Daily Papers

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models have transformed image generation with their impressive fidelity and diversity. We show that they also excel in estimating optical flow and monocular depth, surprisingly, without task-specific architectures and loss functions that are predominant for these tasks. Compared to the point estimates of conventional regression-based methods, diffusion models also enable Monte Carlo inference, e.g., capturing uncertainty and ambiguity in flow and depth. With self-supervised pre-training, the combined use of synthetic and real data for supervised training, and technical innovations (infilling and step-unrolled denoising diffusion training) to handle noisy-incomplete training data, and a simple form of coarse-to-fine refinement, one can train state-of-the-art diffusion models for depth and optical flow estimation. Extensive experiments focus on quantitative performance against benchmarks, ablations, and the model's ability to capture uncertainty and multimodality, and impute missing values. Our model, DDVM (Denoising Diffusion Vision Model), obtains a state-of-the-art relative depth error of 0.074 on the indoor NYU benchmark and an Fl-all outlier rate of 3.26\% on the KITTI optical flow benchmark, about 25\% better than the best published method. For an overview see https://diffusion-vision.github.io.

Static word embeddings are ubiquitous in computational social science applications and contribute to practical decision-making in a variety of fields including law and healthcare. However, assessing the statistical uncertainty in downstream conclusions drawn from word embedding statistics has remained challenging. When using only point estimates for embeddings, researchers have no streamlined way of assessing the degree to which their model selection criteria or scientific conclusions are subject to noise due to sparsity in the underlying data used to generate the embeddings. We introduce a method to obtain approximate, easy-to-use, and scalable reconstruction error variance estimates for GloVe (Pennington et al., 2014), one of the most widely used word embedding models, using an analytical approximation to a multivariate normal model. To demonstrate the value of embeddings with variance (GloVe-V), we illustrate how our approach enables principled hypothesis testing in core word embedding tasks, such as comparing the similarity between different word pairs in vector space, assessing the performance of different models, and analyzing the relative degree of ethnic or gender bias in a corpus using different word lists.

We present Mantis Shrimp, a multi-survey deep learning model for photometric redshift estimation that fuses ultra-violet (GALEX), optical (PanSTARRS), and infrared (UnWISE) imagery. Machine learning is now an established approach for photometric redshift estimation, with generally acknowledged higher performance in areas with a high density of spectroscopically identified galaxies over template-based methods. Multiple works have shown that image-based convolutional neural networks can outperform tabular-based color/magnitude models. In comparison to tabular models, image models have additional design complexities: it is largely unknown how to fuse inputs from different instruments which have different resolutions or noise properties. The Mantis Shrimp model estimates the conditional density estimate of redshift using cutout images. The density estimates are well calibrated and the point estimates perform well in the distribution of available spectroscopically confirmed galaxies with (bias = 1e-2), scatter (NMAD = 2.44e-2) and catastrophic outlier rate (eta=17.53%). We find that early fusion approaches (e.g., resampling and stacking images from different instruments) match the performance of late fusion approaches (e.g., concatenating latent space representations), so that the design choice ultimately is left to the user. Finally, we study how the models learn to use information across bands, finding evidence that our models successfully incorporates information from all surveys. The applicability of our model to the analysis of large populations of galaxies is limited by the speed of downloading cutouts from external servers; however, our model could be useful in smaller studies such as generating priors over redshift for stellar population synthesis.

Assessing sampling uncertainty in extremum estimation can be challenging when the asymptotic variance is not analytically tractable. Bootstrap inference offers a feasible solution but can be computationally costly especially when the model is complex. This paper uses iterates of a specially designed stochastic optimization algorithm as draws from which both point estimates and bootstrap standard errors can be computed in a single run. The draws are generated by the gradient and Hessian computed from batches of data that are resampled at each iteration. We show that these draws yield consistent estimates and asymptotically valid frequentist inference for a large class of regular problems. The algorithm provides accurate standard errors in simulation examples and empirical applications at low computational costs. The draws from the algorithm also provide a convenient way to detect data irregularities.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are predominantly evaluated by comparing their relative performance on a large suite of tasks. Most published results on deep RL benchmarks compare point estimates of aggregate performance such as mean and median scores across tasks, ignoring the statistical uncertainty implied by the use of a finite number of training runs. Beginning with the Arcade Learning Environment (ALE), the shift towards computationally-demanding benchmarks has led to the practice of evaluating only a small number of runs per task, exacerbating the statistical uncertainty in point estimates. In this paper, we argue that reliable evaluation in the few run deep RL regime cannot ignore the uncertainty in results without running the risk of slowing down progress in the field. We illustrate this point using a case study on the Atari 100k benchmark, where we find substantial discrepancies between conclusions drawn from point estimates alone versus a more thorough statistical analysis. With the aim of increasing the field's confidence in reported results with a handful of runs, we advocate for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and propose performance profiles to account for the variability in results, as well as present more robust and efficient aggregate metrics, such as interquartile mean scores, to achieve small uncertainty in results. Using such statistical tools, we scrutinize performance evaluations of existing algorithms on other widely used RL benchmarks including the ALE, Procgen, and the DeepMind Control Suite, again revealing discrepancies in prior comparisons. Our findings call for a change in how we evaluate performance in deep RL, for which we present a more rigorous evaluation methodology, accompanied with an open-source library rliable, to prevent unreliable results from stagnating the field.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

