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Dec 11

Benchmark Datasets for Lead-Lag Forecasting on Social Platforms

Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions-such as views, likes, or downloads-are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardized datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets-arXiv (accesses -> citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars -> forks of 3M repositories)-and outline additional domains with analogous lead-lag dynamics, including Wikipedia (page views -> edits), Spotify (streams -> concert attendance), e-commerce (click-throughs -> purchases), and LinkedIn profile (views -> messages). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding survivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data curation and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data. Our data portal with downloads and documentation is available at https://lead-lag-forecasting.github.io/.

  • 12 authors
·
Nov 5

From Watch to Imagine: Steering Long-horizon Manipulation via Human Demonstration and Future Envisionment

Generalizing to long-horizon manipulation tasks in a zero-shot setting remains a central challenge in robotics. Current multimodal foundation based approaches, despite their capabilities, typically fail to decompose high-level commands into executable action sequences from static visual input alone. To address this challenge, we introduce Super-Mimic, a hierarchical framework that enables zero-shot robotic imitation by directly inferring procedural intent from unscripted human demonstration videos. Our framework is composed of two sequential modules. First, a Human Intent Translator (HIT) parses the input video using multimodal reasoning to produce a sequence of language-grounded subtasks. These subtasks then condition a Future Dynamics Predictor (FDP), which employs a generative model that synthesizes a physically plausible video rollout for each step. The resulting visual trajectories are dynamics-aware, explicitly modeling crucial object interactions and contact points to guide the low-level controller. We validate this approach through extensive experiments on a suite of long-horizon manipulation tasks, where Super-Mimic significantly outperforms state-of-the-art zero-shot methods by over 20%. These results establish that coupling video-driven intent parsing with prospective dynamics modeling is a highly effective strategy for developing general-purpose robotic systems.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 26

Harnessing Uncertainty: Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients for Long-Horizon LLM Agents

In long-horizon tasks, recent agents based on Large Language Models (LLMs) face a significant challenge that sparse, outcome-based rewards make it difficult to assign credit to intermediate steps. Previous methods mainly focus on creating dense reward signals to guide learning, either through traditional reinforcement learning techniques like inverse reinforcement learning or by using Process Reward Models for step-by-step feedback. In this paper, we identify a fundamental problem in the learning dynamics of LLMs: the magnitude of policy gradients is inherently coupled with the entropy, which leads to inefficient small updates for confident correct actions and potentially destabilizes large updates for uncertain ones. To resolve this, we propose Entropy-Modulated Policy Gradients (EMPG), a framework that re-calibrates the learning signal based on step-wise uncertainty and the final task outcome. EMPG amplifies updates for confident correct actions, penalizes confident errors, and attenuates updates from uncertain steps to stabilize exploration. We further introduce a bonus term for future clarity that encourages agents to find more predictable solution paths. Through comprehensive experiments on three challenging agent tasks, WebShop, ALFWorld, and Deep Search, we demonstrate that EMPG achieves substantial performance gains and significantly outperforms strong policy gradient baselines. Project page is at https://empgseed-seed.github.io/

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 11 4

DeformPAM: Data-Efficient Learning for Long-horizon Deformable Object Manipulation via Preference-based Action Alignment

In recent years, imitation learning has made progress in the field of robotic manipulation. However, it still faces challenges when dealing with complex long-horizon deformable object tasks, such as high-dimensional state spaces, complex dynamics, and multimodal action distributions. Traditional imitation learning methods often require a large amount of data and encounter distributional shifts and accumulative errors in these tasks. To address these issues, we propose a data-efficient general learning framework (DeformPAM) based on preference learning and reward-guided action selection. DeformPAM decomposes long-horizon tasks into multiple action primitives, utilizes 3D point cloud inputs and diffusion models to model action distributions, and trains an implicit reward model using human preference data. During the inference phase, the reward model scores multiple candidate actions, selecting the optimal action for execution, thereby reducing the occurrence of anomalous actions and improving task completion quality. Experiments conducted on three challenging real-world long-horizon deformable object manipulation tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of this method. Results show that DeformPAM improves both task completion quality and efficiency compared to baseline methods even with limited data. Code and data will be available at https://deform-pam.robotflow.ai.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 15, 2024

PAN: A World Model for General, Interactable, and Long-Horizon World Simulation

A world model enables an intelligent agent to imagine, predict, and reason about how the world evolves in response to its actions, and accordingly to plan and strategize. While recent video generation models produce realistic visual sequences, they typically operate in the prompt-to-full-video manner without causal control, interactivity, or long-horizon consistency required for purposeful reasoning. Existing world modeling efforts, on the other hand, often focus on restricted domains (e.g., physical, game, or 3D-scene dynamics) with limited depth and controllability, and struggle to generalize across diverse environments and interaction formats. In this work, we introduce PAN, a general, interactable, and long-horizon world model that predicts future world states through high-quality video simulation conditioned on history and natural language actions. PAN employs the Generative Latent Prediction (GLP) architecture that combines an autoregressive latent dynamics backbone based on a large language model (LLM), which grounds simulation in extensive text-based knowledge and enables conditioning on language-specified actions, with a video diffusion decoder that reconstructs perceptually detailed and temporally coherent visual observations, to achieve a unification between latent space reasoning (imagination) and realizable world dynamics (reality). Trained on large-scale video-action pairs spanning diverse domains, PAN supports open-domain, action-conditioned simulation with coherent, long-term dynamics. Extensive experiments show that PAN achieves strong performance in action-conditioned world simulation, long-horizon forecasting, and simulative reasoning compared to other video generators and world models, taking a step towards general world models that enable predictive simulation of future world states for reasoning and acting.

Human-Object Interaction with Vision-Language Model Guided Relative Movement Dynamics

Human-Object Interaction (HOI) is vital for advancing simulation, animation, and robotics, enabling the generation of long-term, physically plausible motions in 3D environments. However, existing methods often fall short of achieving physics realism and supporting diverse types of interactions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a unified Human-Object Interaction framework that provides unified control over interactions with static scenes and dynamic objects using language commands. The interactions between human and object parts can always be described as the continuous stable Relative Movement Dynamics (RMD) between human and object parts. By leveraging the world knowledge and scene perception capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs), we translate language commands into RMD diagrams, which are used to guide goal-conditioned reinforcement learning for sequential interaction with objects. Our framework supports long-horizon interactions among dynamic, articulated, and static objects. To support the training and evaluation of our framework, we present a new dataset named Interplay, which includes multi-round task plans generated by VLMs, covering both static and dynamic HOI tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed framework can effectively handle a wide range of HOI tasks, showcasing its ability to maintain long-term, multi-round transitions. For more details, please refer to our project webpage: https://rmd-hoi.github.io/.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 24

Reward Forcing: Efficient Streaming Video Generation with Rewarded Distribution Matching Distillation

Efficient streaming video generation is critical for simulating interactive and dynamic worlds. Existing methods distill few-step video diffusion models with sliding window attention, using initial frames as sink tokens to maintain attention performance and reduce error accumulation. However, video frames become overly dependent on these static tokens, resulting in copied initial frames and diminished motion dynamics. To address this, we introduce Reward Forcing, a novel framework with two key designs. First, we propose EMA-Sink, which maintains fixed-size tokens initialized from initial frames and continuously updated by fusing evicted tokens via exponential moving average as they exit the sliding window. Without additional computation cost, EMA-Sink tokens capture both long-term context and recent dynamics, preventing initial frame copying while maintaining long-horizon consistency. Second, to better distill motion dynamics from teacher models, we propose a novel Rewarded Distribution Matching Distillation (Re-DMD). Vanilla distribution matching treats every training sample equally, limiting the model's ability to prioritize dynamic content. Instead, Re-DMD biases the model's output distribution toward high-reward regions by prioritizing samples with greater dynamics rated by a vision-language model. Re-DMD significantly enhances motion quality while preserving data fidelity. We include both quantitative and qualitative experiments to show that Reward Forcing achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks while enabling high-quality streaming video generation at 23.1 FPS on a single H100 GPU.

