Daily Papers

Enterprise agents face safety risks that cannot be determined from individual actions alone. Existing safety benchmarks largely evaluate action-local risks, overlooking failures whose safety depends on workflow state. In such state-dependent risks, the same action may be safe in one context but violate policy in another. Hence, we introduce LatentRiskBench for evaluating such state-dependent risks in enterprise settings. It pairs risky trajectories with benign counterparts that share the same terminal action but differ in latent policy-relevant states, requiring models to reconstruct workflow context rather than rely on action-level cues. We also introduce new metrics for state-dependent risk evaluation, including a suite of residual risk (RR) measures. Experiments on the benchmark show that action-level evaluation detects only 0.09 of state-dependent violations, whereas state-level evaluation reaches 0.96. Existing guardrail methods largely overlook such risks unless they are explicitly applied to workflow states. Case studies on a commercial deployed scenario further show that the safety metrics embedded in the benchmark provide a more realistic measure of safety for enterprise agents. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/JingyueCong/LatentRiskBench.

Financial document recognition is often assessed using character and word error rates, although these metrics do not express whether a system preserves the financial facts on which people and organisations act. This paper develops a human-centred, risk-constrained framework for evaluating financial document recognition as evidence recovery and decision support. It defines typed financial facts linked to visible source regions and separates verbatim transcription, deterministic normalization, and business interpretation. A layered quality model covers text, localization, layout, tables, fields, fact correctness, evidence grounding, uncertainty, robustness, and operational performance. Non-compensatory acceptance gates use one-sided uncertainty bounds for critical-field errors, preventing strong aggregate scores from masking failures in amounts, identifiers, signs, periods, or entity associations. Selective automation is formulated as a constrained routing problem that accounts for residual risk, human-review capacity, and review cost. The framework further specifies annotation and adjudication procedures, leakage-resistant benchmark partitions, statistical estimands, subgroup analyses, and a reproducibility card. Formal results establish the limitations of compensatory scoring, the non-zero upper risk bound after zero observed errors, and a loss sensitive decision rule for routing uncertain cases to human review. The contribution is theoretical and methodological; no new model, dataset, or empirical performance result is claimed.

Ensuring the safety and reliability of large language models (LLMs) in clinical practice is critical to prevent patient harm and promote trustworthy healthcare applications of AI. However, LLMs are advancing so rapidly that static safety benchmarks often become obsolete upon publication, yielding only an incomplete and sometimes misleading picture of model trustworthiness. We demonstrate that a Dynamic, Automatic, and Systematic (DAS) red-teaming framework that continuously stress-tests LLMs can reveal significant weaknesses of current LLMs across four safety-critical domains: robustness, privacy, bias/fairness, and hallucination. A suite of adversarial agents is applied to autonomously mutate test cases, identify/evolve unsafe-triggering strategies, and evaluate responses, uncovering vulnerabilities in real time without human intervention. Applying DAS to 15 proprietary and open-source LLMs revealed a stark contrast between static benchmark performance and vulnerability under adversarial pressure. Despite a median MedQA accuracy exceeding 80\%, 94\% of previously correct answers failed our dynamic robustness tests. We observed similarly high failure rates across other domains: privacy leaks were elicited in 86\% of scenarios, cognitive-bias priming altered clinical recommendations in 81\% of fairness tests, and we identified hallucination rates exceeding 66\% in widely used models. Such profound residual risks are incompatible with routine clinical practice. By converting red-teaming from a static checklist into a dynamic stress-test audit, DAS red-teaming offers the surveillance that hospitals/regulators/technology vendors require as LLMs become embedded in patient chatbots, decision-support dashboards, and broader healthcare workflows. Our framework delivers an evolvable, scalable, and reliable safeguard for the next generation of medical AI.

Enterprise AI agents increasingly split a user's request across subagents and merge their results, and each handoff can summarize away, alter or ignore a requirement. We report a preregistered study with synthetic, exactly scorable tasks comparing free-text, structured JSON and signed requirement-manifest handoffs: the orchestrator extracts each requirement as a verbatim quote plus a checkable predicate, code signs the manifest with HMAC-SHA256, and deterministic code verifies the merger's decision. With Qwen3-8B (1,440 trajectories, five threats), signed manifests cut unsafe commits under attack from 69.4% to 9.0% (60.4 pp, 95% CI [51.4, 69.4]) with no net loss of conformant commits relative to structured handoffs. Signing is what defeats in-transit tampering: an unsigned manifest committed violations in 79% of mutated runs, the signed one in none. On identical trajectories the deterministic verifier caught 78.7% of violating decisions versus 59.0% for an LLM checker, with 7% versus 50% false alarms. An oracle manifest removed all remaining unsafe commits: the residual risk comes from extraction errors made before signing. A preregistered pre-signing injection attack confirmed this boundary: one adversarial line raised signed-manifest violations from 14.6% to 37.5% (Qwen3-8B), 11.1% to 63.9% (gpt-oss-20b) and 8.3% to 75.0% (GPT-5.6-luna), and the signature then authenticated the corrupted manifest. Signing protects requirements in transit, not at extraction; the extraction step is the trust boundary.

Flow-matching models generate samples through iterative velocity predictions, but typically do not revisit these predictions using the intermediate representations that produced them. We introduce CorrFlow, a self-correcting flow-matching framework that reuses this information through a lightweight refiner. Under rectified-flow interpolation, the error of the one-step clean prediction equals the realized velocity residual scaled by the noise level. Motivated by this identity, the refiner learns to predict residual corrections from the base model's clean prediction, conditioning, noise level and hidden states from the same forward pass. The correction is added to the base velocity before each sampling update, so subsequent predictions are made from the corrected state. This requires no additional base-model evaluations and only one lightweight refiner evaluation per step. Our theoretical analyses establish conditions under which feature reuse outperforms raw-input affine predictors and refiner training achieves greater residual-risk reduction than continued base-model training under a matched training compute budget. Experiments on class-conditional image generation, text-to-video generation and image-to-video generation show consistent improvements over the corresponding base models, including gains in visual quality and physical consistency. Project Page: https://fogradio.github.io/corrflow-project

Large language models increasingly operate as autonomous agents that select and invoke tools from large registries. We identify a critical gap: when unauthorized tools are visible in an agent's context, models select them in adversarial scenarios -- even when explicitly instructed otherwise. We propose a governed MCP proxy that enforces attribute-based access control (ABAC) at two points: tool discovery, where unauthorized tools are removed from the model's context window, and tool invocation, where a second check blocks any unauthorized call. Across three models (Qwen 2.5 7B, Llama 3.1 8B, Claude Haiku 3.5) and 150 adversarial tasks spanning four attack categories, our proxy reduces unauthorized invocation rate (UIR) to 0% while adding under 50ms median latency. Prompt-based restrictions reduce UIR by only 11--18 percentage points, leaving substantial residual risk. Our results show that architectural enforcement -- not prompting -- is necessary for reliable tool access control in deployed agentic systems.

AI agents increasingly operate inside digital accounts by exercising privileges that users already hold, raising a new control question: whether an existing account entitlement must be exercised manually or may be exercised through a user-authorized automated proxy. We define delegation rights as the revocable, identity-preserving, scope-limited, and mode-specific authority of an account holder to authorize such proxy execution. We develop a three-party incomplete-contracts model with a User, an AI Agent provider, and a Platform. The contested object is not platform ownership, account transferability, data portability, or unrestricted API access, but residual control over the mode of account execution. Under Platform Control, the platform can protect infrastructure, identity systems, privacy boundaries, and third parties, but its discretionary veto weakens the User--Agent coalition's disagreement payoff and depresses relationship-specific investment. Under User Control, hold-up is reduced, but security, privacy, congestion, and third-party risks may remain insufficiently internalized. We then analyze Certified Delegation, under which access protection is conditional on verifiable authorization, revocability, auditability, rate-limit compliance, data minimization, and risk mitigation. Certification is therefore not merely a technical safety screen; it is a conditional allocation of residual control. Illustrative mechanism simulations show how this regime can reduce deadweight loss by restoring delegation incentives while bounding residual risk.

Collisions between cyclists and pedestrians at urban intersections remain a persistent source of injuries, yet few systems attempt real-time warnings to unequipped road users using commodity hardware. We present a prototype collision warning system that runs on a single edge device with a wide-angle fisheye camera, producing audible and visual alerts at 30\,fps. The system makes four contributions. First, we develop a calibration pipeline for ultra-wide fisheye lenses that overcomes corner-detection failure and optimizer divergence through perspective remapping and direct bundle adjustment. Second, we combine fisheye-aware object detection with a closed-form ground-plane projection via a precomputed lookup table. Third, we introduce a design-time conformance simulation with 24 scripted hazard scenarios, stochastic size-aware detection failures, and a latency sweep showing that a first-order kinematic predictor maintains the mean warning budget above the distracted-pedestrian reaction time across realistic camera latencies. Fourth, we formalize the decision layer as a separable, auditable testbench with explicit deployment gates, contestability mechanisms, and a residual risk register. Under conformance testing with fisheye localization error, the selected pipeline configuration achieves 93.3\% sensitivity and 92.3\% specificity, with a mean warning budget of 3.3\,s. The system design was informed by community-aided design workshops. Code and replication scripts are available at https://github.com/mkturkcan/bikeped.

Finetuning on narrow domains has become an essential tool to adapt Large Language Models (LLMs) to specific tasks and to create models with known unusual properties that are useful for research. We show that narrow finetuning creates strong biases in LLM activations that can be interpreted to understand the finetuning domain. These biases can be discovered using simple tools from model diffing - the study of differences between models before and after finetuning. In particular, analyzing activation differences on the first few tokens of random text and steering by adding this difference to the model activations produces text similar to the format and general content of the finetuning data. We demonstrate that these analyses contain crucial information by creating an LLM-based interpretability agent to understand the finetuning domain. With access to the bias, the agent performs significantly better compared to baseline agents using simple prompting. Our analysis spans synthetic document finetuning for false facts, emergent misalignment, subliminal learning, and taboo word guessing game models across different architectures (Gemma, LLaMA, Qwen) and scales (1B to 32B parameters). We suspect these biases reflect overfitting and find that mixing pretraining data into the finetuning corpus largely removes them, though residual risks may remain. Our work (1) demonstrates that narrowly finetuned models have salient traces of their training objective in their activations and suggests ways to improve how they are trained, (2) warns AI safety and interpretability researchers that the common practice of using such models as a proxy for studying broader finetuning (e.g., chat-tuning) might not be realistic, and (3) highlights the need for deeper investigation into the effects of narrow finetuning and development of truly realistic case studies for model-diffing, safety and interpretability research.

Backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures are fragile when they ignore microstructure frictions and reuse evaluation windows during parameter search. We study four liquid perpetuals (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, SOL/USDT, AVAX/USDT) and quantify how execution delay, funding, fees, and slippage can inflate reported performance. We introduce AutoQuant, an execution-centric, alpha-agnostic framework for auditable strategy configuration selection. AutoQuant encodes strict T+1 execution semantics and no-look-ahead funding alignment, runs Bayesian optimization under realistic costs, and applies a two-stage double-screening protocol across held-out rolling windows and a cost-sensitivity grid. We show that fee-only and zero-cost backtests can materially overestimate annualized returns relative to a fully costed configuration, and that double screening tends to reduce drawdowns under the same strict semantics even when returns are not higher. A CSCV/PBO diagnostic indicates substantial residual overfitting risk, motivating AutoQuant as validation and governance infrastructure rather than a claim of persistent alpha. Returns are reported for small-account simulations with linear trading costs and without market impact or capacity modeling.

Text-to-image models trained on large-scale data often inevitably ingest unsafe content. While some people observe input-output amplifications, it remains unclear whether and how training data composition directly drives model output safety or by other factors. We shed light on this question by isolating this variable: we train the same text-to-image model on datasets that differ only in their fraction of unsafe images (0\% to 9.6\%), across several dataset scales (100K to 8M). Then we generate images with the resulting models, and evaluate them with four independent safety classifiers. Output unsafety rises monotonically from 16.6\% at 0\% contamination to 25.5\% at 5\%. A factorial design reveals that the proportion, not the absolute count, of unsafe training images is the operative variable. The 16.6\% irreducible baseline at zero contamination implicates the other components, e.g. frozen text encoder, as a residual safety risk -- confirmed by a text encoder ablation showing that SafeCLIP reduces this floor to 9.6\%, while the dose-response effect persists across all three encoders tested. Critically, no quality degradation in terms of FID, CLIPscore and ImageReward accompanies safety filtering. These results establish that data curation and text encoder safety are complementary and independently effective interventions. At the same time, the remaining level of unsafety poses questions for future research about emerging capabilities and compositionality.

Manipulating next-token probabilities during generation can bypass the safety alignment of large language models. Existing approaches, however, rely on access to model weights or numerical token probabilities and therefore do not apply to interfaces that return only sampled text. Reconstructing probabilities from sampled outputs offers a possible alternative, but finite sampling produces sparse and noisy estimates, while repeating this process at every generation step incurs substantial query costs. Our empirical observations suggest that large distributional changes along successful jailbreak trajectories are concentrated at a small subset of positions, motivating selective control. We introduce , a framework for jailbreaking through text-only continuation interfaces that permit repeated sampling and assistant-prefix continuation. Sample-Based Distribution Reconstruction combines sampled outputs with a prior over unobserved actions to obtain a usable control signal. Risk-Gated Residual Control uses the evolving response prefix to decide when to reconstruct and modify the distribution, concentrating sampling costs at selected positions. Speculative Multi-Token Execution further amortizes target calls by verifying and accepting draft prefixes that require no intervention. Across four target endpoints and three benchmarks, achieves the highest mean score most comparisons against baselines.