Accurately predicting customer Lifetime Value (LTV) is crucial for companies to optimize their revenue strategies. Traditional deep learning models for LTV prediction are effective but typically provide only point estimates and fail to capture model uncertainty in modeling user behaviors. To address this limitation, we propose a novel approach that enhances the architecture of purely neural network models by incorporating the Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) framework. We benchmarked the proposed method using data from one of the most downloaded mobile games in the world, and demonstrated a substantial improvement in predictive Top 5\% Mean Absolute Percentage Error compared to existing state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, our approach provides confidence metric as an extra dimension for performance evaluation across various neural network models, facilitating more informed business decisions.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a key method for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences through the use of reward models. However, traditional reward models typically generate point estimates, which oversimplify the diversity and complexity of human values and preferences. In this paper, we introduce Quantile Reward Models (QRMs), a novel approach to reward modeling that learns a distribution over rewards instead of a single scalar value. Our method uses quantile regression to estimate a full, potentially multimodal distribution over preferences, providing a more powerful and nuanced representation of preferences. This distributional approach can better capture the diversity of human values, addresses label noise, and accommodates conflicting preferences by modeling them as distinct modes in the distribution. Our experimental results show that QRM outperforms comparable traditional point-estimate models on RewardBench. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the additional information provided by the distributional estimates can be utilized in downstream applications, such as risk-aware reinforcement learning, resulting in LLM policies that generate fewer extremely negative responses. Our code and model are released at https://github.com/Nicolinho/QRM.

Several neural-based metrics have been recently proposed to evaluate machine translation quality. However, all of them resort to point estimates, which provide limited information at segment level. This is made worse as they are trained on noisy, biased and scarce human judgements, often resulting in unreliable quality predictions. In this paper, we introduce uncertainty-aware MT evaluation and analyze the trustworthiness of the predicted quality. We combine the COMET framework with two uncertainty estimation methods, Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles, to obtain quality scores along with confidence intervals. We compare the performance of our uncertainty-aware MT evaluation methods across multiple language pairs from the QT21 dataset and the WMT20 metrics task, augmented with MQM annotations. We experiment with varying numbers of references and further discuss the usefulness of uncertainty-aware quality estimation (without references) to flag possibly critical translation mistakes.

Accurate air quality forecasts are vital for public health alerts, exposure assessment, and emissions control. In practice, observational data are often missing in varying proportions and patterns due to collection and transmission issues. These incomplete spatiotemporal records impede reliable inference and risk assessment and can lead to overconfident extrapolation. To address these challenges, we propose an end to end framework, the channel gated learning unit based spatiotemporal bayesian neural field (CGLUBNF). It uses Fourier features with a graph attention encoder to capture multiscale spatial dependencies and seasonal temporal dynamics. A channel gated learning unit, equipped with learnable activations and gated residual connections, adaptively filters and amplifies informative features. Bayesian inference jointly optimizes predictive distributions and parameter uncertainty, producing point estimates and calibrated prediction intervals. We conduct a systematic evaluation on two real world datasets, covering four typical missing data patterns and comparing against five state of the art baselines. CGLUBNF achieves superior prediction accuracy and sharper confidence intervals. In addition, we further validate robustness across multiple prediction horizons and analysis the contribution of extraneous variables. This research lays a foundation for reliable deep learning based spatio-temporal forecasting with incomplete observations in emerging sensing paradigms, such as real world vehicle borne mobile monitoring.

A common problem for agents operating in real-world environments is that the response of an environment to their actions may be non-deterministic and observed through noise. This renders environmental state and progress towards completing a task latent. Despite recent impressive demonstrations of LLM's reasoning abilities on various benchmarks, whether LLMs can build estimates of latent state and leverage them for reasoning has not been explicitly studied. We investigate this problem in the real-world domain of autonomous UI agents. We establish that appropriately prompting LLMs in a zero-shot manner can be formally understood as forming point estimates of latent state in a textual space. In the context of autonomous UI agents we then show that LLMs used in this manner are more than 76% accurate at inferring various aspects of latent state, such as performed (vs. commanded) actions and task progression. Using both public and internal benchmarks and three reasoning methods (zero-shot, CoT-SC & ReAct), we show that LLM-powered agents that explicitly estimate and reason about latent state are able to successfully complete up to 1.6x more tasks than those that do not.

Treatment effect estimation in continuous time is crucial for personalized medicine. However, existing methods for this task are limited to point estimates of the potential outcomes, whereas uncertainty estimates have been ignored. Needless to say, uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable decision-making in medical applications. To fill this gap, we propose a novel Bayesian neural controlled differential equation (BNCDE) for treatment effect estimation in continuous time. In our BNCDE, the time dimension is modeled through a coupled system of neural controlled differential equations and neural stochastic differential equations, where the neural stochastic differential equations allow for tractable variational Bayesian inference. Thereby, for an assigned sequence of treatments, our BNCDE provides meaningful posterior predictive distributions of the potential outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first tailored neural method to provide uncertainty estimates of treatment effects in continuous time. As such, our method is of direct practical value for promoting reliable decision-making in medicine.