Are Video Models Ready as Zero-Shot Reasoners? An Empirical Study with the MME-CoF Benchmark

Recent video generation models can produce high-fidelity, temporally coherent videos, indicating that they may encode substantial world knowledge. Beyond realistic synthesis, they also exhibit emerging behaviors indicative of visual perception, modeling, and manipulation. Yet, an important question still remains: Are video models ready to serve as zero-shot reasoners in challenging visual reasoning scenarios? In this work, we conduct an empirical study to comprehensively investigate this question, focusing on the leading and popular Veo-3. We evaluate its reasoning behavior across 12 dimensions, including spatial, geometric, physical, temporal, and embodied logic, systematically characterizing both its strengths and failure modes. To standardize this study, we curate the evaluation data into MME-CoF, a compact benchmark that enables in-depth and thorough assessment of Chain-of-Frame (CoF) reasoning. Our findings reveal that while current video models demonstrate promising reasoning patterns on short-horizon spatial coherence, fine-grained grounding, and locally consistent dynamics, they remain limited in long-horizon causal reasoning, strict geometric constraints, and abstract logic. Overall, they are not yet reliable as standalone zero-shot reasoners, but exhibit encouraging signs as complementary visual engines alongside dedicated reasoning models. Project page: https://video-cof.github.io

Mastering Multi-Drone Volleyball through Hierarchical Co-Self-Play Reinforcement Learning

In this paper, we tackle the problem of learning to play 3v3 multi-drone volleyball, a new embodied competitive task that requires both high-level strategic coordination and low-level agile control. The task is turn-based, multi-agent, and physically grounded, posing significant challenges due to its long-horizon dependencies, tight inter-agent coupling, and the underactuated dynamics of quadrotors. To address this, we propose Hierarchical Co-Self-Play (HCSP), a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework that separates centralized high-level strategic decision-making from decentralized low-level motion control. We design a three-stage population-based training pipeline to enable both strategy and skill to emerge from scratch without expert demonstrations: (I) training diverse low-level skills, (II) learning high-level strategy via self-play with fixed low-level skills, and (III) joint fine-tuning through co-self-play. Experiments show that HCSP achieves superior performance, outperforming non-hierarchical self-play and rule-based hierarchical baselines with an average 82.9% win rate and a 71.5% win rate against the two-stage variant. Moreover, co-self-play leads to emergent team behaviors such as role switching and coordinated formations, demonstrating the effectiveness of our hierarchical design and training scheme. The project page is at https://sites.google.com/view/hi-co-self-play.

  • 9 authors
·
May 7

TrajBooster: Boosting Humanoid Whole-Body Manipulation via Trajectory-Centric Learning

Recent Vision-Language-Action models show potential to generalize across embodiments but struggle to quickly align with a new robot's action space when high-quality demonstrations are scarce, especially for bipedal humanoids. We present TrajBooster, a cross-embodiment framework that leverages abundant wheeled-humanoid data to boost bipedal VLA. Our key idea is to use end-effector trajectories as a morphology-agnostic interface. TrajBooster (i) extracts 6D dual-arm end-effector trajectories from real-world wheeled humanoids, (ii) retargets them in simulation to Unitree G1 with a whole-body controller trained via a heuristic-enhanced harmonized online DAgger to lift low-dimensional trajectory references into feasible high-dimensional whole-body actions, and (iii) forms heterogeneous triplets that couple source vision/language with target humanoid-compatible actions to post-pre-train a VLA, followed by only 10 minutes of teleoperation data collection on the target humanoid domain. Deployed on Unitree G1, our policy achieves beyond-tabletop household tasks, enabling squatting, cross-height manipulation, and coordinated whole-body motion with markedly improved robustness and generalization. Results show that TrajBooster allows existing wheeled-humanoid data to efficiently strengthen bipedal humanoid VLA performance, reducing reliance on costly same-embodiment data while enhancing action space understanding and zero-shot skill transfer capabilities. For more details, For more details, please refer to our https://jiachengliu3.github.io/TrajBooster/.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 15

NavForesee: A Unified Vision-Language World Model for Hierarchical Planning and Dual-Horizon Navigation Prediction

Embodied navigation for long-horizon tasks, guided by complex natural language instructions, remains a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Existing agents often struggle with robust long-term planning about unseen environments, leading to high failure rates. To address these limitations, we introduce NavForesee, a novel Vision-Language Model (VLM) that unifies high-level language planning and predictive world model imagination within a single, unified framework. Our approach empowers a single VLM to concurrently perform planning and predictive foresight. Conditioned on the full instruction and historical observations, the model is trained to understand the navigation instructions by decomposing the task, tracking its progress, and formulating the subsequent sub-goal. Simultaneously, it functions as a generative world model, providing crucial foresight by predicting short-term environmental dynamics and long-term navigation milestones. The VLM's structured plan guides its targeted prediction, while the imagined future provides rich context to inform the navigation actions, creating a powerful internal feedback loop of perception-planning/prediction-action. We demonstrate through extensive experiments on the R2R-CE and RxR-CE benchmark that NavForesee achieves highly competitive performance in complex scenarios. Our work highlights the immense potential of fusing explicit language planning with implicit spatiotemporal prediction, paving the way for more intelligent and capable embodied agents.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 1

Structured Preference Optimization for Vision-Language Long-Horizon Task Planning

Existing methods for vision-language task planning excel in short-horizon tasks but often fall short in complex, long-horizon planning within dynamic environments. These challenges primarily arise from the difficulty of effectively training models to produce high-quality reasoning processes for long-horizon tasks. To address this, we propose Structured Preference Optimization (SPO), which aims to enhance reasoning and action selection in long-horizon task planning through structured preference evaluation and optimized training strategies. Specifically, SPO introduces: 1) Preference-Based Scoring and Optimization, which systematically evaluates reasoning chains based on task relevance, visual grounding, and historical consistency; and 2) Curriculum-Guided Training, where the model progressively adapts from simple to complex tasks, improving its generalization ability in long-horizon scenarios and enhancing reasoning robustness. To advance research in vision-language long-horizon task planning, we introduce ExtendaBench, a comprehensive benchmark covering 1,509 tasks across VirtualHome and Habitat 2.0, categorized into ultra-short, short, medium, and long tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that SPO significantly improves reasoning quality and final decision accuracy, outperforming prior methods on long-horizon tasks and underscoring the effectiveness of preference-driven optimization in vision-language task planning. Specifically, SPO achieves a +5.98% GCR and +4.68% SR improvement in VirtualHome and a +3.30% GCR and +2.11% SR improvement in Habitat over the best-performing baselines.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 28

MobileUse: A GUI Agent with Hierarchical Reflection for Autonomous Mobile Operation

