provide code and data at https://github.com/YanNeu/spurious_imagenet .

Large language models (LLMs) contain substantial factual knowledge which is commonly elicited by multiple-choice question-answering prompts. Internally, such models process the prompt through multiple transformer layers, building varying representations of the problem within its hidden states. Ultimately, however, only the hidden state corresponding to the final layer and token position are used to predict the answer label. In this work, we propose instead to learn a small separate neural network predictor module on a collection of training questions, that take the hidden states from all the layers at the last temporal position as input and outputs predictions. In effect, such a framework disentangles the representational abilities of LLMs from their predictive abilities. On a collection of hard benchmarks, our method achieves considerable improvements in performance, sometimes comparable to supervised fine-tuning procedures, but at a fraction of the computational cost.

As machine learning (ML) is increasingly implemented in hardware to address real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced toolchains has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as hardware synthesis, are becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To mitigate these emerging constraints, multiple efforts have been undertaken to develop an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of ML accelerator architectures. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of over 680,000 fully connected and convolutional neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, and the average performance across a subset of the dataset. Additionally, we introduce GNN- and transformer-based surrogate models that predict latency and resources for ML accelerators. We present the architecture and performance of the models and find that the models generally predict latency and resources for the 75% percentile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset.

ML models often exhibit unexpectedly poor behavior when they are deployed in real-world domains. We identify underspecification as a key reason for these failures. An ML pipeline is underspecified when it can return many predictors with equivalently strong held-out performance in the training domain. Underspecification is common in modern ML pipelines, such as those based on deep learning. Predictors returned by underspecified pipelines are often treated as equivalent based on their training domain performance, but we show here that such predictors can behave very differently in deployment domains. This ambiguity can lead to instability and poor model behavior in practice, and is a distinct failure mode from previously identified issues arising from structural mismatch between training and deployment domains. We show that this problem appears in a wide variety of practical ML pipelines, using examples from computer vision, medical imaging, natural language processing, clinical risk prediction based on electronic health records, and medical genomics. Our results show the need to explicitly account for underspecification in modeling pipelines that are intended for real-world deployment in any domain.

We introduce a novel framework for incorporating human expertise into algorithmic predictions. Our approach leverages human judgment to distinguish inputs which are algorithmically indistinguishable, or "look the same" to predictive algorithms. We argue that this framing clarifies the problem of human-AI collaboration in prediction tasks, as experts often form judgments by drawing on information which is not encoded in an algorithm's training data. Algorithmic indistinguishability yields a natural test for assessing whether experts incorporate this kind of "side information", and further provides a simple but principled method for selectively incorporating human feedback into algorithmic predictions. We show that this method provably improves the performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor and precisely quantify this improvement. We find empirically that although algorithms often outperform their human counterparts on average, human judgment can improve algorithmic predictions on specific instances (which can be identified ex-ante). In an X-ray classification task, we find that this subset constitutes nearly 30% of the patient population. Our approach provides a natural way of uncovering this heterogeneity and thus enabling effective human-AI collaboration.

Large language models (LLMs) have facilitated a wide range of applications with distinct service-level objectives (SLOs), from latency-sensitive online tasks like interactive chatbots to throughput-oriented offline workloads like document summarization. The existing deployment model, which dedicates machines to each workload, simplifies SLO management but often leads to poor resource utilization. This paper introduces HyGen, an interference-aware LLM serving system that enables efficient co-location of online and offline workloads while preserving latency requirements. HyGen incorporates two key innovations: (1) performance control mechanisms, including a latency predictor to estimate batch execution time and an SLO-aware profiler to quantify latency interference, and (2) SLO-aware offline scheduling policies that maximize serving throughput and prevent starvation, without compromising online serving latency. Our evaluation on production workloads shows that HyGen achieves up to 3.87x overall throughput and 5.84x offline throughput gains over online and hybrid serving baselines, respectively, while strictly satisfying latency SLOs.

The recent success of Transformer in natural language processing has sparked its use in various domains. In offline reinforcement learning (RL), Decision Transformer (DT) is emerging as a promising model based on Transformer. However, we discovered that the attention module of DT is not appropriate to capture the inherent local dependence pattern in trajectories of RL modeled as a Markov decision process. To overcome the limitations of DT, we propose a novel action sequence predictor, named Decision ConvFormer (DC), based on the architecture of MetaFormer, which is a general structure to process multiple entities in parallel and understand the interrelationship among the multiple entities. DC employs local convolution filtering as the token mixer and can effectively capture the inherent local associations of the RL dataset. In extensive experiments, DC achieved state-of-the-art performance across various standard RL benchmarks while requiring fewer resources. Furthermore, we show that DC better understands the underlying meaning in data and exhibits enhanced generalization capability.

Real-world multichannel time series prediction faces growing demands for efficiency across edge and cloud environments, making channel compression a timely and essential problem. Motivated by success of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) methods, we propose a predictability-aware compression-decompression framework to reduce runtime, lower communication cost, and maintain prediction accuracy across diverse predictors. The core idea involves using a circular periodicity key matrix with orthogonality to capture underlying time series predictability during compression and to mitigate reconstruction errors during decompression by relaxing oversimplified data assumptions. Theoretical and empirical analyses show that the proposed framework is both time-efficient and scalable under a large number of channels. Extensive experiments on six datasets across various predictors demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior overall performance by jointly considering prediction accuracy and runtime, while maintaining strong compatibility with diverse predictors.

Transformers have recently dominated the ASR field. Although able to yield good performance, they involve an autoregressive (AR) decoder to generate tokens one by one, which is computationally inefficient. To speed up inference, non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, e.g. single-step NAR, were designed, to enable parallel generation. However, due to an independence assumption within the output tokens, performance of single-step NAR is inferior to that of AR models, especially with a large-scale corpus. There are two challenges to improving single-step NAR: Firstly to accurately predict the number of output tokens and extract hidden variables; secondly, to enhance modeling of interdependence between output tokens. To tackle both challenges, we propose a fast and accurate parallel transformer, termed Paraformer. This utilizes a continuous integrate-and-fire based predictor to predict the number of tokens and generate hidden variables. A glancing language model (GLM) sampler then generates semantic embeddings to enhance the NAR decoder's ability to model context interdependence. Finally, we design a strategy to generate negative samples for minimum word error rate training to further improve performance. Experiments using the public AISHELL-1, AISHELL-2 benchmark, and an industrial-level 20,000 hour task demonstrate that the proposed Paraformer can attain comparable performance to the state-of-the-art AR transformer, with more than 10x speedup.

The ability to understand physical dynamics is critical for agents to act in the world. Here, we use Counterfactual World Modeling (CWM) to extract vision structures for dynamics understanding. CWM uses a temporally-factored masking policy for masked prediction of video data without annotations. This policy enables highly effective "counterfactual prompting" of the predictor, allowing a spectrum of visual structures to be extracted from a single pre-trained predictor without finetuning on annotated datasets. We demonstrate that these structures are useful for physical dynamics understanding, allowing CWM to achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the Physion benchmark.