Adding linguistic information (syntax or semantics) to neural machine translation (NMT) has mostly focused on using point estimates from pre-trained models. Directly using the capacity of massive pre-trained contextual word embedding models such as BERT (Devlin et al., 2019) has been marginally useful in NMT because effective fine-tuning is difficult to obtain for NMT without making training brittle and unreliable. We augment NMT by extracting dense fine-tuned vector-based linguistic information from BERT instead of using point estimates. Experimental results show that our method of incorporating linguistic information helps NMT to generalize better in a variety of training contexts and is no more difficult to train than conventional Transformer-based NMT.

There has been increasing interest in modeling survival data using deep learning methods in medical research. In this paper, we proposed a Bayesian hierarchical deep neural networks model for modeling and prediction of survival data. Compared with previously studied methods, the new proposal can provide not only point estimate of survival probability but also quantification of the corresponding uncertainty, which can be of crucial importance in predictive modeling and subsequent decision making. The favorable statistical properties of point and uncertainty estimates were demonstrated by simulation studies and real data analysis. The Python code implementing the proposed approach was provided.

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based Self-Explainable Neural Networks (PSENNs), whose predictions rely on the similarity between the input at hand and a set of prototypical representations of the output classes, offering therefore a deep, yet transparent-by-design, architecture. So far, such models have been designed by considering pointwise estimates for the prototypes, which remain fixed after the learning phase of the model. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reformulation of PSENNs, called Prob-PSENN, which replaces point estimates for the prototypes with probability distributions over their values. This provides not only a more flexible framework for an end-to-end learning of prototypes, but can also capture the explanatory uncertainty of the model, which is a missing feature in previous approaches. In addition, since the prototypes determine both the explanation and the prediction, Prob-PSENNs allow us to detect when the model is making uninformed or uncertain predictions, and to obtain valid explanations for them. Our experiments demonstrate that Prob-PSENNs provide more meaningful and robust explanations than their non-probabilistic counterparts, thus enhancing the explainability and reliability of the models.

Reinforcement learning (RL) tackles sequential decision-making problems by creating agents that interacts with their environment. However, existing algorithms often view these problem as static, focusing on point estimates for model parameters to maximize expected rewards, neglecting the stochastic dynamics of agent-environment interactions and the critical role of uncertainty quantification. Our research leverages the Kalman filtering paradigm to introduce a novel and scalable sampling algorithm called Langevinized Kalman Temporal-Difference (LKTD) for deep reinforcement learning. This algorithm, grounded in Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC), efficiently draws samples from the posterior distribution of deep neural network parameters. Under mild conditions, we prove that the posterior samples generated by the LKTD algorithm converge to a stationary distribution. This convergence not only enables us to quantify uncertainties associated with the value function and model parameters but also allows us to monitor these uncertainties during policy updates throughout the training phase. The LKTD algorithm paves the way for more robust and adaptable reinforcement learning approaches.

Tracking a point through a video can be a challenging task due to uncertainty arising from visual obfuscations, such as appearance changes and occlusions. Although current state-of-the-art discriminative models excel in regressing long-term point trajectory estimates -- even through occlusions -- they are limited to regressing to a mean (or mode) in the presence of uncertainty, and fail to capture multi-modality. To overcome this limitation, we introduce Generative Point Tracker (GenPT), a generative framework for modelling multi-modal trajectories. GenPT is trained with a novel flow matching formulation that combines the iterative refinement of discriminative trackers, a window-dependent prior for cross-window consistency, and a variance schedule tuned specifically for point coordinates. We show how our model's generative capabilities can be leveraged to improve point trajectory estimates by utilizing a best-first search strategy on generated samples during inference, guided by the model's own confidence of its predictions. Empirically, we evaluate GenPT against the current state of the art on the standard PointOdyssey, Dynamic Replica, and TAP-Vid benchmarks. Further, we introduce a TAP-Vid variant with additional occlusions to assess occluded point tracking performance and highlight our model's ability to capture multi-modality. GenPT is capable of capturing the multi-modality in point trajectories, which translates to state-of-the-art tracking accuracy on occluded points, while maintaining competitive tracking accuracy on visible points compared to extant discriminative point trackers.

Achieving truly adaptive embodied intelligence requires agents that learn not just by imitating static demonstrations, but by continuously improving through environmental interaction, which is akin to how humans master skills through practice. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have advanced robotic manipulation by leveraging large language models, yet remain fundamentally limited by Supervised Finetuning (SFT): requiring hundreds of demonstrations per task, rigidly memorizing trajectories, and failing to adapt when deployment conditions deviate from training. We introduce EVOLVE-VLA, a test-time training framework enabling VLAs to continuously adapt through environment interaction with minimal or zero task-specific demonstrations. The key technical challenge is replacing oracle reward signals (unavailable at test time) with autonomous feedback. We address this through a learned progress estimator providing dense feedback, and critically, we design our framework to ``tame'' this inherently noisy signal via two mechanisms: (1) an accumulative progress estimation mechanism smoothing noisy point-wise estimates, and (2) a progressive horizon extension strategy enabling gradual policy evolution. EVOLVE-VLA achieves substantial gains: +8.6\% on long-horizon tasks, +22.0\% in 1-shot learning, and enables cross-task generalization -- achieving 20.8\% success on unseen tasks without task-specific demonstrations training (vs. 0\% for pure SFT). Qualitative analysis reveals emergent capabilities absent in demonstrations, including error recovery and novel strategies. This work represents a critical step toward VLAs that truly learn and adapt, moving beyond static imitation toward continuous self-improvements.