Recent advances in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have enabled the development of mobile agents that can understand visual inputs and follow user instructions, unlocking new possibilities for automating complex tasks on mobile devices. However, applying these models to real-world mobile scenarios remains a significant challenge due to the long-horizon task execution, difficulty in error recovery, and the cold-start problem in unfamiliar environments. To address these challenges, we propose MobileUse, a GUI agent designed for robust and adaptive mobile task execution. To improve resilience in long-horizon tasks and dynamic environments, we introduce a hierarchical reflection architecture that enables the agent to self-monitor, detect, and recover from errors across multiple temporal scales-ranging from individual actions to overall task completion-while maintaining efficiency through a reflection-on-demand strategy. To tackle cold-start issues, we further introduce a proactive exploration module, which enriches the agent's understanding of the environment through self-planned exploration. Evaluations on AndroidWorld and AndroidLab benchmarks demonstrate that MobileUse establishes new state-of-the-art performance, achieving success rates of 62.9% and 44.2%, respectively. To facilitate real-world applications, we release an out-of-the-box toolkit for automated task execution on physical mobile devices, which is available at https://github.com/MadeAgents/mobile-use.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 21

Towards Long-Horizon Vision-Language Navigation: Platform, Benchmark and Method

Existing Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) methods primarily focus on single-stage navigation, limiting their effectiveness in multi-stage and long-horizon tasks within complex and dynamic environments. To address these limitations, we propose a novel VLN task, named Long-Horizon Vision-Language Navigation (LH-VLN), which emphasizes long-term planning and decision consistency across consecutive subtasks. Furthermore, to support LH-VLN, we develop an automated data generation platform NavGen, which constructs datasets with complex task structures and improves data utility through a bidirectional, multi-granularity generation approach. To accurately evaluate complex tasks, we construct the Long-Horizon Planning and Reasoning in VLN (LHPR-VLN) benchmark consisting of 3,260 tasks with an average of 150 task steps, serving as the first dataset specifically designed for the long-horizon vision-language navigation task. Furthermore, we propose Independent Success Rate (ISR), Conditional Success Rate (CSR), and CSR weight by Ground Truth (CGT) metrics, to provide fine-grained assessments of task completion. To improve model adaptability in complex tasks, we propose a novel Multi-Granularity Dynamic Memory (MGDM) module that integrates short-term memory blurring with long-term memory retrieval to enable flexible navigation in dynamic environments. Our platform, benchmark and method supply LH-VLN with a robust data generation pipeline, comprehensive model evaluation dataset, reasonable metrics, and a novel VLN model, establishing a foundational framework for advancing LH-VLN.

  • 6 authors
·
Dec 12, 2024

IterResearch: Rethinking Long-Horizon Agents via Markovian State Reconstruction

Recent advances in deep-research agents have shown promise for autonomous knowledge construction through dynamic reasoning over external sources. However, existing approaches rely on a mono-contextual paradigm that accumulates all information in a single, expanding context window, leading to context suffocation and noise contamination that limit their effectiveness on long-horizon tasks. We introduce IterResearch, a novel iterative deep-research paradigm that reformulates long-horizon research as a Markov Decision Process with strategic workspace reconstruction. By maintaining an evolving report as memory and periodically synthesizing insights, our approach preserves consistent reasoning capacity across arbitrary exploration depths. We further develop Efficiency-Aware Policy Optimization (EAPO), a reinforcement learning framework that incentivizes efficient exploration through geometric reward discounting and enables stable distributed training via adaptive downsampling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that IterResearch achieves substantial improvements over existing open-source agents with average +14.5pp across six benchmarks and narrows the gap with frontier proprietary systems. Remarkably, our paradigm exhibits unprecedented interaction scaling, extending to 2048 interactions with dramatic performance gains (from 3.5\% to 42.5\%), and serves as an effective prompting strategy, improving frontier models by up to 19.2pp over ReAct on long-horizon tasks. These findings position IterResearch as a versatile solution for long-horizon reasoning, effective both as a trained agent and as a prompting paradigm for frontier models.

  • 16 authors
·
Nov 10 10

Memory as Action: Autonomous Context Curation for Long-Horizon Agentic Tasks

Large Language Models face challenges in long-horizon agentic tasks as their constrained memory is easily overwhelmed by distracting or irrelevant context. Existing working memory methods typically rely on external, heuristic mechanisms that are decoupled from the agent's core policy. In this work, we reframe working memory management as a learnable, intrinsic capability. We propose a novel framework, Memory-as-Action, where an agent actively manages its working memory by executing explicit editing operations as part of a unified policy. This formulation allows an agent, trained via reinforcement learning, to balance memory curation against long-term task objectives under given resource constraints. However, such memory editing actions break the standard assumption of a continuously growing prefix in LLM interactions, leading to what we call trajectory fractures. These non-prefix changes disrupt the causal continuity required by standard policy gradient methods, making those methods inapplicable. To address this, we propose a new algorithm, Dynamic Context Policy Optimization, which enables stable end-to-end reinforcement learning by segmenting trajectories at memory action points and applying trajectory-level advantages to the resulting action segments. Our results demonstrate that jointly optimizing for task reasoning and memory management in an end-to-end fashion not only reduces overall computational consumption but also improves task performance, driven by adaptive context curation strategies tailored to the model's intrinsic capabilities.

MIND-V: Hierarchical Video Generation for Long-Horizon Robotic Manipulation with RL-based Physical Alignment

Embodied imitation learning is constrained by the scarcity of diverse, long-horizon robotic manipulation data. Existing video generation models for this domain are limited to synthesizing short clips of simple actions and often rely on manually defined trajectories. To this end, we introduce MIND-V, a hierarchical framework designed to synthesize physically plausible and logically coherent videos of long-horizon robotic manipulation. Inspired by cognitive science, MIND-V bridges high-level reasoning with pixel-level synthesis through three core components: a Semantic Reasoning Hub (SRH) that leverages a pre-trained vision-language model for task planning; a Behavioral Semantic Bridge (BSB) that translates abstract instructions into domain-invariant representations; and a Motor Video Generator (MVG) for conditional video rendering. MIND-V employs Staged Visual Future Rollouts, a test-time optimization strategy to enhance long-horizon robustness. To align the generated videos with physical laws, we introduce a GRPO reinforcement learning post-training phase guided by a novel Physical Foresight Coherence (PFC) reward. PFC leverages the V-JEPA world model to enforce physical plausibility by aligning the predicted and actual dynamic evolutions in the feature space. MIND-V demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in long-horizon robotic manipulation video generation, establishing a scalable and controllable paradigm for embodied data synthesis.

RoboCerebra: A Large-scale Benchmark for Long-horizon Robotic Manipulation Evaluation

Recent advances in vision-language models (VLMs) have enabled instruction-conditioned robotic systems with improved generalization. However, most existing work focuses on reactive System 1 policies, underutilizing VLMs' strengths in semantic reasoning and long-horizon planning. These System 2 capabilities-characterized by deliberative, goal-directed thinking-remain under explored due to the limited temporal scale and structural complexity of current benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce RoboCerebra, a benchmark for evaluating high-level reasoning in long-horizon robotic manipulation. RoboCerebra includes: (1) a large-scale simulation dataset with extended task horizons and diverse subtask sequences in household environments; (2) a hierarchical framework combining a high-level VLM planner with a low-level vision-language-action (VLA) controller; and (3) an evaluation protocol targeting planning, reflection, and memory through structured System 1-System 2 interaction. The dataset is constructed via a top-down pipeline, where GPT generates task instructions and decomposes them into subtask sequences. Human operators execute the subtasks in simulation, yielding high-quality trajectories with dynamic object variations. Compared to prior benchmarks, RoboCerebra features significantly longer action sequences and denser annotations. We further benchmark state-of-the-art VLMs as System 2 modules and analyze their performance across key cognitive dimensions, advancing the development of more capable and generalizable robotic planners.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 7

ODYSSEY: Open-World Quadrupeds Exploration and Manipulation for Long-Horizon Tasks