Neural architecture search (NAS) with an accuracy predictor that predicts the accuracy of candidate architectures has drawn increasing attention due to its simplicity and effectiveness. Previous works usually employ neural network-based predictors which require more delicate design and are easy to overfit. Considering that most architectures are represented as sequences of discrete symbols which are more like tabular data and preferred by non-neural predictors, in this paper, we study an alternative approach which uses non-neural model for accuracy prediction. Specifically, as decision tree based models can better handle tabular data, we leverage gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) as the predictor for NAS. We demonstrate that the GBDT predictor can achieve comparable (if not better) prediction accuracy than neural network based predictors. Moreover, considering that a compact search space can ease the search process, we propose to prune the search space gradually according to important features derived from GBDT. In this way, NAS can be performed by first pruning the search space and then searching a neural architecture, which is more efficient and effective. Experiments on NASBench-101 and ImageNet demonstrate the effectiveness of using GBDT as predictor for NAS: (1) On NASBench-101, it is 22x, 8x, and 6x more sample efficient than random search, regularized evolution, and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) in finding the global optimum; (2) It achieves 24.2% top-1 error rate on ImageNet, and further achieves 23.4% top-1 error rate on ImageNet when enhanced with search space pruning. Code is provided at https://github.com/renqianluo/GBDT-NAS.

Lightweight vision classification models such as MobileNet, ShuffleNet, and EfficientNet are increasingly deployed in mobile and embedded systems, yet their performance has been predominantly benchmarked on ImageNet. This raises critical questions: Do models that excel on ImageNet also generalize across other domains? How can cross-dataset robustness be systematically quantified? And which architectural elements consistently drive generalization under tight resource constraints? Here, we present the first systematic evaluation of 11 lightweight vision models (2.5M parameters), trained under a fixed 100-epoch schedule across 7 diverse datasets. We introduce the Cross-Dataset Score (xScore), a unified metric that quantifies the consistency and robustness of model performance across diverse visual domains. Our results show that (1) ImageNet accuracy does not reliably predict performance on fine-grained or medical datasets, (2) xScore provides a scalable predictor of mobile model performance that can be estimated from just four datasets, and (3) certain architectural components--such as isotropic convolutions with higher spatial resolution and channel-wise attention--promote broader generalization, while Transformer-based blocks yield little additional benefit, despite incurring higher parameter overhead. This study provides a reproducible framework for evaluating lightweight vision models beyond ImageNet, highlights key design principles for mobile-friendly architectures, and guides the development of future models that generalize robustly across diverse application domains.

Random walks are widely used for mining networks due to the computational efficiency of computing them. For instance, graph representation learning learns a d-dimensional embedding space, so that the nodes that tend to co-occur on random walks (a proxy of being in the same network neighborhood) are close in the embedding space. Specific local network topology (i.e., structure) influences the co-occurrence of nodes on random walks, so random walks of limited length capture only partial topological information, hence diminishing the performance of downstream methods. We explicitly capture all topological neighborhood information and improve performance by introducing orbit adjacencies that quantify the adjacencies of two nodes as co-occurring on a given pair of graphlet orbits, which are symmetric positions on graphlets (small, connected, non-isomorphic, induced subgraphs of a large network). Importantly, we mathematically prove that random walks on up to k nodes capture only a subset of all the possible orbit adjacencies for up to k-node graphlets. Furthermore, we enable orbit adjacency-based analysis of networks by developing an efficient GRaphlet-orbit ADjacency COunter (GRADCO), which exhaustively computes all 28 orbit adjacency matrices for up to four-node graphlets. Note that four-node graphlets suffice, because real networks are usually small-world. In large networks on around 20,000 nodes, GRADCOcomputesthe28matricesinminutes. Onsixrealnetworksfromvarious domains, we compare the performance of node-label predictors obtained by using the network embeddings based on our orbit adjacencies to those based on random walks. We find that orbit adjacencies, which include those unseen by random walks, outperform random walk-based adjacencies, demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of the topological neighborhood information that is unseen by random walks.

One-Shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) algorithms often rely on training a hardware agnostic super-network for a domain specific task. Optimal sub-networks are then extracted from the trained super-network for different hardware platforms. However, training super-networks from scratch can be extremely time consuming and compute intensive especially for large models that rely on a two-stage training process of pre-training and fine-tuning. State of the art pre-trained models are available for a wide range of tasks, but their large sizes significantly limits their applicability on various hardware platforms. We propose InstaTune, a method that leverages off-the-shelf pre-trained weights for large models and generates a super-network during the fine-tuning stage. InstaTune has multiple benefits. Firstly, since the process happens during fine-tuning, it minimizes the overall time and compute resources required for NAS. Secondly, the sub-networks extracted are optimized for the target task, unlike prior work that optimizes on the pre-training objective. Finally, InstaTune is easy to "plug and play" in existing frameworks. By using multi-objective evolutionary search algorithms along with lightly trained predictors, we find Pareto-optimal sub-networks that outperform their respective baselines across different performance objectives such as accuracy and MACs. Specifically, we demonstrate that our approach performs well across both unimodal (ViT and BERT) and multi-modal (BEiT-3) transformer based architectures.

Language models learn a great quantity of factual information during pretraining, and recent work localizes this information to specific model weights like mid-layer MLP weights. In this paper, we find that we can change how a fact is stored in a model by editing weights that are in a different location than where existing methods suggest that the fact is stored. This is surprising because we would expect that localizing facts to specific model parameters would tell us where to manipulate knowledge in models, and this assumption has motivated past work on model editing methods. Specifically, we show that localization conclusions from representation denoising (also known as Causal Tracing) do not provide any insight into which model MLP layer would be best to edit in order to override an existing stored fact with a new one. This finding raises questions about how past work relies on Causal Tracing to select which model layers to edit. Next, we consider several variants of the editing problem, including erasing and amplifying facts. For one of our editing problems, editing performance does relate to localization results from representation denoising, but we find that which layer we edit is a far better predictor of performance. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that better mechanistic understanding of how pretrained language models work may not always translate to insights about how to best change their behavior. Our code is available at https://github.com/google/belief-localization

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance across numerous tasks by using a diverse array of adaptation strategies. However, optimally selecting a model and adaptation strategy under resource constraints is challenging and often requires extensive experimentation. We investigate whether it is possible to accurately predict both performance and cost without expensive trials. We formalize the strategy selection problem for LLMs and introduce COSMOS, a unified prediction framework that efficiently estimates adaptation outcomes at minimal cost. We instantiate and study the capability of our framework via a pair of powerful predictors: embedding-augmented lightweight proxy models to predict fine-tuning performance, and low-sample scaling laws to forecast retrieval-augmented in-context learning. Extensive evaluation across eight representative benchmarks demonstrates that COSMOS achieves high prediction accuracy while reducing computational costs by 92.72% on average, and up to 98.71% in resource-intensive scenarios. Our results show that efficient prediction of adaptation outcomes is not only feasible but can substantially reduce the computational overhead of LLM deployment while maintaining performance standards.