While category-level 9DoF object pose estimation has emerged recently, previous correspondence-based or direct regression methods are both limited in accuracy due to the huge intra-category variances in object shape and color, etc. Orthogonal to them, this work presents a category-level object pose and size refiner CATRE, which is able to iteratively enhance pose estimate from point clouds to produce accurate results. Given an initial pose estimate, CATRE predicts a relative transformation between the initial pose and ground truth by means of aligning the partially observed point cloud and an abstract shape prior. In specific, we propose a novel disentangled architecture being aware of the inherent distinctions between rotation and translation/size estimation. Extensive experiments show that our approach remarkably outperforms state-of-the-art methods on REAL275, CAMERA25, and LM benchmarks up to a speed of ~85.32Hz, and achieves competitive results on category-level tracking. We further demonstrate that CATRE can perform pose refinement on unseen category. Code and trained models are available.

Recovering dense and long-range pixel motion in videos is a challenging problem. Part of the difficulty arises from the 3D-to-2D projection process, leading to occlusions and discontinuities in the 2D motion domain. While 2D motion can be intricate, we posit that the underlying 3D motion can often be simple and low-dimensional. In this work, we propose to estimate point trajectories in 3D space to mitigate the issues caused by image projection. Our method, named SpatialTracker, lifts 2D pixels to 3D using monocular depth estimators, represents the 3D content of each frame efficiently using a triplane representation, and performs iterative updates using a transformer to estimate 3D trajectories. Tracking in 3D allows us to leverage as-rigid-as-possible (ARAP) constraints while simultaneously learning a rigidity embedding that clusters pixels into different rigid parts. Extensive evaluation shows that our approach achieves state-of-the-art tracking performance both qualitatively and quantitatively, particularly in challenging scenarios such as out-of-plane rotation.

The quality of foundation models depends heavily on their training data. Consequently, great efforts have been put into dataset curation. Yet most approaches rely on manual tuning of coarse-grained mixtures of large buckets of data, or filtering by hand-crafted heuristics. An approach that is ultimately more scalable (let alone more satisfying) is to learn which data is actually valuable for training. This type of meta-learning could allow more sophisticated, fine-grained, and effective curation. Our proposed DataRater is an instance of this idea. It estimates the value of training on any particular data point. This is done by meta-learning using `meta-gradients', with the objective of improving training efficiency on held out data. In extensive experiments across a range of model scales and datasets, we find that using our DataRater to filter data is highly effective, resulting in significantly improved compute efficiency.

We introduce AllTracker: a model that estimates long-range point tracks by way of estimating the flow field between a query frame and every other frame of a video. Unlike existing point tracking methods, our approach delivers high-resolution and dense (all-pixel) correspondence fields, which can be visualized as flow maps. Unlike existing optical flow methods, our approach corresponds one frame to hundreds of subsequent frames, rather than just the next frame. We develop a new architecture for this task, blending techniques from existing work in optical flow and point tracking: the model performs iterative inference on low-resolution grids of correspondence estimates, propagating information spatially via 2D convolution layers, and propagating information temporally via pixel-aligned attention layers. The model is fast and parameter-efficient (16 million parameters), and delivers state-of-the-art point tracking accuracy at high resolution (i.e., tracking 768x1024 pixels, on a 40G GPU). A benefit of our design is that we can train on a wider set of datasets, and we find that doing so is crucial for top performance. We provide an extensive ablation study on our architecture details and training recipe, making it clear which details matter most. Our code and model weights are available at https://alltracker.github.io .

In this paper, we present a new method for the multiview registration of point cloud. Previous multiview registration methods rely on exhaustive pairwise registration to construct a densely-connected pose graph and apply Iteratively Reweighted Least Square (IRLS) on the pose graph to compute the scan poses. However, constructing a densely-connected graph is time-consuming and contains lots of outlier edges, which makes the subsequent IRLS struggle to find correct poses. To address the above problems, we first propose to use a neural network to estimate the overlap between scan pairs, which enables us to construct a sparse but reliable pose graph. Then, we design a novel history reweighting function in the IRLS scheme, which has strong robustness to outlier edges on the graph. In comparison with existing multiview registration methods, our method achieves 11% higher registration recall on the 3DMatch dataset and ~13% lower registration errors on the ScanNet dataset while reducing ~70% required pairwise registrations. Comprehensive ablation studies are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our designs.

We introduce TAPIP3D, a novel approach for long-term 3D point tracking in monocular RGB and RGB-D videos. TAPIP3D represents videos as camera-stabilized spatio-temporal feature clouds, leveraging depth and camera motion information to lift 2D video features into a 3D world space where camera motion is effectively canceled. TAPIP3D iteratively refines multi-frame 3D motion estimates within this stabilized representation, enabling robust tracking over extended periods. To manage the inherent irregularities of 3D point distributions, we propose a Local Pair Attention mechanism. This 3D contextualization strategy effectively exploits spatial relationships in 3D, forming informative feature neighborhoods for precise 3D trajectory estimation. Our 3D-centric approach significantly outperforms existing 3D point tracking methods and even enhances 2D tracking accuracy compared to conventional 2D pixel trackers when accurate depth is available. It supports inference in both camera coordinates (i.e., unstabilized) and world coordinates, and our results demonstrate that compensating for camera motion improves tracking performance. Our approach replaces the conventional 2D square correlation neighborhoods used in prior 2D and 3D trackers, leading to more robust and accurate results across various 3D point tracking benchmarks. Project Page: https://tapip3d.github.io