Language-guided long-horizon mobile manipulation has long been a grand challenge in embodied semantic reasoning, generalizable manipulation, and adaptive locomotion. Three fundamental limitations hinder progress: First, although large language models have improved spatial reasoning and task planning through semantic priors, existing implementations remain confined to tabletop scenarios, failing to address the constrained perception and limited actuation ranges of mobile platforms. Second, current manipulation strategies exhibit insufficient generalization when confronted with the diverse object configurations encountered in open-world environments. Third, while crucial for practical deployment, the dual requirement of maintaining high platform maneuverability alongside precise end-effector control in unstructured settings remains understudied. In this work, we present ODYSSEY, a unified mobile manipulation framework for agile quadruped robots equipped with manipulators, which seamlessly integrates high-level task planning with low-level whole-body control. To address the challenge of egocentric perception in language-conditioned tasks, we introduce a hierarchical planner powered by a vision-language model, enabling long-horizon instruction decomposition and precise action execution. At the control level, our novel whole-body policy achieves robust coordination across challenging terrains. We further present the first benchmark for long-horizon mobile manipulation, evaluating diverse indoor and outdoor scenarios. Through successful sim-to-real transfer, we demonstrate the system's generalization and robustness in real-world deployments, underscoring the practicality of legged manipulators in unstructured environments. Our work advances the feasibility of generalized robotic assistants capable of complex, dynamic tasks. Our project page: https://kaijwang.github.io/odyssey.github.io/

  • 10 authors
·
Aug 11 3

U2UData-2: A Scalable Swarm UAVs Autonomous Flight Dataset for Long-horizon Tasks

Swarm UAV autonomous flight for Long-Horizon (LH) tasks is crucial for advancing the low-altitude economy. However, existing methods focus only on specific basic tasks due to dataset limitations, failing in real-world deployment for LH tasks. LH tasks are not mere concatenations of basic tasks, requiring handling long-term dependencies, maintaining persistent states, and adapting to dynamic goal shifts. This paper presents U2UData-2, the first large-scale swarm UAV autonomous flight dataset for LH tasks and the first scalable swarm UAV data online collection and algorithm closed-loop verification platform. The dataset is captured by 15 UAVs in autonomous collaborative flights for LH tasks, comprising 12 scenes, 720 traces, 120 hours, 600 seconds per trajectory, 4.32M LiDAR frames, and 12.96M RGB frames. This dataset also includes brightness, temperature, humidity, smoke, and airflow values covering all flight routes. The platform supports the customization of simulators, UAVs, sensors, flight algorithms, formation modes, and LH tasks. Through a visual control window, this platform allows users to collect customized datasets through one-click deployment online and to verify algorithms by closed-loop simulation. U2UData-2 also introduces an LH task for wildlife conservation and provides comprehensive benchmarks with 9 SOTA models. U2UData-2 can be found at https://fengtt42.github.io/U2UData-2/.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 25

EntroPE: Entropy-Guided Dynamic Patch Encoder for Time Series Forecasting

Transformer-based models have significantly advanced time series forecasting, with patch-based input strategies offering efficiency and improved long-horizon modeling. Yet, existing approaches rely on temporally-agnostic patch construction, where arbitrary starting positions and fixed lengths fracture temporal coherence by splitting natural transitions across boundaries. This naive segmentation often disrupts short-term dependencies and weakens representation learning. In response, we propose EntroPE (Entropy-Guided Dynamic Patch Encoder), a novel, temporally informed framework that dynamically detects transition points via conditional entropy and dynamically places patch boundaries. This preserves temporal structure while retaining the computational benefits of patching. EntroPE consists of two key modules, namely an Entropy-based Dynamic Patcher (EDP) that applies information-theoretic criteria to locate natural temporal shifts and determine patch boundaries, and an Adaptive Patch Encoder (APE) that employs pooling and cross-attention to capture intra-patch dependencies and produce fixed-size latent representations. These embeddings are then processed by a global transformer to model inter-patch dynamics. Experiments across long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that EntroPE improves both accuracy and efficiency, establishing entropy-guided dynamic patching as a promising new paradigm for time series modeling. Code is available at: https://github.com/Sachithx/EntroPE.

EmbodiedVSR: Dynamic Scene Graph-Guided Chain-of-Thought Reasoning for Visual Spatial Tasks

While multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have made groundbreaking progress in embodied intelligence, they still face significant challenges in spatial reasoning for complex long-horizon tasks. To address this gap, we propose EmbodiedVSR (Embodied Visual Spatial Reasoning), a novel framework that integrates dynamic scene graph-guided Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning to enhance spatial understanding for embodied agents. By explicitly constructing structured knowledge representations through dynamic scene graphs, our method enables zero-shot spatial reasoning without task-specific fine-tuning. This approach not only disentangles intricate spatial relationships but also aligns reasoning steps with actionable environmental dynamics. To rigorously evaluate performance, we introduce the eSpatial-Benchmark, a comprehensive dataset including real-world embodied scenarios with fine-grained spatial annotations and adaptive task difficulty levels. Experiments demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms existing MLLM-based methods in accuracy and reasoning coherence, particularly in long-horizon tasks requiring iterative environment interaction. The results reveal the untapped potential of MLLMs for embodied intelligence when equipped with structured, explainable reasoning mechanisms, paving the way for more reliable deployment in real-world spatial applications. The codes and datasets will be released soon.

  • 16 authors
·
Mar 14

Beyond Turn Limits: Training Deep Search Agents with Dynamic Context Window

While recent advances in reasoning models have demonstrated cognitive behaviors through reinforcement learning, existing approaches struggle to invoke deep reasoning capabilities in multi-turn agents with long-horizon interactions. We propose DeepMiner, a novel framework that elicits such abilities by introducing high-difficulty training tasks and dynamic context window. DeepMiner presents a reverse construction method to generate complex but verifiable question-answer pairs from authentic web sources, which ensures the challenge and reliability of training data while injecting cognitive capabilities into multi-turn reasoning scenarios. We further design an elegant yet effective dynamic context management strategy for both training and inference, utilizing sliding window mechanisms while eliminating the dependency on external summarization models, thereby efficiently empowering the model to handle continuously expanding long-horizon contexts. Through reinforcement learning on Qwen3-32B, we develop DeepMiner-32B, which achieves substantial performance improvements across multiple search agent benchmarks. DeepMiner attains 33.5% accuracy on BrowseComp-en, surpassing the previous best open-source agent by almost 20 percentage points, and demonstrates consistent improvements on BrowseComp-zh, XBench-DeepSearch, and GAIA. Notably, our dynamic context management enables sustained interactions of nearly 100 turns within standard 32k context length, effectively addressing the context limitations that constrain existing multi-turn interaction systems.