Arbitrary slice super-resolution reconstructs isotropic volumes from anisotropic clinical acquisitions by synthesizing intermediate slices at arbitrary scales. However, treating this ill-posed inverse problem as unconstrained residual-based regression risks hallucinating anatomically implausible structures or altering the originally observed data. To address both concerns, this paper presents the Dual-Prior Null-space Learning (DP-NSL) framework, which reformulates the task as a constrained recovery process guided by two complementary priors. A Measurement-Consistent Projection (MCP) enforces a Deterministic Observation Prior: the reconstruction undergoes an exact orthogonal projection that reproduces every acquired slice with zero error, confining all learned details to the unobservable null space. Within this null space, a Mixture-of-Splines (MoS) module imposes a Geometric Continuity Prior by dynamically mixing B-spline experts of different analytic orders, allowing each anatomical region to be modeled with a content-aware level of continuity. To promote spatial coherence, a Local Spatial Consistency Decoder (LSCD) further injects local inductive bias. Experiments on three CT and one MRI benchmark show that DP-NSL outperforms existing approaches while strictly preserving measurement consistency. Code is available at https://github.com/DeepMed-Lab-ECNU/Medical-Image-Reconstruction.

Context can change whether a request is harmful without changing its topic or surface form. We ask whether residual-stream probes distinguish harmful requests from surface-matched benign controls at a useful operating point. Across three 7-8B model families, an activation sensor blocks 95.5-97.7 percent of judge-classified compliant attacks in a taxonomy-selected set. It also blocks 59.6-68.4 percent of XSTest prompts. A fully disjoint audit reconstructs near-ceiling source-contrast AUROC (0.996-0.999), but fixed transfer to matched pairs is weaker: 0.656-0.819 on the guard-selected Twin-n70 subset and 0.590-0.690 on the full Twin-n163 cohort. We test ten axes on the reference family and seven across all families with leakage, hold-out, and permutation controls. On Twin-n163, no axis evaluated without direct pair-boundary fitting reaches the specified numerical threshold. Requiring persistence on that full cohort was added at analysis time. A separately specified 24B/32B extension gives the same result. Pair-trained classifiers weaken under category and generation-batch hold-out and false-block 79.6-100 percent of XSTest at 95 percent in-corpus TPR. At the tested read points, these activation scores behave as broad-risk detectors rather than standalone context adjudicators.

Tactile sensing is particularly valuable for contact-rich robotic manipulation. Recent work has made substantial progress in tactile representation learning for robotic manipulation. However, similar tactile observations can arise from interaction conditions with very different task-risk implications, such as sensor noise, task-necessary variations, and emerging undesirable contact. Without context-grounded risk information, these cases can be ambiguous to downstream policies, leading to unnecessary corrections to benign variations or delayed responses to genuinely risky contact. To address this limitation, we propose Risk-Aware Tactile Encoding (RATE), which learns tactile representations that encode task-conditioned interaction risk. Specifically, history-conditioned prediction captures interaction context, while alert supervision associates this context with task-conditioned risk. The learned risk-aware representation complements conventional tactile features through a lightweight residual adapter. Experiments in both simulation and the real world demonstrate substantial improvements in task success, with controlled ablations confirming the complementary benefits of alert-guided learning and predictive temporal modeling.

Large Transformer models function as Dense Associative Memories (DAMs), retrieving knowledge via high-dimensional attractor dynamics driven by the self-attention mechanism ramsauer2020hopfield, wu2024attention. However, adapting these frozen memory systems to new tasks presents a fundamental ``Plasticity-Stability'' dilemma. Current methods either risk catastrophic interference by modifying synaptic weights directly (e.g., LoRA) hu2021lora or degrade associative capacity by clogging the retrieval buffer with static prompt tokens (e.g., VPT) jia2022vpt. In this work, we propose H-Res (Hierarchical Residual Steering), a mechanism that modulates the effective energy landscape of the Transformer without altering its global equilibrium or expanding its sequence length. By formulating adaptation as a control problem on the activation manifold chen2018neuralode, H-Res learns a state-dependent vector field that steers token trajectories into task-specific basins of attraction. We formally prove that H-Res preserves the attention entropy of the foundation model and facilitates Neural Collapse papyan2020prevalence. Empirically, Manifold Steering outperforms global weight modification by 26\% on associative retrieval tasks and eliminates the computational overhead of prompt-based methods, scaling effectively to structured domains zha2023vtab.

Despite their immense success, deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) can be difficult to optimize and costly to train due to hundreds of layers within the network depth. Conventional convolutional operations are fundamentally limited by their linear nature along with fixed activations, where many layers are needed to learn meaningful patterns in data. Because of the sheer size of these networks, this approach is simply computationally inefficient, and poses overfitting or gradient explosion risks, especially in small datasets. As a result, we introduce a "plug-in" module, called Residual Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (RKAN). Our module is highly compact, so it can be easily added into any stage (level) of traditional deep networks, where it learns to integrate supportive polynomial feature transformations to existing convolutional frameworks. RKAN offers consistent improvements over baseline models in different vision tasks and widely tested benchmarks, accomplishing cutting-edge performance on them.

Candidate-scoring decision models return a probability distribution over a presented set of answers. Public documentation of one such system, Jev, and of an open counterpart, JevAny, describes three training ingredients that determine what these probabilities estimate: soft targets from larger models, a frozen pretrained backbone and temperature calibration. We analyze each ingredient in Gaussian surrogates where the finite-sample risk can be computed exactly. A student trained on teacher targets inherits the teacher's bias, which more student data does not remove and agreement with the teacher does not reveal. A fixed representation lowers the risk only below an explicit sample-size threshold. In a probit model the exact recalibration map is a temperature scaling, which removes all excess risk only when the teacher's coefficient has the correct direction and otherwise leaves a residual that calibration diagnostics do not detect. Under Luce's choice axiom, candidate scores are coherent across refinements of an event if and only if they aggregate by log-sum-exp. On 231,521 credit card complaints from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, where the decision is whether a complaint ends in monetary relief, a student trained on a logistic teacher's probabilities ends at the teacher's decision cost while a student trained on outcomes goes 8% below it, a 30B model read zero-shot remains worse than the teacher after recalibration, and that model departs from the coherence condition by 17.5 decibans. Pretrained representations reduce the labeled data required and calibration corrects the scale of the probabilities, but neither corrects a biased teacher, so the probabilities have to be checked against realized outcomes.

Autonomous systems often must predict the motions of nearby agents from partial and noisy data. This paper asks and answers the question: "can we learn, in real-time, a nonlinear predictive model of another agent's motions?" Our online framework denoises and forecasts such dynamics using a modified sliding-window Hankel Dynamic Mode Decomposition (Hankel-DMD). Partial noisy measurements are embedded into a Hankel matrix, while an associated Page matrix enables singular-value hard thresholding (SVHT) to estimate the effective rank. A Cadzow projection enforces structured low-rank consistency, yielding a denoised trajectory and local noise variance estimates. From this representation, a time-varying Hankel-DMD lifted linear predictor is constructed for multi-step forecasts. The residual analysis provides variance-tracking signals that can support downstream estimators and risk-aware planning. We validate the approach in simulation under Gaussian and heavy-tailed noise, and experimentally on a dynamic crane testbed. Results show that the method achieves stable variance-aware denoising and short-horizon prediction suitable for integration into real-time control frameworks.

Machine unlearning has been extensively studied in response to growing privacy concerns and regulatory requirements. However, auditing whether unlearning algorithms have truly erased the influence of specific data remains an open challenge. The lack of reliable and practical auditing mechanisms can lead to critical privacy risks, such as residual information leakage. This paper initiates a systematic investigation into whether existing unlearning algorithms can truly forget the designated data. We propose the first practical and general-purpose auditing framework for machine unlearning, inspired by the concept of proof of ignorance. Our framework addresses the key practicality limitations of existing methods by eliminating the need for retraining-from-scratch baselines, avoiding the training of large numbers of shadow models, and requiring no intrusive intervention in the original training process. To evaluate the effectiveness of our framework, we first conduct validation experiments to verify its soundness and completeness. We then perform comprehensive experiments across six datasets and ten representative unlearning methods. The results demonstrate that our framework reliably distinguishes between successful and failed unlearning. In particular, we observe that retraining-based and fine-tuning-based methods can achieve effective unlearning, even when the target data remain in the original dataset. In contrast, de-optimization-based methods fail to achieve true unlearning and instead degrade the model's performance. Fisher/Hessian-based methods also fail to unlearn requested data, even formal certification is provided. Moreover, we show that our framework is robust against fake unlearning attempts and generalizes well to large language models.

LLM search agents increasingly rely on tools at inference time, but their trajectories are often constrained by hard limits on both tool calls and generated tokens. Under such dual budgets, better answers require not only stronger models, but also explicit control over which search action should receive the next budget unit and when the accumulated evidence is sufficient to commit a final answer. We study this problem in multi-hop question answering (QA) and formulate it as two-stage inference-time budget control. At search time, our controller assigns each feasible action a task-level Value-of-Information (VOI) score, defined as an operational estimate of marginal task value per unit budget under the current search state and remaining dual budget, and uses this score to choose among retrieval, decomposition, and answer commitment. After search, a selective evidence-grounded finalizer compares the trajectory answer with a refined candidate and rewrites only when the residual error appears to be a low-risk answer-form error. Across four multi-hop QA benchmarks, three LLM backbones, and four budget levels, the method yields positive aggregate gains over four audited baselines under the same hard dual-budget protocol. Ablations show that search-time budget control, especially budget-dependent penalty, provides the main performance gain, while answer-time control helps mainly when the retrieval path is already adequate. These results suggest that inference-time budget control for LLM search agents should govern both how budget is spent during search and how the final answer is committed.

Learning the continuous-time evolution of nonlinear dynamical systems relies on trajectory-based objectives, which require simulating the learned dynamics during training and backpropagating through the numerical scheme, at a cost that grows with the rollout horizon. We show that trajectory-based objectives degenerate as the rollout horizon increases, hindering gradient-based optimization, and that the numerical scheme biases the learned dynamics by constraining the spectrum of the learned Jacobian to its absolute stability region. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Velocity Matching (VM), a simulation-free objective that relies on piecewise-linear interpolation and stochastic collocation, and approximates the velocity population risk to second order in the sampling step. We develop a theoretical framework for velocity-based learning, introducing stability estimates that control trajectory errors in terms of velocity errors, which enable us to establish universal and continuous-time approximation results when the learned velocity field is parameterized by deep neural networks. Building on a bias-variance decomposition of the VM objective, we show that its higher-order approximation of the velocity population risk yields a consistent minimizer; that it relates to the residual of an A-stable continuous-stage Runge-Kutta scheme, thus connecting VM to implicit integration without requiring any implicit solve; and that it implicitly matches the action of the learned Jacobian to that of the true one along the observed trajectories, without requiring access to the underlying velocity field or its Jacobian. Numerical experiments on nonlinear ordinary differential equations and semi-discretized time-dependent partial differential equations show that VM improves accuracy over trajectory-based objectives, while avoiding both the cost of simulation and the instabilities of long rollouts.

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards scales multimodal reasoning, but an outcome reward says how much a trajectory is worth, not how that value should be spread over the decisions that produced it. We introduce Residual Visual Credit Optimization (RVCO), which treats token credit as a conserved routing problem. A controlled visual intervention yields a per-token evidence response; robust within-trajectory coordinates remove incidental scale; and a budgeted entropic router distributes a fixed amount of sequence utility according to perceptual dependence. A residual support path guarantees positive credit at every valid position, and an analytic correction restores the prescribed credit mass exactly. The resulting field is selective, bounded, full-support, and invariant to response-local score shifts, and recovers hard token selection as a limiting case. Across four model families and seven reasoning benchmarks, RVCO improves accuracy over strong RLVR baselines while maintaining late-stage optimization stability, corruption robustness, and competitive training cost. Rewards, rollouts, and the group-relative advantage estimator are unchanged; only the geometry of token-level credit differs.

Existing agent-safety evaluation has focused mainly on externally induced risks. Yet agents may still enter unsafe trajectories under benign conditions. We study this complementary but underexplored setting through the lens of intrinsic risk, where intrinsic failures remain latent, propagate across long-horizon execution, and eventually lead to high-consequence outcomes. To evaluate this setting, we introduce non-attack intrinsic risk auditing and present HINTBench, a benchmark of 629 agent trajectories (523 risky, 106 safe; 33 steps on average) supporting three tasks: risk detection, risk-step localization, and intrinsic failure-type identification. Its annotations are organized under a unified five-constraint taxonomy. Experiments reveal a substantial capability gap: strong LLMs perform well on trajectory-level risk detection, but their performance drops to below 35 Strict-F1 on risk-step localization, while fine-grained failure diagnosis proves even harder. Existing guard models transfer poorly to this setting. These findings establish intrinsic risk auditing as an open challenge for agent safety.

Before changing a deployed AI agent (a stricter safety gate, a new model), organizations must approve the change, starting from existing logs. Extending classical risk analysis to partial records and partial changes to running systems, agent-risk replays logged episodes, assuming nothing else changes and the agent does not anticipate the change. The log settles episodes acting as before, a declared stop value settles stopped ones, and the rest need logged support, a saved-state rerun, or a bound. We prove what logs must record for exact replay and which saved states serve a gate family. For independent episodes, we bound the reruns a decision needs and tolerable drift from live behavior. In a bash sandbox, a 7,200-episode log alone decided neither of two retry gates, which let the agent act after refusals the log never shows. Rerunning only each gate's blocked episodes from saved states reached both live decisions at half the agent calls of a live test sized post hoc for them, given the log. Without per-step harm, a stopping gate's certified harm ceiling rose up to 2.5-fold, since the log hides whether harm preceded the stop. Approval thus needs evidence designed in advance: log fields, saved states, targeted reruns.