Object pose estimation is crucial to robotic perception and typically provides a single-pose estimate. However, a single estimate cannot capture pose uncertainty deriving from visual ambiguity, which can lead to unreliable behavior. Existing pose distribution methods rely heavily on color information, often unavailable in industrial settings. We propose a novel neural network-based method for estimating object pose uncertainty using only 3D colorless data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach that leverages deep learning for pose distribution estimation without relying on RGB input. We validate our method in a real-world bin picking scenario with objects of varying geometric ambiguity. Our current implementation focuses on symmetries in reflection and revolution, but the framework is extendable to full SE(3) pose distribution estimation. Source code available at opde3d.github.io

In this paper, we introduce an SE(3) diffusion model-based point cloud registration framework for 6D object pose estimation in real-world scenarios. Our approach formulates the 3D registration task as a denoising diffusion process, which progressively refines the pose of the source point cloud to obtain a precise alignment with the model point cloud. Training our framework involves two operations: An SE(3) diffusion process and an SE(3) reverse process. The SE(3) diffusion process gradually perturbs the optimal rigid transformation of a pair of point clouds by continuously injecting noise (perturbation transformation). By contrast, the SE(3) reverse process focuses on learning a denoising network that refines the noisy transformation step-by-step, bringing it closer to the optimal transformation for accurate pose estimation. Unlike standard diffusion models used in linear Euclidean spaces, our diffusion model operates on the SE(3) manifold. This requires exploiting the linear Lie algebra se(3) associated with SE(3) to constrain the transformation transitions during the diffusion and reverse processes. Additionally, to effectively train our denoising network, we derive a registration-specific variational lower bound as the optimization objective for model learning. Furthermore, we show that our denoising network can be constructed with a surrogate registration model, making our approach applicable to different deep registration networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our diffusion registration framework presents outstanding pose estimation performance on the real-world TUD-L, LINEMOD, and Occluded-LINEMOD datasets.

Context-sensitive two-point layer 5 pyramidal cells (L5PCs) were discovered as long ago as 1999. However, the potential of this discovery to provide useful neural computation has yet to be demonstrated. Here we show for the first time how a transformative L5PCs-driven deep neural network (DNN), termed the multisensory cooperative computing (MCC) architecture, can effectively process large amounts of heterogeneous real-world audio-visual (AV) data, using far less energy compared to best available 'point' neuron-driven DNNs. A novel highly-distributed parallel implementation on a Xilinx UltraScale+ MPSoC device estimates energy savings up to 245759 times 50000 muJ (i.e., 62% less than the baseline model in a semi-supervised learning setup) where a single synapse consumes 8e^{-5}muJ. In a supervised learning setup, the energy-saving can potentially reach up to 1250x less (per feedforward transmission) than the baseline model. The significantly reduced neural activity in MCC leads to inherently fast learning and resilience against sudden neural damage. This remarkable performance in pilot experiments demonstrates the embodied neuromorphic intelligence of our proposed cooperative L5PC that receives input from diverse neighbouring neurons as context to amplify the transmission of most salient and relevant information for onward transmission, from overwhelmingly large multimodal information utilised at the early stages of on-chip training. Our proposed approach opens new cross-disciplinary avenues for future on-chip DNN training implementations and posits a radical shift in current neuromorphic computing paradigms.

Event-based cameras are ideal for line-based motion estimation, since they predominantly respond to edges in the scene. However, accurately determining the camera displacement based on events continues to be an open problem. This is because line feature extraction and dynamics estimation are tightly coupled when using event cameras, and no precise model is currently available for describing the complex structures generated by lines in the space-time volume of events. We solve this problem by deriving the correct non-linear parametrization of such manifolds, which we term eventails, and demonstrate its application to event-based linear motion estimation, with known rotation from an Inertial Measurement Unit. Using this parametrization, we introduce a novel minimal 5-point solver that jointly estimates line parameters and linear camera velocity projections, which can be fused into a single, averaged linear velocity when considering multiple lines. We demonstrate on both synthetic and real data that our solver generates more stable relative motion estimates than other methods while capturing more inliers than clustering based on spatio-temporal planes. In particular, our method consistently achieves a 100% success rate in estimating linear velocity where existing closed-form solvers only achieve between 23% and 70%. The proposed eventails contribute to a better understanding of spatio-temporal event-generated geometries and we thus believe it will become a core building block of future event-based motion estimation algorithms.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Landslide monitoring is essential for understanding geohazards and mitigating associated risks. However, existing point cloud-based methods typically rely on either geometric or radiometric information and often yield sparse or non-3D displacement estimates. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical partition-based coarse-to-fine approach that fuses 3D point clouds and co-registered RGB images to estimate dense 3D displacement vector fields. We construct patch-level matches using both 3D geometry and 2D image features. These matches are refined via geometric consistency checks, followed by rigid transformation estimation per match. Experimental results on two real-world landslide datasets demonstrate that our method produces 3D displacement estimates with high spatial coverage (79% and 97%) and high accuracy. Deviations in displacement magnitude with respect to external measurements (total station or GNSS observations) are 0.15 m and 0.25 m on the two datasets, respectively, and only 0.07 m and 0.20 m compared to manually derived references. These values are below the average scan resolutions (0.08 m and 0.30 m). Our method outperforms the state-of-the-art method F2S3 in spatial coverage while maintaining comparable accuracy. Our approach offers a practical and adaptable solution for TLS-based landslide monitoring and is extensible to other types of point clouds and monitoring tasks. Our example data and source code are publicly available at https://github.com/zhaoyiww/fusion4landslide.