High-dimensional datasets require effective feature selection to improve predictive performance, interpretability, and robustness. We propose and evaluate feature selection methods for tabular datasets based on Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs), which parameterize feature transformations through splines, enabling direct access to interpretable importance measures. We introduce four KAN-based selectors (KAN-L1, KAN-L2, KAN-SI, KAN-KO) and compare them against classical baselines (LASSO, Random Forest, Mutual Information, SVM-RFE) across multiple classification and regression tabular dataset benchmarks. Average (over three retention levels: 20\%, 40\%, and 60\%) F1 scores and R^2 score results reveal that KAN-based selectors, particularly KAN-L2, KAN-L1, KAN-SI, and KAN-KO, are competitive with and sometimes superior to classical baselines in structured and synthetic datasets. However, KAN-L1 is often too aggressive in regression, removing useful features, while KAN-L2 underperforms in classification, where simple coefficient shrinkage misses complex feature interactions. KAN-L2 and KAN-SI provide robust performance on noisy regression datasets and heterogeneous datasets, aligning closely with ensemble predictors. In classification tasks, KAN selectors such as KAN-L1, KAN-KO, and KAN-SI sometimes surpass the other selectors by eliminating redundancy, particularly in high-dimensional multi-class data. Overall, our findings demonstrate that KAN-based feature selection provides a powerful and interpretable alternative to traditional methods, capable of uncovering nonlinear and multivariate feature relevance beyond sparsity or impurity-based measures.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable success in various image generation tasks, but their performance is often limited by the uniform processing of inputs across varying conditions and noise levels. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach that leverages the inherent heterogeneity of the diffusion process. Our method, DiffMoE, introduces a batch-level global token pool that enables experts to access global token distributions during training, promoting specialized expert behavior. To unleash the full potential of the diffusion process, DiffMoE incorporates a capacity predictor that dynamically allocates computational resources based on noise levels and sample complexity. Through comprehensive evaluation, DiffMoE achieves state-of-the-art performance among diffusion models on ImageNet benchmark, substantially outperforming both dense architectures with 3x activated parameters and existing MoE approaches while maintaining 1x activated parameters. The effectiveness of our approach extends beyond class-conditional generation to more challenging tasks such as text-to-image generation, demonstrating its broad applicability across different diffusion model applications. Project Page: https://shiml20.github.io/DiffMoE/

For deployment, neural architecture search should be hardware-aware, in order to satisfy the device-specific constraints (e.g., memory usage, latency and energy consumption) and enhance the model efficiency. Existing methods on hardware-aware NAS collect a large number of samples (e.g., accuracy and latency) from a target device, either builds a lookup table or a latency estimator. However, such approach is impractical in real-world scenarios as there exist numerous devices with different hardware specifications, and collecting samples from such a large number of devices will require prohibitive computational and monetary cost. To overcome such limitations, we propose Hardware-adaptive Efficient Latency Predictor (HELP), which formulates the device-specific latency estimation problem as a meta-learning problem, such that we can estimate the latency of a model's performance for a given task on an unseen device with a few samples. To this end, we introduce novel hardware embeddings to embed any devices considering them as black-box functions that output latencies, and meta-learn the hardware-adaptive latency predictor in a device-dependent manner, using the hardware embeddings. We validate the proposed HELP for its latency estimation performance on unseen platforms, on which it achieves high estimation performance with as few as 10 measurement samples, outperforming all relevant baselines. We also validate end-to-end NAS frameworks using HELP against ones without it, and show that it largely reduces the total time cost of the base NAS method, in latency-constrained settings. Code is available at https://github.com/HayeonLee/HELP.

Recent one-shot Neural Architecture Search algorithms rely on training a hardware-agnostic super-network tailored to a specific task and then extracting efficient sub-networks for different hardware platforms. Popular approaches separate the training of super-networks from the search for sub-networks, often employing predictors to alleviate the computational overhead associated with search. Additionally, certain methods also incorporate the quantization policy within the search space. However, while the quantization policy search for convolutional neural networks is well studied, the extension of these methods to transformers and especially foundation models remains under-explored. In this paper, we demonstrate that by using multi-objective search algorithms paired with lightly trained predictors, we can efficiently search for both the sub-network architecture and the corresponding quantization policy and outperform their respective baselines across different performance objectives such as accuracy, model size, and latency. Specifically, we demonstrate that our approach performs well across both uni-modal (ViT and BERT) and multi-modal (BEiT-3) transformer-based architectures as well as convolutional architectures (ResNet). For certain networks, we demonstrate an improvement of up to 4.80x and 3.44x for latency and model size respectively, without degradation in accuracy compared to the fully quantized INT8 baselines.

Effective generalization in language models depends critically on the diversity of their training data. Yet existing diversity metrics often fall short of this goal, relying on surface-level heuristics that are decoupled from model behavior. This motivates us to ask: What kind of diversity in training data actually drives generalization in language models -- and how can we measure and amplify it? Through large-scale empirical analyses spanning over 300 training runs, carefully controlled for data scale and quality, we show that data diversity can be a strong predictor of generalization in LLM reasoning -- as measured by average model performance on unseen out-of-distribution benchmarks. We introduce G-Vendi, a metric that quantifies diversity via the entropy of model-induced gradients. Despite using a small off-the-shelf proxy model for gradients, G-Vendi consistently outperforms alternative measures, achieving strong correlation (Spearman's rho approx 0.9) with out-of-distribution (OOD) performance on both natural language inference (NLI) and math reasoning tasks. Building on this insight, we present Prismatic Synthesis, a framework for generating diverse synthetic data by targeting underrepresented regions in gradient space. Experimental results show that Prismatic Synthesis consistently improves model performance as we scale synthetic data -- not just on in-distribution test but across unseen, out-of-distribution benchmarks -- significantly outperforming state-of-the-art models that rely on 20 times larger data generator than ours. For example, PrismMath-7B, our model distilled from a 32B LLM, outperforms R1-Distill-Qwen-7B -- the same base model trained on proprietary data generated by 671B R1 -- on 6 out of 7 challenging benchmarks.

Multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable success in image- and region-level remote sensing (RS) image understanding tasks, such as image captioning, visual question answering, and visual grounding. However, existing RS MLLMs lack the pixel-level dialogue capability, which involves responding to user instructions with segmentation masks for specific instances. In this paper, we propose GeoPix, a RS MLLM that extends image understanding capabilities to the pixel level. This is achieved by equipping the MLLM with a mask predictor, which transforms visual features from the vision encoder into masks conditioned on the LLM's segmentation token embeddings. To facilitate the segmentation of multi-scale objects in RS imagery, a class-wise learnable memory module is integrated into the mask predictor to capture and store class-wise geo-context at the instance level across the entire dataset. In addition, to address the absence of large-scale datasets for training pixel-level RS MLLMs, we construct the GeoPixInstruct dataset, comprising 65,463 images and 140,412 instances, with each instance annotated with text descriptions, bounding boxes, and masks. Furthermore, we develop a two-stage training strategy to balance the distinct requirements of text generation and masks prediction in multi-modal multi-task optimization. Extensive experiments verify the effectiveness and superiority of GeoPix in pixel-level segmentation tasks, while also maintaining competitive performance in image- and region-level benchmarks.

Recent research on integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) typically follows two approaches: LLM-centered models, which convert graph data into tokens for LLM processing, and GNN-centered models, which use LLMs to encode text features into node and edge representations for GNN input. LLM-centered models often struggle to capture graph structures effectively, while GNN-centered models compress variable-length textual data into fixed-size vectors, limiting their ability to understand complex semantics. Additionally, GNN-centered approaches require converting tasks into a uniform, manually-designed format, restricting them to classification tasks and preventing language output. To address these limitations, we introduce a new architecture that deeply integrates GNN with LLM, featuring three key innovations: (1) Structure-Aware Transformers, which incorporate GNN's message-passing capabilities directly into LLM's transformer layers, allowing simultaneous processing of textual and structural information and generating outputs from both GNN and LLM; (2) Graph-Text Cross-Attention, which processes full, uncompressed text from graph nodes and edges, ensuring complete semantic integration; and (3) GNN-LLM Twin Predictor, enabling LLM's flexible autoregressive generation alongside GNN's scalable one-pass prediction. GL-Fusion achieves outstand performance on various tasks. Notably, it achieves state-of-the-art performance on OGBN-Arxiv and OGBG-Code2.