Accurate prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events recurrence risk in acute myocardial infarction patients based on postoperative cardiac MRI and associated clinical notes is crucial for precision treatment and personalized intervention. Existing methods primarily focus on risk stratification capability while overlooking the need for intermediate robust reasoning and model interpretability in clinical practice. Moreover, end-to-end risk prediction using LLM/VLM faces significant challenges due to data limitations and modeling complexity. To bridge this gap, we propose CardioCoT, a novel two-stage hierarchical reasoning-enhanced survival analysis framework designed to enhance both model interpretability and predictive performance. In the first stage, we employ an evidence-augmented self-refinement mechanism to guide LLM/VLMs in generating robust hierarchical reasoning trajectories based on associated radiological findings. In the second stage, we integrate the reasoning trajectories with imaging data for risk model training and prediction. CardioCoT demonstrates superior performance in MACE recurrence risk prediction while providing interpretable reasoning processes, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making.

Portfolio risk assessment ordinarily relies on reliable estimates of cross-asset return covariances, which are difficult to obtain in short, high-dimensional panels. We show that firm-level distribution-valued characteristics can instead provide one-sided certificates of portfolio risk. Under maintained links from characteristics to systematic exposures and from exposures to returns, multi-firm Wasserstein-2 dispersion yields a sharp upper bound on systematic portfolio variance and a corresponding bound for standardized returns. A weighted pairwise relaxation produces an objective that is convex under a checkable condition and requires marginal volatility scales but no cross-asset return covariances. With zero firm-specific slack, the common-map scale changes the certified variance reduction but not the normalized allocation, which depends only on observed information geometry. In a 52-firm panel from 2018-2022, an allocation constructed from Qwen3-Embedding-8B news representations lies between the 0.69th and 1.33rd in-sample variance percentiles across four prespecified capped portfolio populations; equal risk weighting lies between the 21.1st and 28.6th percentiles. The lower in-sample variance ranking relative to equal risk also appears across the reported frozen language-model representations. The framework therefore distribution-valued firm information into a coherent risk bound and an implementable allocation rule constructed without cross-asset return covariances.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, where rare but severe failures can result in irreversible harm. However, prevailing evaluation benchmarks often reduce complex social risk to mean-centered scalar scores, thereby obscuring distributional structure, cross-dimensional interactions, and worst-case behavior. This paper introduces Social Harm Analysis via Risk Profiles (SHARP), a framework for multidimensional, distribution-aware evaluation of social harm. SHARP models harm as a multivariate random variable and integrates explicit decomposition into bias, fairness, ethics, and epistemic reliability with a union-of-failures aggregation reparameterized as additive cumulative log-risk. The framework further employs risk-sensitive distributional statistics, with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR95) as a primary metric, to characterize worst-case model behavior. Application of SHARP to eleven frontier LLMs, evaluated on a fixed corpus of n=901 socially sensitive prompts, reveals that models with similar average risk can exhibit more than twofold differences in tail exposure and volatility. Across models, dimension-wise marginal tail behavior varies systematically across harm dimensions, with bias exhibiting the strongest tail severities, epistemic and fairness risks occupying intermediate regimes, and ethical misalignment consistently lower; together, these patterns reveal heterogeneous, model-dependent failure structures that scalar benchmarks conflate. These findings indicate that responsible evaluation and governance of LLMs require moving beyond scalar averages toward multidimensional, tail-sensitive risk profiling.

Risk-budgeted throughput forecasting converts a point forecast of LEO satellite capacity into a conservative bound whose overestimation rate is held at a user-specified budget, so that admission control can act on it safely. We reproduce the state of the art, BG-CFQS, on the three Starlink traces its authors used and on an independent fourth dataset, and report four findings. First, its risk guarantee is reproducible but conditional on the calibration split: under a random split we recover every published quantity, including risk-pass on 3 of 3 datasets, but under a contiguous temporal split, which is what a deployed terminal faces, it holds on 1 of 3. Second, independent of any split, the method cannot serve a risk budget below 0.15, the low end of its candidate quantile set. On all four datasets the achieved rate is identical at budgets of 0.05, 0.10 and 0.15, overshooting by 1.4x to 3.7x at the tightest. Third, static conformal calibration cannot improve a ranking, only shift an operating point; we confirm this exactly on latency spike detection, where online calibration improves AUPRC by up to 51%. Fourth, group-conditional online recalibration splits into two mechanisms. The online part replicates: it tracks the budget within 1% from 0.05 to 0.35, where static calibration is 16 to 21% off. The group-conditional part does not: on three of four datasets, conditioning on any available covariate, including measured serving-satellite geometry, is worse than not conditioning, and our attempt to predict which datasets benefit failed. What is new here is empirical, not algorithmic: we claim the findings, not the methods.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

E-commerce risk management requires aggregating diverse, deeply embedded web data through multi-step, stateful interactions, which traditional scraping methods and most existing Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents cannot handle. These agents are typically limited to single-step tasks and lack the ability to manage dynamic, interactive content critical for effective risk assessment. To address this challenge, we introduce RISK, a novel framework designed to build and deploy GUI agents for this domain. RISK integrates three components: (1) RISK-Data, a dataset of 8,492 single-step and 2,386 multi-step interaction trajectories, collected through a high-fidelity browser framework and a meticulous data curation process; (2) RISK-Bench, a benchmark with 802 single-step and 320 multi-step trajectories across three difficulty levels for standardized evaluation; and (3) RISK-R1, a R1-style reinforcement fine-tuning framework considering four aspects: (i) Output Format Constraint, (ii) Single-step and (iii) Multi-step Level Reward, and (iv) Task Level Reweight. Experiments show that RISK-R1 achieves a 6.8% improvement in offline single-step and an 8.8% improvement in offline multi-step, using only 7.2% of the parameters of the SOTA baseline. Moreover, it attains a top task success rate of 70.5% in online evaluation. RISK provides a scalable, domain-specific solution for automating complex web interactions in e-commerce risk management. The code is available at https://github.com/RenqiChen/RISK-GUI.

LawZero's Scientist AI trains a Predictor toward the Bayesian posterior, with an objective that penalizes inconsistent probabilities among latent explanations. We ask whether current frontier language models, with no such training, are already consistent in this sense zero-shot: do their probability judgments satisfy the law of total probability, P(X)=sum_z P(z)P(X|z), when the latent z must be inferred from records in the context? In separate single-turn calls, models are asked for P(X), for P(z) over the latent's states, and for P(X|z); a causal family applies the same test to P(y|do(x)) and the back-door adjustment. Every query has an exact ground-truth probability, and a subset of items is asked in three wordings to separate persistent incoherence from rewording noise. Across seven models, GPT-6.1 Sol and Claude Opus 5.5 are the most coherent (mean absolute residual 0.08 and 0.12 log-odds, about 2 percentage points). Claude Haiku 5.5, Gemini 3.8 Flash and DeepSeek V4-Pro show persistent incoherence (0.27-0.35 log-odds) that is mostly item-specific rather than a shared offset. Within every model, larger residuals go with larger errors against the truth (Spearman 0.40-0.62), so the residual, which needs no ground truth, flags unreliable answers. Reasoning length does not predict coherence, across models or within a model across rewordings of the same question. Simple consistency checks pass almost everywhere; the failures are specific to reasoning through a latent variable. Code and data: https://github.com/ppotash/latent-coherence

Trading discipline often fails people. Our study tested whether four AI trading agents followed their strategies and risk rules. Offering traders the evidence and an agent evaluation toolkit to separate luck from following the rules, before giving agents meaningful autonomy or capital. Our study analysed 2,627 closed positions from 12 February to 27 August 2026 across the same asset universe and execution conditions. Most positions were simulated against live prices with a 0.09% round-trip fee; 18% involved real Hyperliquid orders. Each position declared a strategy, stop and target, with a limit of five open positions per agent. The fleet finished net positive after fees. Rule adherence was high across all four agents, including the unprofitable one. Profitability tracked how often agents won relative to their break-even win rates. Institutional-style controls ran by default and contained losses through a 29% market drawdown and recovery, with documented exceptions. The discipline held for all four agents. Agents kept 97.5% of gross loss within declared stops, and typical losses closed at declared levels. Declared risk remained stable after losses and broadly stable across calm and volatile months. Twenty-three of 24 runs respected the position limit; logs identify the exception's size and duration. The same live data produced different results across assigned strategies. The trade-log tests can be rerun from the published trade snapshot; regime tests also require the published Bitcoin prices and regime labels. Section 3.5 specifies the stop-breach tolerance. These trade-level results are not account-level returns or proof of a lasting edge. Our study provides an evaluation toolkit to help traders distinguish rule-following from luck before committing capital. For anyone considering allocating capital to agents to trade, discipline should be the entry test, not the only test.

Foundation models are often used as fixed black-box predictors for downstream tasks with limited labeled data, but their predictions may be biased and unsafe to trust blindly. We study this setting through black-box assisted nonparametric regression: a learner observes labeled samples and can query a fixed predictor f_0, while the target f^* is close to f_0 in L_2(P_X) up to an unknown radius δ. We give a finite-sample minimax characterization showing a phase transition at δ_c(n) asymp n^{-β/(2β+d)}, with leading risk min{δ^2, n^{-2β/(2β+d)}}. We then analyze a Safe Residual Estimator: it learns a correction around f_0, initializes the residual head at zero so the initial predictor equals f_0, and uses holdout selection to revert to f_0 when the learned correction is not supported by validation data. Here, "safe" means avoiding negative transfer, i.e., performing worse than the black-box predictor alone. The estimator matches the leading minimax term up to an additive validation-selection cost. Synthetic regression experiments verify the predicted phase transition, while CIFAR-100 with CLIP and AG News with Qwen3-8B provide practice-facing evidence that the same residual-correction tradeoff is useful beyond the formal squared-loss regression setting.

Analyzing outcomes in long-term cancer survivor studies can be complex. The effects of predictors on the failure process may be difficult to assess over longer periods of time, as the commonly used assumption of proportionality of hazards holding over an extended period is often questionable. In this manuscript, we compare seven different survival models that estimate the hazard rate and the effects of proportional and non-proportional covariates. In particular, we focus on an extension of the the multi-resolution hazard (MRH) estimator, combining a non-proportional hierarchical MRH approach with a data-driven pruning algorithm that allows for computational efficiency and produces robust estimates even in times of few observed failures. Using data from a large-scale randomized prostate cancer clinical trial, we examine patterns of biochemical failure and estimate the time-varying effects of androgen deprivation therapy treatment and other covariates. We compare the impact of different modeling strategies and smoothness assumptions on the estimated treatment effect. Our results show that the benefits of treatment diminish over time, possibly with implications for future treatment protocols.

Existing safety benchmarks target general adversarial scenarios but miss finance-specific risks. Financial LLMs face regulatory compliance violations, fraud facilitation, and systemic trust erosion that require targeted evaluation. We introduce FinRED, an expert-guided red-teaming framework for financial LLM safety evaluation developed with financial experts. FinRED uses a novel two-level taxonomy mapping global standards (e.g., FATF and EU DORA) to threats ranging from regulatory evasion to complex fraud, integrated with a scalable pipeline that converts real financial documents into context-rich red-teaming Behavioral Prompts (seeds) through an expert-defined schema. Rigorous expert validation confirms seed plausibility and realism for meaningful LLM safety evaluation. We also provide an expert-validated, finance-specific rubric that goes beyond disclaimer checks, aligns more closely with human experts than static one-size-fits-all rubrics, and reduces critical false negatives from 28 to 12. Aligned with internationally adopted risk-management and information-security standards (e.g., ISO/IEC 27001), FinRED is deployed in South Korea's Financial Security Institute (FSI) regulatory sandbox for generative AI security evaluation in real financial services. To mitigate dual-use risks, the dataset, generation pipeline, prompt template, and evaluation framework are gated for qualified researchers at https://github.com/selectstar-ai/FinRED-paper and https://huggingface.co/datasets/datumo/FinRED.

Fine-tuning foundation models often compromises their robustness to distribution shifts. To remedy this, most robust fine-tuning methods aim to preserve the pre-trained features. However, not all pre-trained features are robust and those methods are largely indifferent to which ones to preserve. We propose dual risk minimization (DRM), which combines empirical risk minimization with worst-case risk minimization, to better preserve the core features of downstream tasks. In particular, we utilize core-feature descriptions generated by LLMs to induce core-based zero-shot predictions which then serve as proxies to estimate the worst-case risk. DRM balances two crucial aspects of model robustness: expected performance and worst-case performance, establishing a new state of the art on various real-world benchmarks. DRM significantly improves the out-of-distribution performance of CLIP ViT-L/14@336 on ImageNet (75.9 to 77.1), WILDS-iWildCam (47.1 to 51.8), and WILDS-FMoW (50.7 to 53.1); opening up new avenues for robust fine-tuning. Our code is available at https://github.com/vaynexie/DRM .