Atomic-to-Compositional Generalization for Mobile Agents with A New Benchmark and Scheduling System

Autonomous agents powered by multimodal large language models have been developed to facilitate task execution on mobile devices. However, prior work has predominantly focused on atomic tasks -- such as shot-chain execution tasks and single-screen grounding tasks -- while overlooking the generalization to compositional tasks, which are indispensable for real-world applications. This work introduces UI-NEXUS, a comprehensive benchmark designed to evaluate mobile agents on three categories of compositional operations: Simple Concatenation, Context Transition, and Deep Dive. UI-NEXUS supports interactive evaluation in 20 fully controllable local utility app environments, as well as 30 online Chinese and English service apps. It comprises 100 interactive task templates with an average optimal step count of 14.05. Experimental results across a range of mobile agents with agentic workflow or agent-as-a-model show that UI-NEXUS presents significant challenges. Specifically, existing agents generally struggle to balance performance and efficiency, exhibiting representative failure modes such as under-execution, over-execution, and attention drift, causing visible atomic-to-compositional generalization gap. Inspired by these findings, we propose AGENT-NEXUS, a lightweight and efficient scheduling system to tackle compositional mobile tasks. AGENT-NEXUS extrapolates the abilities of existing mobile agents by dynamically decomposing long-horizon tasks to a series of self-contained atomic subtasks. AGENT-NEXUS achieves 24% to 40% task success rate improvement for existing mobile agents on compositional operation tasks within the UI-NEXUS benchmark without significantly sacrificing inference overhead. The demo video, dataset, and code are available on the project page at https://ui-nexus.github.io.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 10

RePLan: Robotic Replanning with Perception and Language Models

Advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their potential in facilitating high-level reasoning, logical reasoning and robotics planning. Recently, LLMs have also been able to generate reward functions for low-level robot actions, effectively bridging the interface between high-level planning and low-level robot control. However, the challenge remains that even with syntactically correct plans, robots can still fail to achieve their intended goals. This failure can be attributed to imperfect plans proposed by LLMs or to unforeseeable environmental circumstances that hinder the execution of planned subtasks due to erroneous assumptions about the state of objects. One way to prevent these challenges is to rely on human-provided step-by-step instructions, limiting the autonomy of robotic systems. Vision Language Models (VLMs) have shown remarkable success in tasks such as visual question answering and image captioning. Leveraging the capabilities of VLMs, we present a novel framework called Robotic Replanning with Perception and Language Models (RePLan) that enables real-time replanning capabilities for long-horizon tasks. This framework utilizes the physical grounding provided by a VLM's understanding of the world's state to adapt robot actions when the initial plan fails to achieve the desired goal. We test our approach within four environments containing seven long-horizion tasks. We find that RePLan enables a robot to successfully adapt to unforeseen obstacles while accomplishing open-ended, long-horizon goals, where baseline models cannot. Find more information at https://replan-lm.github.io/replan.github.io/

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 8, 2024

WebAgent-R1: Training Web Agents via End-to-End Multi-Turn Reinforcement Learning

While reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated remarkable success in enhancing large language models (LLMs), it has primarily focused on single-turn tasks such as solving math problems. Training effective web agents for multi-turn interactions remains challenging due to the complexity of long-horizon decision-making across dynamic web interfaces. In this work, we present WebAgent-R1, a simple yet effective end-to-end multi-turn RL framework for training web agents. It learns directly from online interactions with web environments by asynchronously generating diverse trajectories, entirely guided by binary rewards depending on task success. Experiments on the WebArena-Lite benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of WebAgent-R1, boosting the task success rate of Qwen-2.5-3B from 6.1% to 33.9% and Llama-3.1-8B from 8.5% to 44.8%, significantly outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods and strong proprietary models such as OpenAI o3. In-depth analyses reveal the effectiveness of the thinking-based prompting strategy and test-time scaling through increased interactions for web tasks. We further investigate different RL initialization policies by introducing two variants, namely WebAgent-R1-Zero and WebAgent-R1-CoT, which highlight the importance of the warm-up training stage (i.e., behavior cloning) and provide insights on incorporating long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning in web agents.

PointVLA: Injecting the 3D World into Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models excel at robotic tasks by leveraging large-scale 2D vision-language pretraining, but their reliance on RGB images limits spatial reasoning critical for real-world interaction. Retraining these models with 3D data is computationally prohibitive, while discarding existing 2D datasets wastes valuable resources. To bridge this gap, we propose PointVLA, a framework that enhances pre-trained VLAs with point cloud inputs without requiring retraining. Our method freezes the vanilla action expert and injects 3D features via a lightweight modular block. To identify the most effective way of integrating point cloud representations, we conduct a skip-block analysis to pinpoint less useful blocks in the vanilla action expert, ensuring that 3D features are injected only into these blocks--minimizing disruption to pre-trained representations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PointVLA outperforms state-of-the-art 2D imitation learning methods, such as OpenVLA, Diffusion Policy and DexVLA, across both simulated and real-world robotic tasks. Specifically, we highlight several key advantages of PointVLA enabled by point cloud integration: (1) Few-shot multi-tasking, where PointVLA successfully performs four different tasks using only 20 demonstrations each; (2) Real-vs-photo discrimination, where PointVLA distinguishes real objects from their images, leveraging 3D world knowledge to improve safety and reliability; (3) Height adaptability, Unlike conventional 2D imitation learning methods, PointVLA enables robots to adapt to objects at varying table height that unseen in train data. Furthermore, PointVLA achieves strong performance in long-horizon tasks, such as picking and packing objects from a moving conveyor belt, showcasing its ability to generalize across complex, dynamic environments.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 10

RoboRefer: Towards Spatial Referring with Reasoning in Vision-Language Models for Robotics

Spatial referring is a fundamental capability of embodied robots to interact with the 3D physical world. However, even with the powerful pretrained vision language models (VLMs), recent approaches are still not qualified to accurately understand the complex 3D scenes and dynamically reason about the instruction-indicated locations for interaction. To this end, we propose RoboRefer, a 3D-aware VLM that can first achieve precise spatial understanding by integrating a disentangled but dedicated depth encoder via supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Moreover, RoboRefer advances generalized multi-step spatial reasoning via reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), with metric-sensitive process reward functions tailored for spatial referring tasks. To support SFT and RFT training, we introduce RefSpatial, a large-scale dataset of 20M QA pairs (2x prior), covering 31 spatial relations (vs. 15 prior) and supporting complex reasoning processes (up to 5 steps). In addition, we introduce RefSpatial-Bench, a challenging benchmark filling the gap in evaluating spatial referring with multi-step reasoning. Experiments show that SFT-trained RoboRefer achieves state-of-the-art spatial understanding, with an average success rate of 89.6%. RFT-trained RoboRefer further outperforms all other baselines by a large margin, even surpassing Gemini-2.5-Pro by 17.4% in average accuracy on RefSpatial-Bench. Notably, RoboRefer can be integrated with various control policies to execute long-horizon, dynamic tasks across diverse robots (e,g., UR5, G1 humanoid) in cluttered real-world scenes.

Robix: A Unified Model for Robot Interaction, Reasoning and Planning

We introduce Robix, a unified model that integrates robot reasoning, task planning, and natural language interaction within a single vision-language architecture. Acting as the high-level cognitive layer in a hierarchical robot system, Robix dynamically generates atomic commands for the low-level controller and verbal responses for human interaction, enabling robots to follow complex instructions, plan long-horizon tasks, and interact naturally with human within an end-to-end framework. Robix further introduces novel capabilities such as proactive dialogue, real-time interruption handling, and context-aware commonsense reasoning during task execution. At its core, Robix leverages chain-of-thought reasoning and adopts a three-stage training strategy: (1) continued pretraining to enhance foundational embodied reasoning abilities including 3D spatial understanding, visual grounding, and task-centric reasoning; (2) supervised finetuning to model human-robot interaction and task planning as a unified reasoning-action sequence; and (3) reinforcement learning to improve reasoning-action consistency and long-horizon task coherence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Robix outperforms both open-source and commercial baselines (e.g., GPT-4o and Gemini 2.5 Pro) in interactive task execution, demonstrating strong generalization across diverse instruction types (e.g., open-ended, multi-stage, constrained, invalid, and interrupted) and various user-involved tasks such as table bussing, grocery shopping, and dietary filtering.