Speech tokenization is the task of representing speech signals as a sequence of discrete units. Such representations can be later used for various downstream tasks including automatic speech recognition, text-to-speech, etc. More relevant to this study, such representation serves as the basis of Speech Language Models. In this work, we tackle the task of speech tokenization under the noisy setup and present NAST: Noise Aware Speech Tokenization for Speech Language Models. NAST is composed of three main components: (i) a predictor; (ii) a residual encoder; and (iii) a decoder. We evaluate the efficiency of NAST considering several spoken language modeling tasks and show that NAST is superior to the evaluated baselines across all setups. Lastly, we analyze NAST and show its disentanglement properties and robustness to signal variations in the form of noise, reverberation, pitch-shift, and time-stretch. Code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/ShovalMessica/NAST.

Recently, pre-trained vision-language models (e.g., CLIP) have shown great potential in few-shot learning and attracted a lot of research interest. Although efforts have been made to improve few-shot ability of CLIP, key factors on the effectiveness of existing methods have not been well studied, limiting further exploration of CLIP's potential in few-shot learning. In this paper, we first introduce a unified formulation to analyze CLIP-based few-shot learning methods from a perspective of logit bias, which encourages us to learn an effective logit bias for further improving performance of CLIP-based few-shot learning methods. To this end, we disassemble three key components involved in computation of logit bias (i.e., logit features, logit predictor, and logit fusion) and empirically analyze the effect on performance of few-shot classification. Based on analysis of key components, this paper proposes a novel AMU-Tuning method to learn effective logit bias for CLIP-based few-shot classification. Specifically, our AMU-Tuning predicts logit bias by exploiting the appropriate textbf{A}uxiliary features, which are fed into an efficient feature-initialized linear classifier with textbf{M}ulti-branch training. Finally, an textbf{U}ncertainty-based fusion is developed to incorporate logit bias into CLIP for few-shot classification. The experiments are conducted on several widely used benchmarks, and the results show AMU-Tuning clearly outperforms its counterparts while achieving state-of-the-art performance of CLIP-based few-shot learning without bells and whistles.

Quantum kernels hold great promise for offering computational advantages over classical learners, with the effectiveness of these kernels closely tied to the design of the quantum feature map. However, the challenge of designing effective quantum feature maps for real-world datasets, particularly in the absence of sufficient prior information, remains a significant obstacle. In this study, we present a data-driven approach that automates the design of problem-specific quantum feature maps. Our approach leverages feature-selection techniques to handle high-dimensional data on near-term quantum machines with limited qubits, and incorporates a deep neural predictor to efficiently evaluate the performance of various candidate quantum kernels. Through extensive numerical simulations on different datasets, we demonstrate the superiority of our proposal over prior methods, especially for the capability of eliminating the kernel concentration issue and identifying the feature map with prediction advantages. Our work not only unlocks the potential of quantum kernels for enhancing real-world tasks but also highlights the substantial role of deep learning in advancing quantum machine learning.

There have been many benchmarks for evaluating long-context language models (LCLMs), but developers often rely on synthetic tasks like needle-in-a-haystack (NIAH) or arbitrary subsets of tasks. It remains unclear whether they translate to the diverse downstream applications of LCLMs, and the inconsistency further complicates model comparison. We investigate the underlying reasons behind current practices and find that existing benchmarks often provide noisy signals due to low coverage of applications, insufficient lengths, unreliable metrics, and incompatibility with base models. In this work, we present HELMET (How to Evaluate Long-context Models Effectively and Thoroughly), a comprehensive benchmark encompassing seven diverse, application-centric categories. We also address many issues in previous benchmarks by adding controllable lengths up to 128k tokens, model-based evaluation for reliable metrics, and few-shot prompting for robustly evaluating base models. Consequently, we demonstrate that HELMET offers more reliable and consistent rankings of frontier LCLMs. Through a comprehensive study of 51 LCLMs, we find that (1) synthetic tasks like NIAH are not good predictors of downstream performance; (2) the diverse categories in HELMET exhibit distinct trends and low correlation with each other; and (3) while most LCLMs achieve perfect NIAH scores, open-source models significantly lag behind closed ones when the task requires full-context reasoning or following complex instructions -- the gap widens with increased lengths. Finally, we recommend using our RAG tasks for fast model development, as they are easy to run and more predictive of other downstream performance; ultimately, we advocate for a holistic evaluation across diverse tasks.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) promise more effective information extraction for review-based recommender systems, yet current methods still (i) mine free-form reviews without scope control, producing redundant and noisy representations, (ii) lack principled metrics that link LLM hallucination to downstream effectiveness, and (iii) leave the cost-quality trade-off across model scales largely unexplored. We address these gaps with the Hyper-Adaptive Dual-Stage Semantic Framework (HADSF), a two-stage approach that first induces a compact, corpus-level aspect vocabulary via adaptive selection and then performs vocabulary-guided, explicitly constrained extraction of structured aspect-opinion triples. To assess the fidelity of the resulting representations, we introduce Aspect Drift Rate (ADR) and Opinion Fidelity Rate (OFR) and empirically uncover a nonmonotonic relationship between hallucination severity and rating prediction error. Experiments on approximately 3 million reviews across LLMs spanning 1.5B-70B parameters show that, when integrated into standard rating predictors, HADSF yields consistent reductions in prediction error and enables smaller models to achieve competitive performance in representative deployment scenarios. We release code, data pipelines, and metric implementations to support reproducible research on hallucination-aware, LLM-enhanced explainable recommendation. Code is available at https://github.com/niez233/HADSF

Multi-task learning (MTL) has shown effectiveness in exploiting shared information across tasks to improve generalization. MTL assumes tasks share similarities that can improve performance. In addition, boosting algorithms have demonstrated exceptional performance across diverse learning problems, primarily due to their ability to focus on hard-to-learn instances and iteratively reduce residual errors. This makes them a promising approach for learning multi-task problems. However, real-world MTL scenarios often involve tasks that are not well-aligned (known as outlier or adversarial tasks), which do not share beneficial similarities with others and can, in fact, deteriorate the performance of the overall model. To overcome this challenge, we propose Robust-Multi-Task Gradient Boosting (R-MTGB), a novel boosting framework that explicitly models and adapts to task heterogeneity during training. R-MTGB structures the learning process into three sequential blocks: (1) learning shared patterns, (2) partitioning tasks into outliers and non-outliers with regularized parameters, and (3) fine-tuning task-specific predictors. This architecture enables R-MTGB to automatically detect and penalize outlier tasks while promoting effective knowledge transfer among related tasks. Our method integrates these mechanisms seamlessly within gradient boosting, allowing robust handling of noisy or adversarial tasks without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive experiments on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach successfully isolates outliers, transfers knowledge, and consistently reduces prediction errors for each task individually, and achieves overall performance gains across all tasks. These results highlight robustness, adaptability, and reliable convergence of R-MTGB in challenging MTL environments.

Scaling Text-to-speech (TTS) to large-scale datasets has been demonstrated as an effective method for improving the diversity and naturalness of synthesized speech. At the high level, previous large-scale TTS models can be categorized into either Auto-regressive (AR) based (e.g., VALL-E) or Non-auto-regressive (NAR) based models (e.g., NaturalSpeech 2/3). Although these works demonstrate good performance, they still have potential weaknesses. For instance, AR-based models are plagued by unstable generation quality and slow generation speed; meanwhile, some NAR-based models need phoneme-level duration alignment information, thereby increasing the complexity of data pre-processing, model design, and loss design. In this work, we build upon our previous publication by implementing a simple and efficient non-autoregressive (NAR) TTS framework, termed SimpleSpeech 2. SimpleSpeech 2 effectively combines the strengths of both autoregressive (AR) and non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, offering the following key advantages: (1) simplified data preparation; (2) straightforward model and loss design; and (3) stable, high-quality generation performance with fast inference speed. Compared to our previous publication, we present ({\romannumeral1}) a detailed analysis of the influence of speech tokenizer and noisy label for TTS performance; ({\romannumeral2}) four distinct types of sentence duration predictors; ({\romannumeral3}) a novel flow-based scalar latent transformer diffusion model. With these improvement, we show a significant improvement in generation performance and generation speed compared to our previous work and other state-of-the-art (SOTA) large-scale TTS models. Furthermore, we show that SimpleSpeech 2 can be seamlessly extended to multilingual TTS by training it on multilingual speech datasets. Demos are available on: {https://dongchaoyang.top/SimpleSpeech2\_demo/}.