Recent remote sensing tech advancements drive imagery growth, making oriented object detection rapid development, yet hindered by labor-intensive annotation for high-density scenes. Oriented object detection with point supervision offers a cost-effective solution for densely packed scenes in remote sensing, yet existing methods suffer from inadequate sample assignment and instance confusion due to rigid rule-based designs. To address this, we propose SSP (Semantic-decoupled Spatial Partition), a unified framework that synergizes rule-driven prior injection and data-driven label purification. Specifically, SSP introduces two core innovations: 1) Pixel-level Spatial Partition-based Sample Assignment, which compactly estimates the upper and lower bounds of object scales and mines high-quality positive samples and hard negative samples through spatial partitioning of pixel maps. 2) Semantic Spatial Partition-based Box Extraction, which derives instances from spatial partitions modulated by semantic maps and reliably converts them into bounding boxes to form pseudo-labels for supervising the learning of downstream detectors. Experiments on DOTA-v1.0 and others demonstrate SSP\' s superiority: it achieves 45.78% mAP under point supervision, outperforming SOTA method PointOBB-v2 by 4.10%. Furthermore, when integrated with ORCNN and ReDet architectures, the SSP framework achieves mAP values of 47.86% and 48.50%, respectively. The code is available at https://github.com/antxinyuan/ssp.

In this paper, we present DV-Matcher, a novel learning-based framework for estimating dense correspondences between non-rigidly deformable point clouds. Learning directly from unstructured point clouds without meshing or manual labelling, our framework delivers high-quality dense correspondences, which is of significant practical utility in point cloud processing. Our key contributions are two-fold: First, we propose a scheme to inject prior knowledge from pre-trained vision models into geometric feature learning, which effectively complements the local nature of geometric features with global and semantic information; Second, we propose a novel deformation-based module to promote the extrinsic alignment induced by the learned correspondences, which effectively enhances the feature learning. Experimental results show that our method achieves state-of-the-art results in matching non-rigid point clouds in both near-isometric and heterogeneous shape collection as well as more realistic partial and noisy data.

Representation learning has significantly driven the field to develop pretrained models that can act as a valuable starting point when transferring to new datasets. With the rising demand for reliable machine learning and uncertainty quantification, there is a need for pretrained models that not only provide embeddings but also transferable uncertainty estimates. To guide the development of such models, we propose the Uncertainty-aware Representation Learning (URL) benchmark. Besides the transferability of the representations, it also measures the zero-shot transferability of the uncertainty estimate using a novel metric. We apply URL to evaluate eleven uncertainty quantifiers that are pretrained on ImageNet and transferred to eight downstream datasets. We find that approaches that focus on the uncertainty of the representation itself or estimate the prediction risk directly outperform those that are based on the probabilities of upstream classes. Yet, achieving transferable uncertainty quantification remains an open challenge. Our findings indicate that it is not necessarily in conflict with traditional representation learning goals. Code is provided under https://github.com/mkirchhof/url .

Automated analysis of complex systems based on multiple readouts remains a challenge. Change point detection algorithms are aimed to locating abrupt changes in the time series behaviour of a process. In this paper, we present a novel change point detection algorithm based on Latent Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE). Our method learns a non-linear deep learning transformation of the process into a latent space and estimates a SDE that describes its evolution over time. The algorithm uses the likelihood ratio of the learned stochastic processes in different timestamps to find change points of the process. We demonstrate the detection capabilities and performance of our algorithm on synthetic and real-world datasets. The proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms on the majority of our experiments.

Detailed forest inventories are critical for sustainable and flexible management of forest resources, to conserve various ecosystem services. Modern airborne laser scanners deliver high-density point clouds with great potential for fine-scale forest inventory and analysis, but automatically partitioning those point clouds into meaningful entities like individual trees or tree components remains a challenge. The present study aims to fill this gap and introduces a deep learning framework, termed ForAINet, that is able to perform such a segmentation across diverse forest types and geographic regions. From the segmented data, we then derive relevant biophysical parameters of individual trees as well as stands. The system has been tested on FOR-Instance, a dataset of point clouds that have been acquired in five different countries using surveying drones. The segmentation back-end achieves over 85% F-score for individual trees, respectively over 73% mean IoU across five semantic categories: ground, low vegetation, stems, live branches and dead branches. Building on the segmentation results our pipeline then densely calculates biophysical features of each individual tree (height, crown diameter, crown volume, DBH, and location) and properties per stand (digital terrain model and stand density). Especially crown-related features are in most cases retrieved with high accuracy, whereas the estimates for DBH and location are less reliable, due to the airborne scanning setup.