Society of Mind Meets Real-Time Strategy: A Hierarchical Multi-Agent Framework for Strategic Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive action sequence prediction capabilities but often struggle with dynamic, long-horizon tasks such as real-time strategic games. In a game such as StarCraftII (SC2), agents need to manage resource constraints and adapt to evolving battlefield situations in a partially observable environment. This often overwhelms exisiting LLM-based approaches. To address these challenges, we propose a hierarchical multi-agent framework that employs specialized imitation learning agents under a meta-controller called Strategic Planner (SP). By expert demonstrations, each specialized agent learns a distinctive strategy, such as aerial support or defensive maneuvers, and produces coherent, structured multistep action sequences. The SP then orchestrates these proposals into a single, environmentally adaptive plan that ensures local decisions aligning with long-term strategies. We call this HIMA (Hierarchical Imitation Multi-Agent). We also present TEXTSCII-ALL, a comprehensive SC2 testbed that encompasses all race match combinations in SC2. Our empirical results show that HIMA outperforms state of the arts in strategic clarity, adaptability, and computational efficiency, underscoring the potential of combining specialized imitation modules with meta-level orchestration to develop more robust, general-purpose AI agents.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 8

Deep Research Agents: A Systematic Examination And Roadmap

The rapid progress of Large Language Models (LLMs) has given rise to a new category of autonomous AI systems, referred to as Deep Research (DR) agents. These agents are designed to tackle complex, multi-turn informational research tasks by leveraging a combination of dynamic reasoning, adaptive long-horizon planning, multi-hop information retrieval, iterative tool use, and the generation of structured analytical reports. In this paper, we conduct a detailed analysis of the foundational technologies and architectural components that constitute Deep Research agents. We begin by reviewing information acquisition strategies, contrasting API-based retrieval methods with browser-based exploration. We then examine modular tool-use frameworks, including code execution, multimodal input processing, and the integration of Model Context Protocols (MCPs) to support extensibility and ecosystem development. To systematize existing approaches, we propose a taxonomy that differentiates between static and dynamic workflows, and we classify agent architectures based on planning strategies and agent composition, including single-agent and multi-agent configurations. We also provide a critical evaluation of current benchmarks, highlighting key limitations such as restricted access to external knowledge, sequential execution inefficiencies, and misalignment between evaluation metrics and the practical objectives of DR agents. Finally, we outline open challenges and promising directions for future research. A curated and continuously updated repository of DR agent research is available at: {https://github.com/ai-agents-2030/awesome-deep-research-agent}.

Learning Robot Soccer from Egocentric Vision with Deep Reinforcement Learning

We apply multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (RL) to train end-to-end robot soccer policies with fully onboard computation and sensing via egocentric RGB vision. This setting reflects many challenges of real-world robotics, including active perception, agile full-body control, and long-horizon planning in a dynamic, partially-observable, multi-agent domain. We rely on large-scale, simulation-based data generation to obtain complex behaviors from egocentric vision which can be successfully transferred to physical robots using low-cost sensors. To achieve adequate visual realism, our simulation combines rigid-body physics with learned, realistic rendering via multiple Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs). We combine teacher-based multi-agent RL and cross-experiment data reuse to enable the discovery of sophisticated soccer strategies. We analyze active-perception behaviors including object tracking and ball seeking that emerge when simply optimizing perception-agnostic soccer play. The agents display equivalent levels of performance and agility as policies with access to privileged, ground-truth state. To our knowledge, this paper constitutes a first demonstration of end-to-end training for multi-agent robot soccer, mapping raw pixel observations to joint-level actions, that can be deployed in the real world. Videos of the game-play and analyses can be seen on our website https://sites.google.com/view/vision-soccer .

  • 16 authors
·
May 3, 2024 1

A Survey on Agentic Multimodal Large Language Models

With the recent emergence of revolutionary autonomous agentic systems, research community is witnessing a significant shift from traditional static, passive, and domain-specific AI agents toward more dynamic, proactive, and generalizable agentic AI. Motivated by the growing interest in agentic AI and its potential trajectory toward AGI, we present a comprehensive survey on Agentic Multimodal Large Language Models (Agentic MLLMs). In this survey, we explore the emerging paradigm of agentic MLLMs, delineating their conceptual foundations and distinguishing characteristics from conventional MLLM-based agents. We establish a conceptual framework that organizes agentic MLLMs along three fundamental dimensions: (i) Agentic internal intelligence functions as the system's commander, enabling accurate long-horizon planning through reasoning, reflection, and memory; (ii) Agentic external tool invocation, whereby models proactively use various external tools to extend their problem-solving capabilities beyond their intrinsic knowledge; and (iii) Agentic environment interaction further situates models within virtual or physical environments, allowing them to take actions, adapt strategies, and sustain goal-directed behavior in dynamic real-world scenarios. To further accelerate research in this area for the community, we compile open-source training frameworks, training and evaluation datasets for developing agentic MLLMs. Finally, we review the downstream applications of agentic MLLMs and outline future research directions for this rapidly evolving field. To continuously track developments in this rapidly evolving field, we will also actively update a public repository at https://github.com/HJYao00/Awesome-Agentic-MLLMs.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 13

Chinese ModernBERT with Whole-Word Masking

Encoder-only Transformers have advanced along three axes -- architecture, data, and systems -- yielding Pareto gains in accuracy, speed, and memory efficiency. Yet these improvements have not fully transferred to Chinese, where tokenization and morphology differ markedly from English. We introduce Chinese ModernBERT, a from-scratch Chinese encoder that couples: (i) a hardware-aware 32k BPE vocabulary tailored to frequent Chinese affixes/compounds, lowering the embedding budget; (ii) whole-word masking (WWM) with a dynamic masking curriculum (30% -> 15%) to align task difficulty with training progress; (iii) a two-stage pre-training pipeline that extends the native context from 1,024 to 8,192 tokens using RoPE and alternating local/global attention; and (iv) a damped-cosine learning-rate schedule for stable long-horizon optimization. We pre-train on ~1.2T Chinese tokens from CCI3-HQ, CCI4 (Chinese), and Cosmopedia-Chinese. On CLUE, Chinese ModernBERT is competitive with strong Chinese encoders under a unified fine-tuning protocol. Under bf16 it achieves high long-sequence throughput while maintaining strong short-sequence speed, reflecting benefits from budget allocation and attention design. To probe retrieval-oriented quality, we add a small amount of open contrastive data: fine-tuning on SimCLUE (~3M pairs) improves further when adding T2Ranking (~2M), reaching 0.505 (Pearson) / 0.537 (Spearman) on the SimCLUE test set. Under this open-data setting, Chinese ModernBERT surpasses Qwen-0.6B-embedding on SimCLUE, suggesting a clear scaling path for STS with additional curated pairs. We will release tokenizer and weights to facilitate reproducible research.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 14

Mamba Integrated with Physics Principles Masters Long-term Chaotic System Forecasting

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

  • 5 authors
·
May 29

Learning Semilinear Neural Operators : A Unified Recursive Framework For Prediction And Data Assimilation

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based solutions face important challenges when dealing with spatio-temporal PDEs over long time scales. Specifically, the current theory of NOs does not present a systematic framework to perform data assimilation and efficiently correct the evolution of PDE solutions over time based on sparsely sampled noisy measurements. In this paper, we propose a learning-based state-space approach to compute the solution operators to infinite-dimensional semilinear PDEs. Exploiting the structure of semilinear PDEs and the theory of nonlinear observers in function spaces, we develop a flexible recursive method that allows for both prediction and data assimilation by combining prediction and correction operations. The proposed framework is capable of producing fast and accurate predictions over long time horizons, dealing with irregularly sampled noisy measurements to correct the solution, and benefits from the decoupling between the spatial and temporal dynamics of this class of PDEs. We show through experiments on the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes and Korteweg-de Vries equations that the proposed model is robust to noise and can leverage arbitrary amounts of measurements to correct its prediction over a long time horizon with little computational overhead.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 23, 2024