There is evidence that the driving style of an autonomous vehicle is important to increase the acceptance and trust of the passengers. The driving situation has been found to have a significant influence on human driving behavior. However, current driving style models only partially incorporate driving environment information, limiting the alignment between an agent and the given situation. Therefore, we propose a situation-aware driving style model based on different visual feature encoders pretrained on fleet data, as well as driving behavior predictors, which are adapted to the driving style of a specific driver. Our experiments show that the proposed method outperforms static driving styles significantly and forms plausible situation clusters. Furthermore, we found that feature encoders pretrained on our dataset lead to more precise driving behavior modeling. In contrast, feature encoders pretrained supervised and unsupervised on different data sources lead to more specific situation clusters, which can be utilized to constrain and control the driving style adaptation for specific situations. Moreover, in a real-world setting, where driving style adaptation is happening iteratively, we found the MLP-based behavior predictors achieve good performance initially but suffer from catastrophic forgetting. In contrast, behavior predictors based on situationdependent statistics can learn iteratively from continuous data streams by design. Overall, our experiments show that important information for driving behavior prediction is contained within the visual feature encoder. The dataset is publicly available at huggingface.co/datasets/jHaselberger/SADC-Situation-Awareness-for-Driver-Centric-Driving-Style-Adaptation.

While contrastive approaches of self-supervised learning (SSL) learn representations by minimizing the distance between two augmented views of the same data point (positive pairs) and maximizing views from different data points (negative pairs), recent non-contrastive SSL (e.g., BYOL and SimSiam) show remarkable performance {\it without} negative pairs, with an extra learnable predictor and a stop-gradient operation. A fundamental question arises: why do these methods not collapse into trivial representations? We answer this question via a simple theoretical study and propose a novel approach, DirectPred, that directly sets the linear predictor based on the statistics of its inputs, without gradient training. On ImageNet, it performs comparably with more complex two-layer non-linear predictors that employ BatchNorm and outperforms a linear predictor by 2.5% in 300-epoch training (and 5% in 60-epoch). DirectPred is motivated by our theoretical study of the nonlinear learning dynamics of non-contrastive SSL in simple linear networks. Our study yields conceptual insights into how non-contrastive SSL methods learn, how they avoid representational collapse, and how multiple factors, like predictor networks, stop-gradients, exponential moving averages, and weight decay all come into play. Our simple theory recapitulates the results of real-world ablation studies in both STL-10 and ImageNet. Code is released https://github.com/facebookresearch/luckmatters/tree/master/ssl.

This paper introduces PowerInfer, a high-speed Large Language Model (LLM) inference engine on a personal computer (PC) equipped with a single consumer-grade GPU. The key underlying the design of PowerInfer is exploiting the high locality inherent in LLM inference, characterized by a power-law distribution in neuron activation. This distribution indicates that a small subset of neurons, termed hot neurons, are consistently activated across inputs, while the majority, cold neurons, vary based on specific inputs. PowerInfer exploits such an insight to design a GPU-CPU hybrid inference engine: hot-activated neurons are preloaded onto the GPU for fast access, while cold-activated neurons are computed on the CPU, thus significantly reducing GPU memory demands and CPU-GPU data transfers. PowerInfer further integrates adaptive predictors and neuron-aware sparse operators, optimizing the efficiency of neuron activation and computational sparsity. Evaluation shows that PowerInfer attains an average token generation rate of 13.20 tokens/s, with a peak of 29.08 tokens/s, across various LLMs (including OPT-175B) on a single NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPU, only 18% lower than that achieved by a top-tier server-grade A100 GPU. This significantly outperforms llama.cpp by up to 11.69x while retaining model accuracy.

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

As data becomes the fuel driving technological and economic growth, a fundamental challenge is how to quantify the value of data in algorithmic predictions and decisions. For example, in healthcare and consumer markets, it has been suggested that individuals should be compensated for the data that they generate, but it is not clear what is an equitable valuation for individual data. In this work, we develop a principled framework to address data valuation in the context of supervised machine learning. Given a learning algorithm trained on n data points to produce a predictor, we propose data Shapley as a metric to quantify the value of each training datum to the predictor performance. Data Shapley value uniquely satisfies several natural properties of equitable data valuation. We develop Monte Carlo and gradient-based methods to efficiently estimate data Shapley values in practical settings where complex learning algorithms, including neural networks, are trained on large datasets. In addition to being equitable, extensive experiments across biomedical, image and synthetic data demonstrate that data Shapley has several other benefits: 1) it is more powerful than the popular leave-one-out or leverage score in providing insight on what data is more valuable for a given learning task; 2) low Shapley value data effectively capture outliers and corruptions; 3) high Shapley value data inform what type of new data to acquire to improve the predictor.

Comprehensively understanding and accurately predicting the performance of large language models across diverse downstream tasks has emerged as a pivotal challenge in NLP research. The pioneering scaling law on downstream works demonstrated intrinsic similarities within model families and utilized such similarities for performance prediction. However, they tend to overlook the similarities between model families and only consider design factors listed in the original scaling law. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel framework, Collaborative Performance Prediction (CPP), which significantly enhances prediction accuracy by leveraging the historical performance of various models on downstream tasks and other design factors for both model and task. We also collect a collaborative data sourced from online platforms containing both historical performance and additional design factors. With the support of the collaborative data, CPP not only surpasses traditional scaling laws in predicting the performance of scaled LLMs but also facilitates a detailed analysis of factor importance, an area previously overlooked.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Performance bugs challenge software development, degrading performance and wasting computational resources. Software developers invest substantial effort in addressing these issues. Curating these performance bugs can offer valuable insights to the software engineering research community, aiding in developing new mitigation strategies. However, there is no large-scale open-source performance bugs dataset available. To bridge this gap, we propose PerfCurator, a repository miner that collects performance bug-related commits at scale. PerfCurator employs PcBERT-KD, a 125M parameter BERT model trained to classify performance bug-related commits. Our evaluation shows PcBERT-KD achieves accuracy comparable to 7 billion parameter LLMs but with significantly lower computational overhead, enabling cost-effective deployment on CPU clusters. Utilizing PcBERT-KD as the core component, we deployed PerfCurator on a 50-node CPU cluster to mine GitHub repositories. This extensive mining operation resulted in the construction of a large-scale dataset comprising 114K performance bug-fix commits in Python, 217.9K in C++, and 76.6K in Java. Our results demonstrate that this large-scale dataset significantly enhances the effectiveness of data-driven performance bug detection systems.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.