Risk management in finance involves recognizing, evaluating, and addressing financial risks to maintain stability and ensure regulatory compliance. Extracting relevant insights from extensive regulatory documents is a complex challenge requiring advanced retrieval and language models. This paper introduces RiskData, a dataset specifically curated for finetuning embedding models in risk management, and RiskEmbed, a finetuned embedding model designed to improve retrieval accuracy in financial question-answering systems. The dataset is derived from 94 regulatory guidelines published by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) from 1991 to 2024. We finetune a state-of-the-art sentence BERT embedding model to enhance domain-specific retrieval performance typically for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Experimental results demonstrate that RiskEmbed significantly outperforms general-purpose and financial embedding models, achieving substantial improvements in ranking metrics. By open-sourcing both the dataset and the model, we provide a valuable resource for financial institutions and researchers aiming to develop more accurate and efficient risk management AI solutions.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

We propose a credit risk model for portfolios composed of green and brown loans, extending the ASRF framework via a two-factor copula structure. Systematic risk is modeled using potentially skewed distributions, allowing for asymmetric creditworthiness effects, while idiosyncratic risk remains Gaussian. Under a non-uniform exposure setting, we establish convergence in quadratic mean of the portfolio loss to a limit reflecting the distinct characteristics of the two loan segments. Numerical results confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate how value-at-risk is affected by portfolio granularity, default probabilities, factor loadings, and skewness. Our model accommodates differential sensitivity to systematic shocks and offers a tractable basis for further developments in credit risk modeling, including granularity adjustments, CDO pricing, and empirical analysis of green loan portfolios.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce surprisingly sophisticated estimates of their own uncertainty. However, it remains unclear to what extent this expressed confidence is tied to the reasoning, knowledge, or decision making of the model. To test this, we introduce RiskEval: a framework designed to evaluate whether models adjust their abstention policies in response to varying error penalties. Our evaluation of several frontier models reveals a critical dissociation: models are neither cost-aware when articulating their verbal confidence, nor strategically responsive when deciding whether to engage or abstain under high-penalty conditions. Even when extreme penalties render frequent abstention the mathematically optimal strategy, models almost never abstain, resulting in utility collapse. This indicates that calibrated verbal confidence scores may not be sufficient to create trustworthy and interpretable AI systems, as current models lack the strategic agency to convert uncertainty signals into optimal and risk-sensitive decisions.

In staggered treatment-adoption designs, later-treated units are valid controls for an earlier-treated cohort only until their own treatment begins, so the admissible donor set contracts with event time. Fixing the donor pool at the longest horizon discards temporarily eligible donors, whereas re-estimating synthetic-control weights independently at each horizon can make the counterfactual unstable as donor composition changes. We propose Risk-Set Transported Synthetic Control with Difference-in-Differences Adjustment (RT-SC-DiD). For each cohort and event-time horizon, the estimator fits weights on the currently untreated donors while shrinking them toward a transported reference that reallocates the weight of exiting donors to similar surviving donors. A DiD baseline correction removes persistent level differences. We characterize distortion from horizon-by-horizon reoptimization, derive the loading change induced by naive deletion and renormalization, and give a conditional recursive bound for error propagation under an explicitly assumed regularity condition on the transport map. We also introduce donor-support diagnostics and a donor-only placebo procedure for selecting the transport penalty. In an 80-replication pilot comparison and a separate 40-replication-per-value sensitivity analysis, intermediate transport regularization reduces average RMSE relative to independent horizon-specific estimation and strong anchoring. This evidence supports the method's bias-variance motivation but is not a proved guarantee. RT-SC-DiD is intended for settings where later-treated units provide useful short-horizon information and donor support contracts materially over time. Existing staggered synthetic-control and synthetic difference-in-differences methods do not, to our knowledge, explicitly regularize within-cohort weight sequences toward transported references as risk sets contract.

The key of the out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is to generalize invariance from training domains to target domains. The variance risk extrapolation (V-REx) is a practical OOD method, which depends on a domain-level regularization but lacks theoretical verifications about its motivation and utility. This article provides theoretical insights into V-REx by studying a variance-based regularizer. We propose Risk Variance Penalization (RVP), which slightly changes the regularization of V-REx but addresses the theory concerns about V-REx. We provide theoretical explanations and a theory-inspired tuning scheme for the regularization parameter of RVP. Our results point out that RVP discovers a robust predictor. Finally, we experimentally show that the proposed regularizer can find an invariant predictor under certain conditions.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a strong correlation between the transfer risk and the overall performance of transfer learning methods is established, underscoring the significance of transfer risk as a viable indicator of "transferability"; 2. transfer risk is shown to provide a computationally efficient way to identify appropriate source tasks in transfer learning, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the transfer learning approach; 3. additionally, the numerical experiments offer valuable new insights for portfolio management across these different settings.

Finetuning large language models (LLMs) enables user-specific customization but introduces critical safety risks: even a few harmful examples can compromise safety alignment. A common mitigation strategy is to update the model more strongly on examples deemed safe, while downweighting or excluding those flagged as unsafe. However, because safety context can shift within a single example, updating the model equally on both harmful and harmless parts of a response is suboptimal-a coarse treatment we term static safety shaping. In contrast, we propose dynamic safety shaping (DSS), a framework that uses fine-grained safety signals to reinforce learning from safe segments of a response while suppressing unsafe content. To enable such fine-grained control during finetuning, we introduce a key insight: guardrail models, traditionally used for filtering, can be repurposed to evaluate partial responses, tracking how safety risk evolves throughout the response, segment by segment. This leads to the Safety Trajectory Assessment of Response (STAR), a token-level signal that enables shaping to operate dynamically over the training sequence. Building on this, we present STAR-DSS, guided by STAR scores, that robustly mitigates finetuning risks and delivers substantial safety improvements across diverse threats, datasets, and model families-all without compromising capability on intended tasks. We encourage future safety research to build on dynamic shaping principles for stronger mitigation against evolving finetuning risks.

Mobile graphical user interface (GUI) agents have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in automating complex tasks, yet they introduce critical safety risks where a single erroneous action can lead to irreversible consequences. Existing safety mechanisms are primarily reactive, lacking the ability to assess risks before execution. In this paper, we introduce SeerGuard, a consequence-aware safety framework designed to mitigate these risks through pre-execution instruction-level screening and action-level risk assessment. Specifically, the action-level assessment analyzes agent-proposed actions within current GUI states, anticipating likely outcomes to identify risks before they are executed. To enable these capabilities, we construct a unified safety-augmented world model (SAWM) via multi-task learning, integrating semantic next-state prediction with safety risk assessment. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SeerGuard generalizes effectively across diverse mobile GUI agents. On Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct, it increases the safety-utility score from 0.191 to 0.596 at ω=0.8 and reduces the risk-cost score from 0.347 to 0.130 at α=0.8. Further analyses on our SAWM validate the effectiveness of the instruction-level screening, alongside the capability of action risk assessment and next-state prediction.

Robust planning in interactive scenarios requires predicting the uncertain future to make risk-aware decisions. Unfortunately, due to long-tail safety-critical events, the risk is often under-estimated by finite-sampling approximations of probabilistic motion forecasts. This can lead to overconfident and unsafe robot behavior, even with robust planners. Instead of assuming full prediction coverage that robust planners require, we propose to make prediction itself risk-aware. We introduce a new prediction objective to learn a risk-biased distribution over trajectories, so that risk evaluation simplifies to an expected cost estimation under this biased distribution. This reduces the sample complexity of the risk estimation during online planning, which is needed for safe real-time performance. Evaluation results in a didactic simulation environment and on a real-world dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code and a demo are available.

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

Language models are increasingly capable and are being rapidly deployed on a population-level scale. As a result, the safety of these models is increasingly high-stakes. Fortunately, advances in alignment have significantly reduced the likelihood of harmful model outputs. However, when models are queried billions of times in a day, even rare worst-case behaviors will occur. Current safety evaluations focus on capturing the distribution of inputs that yield harmful outputs. These evaluations disregard the probabilistic nature of models and their tail output behavior. To measure this tail risk, we propose a method to efficiently estimate the probability of harmful outputs for any input query. Instead of naive brute-force sampling from the target model, where harmful outputs could be rare, we operationalize importance sampling by creating unsafe versions of the target model. These unsafe versions enable sample-efficient estimation by making harmful outputs more probable. On benchmarks measuring misuse and misalignment, these estimates match brute-force Monte Carlo estimates using 10-20x fewer samples. For example, we can estimate probability of harmful outputs on the order of 10^-4 with just 500 samples. Additionally, we find that these harmfulness estimates can reveal the sensitivity of models to perturbations in model input and predict deployment risks. Our work demonstrates that accurate rare-event estimation is both critical and feasible for safety evaluations. Code is available at https://github.com/rangell/LMTailRisk

With the widespread deployment of Computer-using Agents (CUAs) in complex real-world environments, prevalent long-term risks often lead to severe and irreversible consequences. Most existing guardrails for CUAs adopt a reactive approach, constraining agent behavior only within the current observation space. While these guardrails can prevent immediate short-term risks (e.g., clicking on a phishing link), they cannot proactively avoid long-term risks: seemingly reasonable actions can lead to high-risk consequences that emerge with a delay (e.g., cleaning logs leads to future audits being untraceable), which reactive guardrails cannot identify within the current observation space. To address these limitations, we propose a predictive guardrail approach, with the core idea of aligning predicted future risks with current decisions. Based on this approach, we present SafePred, a predictive guardrail framework for CUAs that establishes a risk-to-decision loop to ensure safe agent behavior. SafePred supports two key abilities: (1) Short- and long-term risk prediction: by using safety policies as the basis for risk prediction, SafePred leverages the prediction capability of the world model to generate semantic representations of both short-term and long-term risks, thereby identifying and pruning actions that lead to high-risk states; (2) Decision optimization: translating predicted risks into actionable safe decision guidances through step-level interventions and task-level re-planning. Extensive experiments show that SafePred significantly reduces high-risk behaviors, achieving over 97.6% safety performance and improving task utility by up to 21.4% compared with reactive baselines.

Block-diffusion language models are served at hand-picked operating points, such as acceptance thresholds, buffer depth, schedule, checkpoint and precision, and each point is chosen by its mean benchmark accuracy. However, a mean does not tell an operator how often a faster configuration fails on prompts that the slower one answers correctly. On the serving engine and its decode traces, the default commit rule already commits every fully resolved block, a static skip rule captures nearly all of the compute that allocation can save, and self-distillation on engine-decoded targets adds speed at unchanged accuracy. Larger speedups come from lower thresholds, which commit tokens that are still uncertain. We therefore present Redline, a finite-sample procedure that selects operating points, hand-picked or learned, from the correctness of their answers on calibration prompts. Redline keeps the reference-relative risk, the joint probability that the reference answers correctly and a candidate configuration does not, within a user-chosen budget with high probability, and deploys the fastest configuration that passes. It speeds up math at a smaller risk budget than code in both model families, and at a budget of ten percent it deploys a LLaDA2 math configuration that commits over a third more tokens in each forward. It also applies without modification to the acceptance rule of speculative decoding and to weight quantization. On the same calibration data, Redline stays within its stated failure probability, whereas each tolerance of a mean-accuracy rule either gains less speed for some model and task or exceeds the risk budget far more often for another. Code is available at https://github.com/js-lee-AI/Redline.

Clinical early warning systems built on irregularly sampled medical time series (ISMTS) from electronic health records must deliver continuous risk scores for patient triage as well as interpretable rationales that clinicians can verify. Large language models (LLMs) are uniquely positioned for both, deriving risk from their output probabilities and rationales from their medical knowledge. However, we find that conventional LLM reasoning collapses graded risk into overconfident predictions and thereby undermines the cross-patient comparability on which triage depends. We refer to this failure mode as risk polarization and identify two underlying behaviors: early commitment to a single outcome, and one-sided reasoning that focuses only on the evidence for that outcome. To address this, we propose TRIAGE, a framework that trains an LLM to reason dialectically over competing clinical outcomes by eliciting outcome-specific rationales. This dialectical formulation mitigates risk polarization, enabling a single LLM to jointly provide explicit clinical rationales and risk scores comparable across patients. Across five ISMTS benchmarks, TRIAGE improves mean AUPRC by 17.0% and reduces mean calibration error by 82.8% relative to the competitive LLM-based baseline, while surpassing the strongest ISMTS baseline by 3.5% in mean AUPRC.

A wide range of statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed for survival analysis with competing risks, where the occurrence of one event (i.e., cancer death) precludes the occurrence of other events (i.e., cardiovascular disease death). Despite these methodological advances, their systematic evaluation and adoption are limited by the lack of comprehensive, reproducible and extensible benchmarking frameworks. We developed an open-source benchmarking framework for competing risks models that enables their systematic comparison across multiple datasets under different aspects of performance; calibration, discrimination, overall prediction error and clinical utility. We additionally introduce an extension of SHAP for competing risks, allowing model-agnostic interpretability of covariates contributions over time. All our code is publicly available via GitHub:https://github.com/BBolosSierra/CompRisksBenchmark

Machine unlearning (MU) seeks to eliminate the influence of specific training examples from deployed models. As large language models (LLMs) become widely used, managing risks arising from insufficient forgetting or utility loss is increasingly crucial. Current MU techniques lack effective mechanisms for evaluating and controlling these risks, hindering the selection of strategies that appropriately balance safety and utility, and raising trust concerns surrounding the "right to be forgotten." To address these issues, we propose FROC, a unified framework with Risk-Optimized Control for machine unlearning in LLMs. FROC is built around a conformal-style risk-control formulation that expresses a user-specified risk budget on unlearning behavior. This probability-based constraint enables FROC to compare MU strategies, identify feasible operating regions, and guide hyperparameter selection according to desired trade-offs between forgetting sufficiency and utility preservation. To operationalize this constraint, FROC introduces a smoothly varying continuous risk model that aggregates forgetting deficiency and utility degradation into a single configuration-level score. Building on conformal risk analysis, FROC computes (1) the Conformal Unlearning Risk (CUR), a data-driven estimated value on the probability that forgotten samples continue to influence model predictions, and (2) risk-controlled configuration sets, which identify unlearning hyperparameters that are valid under the specified risk budget. Experiments across multiple LLM MU methods demonstrate that FROC produces stable, interpretable risk landscapes and reveals consistent relationships between unlearning configurations, semantic shift, and utility impact. FROC reframes MU as a controllable, risk-aware process and offers a practical foundation for managing unlearning behavior in large-scale LLM deployments.