Effectively Modeling Time Series with Simple Discrete State Spaces

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 16, 2023

Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systems

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 12, 2023

Self-Forcing++: Towards Minute-Scale High-Quality Video Generation

Diffusion models have revolutionized image and video generation, achieving unprecedented visual quality. However, their reliance on transformer architectures incurs prohibitively high computational costs, particularly when extending generation to long videos. Recent work has explored autoregressive formulations for long video generation, typically by distilling from short-horizon bidirectional teachers. Nevertheless, given that teacher models cannot synthesize long videos, the extrapolation of student models beyond their training horizon often leads to pronounced quality degradation, arising from the compounding of errors within the continuous latent space. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach to mitigate quality degradation in long-horizon video generation without requiring supervision from long-video teachers or retraining on long video datasets. Our approach centers on exploiting the rich knowledge of teacher models to provide guidance for the student model through sampled segments drawn from self-generated long videos. Our method maintains temporal consistency while scaling video length by up to 20x beyond teacher's capability, avoiding common issues such as over-exposure and error-accumulation without recomputing overlapping frames like previous methods. When scaling up the computation, our method shows the capability of generating videos up to 4 minutes and 15 seconds, equivalent to 99.9% of the maximum span supported by our base model's position embedding and more than 50x longer than that of our baseline model. Experiments on standard benchmarks and our proposed improved benchmark demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms baseline methods in both fidelity and consistency. Our long-horizon videos demo can be found at https://self-forcing-plus-plus.github.io/

Mixture of Horizons in Action Chunking

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have shown remarkable capabilities in robotic manipulation, but their performance is sensitive to the action chunk length used during training, termed horizon. Our empirical study reveals an inherent trade-off: longer horizons provide stronger global foresight but degrade fine-grained accuracy, while shorter ones sharpen local control yet struggle on long-term tasks, implying fixed choice of single horizons being suboptimal. To mitigate the trade-off, we propose a mixture of horizons (MoH) strategy. MoH rearranges the action chunk into several segments with different horizons, processes them in parallel with a shared action transformer, and fuses outputs with a light linear gate. It has three appealing benefits. 1) MoH exploits long-term foresight and short-term precision jointly within a single model, improving both performance and generalizability to complex tasks. 2) MoH is plug-and-play for full-attention action modules with minimal training or inference overhead. 3) MoH enables dynamic inference with adaptive horizons, which selects stable actions through cross-horizon consensus, achieving 2.5times higher throughput than baselines while preserving superior performance. Extensive experiments over flow-based policies π_0, π_{0.5}, and one-step regression policy π_{reg} demonstrate that MoH yields consistent and significant gains on both simulations and real-world tasks. Notably, under mixed-task setting, π_{0.5} with MoH reaches a new state-of-the-art with 99% average success rate on LIBERO after only 30k training iterations. Project page: https://github.com/Timsty1/MixtureOfHorizons

  • 10 authors
·
Nov 24 2

Learning Long-Horizon Robot Manipulation Skills via Privileged Action

Long-horizon contact-rich tasks are challenging to learn with reinforcement learning, due to ineffective exploration of high-dimensional state spaces with sparse rewards. The learning process often gets stuck in local optimum and demands task-specific reward fine-tuning for complex scenarios. In this work, we propose a structured framework that leverages privileged actions with curriculum learning, enabling the policy to efficiently acquire long-horizon skills without relying on extensive reward engineering or reference trajectories. Specifically, we use privileged actions in simulation with a general training procedure that would be infeasible to implement in real-world scenarios. These privileges include relaxed constraints and virtual forces that enhance interaction and exploration with objects. Our results successfully achieve complex multi-stage long-horizon tasks that naturally combine non-prehensile manipulation with grasping to lift objects from non-graspable poses. We demonstrate generality by maintaining a parsimonious reward structure and showing convergence to diverse and robust behaviors across various environments. Additionally, real-world experiments further confirm that the skills acquired using our approach are transferable to real-world environments, exhibiting robust and intricate performance. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in these tasks, converging to solutions where others fail.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 21

Chaos as an interpretable benchmark for forecasting and data-driven modelling

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 11, 2021

Yell At Your Robot: Improving On-the-Fly from Language Corrections

Hierarchical policies that combine language and low-level control have been shown to perform impressively long-horizon robotic tasks, by leveraging either zero-shot high-level planners like pretrained language and vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs) or models trained on annotated robotic demonstrations. However, for complex and dexterous skills, attaining high success rates on long-horizon tasks still represents a major challenge -- the longer the task is, the more likely it is that some stage will fail. Can humans help the robot to continuously improve its long-horizon task performance through intuitive and natural feedback? In this paper, we make the following observation: high-level policies that index into sufficiently rich and expressive low-level language-conditioned skills can be readily supervised with human feedback in the form of language corrections. We show that even fine-grained corrections, such as small movements ("move a bit to the left"), can be effectively incorporated into high-level policies, and that such corrections can be readily obtained from humans observing the robot and making occasional suggestions. This framework enables robots not only to rapidly adapt to real-time language feedback, but also incorporate this feedback into an iterative training scheme that improves the high-level policy's ability to correct errors in both low-level execution and high-level decision-making purely from verbal feedback. Our evaluation on real hardware shows that this leads to significant performance improvement in long-horizon, dexterous manipulation tasks without the need for any additional teleoperation. Videos and code are available at https://yay-robot.github.io/.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 19, 2024

R-Horizon: How Far Can Your Large Reasoning Model Really Go in Breadth and Depth?

Recent trends in test-time scaling for reasoning models (e.g., OpenAI o1, DeepSeek-R1) have led to remarkable improvements through long Chain-of-Thought (CoT). However, existing benchmarks mainly focus on immediate, single-horizon tasks, failing to adequately evaluate models' ability to understand and respond to complex, long-horizon scenarios. To address this incomplete evaluation of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), we propose R-HORIZON, a method designed to stimulate long-horizon reasoning behaviors in LRMs through query composition. Based on R-HORIZON, we construct a long-horizon reasoning benchmark, comprising complex multi-step reasoning tasks with interdependent problems that span long reasoning horizons. Through comprehensive evaluation of LRMs using the R-HORIZON benchmark, we find that even the most advanced LRMs suffer significant performance degradation. Our analysis reveals that LRMs exhibit limited effective reasoning length and struggle to allocate thinking budget across multiple problems appropriately. Recognizing these limitations, we use R-HORIZON to construct long-horizon reasoning data for reinforcement learning with verified rewards (RLVR). Compared to training with single-horizon data, RLVR with R-HORIZON not only substantially improves performance on the multi-horizon reasoning tasks, but also promotes accuracy on standard reasoning tasks, with an increase of 7.5 on AIME2024. These results position R-HORIZON as a scalable, controllable, and low-cost paradigm for enhancing and evaluating the long-horizon reasoning capabilities of LRMs.

meituan-longcat LongCat
·
Oct 9 2

RoboHorizon: An LLM-Assisted Multi-View World Model for Long-Horizon Robotic Manipulation