Recently, the community has made tremendous progress in developing effective methods for point cloud video understanding that learn from massive amounts of labeled data. However, annotating point cloud videos is usually notoriously expensive. Moreover, training via one or only a few traditional tasks (e.g., classification) may be insufficient to learn subtle details of the spatio-temporal structure existing in point cloud videos. In this paper, we propose a Masked Spatio-Temporal Structure Prediction (MaST-Pre) method to capture the structure of point cloud videos without human annotations. MaST-Pre is based on spatio-temporal point-tube masking and consists of two self-supervised learning tasks. First, by reconstructing masked point tubes, our method is able to capture the appearance information of point cloud videos. Second, to learn motion, we propose a temporal cardinality difference prediction task that estimates the change in the number of points within a point tube. In this way, MaST-Pre is forced to model the spatial and temporal structure in point cloud videos. Extensive experiments on MSRAction-3D, NTU-RGBD, NvGesture, and SHREC'17 demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Neural posterior estimation (NPE), a type of amortized variational inference, is a computationally efficient means of constructing probabilistic catalogs of light sources from astronomical images. To date, NPE has not been used to perform inference in models with spatially varying covariates. However, ground-based astronomical images have spatially varying sky backgrounds and point spread functions (PSFs), and accounting for this variation is essential for constructing accurate catalogs of imaged light sources. In this work, we introduce a method of performing NPE with spatially varying backgrounds and PSFs. In this method, we generate synthetic catalogs and semi-synthetic images for these catalogs using randomly sampled PSF and background estimates from existing surveys. Using this data, we train a neural network, which takes an astronomical image and representations of its background and PSF as input, to output a probabilistic catalog. Our experiments with Sloan Digital Sky Survey data demonstrate the effectiveness of NPE in the presence of spatially varying backgrounds and PSFs for light source detection, star/galaxy separation, and flux measurement.

Integrated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models serve as natural counterparts to the well-known integrated GARCH models used for financial returns. However, despite their resemblance, asymptotic theory for ACD is challenging and also not complete, in particular for integrated ACD. Central challenges arise from the facts that (i) integrated ACD processes imply durations with infinite expectation, and (ii) even in the non-integrated case, conventional asymptotic approaches break down due to the randomness in the number of durations within a fixed observation period. Addressing these challenges, we provide here unified asymptotic theory for the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator for ACD models; a unified theory which includes integrated ACD models. Based on the new results, we also provide a novel framework for hypothesis testing in duration models, enabling inference on a key empirical question: whether durations possess a finite or infinite expectation. We apply our results to high-frequency cryptocurrency ETF trading data. Motivated by parameter estimates near the integrated ACD boundary, we assess whether durations between trades in these markets have finite expectation, an assumption often made implicitly in the literature on point process models. Our empirical findings indicate infinite-mean durations for all the five cryptocurrencies examined, with the integrated ACD hypothesis rejected -- against alternatives with tail index less than one -- for four out of the five cryptocurrencies considered.

3D Gaussian Splatting has emerged as an efficient photorealistic novel view synthesis method. However, its reliance on sparse Structure-from-Motion (SfM) point clouds consistently compromises the scene reconstruction quality. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a novel 3D reconstruction framework Gaussian Processes Gaussian Splatting (GP-GS), where a multi-output Gaussian Process model is developed to achieve adaptive and uncertainty-guided densification of sparse SfM point clouds. Specifically, we propose a dynamic sampling and filtering pipeline that adaptively expands the SfM point clouds by leveraging GP-based predictions to infer new candidate points from the input 2D pixels and depth maps. The pipeline utilizes uncertainty estimates to guide the pruning of high-variance predictions, ensuring geometric consistency and enabling the generation of dense point clouds. The densified point clouds provide high-quality initial 3D Gaussians to enhance reconstruction performance. Extensive experiments conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets across various scales validate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed framework.

Survival analysis can sometimes involve individuals who will not experience the event of interest, forming what is known as the cured group. Identifying such individuals is not always possible beforehand, as they provide only right-censored data. Ignoring the presence of the cured group can introduce bias in the final model. This paper presents a method for estimating a semiparametric additive hazards model that accounts for the cured fraction. Unlike regression coefficients in a hazard ratio model, those in an additive hazard model measure hazard differences. The proposed method uses a primal-dual interior point algorithm to obtain constrained maximum penalized likelihood estimates of the model parameters, including the regression coefficients and the baseline hazard, subject to certain non-negativity constraints.

Three-dimensional objects are commonly represented as 3D boxes in a point-cloud. This representation mimics the well-studied image-based 2D bounding-box detection but comes with additional challenges. Objects in a 3D world do not follow any particular orientation, and box-based detectors have difficulties enumerating all orientations or fitting an axis-aligned bounding box to rotated objects. In this paper, we instead propose to represent, detect, and track 3D objects as points. Our framework, CenterPoint, first detects centers of objects using a keypoint detector and regresses to other attributes, including 3D size, 3D orientation, and velocity. In a second stage, it refines these estimates using additional point features on the object. In CenterPoint, 3D object tracking simplifies to greedy closest-point matching. The resulting detection and tracking algorithm is simple, efficient, and effective. CenterPoint achieved state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes benchmark for both 3D detection and tracking, with 65.5 NDS and 63.8 AMOTA for a single model. On the Waymo Open Dataset, CenterPoint outperforms all previous single model method by a large margin and ranks first among all Lidar-only submissions. The code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/tianweiy/CenterPoint.