Background and Objective: Clinicians expect recurrence risk to climb with cancer severity. In a UK multicentre trial, an unconstrained XGBoost model learnt that higher tumour stage and carcinoma in situ predicted lower recurrence risk, and discrimination, calibration, and SHAP were all blind to it. We developed a counterfactual testing framework to detect this inversion and a monotonic-constraint framework to remove it without hurting performance. Methods: BOXIT enrolled 472 patients with protocol-mandated cystoscopy across 51 UK sites (2007-2012); 435 had at least two years' follow-up (153 recurrences, 35.2%). We developed a counterfactual direction test and a monotonic-constraint correction, with constraint directions drawn from the EORTC and EAU risk systems, and evaluated both against unconstrained XGBoost and logistic regression on 18 predictors (seven directed) over 50 cross-validation folds. The test worsened each patient on one directed feature at a time to check whether risk fell; SHAP direction and calibration were also assessed. Key Findings and Limitations: Tumour stage and carcinoma in situ were associated with lower recurrence, opposite to medical intuition; the unconstrained model reversed carcinoma in situ counterfactuals in 90.2% of cases and stage in 74.3%. Discrimination (ΔAUC 0.005, p=0.47), calibration, and SHAP magnitude were all blind to the inversion. Monotonic constraints eliminated every violation at no cost to discrimination (0.723 vs 0.718) and outperformed EORTC (p=8.9e-16). Limitations: single trial, internal-external validation only. Conclusions and Clinical Implications: A model that had learned this inversion passed every conventional check. A counterfactual direction test, run as a single refit with pre-specified monotonic constraints, catches this failure at no cost to performance and should be routine before clinical deployment.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Agent skill libraries are becoming routable software assets: a retrieved skill can contribute instructions, scripts, resource bindings, and execution assumptions to an agent. This makes retrieval failures more specific than broad irrelevance. A system can find the right capability family yet expose the wrong same-capability representative. We study this failure as same-capability risk-exposure retrieval. Each benchmark unit pairs a helpful skill with a query-specific risky sibling that shares the capability family but differs on an execution-controlling contract, such as the required resource, precondition, procedure, or artifact. We introduce SameCapRisk-Bench, an auditable benchmark with 1,190 skill-risk units and 1,686 evaluation query cases: 694 marked-sibling units under public library pressure and 496 hard role-flip units where the same two skills swap helpful/risky roles across paired queries. The release records admission evidence, cue/leakage checks, source hashes, family relations, and fixed candidate pools. The benchmark reports helpful ranking together with harmful sibling rate (HSR@K), the top-K exposure of the marked risky sibling. On this benchmark, public SkillRouter, SkillRet, and R3-Skill retrieve helpful skills at high Recall@3 (0.848--0.888) but also expose marked risky siblings frequently (HSR@3 0.346--0.372). A fully public score-and-cluster pipeline lowers HSR@3 to 0.128--0.182, with Recall@3 of 0.713--0.776. Under a benchmark-trained reference scorer, public text-cluster and controlled resolvers reach HSR@3 0.012 and 0.007; the latter attains Recall@3 0.833. Skill retrieval should therefore report both capability matching and same-family risk exposure, with HSR serving as a targeted exposure certificate for fixed skill libraries.

This paper introduces RiskCards, a framework for structured assessment and documentation of risks associated with an application of language models. As with all language, text generated by language models can be harmful, or used to bring about harm. Automating language generation adds both an element of scale and also more subtle or emergent undesirable tendencies to the generated text. Prior work establishes a wide variety of language model harms to many different actors: existing taxonomies identify categories of harms posed by language models; benchmarks establish automated tests of these harms; and documentation standards for models, tasks and datasets encourage transparent reporting. However, there is no risk-centric framework for documenting the complexity of a landscape in which some risks are shared across models and contexts, while others are specific, and where certain conditions may be required for risks to manifest as harms. RiskCards address this methodological gap by providing a generic framework for assessing the use of a given language model in a given scenario. Each RiskCard makes clear the routes for the risk to manifest harm, their placement in harm taxonomies, and example prompt-output pairs. While RiskCards are designed to be open-source, dynamic and participatory, we present a "starter set" of RiskCards taken from a broad literature survey, each of which details a concrete risk presentation. Language model RiskCards initiate a community knowledge base which permits the mapping of risks and harms to a specific model or its application scenario, ultimately contributing to a better, safer and shared understanding of the risk landscape.

Risk disclosures in SEC filings describe potential adverse events but rarely quantify their likelihood, limiting their usefulness for probabilistic analysis. A central obstacle is the absence of large-scale, risk-level supervision linking disclosed risks to realized outcomes. We introduce a fully automated data generation pipeline that converts qualitative SEC risk disclosures into temporally grounded supervision using only public data. For each filing, the pipeline generates firm-specific, time-bounded risk queries from the Risk Factors section and labels them by automatically resolving outcomes against subsequent disclosures. Using this dataset of risk queries and outcomes grounded in SEC filings, we train a compact large language model to estimate the probability that a disclosed risk will materialize within a specified horizon. Despite its modest size, the resulting model substantially improves over pretrained and heuristic baselines, and outperforms frontier general-purpose models, including GPT-5, on probabilistic accuracy and calibration. More broadly, this work demonstrates that Foresight Learning enables scalable and fully automated training of domain-specific expert models using only raw, chronological, in-domain text -- without proprietary data, external corpora, or manual annotation. The resulting models achieve frontier-level performance while remaining deployable on a single GPU. This result suggests a general pathway for learning calibrated, decision-relevant signals from naturally occurring enterprise documents. To support transparency and reproducibility, we open-source the evaluation dataset used in this study. Evaluation Data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/sec_risk_questions_test_set Data Generation Platform: https://lightningrod.ai/ SDK: https://github.com/lightning-rod-labs/lightningrod-python-sdk

Foundation models are routinely fine-tuned for use in particular domains, yet safety assessments are typically conducted only on base models, implicitly assuming that safety properties persist through downstream adaptation. We test this assumption by analyzing the safety behavior of 100 models, including widely deployed fine-tunes in the medical and legal domains as well as controlled adaptations of open foundation models alongside their bases. Across general-purpose and domain-specific safety benchmarks, we find that benign fine-tuning induces large, heterogeneous, and often contradictory changes in measured safety: models frequently improve on some instruments while degrading on others, with substantial disagreement across evaluations. These results show that safety behavior is not stable under ordinary downstream adaptation, raising critical questions about governance and deployment practices centered on base-model evaluations. Without explicit re-evaluation of fine-tuned models in deployment-relevant contexts, such approaches fall short of adequately managing downstream risk, overlooking practical sources of harm -- failures that are especially consequential in high-stakes settings and challenge current accountability paradigms.

Detecting AI risks becomes more challenging as stronger models emerge and find novel methods such as Alignment Faking to circumvent these detection attempts. Inspired by how risky behaviors in humans (i.e., illegal activities that may hurt others) are sometimes guided by strongly-held values, we believe that identifying values within AI models can be an early warning system for AI's risky behaviors. We create LitmusValues, an evaluation pipeline to reveal AI models' priorities on a range of AI value classes. Then, we collect AIRiskDilemmas, a diverse collection of dilemmas that pit values against one another in scenarios relevant to AI safety risks such as Power Seeking. By measuring an AI model's value prioritization using its aggregate choices, we obtain a self-consistent set of predicted value priorities that uncover potential risks. We show that values in LitmusValues (including seemingly innocuous ones like Care) can predict for both seen risky behaviors in AIRiskDilemmas and unseen risky behaviors in HarmBench.

Firm characteristics are commonly represented as fixed vectors, even though evidence about firms' operations arrives as heterogeneous collections of articles reports. We study how distances between distributions of firm characteristics restrict systematic covariance. For given latent exposure laws, quadratic Wasserstein geometry yields sharp covariance endpoints over admissible couplings. Under a common randomized bi-Lipschitz characteristic-to-exposure map, bounded risk-coordinate slack, and a maintained return-covariance bridge, characteristic-side distance yields a conditional interval for the covariance ceiling. Greater separation then leaves less scope for aligned systematic exposures when these assumptions are tight, while a non-negative transport excess term records the gap between realized and maximum-covariance arrangements. The resulting envelope is scenario analysis rather than an expected-return, no-arbitrage, or identified structural model. Empirically, we proxy characteristic distributions with encoder-only language-model embeddings of financial news articles, disclosures, and analyst reports for Nasdaq firms over 2018-2022. In a dyadic regression with symmetric firm effects, greater pairwise article-embedding W2 distance is associated with weaker return co-movement: the coefficient is 1.920, with 95% interval [1.412, 2.468]. The estimate retains the same sign when returns are measured in a later window, although the feature construction is not point-in-time and the evidence remains reduced form.

Recursive self-improvement, the participation of AI systems in improving their own capabilities, is beginning to move from theoretical prospect to practice, posing both challenges and opportunities for safety alignment. Models evolve through frequent updates, and their safety alignment requires continual adaptation to each new checkpoint. Meanwhile, with evolving red-teaming methods exposing new vulnerabilities, safety improvement for each checkpoint needs to mitigate exposed vulnerabilities and generalize to risks not yet revealed. Following R^2AI, we term these goals resistance to known threats and resilience to unforeseen risks. Recursive self-improvement, in turn, inspires an approach to both goals: safety alignment could likewise advance through successive rounds of evaluation and update. We therefore introduce ReSI, a recursive safety improvement framework that implements this approach through automated research. In each round, ReSI applies diverse red-teaming methods to identify vulnerabilities in the current target model, develops training recipes, and promotes the update with the largest safety gain among those passing a Pareto gate on capability retention as the next target model. Across four dense and mixture-of-experts models, ReSI matches or exceeds evaluated frontier models on in-distribution and out-of-distribution safety benchmarks, and outperforms alignment baselines on nearly all safety evaluations while largely preserving general capabilities. In particular, ReSI reduces the mean X-Teaming attack success rate across the four models from 86.01% to 31.45%, well below GPT-5.6-Luna's leading frontier result of 56.69%, indicating stronger resilience to attacks unseen during training. These findings support recursive safety improvement as a practical path toward resistant and resilient AI.

To provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for online learning models, we develop a framework for constructing uncertainty sets that provably control risk -- such as coverage of confidence intervals, false negative rate, or F1 score -- in the online setting. This extends conformal prediction to apply to a larger class of online learning problems. Our method guarantees risk control at any user-specified level even when the underlying data distribution shifts drastically, even adversarially, over time in an unknown fashion. The technique we propose is highly flexible as it can be applied with any base online learning algorithm (e.g., a deep neural network trained online), requiring minimal implementation effort and essentially zero additional computational cost. We further extend our approach to control multiple risks simultaneously, so the prediction sets we generate are valid for all given risks. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we conduct experiments on real-world tabular time-series data sets showing that the proposed method rigorously controls various natural risks. Furthermore, we show how to construct valid intervals for an online image-depth estimation problem that previous sequential calibration schemes cannot handle.

With the rapid development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), they are increasingly deployed as autonomous computer-use agents capable of accomplishing complex computer tasks. However, a pressing issue arises: Can the safety risk principles designed and aligned for general MLLMs in dialogue scenarios be effectively transferred to real-world computer-use scenarios? Existing research on evaluating the safety risks of MLLM-based computer-use agents suffers from several limitations: it either lacks realistic interactive environments, or narrowly focuses on one or a few specific risk types. These limitations ignore the complexity, variability, and diversity of real-world environments, thereby restricting comprehensive risk evaluation for computer-use agents. To this end, we introduce RiOSWorld, a benchmark designed to evaluate the potential risks of MLLM-based agents during real-world computer manipulations. Our benchmark includes 492 risky tasks spanning various computer applications, involving web, social media, multimedia, os, email, and office software. We categorize these risks into two major classes based on their risk source: (i) User-originated risks and (ii) Environmental risks. For the evaluation, we evaluate safety risks from two perspectives: (i) Risk goal intention and (ii) Risk goal completion. Extensive experiments with multimodal agents on RiOSWorld demonstrate that current computer-use agents confront significant safety risks in real-world scenarios. Our findings highlight the necessity and urgency of safety alignment for computer-use agents in real-world computer manipulation, providing valuable insights for developing trustworthy computer-use agents. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://yjyddq.github.io/RiOSWorld.github.io/.

Open-weight bio-foundation models present a dual-use dilemma. While holding great promise for accelerating scientific research and drug development, they could also enable bad actors to develop more deadly bioweapons. To mitigate the risk posed by these models, current approaches focus on filtering biohazardous data during pre-training. However, the effectiveness of such an approach remains unclear, particularly against determined actors who might fine-tune these models for malicious use. To address this gap, we propose BioRiskEval, a framework to evaluate the robustness of procedures that are intended to reduce the dual-use capabilities of bio-foundation models. BioRiskEval assesses models' virus understanding through three lenses, including sequence modeling, mutational effects prediction, and virulence prediction. Our results show that current filtering practices may not be particularly effective: Excluded knowledge can be rapidly recovered in some cases via fine-tuning, and exhibits broader generalizability in sequence modeling. Furthermore, dual-use signals may already reside in the pretrained representations, and can be elicited via simple linear probing. These findings highlight the challenges of data filtering as a standalone procedure, underscoring the need for further research into robust safety and security strategies for open-weight bio-foundation models.