Efficient control in long-horizon robotic manipulation is challenging due to complex representation and policy learning requirements. Model-based visual reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great potential in addressing these challenges but still faces notable limitations, particularly in handling sparse rewards and complex visual features in long-horizon environments. To address these limitations, we propose the Recognize-Sense-Plan-Act (RSPA) pipeline for long-horizon tasks and further introduce RoboHorizon, an LLM-assisted multi-view world model tailored for long-horizon robotic manipulation. In RoboHorizon, pre-trained LLMs generate dense reward structures for multi-stage sub-tasks based on task language instructions, enabling robots to better recognize long-horizon tasks. Keyframe discovery is then integrated into the multi-view masked autoencoder (MAE) architecture to enhance the robot's ability to sense critical task sequences, strengthening its multi-stage perception of long-horizon processes. Leveraging these dense rewards and multi-view representations, a robotic world model is constructed to efficiently plan long-horizon tasks, enabling the robot to reliably act through RL algorithms. Experiments on two representative benchmarks, RLBench and FurnitureBench, show that RoboHorizon outperforms state-of-the-art visual model-based RL methods, achieving a 23.35% improvement in task success rates on RLBench's 4 short-horizon tasks and a 29.23% improvement on 6 long-horizon tasks from RLBench and 3 furniture assembly tasks from FurnitureBench.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 11

Space and Time Continuous Physics Simulation From Partial Observations

Modern techniques for physical simulations rely on numerical schemes and mesh-refinement methods to address trade-offs between precision and complexity, but these handcrafted solutions are tedious and require high computational power. Data-driven methods based on large-scale machine learning promise high adaptivity by integrating long-range dependencies more directly and efficiently. In this work, we focus on fluid dynamics and address the shortcomings of a large part of the literature, which are based on fixed support for computations and predictions in the form of regular or irregular grids. We propose a novel setup to perform predictions in a continuous spatial and temporal domain while being trained on sparse observations. We formulate the task as a double observation problem and propose a solution with two interlinked dynamical systems defined on, respectively, the sparse positions and the continuous domain, which allows to forecast and interpolate a solution from the initial condition. Our practical implementation involves recurrent GNNs and a spatio-temporal attention observer capable of interpolating the solution at arbitrary locations. Our model not only generalizes to new initial conditions (as standard auto-regressive models do) but also performs evaluation at arbitrary space and time locations. We evaluate on three standard datasets in fluid dynamics and compare to strong baselines, which are outperformed both in classical settings and in the extended new task requiring continuous predictions.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 17, 2024

Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 24, 2021

UltraHorizon: Benchmarking Agent Capabilities in Ultra Long-Horizon Scenarios

Autonomous agents have recently achieved remarkable progress across diverse domains, yet most evaluations focus on short-horizon, fully observable tasks. In contrast, many critical real-world tasks, such as large-scale software development, commercial investment, and scientific discovery, unfold in long-horizon and partially observable scenarios where success hinges on sustained reasoning, planning, memory management, and tool use. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these long-horizon challenges, leaving a gap in systematic evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce UltraHorizon a novel benchmark that measures the foundational capabilities essential for complex real-world challenges. We use exploration as a unifying task across three distinct environments to validate these core competencies. Agents are designed in long-horizon discovery tasks where they must iteratively uncover hidden rules through sustained reasoning, planning, memory and tools management, and interaction with environments. Under the heaviest scale setting, trajectories average 200k+ tokens and 400+ tool calls, whereas in standard configurations they still exceed 35k tokens and involve more than 60 tool calls on average. Our extensive experiments reveal that LLM-agents consistently underperform in these settings, whereas human participants achieve higher scores, underscoring a persistent gap in agents' long-horizon abilities. We also observe that simple scaling fails in our task. To better illustrate the failure of agents, we conduct an in-depth analysis of collected trajectories. We identify eight types of errors and attribute them to two primary causes: in-context locking and functional fundamental capability gaps. https://github.com/StarDewXXX/UltraHorizon{Our code will be available here.}

Limits and Powers of Koopman Learning

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

  • 3 authors
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Jul 8, 2024

Continual Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with Hypernetworks

Effective planning in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) and model-predictive control (MPC) relies on the accuracy of the learned dynamics model. In many instances of MBRL and MPC, this model is assumed to be stationary and is periodically re-trained from scratch on state transition experience collected from the beginning of environment interactions. This implies that the time required to train the dynamics model - and the pause required between plan executions - grows linearly with the size of the collected experience. We argue that this is too slow for lifelong robot learning and propose HyperCRL, a method that continually learns the encountered dynamics in a sequence of tasks using task-conditional hypernetworks. Our method has three main attributes: first, it includes dynamics learning sessions that do not revisit training data from previous tasks, so it only needs to store the most recent fixed-size portion of the state transition experience; second, it uses fixed-capacity hypernetworks to represent non-stationary and task-aware dynamics; third, it outperforms existing continual learning alternatives that rely on fixed-capacity networks, and does competitively with baselines that remember an ever increasing coreset of past experience. We show that HyperCRL is effective in continual model-based reinforcement learning in robot locomotion and manipulation scenarios, such as tasks involving pushing and door opening. Our project website with videos is at this link https://rvl.cs.toronto.edu/blog/2020/hypercrl

  • 4 authors
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Sep 24, 2020

Option-aware Temporally Abstracted Value for Offline Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning

Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) offers a practical learning paradigm where goal-reaching policies are trained from abundant unlabeled (reward-free) datasets without additional environment interaction. However, offline GCRL still struggles with long-horizon tasks, even with recent advances that employ hierarchical policy structures, such as HIQL. By identifying the root cause of this challenge, we observe the following insights: First, performance bottlenecks mainly stem from the high-level policy's inability to generate appropriate subgoals. Second, when learning the high-level policy in the long-horizon regime, the sign of the advantage signal frequently becomes incorrect. Thus, we argue that improving the value function to produce a clear advantage signal for learning the high-level policy is essential. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective solution: Option-aware Temporally Abstracted value learning, dubbed OTA, which incorporates temporal abstraction into the temporal-difference learning process. By modifying the value update to be option-aware, the proposed learning scheme contracts the effective horizon length, enabling better advantage estimates even in long-horizon regimes. We experimentally show that the high-level policy extracted using the OTA value function achieves strong performance on complex tasks from OGBench, a recently proposed offline GCRL benchmark, including maze navigation and visual robotic manipulation environments.

  • 4 authors
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May 19 2

The Coupled Tidal Evolution of the Moons and Spins of Warm Exoplanets

Context: The Solar System giant planets harbour a wide variety of moons. Moons around exoplanets are plausibly similarly abundant, even though most of them are likely too small to be easily detectable with modern instruments. Moons are known to affect the long-term dynamics of the spin of their host planets; however, their influence on warm exoplanets (i.e.\ with moderately short periods of about 10 to 200~days), which undergo significant star-planet tidal dissipation, is still unclear. Aims: Here, we study the coupled dynamical evolution of exomoons and the spin dynamics of their host planets, focusing on warm exoplanets. Methods: Analytical criteria give the relevant dynamical regimes at play as a function of the system's parameters. Possible evolution tracks mostly depend on the hierarchy of timescales between the star-planet and the moon-planet tidal dissipations. We illustrate the variety of possible trajectories using self-consistent numerical simulations. Results: We find two principal results: i) Due to star-planet tidal dissipation, a substantial fraction of warm exoplanets naturally evolve through a phase of instability for the moon's orbit (the `Laplace plane' instability). Many warm exoplanets may have lost their moon(s) through this process. ii) Surviving moons slowly migrate inwards due to the moon-planet tidal dissipation until they are disrupted below the Roche limit. During their last migration stage, moons -- even small ones -- eject planets from their tidal spin equilibrium. Conclusions: The loss of moons through the Laplace plane instability may contribute to disfavour the detection of moons around close-in exoplanets. Moreover, moons (even those that have been lost) play a critical role in the final obliquities of warm exoplanets. Hence, the existence of exomoons poses a serious challenge in predicting the present-day obliquities of observed exoplanets.

  • 2 authors
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Oct 31

How to Train Your HiPPO: State Space Models with Generalized Orthogonal Basis Projections

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

  • 5 authors
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Jun 23, 2022