Sports competitions are widely researched in computer and social science, with the goal of understanding how players act under uncertainty. While there is an abundance of computational work on player metrics prediction based on past performance, very few attempts to incorporate out-of-game signals have been made. Specifically, it was previously unclear whether linguistic signals gathered from players' interviews can add information which does not appear in performance metrics. To bridge that gap, we define text classification tasks of predicting deviations from mean in NBA players' in-game actions, which are associated with strategic choices, player behavior and risk, using their choice of language prior to the game. We collected a dataset of transcripts from key NBA players' pre-game interviews and their in-game performance metrics, totalling in 5,226 interview-metric pairs. We design neural models for players' action prediction based on increasingly more complex aspects of the language signals in their open-ended interviews. Our models can make their predictions based on the textual signal alone, or on a combination with signals from past-performance metrics. Our text-based models outperform strong baselines trained on performance metrics only, demonstrating the importance of language usage for action prediction. Moreover, the models that employ both textual input and past-performance metrics produced the best results. Finally, as neural networks are notoriously difficult to interpret, we propose a method for gaining further insight into what our models have learned. Particularly, we present an LDA-based analysis, where we interpret model predictions in terms of correlated topics. We find that our best performing textual model is most associated with topics that are intuitively related to each prediction task and that better models yield higher correlation with more informative topics.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)

Most popular benchmarks for comparing LLMs rely on a limited set of prompt templates, which may not fully capture the LLMs' abilities and can affect the reproducibility of results on leaderboards. Many recent works empirically verify prompt sensitivity and advocate for changes in LLM evaluation. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the performance distribution across many prompt variants instead of finding a single prompt to evaluate with. We introduce PromptEval, a method for estimating performance across a large set of prompts borrowing strength across prompts and examples to produce accurate estimates under practical evaluation budgets. The resulting distribution can be used to obtain performance quantiles to construct various robust performance metrics (e.g., top 95% quantile or median). We prove that PromptEval consistently estimates the performance distribution and demonstrate its efficacy empirically on three prominent LLM benchmarks: MMLU, BIG-bench Hard, and LMentry. For example, PromptEval can accurately estimate performance quantiles across 100 prompt templates on MMLU with a budget equivalent to two single-prompt evaluations. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/felipemaiapolo/prompt-eval.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Modeling the errors of a speech recognizer can help simulate errorful recognized speech data from plain text, which has proven useful for tasks like discriminative language modeling, improving robustness of NLP systems, where limited or even no audio data is available at train time. Previous work typically considered replicating behavior of GMM-HMM based systems, but the behavior of more modern posterior-based neural network acoustic models is not the same and requires adjustments to the error prediction model. In this work, we extend a prior phonetic confusion based model for predicting speech recognition errors in two ways: first, we introduce a sampling-based paradigm that better simulates the behavior of a posterior-based acoustic model. Second, we investigate replacing the confusion matrix with a sequence-to-sequence model in order to introduce context dependency into the prediction. We evaluate the error predictors in two ways: first by predicting the errors made by a Switchboard ASR system on unseen data (Fisher), and then using that same predictor to estimate the behavior of an unrelated cloud-based ASR system on a novel task. Sampling greatly improves predictive accuracy within a 100-guess paradigm, while the sequence model performs similarly to the confusion matrix.

What makes a good Large Language Model (LLM)? That it performs well on the relevant benchmarks -- which hopefully measure, with some validity, the presence of capabilities that are also challenged in real application. But what makes the model perform well? What gives a model its abilities? We take a recently introduced type of benchmark that is meant to challenge capabilities in a goal-directed, agentive context through self-play of conversational games, and analyse how performance develops as a function of model characteristics like number of parameters, or type of training. We find that while there is a clear relationship between number of parameters and performance, there is still a wide spread of performance points within a given size bracket, which is to be accounted for by training parameters such as fine-tuning data quality and method. From a more practical angle, we also find a certain degree of unpredictability about performance across access methods, possible due to unexposed sampling parameters, and a, very welcome, performance stability against at least moderate weight quantisation during inference.

Scaling data and compute is critical to the success of machine learning. However, scaling demands predictability: we want methods to not only perform well with more compute or data, but also have their performance be predictable from small-scale runs, without running the large-scale experiment. In this paper, we show that value-based off-policy RL methods are predictable despite community lore regarding their pathological behavior. First, we show that data and compute requirements to attain a given performance level lie on a Pareto frontier, controlled by the updates-to-data (UTD) ratio. By estimating this frontier, we can predict this data requirement when given more compute, and this compute requirement when given more data. Second, we determine the optimal allocation of a total resource budget across data and compute for a given performance and use it to determine hyperparameters that maximize performance for a given budget. Third, this scaling behavior is enabled by first estimating predictable relationships between hyperparameters, which is used to manage effects of overfitting and plasticity loss unique to RL. We validate our approach using three algorithms: SAC, BRO, and PQL on DeepMind Control, OpenAI gym, and IsaacGym, when extrapolating to higher levels of data, compute, budget, or performance.

As AI chatbots become ubiquitous, voice interaction presents a compelling way to enable rapid, high-bandwidth communication for both semantic and social signals. This has driven research into Large Audio Models (LAMs) to power voice-native experiences. However, aligning LAM development with user goals requires a clear understanding of user needs and preferences to establish reliable progress metrics. This study addresses these challenges by introducing an interactive approach to evaluate LAMs and collecting 7,500 LAM interactions from 484 participants. Through topic modeling of user queries, we identify primary use cases for audio interfaces. We then analyze user preference rankings and qualitative feedback to determine which models best align with user needs. Finally, we evaluate how static benchmarks predict interactive performance - our analysis reveals no individual benchmark strongly correlates with interactive results (tau leq 0.33 for all benchmarks). While combining multiple coarse-grained features yields modest predictive power (R^2=0.30), only two out of twenty datasets on spoken question answering and age prediction show significantly positive correlations. This suggests a clear need to develop LAM evaluations that better correlate with user preferences.

Large Language Models (LLMs) changed the way we design and interact with software systems. Their ability to process and extract information from text has drastically improved productivity in a number of routine tasks. Developers that want to include these models in their software stack, however, face a dreadful challenge: debugging LLMs' inconsistent behavior across minor variations of the prompt. We therefore introduce two metrics for classification tasks, namely sensitivity and consistency, which are complementary to task performance. First, sensitivity measures changes of predictions across rephrasings of the prompt, and does not require access to ground truth labels. Instead, consistency measures how predictions vary across rephrasings for elements of the same class. We perform an empirical comparison of these metrics on text classification tasks, using them as guideline for understanding failure modes of the LLM. Our hope is that sensitivity and consistency will be helpful to guide prompt engineering and obtain LLMs that balance robustness with performance.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

We introduce MURA, a large dataset of musculoskeletal radiographs containing 40,561 images from 14,863 studies, where each study is manually labeled by radiologists as either normal or abnormal. To evaluate models robustly and to get an estimate of radiologist performance, we collect additional labels from six board-certified Stanford radiologists on the test set, consisting of 207 musculoskeletal studies. On this test set, the majority vote of a group of three radiologists serves as gold standard. We train a 169-layer DenseNet baseline model to detect and localize abnormalities. Our model achieves an AUROC of 0.929, with an operating point of 0.815 sensitivity and 0.887 specificity. We compare our model and radiologists on the Cohen's kappa statistic, which expresses the agreement of our model and of each radiologist with the gold standard. Model performance is comparable to the best radiologist performance in detecting abnormalities on finger and wrist studies. However, model performance is lower than best radiologist performance in detecting abnormalities on elbow, forearm, hand, humerus, and shoulder studies. We believe that the task is a good challenge for future research. To encourage advances, we have made our dataset freely available at https://stanfordmlgroup.github.io/competitions/mura .