Existing LLM safety evaluations rely on binary attack-success rates and domain-agnostic taxonomies, leaving regulated Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFSI) deployments exposed to failures elicited through legally or professionally plausible framing. We introduce RAHS (Risk-Adjusted Harm Score), a risk-sensitive metric jointly capturing disclosure severity, disclaimer mitigation, and inter-judge agreement, and FinRedTeamBench, a 989-prompt benchmark spanning seven BFSI risk areas and 34 sub-categories mapped to regulatory frameworks. Evaluation uses an ensemble of three heterogeneous LLM judges, validated against human experts, and an adaptive multi-turn red-teaming pipeline. On nine open-weight models, RAHS preserves separation under near-ceiling ASR, ranking is stable under hyperparameter sweeps, and multi-turn pressure drives not only more jailbreaks but more operationally severe disclosures, exposing failure modes that single-turn, domain-agnostic evaluations cannot reveal.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

LLMs(Large Language Models) nowadays have widespread adoption as a tool for solving issues across various domain/tasks. These models since are susceptible to produce harmful or toxic results, inference-time adversarial attacks, therefore they do undergo safety alignment training and Red teaming for putting in safety guardrails. For using these models, usually fine-tuning is done for model alignment on the desired tasks, which can make model more aligned but also make it more susceptible to produce unsafe responses, if fine-tuned with harmful data.In this paper, we study how much of impact introduction of harmful data in fine-tuning can make, and if it can override the safety protection of those models. Conversely,it was also explored that if model is fine-tuned on safety data can make the model produce more safer responses. Further we explore if fine-tuning the model on harmful data makes it less helpful or less trustworthy because of increase in model uncertainty leading to knowledge drift. Our extensive experimental results shown that Safety protection in an open-source can be overridden, when fine-tuned with harmful data as observed by ASR increasing by 35% when compared to basemodel's ASR. Also, as observed, fine-tuning a model with harmful data made the harmful fine-tuned model highly uncertain with huge knowledge drift and less truthfulness in its responses. Furthermore, for the safe fine-tuned model, ASR decreases by 51.68% as compared to the basemodel, and Safe model also shown in minor drop in uncertainty and truthfulness as compared to basemodel. This paper's code is available at: https://github.com/techsachinkr/Overriding_Model_Safety_Protections

Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey application-specific operational constraints. In this paper, we present a new machine learning approach to learn risk scores. We formulate the risk score problem as a mixed integer nonlinear program, and present a cutting plane algorithm for non-convex settings to efficiently recover its optimal solution. We improve our algorithm with specialized techniques to generate feasible solutions, narrow the optimality gap, and reduce data-related computation. Our approach can fit risk scores in a way that scales linearly in the number of samples, provides a certificate of optimality, and obeys real-world constraints without parameter tuning or post-processing. We benchmark the performance benefits of this approach through an extensive set of numerical experiments, comparing to risk scores built using heuristic approaches. We also discuss its practical benefits through a real-world application where we build a customized risk score for ICU seizure prediction in collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital.

Assessing the capabilities and risks of frontier AI systems is a critical area of research, and recent work has shown that repeated sampling from models can dramatically increase both. For instance, repeated sampling has been shown to increase their capabilities, such as solving difficult math and coding problems, but it has also been shown to increase their potential for harm, such as being jailbroken. Such results raise a crucial question for both capability and safety forecasting: how can one accurately predict a model's behavior when scaled to a massive number of attempts, given a vastly smaller sampling budget? This question is directly relevant to model providers, who serve hundreds of millions of users daily, and to governmental regulators, who seek to prevent harms. To answer this questions, we make three contributions. First, we find that standard methods for fitting these laws suffer from statistical shortcomings that hinder predictive accuracy, especially in data-limited scenarios. Second, we remedy these shortcomings by introducing a robust estimation framework, which uses a beta-binomial distribution to generate more accurate predictions from limited data. Third, we propose a dynamic sampling strategy that allocates a greater budget to harder problems. Combined, these innovations enable more reliable prediction of rare risks and capabilities at a fraction of the computational cost.

Many deployments must compare candidate language models for safety before a labeled benchmark exists for the relevant language, sector, or regulatory regime. We formalize this setting as benchmarkless comparative safety scoring and specify the contract under which a scenario-based audit can be interpreted as deployment evidence. Scores are valid only under a fixed scenario pack, rubric, auditor, judge, sampling configuration, and rerun budget. Because no labels are available, we replace ground-truth agreement with an instrumental-validity chain: responsiveness to a controlled safe-versus-abliterated contrast, dominance of target-driven variance over auditor and judge artifacts, and stability across reruns. We instantiate the chain in SimpleAudit, a local-first scoring instrument, and validate it on a Norwegian safety pack. Safe and abliterated targets separate with AUROC values between 0.89 and 1.00, target identity is the dominant variance component (η^2 approx 0.52), and severity profiles stabilize by ten reruns. Applying the same chain to Petri shows that it admits both tools. The substantial differences arise upstream of the chain, in claim-contract enforcement and deployment fit. A Norwegian public-sector procurement case comparing Borealis and Gemma 3 demonstrates the resulting evidence in practice: the safer model depends on scenario category and risk measure. Consequently, scores, matched deltas, critical rates, uncertainty, and the auditor and judge used must be reported together rather than collapsed into a single ranking.

Loss Given Default (LGD) modeling faces a fundamental data quality constraint: 90% of available training data consists of proxy estimates based on pre-distress balance sheets rather than actual recovery outcomes from completed bankruptcy proceedings. We demonstrate that this mixture-contaminated training structure causes systematic failure of recursive partitioning methods, with Random Forest achieving negative r-squared (-0.664, worse than predicting the mean) on held-out test data. Information-theoretic approaches based on Shannon entropy and mutual information provide superior generalization, achieving r-squared of 0.191 and RMSE of 0.284 on 1,218 corporate bankruptcies (1980-2023). Analysis reveals that leverage-based features contain 1.510 bits of mutual information while size effects contribute only 0.086 bits, contradicting regulatory assumptions about scale-dependent recovery. These results establish practical guidance for financial institutions deploying LGD models under Basel III requirements when representative outcome data is unavailable at sufficient scale. The findings generalize to medical outcomes research, climate forecasting, and technology reliability-domains where extended observation periods create unavoidable mixture structure in training data.

Large language models (LLMs) typically deploy safety mechanisms to prevent harmful content generation. Most current approaches focus narrowly on risks posed by malicious actors, often framing risks as adversarial events and relying on defensive refusals. However, in real-world settings, risks also come from non-malicious users seeking help while under psychological distress (e.g., self-harm intentions). In such cases, the model's response can strongly influence the user's next actions. Simple refusals may lead them to repeat, escalate, or move to unsafe platforms, creating worse outcomes. We introduce Constructive Safety Alignment (CSA), a human-centric paradigm that protects against malicious misuse while actively guiding vulnerable users toward safe and helpful results. Implemented in Oyster-I (Oy1), CSA combines game-theoretic anticipation of user reactions, fine-grained risk boundary discovery, and interpretable reasoning control, turning safety into a trust-building process. Oy1 achieves state-of-the-art safety among open models while retaining high general capabilities. On our Constructive Benchmark, it shows strong constructive engagement, close to GPT-5, and unmatched robustness on the Strata-Sword jailbreak dataset, nearing GPT-o1 levels. By shifting from refusal-first to guidance-first safety, CSA redefines the model-user relationship, aiming for systems that are not just safe, but meaningfully helpful. We release Oy1, code, and the benchmark to support responsible, user-centered AI.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

We introduce a transfer learning framework for regression that leverages heterogeneous source domains to improve predictive performance in a data-scarce target domain. Our approach fits a conditional generative model to each source domain and calibrates a shared linear combination of the generated responses via conditional quantile matching at the observed target covariates. The calibration aligns the conditional response distributions while accommodating simultaneous shifts in both the covariate and conditional response distributions. The calibrated responses then serve as pseudo-labels to augment the target data for a broad class of downstream learning tasks. Theoretically, we derive an excess risk bound for an empirical risk minimizer (ERM) trained on the augmented data, separating the benefit of an enlarged training sample from errors due to density ratio estimation, source generator estimation, conditional calibration, and irreducible transfer bias. Empirically, simulations and real-data applications show that the proposed method can improve target-domain prediction when the transfer bias is small.

The application scope of Large Language Models (LLMs) continues to expand, leading to increasing interest in personalized LLMs that align with human values. However, aligning these models with individual values raises significant safety concerns, as certain values may correlate with harmful information. In this paper, we identify specific safety risks associated with value-aligned LLMs and investigate the psychological principles behind these challenges. Our findings reveal two key insights. (1) Value-aligned LLMs are more prone to harmful behavior compared to non-fine-tuned models and exhibit slightly higher risks in traditional safety evaluations than other fine-tuned models. (2) These safety issues arise because value-aligned LLMs genuinely generate text according to the aligned values, which can amplify harmful outcomes. Using a dataset with detailed safety categories, we find significant correlations between value alignment and safety risks, supported by psychological hypotheses. This study offers insights into the "black box" of value alignment and proposes in-context alignment methods to enhance the safety of value-aligned LLMs.

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects -- such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students -- receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We present a usage scenario and subjective feedback from observational studies with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked concerns over their potential to acquire and misuse dangerous or high-risk capabilities, posing frontier risks. Current safety evaluations primarily test for what a model can do - its capabilities - without assessing what it would do if endowed with high-risk capabilities. This leaves a critical blind spot: models may strategically conceal capabilities or rapidly acquire them, while harboring latent inclinations toward misuse. We argue that propensity - the likelihood of a model to pursue harmful actions if empowered - is a critical, yet underexplored, axis of safety evaluation. We present PropensityBench, a novel benchmark framework that assesses the proclivity of models to engage in risky behaviors when equipped with simulated dangerous capabilities using proxy tools. Our framework includes 5,874 scenarios with 6,648 tools spanning four high-risk domains: cybersecurity, self-proliferation, biosecurity, and chemical security. We simulate access to powerful capabilities via a controlled agentic environment and evaluate the models' choices under varying operational pressures that reflect real-world constraints or incentives models may encounter, such as resource scarcity or gaining more autonomy. Across open-source and proprietary frontier models, we uncover 9 alarming signs of propensity: models frequently choose high-risk tools when under pressure, despite lacking the capability to execute such actions unaided. These findings call for a shift from static capability audits toward dynamic propensity assessments as a prerequisite for deploying frontier AI systems safely. Our code is available at https://github.com/scaleapi/propensity-evaluation.

Survival analysis is the problem of estimating probability distributions for future event times, which can be seen as a problem in uncertainty quantification. Although there are fundamental theories on strictly proper scoring rules for uncertainty quantification, little is known about those for survival analysis. In this paper, we investigate extensions of four major strictly proper scoring rules for survival analysis and we prove that these extensions are proper under certain conditions, which arise from the discretization of the estimation of probability distributions. We also compare the estimation performances of these extended scoring rules by using real datasets, and the extensions of the logarithmic score and the Brier score performed the best.

Accurate prediction of biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy is critical for guiding adjuvant treatment and surveillance decisions in prostate cancer. However, existing clinicopathological risk models reduce complex morphology to relatively coarse descriptors, leaving substantial prognostic information embedded in routine histopathology underexplored. We present a deep learning-based biomarker that predicts continuous, patient-specific risk of BCR directly from H&E-stained whole-slide prostatectomy specimens. Trained end-to-end on time-to-event outcomes and evaluated across four independent international cohorts, our model demonstrates robust generalization across institutions and patient populations. When integrated with the CAPRA-S clinical risk score, the deep learning risk score consistently improved discrimination for BCR, increasing concordance indices from 0.725-0.772 to 0.749-0.788 across cohorts. To support clinical interpretability, outcome-grounded analyses revealed subtle histomorphological patterns associated with recurrence risk that are not captured by conventional clinicopathological risk scores. This multicohort study demonstrates that deep learning applied to routine prostate histopathology can deliver reproducible and clinically generalizable biomarkers that augment postoperative risk stratification, with potential to support personalized management of prostate cancer in real-world clinical settings.

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has been an effective approach for improving Large Language Models' reasoning in domains such as coding and mathematics. Here, we apply RLVR methods towards forecasting future real-world events - a challenging task for RL due to the very noisy (and delayed) outcomes involved. Using a novel dataset of recent questions from a prediction market, and accompanying relevant news headlines, we show that a compact (14B) reasoning model can be trained to match or surpass the predictive accuracy of frontier models like o1, while greatly improving probabilistic calibration. The model's performance is also practically meaningful: in a Polymarket trading simulation, we estimate that its bets would have yielded a return on investment of over 10% across all questions in the test set. We detail and compare approaches used in training our model, including augmenting our training-data with synthetic prediction questions, guardrails for learning stability, and median prediction sampling at inference-time.

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN) along with two probabilistic deep learning models: DeepVAR and GPVAR to the task of one-day ahead multivariate forecasting. We then use these forecasts to optimize portfolios of stocks and cryptocurrencies. Our analysis presents results across different combinations of observation windows and rebalancing periods to compare performances of classical and deep learning variance-covariance estimation methods. The conclusions of the study are that although the strategies (portfolios) performance differed significantly between different combinations of parameters, generally the best results in terms of the information ratio and annualized returns are obtained using the LSTM-RNN models. Moreover, longer observation windows translate into better performance of the deep learning models indicating that these methods require longer windows to be able to efficiently capture the long-term dependencies of the variance-covariance matrix structure. Strategies with less frequent rebalancing typically perform better than these with the shortest rebalancing windows across all considered methods.