Zero-shot 6D object pose estimation involves the detection of novel objects with their 6D poses in cluttered scenes, presenting significant challenges for model generalizability. Fortunately, the recent Segment Anything Model (SAM) has showcased remarkable zero-shot transfer performance, which provides a promising solution to tackle this task. Motivated by this, we introduce SAM-6D, a novel framework designed to realize the task through two steps, including instance segmentation and pose estimation. Given the target objects, SAM-6D employs two dedicated sub-networks, namely Instance Segmentation Model (ISM) and Pose Estimation Model (PEM), to perform these steps on cluttered RGB-D images. ISM takes SAM as an advanced starting point to generate all possible object proposals and selectively preserves valid ones through meticulously crafted object matching scores in terms of semantics, appearance and geometry. By treating pose estimation as a partial-to-partial point matching problem, PEM performs a two-stage point matching process featuring a novel design of background tokens to construct dense 3D-3D correspondence, ultimately yielding the pose estimates. Without bells and whistles, SAM-6D outperforms the existing methods on the seven core datasets of the BOP Benchmark for both instance segmentation and pose estimation of novel objects.

We reframe scene flow as the task of estimating a continuous space-time ODE that describes motion for an entire observation sequence, represented with a neural prior. Our method, EulerFlow, optimizes this neural prior estimate against several multi-observation reconstruction objectives, enabling high quality scene flow estimation via pure self-supervision on real-world data. EulerFlow works out-of-the-box without tuning across multiple domains, including large-scale autonomous driving scenes and dynamic tabletop settings. Remarkably, EulerFlow produces high quality flow estimates on small, fast moving objects like birds and tennis balls, and exhibits emergent 3D point tracking behavior by solving its estimated ODE over long-time horizons. On the Argoverse 2 2024 Scene Flow Challenge, EulerFlow outperforms all prior art, surpassing the next-best unsupervised method by more than 2.5x, and even exceeding the next-best supervised method by over 10%.

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

Before the deep learning revolution, many perception algorithms were based on runtime optimization in conjunction with a strong prior/regularization penalty. A prime example of this in computer vision is optical and scene flow. Supervised learning has largely displaced the need for explicit regularization. Instead, they rely on large amounts of labeled data to capture prior statistics, which are not always readily available for many problems. Although optimization is employed to learn the neural network, the weights of this network are frozen at runtime. As a result, these learning solutions are domain-specific and do not generalize well to other statistically different scenarios. This paper revisits the scene flow problem that relies predominantly on runtime optimization and strong regularization. A central innovation here is the inclusion of a neural scene flow prior, which uses the architecture of neural networks as a new type of implicit regularizer. Unlike learning-based scene flow methods, optimization occurs at runtime, and our approach needs no offline datasets -- making it ideal for deployment in new environments such as autonomous driving. We show that an architecture based exclusively on multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) can be used as a scene flow prior. Our method attains competitive -- if not better -- results on scene flow benchmarks. Also, our neural prior's implicit and continuous scene flow representation allows us to estimate dense long-term correspondences across a sequence of point clouds. The dense motion information is represented by scene flow fields where points can be propagated through time by integrating motion vectors. We demonstrate such a capability by accumulating a sequence of lidar point clouds.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

In this paper, we target at the problem of learning a generalizable dynamic radiance field from monocular videos. Different from most existing NeRF methods that are based on multiple views, monocular videos only contain one view at each timestamp, thereby suffering from ambiguity along the view direction in estimating point features and scene flows. Previous studies such as DynNeRF disambiguate point features by positional encoding, which is not transferable and severely limits the generalization ability. As a result, these methods have to train one independent model for each scene and suffer from heavy computational costs when applying to increasing monocular videos in real-world applications. To address this, We propose MonoNeRF to simultaneously learn point features and scene flows with point trajectory and feature correspondence constraints across frames. More specifically, we learn an implicit velocity field to estimate point trajectory from temporal features with Neural ODE, which is followed by a flow-based feature aggregation module to obtain spatial features along the point trajectory. We jointly optimize temporal and spatial features in an end-to-end manner. Experiments show that our MonoNeRF is able to learn from multiple scenes and support new applications such as scene editing, unseen frame synthesis, and fast novel scene adaptation. Codes are available at https://github.com/tianfr/MonoNeRF.

Recent approaches on 3D camera control in video diffusion models (VDMs) often create anchor videos to guide diffusion models as a structured prior by rendering from estimated point clouds following annotated camera trajectories. However, errors inherent in point cloud estimation often lead to inaccurate anchor videos. Moreover, the requirement for extensive camera trajectory annotations further increases resource demands. To address these limitations, we introduce EPiC, an efficient and precise camera control learning framework that automatically constructs high-quality anchor videos without expensive camera trajectory annotations. Concretely, we create highly precise anchor videos for training by masking source videos based on first-frame visibility. This approach ensures high alignment, eliminates the need for camera trajectory annotations, and thus can be readily applied to any in-the-wild video to generate image-to-video (I2V) training pairs. Furthermore, we introduce Anchor-ControlNet, a lightweight conditioning module that integrates anchor video guidance in visible regions to pretrained VDMs, with less than 1% of backbone model parameters. By combining the proposed anchor video data and ControlNet module, EPiC achieves efficient training with substantially fewer parameters, training steps, and less data, without requiring modifications to the diffusion model backbone typically needed to mitigate rendering misalignments. Although being trained on masking-based anchor videos, our method generalizes robustly to anchor videos made with point clouds during inference, enabling precise 3D-informed camera control. EPiC achieves SOTA performance on RealEstate10K and MiraData for I2V camera control task, demonstrating precise and robust camera control ability both quantitatively and qualitatively. Notably, EPiC also exhibits strong zero-shot generalization to video-to-video scenarios.