Conventional Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS) tend to be inflexible keyword-matchers, and deny gifted candidates a role due to a few minor semantic mismatches. This article describes a new two-step process to design a more refined resume evaluation model based on a small language model (<600M parameters) that is finetuned using GRPO on a custom reward function. To begin with, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) was used to build a solid baseline model. Second, this SFT model was also optimized with the help of Reinforcement Learning (RL) through GRPO under the guidance of a new, multi-component reward function that can holistically assess candidates beyond simple keyword matching. We indicate that the RL application presents a critical problem of reward hacking due to the initial experiments of aggressive penalties, which produces faulty, excessively negative model behaviors. We have overcome this challenge by refining the reward function repeatedly and training hyperparameters into a stable "gentle polishing process" of the reward function. Our resulting GRPO-polished model demonstrates significant real-world efficacy, achieving a final accuracy of 91% on unseen test data. The model shows a strong ability to correctly identify qualified candidates (recall of 0.85 for the 'SELECTED' class) while also showing exceptional precision (1.0), confirming its reliability. These results indicate that a properly executed, two-step fine-tuning procedure can indeed effectively refine a small language model to be able to conduct fine-tuned and human-like candidate scoring, overcoming the drawbacks of both traditional ATS and naive RL usage.

Current rating systems update ratings incrementally and may not always accurately reflect a player's true strength at all times, especially for rapidly improving players or very rusty players. To overcome this, we explore a method to estimate player ratings directly from game moves and clock times. We compiled a benchmark dataset from Lichess, encompassing various time controls and including move sequences and clock times. Our model architecture comprises a CNN to learn positional features, which are then integrated with clock-time data into a bidirectional LSTM, predicting player ratings after each move. The model achieved an MAE of 182 rating points in the test data. Additionally, we applied our model to the 2024 IEEE Big Data Cup Chess Puzzle Difficulty Competition dataset, predicted puzzle ratings and achieved competitive results. This model is the first to use no hand-crafted features to estimate chess ratings and also the first to output a rating prediction for each move. Our method highlights the potential of using move-based rating estimation for enhancing rating systems and potentially other applications such as cheating detection.

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the number of large language models (LLMs), yet efficiently managing and utilizing these vast resources remains a significant challenge. In this work, we explore how to learn compact representations of LLM abilities that can facilitate downstream tasks, such as model routing and performance prediction on new benchmarks. We frame this problem as estimating the probability that a given model will correctly answer a specific query. Inspired by the item response theory (IRT) in psychometrics, we model this probability as a function of three key factors: (i) the model's multi-skill ability vector, (2) the query's discrimination vector that separates models of differing skills, and (3) the query's difficulty scalar. To learn these parameters jointly, we introduce a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) network that couples model- and query-level embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach leads to state-of-the-art performance in both model routing and benchmark accuracy prediction. Moreover, analysis validates that the learned parameters encode meaningful, interpretable information about model capabilities and query characteristics.

Instruction-tuned language models (LM) are able to respond to imperative commands, providing a more natural user interface compared to their base counterparts. In this work, we present Promptriever, the first retrieval model able to be prompted like an LM. To train Promptriever, we curate and release a new instance-level instruction training set from MS MARCO, spanning nearly 500k instances. Promptriever not only achieves strong performance on standard retrieval tasks, but also follows instructions. We observe: (1) large gains (reaching SoTA) on following detailed relevance instructions (+14.3 p-MRR / +3.1 nDCG on FollowIR), (2) significantly increased robustness to lexical choices/phrasing in the query+instruction (+12.9 Robustness@10 on InstructIR), and (3) the ability to perform hyperparameter search via prompting to reliably improve retrieval performance (+1.4 average increase on BEIR). Promptriever demonstrates that retrieval models can be controlled with prompts on a per-query basis, setting the stage for future work aligning LM prompting techniques with information retrieval.

Foundation models are increasingly used in scientific research, but evaluating AI-generated scientific work remains challenging. While expert reviews are costly, large language models (LLMs) as proxy reviewers have proven to be unreliable. To address this, we investigate two automatic evaluation metrics, specifically citation count prediction and review score prediction. We parse all papers of OpenReview and augment each submission with its citation count, reference, and research hypothesis. Our findings reveal that citation count prediction is more viable than review score prediction, and predicting scores is more difficult purely from the research hypothesis than from the full paper. Furthermore, we show that a simple prediction model based solely on title and abstract outperforms LLM-based reviewers, though it still falls short of human-level consistency.

Modern Code Review (MCR) is an informal tool-assisted quality assurance practice. It relies on the asynchronous communication among the authors of code changes and reviewers, who are developers that provide feedback. However, from candidate developers, some are able to provide better feedback than others given a particular context. The selection of reviewers is thus an important task, which can benefit from automated support. Many approaches have been proposed in this direction, using for example data from code review repositories to recommend reviewers. In this paper, we propose the use of team-related features to improve the performance of predictions that are helpful to build code reviewer recommenders, with our target predictions being the identification of reviewers that would participate in a review and the provided amount of feedback. We evaluate the prediction power of these features, which are related to code ownership, workload, and team relationship. This evaluation was done by carefully addressing challenges imposed by the MCR domain, such as temporal aspects of the dataset and unbalanced classes. Moreover, given that it is currently unknown how much past data is needed for building MCR prediction models with acceptable performance, we explore the amount of past data used to build prediction models. Our results show that, individually, features related to code ownership have the best prediction power. However, based on feature selection, we conclude that all proposed features together with lines of code can make the best predictions for both reviewer participation and amount of feedback. Regarding the amount of past data, the timeframes of 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of data produce similar results. Therefore, models can be trained considering short timeframes, thus reducing the computational costs with negligible impact in the prediction performance ...

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

In this paper, we describe our participation in the subtask 1 of CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. We address the Causal Relation Identification (CRI) task by exploiting a set of simple yet complementary techniques for fine-tuning language models (LMs) on a small number of annotated examples (i.e., a few-shot configuration). We follow a prompt-based prediction approach for fine-tuning LMs in which the CRI task is treated as a masked language modeling problem (MLM). This approach allows LMs natively pre-trained on MLM problems to directly generate textual responses to CRI-specific prompts. We compare the performance of this method against ensemble techniques trained on the entire dataset. Our best-performing submission was fine-tuned with only 256 instances per class, 15.7% of the all available data, and yet obtained the second-best precision (0.82), third-best accuracy (0.82), and an F1-score (0.85) very close to what was reported by the winner team (0.86).

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a standardized set of forecasting questions. To address this gap, we introduce ForecastBench: a dynamic benchmark that evaluates the accuracy of ML systems on an automatically generated and regularly updated set of 1,000 forecasting questions. To avoid any possibility of data leakage, ForecastBench is comprised solely of questions about future events that have no known answer at the time of submission. We quantify the capabilities of current ML systems by collecting forecasts from expert (human) forecasters, the general public, and LLMs on a random subset of questions from the benchmark (N=200). While LLMs have achieved super-human performance on many benchmarks, they perform less well here: expert forecasters outperform the top-performing LLM (p-value <0.001). We display system and human scores in a public leaderboard at www.forecastbench.org.

We present CRUXEval (Code Reasoning, Understanding, and eXecution Evaluation), a benchmark consisting of 800 Python functions (3-13 lines). Each function comes with an input-output pair, leading to two natural tasks: input prediction and output prediction. First, we propose a generic recipe for generating our execution benchmark which can be used to create future variation of the benchmark. Second, we evaluate twenty code models on our benchmark and discover that many recent high-scoring models on HumanEval do not show the same improvements on our benchmark. Third, we show that simple CoT and fine-tuning schemes can improve performance on our benchmark but remain far from solving it. The best setup, GPT-4 with chain of thought (CoT), achieves a pass@1 of 75% and 81% on input and output prediction, respectively. In contrast, Code Llama 34B achieves a pass@1 of 50% and 46% on input and output prediction, highlighting the gap between open and closed source models. As no model is close to acing CRUXEval, we provide examples of consistent GPT-4 failures on simple programs as a lens into its code reasoning capabilities and areas for improvement.