Computer-use agents plan on a screenshot for several seconds and then click at a position on the screen; if the page has changed in the meantime, the click lands on an unintended element. Prior work treats the planning interval as the source of this risk. Measuring planned clicks on 31 public web pages, we find that the risk lies in page loading: 0.4% of clicks planned on fully loaded pages became stale within 30 seconds, against 17% of clicks planned in the first second after a page opened. On these pages, waiting about one second for network activity to stop removes most of this risk, yet the wait rules of eight of ten widely used open-source agents leave more than 1% of clicks stale. Commercial pages keep loading for longer: in the HTTP Archive's public crawl, 15% of 65 desktop booking and buying home pages went 500 ms without network requests within 3 seconds of their HTML being parsed, against 63% of 3,028 .gov pages, and 52% shifted their layout within 6.5 seconds of a network-idle wait capped at 3 seconds, against 8% (61% against 26% among pages recorded in full). Where a check before the click is needed, as before irreversible actions and on pages that are still loading, a pixel comparison verifies the target's position as accurately as a frontier vision-language model at one eighth of the latency, and a 4B model matches the frontier model in verifying whether the previous action succeeded. We release a benchmark generator, a break-even formula for when a check pays, and three rules for agent developers: https://github.com/multimodal-ai-engineering/preflight-bench

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Agentic AI systems are increasingly being explored in medical imaging to improve throughput and reduce clinician workload; however, safe deployment remains challenging because autonomous errors may propagate into downstream clinical decisions. A central requirement is therefore not only strong predictive performance, but also a reliable routing mechanism that determines when the system should proceed autonomously and when a case should be escalated for further review. To address this gap, we propose CRC-Router, a risk-constrained, uncertainty-aware routing module that is applicable to both conventional medical prediction models and agentic medical AI systems. CRC-Router combines multiple complementary uncertainty signals with the predictive score to construct a per-finding routing feature vector, maps this vector to an estimated wrong-accept risk using a lightweight per-finding risk model, and then applies Conformal Risk Control (CRC) to calibrate acceptance thresholds under a user-specified risk target. Instantiated on chest X-ray multi-finding triage using the NIH ChestX-ray14 dataset, CRC-Router achieves the strongest empirical risk--coverage trade-off among the evaluated baselines, both as a standalone routing layer and as a plug-in module integrated with the state-of-the-art MedRAX agent. These results demonstrate both the effectiveness of CRC-Router in selective medical automation and its modular, model-agnostic compatibility with existing predictive and agentic medical pipelines. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/XLIAaron/CRC-Router

Tool retrieval determines which external tools are exposed to an LLM agent for a user query or task, making retrieval a critical pre-execution safety boundary. Unlike document retrieval, tool retrieval exposes executable actions: a tool that is useful for one task may be unnecessary or risky for another. However, existing tool-retrieval methods primarily optimize semantic relevance, and safety evaluations often focus on failures after tool execution rather than risks introduced during retrieval. We study risk-aware tool retrieval, where the goal is to retrieve useful tools while reducing exposure to higher-risk tools. We propose a lightweight reranking framework on top of a frozen first-stage retriever. The framework models query-conditioned relevance and tool-level exposure risk separately, combines them through an explicit parameter controlling the tradeoff between safety and utility, smooths scores over a ToolGraph, and optionally applies rule-based safety constraints. To support retrieval-time safety evaluation, we annotate 6,108 tools across UltraTool and Seal-Tools with five ordinal risk levels and define metrics that measure risky-tool exposure in the top-k results. Experiments on UltraTool and Seal-Tools show that our approach improves the relevance--safety tradeoff over relevance-only retrievers and reranking baselines, with the rule-filtered variant providing a conservative operating point for safety-critical deployments. These findings indicate that retrieval-stage filtering can reduce the candidate action space exposed to agents before execution, complementing downstream tool-use safeguards. The code and supplementary materials are available at: https://github.com/qli447/risk-aware-tool-retrieval-release.

Risk-aware planners score paths on uncertain elevation maps using the path cost's mean and standard deviation. Modeling rigid contact, however, requires computing a maximum over several uncertain cells. First-order propagation loses accuracy here by differentiating at only a single cell, while Monte Carlo sampling requires a full path evaluation per draw. We compute the moments of that contact maximum in closed form using Clark's pairwise recursion. By tracking each contact's covariance against the shared map cells, we propagate the smooth remainder using exact Gaussian quadratic-form identities. A contest-depth calibration, fitted once on two design traverses, closes the aggregate standard-deviation shortfall that remains. On 317 held-out rover path segments, scored against a Monte Carlo reference from the same belief, every pre-registered criterion was met. The corrected Clark fold cuts the median error of the mean from linearization's 2.3% to 0.19% and attains the lowest error in the conditional value at risk (CVaR) at the 90% level of every method tested. A benchmark plan costs just 5.5 microseconds on a GPU. These accuracy gains concentrate at contested contacts. While they seldom change which path is chosen on this terrain, the fold still selects the reference-best path in 98% of decisions against linearization's 93 to 96%. On a second dataset the mean transfers, though the risk number does not.

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework has garnered attention in recent econometric literature, yet current approaches implicitly assume a constant Pareto exponent. We introduce novel and robust econometrics to estimate the tails of GaR based on a rigorous theoretical framework and establish validity and effectiveness. Simulations demonstrate consistent outperformance relative to existing alternatives in terms of predictive accuracy. We perform a long-term GaR analysis that provides accurate and insightful predictions, effectively capturing financial anomalies better than current methods.

Frontier language models excel at complex tasks yet may prioritize protection over larger physical consequences in simple, urgent decisions. GPT-5.6 Sol, for example, moves a girl playing in shallow water before retrieving a submerged camera. We call this Protection Mode and study it with ProtectionBench: 285 prompts, 34 physical families, and nine models. At lowest effort, at least one of four responses prioritizes the subject on 34.74% of Sol prompts and over 83% of MiniMax M3 and Qwen3.5-27B prompts; none of four independent human raters does so. Controls show that choices usually track physical risk. We elicit both risks before requesting an action. Some models assess risk incorrectly; others state the correct ordering but still choose the subject. Qwen3.5-27B with thinking shows 100% correct risk ordering but 57.81% subject choice among eligible conversations on eight selected scenes. Attention audits find no stable reduction in attention to relevant facts; removing the stated risk direction reduces object-first choice in dots3-note-prev but not detectably in Qwen3.5-27B. Adding a general "people or animals before property" rule increases subject choice by 19-38 percentage points, whereas factual reminders favor the object by 0.7-5.2 points. Removing naturally generated versions of that rule lowers subject choice by 10-15 points. We also examine whether post-training introduces this pattern. Base models already show Protection Mode; post-training changes justifications more than choices.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

To understand and identify the unprecedented risks posed by rapidly advancing artificial intelligence (AI) models, this report presents a comprehensive assessment of their frontier risks. Drawing on the E-T-C analysis (deployment environment, threat source, enabling capability) from the Frontier AI Risk Management Framework (v1.0) (SafeWork-F1-Framework), we identify critical risks in seven areas: cyber offense, biological and chemical risks, persuasion and manipulation, uncontrolled autonomous AI R\&D, strategic deception and scheming, self-replication, and collusion. Guided by the "AI-45^circ Law," we evaluate these risks using "red lines" (intolerable thresholds) and "yellow lines" (early warning indicators) to define risk zones: green (manageable risk for routine deployment and continuous monitoring), yellow (requiring strengthened mitigations and controlled deployment), and red (necessitating suspension of development and/or deployment). Experimental results show that all recent frontier AI models reside in green and yellow zones, without crossing red lines. Specifically, no evaluated models cross the yellow line for cyber offense or uncontrolled AI R\&D risks. For self-replication, and strategic deception and scheming, most models remain in the green zone, except for certain reasoning models in the yellow zone. In persuasion and manipulation, most models are in the yellow zone due to their effective influence on humans. For biological and chemical risks, we are unable to rule out the possibility of most models residing in the yellow zone, although detailed threat modeling and in-depth assessment are required to make further claims. This work reflects our current understanding of AI frontier risks and urges collective action to mitigate these challenges.

As reasoning capacity and deployment scope grow in tandem, large language models (LLMs) gain the capacity to engage in behaviors that serve their own objectives, a class of risks we term Emergent Strategic Reasoning Risks (ESRRs). These include, but are not limited to, deception (intentionally misleading users or evaluators), evaluation gaming (strategically manipulating performance during safety testing), and reward hacking (exploiting misspecified objectives). Systematically understanding and benchmarking these risks remains an open challenge. To address this gap, we introduce ESRRSim, a taxonomy-driven agentic framework for automated behavioral risk evaluation. We construct an extensible risk taxonomy of 7 categories, which is decomposed into 20 subcategories. ESRRSim generates evaluation scenarios designed to elicit faithful reasoning, paired with dual rubrics assessing both model responses and reasoning traces, in a judge-agnostic and scalable architecture. Evaluation across 11 reasoning LLMs reveals substantial variation in risk profiles (detection rates ranging 14.45%-72.72%), with dramatic generational improvements suggesting models may increasingly recognize and adapt to evaluation contexts.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has delivered impressive gains in mathematical and multimodal reasoning and has become a standard post-training paradigm for contemporary language and vision-language models. However, the RLVR recipe introduces a significant risk of capability regression, where models forget foundational skills after prolonged training without employing regularization strategies. We empirically confirm this concern, observing that open-source reasoning models suffer performance degradation on core capabilities such as perception and faithfulness. While imposing regularization terms like KL divergence can help prevent deviation from the base model, these terms are calculated on the current task, thus they do not guarantee broader knowledge. Meanwhile, commonly used experience replay across heterogeneous domains makes it nontrivial to decide how much training focus each objective should receive. To address this, we propose RECAP-a replay strategy with dynamic objective reweighting for general knowledge preservation. Our reweighting mechanism adapts in an online manner using short-horizon signals of convergence and instability, shifting the post-training focus away from saturated objectives and toward underperforming or volatile ones. Our method is end-to-end and readily applicable to existing RLVR pipelines without training additional models or heavy tuning. Extensive experiments on benchmarks based on Qwen2.5-VL-3B and Qwen2.5-VL-7B demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, which not only preserves general capabilities but also improves reasoning by enabling more flexible trade-offs among in-task rewards.

This paper proposes a formal framework for reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. A joint macro-financial scenario vector, augmented with an explicit geopolitical risk factor, is mapped into stressed probabilities of default and losses given default. These stresses are then propagated to portfolio tail losses through a latent factor structure and translated into a stressed CET1 ratio, jointly accounting for capital depletion and risk-weighted asset dynamics. Reverse stress testing is formulated as a constrained maximum likelihood problem over the scenario space. This yields a geopolitical point reverse stress test, or design point, defined as the most probable scenario that breaches a prescribed capital adequacy constraint under a reference distribution. The framework further characterises neighbourhoods and near optimal sets of reverse stress scenarios, allowing for sensitivity analysis and governance oriented interpretation. The approach is compatible with internal rating based models and supports implementation at the exposure or sector level.

Globally, artificial intelligence (AI) implementation is growing, holding the capability to fundamentally alter organisational processes and decision making. Simultaneously, this brings a multitude of emergent risks to organisations, exposing vulnerabilities in their extant risk management frameworks. This necessitates a greater understanding of how organisations can position themselves in response. This issue is particularly pertinent within the financial sector with relatively mature AI applications matched with severe societal repercussions of potential risk events. Despite this, academic risk management literature is trailing behind the speed of AI implementation. Adopting a management perspective, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of AI risk management in organisations through an exploratory empirical investigation into these practices. In-depth insights are gained through interviews with nine practitioners from different organisations within the UK financial sector. Through examining areas of organisational convergence and divergence, the findings of this study unearth levels of risk management framework readiness and prevailing approaches to risk management at both a processual and organisational level. Whilst enhancing the developing literature concerning AI risk management within organisations, the study simultaneously offers a practical contribution, providing key areas of guidance for practitioners in the operational development of AI risk management frameworks.

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

Policies with similar mean returns can differ sharply in rare failures, yet estimating lower-tail conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) accurately can require many costly rollouts. When different conditional components of a stochastic workflow can be queried separately, we ask how to allocate a fixed evaluation budget to estimate a fixed policy's CVaR most accurately. We derive a tail influence for each queryable conditional law that aggregates how its uncertainty affects CVaR across every Bellman reuse. Its variance yields the fixed-design efficiency bound and the oracle Neyman allocation. Tail-Influence Sampling (TIS) estimates these influence scales from a pilot model and reallocates fresh queries toward kernels that matter most for the tail; a visitation-anchored variant protects against pilot underallocation. Under fixed dimension and a positive quantile margin, TIS attains oracle asymptotic variance and first-order MSE including pilot cost, while the anchored variant is within a factor two of the oracle. We also characterize an exact-grid regime in which tail- and mean-optimal allocations coincide. On CliffWalking, TIS reduces MSE by 41% versus learned occupancy and 76% versus complete rollouts at the same charged transition budget. In frozen language-model review workflows, anchored TIS beats an equally regularized mean-influence blend in 23 of 24 MMLU-Pro settings and reaches 2.4-3.4times lower MSE than rollouts on six-call FinQA reviews.

Foundation models are powerful technologies: how they are released publicly directly shapes their societal impact. In this position paper, we focus on open foundation models, defined here as those with broadly available model weights (e.g. Llama 2, Stable Diffusion XL). We identify five distinctive properties (e.g. greater customizability, poor monitoring) of open foundation models that lead to both their benefits and risks. Open foundation models present significant benefits, with some caveats, that span innovation, competition, the distribution of decision-making power, and transparency. To understand their risks of misuse, we design a risk assessment framework for analyzing their marginal risk. Across several misuse vectors (e.g. cyberattacks, bioweapons), we find that current research is insufficient to effectively characterize the marginal risk of open foundation models relative to pre-existing technologies. The framework helps explain why the marginal risk is low in some cases, clarifies disagreements about misuse risks by revealing that past work has focused on different subsets of the framework with different assumptions, and articulates a way forward for more constructive debate. Overall, our work helps support a more grounded assessment of the societal impact of open foundation models by outlining what research is needed to empirically validate their theoretical benefits and risks.

Task robust adaptation is a long-standing pursuit in sequential decision-making. Some risk-averse strategies, e.g., the conditional value-at-risk principle, are incorporated in domain randomization or meta reinforcement learning to prioritize difficult tasks in optimization, which demand costly intensive evaluations. The efficiency issue prompts the development of robust active task sampling to train adaptive policies, where risk-predictive models are used to surrogate policy evaluation. This work characterizes the optimization pipeline of robust active task sampling as a Markov decision process, posits theoretical and practical insights, and constitutes robustness concepts in risk-averse scenarios. Importantly, we propose an easy-to-implement method, referred to as Posterior and Diversity Synergized Task Sampling (PDTS), to accommodate fast and robust sequential decision-making. Extensive experiments show that PDTS unlocks the potential of robust active task sampling, significantly improves the zero-shot and few-shot adaptation robustness in challenging tasks, and even accelerates the learning process under certain scenarios. Our project website is at https://thu-rllab.github.io/PDTS_project_page.

With the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs), their associated security issues have become increasingly prominent, severely constraining their trustworthy deployment in critical domains. This paper proposes a novel safety response framework designed to systematically safeguard LLMs at both the input and output levels. At the input level, the framework employs a supervised fine-tuning-based safety classification model. Through a fine-grained four-tier taxonomy (Safe, Unsafe, Conditionally Safe, Focused Attention), it performs precise risk identification and differentiated handling of user queries, significantly enhancing risk coverage and business scenario adaptability, and achieving a risk recall rate of 99.3%. At the output level, the framework integrates Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) with a specifically fine-tuned interpretation model, ensuring all responses are grounded in a real-time, trustworthy knowledge base. This approach eliminates information fabrication and enables result traceability. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed safety control model achieves a significantly higher safety score on public safety evaluation benchmarks compared to the baseline model, TinyR1-Safety-8B. Furthermore, on our proprietary high-risk test set, the framework's components attained a perfect 100% safety score, validating their exceptional protective capabilities in complex risk scenarios. This research provides an effective engineering pathway for building high-security, high-trust LLM applications.

We consider finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes where parameters, such as transition probabilities, are unknown and estimated from data. The popular distributionally robust approach to addressing the parameter uncertainty can sometimes be overly conservative. In this paper, we propose a new formulation, Bayesian risk Markov Decision Process (BR-MDP), to address parameter uncertainty in MDPs, where a risk functional is applied in nested form to the expected total cost with respect to the Bayesian posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. The proposed formulation provides more flexible risk attitutes towards parameter uncertainty and takes into account the availability of data in future times stages. To solve the proposed formulation with the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) risk functional, we propose an efficient approximation algorithm by deriving an analytical approximation of the value function and utilizing the convexity of CVaR. We demonstrate the empirical performance of the BR-MDP formulation and proposed algorithms on a gambler's betting problem and an inventory control problem.

Despite the impressive capabilities of large language models (LLMs) across diverse applications, they still suffer from trustworthiness issues, such as hallucinations and misalignments. Retrieval-augmented language models (RAG) have been proposed to enhance the credibility of generations by grounding external knowledge, but the theoretical understandings of their generation risks remains unexplored. In this paper, we answer: 1) whether RAG can indeed lead to low generation risks, 2) how to provide provable guarantees on the generation risks of RAG and vanilla LLMs, and 3) what sufficient conditions enable RAG models to reduce generation risks. We propose C-RAG, the first framework to certify generation risks for RAG models. Specifically, we provide conformal risk analysis for RAG models and certify an upper confidence bound of generation risks, which we refer to as conformal generation risk. We also provide theoretical guarantees on conformal generation risks for general bounded risk functions under test distribution shifts. We prove that RAG achieves a lower conformal generation risk than that of a single LLM when the quality of the retrieval model and transformer is non-trivial. Our intensive empirical results demonstrate the soundness and tightness of our conformal generation risk guarantees across four widely-used NLP datasets on four state-of-the-art retrieval models.

We propose a deep hedging framework for index option portfolios, grounded in a realistic market simulator that captures the joint dynamics of S&P 500 returns and the full implied volatility surface. Our approach integrates surface-informed decisions with multiple hedging instruments and explicitly accounts for transaction costs. The hedging strategy also considers the variance risk premium embedded in the hedging instruments, enabling more informed and adaptive risk management. Tested on a historical out-of-sample set of straddles from 2020 to 2023, our method consistently outperforms traditional delta-gamma hedging strategies across a range of market conditions.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

The extant insurance literature demonstrates a paucity of finite-sample valid prediction intervals of future insurance claims in the regression setting. To address this challenge, this article proposes a new strategy that converts a predictive method in the unsupervised iid (independent identically distributed) setting to a predictive method in the regression setting. In particular, it enables an actuary to obtain infinitely many finite-sample valid prediction intervals in the regression setting.

AI developers often apply safety alignment procedures to prevent the misuse of their AI systems. For example, before Meta released Llama 2-Chat, a collection of instruction fine-tuned large language models, they invested heavily in safety training, incorporating extensive red-teaming and reinforcement learning from human feedback. However, it remains unclear how well safety training guards against model misuse when attackers have access to model weights. We explore the robustness of safety training in language models by subversively fine-tuning the public weights of Llama 2-Chat. We employ low-rank adaptation (LoRA) as an efficient fine-tuning method. With a budget of less than $200 per model and using only one GPU, we successfully undo the safety training of Llama 2-Chat models of sizes 7B, 13B, and 70B. Specifically, our fine-tuning technique significantly reduces the rate at which the model refuses to follow harmful instructions. We achieve a refusal rate below 1% for our 70B Llama 2-Chat model on two refusal benchmarks. Our fine-tuning method retains general performance, which we validate by comparing our fine-tuned models against Llama 2-Chat across two benchmarks. Additionally, we present a selection of harmful outputs produced by our models. While there is considerable uncertainty about the scope of risks from current models, it is likely that future models will have significantly more dangerous capabilities, including the ability to hack into critical infrastructure, create dangerous bio-weapons, or autonomously replicate and adapt to new environments. We show that subversive fine-tuning is practical and effective, and hence argue that evaluating risks from fine-tuning should be a core part of risk assessments for releasing model weights.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

A longitudinal web crawl is a sequence of partial samples of an evolving URL population. Pairwise containment between two crawls is the standard probe; under a simple urn model of the crawl -- each round samples a fraction of the URLs and replaces a fraction -- it recovers two interpretable rates, per-round survival α and coverage c, but treats the population as uniform and consumes one pair at a time. In this work, we define a formal language for talking about a crawl. We extend this analysis with the discovery curve U(s, T), the cumulative URL footprint over a sliding window of T crawls starting at s, which under the same urn model is also a closed-form function of (α, c). Containment and the discovery curve are then two projections of one process: independent fits agree on (α, c) when the urn is homogeneous, so any disagreement is itself a measurement. Applied to Common Crawl (2020--2025, domain granularity) and to the German Academic Web (GAW, URL granularity), the two projections disagree on both archives, and a two-component urn with a persistent core fraction κ alongside shell parameters (α_partial, c_partial) reconciles the disagreement. A residual on c_partial remains, signaling that the shell itself is not homogeneous; κ is recorded as the scalar entry point to a rank-resolved generalization, which is left to follow-up work. web archive \and crawl coverage \and discovery curve \and urn model \and two-component model \and URL lifetime

RED-2400 is a public benchmark of algorithmically-rejected trading events from a live Solana decentralized-exchange filter stack. I logged the data continuously between 2026-04-10 and 2026-05-02. The benchmark contains 6,659 rejection events linked to 169,122 post-rejection price and liquidity observations and 1,836 graveyard-tracker snapshots. Outcome labels follow the five-tier classification of Kamat (2026c): saved (windowed), saved (early-death), missed, flat, and unclassifiable. Thresholds use the trough-to-reference and peak-to-reference price ratios within a 24-hour window. Most filter-design datasets cover the accept side only. That gap leaves reject-side outcomes unmeasured and biases filter validation. RED-2400 lets researchers replicate filter-precision claims directly. RED-2400 is the first window in a planned dataset series; subsequent windows will extend the time horizon and enable regime-stratified analysis.

As large language models (LLMs) acquire advanced biological design capabilities, they offer substantial research benefits but simultaneously introduce severe dual-use risks, such as engineering enhanced pathogens or drug-resistant bacteria. While biosecurity frameworks recognize these threats, the actual risk of LLMs executing dangerous biological modifications remains unquantified, particularly when augmented with specialized biological design tools (BDTs). Existing evaluations primarily assess hazardous knowledge possession rather than practical application, overlook risk amplification from BDTs, and rely on unreliable, expensive, or hazardous validation methods. To address these gaps, we introduce DRYLAB-Bench (Design Risk Yielded by LLM Agent in Biodesign), the first comprehensive benchmark evaluating the high-risk biological mutation design capabilities of LLM agents. Moving beyond basic question-answering, DRYLAB-Bench tasks agents with 30 genuinely hazardous mutation-design scenarios distilled from biosecurity guidelines. It evaluates models in a multi-round, tool-augmented environment where LLMs orchestrate BDTs to iteratively refine candidates. Crucially, it scores designs directly against 187,695 empirical wet-lab measurements from ProteinGym and ViroGym using our proposed Biosecurity Risk Score (BRS), quantifying risk-associated effects while enabling scalable and safe ground-truth verification. Evaluations of 15 frontier models reveal substantial baseline threats: without tools, 67.6% of one-shot designs exceed the average measured variant, and 21.4% reach the highest-risk decile. Equipping models with BDTs significantly amplifies this risk, raising the pooled risk by \(ΔBRS=+0.116\) and the top-decile share to 23.5%. Code: https://github.com/drylab-bio/DRYLAB-Bench

For one to guarantee higher-quality software development processes, risk management is essential. Furthermore, risks are those that could negatively impact an organization's operations or a project's progress. The appropriate prioritisation of software project risks is a crucial factor in ascertaining the software project's performance features and eventual success. They can be used harmoniously with the same training samples and have good complement and compatibility. We carried out in-depth tests on four benchmark datasets to confirm the efficacy of our CIA approach in closed-world and open-world scenarios, with and without defence. We also present a sequential augmentation parameter optimisation technique that captures the interdependencies of the latest deep learning state-of-the-art WF attack models. To achieve precise software risk assessment, the enhanced crow search algorithm (ECSA) is used to modify the ANFIS settings. Solutions that very slightly alter the local optimum and stay inside it are extracted using the ECSA. ANFIS variable when utilising the ANFIS technique. An experimental validation with NASA 93 dataset and 93 software project values was performed. This method's output presents a clear image of the software risk elements that are essential to achieving project performance. The results of our experiments show that, when compared to other current methods, our integrative fuzzy techniques may perform more accurately and effectively in the evaluation of software project risks.

The Internet of Value (IoV) is a heterogeneous, partially-trusted network in which the dominant marginal risk is composite (route, sentiment, liquidity, and the policy a system is willing to commit to) rather than a property of any single chain. We argue that a risk primitive adequate for this regime is a composition of five engines: a prediction engine over price, liquidity, volatility, and route health; a Bittensor verification subnet that decentralises and economically scores prediction outputs; a sentiment-fusion engine over text, on-chain flow, and grey-literature feeds; an agentic engine under constitutional, role-bound action constraints; and an API-risk and scenario engine that converts forecasts into pre-committed action programs in the sense of Monte-Carlo scenario generation. We anchor the architecture in two empirical artefacts: a 27-hour policy-constrained liquidity stress-response experiment on Solana, and a 168-hour prediction-router calibration arc reported with explicit class-imbalance honesty. The case study supports deployability; the validator-loss decomposition is stated formally and is falsifiable.

Open-weight language models can be rendered unsafe through several parameter-level interventions, yet models with matched harmful compliance can exhibit fundamentally different failure modes. We compare harmful supervised fine-tuning (SFT), harmful reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), and refusal-feature abliteration in Qwen2.5-7B and Llama-3.1-8B using harmfulness, capability, self-audit, safety reflection, representation similarity, and refusal-direction repair. All three routes reach near-ceiling harmfulness, but SFT causes the broadest capability loss and representational drift; abliteration yields localized, family-dependent refusal-feature suppression; and RLVR largely preserves base-model capability, explicit safety judgments, and representation geometry while retargeting behavior toward compliance. RLVR models consequently remain unusually responsive to safety-reflection prompts despite complying under direct prompting. We further find that harmful RLVR induces capability-blind compliance: models claim to complete unavailable actions and fabricate information about nonexistent entities. Targeted RLVR calibration substantially reduces this false acceptance without restoring safety or degrading general capability. These results show that harmful compliance, harm recognition, and capability awareness are separable behavioral axes, and that self-audit and hallucination patterns are not necessarily robust safety signals under adaptive post-training.