Optimizing scientific software is a difficult task because codebases are often large and complex, and performance can depend upon several factors including the algorithm, its implementation, and hardware among others. Causes of poor performance can originate from disparate sources and be difficult to diagnose. Recent years have seen a multitude of work that use large language models (LLMs) to assist in software development tasks. However, these tools are trained to model the distribution of code as text, and are not specifically designed to understand performance aspects of code. In this work, we introduce a reinforcement learning based methodology to align the outputs of code LLMs with performance. This allows us to build upon the current code modeling capabilities of LLMs and extend them to generate better performing code. We demonstrate that our fine-tuned model improves the expected speedup of generated code over base models for a set of benchmark tasks from 0.9 to 1.6 for serial code and 1.9 to 4.5 for OpenMP code.

Foundation models (FMs) trained on electronic health records (EHRs) have shown strong performance on a range of clinical prediction tasks. However, adapting these models to local health systems remains challenging due to limited data availability and resource constraints. In this study, we investigated what these models learn and evaluated the transferability of an FM trained on MIMIC-IV to an institutional EHR dataset at the University of Chicago Medical Center. We assessed their ability to identify outlier patients and examined representation-space patient trajectories in relation to future clinical outcomes. We also evaluated the performance of supervised fine-tuned classifiers on both source and target datasets. Our findings offer insights into the adaptability of FMs across different healthcare systems, highlight considerations for their effective implementation, and provide an empirical analysis of the underlying factors that contribute to their predictive performance.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to forecasting tasks, with some works claiming these systems match or exceed human performance. In this paper, we argue that, as a community, we should be careful about such conclusions as evaluating LLM forecasters presents unique challenges. We identify two broad categories of issues: (1) difficulty in trusting evaluation results due to many forms of temporal leakage, and (2) difficulty in extrapolating from evaluation performance to real-world forecasting. Through systematic analysis and concrete examples from prior work, we demonstrate how evaluation flaws can raise concerns about current and future performance claims. We argue that more rigorous evaluation methodologies are needed to confidently assess the forecasting abilities of LLMs.

Text entry is an essential task in our day-to-day digital interactions. Numerous intelligent features have been developed to streamline this process, making text entry more effective, efficient, and fluid. These improvements include sentence prediction and user personalization. However, as deep learning-based language models become the norm for these advanced features, the necessity for data collection and model fine-tuning increases. These challenges can be mitigated by harnessing the in-context learning capability of large language models such as GPT-3.5. This unique feature allows the language model to acquire new skills through prompts, eliminating the need for data collection and fine-tuning. Consequently, large language models can learn various text prediction techniques. We initially showed that, for a sentence prediction task, merely prompting GPT-3.5 surpassed a GPT-2 backed system and is comparable with a fine-tuned GPT-3.5 model, with the latter two methods requiring costly data collection, fine-tuning and post-processing. However, the task of prompting large language models to specialize in specific text prediction tasks can be challenging, particularly for designers without expertise in prompt engineering. To address this, we introduce Promptor, a conversational prompt generation agent designed to engage proactively with designers. Promptor can automatically generate complex prompts tailored to meet specific needs, thus offering a solution to this challenge. We conducted a user study involving 24 participants creating prompts for three intelligent text entry tasks, half of the participants used Promptor while the other half designed prompts themselves. The results show that Promptor-designed prompts result in a 35% increase in similarity and 22% in coherence over those by designers.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated an impressive ability to generate code for various programming tasks. In many instances, LLMs can generate a correct program for a task when given numerous trials. Consequently, a recent trend is to do large scale sampling of programs using a model and then filtering/ranking the programs based on the program execution on a small number of known unit tests to select one candidate solution. However, these approaches assume that the unit tests are given and assume the ability to safely execute the generated programs (which can do arbitrary dangerous operations such as file manipulations). Both of the above assumptions are impractical in real-world software development. In this paper, we propose CodeRanker, a neural ranker that can predict the correctness of a sampled program without executing it. Our CodeRanker is fault-aware i.e., it is trained to predict different kinds of execution information such as predicting the exact compile/runtime error type (e.g., an IndexError or a TypeError). We show that CodeRanker can significantly increase the pass@1 accuracy of various code generation models (including Codex, GPT-Neo, GPT-J) on APPS, HumanEval and MBPP datasets.

Model selection is a critical step in time series forecasting, traditionally requiring extensive performance evaluations across various datasets. Meta-learning approaches aim to automate this process, but they typically depend on pre-constructed performance matrices, which are costly to build. In this work, we propose to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) as a lightweight alternative for model selection. Our method eliminates the need for explicit performance matrices by utilizing the inherent knowledge and reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Through extensive experiments with LLaMA, GPT and Gemini, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms traditional meta-learning techniques and heuristic baselines, while significantly reducing computational overhead. These findings underscore the potential of LLMs in efficient model selection for time series forecasting.

Understanding player shooting profiles is an essential part of basketball analysis: knowing where certain opposing players like to shoot from can help coaches neutralize offensive gameplans from their opponents; understanding where their players are most comfortable can lead them to developing more effective offensive strategies. An automatic tool that can provide these performance profiles in a timely manner can become invaluable for coaches to maximize both the effectiveness of their game plan as well as the time dedicated to practice and other related activities. Additionally, basketball is dictated by many variables, such as playstyle and game dynamics, that can change the flow of the game and, by extension, player performance profiles. It is crucial that the performance profiles can reflect the diverse playstyles, as well as the fast-changing dynamics of the game. We present a tool that can visualize player performance profiles in a timely manner while taking into account factors such as play-style and game dynamics. Our approach generates interpretable heatmaps that allow us to identify and analyze how non-spatial factors, such as game dynamics or playstyle, affect player performance profiles.

Training models to act as agents that can effectively navigate and perform actions in a complex environment, such as a web browser, has typically been challenging due to lack of training data. Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated some capability to navigate novel environments as agents in a zero-shot or few-shot fashion, purely guided by natural language instructions as prompts. Recent research has also demonstrated LLMs have the capability to exceed their base performance through self-improvement, i.e. fine-tuning on data generated by the model itself. In this work, we explore the extent to which LLMs can self-improve their performance as agents in long-horizon tasks in a complex environment using the WebArena benchmark. In WebArena, an agent must autonomously navigate and perform actions on web pages to achieve a specified objective. We explore fine-tuning on three distinct synthetic training data mixtures and achieve a 31\% improvement in task completion rate over the base model on the WebArena benchmark through a self-improvement procedure. We additionally contribute novel evaluation metrics for assessing the performance, robustness, capabilities, and quality of trajectories of our fine-tuned agent models to a greater degree than simple, aggregate-level benchmark scores currently used to measure self-improvement.

Language models (LMs) exhibit remarkable abilities to solve new tasks from just a few examples or textual instructions, especially at scale. They also, paradoxically, struggle with basic functionality, such as arithmetic or factual lookup, where much simpler and smaller models excel. In this paper, we show that LMs can teach themselves to use external tools via simple APIs and achieve the best of both worlds. We introduce Toolformer, a model trained to decide which APIs to call, when to call them, what arguments to pass, and how to best incorporate the results into future token prediction. This is done in a self-supervised way, requiring nothing more than a handful of demonstrations for each API. We incorporate a range of tools, including a calculator, a Q\&A system, two different search engines, a translation system, and a calendar. Toolformer achieves substantially improved zero-shot performance across a variety of downstream tasks, often competitive with much larger models, without sacrificing its core language modeling abilities.